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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Interactive Visualizations for Communicating Compliance and Sustainability Statements in Annual Site Environmental Reports - 20419

The annual reports of organizations are a recurring type of public disclosure that communicates what an organization has done and/or plans to do. Worldwide, organizations use annual reports as powerful instruments for communication that is rich in narrative content and visuals. From the perspective of the leadership of an organization, statutory annual reports are communication devices to stakeholders. By analogy, from the perspective of stakeholders, the annual reports are learning devices that presents stakeholders with contents to generate knowledge about an organization. We have chosen the online accessible U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Annual Site Environmental Reports (ASERs) as a collection of resources for communicating and learning the environmental management strategies on environmental compliance and environmental sustainability. Environmental Compliance 'consists of regulatory compliance and monitoring programs that implement federal, state, and local requirements, agreements, and permits.' Environmental Sustainability 'promotes and integrates initiatives such as energy and natural resource conservation, waste minimization, green remediation, and the use of sustainable products and services.' Interactive visualizations of textual data designed with visual analytics software can allow stakeholders to interact with statements on the environmental management strategies by performing diverse actions that promote learning. These actions include annotating, comparing, filtering, navigating, selecting and sharing relevant statements. We expect that the possibility of these multiple actions in an interactive manner help stakeholders to learn more effectively about the environmental strategies at U.S. DOE sites. The current case study for the project is a collection of 1,894 annotated (value-added) statements (sentence text) from the eight chapters of the 2017 Savanah River Site (SRS) annual site environmental report. The preliminary interactive visualizations are available online. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reduced methane recovery at high pressure due to methane trapping in shale nanopores

By 2050, shale gas production is expected to exceed three-quarters of total US natural gas production. However, current unconventional hydrocarbon gas recovery rates are only around 20%. Maximizing production of this natural resource thus necessitates improved understanding of the fundamental mechanisms underlying hydrocarbon retention within the nanoporous shale matrix. In this study, we integrated molecular simulation with high-pressure small-angle neutron scattering (SANS), an experimental technique uniquely capable of characterizing methane behavior in situ within shale nanopores at elevated pressures. Samples were created using Marcellus shale, a gas-generative formation comprising the largest natural gas field in the United States. Our results demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional wisdom that elevated drawdown pressure increases methane recovery, a higher peak pressure led to the trapping of dense, liquid-like methane in sub-2 nm radius nanopores, which comprise more than 90% of the measured nanopore volume, due to irreversible deformation of the kerogen matrix. These findings have critical implications for pressure management strategies to maximize hydrocarbon recovery, as well as broad implications for fluid behavior under confinement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A Canadian Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada, and a companion report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Selected Publicly Available Geothermal Exploration Data Gaps

As part of a United States Department of Energy (DOE) supported retrospective analysis of DOE's Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) projects, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) compiled and analyzed publicly available geothermal exploration datasets to identify and highlight data gaps in areas prospective for hosting geothermal resources. The analysis was intended to understand the existing geographic coverage of selected datasets commonly utilized both by the PFA projects and geothermal developers during resource assessments including geologic mapping, temperature gradient drilling, and aeromagnetic, gravimetric, and lidar surveys. Results indicate that broad areas of the western United States estimated to have geothermal potential lack sufficient geologic and geophysical coverage necessary for even regional resource exploration. The study directly informed the recent Geoscience Data Acquisition for Western Nevada, or GeoDAWN - which united DOE's Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior to assist U.S. needs for energy and critical minerals. The study also has the potential to inform public investment in further data acquisition for characterization of the Earth both for geothermal and other natural resource assessments.

data↗
DOE OSTI2021

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A U.S. Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy, and a companion report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technologist in Residence for Advanced Manufacturing and Materials in Unconventional Oil and Gas Equipment and Infrastructure

The DOE Technologist in Residence (TIR) program pairs a senior technical staff member from a National Laboratory (Lab Technologist), and a senior technical staff member(s) from a clean energy manufacturing company or consortium of companies (Industry Technologist). Each technologist may represent single or multiple national laboratories, or single or multiple companies. These pairs of Lab and industry technologists work together for a period of 18 to 24 months to accomplish several goals: 1) Identify the participating company’s (or companies’) technical priorities and challenges, and the resources and capabilities in DOE’s National Laboratories that may be highly suitable to address them; 2) Propose collaborative R&D efforts to develop science-based solutions to the company’s (or companies’) most strategic scientific, technological, and business issues; and 3) Develop a general framework agreement and begin developing specific scopes of work for the proposed collaborative R&D efforts. The proposed R&D will then take place outside of the program and will not use TIR program funds. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Pioneer Natural Resources were awarded a TIR project by DOE in late 2016 and the CRADA component of the project was initiated in 2017. This report describes work performed under the CRADA agreement between 2017 and 2020.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Impacts of Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower

The goal of this report is to help license applicants, resource agencies, and other members of the hydropower community involved in closed-loop pumped storage hydropower permitting and licensing process, focus the scope of environmental reviews, and more quickly identify impacts with project nexus and potential mitigation measures for these impacts. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is an energy storage technology that uses energy to pump water up from a lower reservoir to an upper reservoir where water is stored until electricity is needed and the water is released to a lower reservoir passing through turbines. Closed-loop PSH—PSH that is not continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature—is one of the lowest greenhouse gas emitting energy storage technologies and is therefore a critical part of the transition to renewable energy (Simon et al. 2023). Proposals for closed-loop PSH facilities in the United States currently account for more than 40% of original licenses and 99% of potential generation capacity in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydropower licensing pipeline (Johnson et al. 2023). While closed-loop PSH facilities can have lower environmental impacts than open-loop PSH facilities, no closed-loop facilities have been constructed in the United States to enable direct accounting of project impacts and efficacy of mitigations. Many proposals for closed-loop PSH submitted to FERC are abandoned early in the permitting and licensing process prior to license applications and environmental assessments, so there is little documentation describing potential project impacts and proposed mitigations. The newness of closed-loop PSH proposals in the United States may mean that tribal, federal, and state agencies with authorities for cultural and natural resources protection and management involved in the FERC licensing process may not have experience with closed-loop PSH regulation. Moreover, many proposed closed-loop PSH facilities are in areas that do not have high concentrations of conventional hydropower, so these agencies may also be unfamiliar with the FERC hydropower licensing process. The goal of this report is to help license applicants, resource agencies, and other members of the hydropower community focus the scope of environmental review for the closed-loop PSH development, licensing, and federal authorization process enabling quicker identification of potential impacts, mitigations, and situations where mitigation may not be possible. We found that environmental impacts of closed-loop PSH are highly site-specific, and generalizations about the types of environmental impacts across closed-loop PSH projects are difficult to make. Environmental impacts of closed-loop PSH are like those for open-loop PSH with a few exceptions including water sourcing, which can lead to delays and contention due to potential complexities with water rights, impacts to aquatic resources, and greenhouse gas emission potential. Cultural resource impacts were commonly reported in National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents reviewed and discussed in interviews, but in many cases such impacts cannot be mitigated.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating 3 decades of precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin from a high-resolution regional climate model

Abstract. Convection-permitting regional climate models (RCMs) have recently become tractable for applications at multi-decadal timescales. These types of models have tremendous utility for water resource studies, but better characterization of precipitation biases is needed, particularly for water-resource-critical mountain regions, where precipitation is highly variable in space, observations are sparse, and the societal water need is great. This study examines 34 years (1987–2020) of RCM precipitation from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; v3.8.1), using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS; CFSv2) initial and lateral boundary conditions and a 1 km × 1 km innermost grid spacing. The RCM is centered over the Upper Colorado River basin, with a focus on the high-elevation, 750 km2 East River watershed (ERW), where a variety of high-impact scientific activities are currently ongoing. Precipitation is compared against point observations (Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL), gridded climate datasets (Newman, Livneh, and PRISM), and Bayesian reconstructions of watershed mean precipitation conditioned on streamflow and high-resolution snow remote-sensing products. We find that the cool-season precipitation percent error between WRF and 23 SNOTEL gauges has a low overall bias (x^ = 0.25 %, s = 13.63 %) and that WRF has a higher percent error during the warm season (x^ = 10.37 %, s = 12.79 %). Warm-season bias manifests as a high number of low-precipitation days, though the low-resolution or SNOTEL gauges limit some of the conclusions that can be drawn. Regional comparisons between WRF precipitation accumulation and three different gridded datasets show differences on the order of ± 20 %, particularly at the highest elevations and in keeping with findings from other studies. We find that WRF agrees slightly better with the Bayesian reconstruction of precipitation in the ERW compared to the gridded precipitation datasets, particularly when changing SNOTEL densities are taken into account. The conclusions are that the RCM reasonably captures orographic precipitation in this region and demonstrates that leveraging additional hydrologic information (streamflow and snow remote-sensing data) improves the ability to characterize biases in RCM precipitation fields. Error characteristics reported in this study are essential for leveraging the RCM model outputs for studies of past and future climates and water resource applications. The methods developed in this study can be applied to other watersheds and model configurations. Hourly 1 km × 1 km precipitation and other meteorological outputs from this dataset are publicly available and suitable for a wide variety of applications.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Policy Brief: Integrated Nexus Policies for Sustainable and Resilient Energy, Water, and Food Systems

Population growth, climate change, and resource depletion put food and water security and energy supply at risk. Sustainable and resilient water, food, and energy systems are crucial to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and increase resilience to global health crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This policy brief describes the challenges and presents proposals regarding synergies in the land, water, and energy nexus to maximize net environmental, health, and social benefits. First, this brief focuses on water desalination, where the nexus approach helps to balance the full cost, including externalities, of desalinated water, and its socio-economic benefits. Second, this policy brief highlights nutrition-sensitive food policies that improve health and contribute to the preservation of natural resources. Finally, this brief presents challenges and opportunities for developing renewable energy.

energy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unraveling complex causal processes that affect sustainability requires more integration between empirical and modeling approaches

Scientists seek to understand the causal processes that generate sustainability problems and determine effective solutions. Yet, causal inquiry in nature–society systems is hampered by conceptual and methodological challenges that arise from nature–society interdependencies and the complex dynamics they create. Here, we demonstrate how sustainability scientists can address these challenges and make more robust causal claims through better integration between empirical analyses and process- or agent-based modeling. To illustrate how these different epistemological traditions can be integrated, we present four studies of air pollution regulation, natural resource management, and the spread of COVID-19. The studies show how integration can improve empirical estimates of causal effects, inform future research designs and data collection, enhance understanding of the complex dynamics that underlie observed temporal patterns, and elucidate causal mechanisms and the contexts in which they operate. These advances in causal understanding can help sustainability scientists develop better theories of phenomena where social and ecological processes are dynamically intertwined and prior causal knowledge and data are limited. The improved causal understanding also enhances governance by helping scientists and practitioners choose among potential interventions, decide when and how the timing of an intervention matters, and anticipate unexpected outcomes. Methodological integration, however, requires skills and efforts of all involved to learn how members of the respective other tradition think and analyze nature–society systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Emerging technologies and radical collaboration to advance predictive understanding of watershed hydrobiogeochemistry

Increasing population and resource-intensive lifestyles are driving enhanced demands for clean water, food, and energy. In parallel, land-use change, climate change, and perturbations—including drought, floods, fires, and early snowmelt—are significantly reshaping interactions within watersheds throughout the world. While watersheds are the Earth's key functional unit for assessing and managing water resources, hydrological processes in watersheds also mediate biogeochemical interactions that support terrestrial life on Earth (Kaushal, Gold, Bernal, & Tank, 2018; National Research Council, 2012). Although society is dependent upon clean water availability, tractable prediction of watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, including watershed response to perturbations, remains a challenge. Central to the challenge are complex, multiscale interactions between plants, microorganisms, organic matter, minerals, dissolved constituents, and migrating fluids, which occur within and across bedrock-to-canopy compartments and along extensive lateral gradients of a watershed. Several recent community reports have synthesized formidable challenges associated with watershed science and technology (AGU, 2018; Blöschl et al., 2019). Here, we discuss emerging technologies and collaboration modes that are critical for developing generalizable insights about and predictive understanding of complex watershed hydrobiogeochemical behavior, which are important for underpinning optimized natural resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate

Urban areas and the supply networks that support their resource use are inherently multisectoral systems composed of infrastructural, environmental, and socio-institutional components. These systems are vulnerable to accelerating and interacting stresses from climate change, population growth, resource scarcity, and land-use pressure at the same time as they have a major influence on regional and global systems. For instance, a majority of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, food consumption, and economic activity can be attributed to urban areas. Urban areas are highly heterogenous, both across and within cities in terms of their socio-demographic, environmental, and infrastructural characteristics. This heterogeneity shapes how urban systems interact and co-evolve and contributes to different economic, environmental, and health outcomes for communities within urban areas. Urban heterogeneity also generates differential vulnerabilities to stressors and differential capacity for adapting to change. The evolution of urban space is thus critical in shaping how human societies respond to global change as they seek to improve resilience to stressors, support prosperous and equitable communities, and use natural resources in a sustainable manner. Developing fundamental scientific understanding of urban heterogeneity and system interactions across sectors and scales is critical for mapping the resilience, sustainability, and equity implications of alternative future pathways. On July 2021 the MSD Urban Systems Working Group organized this workshop to provide a venue for coordination and identification of shared objectives, research themes, and major knowledge gaps, as well as developing a shared strategy for addressing these gaps. This report summarizes the outcomes of this workshop.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concentrating Rare Earth Elements in Coal mine drainage Using Coal Combustion Products through Abandoned Mine Land Reclamation

Rare earth elements (REEs) (including scandium, yttrium and a group of 15 lanthanides) are often considered to be critical components in the productions of renewable energy hardware, electric vehicles, health care and military equipment, and consumer electronic products. The demand of REEs has been projected to be growing at an annual rate of 5-9% in the next 25 years. In 2011, the global demand of total rare earth oxides (REOs) was estimated to be approximately 105,000 tons, which is expected to grow to 210,000 tons by 2025. China overwhelmingly dominates the current worldwide rare earth productions but has strategically restricted its exports, causing significant instability for the global market. In response to the increasing demand for REEs and the supply dominance of China, identifying alternative sources of REEs has become a critical issue for the United States and other countries. Coal, coal ash, and coal mine drainage (CMD) are considered to be the alternative sources of REEs. In the U.S., high REE concentrations have been reported to be closely associated with coal deposits, including the Appalachian Basins. When surface and/or groundwater come in contact with geologic strata containing sulfide minerals exposed by coal mining, the accelerated oxidation of sulfide minerals in the presence of ferric iron and/or oxygen can produce sulfuric acid. The process promotes the weathering of REE-bearing rocks and minerals in the host geologic strata. Compared to average river water and seawater, the concentrations of REEs can be orders of magnitude higher in CMD. In this study, we demonstrated a trap-extract-precipitate (TEP) process that can effectively recover REEs from CMD. The three-stage TEP process uses alkaline industrial by-products to capture REEs from CMD and then applies an extraction/precipitation procedure to produce a feedstock that can be economically processed to produce marketable rare earth oxides. The alkaline industrial by-products tested in this study include the residual from a water softening process (DRWP sludge) and two types of stabilized flue gas desulfurization materials (sFGDs). sFGD material is a mixture of lime (CaO) and two coal combustion by-products, calcium sulfite FGD by-product and fly ash. The objectives of this study are to (1) validate the effectiveness and feasibility; (2) determine mechanisms controlling the rare earth recovery, (3) quantify the associated economic and environmental benefits, and (4) evaluate the full-scale application. To achieve these objectives, tasks to be carried out in this proposed project are organized into three phases. In the first phase, the research team collaborated with Ohio Department of Natural Resources, American Electric Power, The Wilds (a nonprofit wildlife conservation organization), and a private landowner to carry out field investigations aimed to screen and evaluate the seasonal changes of rare earths in the CMD discharges that have high recovery potentials. Next, the recovery of REEs from CMD was tested using a series of lab-scale column and batch tests under, respectively, percolation and completely mixed conditions. Results obtained from these lab-scale studies show that all three tested solids are very effective in retaining REEs. Over 98% of the CMD REEs that contacted the solids were captured before the solids exhausted their neutralization capacities. We also determined an extraction process using a non-acid, organic ligand extraction solution that can effectively remobilize the retained REEs from the spent solids (over 90%). The REE concentrate (>7.5 wt. % of total REEs) is then formed in an aeration process. The TEP process uses environmentally benign industrial by-products and a naturally-occurring organic ligand to mitigate CMD and recover REEs. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) was carried out in the third phase. The engineering-economic costs and net energy, net CO2 emissions, and water and other requirements were investigated to understand the economic and environmental implications of this process. This work uses mass and energy balances from laboratory-scale experiments to estimate the economic costs and environmental impacts. The results suggest that passive treatment systems that use DRWP sludge are preferred over those that use sFGD material, because of lower economic costs ($89,300/yr with a unit cost of $86/gT-REE vs. $89,800/yr, or $278/gT-REE) and improved environmental performance across all indicators from two different impact assessment methods. These differences are largely attributable to the larger capacity of DRWP sludge in the passive treatment application. We envision this TEP process can be integrated with abandoned mine land (AML) reclamation to create an approach that can add economic incentives for AML reclamation, remediate CMD discharge, and eliminate public safety hazards and threats to local environment and ecological systems posed by AMLs. It can restore lands and communities that are adversely impacted by legacy mining.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aridification of Colorado River Basin's Snowpack Regions Has Driven Water Losses Despite Ameliorating Effects of Vegetation

Abstract The Colorado River Basin is an important natural resource for the semi‐arid southwestern United States (US), where it provides water to more than 40 million people. While nearly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming has occurred across this region from the 1880s to 2021, climate models show little agreement in the precipitation change during the same historical period, with no trend in the mean of the latest (sixth) generation of Global Climate Models. As such, here we focus on how the CO 2 increase and associated anthropogenic warming over the historical period has impacted runoff across the Colorado Basin. We find that the Colorado Basin's runoff over the historical period has decreased by 8.1% per degree Celsius of warming (°C −1 ). However, the magnitude of this sensitivity is reduced to 6.8% °C −1 when considering vegetation response to historical CO 2 . For present‐day conditions, this translates to runoff reductions of 10.3% due to anthropogenic increases in both temperature and CO 2 since 1880. We demonstrate that Colorado Basin's natural flow has been decreased by roughly the storage of Lake Mead during the 2000–2021 megadrought due to this long term anthropogenic influence, suggesting the basin's first shortage in 2021 would likely not have occurred without anthropogenic warming. We further show warming has led to disproportionate aridification in snowpack regions, causing runoff to decline at double the rate relative to non‐snowpack regions. Thus, despite only making up ∼30% of the basin's drainage area, 86% of runoff decreases in the Colorado Basin is driven by water loss in snowpack regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technical Feasibility of Recovering Critical Minerals from Oil and Gas Industry Produced Water

Economic recovery of critical minerals from solid and liquid streams produced from natural resource extraction operations including Oil and Gas production, Mining, geothermal, and other industries can help alleviate shortage of the minerals important to industry. It is important to develop techniques for extraction that can be utilized at large scale to be economically viable, and to minimize waste products that require special disposal procedures. NETL and Participant will collaborate to develop and evaluate at the lab-scale, a process to recover and concentrate critical minerals from oil and gas industry produced water using a combination of physical and chemical methods, so that it may be converted into a valuable product. This effort promotes a circular economy by converting a waste stream into marketable products.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water Temperature, Prey Concentration and Salmonid Density Influence Daily Growth of Wild Juvenile Salmonids in Tributaries of the Upper Salmon River, Idaho ( USA )

ABSTRACT Theory, experiments and field studies indicate that the somatic growth rate of freshwater consumers is shaped by the individual, additive and multiplicative effects of multiple factors, including consumer size and condition, temperature, prey resources and biotic interactions. While our understanding of how these factors affect wild populations of freshwater consumers is improving, the topic remains poorly studied, especially with respect to mobile species. Here, we report on an 8‐year, seven‐stream ( n = 49 stream‐year combinations) observational study examining the individual and interactive effects of invertebrate prey concentration (F, mg/m 3 ), mean daily water temperature (T, °C) and juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) density (D, fish/100 m 2 ) on summer daily growth rates (%/d) of mobile, anadromous, juvenile Chinook salmon (age‐0+, n = 382) and sub‐yearling (age‐0+, n = 61) and yearling (age‐1+) steelhead trout ( O. mykiss , n = 70) rearing in cold (mean daily summer: 12.1°C, range: 4.2°C–16.7°C) mountain tributaries of the Salmon River basin in central Idaho (USA). AIC c model selection indicated that daily juvenile salmonid growth positively correlated with water temperature, prey biomass concentration, local juvenile Chinook density and the interaction between water temperature and food but with species and age‐specific differences. Water temperature was a covariate in all top‐ranked models, with daily growth (%/day) rate increasing (0.05%–0.23%/d) linearly with mean daily summer water temperature. In addition to a direct positive relationship with daily growth rate, there was evidence that prey concentration positively interacted with water temperature to accelerate daily growth (F × T). The positive relationship between juvenile salmonid daily growth rate and juvenile Chinook density is difficult to explain and could result from confounding factors. The individual success observed in these streams may contribute to population‐level benefits for the focal consumers, as prey‐rich, warm summers may result in larger individuals with higher energy reserves at the end of the summer/autumn growing season, contributing to improved overwinter survival. Our results, taken in combination with evidence from models, experiments and observational studies, have climate change implications. Current and predicted increases in water temperature will necessitate higher rates of prey consumption by aquatic ectothermic consumers to offset accelerated metabolic demands. Thus, to improve the resilience of mobile freshwater consumers in a warming climate, we suggest that natural resource managers not only consider physical and chemical habitat conditions but also biotic conditions, including the spatiotemporal quantity and quality of prey resources.

Kiffney, Peter. M. [Fish Ecology, Northwest Fisher↗
DOE OSTI2023

Roads to Removal: Options for Carbon Dioxide Removal in the United States

Our analysis shows it is feasible for the United States to remove a staggering amount of CO 2 from the air—this will be critical to becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Our comprehensive, first-of-its-kind, county-resolution analysis indicates that our country can accomplish this goal by relying on demonstrated technology, natural resources, and workforces we already have. Additionally, ongoing technology development can lower costs, shorten timelines, and deliver new solutions. Our analysis evaluated how we can use forests, cropland soils, and waste biomass, along with purpose-built machines, to get us to net-zero. Further, we considered community impacts and identified locations where certain solutions could be uniquely beneficial or potentially counterproductive. Our findings enable decisionmakers to weigh both opportunities and constraints and to decide what roads to use to meet our national climate goal for net-zero CO 2 emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗