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At least 55 records · Page 3

Evaluation of IMERG Satellite Precipitation Over the Land-Coast-Ocean Continuum – Part Ii: Quantification

To understand and manage water systems under a changing climate and meet an increasing demand for water, a quantitative understanding of precipitation is most important in coastal regions. The capabilities of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) V06B product for precipitation quantification are examined over three coastal regions of the United States: the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the East Coast, all of which are characterized by different topographies and precipitation climatologies. A novel uncertainty analysis of IMERG is proposed that considers environmental and physical parameters such as elevation and distance to the coastline. The IMERG performance is traced back to its components, i.e., passive microwave (PMW), infrared (IR), and morphing-based estimates. The analysis is performed using high-resolution, high-quality Ground Validation Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS) rainfall estimates as ground reference at the native resolution of IMERG of 30 min and 0.1°. IMERG Final (IM-F) quantification performance heavily depends on the respective contribution of PMW, IR, and morph components. IM-F and its components overestimate the contribution of light rainfall (<1 mm h−1) and underestimate the contribution of high rainfall rates (>10 mm h−1) to the total rainfall volume. Strong regional dependencies are highlighted, especially over the West Coast, where the proximity of complex terrain to the coastline challenges precipitation estimates. Other major drivers are the distance from the coastline, elevation, and precipitation types, especially over the land and coast surface types, that highlight the impact of precipitation regimes.

Atmosphere↗

ERTS-1 views the Great Lakes

The meteorological content of ERTS images, particularly mesoscale effects of the Great Lakes and air pollution dispersion is summarized. Summertime lake breeze frontal clouds and various winter lake-effect convection patterns and snow squalls are revealed in great detail. A clear-cut spiral vortex over southern Lake Michigan is related to a record early snow storm in the Chicago area. Marked cloud changes induced by orographic and frictional effects on Lake Michigan's lee shore snow squalls are seen. The most important finding, however, is a clear-cut example of alterations in cumulus convection by anthropogenic condensation and/or ice nuclei from northern Indiana steel mills during a snow squall situation. Jet aircraft condensation trails are also found with surprising frequency.

Lyons, W. A.↗

Numerical experiments with a general circulation model concerning the stratospheric distribution of ozone

Three experiments have been performed using a three-dimensional, spectral quasi-geostrophic model in order to investigate the sensitivity of ozone transport to tropospheric orographic and thermal effects and to the zonal wind distribution. In the first experiment, the ozone distribution averaged over the last 30 days of a 60 day transport simulation was determined; in the second experiment, the transport simulation was repeated, but nonzonal orographic and thermal forcing was omitted; and in the final experiment, the simulation was conducted with the intensity and position of the stratospheric jets altered by addition of a Newtonian cooling term to the zonal-mean diabatic heating rate. Results of the three experiments are summarized by comparing the zonal-mean ozone distribution, the amplitude of eddy geopotential height, the zonal winds, and zonal-mean diabatic heating.

Kurzeja, R. J.↗

A Theory for the Response of Tropical Moist Convection to Mechanical Orographic Forcing

Abstract Spatial patterns of tropical rainfall are strongly influenced by mountains. Although theories for precipitation induced by convectively stable upslope ascent exist for the midlatitudes, these do not represent the interaction of moist convection with orographic forcing. Here, we present a theory for convective precipitation produced by the mechanical interaction of a tropical ridge with a basic-state horizontal wind. Deviations from this basic state are represented as the sum of a “dry” perturbation, due to the stationary orographic gravity wave, and a “moist” perturbation that carries the convective response. The moist component dynamics are subject to the weak temperature gradient approximation; they are forced by the dry mode’s influence on lower-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Analytical solutions provide estimates of the precipitation distribution, including peak precipitation, upstream extent, and rain shadow extent. The theory can be used with several degrees of complexity depending on the technique used to compute the dry mode, which can be drawn from linear mountain wave theory or full numerical simulations. To evaluate the theory, we use a set of convection-permitting simulations with a flow-perpendicular ridge in a long channel. The theory makes a good prediction for the cross-slope precipitation profile, indicating that the organization of convective rain by orography can be quantitatively understood by considering the effect of stationary orographic gravity waves on a lower-tropospheric convective quasi-equilibrium state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable-Resolution CESM

Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a dynamical downscaling method that can reach spatiotemporal scales needed for regional climate assessments. Over the years, several users of VRGCMs have assumed where the location and extent of the refinement domain should be based on knowledge of the prevailing storm tracks and resolution dependence of important regional climate processes (e.g., atmospheric rivers [ARs] and orographic uplift), but the effect of high-resolution domain size and extent on the simulation of downstream hydroclimatic phenomena has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to perform such a test. To do this, three VR-CESM grids were generated that span the entire, two thirds, and one third of the North Pacific and evaluated for a 30-year climatology using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocols. Simulations are compared with reanalysis products offshore (fifth-generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis [ERA5]) and onshore (Livneh, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42, and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) of the western United States. The westward expansion of refinement domain influenced integrated vapor transport (IVT), which was generally high biased but minimally impacted AR characteristics. Due to slight differences in landfalling AR counts in the western United States, California winter precipitation generally improved with westward expansion of the refinement domain. Western U.S. mountain snowpack and surface temperatures were insensitive to refinement domain size and were more influenced by changes in topographic resolution and/or land surface model version. Here, given minimal dependence of simulated western U.S. hydroclimate on refinement domain size over the North Pacific, we advise future VR-CESM studies to focus grid resolution on better resolving land surface heterogeneity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of the GLA fourth order model to changes in horizontal resolution and terrain heights

The effects the selection of the orographic data for the boundary conditions has on results of simulations with the NASA-Goddard Laboratory for Atmospherics fourth order GCM were examined. Two different lower boundary conditions were compared in generating preliminary weather forecasts: mean areally averaged heights, and an enhanced significant height orography for rugged terrain. The latter condition was developed to emphasize the effects the tallest peaks in a given region have on the atmospheric flow by considering only the highest 1/3 of the 1 deg x 1 deg values in the averaging process. Simulations were carried out for five 10 day forecasts with a 4 deg lat x 5 deg long resolution and six with a horizontal grid resolution of 2 deg lat by 2.5 deg long, three with each boundary condition. The rms errors of the sea level pressure and the 500 mb geopotential heights were calculated. The mean errors decreased after the second or third day with the enhanced significant height orography.

Pfaendtner, J.↗

On the influence of orography on large-scale atmospheric flow

The steady response to orography as described by shallow-water equations on the sphere is examined in an attempt to provide insight into the dynamical effects of large-scale orographic features on atmospheric motion. The model equations and the zonal flows and orography used in the study are described. The results for simple mountains and for the earth orography are given. The two-dimensional nature of the horizontal propagation on the sphere is emphasized. The results give interesting indications of the regions of influence of mountains and suggest that quantitative theories of the stationary waves must involve a full representation of the spherical domain.

Grose, W. L.↗

Atmospheric electric field and current configurations in the vicinity of mountains

A number of investigations have been conducted regarding the electrical distortion produced by the earth's orography. Hays and Roble (1979) utilized their global model of atmospheric electricity to study the effect of large-scale orographic features on the currents and fields of the global circuit. The present paper is concerned with an extension of the previous work, taking into account an application of model calculations to orographic features with different configurations and an examination of the electric mapping of these features to ionospheric heights. A two-dimensional quasi-static numerical model of atmospheric electricity is employed. The model contains a detailed electrical conductivity profile. The model region extends from the surface to 100 km and includes the equalization layer located above approximately 70 km. The obtained results show that the electric field and current configurations above mountains depend upon the curvature of the mountain slopes, on the width of the mountain, and on the columnar resistance above the mountain (or mountain height).

Tzur, I.↗

Modeling impacts of ice-nucleating particles from marine aerosols on mixed-phase orographic clouds during 2015 ACAPEX field campaign

Abstract. A large fraction of annual precipitation over the western United States comes from wintertime orographic clouds associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). Transported African and Asian dust and marine aerosols from the Pacific Ocean may act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) to affect cloud and precipitation properties over the region. Here we explored the effects of INPs from marine aerosols on orographic mixed-phase clouds and precipitation at different AR stages for an AR event observed during the 2015 ACAPEX field campaign under low dust (<0.02 cm−3) conditions. Simulations were conducted using the chemistry version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with the spectral-bin microphysics at 1 km grid spacing, with ice nucleation connected with dust and marine aerosols. By comparing against airborne and ground-based observations, accounting for marine INP effects improves the simulation of AR-precipitation. The marine INPs enhance the formation of ice and snow, leading to less shallow warm clouds but more mixed-phase and deep clouds, as well as to a large spillover effect of precipitation after AR landfall. The responses of cloud and precipitation to marine INPs vary with the AR stages, with more significant effects before AR landfall and post-AR than after AR landfall, mainly because the moisture and temperature conditions change with the AR evolution. This work suggests weather and climate models need to consider the impacts of marine INPs since their contribution is notable under low dust conditions despite the much lower relative ice nucleation efficiency of marine INPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A study of the effect of synoptic scale processes in GCM modelling

Research was conducted to help modeling groups at NASA to develop better weather forecasting and general circulation models (GCM) for activities relating to the meteorological uses of satellite data. The focus was on the physical processes that were being simulated by models: radiative effects and latent heat release associated with clouds; orographic influences; and heat transfer at the ocean and ice surfaces. An attempt was made to deduce the role of diabatic heating in North Atlantic cyclogenesis and in the global heat budget. Inferences were made in four studies: heat budget statistics from GCM assimilations; dynamics of north Atlantic cyclones; Cage-type energy budget calculations; and grid scale cloud formation. Mechanisms that were responsible for the variability and structure of the atmospheric on a hemispheric scale were studied by a hybrid of statistical analysis and theoretical modeling. Variability and structure are both related to synoptic scale processes through baroclinic and barotropic energy transformations.

Herman, Gerald F.↗

Pressure Deficit in Gale Crater and a Larger Northern Polar Cap After the MY34 Global Dust Storm

We describe the model-independent analysis technique of Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) pressure and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) data in de la Torre Juárez et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169945479.90436599/v1) that compared multiple years of surface pressures on Gale before, during, and after the Global Dust Storm of Mars Year 34. The analysis found (a) representative pressure scale heights over Gale; (b) that the storm was followed by a pressure deficit at Gale; (c) the following C storms did not eliminate the deficit; (d) changes in the duration of the polar caps condensation seasons, with an early start of the North Polar (NP) ice cap growing season the year before the Great Dust Storm (GDS) and a late signature of the end of the expansion season thereafter, changes consistent with a larger growth phase of the NP cap; (e) MCS observed a larger than usual NP cap; and (f) cold temperature anomalies over the NP and warm over the Southern Pole after the storm. We also show that the analysis of observed MSL pressure data alone filters out effects on the pressure signal that are attributable to dynamical and orographic processes in a recent model analysis that makes similar interpretations as our 2019 study. One additional Mars year of observations is included to eliminate early concerns about sensor drifts. Noting that a similar NP anomaly was observed with MCS data after the last early GDS in MY25, and not the later GDS of MY27, the results suggest a possible unique effect of early GDSs.

Manuel de la Torre Juárez↗

Systematic Satellite Observations of the Impact of Aerosols from Passive Volcanic Degassing on Local Cloud Properties

The impact of volcanic emissions is a significant source of uncertainty in estimations of aerosol indirect radiative forcing, especially with respect to emissions from passive de-gassing and minor explosions. Understanding the impact of volcanic emissions on indirect radiative forcing is important assessing present day atmospheric properties and also to define the pre-industrial baseline to assess anthropogenic perturbations. We present observations of the time-averaged indirect aerosol effect within 200 km downwind of isolated island volcanoes in regions of low present-day aerosol burden using MODIS and AATSR data. Retrievals of aerosol and cloud properties at Kilauea (Hawaii), Yasur (Vanuatu) and Piton de la Fournaise (Reunion) are rotated about the volcanic vent according to wind direction, so that retrievals downwind of the volcano can be averaged to improve signal to noise ratio. The emissions from all three volcanoes, including those from passive degassing, strombolian activity and minor explosions lead to measurably increased aerosol optical depth downwind of the active vent. Average cloud droplet effective radius is lower downwind of the volcano in all cases, with the peak difference in effective radius ranging from 48 microns at the different volcanoes. A comparison of these observations with cloud properties at isolated islands with no significant source of aerosol suggests that these patterns are not purely orographic in origin. This approach sets out a first step for the systematic measurement of the effects of present day low altitude volcanic emissions on cloud properties, and our observations of unpolluted, isolated marine settings may capture processes similar to those in the preindustrial marine atmosphere.

cloud properties↗

Integrated and spectral energetics studies of the GLAS general circulation model

Integrated and spectral energetics of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) general circulation model are compared with observations and examined when subdivided beyond hemispheric integrals. In the monthly mean zonal averages, qualitative improvements are found over previous versions of the model in eddy kinetic energy and barotropic conversions although vertical shear above the subtropical jet remains weak. This paper traces this problem to the erroneous growth of kinetic energy above strong jets, shows that this difficulty is common to all orographic general circulation models, and suggests that this problem has significant effects on upper-level long-wave predictability. In particular, it is considered whether hemispherically integrated kinetic energy or low-wavenumber spectral coefficients retain any skill as the predictability limit. In the time-dependent comparisons, the model shows significant skill in predicting the hemispherically integrated eddy kinetic energy out to two weeks for one of two cases.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

Breakdown of vertically propagating two-dimensional gravity waves forced by orography

The propagation of orographic gravity waves into an atmosphere with exponentially decreasing density is simulated with a two-dimensional, nonlinear, time-dependent numerical model. After the stationary wave is established over the mountain, the model predicts that wave breaking causes a large reduction of the vertical momentum flux in the flow, not only at levels where wave breaking is present, but also far below the lowest occurrence of overturning. More than half of the decrease in momentum flux is explained by the presence of large amplitude, downward propagating waves, which are generated in regions of wave breaking. The downward propagating waves appear almost simultaneously with overturning, and have nonzero phase speeds, suggesting a strongly nonlinear generation mechanism that depends on local wave properties. The generation of these downward propagating waves is a robust process, insensitive to mountain height, mountain width, or density scale height. These results have important implications for observational studies of orographically generated waves as well as for schemes that seek to parameterize the effects of orogoraphy in large-scale models.

Bacmeister, Julio T.↗

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Orographic enhancement of rainfall over the Congo Basin

Abstract The Congo rainforest located in central equatorial Africa is an important, yet understudied part of the globe surrounded by complex orographic features. A primitive understanding of precipitation processes such as mesoscale convective dynamics magnifies uncertainties in the future climate projections of the hydrological cycle over the Congo. Furthermore, the effects of orography, which is an important forcing for convection and precipitation, are poorly resolved by climate models, and ill‐conceptualized over the Congo. To address this knowledge gap, perturbed orographic forcing experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical model in a high‐resolution convection‐permitting model setup. The model simulated selected dates in November 2014. The thunderstorms and rainfall simulated in the control run for the case study analyzed in this article compared reasonably well to satellite‐derived brightness temperature and rainfall data. The results from this case study show that the dynamical impact of increasing the height of the East African Highlands is the blocking of the lower‐tropospheric tropical easterlies. This weakening of the lower‐tropospheric zonal winds increases the windshear over the Congo Basin resulting in slower propagating, more intense mesoscale convective systems with enhanced rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Two Orographical Data Sets for the GLAS Fourth Order GCM

The development of a 2 deg latitude by 2.5 deg longitude version of the GLAS Fourth Order General Circulation Model has necessitated the specification of a correspondingly fine horizontal resolution orographic data set to act as a lower boundary condition for the GCM. The S1 topography attempts to relate the mean areally averaged height of such terrain while the Q3 topography emphasizes the effect of the flow of the tallest peaks in such regions by specifying an exaggerated significant height. In order to assess the relative merits of these two orographic data sets. A series of tests was initiated to evaluate the comparative weather forecasting and climate simulation skills of the GLAS Fourth Order GCM when the S1 and Q3 topographies are applied to the lower boundary. Three sets of Northern Hemispheric winter forecasts at the 2 deg x 2.5 deg resolution indicate that the Q3 topography gives slightly better results over the Northern Hemisphere than does the S1 topography. It is apparent that more forecasts will be necessary at both horizontal resolutions before any definitive conclusions are made regarding the choice of an optimal orographic data set.

Helfand, H. M.↗