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DOE OSTI2025

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Examining the Net Revenue and Downstream Flow Impact Trade-Offs for a Network of Cascading, Small-Scale Hydropower Facilities: Preprint

In this work, we used a price-taker model to investigate the trade-offs between net revenue and downstream flow impacts for a network of small, cascading hydro facilities. The network consisted of 36 facilities, each with a small amount of local storage (between 2 and 45 minutes). Generator sizes ranged between 0.5 and 1 MW, nominal, and the total capacity of the network was 33.5 MW. We used a multi-integer linear programing model to maximize the net revenue of the combined network subject to operating and environmental constraints. Net revenue optimizations relied on historic price data, and dry, typical, and wet years were studied to help ensure robustness. Energy and ancillary service sales were included in the net revenue calculations, and both unit commitment and dispatch simulations were performed. We found that limiting the downstream flows to ±50% of the river’s natural flows had a negligible impact on net revenues (<1% reduction), irrespective of hydrologic conditions, and even when downstream flows were limited to ±5%, net revenues were only impacted by 4%. These outcomes are significant because they demonstrate how an array of small-scale hydropower facilities can be operated to have minimal impact on natural stream flows—addressing a critical environmental concern.

downstream flow↗

DOE OSTI2022

Net Zero World Initiative: Accelerating Global Energy System Decarbonization

The United States, partner countries and philanthropies are joining forces to accelerate the transition to clean, secure energy systems and build a Net Zero World. The Net Zero World Initiative leverages expertise across U.S. government agencies and Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, in partnership with other governments and philanthropies, to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. This whole-of-government approach supports countries committed to raising their climate ambitions by creating and implementing highly tailored, actionable technical and investment strategies that put net zero within reach. The Net Zero World Initiative enables country partners to harness the power and technical expertise of U.S. and international industry, think tanks, and universities.

clean energy investment strategies↗

DOE OSTI2023

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

State-by-state energy-water-land-health impacts of the US net-zero emissions goal

As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. In this study, we show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170–200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16–29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120–210 km 3 /year), avoided air pollution damages (220–300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300–500 thousand km 2 ). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The pursuit of net-positive sustainability for industrial decarbonization with hybrid energy systems

We report signatories of the Paris Agreement are set to miss their climate targets. The net-zero pledges announced to date across many countries and private industries are insufficient to achieve carbon neutrality, which requires implementation of far-reaching and significantly scaled-up climate-positive actions. All technology options that pertain to deep decarbonization and carbon removal must be part of the mitigation portfolio. Transformative action plans must be established in which every individual/organization around the globe is an actor of changes in relation to net-zero goals. Such plans must involve governmental policy support but also encourage voluntary efforts to boost innovations, investments, initiatives, and behavioral changes. Recognition of these efforts is made quantifiable with the concepts of carbon handprint and net positivity. This paper presents a carbon handprint perspective on characterizing the environmental benefits of hybrid energy systems (HESs)—a widely applicable solution to cleaner production leveraging the capabilities of a portfolio of low-carbon energy sources—that provide heat and electricity to industrial processes. First, the carbon handprint and net positivity concepts and their calculation approach are introduced. The state of the art of HES-enabled industrial cogeneration is then surveyed, and the greenhouse gas emission intensities of different energy sources that power HESs are compared. Next, drawing on a case study about a US chemical facility's voluntary initiative to explore replacing its fossil fuel–based cogeneration infrastructure with a clean energy–generated HES, several technically viable scenarios are evaluated—especially those with small modular nuclear reactors—to illustrate how the positive-thinking handprint approach helps encourage and inform the search for widespread influence pathways in pursuit of net-positive sustainability. Finally, current knowledge gaps in the case study are identified, and opportunities to scale up the proposed handprint-based analysis are outlined with consideration of an expanded role of HESs in fulfilling climate objectives.It is envisioned that like-minded decision makers in the industry sector and beyond will adopt this perspective and act synergistically to enhance their environmental stewardship through voluntary actions and make greater contributions to the planet's climate future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation and (Inverse Modified) Error Analysis for Implicitly Templated ODE-Nets

We focus on learning unknown dynamics from data using ODE-nets templated on implicit numerical initial value problem solvers. First, we perform inverse modified error analysis of the ODE-nets using unrolled implicit schemes for ease of interpretation. It is shown that training an ODE-net using an unrolled implicit scheme returns a close approximation of an inverse modified differential equation (IMDE). In addition, we establish a theoretical basis for hyperparameter selection when training such ODE-nets, whereas current strategies usually treat numerical integration of ODE-nets as a black box. We thus formulate an adaptive algorithm which monitors the level of error and adapts the number of (unrolled) implicit solution iterations during the training process, so that the error of the unrolled approximation is less than the current learning loss. This helps accelerate training while maintaining accuracy. Several numerical experiments are performed to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed algorithm compared to nonadaptive unrollings and validate the theoretical analysis. Here, we also note that this approach naturally allows for incorporating partially known physical terms in the equations, giving rise to what is termed “gray box” identification.

ODE-nets↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gasification of Coal and Biomass: The Route to Net-Negative-Carbon Power and Hydrogen

One promising process that is a candidate for meeting the goals of the US Department of Energy’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative is to gasify a mixture of coal and biomass to yield a syngas, which can have CO2 removed and then be used to produce hydrogen as well as an off-gas that can be used to flexibly produce power. This concept would overall be carbon net-negative and readily meet the 21st Century Power Plant initiative targets of smaller scale MW generation, high ramp rates and turndown, feedstock flexibility, and high efficiency—at a reasonable cost. Moreover, adding the large-scale production of “ultra-green” hydrogen yields a system tailored for the coming hydrogen economy, providing long-term energy storage and an attractive co-product for sale. The objective of the work being led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Bechtel Corporation (Bechtel), Gas Technology Institute (GTI), Hamilton Mauer International, Inc. (HMI), Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), NexantECA, Inc. (Nexant), and Wärtsilä, is to perform a front-end design and engineering (FEED) study on an oxygen-blown gasification system coupled with water-gas shift, pre-combustion CO2 capture, and pressure-swing adsorption working off a coal/biomass mix to yield high-purity hydrogen and a fuel off-gas that can generate power. Several designs are being considered that will be capable of producing 50 MW net from a flexible generator, over 8500 kg/hr of hydrogen, and net-negative CO2 emissions, at an efficiency of 50% net HHV. The plant would be hosted at an NPPD site, where opportunities for enhanced oil recovery and sequestration have been investigated and the need for low-carbon power and hydrogen is imminent. The principal biomass to be used is corn stover—prevalent in Nebraska where the plant will be located—mixed with Powder River Basin (PRB) coal, necessitating a gasifier that can use this feedstock and be flexible to allow other types. Waste plastics will also be reviewed for use. Two oxygen-blown gasifiers have been identified as candidates that have done testing with biomass including corn stover: the GTI gasifier—a high-pressure, fluidized-bed type—and HMI’s, a lower pressure moving-bed type. Both have relative advantages that were investigated in the Phase I design study, with a resultant down select of one system for which the FEED will be performed in Phase II. The technical tasks for the project are: • Design Development: Completion of design activities necessary to provide inputs for the FEED study. Multiple design cases will be assessed with the selection of the optimal one for the FEED. • Investment Case Preparation: Development of the draft investment case for the proposed process with business cases performed for the proposed host site and two other locations. • Host Site Selection: Evaluation of the two potential host sites within NPPD’s portfolio to select the preferred candidate based on technical, economic, and environmental considerations. • Environmental Information Volume (EIV) Development: Completion of the EIV for the host site. • FEED Study: Completion of a FEED study based on the design selected in Phase I. A Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analysis will also be performed for the process. • Update Investment Case: Finalization of the investment case based on findings from the FEED. The advantages of the proposed project are significant. Having an engaged U.S. power utility willing to provide a host site that will produce energy from coal plus a deep and experienced team is critical; the process meets all the goals of DOE’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative at an estimated total plant cost of ~$880M and a production cost of hydrogen of ~$2/kg-H2 while producing net-negative carbon power. If developed, this process has real commercial potential in the United States—supported by EPRI’s initial review of the considerable interest from selected U.S. utilities—and elsewhere around the globe. The process has fewer environmental hurdles compared to other concepts, lowering regulatory and protest risks—providing a pathway to preserving the viability of a critical indigenous energy source by transforming its use to match a changing world. This presentation outlines the motivation for the effort, summarizes project plans, work completed to date, results of the Phase I effort and, and detailed work scope for the remainder of the project in the Phase II FEED effort.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Net-Zero Carbon Microgrids for DOE’s National Laboratory Facilities: A Case Study for Idaho National Laboratory

The concept of net-zero carbon microgrids (NZMs) has received significant interest in recent years considering its promises to provide both energy resilience and carbon reduction. This paper investigates the practical constraints of NZM deployment in a government facility, exploring various cases revolving around the objectives of cost, emission, and energy resilience. The technoeconomic results for one of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) facilities are discussed to identify a practical and economic approach to achieve the net-zero target considering both present and future scenarios. The study shows the carbon reduction, resilience, and economic success of net-zero initiatives are tied directly to the energy portfolio of its electricity provider. The NZMs typically required a hybrid mix of renewable generation and storage assets to maximize onsite clean generation and to provide reliable power during grid outages. Besides supporting the ongoing net-zero effort at INL, this work also provides a framework that can be directly used in other facilities aspiring to become a net zero in the future.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ducted fuel injection with Low-Net-Carbon fuels as a solution for meeting future emissions regulations

Several studies have proven how ducted fuel injection (DFI) reduces soot emissions for compression-ignition engines. Nevertheless, no comprehensive study has investigated how DFI performs over a load range in combination with low-net-carbon fuels. In this study, optical-engine experiments were performed with four different fuels—conventional diesel and three low-net-carbon fuels—at low and moderate load, to measure emissions levels and performance. The 1.7-liter single-cylinder optical engine was equipped with a high-speed camera to capture natural luminosity images of the combustion event. Conventional diesel and DFI combustion were investigated at four different dilution levels (to simulate exhaust-gas recirculation effects), from 14 to 21 mol% oxygen in the intake. At a given dilution level, with commercial diesel fuel, DFI reduced soot by 82% at medium load, and 75% at low load without increasing NO x . The results further show how DFI with dilution reduces soot and NO x without compromising engine performance or other emission types, especially when combined with low-net-carbon fuels. DFI with the oxygenated low-net-carbon blend HEA67 simultaneously reduced soot and NO x by as much as 93 % and 82 %, respectively, relative to conventional diesel combustion with commercial diesel fuel. These soot and NO x reductions occurred while lifecycle CO 2 was reduced by at least 70 % when using low-net-carbon fuels instead of conventional diesel. All emissions changes were compared with future emissions regulations for different vehicle sectors to investigate how DFI can be used to facilitate achievement of the regulations. Finally, the results show how the DFI cases fall below several future emissions regulation levels, rendering less need for aftertreatment systems and giving a possible lower cost of ownership.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

AP-Net: An atomic-pairwise neural network for smooth and transferable interaction potentials

Intermolecular interactions are critical to many chemical phenomena, but their accurate computation using ab initio methods is often limited by computational cost. The recent emergence of machine learning (ML) potentials may be a promising alternative. Useful ML models should not only estimate accurate interaction energies but also predict smooth and asymptotically correct potential energy surfaces. However, existing ML models are not guaranteed to obey these constraints. Indeed, systemic deficiencies are apparent in the predictions of our previous hydrogen-bond model as well as the popular ANI-1X model, which we attribute to the use of an atomic energy partition. As a solution, we propose an alternative atomic-pairwise framework specifically for intermolecular ML potentials, and we introduce AP-Net—a neural network model for interaction energies. The AP-Net model is developed using this physically motivated atomic-pairwise paradigm and also exploits the interpretability of symmetry adapted perturbation theory (SAPT). We show that in contrast to other models, AP-Net produces smooth, physically meaningful intermolecular potentials exhibiting correct asymptotic behavior. Initially trained on only a limited number of mostly hydrogen-bonded dimers, AP-Net makes accurate predictions across the chemically diverse S66x8 dataset, demonstrating significant transferability. On a test set including experimental hydrogen-bonded dimers, AP-Net predicts total interaction energies with a mean absolute error of 0.37 kcal mol−1, reducing errors by a factor of 2–5 across SAPT components from previous neural network potentials. The pairwise interaction energies of the model are physically interpretable, and an investigation of predicted electrostatic energies suggests that the model “learns” the physics of hydrogen-bonded interactions.

Glick, Zachary L. (ORCID:0000000309002849)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis and modeling of tungsten emission and net erosion in the DIII-D divertor using updated atomic data

Tungsten (W) is one of the leading candidate materials for plasma-facing components. However, its main drawback is its high radiative efficiency; if W penetrates the plasma, it can lead to core degradation or even collapse. Since eroded tungsten tends to ionize in the sheath and redeposit promptly, the net erosion flux that escapes prompt redeposition can differ significantly from the gross erosion. This work presents a modeling framework to estimate net erosion and photon emission from W coatings exposed to the lower divertor of DIII-D using the DiMES material exposure probe. The approach couples RustBCA for sputtering yields with a Monte Carlo transport code (LPTMC) that models redeposition and W emission. Computation is carried out with new atomic data, based on R-matrix and Mons calculations, leading to lower ionization probabilities and a twofold increase in net erosion estimates compared to calculations done with OPEN-ADAS atomic data. The model results are benchmarked against experimental measurements, showing quantitative agreement for erosion, although the trends in W emission are reproduced only qualitatively. The model is also used to assess whether W II emission can serve as a direct measurement of the net erosion of W in the lower divertor of DIII-D. Simulations show that this is not valid if the electron pressure is above ~120 Pa or if the toroidal length of the eroded material is smaller than the parallel-to-B distance traveled by impurity ions before steady-state conditions are reached. Finally, simulations suggest that when W is sputtered by carbon ions with high impact energies (≳300 eV) in DIII-D, W net erosion scales with W gross erosion and can be numerically approximated using W I flux alone as input.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demand Estimation of Net Metered Loads for Microgrid Restoration

Microgrids can experience frequency instability while operating in the islanded mode due to a significant demand generation imbalance. Presence of net metered (NM) loads can further complicate accurate demand forecasting. For these loads only the net demand, difference of load demand and generation, is available. This paper presents the various stages observed during microgrid restoration with high penetration of NM loads. Disaggregation of demand and generation from the net metered time series is shown to be essential for accurate demand forecasting in each of these stages. A disaggregation approach is proposed using correlation in the net metered data. Time series analysis is then used to forecast the demand in each stage of the microgrid restoration process. A case study using demand and generation time series data from residential loads, shows that the proposed approach is significantly more accurate for demand forecasting than using only the net-metered time series.

demand forecasting, Microgrid, power system restor↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gasification of Coal and Biomass: The Route to Net-Negative-Carbon Power and Hydrogen

One promising process that is a candidate for meeting the goals of the US Department of Energy’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative is to gasify a mixture of coal and biomass to yield a syngas, which can have CO2 removed and then be used to produce hydrogen as well as an off-gas that can be used to flexibly produce power. This concept would overall be carbon net-negative and readily meet the 21st Century Power Plant initiative targets of smaller scale MW generation, high ramp rates and turndown, feedstock flexibility, and high efficiency—at a reasonable cost. Moreover, adding the large-scale production of “ultra-green” hydrogen yields a system tailored for the coming hydrogen economy, providing long-term energy storage and an attractive co-product for sale. The objective of the work being led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Bechtel Corporation (Bechtel), Gas Technology Institute (GTI), Hamilton Mauer International, Inc. (HMI), Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), NexantECA, Inc. (Nexant), and Wärtsilä, is to perform a front-end design and engineering (FEED) study on an oxygen-blown gasification system coupled with water-gas shift, pre-combustion CO2 capture, and pressure-swing adsorption working off a coal/biomass mix to yield high-purity hydrogen and a fuel off-gas that can generate power. Several designs are being considered that will be capable of producing 50 MW net from a flexible generator, over 8500 kg/hr of hydrogen, and net-negative CO2 emissions, at an efficiency of 50% net HHV. The plant would be hosted at an NPPD site, where opportunities for enhanced oil recovery and sequestration have been investigated and the need for low-carbon power and hydrogen is imminent. The principal biomass to be used is corn stover—prevalent in Nebraska where the plant will be located—mixed with Powder River Basin (PRB) coal, necessitating a gasifier that can use this feedstock and be flexible to allow other types. Waste plastics will also be reviewed for use. Two oxygen-blown gasifiers have been identified as candidates that have done testing with biomass including corn stover: the GTI gasifier—a high-pressure, fluidized-bed type—and HMI’s, a lower pressure moving-bed type. Both have relative advantages that are being investigated in the Phase I design study, with a resultant down select of one system for which the FEED will be performed in Phase II. The technical tasks for the proposed project are: • Design Development: Completion of design activities necessary to provide inputs for the FEED study. Multiple design cases will be assessed with the selection of the optimal one for the FEED. • Investment Case Preparation: Development of the draft investment case for the proposed process with business cases performed for the proposed host site and two other locations. • Host Site Selection: Evaluation of the two potential host sites within NPPD’s portfolio to select the preferred candidate based on technical, economic, and environmental considerations. • Environmental Information Volume (EIV) Development: Completion of the EIV for the host site. • FEED Study: Completion of a FEED study based on the design selected in Phase I. A Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analysis will also be performed for the process. • Update Investment Case: Finalization of the investment case based on findings from the FEED. The advantages of the proposed project are significant. Having an engaged U.S. power utility willing to provide a host site that will produce energy from coal plus a deep and experienced team is critical; the process meets all the goals of DOE’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative at an estimated total plant cost of ~$880M and a production cost of hydrogen of ~$2/kg-H2 while producing net-negative carbon power. If developed, this process has real commercial potential in the United States—supported by EPRI’s initial review of the considerable interest from selected U.S. utilities—and elsewhere around the globe. The process has fewer environmental hurdles compared to other concepts, lowering regulatory and protest risks—providing a pathway to preserving the viability of a critical indigenous energy source by transforming its use to match a changing world. This presentation will outline the motivation for the effort, summarize project plans, work completed to date, results of the Design Development task, and detailed work scope for the remainder of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Model Development of a Wind Power Plant Using Neural Net Method to Forecast Wind Power Output (CRADA Final Report)

This project is intended to model wind power plant based on monitored data at the wind power plant. This project will promote the university research in Renewable Energy area and trains the future highly qualified engineers. The dynamic model will be based on neural net model with the input from the two met towers (12 inputs), and the number of turbines in operation (one input). The overall input will be 13 inputs to drive the simulations. The output power at the point of interconnection will be used to tune the neural net weight coefficients. Two neural net concepts will be investigated (the back propagation neural net and the dynamic recurrent neural net with feedback).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

SPRUCE Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog: Supporting data

This data set contains measurements of anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), net methane (CH4) production, carbon dioxide (CO2) production, and gross CH4 production measurements from the SPRUCE experiment (Hanson et al. 2017). CH4 is greenhouse gas with 45 times the sustained global warming potential of CO2 over 100 years, which may have significant implications on global climate change. The process of AOM plays a large role in the extent of CH4 emissions from wetland environments like those at the SPRUCE experiment site. This study conducted two on different dates. In experiment 1, net CH4 and CO2 production were measured with a gas chromatograph through the peat profile at in situ temperatures of the SPRUCE plots four times from May to October, 2016 (2016-05 to 2016-10). Two treatments were examined, a Porewater Treatment that was a 1:1 volumetric peat:porewater slurry and a No Porewater Treatment that was field-moist peat with no porewater added. Additionally, net CH4 production were measured at frequent intervals (from 4 hr to 9 d) in peat from selected SPRUCE plots from soil collected on October 16, 2016 (2016-10-16). Samples were collected from the SPRUCE plots, immediately made anaerobic, and transported to the University of Oregon for rate measurements within several days of collection. In experiment 2, AOM, net CH4 production, CO2 production, and gross CH4 production were measured through the peat profile at in situ field temperatures once from samples collected in July, 2021 (2021-07). The same two porewater treatments were examined. AOM was measured with a 13CH4 tracer method using a Picarro G2201-i analyzer for isotopic CO2/CH4 quantification with a small stable isotope module attached. This data set contains three data files in comma separate (*.csv) format. This data set is associated with the following publication: Barney, M, AM Hopple, LL Gregory, JK Keller, and SD Bridgham. 2024. Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 190, 109316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2024.109316.

SPRUCE Experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, Me↗

DOE OSTI2022

Community-Scale AHA Go Solar Initiative and Net Zero Initiative

The Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe is a sovereign, federally acknowledged Indian Tribe. The Tribal Council created the Akwesasne Housing Authority (AHA) by ordinance in July 1984 and has designated the AHA as its agency for purposes of administering the Tribe’s Indian Housing Block Grant under the Native American Housing and Self-Determination Act of 1996. The Go Solar project will install approximately 615 kilowatts (kW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) facilities to serve housing related buildings on the Tribe’s reservation and use net metering programs to reduce the energy costs for AHA and Tribal members by up to $\$$4,417,501 over the life of the project. AHA will initiate four (4) net zero buildings: two (2) new net zero low-income housing buildings located at Sunrise Acres III, which include the Veterans Supportive Housing Building and the Seniors Supportive Housing building, and one (1) older, existing net zero building used by the Akwesasne Boys & Girls Club (ABGC Building), and (1) Tribal Administration Building.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗