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DOE OSTI2021

Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America

Snowpack and snowmelt-driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow-related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain-on-snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and GSWP3 (Daymet-GSWP3)

To support high spatial and temporal resolution land surface modeling, this dataset provides 3-hourly time step historic weather forcing at 1-km spatial resolution for the entire North America. The latest Daymet V4 data provides gridded historic daily weather observations at 1-km spatial resolution from 1980 to 2014. Using sub-daily temporal information from the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3), Daymet was further temporally downscaled to 3-hourly time steps and provided in the format required for land surface model simulations. The process of temporal downscaling preserves the relative magnitude in each sub-daily time step from GSWP3 while maintaining the total and average values from Daymet for each day. This results in a blended 1980-2014 Daymet-GSWP3 dataset. Available variables include surface air temperature, precipitation, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, and pressure. These data can be used as a high-resolution meteorological forcing dataset to support high-resolution land surface modeling where accurate meteorological forcing datasets built from historic observations and/or reanalysis datasets are desirable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Gridded Sub-daily Climate Forcings for North America Based on Daymet and GSWP3 (Daymet-GSWP3)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty for Western North America

Abstract Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T̄) and precipitation (P̄). For RCP4.5, T̄ MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P̄ MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T̄ MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P̄ MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.

Water Resources↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-resolution CARMA Observation of Molecular Gas in the North America and Pelican Nebulae

In this paper, we present the first results from a CARMA high-resolution {sup 12}CO(1-0), {sup 13}CO(1-0), and C{sup 18}O(1-0) molecular line survey of the North America and Pelican (NAP) Nebulae. CARMA observations have been combined with single-dish data from the Purple Mountain 13.7 m telescope, to add short spacings and to produce high-dynamic-range images. We find that the molecular gas is predominantly shaped by the W80 H ii bubble, driven by an O star. Several bright rims noted in the observation are probably remnant molecular clouds, heated and stripped by the massive star. Matching these rims in molecular lines and optical images, we construct a model of the three-dimensional structure of the NAP complex. Two groups of molecular clumps/filaments are on the near side of the bubble: one is being pushed toward us, whereas the other is moving toward the bubble. Another group is on the far side of the bubble, and moving away. The young stellar objects in the Gulf region reside in three different clusters, each hosted by a cloud from one of the three molecular clump groups. Although all gas content in the NAP is impacted by feedback from the central O star, some regions show no signs of star formation, while other areas clearly exhibit star formation activity. Additional molecular gas being carved by feedback includes cometary structures in the Pelican Head region, and the boomerang features at the boundary of the Gulf region. The results show that the NAP complex is an ideal place for the study of feedback effects on star formation.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spatial and temporal patterns in age structure of Golden Eagles wintering in eastern North America

The behavior of wildlife varies seasonally, and that variation can have substantial demographic consequences. This is especially true for long-distance migrants where the use of landscapes varies by season and, sometimes, age cohort. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that distributional patterns of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) wintering in eastern North America are age-structured (i.e., birds of similar ages winter together) through the analysis of 370,307 images collected by motion-sensitive trail cameras set over bait during the winters of 2012–2013 and 2013–2014. At nine sites with sufficient data for analysis, we documented 145 eagle visits in 2012–2013 and 146 in 2013–2014. We found significant between-year variation in age structure of wintering eastern Golden Eagles, driven largely by annual differences in the proportion of first-winter birds. However, although many other species show spatial structure in wintering behavior, our analysis revealed no latitudinal organization among age cohorts of wintering eastern Golden Eagles. The lack of age-related latitudinal segregation in wintering behavior does not exclude the possibility that these eagles have sex-based or other types of dominance hierarchies that could result in spatial or temporal segregation. Alternatively, other mechanisms such as food availability or habitat structure may determine the distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in winter.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gridded daily weather data for North America with comprehensive uncertainty quantification

Abstract Access to daily high-resolution gridded surface weather data based on direct observations and over long time periods is essential for many studies and applications including vegetation, wildlife, soil health, hydrological modelling, and as driver data in Earth system models. We present Daymet V4, a 40-year daily meteorological dataset on a 1 km grid for North America, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, providing temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation, vapor pressure, snow water equivalent, and day length. The dataset includes an objective quantification of uncertainty based on strict cross-validation analysis for temperature and precipitation results. The dataset represents several improvements from a previous version, and this data descriptor provides complete documentation for updated methods. Improvements include: reductions in the timing bias of input reporting weather station measurements; improvement to the three-dimensional regression model techniques in the core algorithm; and a novel approach to handling high elevation temperature measurement biases. We show cross-validation analyses with the underlying weather station data to demonstrate the technical validity of new dataset generation methods, and to quantify improved accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the PV Resource Dataset in Central and North America: Preprint

A recent effort from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has led to a new radiative transfer model, Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with Narrowband Irradiances on Tilted surfaces (FARMS-NIT), to efficiently compute plane-of-array (POA) irradiance. This model has been implemented by the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to provide photovoltaic (PV) resource over Central and North America in both narrow- and broad wavelength bands. This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the PV resource dataset using surface-based observations in various climate zones. The results demonstrate the PV resource has an excellent agreement with the cloudy-sky observations from thermopiles and reference cells.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Population Genomic Analyses Reveal Connectivity via Human-Mediated Transport across Populus Plantations in North America and an Undescribed Subpopulation of Sphaerulina musiva

Domestication of plant species has affected the evolutionary dynamics of plant pathogens in agriculture and forestry. A model system for studying the consequences of plant domestication on the evolution of an emergent plant disease is the fungal pathogen Sphaerulina musiva. This ascomycete causes leaf spot and stem canker disease of Populus spp. and their hybrids. A population genomics approach was used to determine the degree of population structure and evidence for selection on the North American population of S. musiva. In total, 122 samples of the fungus were genotyped identifying 120,016 single-nucleotide polymorphisms after quality filtering. In North America, S. musiva has low to moderate degrees of differentiation among locations. Three main genetic clusters were detected: southeastern United States, midwestern United States and Canada, and a new British Columbia cluster (BC2). Population genomics suggest that BC2 is a novel genetic cluster from central British Columbia, clearly differentiated from previously reported S. musiva from coastal British Columbia, and the product of a single migration event. Phenotypic measurements from greenhouse experiments indicate lower aggressiveness of BC2 on Populus trichocarpa. In summary, S. musiva has geographic structure across broad regions indicative of gene flow among clusters. The interconnectedness of the North American S. musiva populations across large geographic distances further supports the hypothesis of anthropogenic-facilitated transport of the pathogen.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Daytime urban heat stress in North America reduced by irrigation

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of irrigation on heat stress, partly stemming from the choice of heat stress index. Moreover, existing simulations are at scales that cannot appropriately resolve population centres or clouds and thus the potential for human impacts. Using multi-year convection-permitting and urban-resolving regional climate simulations, we demonstrate that irrigation alleviates summertime heat stress across more than 1,600 urban clusters in North America. This holds true for most physiologically relevant heat stress indices. The impact of irrigation varies by climate zone, with more notable irrigation signals seen for arid urban clusters that are situated near heavily irrigated fields. Through a component attribution framework, we show that irrigation-induced changes in wet-bulb temperature, often used as a moist heat stress proxy in the geosciences, exhibit an opposite sign to the corresponding changes in wet bulb globe temperature—a more complete index for assessing both indoor and outdoor heat risk—across climate zones. In contrast, the local changes in both wet-bulb and wet bulb globe temperature due to urbanization have the same sign. Here, our results demonstrate a complex relationship between irrigation and heat stress, highlighting the importance of using appropriate heat stress indices when assessing the potential for population-scale human impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long-term patterns of cave-exiting activity of hibernating bats in western North America

Understanding frequency and variation of cave-exiting activity after arousal from torpor of hibernating bats is important for bat ecology and conservation, especially considering white-nose syndrome. In winter from 2011 to 2018, we acoustically monitored, and counted in hibernacula, two species of conservation concern—western small-footed myotis ( Myotis ciliolabrum ) and Townsend’s big-eared bats ( Corynorhinus townsendii )—in 9 caves located in important habitat for these species in western North America. We investigated if cave-exiting activity differed by species, cave, number of hibernating bats, moon phase, and weather variables. Both species exited hibernacula during all winter months, but most activity occurred in March followed by November. Although we counted almost 15 times more Townsend’s big-eared bats during hibernacula surveys, we documented western small-footed myotis exiting caves 3 times more than Townsend’s big-eared bats. Cave-exiting activity increased with increasing number of hibernating bats, but more so for western small-footed myotis. Both species of bats were active during warm weather and low wind speeds. Western small-footed myotis were more active during colder temperatures, higher wind speeds, and greater change in barometric pressure than Townsend’s big-eared bats. Our results provide a long-term dataset of cave-exiting activity after arousal from torpor during hibernation for these species before the arrival of white-nose syndrome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multiple lineages of Streptomyces produce antimicrobials within passalid beetle galleries across eastern North America

Some insects form symbioses in which actinomycetes provide defense against pathogens by making antimicrobials. The range of chemical strategies employed across these associations, and how these strategies relate to insect lifestyle, remains underexplored. We assessed subsocial passalid beetles of the species Odontotaenius disjunctus , and their frass (fecal material), which is an important food resource within their galleries, as a model insect/actinomycete system. Through chemical and phylogenetic analyses, we found that O. disjunctus frass collected across eastern North America harbored multiple lineages of Streptomyces and diverse antimicrobials. Metabolites detected in frass displayed synergistic and antagonistic inhibition of a fungal entomopathogen, Metarhizium anisopliae , and multiple streptomycete isolates inhibited this pathogen when co-cultivated directly in frass. These findings support a model in which the lifestyle of O. disjunctus accommodates multiple Streptomyces lineages in their frass, resulting in a rich repertoire of antimicrobials that likely insulates their galleries against pathogenic invasion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemical imaging of individual stratospheric particles sampled over North America

The increasing size, severity, and frequency of wildfires have led to dramatic increases in particulate matter concentrations in the troposphere. Severe wildfires can generate intense convective systems capable of transporting large quantities of biomass burning organic aerosols (BBOA) to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Chemically complex organic matter and light-absorbing carbonaceous material is introduced into stratospheric regions that were historically isolated from direct surface emissions. In this study, stratospheric particles were sampled over North America during the Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) campaign, an aircraft-based research project designed to characterize convective perturbation in the UTLS. Particle samples collected from six research flights during summer 2022 were analyzed using Computer-Controlled Scanning Electron Microscopy and Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy to investigate particle size distributions, morphology, chemical composition, and mixing state of stratospheric particles along transects across the continental United States and adjacent Pacific Ocean airspace. Analysis revealed that all sampled particles contained detectable levels of carbon, with most exhibiting organic volume fractions of 0.37 ± 0.20. Notably, about 5% of the particles also contained soot inclusions, which indicates the presence of refractory black carbon transported to stratospheric altitudes and provides direct evidence of wildfire-derived black carbon reaching the UTLS. Typical particle morphology exhibits organic shells over soot and inorganic cores and suggests secondary processing and aging of BBOA during transport to and within the UTLS. These findings provide compelling evidence that wildfire emissions play a critical role in affecting the long-term composition and radiative properties of stratospheric particles.

Sharpe, Steven [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Similarities in Meteorological Composites Among Different Atmospheric River Detection Tools During Landfall Over Western Coastal North America

Many atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) have been developed over the past few decades to identify atmospheric rivers (ARs). Different ARDTs have been observed to capture a variety of frequencies, shapes, and sizes of ARs. Due to this, questions have arisen about the underlying phenomena associated with the detected ARs: do all ARDTs detect the same meteorological phenomena? In this paper, we assess eight ARDTs and investigate the underlying synoptic scale phenomena during landfalling ARs along the west coast of North America. We find that during landfalling AR events, prevalent low-pressure and high-pressure systems converge and enhance moisture influx toward the landfalling site. We identify that all eight ARDTs identify AR conditions associated with baroclinic waves, with the region of intense integrated vapor transport (IVT) located downstream of the upper level (500 hPa) trough. The magnitude of IVT is enhanced by the strength of the pressure gradients in the confluence region. Although the ARDTs assessed agree on the general phenomena, there are however subtle differences in each ARDT per the clustering analysis we performed. We conclude that the eight ARDTs identify similar underpinning synoptic scale meteorological phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Blue Carbon Stocks Along the Pacific Coast of North America Are Mainly Driven by Local Rather Than Regional Factors

Coastal wetlands, including seagrass meadows, emergent marshes, mangroves, and temperate tidal swamps, can efficiently sequester and store large quantities of sediment organic carbon (SOC). However, SOC stocks may vary by ecosystem type and along environmental or climate gradients at different scales. Quantifying such variability is needed to improve blue carbon accounting, conservation effectiveness, and restoration planning. We analyzed SOC stocks in 1,284 sediment cores along >6,500 km of the Pacific coast of North America that included large environmental gradients and multiple ecosystem types. Tidal wetlands with woody vegetation (mangroves and swamps) had the highest mean stocks to 1 m depth (357 and 355 Mg ha −1 , respectively), 45% higher than marshes (245 Mg ha −1 ), and more than 500% higher than seagrass (68 Mg ha −1 ). Unvegetated tideflats, though not often considered a blue carbon ecosystem, had noteworthy stocks (148 Mg ha −1 ). Stocks increased with tidal elevation and with fine (<63 μm) sediment content in several ecosystems. Stocks also varied by dominant plant species within individual ecosystem types. At larger scales, marsh stocks were lowest in the Sonoran Desert region of Mexico, and swamp stocks differed among climate zones; otherwise stocks showed little correlation with ecoregion or latitude. More variability in SOC occurred among ecosystem types, and at smaller spatial scales (such as individual estuaries), than across regional climate gradients. These patterns can inform coastal conservation and restoration priorities across scales where preserving stored carbon and enhancing sequestration helps avert greenhouse gas emissions and maintains other vital ecosystem services.

emergent marsh↗

DOE OSTI2025

Re-examining urban rainfall enhancement over North America

Abstract Quantifying intensification/suppression of precipitation over urban areas relative to their rural surroundings can inform efforts to reduce urban flooding. Few studies have systematically addressed whether urban areas exhibit a higher/lower probability of precipitation and/or higher/lower annual total precipitation and/or intensification/weakening of intense precipitation events relative to nearby rural areas across a range of hydroclimatic conditions and urban contexts. Here we address this literature gap using the IMERG V07 data set and analyses of rural and urban samples drawn from 47 conurbations across North America. Specifically, we quantify whether/how precipitation regimes over the urban grid cells differ from those in rural grid cells located 100–250 km from the city center and at a similar elevation. As in previous research, there is evidence that both the probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are typically higher in the urban grid cells. However, most conurbations have lower upper percentile precipitation rates in the urban sample and lower median precipitation rates above the 95th percentile than are present in samples drawn from rural grid cells. Thus, these conurbations are not, on average, intensifying high-magnitude precipitation events over urban grid cells. Further, the total volume of water accumulated at the surface during events of equivalent duration is not systematically higher over the urban areas, and 20 year return period values of 30 min and wettest pentad precipitation are also not systematically higher over the urban areas. The nature of urban modification of precipitation is a strong function of the prevailing hydroclimate. For example, the heaviest rainfall periods are enhanced over urban grid cells within regional hydroclimates where the overall probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are low. Conversely, there is evidence for urban suppression of the highest percentile precipitation rates in wetter hydroclimates.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗