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DOE OSTI2022

WECC Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study Report

This project, Wide-area Oscillation Analysis and Trending Study, is sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE) who tasked Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to conduct this research. Staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) have been involved in the project as observers and have provided advisory comments and suggestions. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the wide-area oscillatory behavior with respect to the significant generation-mix changes brought by the increased penetration of RES in the WECC system. The work performed in this project is considered to be complimentary to previous work by NERC/industry and covers the aspects that have not been studied or trended before. The trending analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the WECC system. In this report, how the changes in the generation mix can impact the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of WECC wide-area oscillation modes has been studied. Thorough data-based and model-based analyses have been carried out to analyze the current trends and then extended to evaluate the oscillation behaviors of the future WECC system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction of atmospheric neutrinos in DUNE’s horizontal-drift far-detector module

This paper reports on the capabilities in reconstructing and identifying atmospheric neutrino interactions in one of the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment’s (DUNE) far detector modules, a liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) with horizontal drift (FD-HD) of ionization electrons. The reconstruction is based upon the workflow developed for DUNE’s long-baseline oscillation analysis, with some necessary machine-learning models’ retraining and the addition of features relevant only to atmospheric neutrinos such as the neutrino direction reconstruction. Where relevant, the impact of the detection of the charged particles of the hadronic system is emphasized, and comparisons are carried out between the case when lepton-only information is considered in the reconstruction (as is the case for many neutrino oscillation experiments), versus when all particles identified in the LArTPC were included. Three neutrino direction reconstruction methods have been developed and studied for the atmospheric analyses: using lepton-only information, using all reconstructed particles, and using only correlations from reconstructed hits. The results indicate that incorporating more than just lepton information significantly improves the resolution of both neutrino direction and energy reconstruction. The angle reconstruction algorithms developed in this work result in no strong dependence on particle direction for reconstruction efficiencies or neutrino flavor identification. This comprehensive review of the reconstruction of atmospheric neutrinos in DUNE’s FD-HD LArTPC is the first step towards developing a first neutrino oscillation sensitivity analysis, which will ready DUNE for its first measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

PISCES two-detector covariance matrix fit for the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA's primary physics goals are the precise measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ , determine the neutrino mass ordering, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. In the standard NOvA three-flavor analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data constrain the FD prediction through a ratio method. While this allows for systematic uncertainties sharing the same effects in both detectors to cancel, it remains an FD-only fit and does not fully leverage the constraining power of the high-statistics ND. This analysis proposes a simultaneous ND+FD fit using the PISCES method. PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics) is a framework designed to support complex configurations such as a joint ND+FD fit. This allows PISCES to take full advantage of the ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. In PISCES, systematic uncertainties are encoded in a fractional covariance matrix, and statistical uncertainties are handled with a Poisson likelihood, making the approach well suited for low-statistics samples. For interpretability, we further use a Newton–Raphson + PCA method to recover per-systematic pulls from the covariance formulation. This poster presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, describes its implementation and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:000000↗

DOE OSTI2021

Grid-based minimization at scale: Feldman-Cousins corrections for light sterile neutrino search

High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments generally employ sophisticated statistical methods to present results in searches of new physics. In the problem of searching for sterile neutrinos, likelihood ratio tests are applied to short-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments to construct confidence intervals for the parameters of interest. The test statistics of the form Δχ2 is often used to form the confidence intervals, however, this approach can lead to statistical inaccuracies due to the small signal rate in the region-of-interest. In this paper, we present a computational model for the computationally expensive Feldman-Cousins corrections to construct a statistically accurate confidence interval for neutrino oscillation analysis. The program performs a grid-based minimization over oscillation parameters and is written in C++. Our algorithms make use of vectorization through Eigen3, yielding a single-core speed-up of 350 compared to the original implementation, and achieve MPI data parallelism by employing DIY. We demonstrate the strong scaling of the application at High-Performance Computing (HPC) sites. We utilize HDF5 along with HighFive to write the results of the calculation to file.

Wospakrik, Marianette↗

DOE OSTI2024

Three-Flavor Neutrino Oscillations at NOvA

NOvA, is a two-detector, long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment located at Fermilab, Batavia, IL, USA. It is designed primarily to constrain neutrino oscillation parameters such as the atmospheric mass squared splitting, $\Delta m^2_{32}$, the mixing angle, $\theta_{23}$, neutrino mass hierachy, and the CP-violating phase, $\delta_{CP}$, using $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance data. NOvA receives a high purity 900 KW instense beam of neutrinos and anti-neutrinos from Fermilab's Neutrinos at Main Injector (NuMI) beamline. NOvA used functionally identical finely granulated liquid scintillation detectors, both situated 14.6 mrad off-axis to the beam direction. The NOvA near detector observes un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and beam $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events, while the far detector, which is situated 809 km away from the near detector, records un-oscillated $\nu_\mu \ (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and oscillated $\nu_e \ (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events. We will discuss the neutrino oscillation analysis strategy at NOvA and the latest three-flavor oscillation results from 10 years of NOvA data in this talk.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Forced Oscillation Grid Vulnerability Analysis and Mitigation Using Inverter-Based Resources: Texas Grid Case Study

Forced oscillation events have become a challenging problem with the increasing penetration of renewable and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), especially when the forced oscillation frequency coincides with the dominant natural oscillation frequency. A severe forced oscillation event can deteriorate power system dynamic stability, damage equipment, and limit power transfer capability. This paper proposes a two-dimension scanning forced oscillation grid vulnerability analysis method to identify areas/zones in the system that are critical to forced oscillation. These critical areas/zones can be further considered as effective actuator locations for the deployment of forced oscillation damping controllers. Additionally, active power modulation control through IBRs is also proposed to reduce the forced oscillation impact on the entire grid. The proposed methods are demonstrated through a case study on a synthetic Texas power system model. The simulation results demonstrate that the critical areas/zones of forced oscillation are related to the areas that highly participate in the natural oscillations and the proposed oscillation damping controller through IBRs can effectively reduce the forced oscillation impact in the entire system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Search for a Sterile Neutrino in a 3+1 Framework using Wire-Cell Inclusive Charged-Current $\nu_e$ Selection with the BNB and NuMI beamlines in MicroBooNE

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Latest Three-Flavor Neutrino Oscillation Results from NOvA

NOvA, is a two-detector, long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment located at Fermilab, Batavia, IL, USA. It aims to constrain neutrino oscillation parameters by analyzing $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ disappearance and $\nu_e (\bar{\nu}_e)$ appearance data. The experiment uses the Neutrinos at Main Injector (NuMI) beamline at Fermilab, which delivers a high-purity 900 KW beam of neutrinos and anti-neutrinos. The detectors are functionally identical finely granulated liquid tracking calorimeters, both situated 14.6 mrad off-axis to the beam direction. The NOvA Near Detector (ND), situated 100 meters underground and 1 kilometer from the beam source, detects the un-oscillated $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ and beam $\nu_e (\bar{\nu}_e)$ events. The Far Detector (FD), located in Ash River, MN, USA, 809 kilometers from the ND, records the oscillated $\nu_e (\bar{\nu}_e)$ and the un-oscillated $\nu_\mu (\bar{\nu}_\mu)$ events. NOvA employs an extrapolation technique to predict the expected events at the Far Detector based on the Near Detector data, thereby providing a significant constraint on systematic uncertainties in the oscillation analyses. As NOvA accumulates more data, controlling these systematic uncertainties becomes increasingly important. This talk will detail the NOvA neutrino oscillation analysis framework and its approach to minimizing dominant systematic uncertainties using Near Detector data. The latest three flavor neutrino oscillation results based on a neutrino-beam exposure of $26.60 \times 10^{20}$ POT and an anti-neutrino beam exposure of $12.50\times 10^{20}$ POT and a novel low energy $\nu_e$ sample, will also be presented.

Choudhary, Brajesh↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for a Sterile Neutrino in a 3+1 Framework using the Wire-Cell Inclusive Charged-Current $ν_e$ Selection from MicroBooNE

A search for a sterile neutrino is being carried out in the MicroBooNE experiment within the 3+1 (three flavors of active neutrinos + one flavor of sterile neutrino) framework using neutrinos from the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at a baseline of about 470 m with an average neutrino energy of 800 MeV. The sensitivity of this search is built upon high performance inclusive charged-current electron neutrino ($ν_e$) and muon neutrino ($ν_µ$) event selections, which were utilized in the previous search for a low-energy excess (LEE) in the $ν_e$ energy spectrum at MicroBooNE. In this note, we present the results of a 3+1 oscillation fit considering both $ν_e$ appearance and $ν_e$/$ν_µ$ disappearance. Using the first three years’ BNB data, no evidence of a light sterile neutrino was found and 95% C.L. exclusion limits were calculated in the 3+1 neutrino oscillation parameter space. Notably, the cancellation between $ν_e$ disappearance and $ν_e$ appearance oscillations leads to a reduced oscillation effect in the $ν_e$ energy spectrum resulting in a degeneracy of the oscillation parameters. Such a degeneracy is expected to be mitigated by including the neutrino events from the off-axis Neutrino from the Main Injector (NuMI) beam. The prospect of a 3+1 oscillation analysis using both BNB and NuMI is reported and it is expected to considerably improve the sensitivity to 3+1 neutrino oscillations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

New Oscillation Results from the NOvA Experiment

Conclusions: We present an updated neutrino oscillation analysis with: 50% more neutrino beam data, updated simulation and reconstruction, including a new GENIE 3 cross-section model, updated extrapolation which mitigates differing detector acceptances. New 3-Jlavor oscillation results: Δm²₃₂ = (2.41±0.07)×10⁻³ eV², sin²θ₂₃ = 0.57 +0.04 -0.03 , exclude IH, δ = π/2 at > 3σ, disfavor NH, δ = 3π/2 at ~2σ. Looking ahead: We can reach 3σ hierarchy sensitivity for 30-50% of δ values, with the full dataset and an upgraded beam. Plan to reduce our largest systematics, those related to detector energy scale, with the results of our test beam experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar neutrino measurements using the full data period of Super-Kamiokande-IV

An analysis of solar neutrino data from the fourth phase of Super-Kamiokande (SK-IV) from October 2008 to May 2018 is performed and the results are presented. The observation time of the dataset of SK-IV corresponds to 2970 days and the total live time for all four phases is 5805 days. For more precise solar neutrino measurements, several improvements are applied in this analysis: lowering the data acquisition threshold in May 2015, further reduction of the spallation background using neutron clustering events, precise energy reconstruction considering the time variation of the PMT gain. The observed number of solar neutrino events in 3.49–19.49 MeV electron kinetic energy region during SK-IV is 65,443 − 388 + 390 ( stat . ) ± 925 ( syst . ) events. Corresponding B 8 solar neutrino flux is ( 2.314 ± 0.014 ( stat . ) ± 0.040 ( syst . ) ) × 10 6 cm − 2 s − 1 , assuming a pure electron-neutrino flavor component without neutrino oscillations. The flux combined with all SK phases up to SK-IV is ( 2.336 ± 0.011 ( stat . ) ± 0.043 ( syst . ) ) × 10 6 cm − 2 s − 1 . Based on the neutrino oscillation analysis from all solar experiments, including the SK 5805 days dataset, the best-fit neutrino oscillation parameters are sin 2 θ 12 , solar = 0.306 ± 0.013 and Δ m 21 , solar 2 = ( 6.1 0 − 0.81 + 0.95 ) × 10 − 5 eV 2 , with a deviation of about 1.5 σ from the Δ m 21 2 parameter obtained by KamLAND. The best-fit neutrino oscillation parameters obtained from all solar experiments and KamLAND are sin 2 θ 12 , global = 0.307 ± 0.012 and Δ m 21 , global 2 = ( 7.5 0 − 0.18 + 0.19 ) × 10 − 5 eV 2 . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of three-flavor neutrino oscillations from a PISCES two-detector fit to the NOvA Experiment data

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA s primary physics goals are to measure the neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ with high precision, determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, primarily via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. Extracting values for oscillation parameters from fits to data usually relies on treating systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters, a strategy that suffers from poor scalability as the number of uncertainties becomes larger. This work introduces PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics), a novel method that circumvents this scalability problem by encoding systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix. PISCES utilizes a nested minimization in which optimal systematic pulls are first computed using the covariance matrix in an inner minimization step, then the oscillation parameters are profiled over in the outer minimization. PISCES also uses a Poisson Likelihood term, making it ideal for the inclusion of low-statistic samples in the fits. PISCES is a flexible framework that also supports complex fits, such as a joint Near and Far detector fit. In the standard NOvA analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data indirectly constrain the FD prediction via a ratio method. PISCES, on the other hand, enables a simultaneous ND+FD fit, allowing the high-statistics ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. This thesis presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, details its implementation, and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method using the full NOvA 10-year data set. The results demonstrate that PISCES can successfully fit NOvA data while incorporating the constraints from the ND detectors consistently, using physically motivated systematic uncertainties to account for data/MC discrepancies.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics of Neutrino Oscillations and Neutrino Cross Sections using the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator-based neutrino experiment based in the US. NOvA uses an intense neutrino beam produced at Fermilab’s accelerator complex to make physics measurements of neutrino oscillations, neutrino cross sections, and much more. For its physics goals, NOvA uses two functionally-identical detectors. The Near Detector (ND) is situated at Fermilab, 1 km from the neutrino target and the Far Detector (FD) is located at Ash River, MN, a distance of 810 km from the neutrino source. The ND receives a high statistics neutrino flux which gives a unique opportunity for high-precision neutrino cross-section measurements and is used as a control for the oscillation analyses. The FD is used to analyze the appearance and disappearance of the neutrinos arriving from the Fermilab. The purpose of the oscillation analysis is to understand the dominance of matter over antimatter in the universe, to resolve the ordering of neutrino masses, and to resolve the octant of the neutrino mixing angle theta23. In this talk, I will give an overview of the NOvA experiment. I will also talk about the status of the NOvA’s cross-section physics program and the latest results from the oscillation analyses. I will also talk about the future prospects of the experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Final Search for Short-Baseline Neutrino Oscillations with the PROSPECT-I Detector at HFIR

The PROSPECT experiment is designed to perform precise searches for antineutrino disappearance at short distances (7–9 m) from compact nuclear reactor cores. This Letter reports results from a new neutrino oscillation analysis performed using the complete data sample from the PROSPECT-I detector operated at the High Flux Isotope Reactor in 2018. The analysis uses a multiperiod selection of inverse beta decay neutrino interactions with reduced backgrounds and enhanced statistical power to set limits on electron neutrino disappearance caused by mixing with sterile neutrinos with 0.2–20 eV 2 mass splittings. Inverse beta decay positron energy spectra from six different reactor-detector distance ranges are found to be statistically consistent with one another, as would be expected in the absence of sterile neutrino oscillations. The data excludes at 95% confidence level the existence of sterile neutrinos in regions above 3 eV 2 previously unexplored by terrestrial experiments, including all space below 10 eV 2 suggested by the recently strengthened Gallium Anomaly. The best-fit point of the Neutrino-4 reactor experiment’s claimed observation of short-baseline oscillation is ruled out at more than 5 standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining non-standard neutrino interactions with neutral current events at long-baseline oscillation experiments

We explore, for the first time, neutral-curren t events at long-baseline experiments to constrain vector and axial-vector neutrino non-standard interactions (NSI) with quarks. We leverage the flavor dependence of NSIs to perform an oscillation analysis in the neutral- current channel. We first introduce a framework to parametrize the effect of NSI on the cross section. Then, as an example, we analyze NOvA neutral-current data which provides significantly improved constraints on the axial-vector NSI parameters ${\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^A$, ${\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^A$ and ${\varepsilon}_{e\mu}^A$. This is highly complementary to constraints from SNO data, which, differently from long-baseline neutral current data, is not sensitive to isospin conserving NSIs ${\varepsilon}_u^A$ = ${\varepsilon}_d^A$. Additionally, we disfavor large values of the diagonal vectorial NSI ${\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^{VV}$ and ${\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^V$ which originate from the LMA-Dark solution. We also highlight the complementarity between NSI searches at oscillation experiments using charged current and neutral current channels.

neutrino interactions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining non-standard neutrino interactions with neutral current events at long-baseline oscillation experiments

We explore, for the first time, neutral-current events at long-baseline experiments to constrain vector and axial-vector neutrino non-standard interactions (NSI) with quarks. We leverage the flavor dependence of NSIs to perform an oscillation analysis in the neutral- current channel. We first introduce a framework to parametrize the effect of NSI on the cross section. Then, as an example, we analyze NOvA neutral-current data which provides significantly improved constraints on the axial-vector NSI parameters $ {\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^A $,$ {\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^A $ and $ {\varepsilon}_{e\mu}^A $. This is highly complementary to constraints from SNO data, which, differently from long-baseline neutral current data, is not sensitive to isospin conserving NSIs $ {\varepsilon}_u^A $ = $ {\varepsilon}_d^A $. Additionally, we disfavor large values of the diagonal vectorial NSI $ {\varepsilon}_{\mu \mu}^{VV} $ and $ {\varepsilon}_{\tau \tau}^V $ which originate from the LMA-Dark solution. We also highlight the complementarity between NSI searches at oscillation experiments using charged current and neutral current channels.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Velocity reconstruction in the era of DESI and Rubin/LSST. II. Realistic samples on the light cone

Reconstructing the galaxy peculiar velocity field from the distribution of large-scale structure plays an important role in cosmology. On one hand, it gives us an insight into structure formation and gravity; on the other, it allows us to selectively extract the kinetic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect from cosmic microwave background maps. In this work, we employ high-accuracy synthetic galaxy catalogs on the light cone to investigate how well we can recover the velocity field when utilizing the three-dimensional spatial distribution of the galaxies in a modern large-scale structure experiment such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time. In particular, we adopt the standard technique used in baryon acoustic oscillation analysis for reconstructing the Zel’dovich displacements of galaxies through the continuity equation, which yields a first-order approximation to their large-scale velocities. We investigate variations in the number density, bias, mask, area, redshift noise, and survey depth, as well as modifications to the settings of the standard reconstruction algorithm. Since our main goal is to provide guidance for planned kSZ analysis between DESI and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, we apply velocity reconstruction to a faithful representation of DESI spectroscopic and photometric targets. We report the cross-correlation coefficient between the reconstructed and the true velocities along the line of sight. For the DESI Y1 spectroscopic survey, we expect the correlation coefficient to be r ≈ 0.64, while for a photometric survey with δ z /(1+z) = 0.02, as is approximately the case for the Legacy Survey used in the target selection of DESI galaxies, r shrinks by half to r ≈ 0.31. Here, we hope the results in this paper can be used to inform future kSZ stacking studies and other velocity reconstruction analyses planned with the next generation of cosmology experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗