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At least 55 records · Page 3

Eigenvector analysis of some observed and model-generated Climatological fields

An empirical orthogonal function analysis of monthly mean synoptic fields computed with a general circulation model and the corresponding observed climatological patterns is presented. A computer program was used to compute the principal components of the data matrices representing global maps of various observed and model-generated climatological fields. The variables analyzed were: 500mb geopotential height, 850 mb temperature, and sea level pressure. It is concluded that eigenvector analysis of observed and model-generated synoptic climatological fields is a useful diagnostic aid in the evaluation of global model simulation. The maps of any climatological variables are readily decomposed into a few orthogonal components which account for a large fraction of the total spatial variance, and the observed and model-generated patterns may then be compared in terms of these principal components of the original data matrices.

Dennis, M.

An EOF Iteration Approach for Obtaining Homogeneous Radiative Fluxes from Satellites Observations

Conventional observations of climate parameters are sparse in space and/or in time and the representativeness of such information needs to be optimized. Observations from satellites provide improved spatial coverage than point observations however they pose new challenges for obtaining homogeneous coverage. Surface radiative fluxes, the forcing functions of the hydrologic cycle and biogeophysical processes, are now becoming available from global scale satellite observations. They are derived from independent satellite platforms and sensors that differ in temporal and spatial resolution and in the size of the footprint from which information is derived. Data gaps, degraded spatial resolution near boundaries of geostationary satellites, and different viewing geometries in areas of satellite overlap, could result in biased estimates of radiative fluxes. In this study, discussed will be issues related to the sources of inhomogeneity in surface radiative fluxes as derived from satellites; development of an approach to obtain homogeneous data sets; and application of the methodology to the widely used International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data that currently serve as a source of information for deriving estimates of surface and top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Introduced is an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) iteration scheme for homogenizing the fluxes. The scheme is evaluated in several ways including comparison of the inferred radiative fluxes against ground observations, both before and after the EOF approach is applied. On the average, the latter reduces the rms error by about 2-3 W/m2.

Zhang, Banglin

RUSHMAPS: Real-Time Uploadable Spherical Harmonic Moment Analysis for Particle Spectrometers

RUSHMAPS is a new onboard data reduction scheme that gives real-time access to key science parameters (e.g. moments) of a class of heliophysics science and/or solar system exploration investigation that includes plasma particle spectrometers (PPS), but requires moments reporting (density, bulk-velocity, temperature, pressure, etc.) of higher-level quality, and tolerates a lowpass (variable quality) spectral representation of the corresponding particle velocity distributions, such that telemetry use is minimized. The proposed methodology trades access to the full-resolution velocity distribution data, saving on telemetry, for real-time access to both the moments and an adjustable-quality (increasing quality increases volume) spectral representation of distribution functions. Traditional onboard data storage and downlink bandwidth constraints severely limit PPS system functionality and drive cost, which, as a consequence, drives a limited data collection and lower angular energy and time resolution. This prototypical system exploit, using high-performance processing technology at GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center), uses a SpaceCube and/or Maestro-type platform for processing. These processing platforms are currently being used on the International Space Station as a technology demonstration, and work is currently ongoing in a new onboard computation system for the Earth Science missions, but they have never been implemented in heliospheric science or solar system exploration missions. Preliminary analysis confirms that the targeted processor platforms possess the processing resources required for realtime application of these algorithms to the spectrometer data. SpaceCube platforms demonstrate that the target architecture possesses the sort of compact, low-mass/power, radiation-tolerant characteristics needed for flight. These high-performing hybrid systems embed unprecedented amounts of onboard processing power in the CPU (central processing unit), FPGAs (field programmable gate arrays), and DSP (digital signal processing) elements. The fundamental computational algorithm de constructs 3D velocity distributions in terms of spherical harmonic spectral coefficients (which are analogous to a Fourier sine-cosine decomposition), but uses instead spherical harmonics Legendre polynomial orthogonal functions as a basis for the expansion, portraying each 2D angular distribution at every energy or, geometrically, spherical speed-shell swept by the particle spectrometer. Optionally, these spherical harmonic spectral coefficients may be telemetered to the ground. These will provide a smoothed description of the velocity distribution function whose quality will depend on the number of coefficients determined. Successfully implemented on the GSFC-developed processor, the capability to integrate the proposed methodology with both heritage and anticipated future plasma particle spectrometer designs is demonstrated (with sufficiently detailed design analysis to advance TRL) to show specific science relevancy with future HSD (Heliophysics Science Division) solar-interplanetary, planetary missions, sounding rockets and/or CubeSat missions.

Figueroa-Vinas, Adolfo

Concurrent Inter-Model Spread of Boreal Winter Westerly Jet Meridional Positions Between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in CMIP6 Models

Here, this study investigates the inter-model spread of climatological extratropical westerly jets in boreal winter, using the historical simulation of 52 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models from 1851 to 2014. The results show that there is a substantial spread in the latitude of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet across models, characterised by large inter-model standard deviations to both the poleward and equatorward sides of the jet axis, although the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) performs well in simulating meridional position of westerly jets. Furthermore, we detect the consistency of inter-model jet position spread between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, based on the inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition and correlation of regional-averaged zonal winds. Specifically, the models that simulate the westerly jets poleward/equatorward relative to the MME position in one hemisphere also tend to simulate the jets poleward/equatorward in the other hemisphere. Accordingly, we define a global jet spread index to depict the concurrence of jet shift in the two hemispheres. The results of inter-model regression analyses based on this index indicate that the models positioning the jets poleward than the MME tend to simulate a wider Hadley Cell, a poleward-shifted Ferrel Cell in the Southern Hemisphere, enhanced precipitation in the subtropics and suppressed precipitation in the tropics, and warmer sea surface temperatures in the subtropics and mid-latitudes. The present results suggest that improving the simulation of jet positions in climate models requires a comprehensive consideration of thermal states in the tropics and subtropics/mid latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Numerical Analysis of Offshore Wind-Farm-Induced Drag Effects on Coastal Upwelling Dynamics

Wind farms extract momentum from the atmospheric flow, generating wind-speed deficits both within the plant, and extending downstream. When located offshore, these deficits modulate air-sea coupling, potentially impacting coastal upwelling in sensitive regions. We investigate impacts of wind farms on coastal upwelling using kilometre-scale, three-way-coupled simulations with the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport system for the US West Coast. Wind-farm effects are represented by a generalised turbine drag formulation, an idealised, height-dependent body force whose magnitude is systematically varied. This approach isolates the leading-order fluid-dynamical response in a realistic coastal configuration. The atmospheric adjustment exhibits an approximately linear relation between drag force and wind-speed deficit, with wakes that expand downstream and increase in magnitude as drag increases. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of sea-surface-temperature anomalies reveals the emergence of a canonical dipole pattern under strong drag forcing. Subsurface diagnostics show consistent shoaling of the mixed layer and suppressed upward velocities in areas near wind-farm region, accompanied by compensating enhancements of shoaling closer to the coast. These results identify turbine drag as a control parameter in assessing interactions between wind-farm wake and coastal upwelling and provide scaling relationships for understanding offshore wind-farm effects on the coastal circulation dynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

Propagation and Periodicity of Mars's Northern Annular Mode Modulates the Dust Cycle

Abstract We document the propagation of annular modes—zonally symmetric patterns of variability—in Mars's atmosphere using a reanalysis dataset. Mars's Northern Annular Mode (MNAM) sees anomalies of zonal‐mean zonal wind emerge near the subtropics and migrate poleward with a period of 150 days, similarly to Earth's Southern Annular Mode. The mechanism of propagation involves the interaction of the two leading empirical orthogonal functions that define the MNAM. Moreover, the propagation encourages alternating bands of surface wind stress to migrate polewards with a 150‐day period. In addition, a 150‐day periodicity in anomalous column dust optical depth most likely emerges in response to extrema of the MNAM. The combination of the impact of the MNAM's internally forced periodicity on the surface wind stress and the seasonal cycle may contribute to the inter‐annual variability of global dust events, as suggested by a Monte Carlo estimate that correctly approximates the observed incidence of global dust events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

OpenCRUMS USA: An Open Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Variability in Aerosol Reanalysis Data

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have called for exploring how these techniques can be used for exploring patterns in large climate datasets. To that regard, the U.S. Department of Energy AI for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) supported a pilot initiative called the Open Classification of Regimes in the Southeast USA (OpenCRUMS USA) project to explore how AI can be used to characterize modes of spatial variability in large climate datasets. For this study, we focus on comparing two methods for characterizing the modes of spatial variability of surface aerosol concentration over the Houston region: empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP) applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. We show that EOF analysis typically attributes spatial variability modes that span all of southeast Texas, prohibiting the attribution of spatial variability to localized regions. However, using LRP on the CNN classifier resolves the explanatory parameters at a finer spatial resolution than EOFs. This allows for the attribution of the spatial variability of surface aerosols to local regions of organic carbon which was not possible using EOFs. In addition, the LRP analysis also suggests that synoptic-scale transport of dust is most prevalent during anticyclonic and pretrough synoptic conditions as categorized by self-organizing maps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Investigating the Relative Contribution from Tropical Indo-Pacific SST to Asian Monsoon Precipitation Variability Using LIM

Abstract A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances the variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

A unified development of several techniques for the representation of random vectors and data sets

Linear vector space theory is used to develop a general representation of a set of data vectors or random vectors by linear combinations of orthonormal vectors such that the mean squared error of the representation is minimized. The orthonormal vectors are shown to be the eigenvectors of an operator. The general representation is applied to several specific problems involving the use of the Karhunen-Loeve expansion, principal component analysis, and empirical orthogonal functions; and the common properties of these representations are developed.

Bundick, W. T.

Study of the dynamics of orbital assemblies including interactions with geometrical appendages. Unified flexible spacecraft load program (LOAD): Final report and user's and operation manual

The addition of a dynamic loads computation capability to the Unified Flexible Spacecraft Simulation (UFSS) program is discussed. The added capability provides a means for determining the internal member loads due to the time-varying external loading conditions experienced by an orbiting spacecraft/cluster. The flexible bodies are modeled as a system of joints or nodes which are interconnected by weightless finite element members. All masses are lumped at the joints. The orthogonal functions used to describe the spatial deformation of the bodies are normally taken to be the orthonormal cantilever modes produced by a standard structural dynamics program.

Ness, D. J.

Ozone data and mission sampling analysis

A methodology was developed to analyze discrete data obtained from the global distribution of ozone. Statistical analysis techniques were applied to describe the distribution of data variance in terms of empirical orthogonal functions and components of spherical harmonic models. The effects of uneven data distribution and missing data were considered. Data fill based on the autocorrelation structure of the data is described. Computer coding of the analysis techniques is included.

Robbins, J. L.

Principal component analysis of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux

The paper considers principal component analysis of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux, a technique for extracting the salient features from a mass of data. The method applies particularly to the analysis of nonstationary ensembles, and its computations require the evaluation of eigenvalues of matrices. The Eispack matrix eigen system routines were used to analyze full-disk proportional-counter data from the X-ray event analyzer which was part of the Skylab experiment. Empirical orthogonal functions were derived for events in the soft X-ray spectrum between 2.5 and 20 A during different time periods, indicating that about 90% of the cumulative power of each analyzed flare is contained in the largest eigenvector. The first two largest eigenvectors are sufficient for an empirical curve fit through the raw data and a characterization of solar flares in the soft X-ray flux, and power spectra of two largest eigenvectors reveal a reported periodicity of about 5 min.

Teuber, D. L.

A three-dimensional simulation of transition and early turbulence in a time-developing mixing layer

The physics of the transition and early turbulence regimes in the time developing mixing layer was investigated. The sensitivity of the mixing layer to the disturbance field of the initial condition is considered. The growth of the momentum thickness, the mean velocity profile, the turbulence kinetic energy, the Reynolds stresses, the anisotropy tensor, and particle track pictures of computations are all examined in an effort to better understand the physics of these regimes. The amplitude, spectrum shape, and random phases of the initial disturbance field were varied. A scheme of generating discrete orthogonal function expansions on some nonuniform grids was developed. All cases address the early or near field of the mixing layer. The most significant result shows that the secondary instability of the mixing layer is produced by spanwise variations in the straining field of the primary vortex structures.

Cain, A. B.

Flap-lag-torsional dynamics of extensional and inextensional rotor blades in hover and in forward flight

The reduction of the O(cu epsilon) integro differential equations to ordinary differential equations using a set of orthogonal functions is described. Attention was focused on the hover flight condition. The set of Galerkin integrals that appear in the reduced equations was evaluated by making use of nonrotating beam modes. Although a large amount of computer time was needed to accomplish this task, the Galerkin integrals so evaluated were stored on tape on a permanent basis. Several of the coefficients were also obtained in closed form in order to check the accuracy of the numerical computations. The equilibrium solution to the set of 3n equations obtained was determined as the solution to a minimization problem.

Dasilva, C.

Tropical cyclone track and genesis forecasting using satellite microwave sounder data

Although many dynamical and statistical prediction schemes are available to forecasters, tropical cyclone track errors are still large. One primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones exist over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous data over these areas. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer on board the Nimbus 6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from the persistence forecast location, to speed change, to direction change and to intensity change. The significance of the regression equations is tested by a null hypothesis of zero correlation coefficient. It appears that significant information about tropical cyclone motion exists in the satellite-estimated mean layer temperatures, especially at upper levels. A physical interpretation of the statistical results is offered, and a one-storm-out independent test is used to test the stability of the equations. Finally, some further work is suggested.

Kidder, S. Q.

Improved HIRS2/MSU soundings using tropopause information

In the GLAS physical retrieval scheme, all temperature profiles are expressed as an expansion about a global mean using empirical orthogonal functions derived from a sample of radiosondes. Total ozone burden, a parameter highly correlated with tropopause height, should be useful in improving sounding accuracy. The ability to estimate tropopause information from layer mean temperatures suggests incorporating the layer mean temperatures estimated from the sounding itself to give estimates of tropopause pressure and temperature. While information completely independent of sounding and first guess data is preferable, additional information is in fact added to the system by the statistical relationships between tropopause temperature and pressure and layer mean temperature profiles. This should not be confused with use of statistical relationships between temperature profiles and satellite observations, which form the basis of a statistical retrieval system but is in no way used in the physical retrieval scheme.

Susskind, J.