Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “PANDEMIC MODELING”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of oil and gas methane emissions in the Delaware and Marcellus basins using a network of continuous tower-based measurements

Abstract. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), emissions from oil and gas infrastructure contribute 30 % of all anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions in the US. Studies in the last decade have shown emissions from this sector to be substantially larger than bottom-up assessments, including the EPA inventory, highlighting both the increased importance of methane emissions from the oil and gas sector in terms of their overall climatological impact and the need for independent monitoring of these emissions. In this study we present continuous monitoring of regional methane emissions from two oil and gas basins using tower-based observing networks. Continuous methane measurements were taken at four tower sites in the northeastern Marcellus basin from May 2015 through December 2016 and five tower sites in the Delaware basin in the western Permian from March 2020 through April 2022. These measurements, an atmospheric transport model, and prior emission fields are combined using an atmospheric inversion to estimate monthly methane emissions in the two regions. This study finds the mean overall emission rate from the Delaware basin during the measurement period to be 146–210 Mg CH4 h−1 (energy-normalized loss rate of 1.1 %–1.5 %, gas-normalized rate of 2.5 %–3.5 %). Strong temporal variability in the emissions was present, with the lowest emission rates occurring during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, a synthetic model–data experiment performed using the Delaware tower network shows that the presence of intermittent sources is not a significant source of uncertainty in monthly quantification of the mean emission rate. In the Marcellus, this study finds the overall mean emission rate to be 19–28 Mg CH4 h−1 (gas-normalized loss rate of 0.30 %–0.45 %), with relative consistency in the emission rate over time. These totals align with aircraft top-down estimates from the same time periods. In both basins, the tower network was able to constrain monthly flux estimates within ±20 % uncertainty in the Delaware and ±24 % uncertainty in the Marcellus. The results from this study demonstrate the ability to monitor emissions continuously and detect changes in the emissions field, even in a basin with relatively low emissions and complex background conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

AERoBOND Project Summary

Under NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, the Adhesive-Free Bonding of Complex Composites (AERoBOND) project investigated off-stoichiometric epoxy polymers for fast, reliable assembly of epoxy matrix composite structures. The project goal was to demonstrate feasibility of the AERoBOND joining method by demonstrating mechanical properties greater than 80% of conventional co-cured materials while reducing structure weight by 1%. The project consisted of three convergent research areas: material and process development, systems analysis, and material and process modeling. Material and process development was the largest component of AERoBOND with approximately 6 FTE and 1WYE of support to formulate and characterize new resins, prepare carbon fiber prepregs, fabricate laminates, measure mechanical properties, analyze failure results, and select material and process improvements. The systems analysis activity estimated the potential reduction in part count and aircraft weight by comparing models of composite wing boxes with no fasteners (co-cured structure), fasteners in major joints (co-cured stringers), and fasteners in all joints. The materials and process modeling activity included a molecular model of the AERoBOND materials system to predict mechanical properties of resins with offset stoichiometry and a process model to predict the effect of resin formulation and processing conditions on the extent of mixing and degree of cure in a finished joint. As the number of airline passenger trips doubles in the next 20 years (IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2019), the increased demand for new commercial aircraft is now the single greatest technical challenge to the airframe manufacturing industry. To meet efficiency requirements, new aircraft must be fabricated primarily from high performance structural composites, but manufacturing processes are inherently slow with the largest bottleneck attributed to assembly and installation of fasteners (NASA/TM–2019-220428). Manufactures of commercial transport aircraft are compelled to install more than 100,000 redundant fasteners into bonded joints to prevent failures due to unpredictable weak bonds. In structural adhesive bonds, the interface between adherend and adhesive is nearly two-dimensional making it susceptible to minute quantities of contamination, which can cause weak bonds. Currently, bond strength assessment is only possible through destructive testing (i.e., breaking the joint). For these reasons, regulatory organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) often require redundant load paths in secondary-bonded, primary-structures to alleviate concerns with bond performance. The AERoBOND process enables reflow of matrix resin during assembly to eliminate the material discontinuity at the interface, thereby eliminating the dependence of mechanical performance on interfacial adhesion. The AERoBOND joint is equivalent to the interlaminar region obtained during a co-cure process, so joint performance depends on the cohesive properties of the matrix resin. Conventional co-cured structures, although too costly and complex for large-scale manufacturing, are trusted by manufacturers and regulators, and are certified for flight with few or no redundant fasteners.Systems analysis performed on a composite wing model at the scale of a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft indicated that >20,000 redundant fasteners per wing could be eliminated by implementing the AERoBOND joining method. A total weight reduction of 15% was predicted in a wing box by eliminating fasteners and thinning components that must no longer support localized fastener loads and accommodate fastener dimensions. Interlaminar shear fracture toughness measured by the end-notched flexure test was greater than 1 kJ/m2 (nearly 140% of the co-cured benchmark property), which is greatly in excess of the project goals for mechanical properties. Testing was planned to measure interlaminar tensile fracture toughness as well as interlaminar tensile and shear strengths using the same AERoBOND configuration, but was delayed due to closure of LaRC facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The AERoBOND process model is partially validated and available for experimental use. It allows the user to input AERoBOND process parameters such as material composition, laminate configuration, and cure cycle to predict the final cure state of the AERoBOND joint. A preliminary, multi-scale material model was developed to predict AERoBOND joint mechanical properties (stiffness and strength) based on the cure state of the joint provided by the process model. The timing for transition of this technology within NASA is excellent as NASA initiates new enduring projects to address composites manufacturing rate challenges. AERoBOND technology is well suited to AAVP/AATT objectives for rapid manufacturing of a composite wing. A minimal effort (1 FTE/$15k procurement/0 WYE) is proposed in FY21 to continue a minor mechanical testing effort and maintain a SAA with ASX composites to develop commercial quality prepreg material. An RFI with the composites industry is suggested to quantify the technology gap between the current TRL and the TRL needed for transition to industry. A moderate effort [3-4 FTE/$150k/1 WYE (~$115k)] is proposed in FY22 for the “high rate composites manufacturing” project currently in planning. The partnership with ASX Composites will be expanded to produce material for sub-element/element-scale “panel-off” activities. Industry partnerships with airframe manufacturers is an expected component to explore damage tolerance and environmental stability. Further development of multi-scale modeling tools (process model, meso-scale model, and molecular model) is planned to enhance and deliver tools for rapid manufacturing infusion.

Frank Louis Palmieri↗
DOE OSTI2020

A ``Tail" of Two Cities: Fatality-based Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution in New York City and Cook County, IL

I describe $SIR$ modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic in two U.S. urban environments, New York City (NYC) and Cook County, IL, from onset through the month of June, 2020. Since testing was not widespread early in the pandemic in the U.S., I do not use data on confirmed cases and rely solely on public fatality data to estimate model parameters. Fits to the first 20 days of data determine a degenerate combination of the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, and the mean time to removal from the infectious population, $\gamma^{-1}$, with $\gamma (R_0-1) = 0.25 (0.21)$ inverse days for NYC (Cook County). Equivalently, the initial doubling time was $t_d = 2.8 (3.4)$ days for NYC (Cook). The early fatality data suggest that both locations had infections in early February. I model the mitigation measures implemented in mid-March in both locations (distancing, quarantine, isolation, etc) via a time-dependent reproduction number $R_t$ that declines monotonically from $R_0$ to a sma ller asymptotic value, with a parameterized functional form. The timing (mid-March) and duration (several days) of the transitions in $R_t$ appear well determined by the data. However, the fatality data determine only a degenerate combination of the parameters $R_0$, the percentage reduction in social contact due to mitigation measures, $X$, and the infection fatality rate (IFR), $f$. With flat priors, based on simulations the NYC model parameters have 95.45\% credible intervals of $R_0 = 3.0-5.4$, $X= 80-99.9\%$ and $f=2-6\%$, with $5-13\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. A strong external prior indicating a lower value of $f$ or of $\gamma^{-1}$ would imply lower values of $R_0$ and $X$ and higher percentage infection of the population. For Cook County, the evolution was qualitatively different: after mitigation measures were implemented, the daily fatality counts reached a plateau for about a month before tailing off. This is consistent with an $SIR$ model that exhibits ``critical slowing-down", in which $R_t$ plateaus ! at a value just above unity. For Cook County, the 95.45\% credible intervals for the model parameters are much broader and shifted downward, $R_0=1.4-4.7$, $X=26-54\%$, and $f=0.1-0.6\%$ with $15-88\%$ of the population asymptotically infected. Despite the apparently lower efficacy of its social contact reduction measures, Cook County has had significantly fewer fatalities per population than NYC, $D_\infty/N=100$ vs. 270 per 100,000. In the model, this is attributed to the lower inferred IFR for Cook; an external prior pointing to similar values of the IFR for the two locations would instead chalk up the difference in $D/N$ to differences in the relative growth rate of the disease. I derive a model-dependent threshold, $X^{crit}_e$, for `safe' re-opening, that is, for easing of contact reduction that would not trigger a second wave; for NYC, the models predict that increasing social contact by more than 20\% from post-mitigation levels will lead to renewed spread, while for Cook County the threshold value is very uncertain, given the parameter degeneracies. The timing of 2nd-wave growth will depend on the amplitude of contact increase relative to $X^{crit}_e$ and on the asymptotic growth rate, and the impact in terms of fatalities will depend on the parameter $f$.

Frieman, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling airborne pathogen transport and transmission risks of SARS-CoV-2

An integrated modeling approach has been developed to better understand the relative impacts of different expiratory and environmental factors on airborne pathogen transport and transmission, motivated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to simulate spatial-temporal aerosol concentrations and quantified risks of exposure as a function of separation distance, exposure duration, environmental conditions (e.g., airflow/ventilation), and face coverings. The CFD results were combined with infectivity models to determine probability of infection, which is a function of the spatial-temporal aerosol concentrations, viral load, infectivity rate, viral viability, lung-deposition probability, and inhalation rate. Uncertainty distributions were determined for these parameters from the literature. Probabilistic analyses were performed to determine cumulative distributions of infection probabilities and to determine the most important parameters impacting transmission. This modeling approach has relevance to both pathogen and pollutant dispersion from expelled aerosol plumes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (R e ) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and R e is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced R e below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Work from Home Patterns across COVID-19 Waves: Implications for Future Transportation

The unprecedented rise in work from home (WFH) during COVID-19 poses challenges for the transportation engineers and planners with the travel demand forecasting. If WFH persists post-pandemic, it could influence traffic patterns, reducing peak-hour congestion. However, the evolution of WFH decisions across pandemic phases and varying socio-economic contexts remains unclear. This study examines factors influencing WFH choices using data from the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey. Findings reveal a decline in WFH participation from 60% during the first wave to 38% by the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A Geographically Weighted Regression model highlights the influence of socio-economic, household, and COVID-19-related variables, with notable spatial variability. Results show that younger individuals, females, and households with children are consistently more likely to WFH, while non-white and higher income individuals have an increasing likelihood for WFH as the pandemic progresses. These insights inform future transportation planning, emphasizing equity and decentralization strategies for post-pandemic commuting.

Patwary, Latif [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189174928)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October–19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A modeling framework for designing and evaluating curbside traffic management policies at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport

Emerging mobility technologies are changing the transportation system landscape. This is especially evident at airports, such as the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Without careful analysis, these changes could lead to inefficient and costly airport operations. This paper presents a modeling framework that integrates travel mode encoding, demand projection, and microsimulation to enable airports to develop, simulate, and evaluate curbside traffic managements policies and measure their impact. Here, the framework is utilized to analyze several traffic scenarios and policies for DFW: a baseline scenario which represents DFW traffic pattern as observed in 2018 and projected to 2045, a transit network company (TNC) electrification policy, a TNC queuing policy, a policy that increased transit ridership, a bus-only policy which considers the use of only buses inside DFW, an autonomous vehicle (AV) policy which investigates the impact of autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption on airport operations, and an example COVID-19 scenario which models the impact of the COVID19 pandemic. The simulations’ results demonstrate that: increasing the DFW transit ridership postpones the need for airport curbside expansion the most; encouraging shared-mobility with the bus-only policy produces the most savings in curbside congestion delays; automation and electrification for all passenger vehicle trips to/from DFW generates the most saving in fuel consumption and emissions; and uncontrolled AV adoption incurs the highest increase in fuel consumption, delay, and emissions and could require immediate airport capacity extension. Without policy intervention or investment in additional infrastructure capacity, these results predict the current operations would face significant congestion on high demand days starting as early as 2028. While derived in close partnership with DFW, the methodology presented here can be generalized to any airport.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emergent Recursive Multiscale Interaction in Complex Systems

This project studied the potential for multiscale group dynamics in complex social systems, including emergent recursive interaction. Current social theory on group formation and interaction focuses on a single scale (individuals forming groups) and is largely qualitative in its explanation of mechanisms. We combined theory, modeling, and data analysis to find evidence that these multiscale phenomena exist, and to investigate their potential consequences and develop predictive capabilities. In this report, we discuss the results of data analysis showing that some group dynamics theory holds at multiple scales. We introduce a new theory on communicative vibration that uses social network dynamics to predict group life cycle events. We discuss a model of behavioral responses to the COVID-19 pandemic that incorporates influence and social pressures. Finally, we discuss a set of modeling techniques that can be used to simulate multiscale group phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling

Abstract Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision‐makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID‐19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of heat transfer and AuNPs-mediated photo-thermal inactivation of E. coli at varying laser powers using single-phase CFD modeling

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemics, the demand for innovative and effective methods of bacterial inactivation has become a critical area of research, providing the impetus for this study. The purpose of this research is to analyze the AuNPs-mediated photothermal inactivation of E. coli. Gold nanoparticles irradiated by laser represent a promising technique for combating bacterial infection that combines high-tech and scientific progress. The intermediate aim of the work was to present the calibration of the model with respect to the gold nanorods experiment. The purpose of this work is to study the effect of initial concentration of E. coli bacteria, the design of the chamber and the laser power on heat transfer and inactivation of E. coli bacteria. Using the CFD simulation, the work combines three main concepts. 1. The conversion of laser light to heat has been described by a combination of three distinctive approximations: a- Discrete particle integration to take into account every nanoparticle within the system, b- Rayleigh-Drude approximation to determine the scattering and extinction coefficients and c- Lambert–Beer–Bourger law to describe the decrease in laser intensity across the AuNPs. 2. The contribution of the presence of E. coli bacteria to the thermal and fluid-dynamic fields in the microdevice was modeled by single-phase approach by determining the effective thermophysical properties of the water-bacteria mixture. 3. An approach based on a temperature threshold attained at which bacteria will be inactivated, has been used to predict bacterial response to temperature increases. The comparison of the thermal fields and temporal temperature changes obtained by the CFD simulation with those obtained experimentally confirms the accuracy of the light-heat conversion model derived from the aforementioned approximations. The results show a linear relationship between maximum temperature and variation in laser power over the range studied, which is in line with previous experimental results. It was also found that the temperature inside the microchamber can exceed 55 °C only when a laser power higher than 0.8 W is used, so bacterial inactivation begins. The experimental data allows to determinate the concentration of nanoparticles. This parameter is introduced into the mathematical model obtaining the same number of AuNPs. However, this assumption introduces a certain simplification, as in the mathematical model the distribution of nanoparticles is uniform. This work is directly connected to the use of gold nanoparticles for energy conversion, as well as the field of bacterial inactivation in microfluidic systems such as lab-on-a-chip. Presented mathematical and numerical models can be extended to the entire spectrum of wavelengths with particular use of white light in the inactivation of bacteria. This work represents a significant advancement in the field, as to the best of the authors’ knowledge, it is the first to employ a single-phase computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach specifically combined with the thermal inactivation of bacteria. Moreover, this research pioneers the use of a numerical simulation to analyze the temperature threshold of photothermal inactivation of E. coli mediated by gold nanorods (AuNRs). The integration of these methodologies offers a new perspective on optimizing bacterial inactivation techniques, making this study a valuable contribution to both computational modeling and biomedical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Validation of a Mechanistic COVID-19 Model for Translational Quantitative Systems Pharmacology – A Proof-of-Concept Model Development for Remdesivir

With the ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there is an urgent need to accelerate the traditional drug development process. Many studies identified potential COVID-19 therapies based on promising nonclinical data. However, the poor translatability from nonclinical to clinical settings has led to failures of many of these drug candidates in the clinical phase. In this study, we propose a mechanism-based, quantitative framework to translate nonclinical findings to clinical outcome. Adopting a modularized approach, this framework includes an in silico disease model for COVID-19 (virus infection and human immune responses) and a pharmacological component for COVID-19 therapies. Here, the disease model was able to reproduce important longitudinal clinical data for patients with mild and severe COVID-19, including viral titer, key immunological cytokines, antibody responses, and time courses of lymphopenia. Using remdesivir as a proof-of-concept example of model development for the pharmacological component, we developed a pharmacological model that describes the conversion of intravenously administered remdesivir as a prodrug to its active metabolite nucleoside triphosphate through intracellular metabolism and connected it to the COVID-19 disease model. After being calibrated with the placebo arm data, our model was independently and quantitatively able to predict the primary endpoint (time to recovery) of the remdesivir clinical study, Adaptive Covid-19 Clinical Trial (ACTT). Our work demonstrates the possibility of quantitatively predicting clinical outcome based on nonclinical data and mechanistic understanding of the disease and provides a modularized framework to aid in candidate drug selection and clinical trial design for COVID-19 therapeutics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vaccination compartmental epidemiological models for the delta and omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants

We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by incorporating vaccinated populations. We present two classes of models that differ depending on the immunological properties of the variant. The first one is for the delta variant, where we do not follow the dynamics of the vaccinated individuals since infections of vaccinated individuals were rare. The second one for the far more contagious omicron variant incorporates the evolution of the infections within the vaccinated cohort. We explore comparisons with available data involving two possible classes of counts, fatalities and hospitalizations. We present our results for two regions, Andalusia and Switzerland (including the Principality of Liechtenstein), where the necessary data are available. In the majority of the considered cases, the models are found to yield good agreement with the data and have a reasonable predictive capability beyond their training window, rendering them potentially useful tools for the interpretation of the COVID-19 and further pandemic waves, and for the design of intervention strategies during these waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Language models for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need for computational tools to automate and accelerate drug design for novel protein targets. We leverage deep learning language models to generate and score drug candidates based on predicted protein binding affinity. We pre-trained a deep learning language model (BERT) on ∼9.6 billion molecules and achieved peak performance of 603 petaflops in mixed precision. Our work reduces pre-training time from days to hours, compared to previous efforts with this architecture, while also increasing the dataset size by nearly an order of magnitude. For scoring, we fine-tuned the language model using an assembled set of thousands of protein targets with binding affinity data and searched for inhibitors of specific protein targets, SARS-CoV-2 Mpro and PLpro. We utilized a genetic algorithm approach for finding optimal candidates using the generation and scoring capabilities of the language model. Our generalizable models accelerate the identification of inhibitors for emerging therapeutic targets.

Blanchard, Andrew E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utility of Human In Vitro Data in Risk Assessments of Influenza A Virus Using the Ferret Model

Both in vitro and in vivo models are employed for assessing the pandemic potential of novel and emerging influenza A viruses in laboratory settings, but systematic examinations of how well viral titer measurements obtained in vitro align with results from in vivo experimentation are not frequently performed. We show that certain viral titer measurements following infection of a human bronchial epithelial cell line are positively correlated with viral titers in specimens collected from virus-inoculated ferrets and employ mathematical modeling to identify commonalities between viral infection progression between both models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

mRNA SARS-CoV-2 Immunization Confers Robust Antibody Response in Occupational Healthcare Workers and Fosters Workplace Safety

Immunization against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a major step in protecting the healthcare worker beyond standard pandemic precautions and infection control measures. Healthcare workers (HCW) are at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 exposure and infection placing burden on the workplace. Hence, reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection of HCWs serves multiple goals in the occupational health arena. These include protecting the health and safety of the HCW as well as reducing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the clinic and the larger workplace it serves. Furthermore, when HCWs demonstrate appropriate pandemic precautions and health practices, they serve as strategic models for other workers. Here, this modeling represents leadership which can inspire optimism and hope in a workforce beleaguered by the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗