Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Numerical weather prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Observing System Simulation Experiments to Determine the Impact of Spaceborne Differential Absorption Radar Measurements of Marine Surface Pressure on Numerical Weather Prediction

Surface air pressures over marine regions can potentially be measured by estimating the total atmospheric column oxygen content with differential absorption radar (DAR). A demonstration instrument, the Microwave Barometric Radar and Sounder (MBARS) has been funded by NASA for airborne missions in 2024 to show proof of concept. In this presentation, the potential use of such marine surface pressure observations from a spaceborne DAR platform to improve numerical weather prediction is examined using the NASA/GMAO global Observing System Simulation Experiment. Several aspects of the instrument are explored, including contamination by heavy precipitation and the expected error characteristics of the observations. Different orbit and scan configurations are compared, including various constellations of nadir smallsats and A-Train-type scanning configurations. The impacts of marine surface pressure observations are put into context with the current global observing network with a Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impact tool.

Nikki Privé↗

Estimates of Future Numerical Weather Prediction Impacts from Hyperspectral Sounders

The United States’ satellite programs are currently in the process of evaluating the future of satellite observations of the Earth’s atmosphere, both as an individual nation and within the context of international partnerships. In an effort to better understand the impacts of various alternatives, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework has been utilized to evaluate several configurations of the international hyperspectral infrared sounder constellation from the perspective of global numerical weather prediction (NWP). This was done with an emphasis on the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), planned to launch in the mid-2030s, and similar planned missions from international partners. GXS, in addition to contributions from EUMETSAT and JMA, will form a global ring of geostationary sounders consistent with the WMO’s 2040 vision. In addition to a novel geostationary IR sounder program, considerations extend to the future of the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sounder program with the upcoming demise of several existing instruments and plans for future missions ongoing. The GMAO OSSE framework has examined the potential roles of GEO and LEO sounders in weather prediction improvement. Overall, the inclusion of both GEO sounders in a global ring and LEO sounders produces the most beneficial observation impact and the most accurate global weather forecasts as evaluated using several metrics, including hurricanes and the FSOI.

Erica Mcgrath-Spangler↗

The Vertical Error Characteristics of GOES-derived Winds: Description and Impact on Numerical Weather Prediction

Errors in the height assignment of some satellite-derived winds exist because the satellites sense radiation emitted from a finite layer of the atmosphere rather than a specific level. Potential problems in data assimilation may arise because the motion of a measured layer is often represented by a single-level value. In this research, cloud and water vapor motion winds that are derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES winds) are compared to collocated rawinsonde observations (RAOBs). An important aspect of this work is that in addition to comparisons at each assigned height, the GOES winds are compared to the entire profile of the collocated RAOB data to determine the vertical error characteristics of the GOES winds. The impact of these results on numerical weather prediction is then investigated. The comparisons at individual vector height assignments indicate that the error of the GOES winds range from approx. 3 to 10 m/s and generally increase with height. However, if taken as a percentage of the total wind speed, accuracy is better at upper levels. As expected, comparisons with the entire profile of the collocated RAOBs indicate that clear-air water vapor winds represent deeper layers than do either infrared or water vapor cloud-tracked winds. This is because in cloud-free regions the signal from water vapor features may result from emittance over a thicker layer. To further investigate characteristics of the clear-air water vapor winds, they are stratified into two categories that are dependent on the depth of the layer represented by the vector. It is found that if the vertical gradient of moisture is smooth and uniform from near the height assignment upwards, the clear-air water vapor wind tends to represent a relatively deep layer. The information from the comparisons is then used in numerical model simulations of two separate events to determine the forecast impacts. Four simulations are performed for each case: 1) A control simulation that assimilates no satellite wind data, 2) assimilation of all GOES winds according to their assigned single level height, 3) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, and 4) assimilation of all GOES winds spread over multiple levels, but with variations in the vertical influence of clear-air water vapor winds based on the moisture profile in the model. In the first case, a strong mid-latitude cyclone is present and the use of the satellite data results in improved storm tracks during the initial approx. 36 h forecast period. This is because the satellite data improves the analysis of the environment into which the storm progresses. Statistics for mean wind vector and height differences show that, with the exception of the height field at later times in the first case, the use of GOES winds improves the simulation with time. The simulation results suggest that it is beneficial to spread the GOES wind information over multiple levels, particularly when the moisture profile is used to define the vertical influence.

Rao, P. Anil↗

Simulation studies of proposed observing systems and their impact on numerical weather prediction

A series of realistic simulation studies is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of proposed observation systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. A special objective of this project is to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies.

Atlas, R.↗

Improving Numerical Weather Predictions of Summertime Precipitation Over the Southeastern U.S. Through a High-Resolution Initialization of the Surface State

It is hypothesized that high-resolution, accurate representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and sea surface temperature are necessary to improve simulations of summertime pulse-type convective precipitation in high resolution models. This paper presents model verification results of a case study period from June-August 2008 over the Southeastern U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model. Experimental simulations initialized with high-resolution land surface fields from the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are compared to a set of control simulations initialized with interpolated fields from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 12-km North American Mesoscale model. The LIS land surface and MODIS SSTs provide a more detailed surface initialization at a resolution comparable to the 4-km model grid spacing. Soil moisture from the LIS spin-up run is shown to respond better to the extreme rainfall of Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008 over the Florida peninsula. The LIS has slightly lower errors and higher anomaly correlations in the top soil layer, but exhibits a stronger dry bias in the root zone. The model sensitivity to the alternative surface initial conditions is examined for a sample case, showing that the LIS/MODIS data substantially impact surface and boundary layer properties.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Complementarities of GEO and LEO IR Sounders for Numerical Weather Prediction in an OSSE Framework

Preparations are underway for the United States’ weather satellite program and the expected advancements in the coming decade. Among these changes is the launch of the proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) Sounder (GXS), coordinated with international counterparts, to form a global ring of hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounders. Coincident with the progress of IR sounders from GEO platforms, the future of low Earth orbit (LEO) sounders is being re-envisioned after decades of beneficial impact in numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. To address questions about the utility of the two platform types in concert, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework was used to examine the roles of GEO and LEO sounders and their impact on forecast error reduction. Overall, inclusion of both types of platforms in the satellite program produces the largest forecast error reduction with LEO sounders having a strong impact on global skill and GEO sounders providing the most benefit on the scale of targeted regions.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

The utilization of Seasat-A data in numerical weather prediction

The present paper provides the results from several numerical experiments which have been conducted in cases in which SASS (Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer) winds were either included or excluded. Global scale experiments are discussed along with a regional area model. The regional model is essentially that described by Duffy (1981). A description of the initial conditions used in the regional model experiment is also provided. It is found that Seasat-A data can be important in defining the initial conditions which results in rapid maritime cyclogenesis. Currently conducted work is concerned with the development of a higher horizontal and vertical resolution global model, with an improved planetary boundary layer parameterization.

Duffy, D. G.↗

Numerical weather prediction in low latitudes

Based on the results of a number of numerical prediction experiments, the differential heating between land and ocean is an important and critical factor for investigation of phenomenon such as the onset of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. The pre-onset period during the month of May shows a rather persistent flow field in the monsoon region. At low levels the circulation exhibits anticyclonic excursions over the Arabian Sea, flowing essentially parallel to the west coast of India from the north. Over the Indian subcontinent the major feature is a shallow heat low over northern India. As the heat sources commence a rapid northwestward movement toward the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau, an interesting configuration of the large-scale divergent circulation occurs. A favorable configuration for a rapid exchange of energy from the divergent to the rotational kinetic energy develops. Strong low level monsoonal circulations evolve, attendant with that the onset of monsoon rains occurs. In order to test this observational sequence, a series of short-range numerical prediction experiments were initiated to define the initial heat sources.

Krishnamurti, T. N.↗

Operational numerical weather prediction on the CYBER 205 at the National Meteorological Center

The Development Division of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), having the responsibility of maintaining and developing the numerical weather forecasting systems of the center, is discussed. Because of the mission of NMC data products must be produced reliably and on time twice daily free of surprises for forecasters. Personnel of Development Division are in a rather unique situation. They must develop new advanced techniques for numerical analysis and prediction utilizing current state-of-the-art techniques, and implement them in an operational fashion without damaging the operations of the center. With the computational speeds and resources now available from the CYBER 205, Development Division Personnel will be able to introduce advanced analysis and prediction techniques into the operational job suite without disrupting the daily schedule. The capabilities of the CYBER 205 are discussed.

Deaven, D.↗

Techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction

The topics discussed include the following: multiscale application of the 5th-generation PSU/NCAR mesoscale model, the coupling of nonhydrostatic atmospheric and hydrostatic ocean models for air-sea interaction studies; a numerical simulation of cloud formation over complex topography; adaptive grid simulations of convection; an unstructured grid, nonhydrostatic meso/cloud scale model; efficient mesoscale modeling for multiple scales using variable resolution; initialization of cloud-scale models with Doppler radar data; and making effective use of future computing architectures, networks, and visualization software.

Droegemeier, Kelvin↗

A numerical weather prediction system designed to simulate atmospheric downburst phenomena

It is pointed out that an increase in the understanding of weather-related aircraft accidents can save hundreds of human lives and million of dollars. A better understanding regarding the interaction between aircraft operation and severe weather conditions can be obtained with the aid of flight simulator facilities. It is shown that numerical weather modeling is one of the most precise and cost-effective inputs for flight simulators in the long run. A comprehensive weather modeling system is being developed for the simulation of different scales of atmospheric phenomena. The modeling system utilizes two numerical weather models, including the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation system, and the Terminal Area Simulation System.

Chuang, S.↗

Research on regional numerical weather prediction

Extension of the predictive power of dynamic weather forecasting to scales below the conventional synoptic or cyclonic scales in the near future is assessed. Lower costs per computation, more powerful computers, and a 100 km mesh over the North American area (with coarser mesh extending beyond it) are noted at present. Doubling the resolution even locally (to 50 km mesh) would entail a 16-fold increase in costs (including vertical resolution and halving the time interval), and constraints on domain size and length of forecast. Boundary conditions would be provided by the surrounding 100 km mesh, and time-varying lateral boundary conditions can be considered to handle moving phenomena. More physical processes to treat, more efficient numerical techniques, and faster computers (improved software and hardware) backing up satellite and radar data could produce further improvements in forecasting in the 1980s. Boundary layer modeling, initialization techniques, and quantitative precipitation forecasting are singled out among key tasks.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

A nested-grid mesoscale numerical weather prediction model modified for Space Shuttle operational requirements

A nested-grid mesoscale atmospheric simulation system (MASS) is tested over Florida for the case of intense seabreeze-induced convection. The goal of this modeling system is to provide real-time aviation weather support which is designed to fit local terminal operations such as those supporting NASA's STS. Results from a 58 km and a 14.5 km nested-grid simulation show that this version of the MASS is capable of simulating many of the basic characteristics of convective complexes during periods of relatively weak synoptic scale flow regimes. However, it is noted that extensive development work is required with nested-grid cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes before many of the meso-beta scale features such as thunderstorm downdraft-produced bubble high pressure centers can be accurately simulated. After these schemes are properly tuned, MASS can be utilized to initialize microscale modeling systems.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

Applications of Sequential Estimation to Numerical Weather Prediction

The main objective of this cooperative research with NASA's Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is to use information about the atmosphere acquired from new types of observations, especially from satellites, in order to deepen our understanding of its behavior on time scales from hours to years. This is achieved by: (1) improving the methods for processing point observations into complete fields in space and time, using sequential estimation theory; and (2) analyzing low-frequency atmospheric variability by the methods of dynamical system theory, suitably modified to enhance practical predictability.

Ghil, M.↗