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We consider space-based radiation damage and its cumulative effect on detector dark counts for satellite-based silicon single-photon detectors, arising from natural radiation as well as from a nuclear disturbed environment caused by a high-altitude nuclear explosion.
Abstract Distributions of both native and invasive species are expected to shift under future climate. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to explore future habitats, but sources of uncertainty including novel climate conditions may reduce the reliability of future projections. We explore the potential spread of the invasive annual grass ventenata ( Ventenata dubia ) in the western United States under both current and future climate scenarios using boosted regression tree models and 30 global climate models (GCMs). We quantify novel climate conditions, prediction variability arising from both the SDMs and GCMs, and the agreement among GCMs. Results demonstrate that currently suitable habitat is concentrated inside the invaded range of the northwest, but substantial habitat exists outside the invaded range in the Southern Rockies and southwestern US mountains. Future suitability projections vary greatly among GCMs, but GCMs commonly projected decreased suitability in the invaded range and increased suitability along higher elevations of interior mountainous areas. Climate novelty did not appear to undermine the prediction reliability in many cases where the climate–species relationship was fully represented by the occurrence data. GCM‐derived variability resulting from variation in future cool season precipitation and temperature seasonality was greatest in the Rocky Mountains. SDM‐derived variability was higher in currently suitable habitat, and few GCMs projections agreed that these areas would contain future suitable habitat. However, while prediction variability was high, many GCM projections agreed that parts of the Rocky, Wasatch, and Uinta Mountains would contain highly suitable habitat in the future. As disturbances in the interior mountains occur in coming decades, reducing some natural barriers to invasion, land managers, and conservationists will need to monitor for ventenata in post‐disturbance environments. Changes to invasion potential may not play out for several decades, but results related to current potential may have applications for early detection and rapid response planning.
The potential of electricity-intensive chemical plants to engage in demand response (DR) initiatives in support of power grid operations has been the subject of many conceptual studies. In this work, using an industrially-relevant model of an air separation unit, we undertake an extensive simulation study of moving horizon (MH) rescheduling approaches, where we "close the scheduling loop" based on updated information regarding disturbances such as changes in electricity prices, ambient conditions and chemical product demand. Our study produces several unexpected findings regarding the non-periodic nature of rescheduling solutions, the impact of the accuracy of disturbance forecasts on the economics of DR scheduling, and on the interplay of simultaneously dealing with fluctuations on both the supply side (i.e., electricity prices) and the product demand side of the plant. Furthermore, we posit that the latter fluctuations pose significant limitations to the potential of a chemical plant to engage in DR.
The dataset includes the parameter and domain files, relevant output files, and scripts to generate simulations and perform analysis with Jupyter notebooks that support the manuscript Shuman, JK et al 2023 “Dynamic ecosystem assembly and escaping the “fire-trap” in the tropics: Insights from FATES_15.0.0”. We have adapted the fire-behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE, for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture, and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire burned area and its effects, which could fee back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period, but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m-1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m-1. The results support a positive grass-fire feedback across the region, and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Abstract. Fire is a fundamental part of the Earth system, with impacts on vegetation structure, biomass, and community composition, the latter mediated in part via key fire-tolerance traits, such as bark thickness. Due to anthropogenic climate change and land use pressure, fire regimes are changing across the world, and fire risk has already increased across much of the tropics. Projecting the impacts of these changes at global scales requires that we capture the selective force of fire on vegetation distribution through vegetation functional traits and size structure. We have adapted the fire behavior and effects module, SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE), for use with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a size-structured vegetation demographic model. We test how climate, fire regime, and fire-tolerance plant traits interact to determine the biogeography of tropical forests and grasslands. We assign different fire-tolerance strategies based on crown, leaf, and bark characteristics, which are key observed fire-tolerance traits across woody plants. For these simulations, three types of vegetation compete for resources: a fire-vulnerable tree with thin bark, a vulnerable deep crown, and fire-intolerant foliage; a fire-tolerant tree with thick bark, a thin crown, and fire-tolerant foliage; and a fire-promoting C4 grass. We explore the model sensitivity to a critical parameter governing fuel moisture and show that drier fuels promote increased burning, an expansion of area for grass and fire-tolerant trees, and a reduction of area for fire-vulnerable trees. This conversion to lower biomass or grass areas with increased fuel drying results in increased fire-burned area and its effects, which could feed back to local climate variables. Simulated size-based fire mortality for trees less than 20 cm in diameter and those with fire-vulnerable traits is higher than that for larger and/or fire-tolerant trees, in agreement with observations. Fire-disturbed forests demonstrate reasonable productivity and capture observed patterns of aboveground biomass in areas dominated by natural vegetation for the recent historical period but have a large bias in less disturbed areas. Though the model predicts a greater extent of burned fraction than observed in areas with grass dominance, the resulting biogeography of fire-tolerant, thick-bark trees and fire-vulnerable, thin-bark trees corresponds to observations across the tropics. In areas with more than 2500 mm of precipitation, simulated fire frequency and burned area are low, with fire intensities below 150 kW m−1, consistent with observed understory fire behavior across the Amazon. Areas drier than this demonstrate fire intensities consistent with those measured in savannas and grasslands, with high values up to 4000 kW m−1. The results support a positive grass–fire feedback across the region and suggest that forests which have existed without frequent burning may be vulnerable at higher fire intensities, which is of greater concern under intensifying climate and land use pressures. The ability of FATES to capture the connection between fire disturbance and plant fire-tolerance strategies in determining biogeography provides a useful tool for assessing the vulnerability and resilience of these critical carbon storage areas under changing conditions across the tropics.
Large disturbances to ecosystems can severely impact the stability of a region's natural resources, habitats, and outdoor recreation. Because extreme events can be large and relatively infrequent, they test institutional capacity to support recovery and restoration. Here, when hurricanes and other large-scale disturbances like wildfires occur, much of the impacted landscape receives little to no active management. Ecosystems are often allowed to either recover or transition without much direct intervention, and successional dynamics are sometimes altered by novel invasive species, management history, or other environmental changes. Recovery and restoration are especially challenging for landscapes with highly fragmented private ownership, such as the forests of the eastern US. Acting alone, non-industrial private forest landowners have little capacity to effectively respond to unexpected forest loss and to oversee forest recovery, as the scale of actions needed after extreme events may require cooperation across ownerships or jurisdictions.
This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Wi3 Mature hardwood (MHW). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Wi3 Mature hardwood (MHW) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Wisconsin Mature Hardwood site is located in the Washburn Ranger District of the northeastern section of Chequamegon National Forest. A member of the northern coniferous-deciduous biome, surveys from the mid-19th century indicate the region consisted of a mixed stand of red, white, and jack pines. After extensive timber harvesting, wildfires, and farming activity, the region turned into a fragmented mosaic of stands of various ages and composition. As an assemblage, the ten Wisconsin sites are indicative of the successional stages of development in the predominant stand types of a physically homogeneous landscape. The mature hardwood stand represents a typical naturally regenerated second-growth forest, free of anthropogenic disturbances for at least 70 years.
Machine learning (ML) is growing in popularity for various particle accelerator applications including anomaly detection such as faulty beam position monitor or RF fault identification, for non-invasive diagnostics, and for creating surrogate models. ML methods such as neural networks (NN) are useful because they can learn input-output relationships in large complex systems based on large data sets. Once they are trained, methods such as NNs give instant predictions of complex phenomenon, which makes their use as surrogate models especially appealing for speeding up large parameter space searches which otherwise require computationally expensive simulations. However, quickly time varying systems are challenging for ML-based approaches because the actual system dynamics quickly drifts away from the description provided by any fixed data set, degrading the predictive power of any ML method, and limits their applicability for real time feedback control of quickly time-varying accelerator components and beams. In contrast to ML methods, adaptive model-independent feedback algorithms are by design robust to un-modeled changes and disturbances in dynamic systems, but are usually local in nature and susceptible to local extrema. In this work, we propose that the combination of adaptive feedback and machine learning, adaptive machine learning (AML), is a way to combine the global feature learning power of ML methods such as deep neural networks with the robustness of model-independent control. We present an overview of several ML and adaptive control methods, their strengths and limitations, and an overview of AML approaches.
Coastal forests worldwide are vulnerable to a dramatic transition from upland to wetland as sea-level rise accelerates and regimes of precipitation and storms change. However, the biogeochemical impacts of shifting salinity and inundation disturbance that foreshadow forest to wetland state transitions are largely unknown. This experiment used a natural salinity gradient in a tidal creek in eastern Maryland, U.S.A., to examine how soil respiration and chemistry may change under novel salinity and inundation disturbance regimes. Soil monoliths were transplanted in a reciprocal design among plots varying in seawater exposure and elevation above the creek. We monitored the monoliths’ carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux for two years and performed soil chemical analyses at the end of the experiment. Soil CO 2 flux was affected by changing disturbance regimes and responses were dependent upon the salinity and inundation legacies associated with each study location. Lowland soil CO 2 flux was resistant to changing salinity and inundation disturbance, with transplanted soil monolith chemistry composition in between that of its origin and destination. Conversely, upland soil CO 2 flux was sensitive to changing salinity and inundation disturbance and remained suppressed throughout the 2-year study when exposed to wetter, saline conditions. Additionally, transplanted upland soil chemistry composition was like that of its destination, rather than origin, with upland soils displaying higher pH, base saturation, and nutrient availability relative to lowland soils. Here, we hypothesize that reductions in soil respiration rates were driven by loss of soil nutrients and osmotic and redox stress on microbial communities following exposure to seawater. Together, our results suggest that disturbance legacies shape coastal forest soil responses to changing salinity and inundation disturbance regimes. However, fully understanding the dependence of system responses on disturbance legacies requires future study across a variety of systems and spatial and temporal scales.
Dryland ecosystems are sensitive to perturbations and generally slow to recover post disturbance. The microorganisms residing in dryland soils are especially important as they contribute to soil structure and nutrient cycling. Disturbance can have particularly strong effects on dryland soil structure and function, yet the natural resistance and recovery of the microbial components of dryland soils has not been well documented. In this study, the recovery of surface soil bacterial communities from multiple physical and environmental disturbances is assessed. Samples were collected from three field sites in the vicinity of Moab, UT, United States, 6 to 7 years after physical and climate disturbance manipulations had been terminated, allowing for the assessment of community recovery. Additionally, samples were collected in a transect that included three habitat patches: the canopy zone soils under the dominant shrubs, the interspace soils that are colonized by biological soil crusts, and edge soils at the plot borders. Field site and habitat patch were significant factors structuring the bacterial communities, illustrating that sites and habitats harbored unique soil microbiomes. Across the different sites and disturbance treatments, there was evidence of significant bacterial community recovery, as bacterial biomass and diversity were not significantly different than control plots. There was, however, a small number of 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequence variants that distinguished particular treatments, suggesting that legacy effects of the disturbances still remained. Taken together, these data suggest that dryland bacterial communities may possess a previously unappreciated potential to recover within years of the original disturbance.
Subtropical evergreen broadleaf forest (SEBF) is experiencing and expected to suffer more frequent and severe drought events. However, how the hydraulic traits directly link to the mortality and recovery of SEBF trees remains unclear. In this study, we conducted a drought-rewatering experiment on tree seedlings of five dominant species to investigate how the hydraulic traits were related to tree mortality and the resistance and recovery of photosynthesis (A) and transpiration (E) under different drought severities. Species with greater embolism resistance (P 50 ) survived longer than those with the weaker P 50 . However, there was no general hydraulic threshold associated with tree mortality, with the lethal hydraulic failure varying from 64% to 93% loss of conductance. Further, the photosynthesis and transpiration of tree species with greater P 50 were more resistant to and recovered faster from drought than those with lower P 50 . Other plant traits could not explain the interspecific variation in tree mortality and drought resistance and recovery. These results highlight the unique importance of embolism resistance in driving carbon and water process under persistent drought across different trees in SEBF. The absence of multiple efficient drought strategies in SEBF seedlings implies the difficulty of natural seedling regeneration under future droughts, which often occurs after destructive disturbances (e.g., extreme drought events and typhoon), suggesting that this biome may be highly vulnerable to co-occurring climate extremes.
The primary controller of a grid-forming (GFM) inverter governs the internal reference voltage and angle, which enables the inverter to naturally synchronize and share power with the connected grid; however, during disturbances on the grid caused by, e.g., line faults, overloading, or frequency and phase shifts, a GFM inverter can be pushed into a current-limited operation to protect the device against thermal damage. This can lead to a windup of the internal reference frequency generated by the primary controller and cause a total loss of synchronism with the grid. Here, to make the primary controller of GFM inverters more robust against transient instability, this paper proposes a method that manipulates the reference signals governed by the primary controller by introducing the concept of fictitious power. The fictitious power counteracts the integrator windup in the primary controller, which enables the current-limited inverter to conceive a stable operating point. This method is benchmarked against five state-of-the-art GFM inverter stabilization methods to evaluate its stability-enhancing performance. Full-order electromagnetic-transient simulations and experimental results of a hardware inverter test setup validate the benefits of the method to improve the transient stability of GFM inverters in the face of grid disturbances.
This zipfile includes datasets and codes that were used to produce the results in the paper entitled Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming. Datasets include: 1. Windthrow density across the entire Amazon - GIS shapefile format 2. Current ERA 5 mean afternoon convective available potential energy (CAPE) (1990-2019) - Remote Sensing TIFF format 3. Estimated future mean CAPE from 10 models in CMIP 6 (2070-2099) - Remote Sensing TIFF format 4. Python codes in jupyter notebook and processed datasets used to generate Fig.2a and Table 1 in the paper. You will need to use Jupyter Notebook and Python for accessing and reading the codes. Please contact Yanlei Feng (ylfeng@berkeley.edu) for any questions. Paper associated with this dataset: Feng, Y., Negrón-Juárez, R.I., Romps, D.M. and Chambers, J.Q., 2023. Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming. Nature communications, 14(1), p.101.
Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.
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Resonance ionization mass spectrometry is a powerful tool for in-situ measurements of elemental ratios in micrometer-sized spent fuel samples. By measuring the concentration of the fission product Zr we provide a framework for determining fuel burnup while simultaneously considering the 239 Pu fission fraction. Here, the analyzed spent fuel samples were taken from different fuels and distances from the fuel pellets’ edge. Results show a burnup enhancement at the edge of a fuel pellet of 180–220% compared to the center of the pellet. By comparing the concentration of the anthropogenic 93 Zr to the naturally occurring Zr isotopes, any influence of non-fissiogenic Zr or disturbing neutron capture reactions can be ruled out. This established 93 Zr as a new tool to measure fuel burnup.
Abstract Forests are a large carbon sink and could serve as natural climate solutions that help moderate future warming. Thus, establishing forest carbon baselines is essential for tracking climate‐mitigation targets. Western US forests are natural climate solution hotspots but are profoundly threatened by drought and altered disturbance regimes. How these factors shape spatial patterns of carbon storage and carbon change over time is poorly resolved. Here, we estimate live and dead forest carbon density in 19 forested western US ecoregions with national inventory data (2005–2019) to determine: (a) current carbon distributions, (b) underpinning drivers, and (c) recent trends. Potential drivers of current carbon included harvest, wildfire, insect and disease, topography, and climate. Using random forests, we evaluated driver importance and relationships with current live and dead carbon within ecoregions. We assessed trends using linear models. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Southwest (SW) ecoregions were most and least carbon dense, respectively. Climate was an important carbon driver in the SW and Lower Rockies. Fire reduced live and increased dead carbon, and was most important in the Upper Rockies and California. No ecoregion was unaffected by fire. Harvest and private ownership reduced carbon, particularly in the PNW. Since 2005, live carbon declined across much of the western US, likely from drought and fire. Carbon has increased in PNW ecoregions, likely recovering from past harvest, but recent record fire years may alter trajectories. Our results provide insight into western US forest carbon function and future vulnerabilities, which is vital for effective climate change mitigation strategies.
The protection systems (circuit breakers, relays, reclosers, and fuses) of the electric grid are the primary component responding to resilience events, ranging from common storms to extreme events. The protective equipment must detect and operate very quickly, generally <0.25 seconds, to remove faults in the system before the system goes unstable or additional equipment is damaged. The burden on protection systems is increasing as the complexity of the grid increases; renewable energy resources, particularly inverter-based resources (IBR) and increasing electrification all contribute to a more complex grid landscape for protection devices. In addition, there are increasing threats from natural disasters, aging infrastructure, and manmade attacks that can cause faults and disturbances in the electric grid. The challenge for the application of AI into power system protection is that events are rare and unpredictable. In order to improve the resiliency of the electric grid, AI has to be able to learn from very little data. During an extreme disaster, it may not be important that the perfect, most optimal action is taken, but AI must be guaranteed to always respond by moving the grid toward a more stable state during unseen events.