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At least 55 records · Page 3

Theoretical evidence that root penetration ability interacts with soil compaction regimes to affect nitrate capture

Abstract Background and Aims Although root penetration of strong soils has been intensively studied at the scale of individual root axes, interactions between soil physical properties and soil foraging by whole plants are less clear. Here we investigate how variation in the penetration ability of distinct root classes and bulk density profiles common to real-world soils interact to affect soil foraging strategies. Methods We utilize the functional–structural plant model ‘OpenSimRoot’ to simulate the growth of maize (Zea mays) root systems with variable penetration ability of axial and lateral roots in soils with (1) uniform bulk density, (2) plow pans and (3) increasing bulk density with depth. We also modify the availability and leaching of nitrate to uncover reciprocal interactions between these factors and the capture of mobile resources. Key Results Soils with plow pans and bulk density gradients affected overall size, distribution and carbon costs of the root system. Soils with high bulk density at depth impeded rooting depth and reduced leaching of nitrate, thereby improving the coincidence of nitrogen and root length. While increasing penetration ability of either axial or lateral root classes produced root systems of comparable net length, improved penetration of axial roots increased allocation of root length in deeper soil, thereby amplifying N acquisition and shoot biomass. Although enhanced penetration ability of both root classes was associated with greater root system carbon costs, the benefit to plant fitness from improved soil exploration and resource capture offset these. Conclusions While lateral roots comprise the bulk of root length, axial roots function as a scaffold determining the distribution of these laterals. In soils with high soil strength and leaching, root systems with enhanced penetration ability of axial roots have greater distribution of root length at depth, thereby improving capture of mobile resources.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Sensitivity and comparison evaluation of Saturn 5 liquid penetrants

Results of a sensitivity and comparison evaluation performed on six liquid penetrants that were used on the Saturn 5 vehicle and other space hardware to detect surface discontinuities are described. The relationship between penetrant materials and crack definition capabilities, the optimum penetrant materials evaluation method, and the optimum measurement methods for crack dimensions were investigated. A unique method of precise developer thickness control was envolved, utilizing clear radiographic film and a densitometer. The method of evaluation included five aluminum alloy, 2219-T87, specimens that were heated and then quenched in cold water to produce cracks. The six penetrants were then applied, one at a time, and the crack indications were counted and recorded for each penetrant for comparison purposes. Measurements were made by determining the visual crack indications per linear inch and then sectioning the specimens for a metallographic count of the cracks present. This method provided a numerical approach for assigning a sensitivity index number to the penetrants. Of the six penetrants evaluated, two were not satisfactory (one was not sufficiently sensitive and the other was to sensitive, giving false indications). The other four were satisfactory with approximately the same sensitivity in the range of 78 to 80.5 percent of total cracks detected.

Jones, G. H.↗

Field Measurements of Penetrator Seismic Coupling in Sediments and Volcanic Rocks

Field experiments were conducted to determine how well a seismometer installed using a penetrator would be coupled to the ground. A dry-lake bed and a lava bed were chosen as test sites to represent geological environments of two widely different material properties. At each site, two half-scale penetrators were fired into the ground, a three-component geophone assembly was mounted to the aft end of each penetrator, and dummy penetrators were at various distances to generate seismic signals. These signals were detected by the penetrator-mounted geophone assembly and by a reference geophone assembly buried or anchored to surface rock and 1-m from the penetrator. The recorded signals were digitized, and cross-spectral analyses were performed to compare the observed signals in terms of power spectral density ratio, coherence, and phase difference. The analyses indicate that seismometers deployed by penetrators will be as well coupled to the ground as are seismometers installed by conventional methods for the frequency range of interest in earthquake seismology.

Nakamura, Y.↗

Quantifying and Improving International Space Station Survivability Following Orbital Debris Penetration

The increase of the orbital debris environment in low-earth orbit has prompted NASA to develop analytical tools for quantifying and lowering the likelihood of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station (ISS). NASA uses the Manned Spacecraft and Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) computer program to simulate the events that may cause crew loss following orbital debris penetration of ISS manned modules, including: (1) critical cracking (explosive decompression) of the module; (2) critical external equipment penetration (such as hydrazine and high pressure tanks); (3) critical internal system penetration (guidance, control, and other vital components); (4) hazardous payload penetration (furnaces, pressure bottles, and toxic substances); (5) crew injury (from fragments, overpressure, light flash, and temperature rise); (6) hypoxia from loss of cabin pressure; and (7) thrust from module hole causing high angular velocity (occurring only when key Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) equipment is damaged) and, thus, preventing safe escape vehicle (EV) departure. MSCSurv is also capable of quantifying the 'end effects' of orbital debris penetration, such as the likelihood of crew escape, the probability of each module depressurizing, and late loss of station control. By quantifying these effects (and their associated uncertainties), NASA is able to improve the likelihood of crew survivability following orbital debris penetration due to improved crew operations and internal designs.

Williamsen, Joel↗

Quick-Connect Windowed Non-Stick Penetrator Tips for Rapid Sampling

Standard penetrator sampling systems were designed in order to allow for sampling via penetrators to produce a full set of sample acquisitions including volatile liquids, fine powders, and solid fragments. A gravity harpoon sampler has been designed with a removable tip and a quick coupling. The separation allows for sample handling and eliminates sample cross-contamination. Also, this design allows for multiple use of the penetrator body, which is the largest and heaviest part of the penetrator, while allowing for multiple changes of the light-mass, penetrator tip to avoid sample cross-contamination. The penetrator tip design has been improved by adding a spring trap to retain the sample, as well as a means for connecting to a quick coupling. Quick connect tips have been demonstrated in a sample handling carousel. The penetrator was released and rewound and the tips were released into a circular platter for rotation into instrument stations. The pyro-harpoon sampler was fabricated and tested with a NASA Standard Initiator (NSI) pyrotechnic charge. Initial tests collected cryogenic ice, but removal of the small pyro-harpoon from the ice was difficult. A brass metal sheath was then fitted over the harpoon tip, and removal from the ice was greatly alleviated by leaving the sheath in the ice. Quartz windows in the tips allow direct optical and spectral imaging and gas chromatography-mass spectrometer (GCMS) pyrolysis, and were found to survive impact. All systems were successfully tested by dropping into sand and into cryogenic ice.

Sherritt, Stewart↗

Error-Field Penetration Thresholds in Ohmically Heated ITER and SPARC Plasmas

The critical n=1, n=2, and n=3 error-field amplitudes needed to trigger error-field penetration in ITER and SPARC, steady-state, ohmically heated plasmas are calculated using a standard asymptotic matching approach. The calculation incorporates plasma impurities, trapped particles, the bootstrap current, and neoclassical poloidal flow-damping. The energy confinement time is specified by the neo-Alcator scaling law in the low-density linear ohmic confinement (LOC) regime, and by the ITER-89P L-mode scaling law in the high-density saturated ohmic confinement regime (SOC) regime. The response of the plasma in the inner region is calculated using a linearized version of the four-field model. At the normal operating electron number density, diamagnetic levels of rotation are found to be sufficient to protect ITER and SPARC ohmically heated plasmas from m=2/n=1 error-field penetration. On other hand, SPARC, and especially ITER, ohmically heated plasmas may be vulnerable to n>1 error-field penetration. ITER and SPARC ohmically heated plasmas are also slightly more susceptible to error-field penetration when the electron fluid at the rational surface rotates in the ion diamagnetic direction, rather than the electron diamagnetic direction. At electron number densities that are sufficiently low that the plasma lies in the LOC confinement regime, the error-field penetration threshold increases with increasing density. However, as soon as the electron number density becomes large enough that the plasma enters the SOC regime, the increase in the error-field penetration threshold with increasing density levels off.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Nonlinear modeling of the scaling law for the m/n = 3/2 error field penetration threshold

The scaling law for the m/n=3/2 error field (EF) penetration threshold is predicted numerically based on nonlinear single-fluid and two-fluid modeling using the TM1 code. The simulated penetration threshold of radial magnetic field b r at the plasma edge is scaled to the electron density n e , temperature T e , viscous time τ μ , toroidal field B t and the natural frequency ω in the form of b r /B t ∝n e αn T e αT τ μ αμ B t αB ω αω by scanning these parameters separately. Here, α n , α T , α μ , α B and α ω are the scaling coefficients on n e , T e , τ μ , B t and ω, respectively. Single-fluid modeling shows that the 3/2 EF threshold scales as b r /B t ∝n e 0.56 T e 0.6 τ μ -0.59 B t -1.15 ω, which is similar with the analytical scaling law in both the Rutherford and visco-resistive regimes. Yet, two-fluid modeling shows that the scaling law differs significantly in particular regarding the dependence on plasma rotation. In detail, the scaling coefficient α n on density decreases from 0.67 to 0.56 and α T on temperature decreases from 0.67 to 0.32, while α μ on viscous time is around -0.45 and α B on toroidal field decreases slightly from -1.15 to -1, when the ratio |ω E /ω *e | between plasma rotation frequency ω E and diamagnetic drift frequency ω *e varies from 0 to 10. Scans of the plasma rotation reveals that the penetration threshold linearly depends on the perpendicular rotation frequency (or natural frequency) ω ⊥e =ω E +ω *e , and there is a minimum in the required field amplitude when ω ⊥e 0. In addition, the enduring mystery of non-zero penetration threshold at zero plasma natural frequency in EF experiments is resolved by two-fluid simulations. We report that the very small island and smooth bifurcation in EF penetration near zero frequency is hard to detect in the experiment, leading to a finite penetration threshold within the capability of the experimental measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

On how avalanches penetrate the SOL and broaden heat loads

Recent experiments reported a correlation between power law core temperature spectra and Dα emission, suggesting that heat avalanches penetrate the SOL. This paper derives a threshold criterion for avalanche penetration using a reduced model. Avalanches with ($\bigtriangledown$$\tilde{T}$) rms > $\bigtriangledown$$\tilde{T}$ crit at the separatrix are predicted to penetrate, and so broaden the SOL and heat load distribution. $\bigtriangledown$$\tilde{T}$ crit is ~ 1/$τ$ ∥ , where $τ$ ∥ is the parallel heat flow time through the SOL. Penetration occurs when avalanches are strong enough to steepen sufficiently to shock at the separatrix. A positive correlation is found between the nonlinear drive for steepening and the penetration depth. In particular, penetration depth exceeds that of the heuristic drift limit when shocks form. Implications for numerical and physical experiments are also discussed.

SOL heat load↗

Impacts of Price Formation Efforts Considering High Renewable Penetration Levels and System Resource Adequacy Targets

Future markets with very high penetrations of renewable energy could have many low- to zero-cost periods, which would reduce energy revenues for the generation fleet. This can impact the ability of resources that are needed for long-term reliability to recover operating and capital costs. This paper explores the impact of an alternative pricing mechanism, relaxed minimum pricing, on revenue sufficiency on existing and future resource mixes, including those with high penetrations of wind and solar. This study evaluates eight scenarios encompassing three different sensitivity categories: (1) one alternative pricing mechanism versus traditional LMP pricing, (2) high versus low renewable penetration levels, and (3) using a resource mix that has been adjusted to a preset resource adequacy target versus one that contains a full set of resources. Results show renewable penetration has a greater impact on pricing and resulting profits than does the adjusted resource mix, the two pricing methods have modest variations in profits, and prices under the higher renewable penetration case were higher than under low renewable penetration. These conclusions are not intended to be direct predictions for future outcomes but rather to lead to additional research on the impacts of pricing on investment incentives and future resource adequacy targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Penetration of Air Jets Issuing from Circular, Square, and Elliptical Orifices Directed Perpendicularly to an Air Stream

An experimental investigation was conducted to determine the penetration of air jets d.irected perpendicularlY to an air stream. Jets Issuing from circular, square, and. elliptical orifices were investigated. and. the jet penetration at a position downstream of the orifice was determined- as a function of jet density, jet velocity, air-stream d.enaity, air-stream velocity, effective jet diameter, and. orifice flow coeffIcient. The jet penetrations were determined for nearly constant values of air-stream density at three tunnel-air velocities arid for a large range of Jet velocities and. densities. The results were correlated in terms of dimensionless parameters and the penetrations of the various shapes were compared. Greater penetration was obtained. with the square orifices and the elliptical orifices having an axis ratio of 4:1 at low tunnel-air velocities and low jet pressures than for the other orifices investigated. The square orifices gave the best penetrations at the higher values of tunnel-air velocity and jet total pressure.

Ruggeri, Robert S.↗

On the correlation between a magnetopause penetration parameter and FTE occurrence

Impulsive plasma penetration has been proposed as a means by which solar wind plasma may cross the magnetopause and enter the magnetosphere. It has been predicted that plasma entry by this means will be correlated with a magnetopause penetration parameter. One of the most important signatures of plasma entry into the magnetosphere are flux transfer events (FTEs). If plasma penetration is an important mechanism in plasma entry, then it would be expected that the occurrence of flux transfer events will correlate with the penetration parameter. On the other hand, if reconnection is, as widely believed, the dominant mechanism for the entry of solar-wind plasma into the magnetosphere, then plasma entry will be correlated with the north/south IMF component. AMPTE UKS data show that the occurrence of FTE signatures is better correlated with the direction of the IMF than with the penetration parameter. Thus, impulsive plasma penetration is unlikely to be the mechanism responsible for FTEs.

Smith, M. F.↗

Penetration experiments in aluminum 1100 targets using soda-lime glass projectiles

The cratering and penetration behavior of annealed aluminum 1100 targets, with thickness varied from several centimeters to ultra-thin foils less than 1 micrometer thick, were experimentally investigated using 3.2 mm diameter spherical soda-lime glass projectiles at velocities from 1 to 7 km/s. The objective was to establish quantitative, dimensional relationships between initial impact conditions (impact velocity, projectile diameter, and target thickness) and the diameter of the resulting crater or penetration hole. Such dimensional relationships and calibration experiments are needed to extract the diameters and fluxes of hypervelocity particles from space-exposed surfaces and to predict the performance of certain collisional shields. The cratering behavior of aluminum 1100 is fairly well predicted. However, crater depth is modestly deeper for our silicate impactors than the canonical value based on aluminum projectiles and aluminum 6061-T6 targets. The ballistic-limit thickness was also different. These differences attest to the great sensitivity of detailed crater geometry and penetration behavior on the physical properties of both the target and impactor. Each penetration experiment was equipped with a witness plate to monitor the nature of the debris plume emanating from the rear of the target. This plume consists of both projectile fragments and target debris. Both penetration hole and witness-plate spray patterns systematically evolve in response to projectile diameter/target thickness. The relative dimensions of the projectile and target totally dominate the experimental products documented in this report; impact velocity is an important contributor as well to the evolution of penetration holes, but is of subordinate significance for the witness-plate spray patterns.

Horz, Friedrich↗

Stability of Full Penetration, Flat Position Weld Pools

The dynamics of the dropthrough distance of a full penetration, flat position weld pool is described. Close to incipient root side penetration the dropthrough is metastable, so that a small drop in power can cause a loss of penetration if not followed soon enough by a compensating rise in power. The SPA (Soft Plasma Arc) process with higher pressure on top of the weld pool loses penetration more quickly than the GTA (Gas Tungsten Arc) process. 2195 aluminum-lithium alloy with a lower surface tension loses penetration more quickly than 2219 aluminum alloy. An instance of loss of penetration of a SPA weld in 2195 aluminum-lithium alloy is discussed in the light of the model.

Nunes, Arthur C., Jr.↗

Development of a Deep-Penetrating, Compact Geothermal Heat Flow System for Robotic Lunar Geophysical Missions

Geothermal heat flow measurements are a high priority for the future lunar geophysical network missions recommended by the latest Decadal Survey of the National Academy. Geothermal heat flow is obtained as a product of two separate measurements of geothermal gradient and thermal conductivity of the regolith/soil interval penetrated by the instrument. The Apollo 15 and 17 astronauts deployed their heat flow probes down to 1.4-m and 2.3-m depths, respectively, using a rotary-percussive drill. However, recent studies show that the heat flow instrument for a lunar mission should be capable of excavating a ~3-m deep hole to avoid the effect of potential long-term changes of the surface thermal environment. For a future robotic geophysical mission, a system that utilizes a rotary/percussive drill would far exceed the limited payload and power capacities of the lander/rover. Therefore, we are currently developing a more compact heat flow system that is capable of 3-m penetration. Because the grains of lunar regolith are cohesive and densely packed, the previously proposed lightweight, internal hammering systems (the so-called moles ) are not likely to achieve the desired deep penetration. The excavation system for our new heat flow instrumentation utilizes a stem which winds out of a pneumatically driven reel and pushes its conical tip into the regolith. Simultaneously, gas jets, emitted from the cone tip, loosen and blow away the soil. Lab tests have demonstrated that this proboscis system has much greater excavation capability than a mole-based heat flow system, while it weighs about the same. Thermal sensors are attached along the stem and at the tip of the penetrating cone. Thermal conductivity is measured at the cone tip with a short (1- to 1.5-cm long) needle sensor containing a resistance temperature detector (RTD) and a heater wire. When it is inserted into the soil, the heater is activated. Thermal conductivity of the soil is obtained from the rate of temperature increase during the heating. By stopping during the excavation, it is possible to measure thermal conductivities at different depths. The gas jets are turned off when the penetrating cone reaches the target depth. Then, the stem pushes the needle sensor into the undisturbed soil at the bottom of the hole and carries out a thermal conductivity measurement. When the measurement is complete, the system resumes excavation. RTDs, placed along the stem at short (approx 30 cm) intervals, will monitor long-term temperature stability of the subsurface. Temperature in the shallow subsurface would fluctuate with the diurnal, annual, and precession cycles of the Moon. These thermal waves penetrate to different depths into the regolith. Longterm monitoring of the subsurface temperature would allow us to accurately delineate these cyclic signals and separate them from the signal associated with the outward flow of the Moon s endogenic heat. Further, temperature toward bottom of the 3-m hole should be fairly stable after the heat generated during the excavation dissipates into the surrounding soil. The geothermal gradient may be determined reliably from temperature measurements at the RTDs near the bottom. In order to minimize the heat conduction along the stem from affecting the geothermal gradient measurements, we plan to use low-conductive materials for the stem and develop a mechanism to achieve close coupling between the RTDs and the wall of the excavated hole.

Nagihara, Seiichi↗

Estimating Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on ISS

The threat from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration-broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA's Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper briefly describes the overall methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Evans, H.↗

Predicting the Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on the International Space Station

The threat from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration-broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA's Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper briefly describes the overall methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Hyde, James↗

Consequences of MMOD Penetrations on the International Space Station

Risk from micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) impacts on space vehicles is often quantified in terms of the probability of no penetration (PNP). However, for large spacecraft, especially those with multiple compartments, a penetration may have a number of possible outcomes. The extent of the damage (diameter of hole, crack length or penetration depth), the location of the damage relative to critical equipment or crew, crew response, and even the time of day of the penetration are among the many factors that can affect the outcome. For the International Space Station (ISS), a Monte-Carlo style software code called Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability (MSCSurv) is used to predict the probability of several outcomes of an MMOD penetration—broadly classified as loss of crew (LOC), crew evacuation (Evac), loss of escape vehicle (LEV), and nominal end of mission (NEOM). By generating large numbers of MMOD impacts (typically in the billions) and tracking the consequences, MSCSurv allows for the inclusion of a large number of parameters and models as well as enabling the consideration of uncertainties in the models and parameters. MSCSurv builds upon the results from NASA’s Bumper software (which provides the probability of penetration and critical input data to MSCSurv) to allow analysts to estimate the probability of LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM. This paper provides an overview of the methodology used by NASA to quantify LOC, Evac, LEV, and NEOM with particular emphasis on describing in broad terms how MSCSurv works and its capabilities and most significant models.

Evans, Hilary J.↗