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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cross-correlating radial peculiar velocities and CMB lensing convergence

We study, for the first time, the cross correlation between the angular distribution of radial peculiar velocities (PV) and the lensing convergence of cosmic microwave background (CMB) photons. We derive theoretical expectations for the signal and its covariance and assess its detectability with existing and forthcoming surveys. We find that such cross-correlations are expected to improve constraints on different gravitational models by partially breaking degeneracies with the matter density. We identify in the distance-scaling dispersion of the peculiar velocities the most relevant source of noise in the cross correlation. For this reason, we also study how the above picture changes assuming a redshift-independent scatter for the PV, obtained for example using a reconstruction technique. Our results show that the cross correlation might be detected in the near future combining PV measurements from DESI and the convergence map from CMB-S4. Using realistic direct PV measurements we predict a cumulative signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 3.8σ using data on angular scales 3 ≤ ℓ ≤ 200. For an idealized reconstructed peculiar velocity map extending up to redshift z = 0.15 and a smoothing scale of 4 Mpc h -1 we predict a cumulative signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 27σ from angular scales 3 ≤ ℓ ≤ 200. We conclude that currently reconstructed peculiar velocities have more constraining power than directly observed ones, even though they are more cosmological-model dependent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Noise: Paths toward AI-Enabled Stochastic Earth System Models and Parameterizations

Some of the key challenges in Earth system prediction arise from an uncertain representation of unpredictable natural variability, across time and space scales. This variability, hereafter referred to as noise, represents the quantity against which the strength of a signal of interest is measured to assess predictability. Underestimating or overestimating this noise in Earth system models can lead to issues ranging between overconfidence in an erroneous prediction and a lack thereof in an otherwise accurate one. Noise is part of the physical processes in the Earth system and can amplify or damp a signal of interest in a complex manner that is not systematically characterized. Specifically, while there has been significant progress in our understanding of multiscale interactions among known modes of variability (potentially predictable signals), how these are impacted by the noise is not clear. Recent effort toward stochastic parametrization schemes that provide a representation of noise due to uncertain sub-grid processes in climate models (Berner et al., 2017 and references therein) has shown promise not only in reducing biases and improving probabilistic prediction but also in improving the representation of natural variability in the model toward what is observed. However, today’s standard schemes for stochastic parametrization are still simplistic as they do not take the state of the atmosphere into account (other than by the use of multiplicative noise for model tendencies). Furthermore they require hand-tuning and trial-and-error testing for the magnitude of the added noise, which is difficult in a chaotic system that is as complex as the Earth system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum process tomography of a Mølmer-Sørensen gate via a global beam

Here, we present a framework for quantum process tomography of two-ion interactions that leverages modulations of the trapping potential and composite pulses from a global laser beam to achieve individual-ion addressing. Tomographic analysis of identity and delay processes reveals dominant error contributions from laser decoherence and slow qubit frequency drift during the tomography experiment. We use this framework on two co-trapped 40 Ca + ions to analyze both an optimized and an overpowered Mølmer–Sørensen gate and to compare the results of this analysis to a less informative Bell-state tomography measurement and to predictions based on a simplified noise model. These results show that the technique is effective for the characterization of two-ion quantum processes and for the extraction of meaningful information about the errors present in the system. The experimental convenience of this method will allow for more widespread use of process tomography for characterizing entangling gates in trapped-ion systems.

quantum computing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole Using a Stochastic Dynamical Model Compared to the North American Multimodel Ensemble Forecast

This study assesses the predictive skill of eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) models in predicting the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). We find that the forecasted ensemble-mean IOD–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship deteriorates away from the observed relationship with increasing lead time, which might be one reason that limits the IOD predictive skill in coupled models. We are able to improve the IOD predictive skill using a recently developed stochastic dynamical model (SDM) forced by forecasted ENSO conditions. The results are consistent with the previous result that operational IOD predictability beyond persistence at lead times beyond one season is mostly controlled by ENSO predictability and the signal-to-noise ratio of the Indo-Pacific climate system. The multimodel ensemble (MME) investigated here is found to be of superior skill compared to each individual model at most lead times. Importantly, the skill of the SDM IOD predictions forced with forecasted ENSO conditions were either similar or better than those of the MME IOD forecasts. Moreover, the SDM forced with observed ENSO conditions exhibits significantly higher IOD prediction skill than the MME at longer lead times, suggesting the large potential skill increase that could be achieved by improving operational ENSO forecasts. We find that both cold and warm biases of the predicted Niño-3.4 index may cause false alarms of negative and positive IOD events, respectively, in NMME models. Many false alarms for IOD forecasts at lead times longer than one season in the original forecasts disappear or are significantly reduced in the SDM forced by forecasted ENSO conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Solution Accuracy and Convergence for Stochastic Physics Parameterizations with Colored Noise

Stochastic parameterizations are used in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling to help capture the uncertainty in the simulations and improve their statistical properties. Convergence issues can arise when time integration methods originally developed for deterministic differential equations are applied naively to stochastic problems. In previous studies, it has been demonstrated that a correction term, known in stochastic analysis as the Itô correction, can help improve solution accuracy for various deterministic numerical schemes and ensure convergence to the physically relevant solution without substantial computational overhead. The usual formulation of the Itô correction is valid only when the stochasticity is represented by white noise. In this study, a generalized formulation of the Itô correction is derived for noises of any color. The formulation is applied to a test problem described by an advection–diffusion equation forced with a spectrum of fast processes. We present numerical results for cases with both constant and spatially varying advection velocities to show that, for the same time step sizes, the introduction of the generalized Itô correction helps to substantially reduce time integration error and significantly improve the convergence rate of the numerical solutions when the forcing term in the governing equation is rough (fast varying); alternatively, for the same target accuracy, the generalized Itô correction allows for the use of significantly longer time steps and, hence, helps to reduce the computational cost of the numerical simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of direct and indirect noise in a next-generation aviation gas turbine combustor

A large-eddy simulation (LES) of a next-generation combustor is performed to examine effects of this combustor concepts on direct and indirect combustion noise characteristics. Direct noise is computed considering the unsteady heat release predictions while entropy fluctuations in the downstream part of the combustor are used to estimate indirect noise through the transfer function of the outlet nozzle. A low-order acoustic reconstruction technique, which utilizes the Green’s function of the configuration, is developed to compute the acoustics inside the combustor. Comparisons to experimental results are reported, showing the reasonable accuracy of the LES and combustion noise computations. The direct noise spectrum peaks at frequencies around 3 kHz because of the fast timescales associated with the chemical reactions inside the combustor. In addition, the indirect noise is dominant at low frequencies, i.e., less than 400 Hz, because of the characteristics of the entropy spectrum at the outlet nozzle. Further, compared to a conventional rich-quench-lean (RQL) combustor configuration, significant differences in the acoustics are observed, and are explained by two specific technological novelties. Firstly, the direct noise spectrum peaks at significantly higher frequencies due to the combustor’s compactness. Secondly, the entropy inhomogeneties downstream of the combustion region are an order of magnitude smaller in amplitude due to the lack of dilution with cold air. This leads to a significant reduction in the indirect noise amplitude at low frequencies, where it is the dominant source of noise. These results suggest opportunities for advanced combustion technologies to achieve substantial reductions in combustion-related noise.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum circuit fidelity estimation using machine learning

The computational power of real-world quantum computers is limited by errors. When using quantum computers to perform algorithms which cannot be efficiently simulated classically, it is important to quantify the accuracy with which the computation has been performed. In this work, we introduce a machine learning-based technique to estimate the fidelity between the state produced by a noisy quantum circuit and the target state corresponding to ideal noise-free computation. Our machine learning model is trained in a supervised manner, using smaller or simpler circuits for which the fidelity can be estimated using other techniques like direct fidelity estimation and quantum state tomography. Here we demonstrate that, for simulated random quantum circuits with a realistic noise model, the trained model can predict the fidelities of more complicated circuits for which such methods are infeasible. In particular, we show that the trained model may make predictions for circuits with higher degrees of entanglement than were available in the training set and that the model may make predictions for non-Clifford circuits even when the training set included only Clifford-reducible circuits. This empirical demonstration suggests classical machine learning may be useful for making predictions about beyond-classical quantum circuits for some non-trivial problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on Large-Scale White Noise in the Cosmic Density Field

We present observational constraints on large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the cosmic density field, a phenomenon predicted to arise from non-linear mode coupling during cosmological evolution. Building on the theoretical framework of Paper I, where we demonstrated that non-linearities inevitably redistribute power from small to large scales through mode mixing, we confront these predictions with current cosmological data. We modify the CLASS Boltzmann code to incorporate a white noise component $k_\mathrm{BH}/k$ in the primordial power spectrum and perform parameter estimation using current cosmological data. The non-detection of excess power on the largest observable scales places stringent upper bounds: $k_\mathrm{BH} \leq 1.80 \times 10^{-13}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 99% confidence. These constraints imply the primordial power spectrum must deviate from perfect scale invariance on small scales, either through a cutoff at $k_{\mathrm{cut}} \lesssim 3~\mathrm{pc}^{-1}$ or through running of the spectral index with $α_s \lesssim -0.015$. Our results demonstrate that LSWN provides a powerful probe of the primordial spectrum at scales orders of magnitude smaller than directly observable, offering unique constraints on early-universe physics.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulating Reflected Light Exoplanet Spectra of the Promising Direct Imaging Target, υ Andromedae d, with a New, Fast Sampling Method Using the Planetary Spectrum Generator

Simulations of exoplanet albedo profiles are key to planning and interpreting future direct imaging observations. In this paper we demonstrate the use of the Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) to produce simulations of reflected light exoplanet spectra. We use PSG to examine multiple issues relevant to all models of directly imaged exoplanet spectra and to produce sample spectra of the bright, nearby exoplanet υ Andromedae d (υ And d), a potential direct imaging target for next-generation facilities. We introduce a new, fast, and accurate subsampling technique that enables calculations of disk-integrated spectra one order of magnitude faster than Chebyshev–Gauss sampling for moderate- to high-resolution sampling. Using this method and a first-principles-derived atmosphere for υ And d, we simulate phase-dependent spectra for a variety of different potential atmospheric configurations. The simulated spectra for υ And d include versions with different haze and cloud properties. Based on our combined analysis of this planet’s orbital parameters, phase- and illumination-appropriate model spectra, and realistic instrument noise parameters, we find that υ And d is a potentially favorable direct imaging and spectroscopy target for the Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) on the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. When a noise model corresponding to the Roman CGI SPC spectroscopy mode is included, PSG predicts the time required to reach a signal-to-noise ratio of 10 of the simulated spectra in both the central wavelength bin of the Roman CGI SPC spectroscopy mode (R = 50 spectrum) and of the Band 1 HLC imaging mode is approximately 400 and less than 40 hr, respectively. We also discuss potential pathways to extricating information about the planet and its atmosphere with future observations and find that Roman observations may be able to bound the interior temperature of the planet.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Operational Analytics Studies for ATLAS Distributed Computing: Data Popularity Forecast and Utilization of the WLCG Centers

Operational analytics is the direction of research related to the analysis of the current state of computing processes and the prediction of future states in order to anticipate imbalances and take timely measures to stabilize a complex system. There are two relevant areas in ATLAS Distributed Computing that are currently the focus of studies: user physics analysis including the forecast of popularity of data samples among users, and evaluating WLCG centers for their readiness to process user analysis payloads. Studying these areas is challenging due to the complexity involved, as it requires a comprehensive understanding of numerous boundary conditions typically found in large-scale distributed computing infrastructures. Forecasts of data popularity are problematic without the categorization of user tasks by their types (data transformation or physics analysis), which do not always appear on the surface but may induce noise, which introduces significant distortions for predictive analysis. Evaluating the WLCG resources by their analysis workloads is also a challenging task as it is necessary to find a balance between the workload of the resource, its performance, the waiting time for jobs on it, as well as the volume of jobs that it processes. This is especially difficult in a heterogeneous computing environment, where legacy resources are used along with modern high-performance machines. We will look at these areas of research in detail and discuss what tools and methods are used in our work, demonstrating results already obtained.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of natural zeolites on field-scale geologic noble gas transport

Improving predictive models for noble gas transport through natural materials at the field-scale is an essential component of improving US nuclear monitoring capabilities. Several field-scale experiments with a gas transport component have been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (Non-Proliferation Experiment, Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment). However, the models associated with these experiments have not treated zeolite minerals as gas adsorbing phases. This is significant as zeolites are a common alteration mineral with a high abundance at these field sites and are shown here to significantly fractionate noble gases during field-scale transport. This fractionation and associated retardation can complicate gas transport predictions by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detector (e.g. mass spectrometers or radiation detectors) enough to mask the signal or make the data difficult to interpret. Omitting adsorption-related retardation data of noble gases in predictive gas transport models therefore results in systematic errors in model predictions where zeolites are present.Herein is presented noble gas adsorption data collected on zeolitized and non-zeolitized tuff. Experimental results were obtained using a unique piezometric adsorption system designed and built for this study. Data collected were then related to pure-phase mineral analyses conducted on clinoptilolite, mordenite, and quartz. These results quantify the adsorption capacity of materials present in field-scale systems, enabling the modeling of low-permeability rocks as significant sorption reservoirs vital to bulk transport predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model predictive control of mixing controlled compression ignition operation for low reactivity fuels

Using gasoline or other low reactivity fuels with a pilot injection or port fuel injection in a compression ignition engine has shown great potential in reducing NOx emissions while keeping high thermal efficiency compared to diesel. However, excessive combustion noise is caused by a high maximum pressure rise rate in the cylinder due to the higher fractions of premixed charge of the low-reactivity fuel. This noise can result in structural damage to engine components and as such, combustion noise limits the range of the operating parameters and makes the control of such engines challenging. In this study, a simulation environment was built up in MATLAB/Simulink leveraging a physics-based zero-dimension combustion model to capture the in-cylinder pressure time traces as well as metrics relevant to thermal efficiency and combustion noise. Here, in order to also facilitate the control of emissions, machine learning models were investigated to capture NOx emissions. A kernel-based extreme learning machine (K-ELM) performed best and had a coefficient of correlation (R-squared) of 0.998. The combustion and NOx emission models are valid for not only conventional gasoline fuel but also oxygenated alternative fuel blends at three different pilot injection strategies. In order to track key combustion metrics while keeping noise and emissions within constraints, a model predictive control (MPC) was applied for a compression ignition engine operating with a range of potential fuels and fuel injection strategies. The MPC is validated under different scenarios, including a load step change, fuel type change, and injection strategy change, with proportional–integral (PI) control as the baseline. The simulation results show that MPC reduces about 26% of ringing intensity in the transient process and 17% at the steady state for E30. Generally, MPC can optimize the overall performance through modifying the main injection timing, pilot fuel mass, and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) fraction.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Speed Planner for Automated Vehicles: A Framework for Lagrangian Variable Speed Limit in Mixed-Autonomy Traffic

Here, this article presents a novel hierarchical speed planning framework for variable speed limits in mixed-autonomy traffic environments, leveraging server-side macroscopic control and vehicle-side microscopic execution. The framework integrates real-time traffic state estimation (TSE) and reinforcement learning (RL)-based control to mitigate congestion and improve traffic flow. A TSE enhancement module combines macroscopic data from sources like INRIX with high-resolution observations from connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), enabling predictive modeling to address latency and noise. The target speed design module employs kernel smoothing and a buffer zone strategy to optimize traffic density and flow around bottlenecks. The proposed system was validated in the largest open-road test to date with 100 CAVs, demonstrating an overall 8% traffic density decrease, with a specific decrease of 7% upstream, 10% downstream, and a 52% decrease during the congestion formation phase at bottlenecks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emission line predictions for mock galaxy catalogues: a new differentiable and empirical mapping from DESI

ABSTRACT We present a simple, differentiable method for predicting emission line strengths from rest-frame optical continua using an empirically determined mapping. Extensive work has been done to develop mock galaxy catalogues that include robust predictions for galaxy photometry, but reliably predicting the strengths of emission lines has remained challenging. Our new mapping is a simple neural network implemented using the JAX Python automatic differentiation library. It is trained on Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Early Release data to predict the equivalent widths (EWs) of the eight brightest optical emission lines (including H α, H β, [O ii], and [O iii]) from a galaxy’s rest-frame optical continuum. The predicted EW distributions are consistent with the observed ones when noise is accounted for, and we find Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient ρs > 0.87 between predictions and observations for most lines. Using a non-linear dimensionality reduction technique, we show that this is true for galaxies across the full range of observed spectral energy distributions. In addition, we find that adding measurement uncertainties to the predicted line strengths is essential for reproducing the distribution of observed line-ratios in the BPT diagram. Our trained network can easily be incorporated into a differentiable stellar population synthesis pipeline without hindering differentiability or scalability with GPUs. A synthetic catalogue generated with such a pipeline can be used to characterize and account for biases in the spectroscopic training sets used for training and calibration of photo-z’s, improving the modelling of systematic incompleteness for the Rubin Observatory LSST and other surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗