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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

County Level Annual Population Projections for SSP3 and SSP5

This dataset consist of annual (2020-2100) county-level population projections for the United States (U.S.) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The original decadal state-level data is used as an input to the gridded population data model to downscale the state-level projections for each SSP to a 1 km grid. The 1 km data is then aggregated to the county-level using the 2020 TIGER/Line county shapefiles from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data files are shared as .csv files with the following structure: Rows = Data for individual counties which are identified using their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The FIPS code is stored in the first column. Columns = Each year from 2020-2100 is an individual column. For easier reference, the state name associated with each row is stored in the last column. Values in each cell are the downscaled estimated population for that county-year combination. Values are fractional due to the weighting scheme used in the downscaling. The paper and model source code cited in the "Related Works" section describes the initial source of the population projections.

FIPS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Verifying infectious disease scenario planning for geographically diverse populations

In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the literature saw a spike in publications for epidemic models, and a renewed interest in capturing contact networks and geographic movement of populations. There remains a general lack of consensus in the modeling community around best practices for spatiotemporal epi-modeling, specifically as it pertains to the infection rate formulation and the underlying contact or mixing model. We mathematically verify several common modeling assumptions in the literature, to prove when certain choices can provide consistent results across different geographic resolutions, population densities and patterns, and mixing assumptions. The most common infection rate formulation, a computationally low cost per capita infection rate assumption, fails the consistency tests for heterogeneous populations and gravity-weighting assumptions. Future modeling efforts in spatiotemporal disease modeling should be wary of this limitation, particularly when working with more heterogeneous or sparse populations. Our results provide guidance for testing that a model preserves desirable properties even when model inputs mask potential problems due to symmetry or homogeneity. We also provide a recipe for performing this type of verification, strengthening decision support tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Global 30 Arcsecond Annual Global Gridded Population Datasets from 2000 to 2022

Abstract Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) annually develops the LandScan Global (LSG) dataset, a 30 arcsecond global gridded population dataset representing global ambient human population distribution. This multivariable dasymetric model disaggregates census counts within administrative boundaries using ancillary data. Each country’s distribution reflects cultural and socioeconomic patterns; manual validations yield a unique global dataset for assessing populations at risk. For over two decades, LSG has been a standard for estimating populations at risk, aiding U.S. federal government, academia and humanitarian organizations. During disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti earthquake and geopolitical crises such as the Syrian civil war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, LSG supported scientific and operational communities in emergency response and recovery. In 2022, LSG datasets from 2000 onward were made publicly available through ORNL’s LandScan Portal. This data descriptor details our methodology and the application of geospatial science and machine learning to geographic and demographic data, highlighting uses in urban resiliency, emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chiral population analysis: a real space visualization of X-ray circular dichroism

The microscopic understanding of probing and controlling molecular chirality is of considerable interest. Numerous spectroscopic techniques are capable of monitoring molecular asymmetry and its consequences, ranging from the infrared to the X-ray regime. Resonant X-rays have long been used to investigate local atomic sites within molecules thanks to the localized nature of core electronic transitions. These techniques can be used to determine the extent to which chirality is a local versus a delocalized property. However, how to systematically partition dichroic contributions from the point of view of electronic structure simulations remains an open question. Here, we introduce the concept of chiral population analysis that connects chirality to the atomic orbital picture. In analogy with Mulliken population analysis, which assigns charges to atomic orbitals, chiral populations allow the dichroic response to be distributed among the participating atomic orbitals. This decomposition can be further visualized in real space by representing it in terms of isosurface plots, providing an intuitive way to connect the dichroic response to its origins. Thus chiral population analysis can be particularly useful to assess the extent to which a given electronic transition is sensitive to chirality as a local or global feature of the molecular geometry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the topology of neural manifolds across populations

Neural manifolds summarize the intrinsic structure of the information encoded by a population of neurons. Advances in experimental techniques have made simultaneous recordings from multiple brain regions increasingly commonplace, raising the possibility of studying how these manifolds relate across populations. However, when the manifolds are nonlinear and possibly code for multiple unknown variables, it is challenging to extract robust and falsifiable information about their relationships. We introduce a framework, called the method of analogous cycles, for matching topological features of neural manifolds using only observed dissimilarity matrices within and between neural populations. We demonstrate via analysis of simulations and in vivo experimental data that this method can be used to correctly identify multiple shared circular coordinate systems across both stimuli and inferred neural manifolds. Conversely, the method rejects matching features that are not intrinsic to one of the systems. Further, as this method is deterministic and does not rely on dimensionality reduction or optimization methods, it is amenable to direct mathematical investigation and interpretation in terms of the underlying neural activity. We thus propose the method of analogous cycles as a suitable foundation for a theory of cross-population analysis via neural manifolds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring demographic and selective histories from population genomic data using a 2-step approach in species with coding-sparse genomes: an application to human data

Abstract The demographic history of a population, and the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of newly arising mutations in functional genomic regions, are fundamental factors dictating both genetic variation and evolutionary trajectories. Although both demographic and DFE inference has been performed extensively in humans, these approaches have generally either been limited to simple demographic models involving a single population, or, where a complex population history has been inferred, without accounting for the potentially confounding effects of selection at linked sites. Taking advantage of the coding-sparse nature of the genome, we propose a 2-step approach in which coalescent simulations are first used to infer a complex multi-population demographic model, utilizing large non-functional regions that are likely free from the effects of background selection. We then use forward-in-time simulations to perform DFE inference in functional regions, conditional on the complex demography inferred and utilizing expected background selection effects in the estimation procedure. Throughout, recombination and mutation rate maps were used to account for the underlying empirical rate heterogeneity across the human genome. Importantly, within this framework it is possible to utilize and fit multiple aspects of the data, and this inference scheme represents a generalized approach for such large-scale inference in species with coding-sparse genomes.

Soni, Vivak (ORCID:0000000294969562)↗
DOE OSTI2026

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Diversity of an Atmospheric Aerosol Population in an Arctic Oil Field on a Single‐Particle Level

As the Arctic rapidly warms, sea ice extent is decreasing and oil and gas extraction activities are expanding. Local combustion emissions affect the Arctic atmospheric aerosol chemical mixing state (the distribution of chemical species across the aerosol population), which impacts climate-relevant properties. Bulk and single-particle measurements of submicron aerosols were conducted at Oliktok Point, Alaska within the North Slope of Alaska oil fields. In this work, we quantify aerosol diversity using online single-particle mass spectrometry data (32,880 individual particles), offline single-particle microscopy data (20,912 individual particles), and online bulk aerosol mass spectrometry and aethalometer data. This method was used to derive individual particle mass fractions for both refractory and non-refractory material within distinct particle types. Single-particle, average single-particle, and bulk population diversities (D i , D α , D γ , respectively) and mixing state indices (χ) were calculated for the data set. Calculated D i values were generally low (2.2 ± 0.6), as individual particle masses were dominated by a few chemical species of interest. Aged aerosol particles (those internally mixed with nitrate and/or sulfate) exhibited higher D i values (>3) compared to recently emitted (fresh) aerosol particles. During oil field plume periods, D α values approached three due to the abundance of diesel combustion particles, which were rich in sulfate, black carbon, and organic aerosol. Overall, the submicron aerosol population within the Arctic oil fields was found to be relatively externally mixed (χ < 50%), due to the constant local emissions within oil fields combining with background aerosol and locally emitted sea spray aerosol at the coastal site.

Wu, J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microstructure-dependent particulate populations in ODS steels revealed by single-particle ICP-TOF-MS

In this work, we evaluated the ability of single-particle inductively coupled plasma time-of-flight mass spectrometry (SP-ICP-TOF-MS) to characterize particulates generated from 300 series stainless steels and oxide dispersion–strengthened (ODS) steels. Particulates were produced using two different rotary tools (cutting disk and grinding bit) to assess the influence of particle generation on effluent particulates. Across all materials and preparation techniques, SP-ICP-TOF-MS detected a substantial population of particles containing the expected constituent elements, with average compositions closely matching the nominal alloy values. A secondary population of Y-bearing particles was evident in ODS steels; their formation is strongly favored in particulates generated using the grinding bit. Specifically, in PM2000, Y-bearing particles were predominantly colocated with Al, whereas in 14YWT, Y-bearing particles were less frequently Fe-free but showed stronger colocation with Ti. These trends are consistent with the known microstructural differences between Y–Al–O oxide particles in PM2000 and finer Y–Ti–O nanoclusters in 14YWT. Together, these results demonstrate that SP-ICP-TOF-MS can resolve distinct particulate populations in complex, multicomponent steels at the femtogram mass scale, enabling particle-resolved insight into microstructure-driven phase separation and preparation-dependent particle generation.

Brubaker, Zach E. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NSs) might provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection will become available: astrometric microlensing. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We used dedicated Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. In addition to populations of stars, white dwarfs, and black holes, we simulated four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: v = (150, 250, 350, 450) km/s. For each simulation, we applied projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We found that the parameter space log10 t E –log 10 θ E , which will be accessible to Roman observations, is efficient for the classification of stellar remnants. We found a feature in this space that is characteristic of NSs; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman -like datasets. We describe the dependence of the observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest that more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NSs are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate that Roman will observe approximately 11 000 microlensing events, including ~100 with NS lenses, whose photometric and astrometric signals are detectable; the event yield decreases by 38% when gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elephant range and population, strontium isotopes, and genetics combine to give local-scale specificity to ivory hotspot tracking

We use Sr isotopes to increase the precision of DNA-based origin estimates of wildlife products. Population information is used to develop Sr isotope Elephant Polygons that are overlaid onto the region of origin identified by DNA assignment to determine the sources of seized ivory samples. Our approach is cognizant of isotope mixing due to isotope turnover within animals and also of the large home range of elephants or other mobile species. Genetic information from 3 different law enforcement ivory seizures suggests a region of origin confined to Kenya and Tanzania in eastern Africa. We determine characteristic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios for each of 25 different Elephant Polygons within this region using analyses of more the 600 known-origin reference samples. Using both the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios of the seized ivory samples and elephant population estimates from individual Elephant Polygons we find that at least 75 % of the samples likely came from a single Elephant Polygon which includes the Tsavo National Parks in Kenya and the Mkomazi National Park in Tanzania. A few samples may have come from other regions, most likely from Tanzania. This study illustrates the value of combining genetics, isotope geochemistry, and population surveys in wildlife forensics studies.

Africa↗
DOE OSTI2026

In-beam 𝛾-ray spectroscopy of 29 S populated in direct knockout, dissipative reactions, and fragmentation

Excited states in the neutron-deficient nucleus 29 S were populated in one-neutron knockout and several-nucleon removal reactions and studied using in-beam 𝛾-ray spectroscopy. New excited states and 𝛾-ray transitions were established using the Segmented Germanium Array SeGA and the 𝛾-ray tracking array GRETINA. The new transitions observed in the highly dissipative tail of the parallel momentum distribution from one-nucleon knockout and in five- and nine-nucleon removal reactions were utilized to calculate mirror energy differences with 29 Al . Highly dissipative reactions further prove to be a valuable tool in populating excited states typically inaccessible in direct reactions. The relative populations of the states in 29 S from the several-nucleon removal reactions were found to be consistent, suggesting for the first time that five-nucleon removal behaves predominately like statistical fragmentation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Species-specific ribosomal RNA-FISH identifies interspecies cellular-material exchange, active-cell population dynamics and cellular localization of translation machinery in clostridial cultures and co-cultures

ABSTRACT The development of synthetic microbial consortia in recent years has revealed that complex interspecies interactions, notably the exchange of cytoplasmic material, exist even among organisms that originate from different ecological niches. Although morphogenetic characteristics, viable RNA and protein dyes, and fluorescent reporter proteins have played an essential role in exploring such interactions, we hypothesized that ribosomal RNA-fluorescence in situ hybridization (rRNA-FISH) could be adapted and applied to further investigate interactions in synthetic or semisynthetic consortia. Despite its maturity, several challenges exist in using rRNA-FISH as a tool to quantify individual species population dynamics and interspecies interactions using high-throughput instrumentation such as flow cytometry. In this work, we resolve such challenges and apply rRNA-FISH to double and triple co-cultures of Clostridium acetobutylicum, Clostridium ljungdahlii, and Clostridium kluyveri . In pursuing our goal to capture each organism’s population dynamics, we demonstrate dynamic rRNA, and thus ribosome, exchange between the three species leading to the formation of hybrid cells. We also characterize the localization patterns of the translation machinery in the three species, identifying distinct, dynamic localization patterns among them. Our data also support the use of rRNA-FISH to assess the culture’s health and expansion potential, and, here again, our data find surprising differences among the three species examined. Taken together, our study argues for rRNA-FISH as a valuable and accessible tool for quantitative exploration of interspecies interactions, especially in organisms which cannot be genetically engineered or in consortia where selective pressures to maintain recombinant species cannot be used. IMPORTANCE Though dyes and fluorescent reporter proteins have played an essential role in identifying microbial species in co-cultures, we hypothesized that ribosomal RNA-fluorescence in situ hybridization (rRNA-FISH) could be adapted and applied to quantitatively probe complex interactions between organisms in synthetic consortia. Despite its maturity, several challenges existed before rRNA-FISH could be used to study Clostridium co-cultures of interest. First, species-specific probes for Clostridium acetobutylicum and Clostridium ljungdahlii had not been developed. Second, “state-of-the-art” labeling protocols were tedious and often resulted in sample loss. Third, it was unclear if FISH was compatible with existing fluorescent reporter proteins. We resolved these key challenges and applied the technique to co-cultures of C. acetobutylicum , C. ljungdahlii , and Clostridium kluyveri . We demonstrate that rRNA-FISH is capable of identifying rRNA/ribosome exchange between the three organisms and characterized rRNA localization patterns in each. In combination with flow cytometry, rRNA-FISH can capture sub-population dynamics in co-cultures.

Hill, John D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parallel Variable Population Multi-Objective Optimizer (pvpmoo) v1.0

This is a parallel variable population multi-objective optimizer with an adaptive unified differential evolution algorithm or a genetic algorithm. It can also be used for single objective optimization. Some features of this code include: 1) The population size varies from generation to generation to save the total # of objective function evaluations. 2) The population is uniformly distributed to a number of parallel processors for simultaneous objective function evaluation. 3) The objective function evaluation can be attained from an external simulation program with control variables in its input file and objectives calculated from its output files. 4) The optimizer includes an adaptive unified differential evolution algorithm and a real value genetic algorithm. The parameters in the unified differential evolution algorithm can be chosen to attain any mutation schemes in the published literature.

Qiang, Ji↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sub-daily virus sampling at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series reveals diel and depth-structured population dynamics without community-level shifts

Ocean microbes contribute to biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem function, but they do so under top-down pressure imposed by viruses. While viruses are increasingly understood spatially and beginning to be incorporated into predictive modeling, high-frequency ocean virus dynamics remain understudied due to methodological challenges. Here we sampled stratified Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) waters for 112 hours at sub-daily 4- (surface) or 12- (deep chlorophyll maximum) hour intervals, purified viral particles from these samples, sequenced their metagenomes, and used the resulting data to characterize high-frequency virus community dynamics. Aggregated community diversity metrics changed with depth, but were not statistically significant temporally at a fixed location. However, finer-scale population-level analyses revealed both depth and temporal change, including physicochemical depth-driven differences and, in surface waters, thousands of viral populations that exhibited statistically significant diel rhythms. Statistical analyses revealed three main archetypes of temporal dynamics that themselves differed in abundance patterns, host predictions, viral taxonomy, and gene functions. Among these, highlights include viruses resembling an archetype with a night peaking pattern in activity that include an over-representation of viruses that putatively infect Prochlorococcus, a phototrophic cyanobacteria. Together, these efforts provide baseline community- and population-scale short-time-frame observations relevant to future climate state modeling.

Carrillo, Alfonso [The Ohio State University, Colu↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Scalable Contact Network Generation from Population Data

Modeling the contacts among a population is critical to understanding the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Contact networks, where nodes are individuals and edges are contacts among them, are used to represent these complex individual-level interactions. In this work, we are given the daily activity schedules of an urban population that represent the activity location and time of individuals in a population during a single twenty four hour period over multiple days. Using collocation to determine contact between individuals, our goal is to extract hourly contact networks from large-scale activity data. We improve upon the existing adjacency matrix-based method by implementing our custom sparse matrix multiplication algorithm. Starting with a Python implementation, we achieve a 1600x speed up in the computation with a fast custom designed sparse matrix multiplier algorithm implemented in the C++ language. This work is central to future parallel designs of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong Lensing Cosmology with Population-level Calibrated Neural Ratio Estimation

Strong gravitational lensing contains key information about cosmic acceleration. Modern and next-generation galaxy imaging surveys are expected to provide high-quality data on $\mathcal{O}(10^5)$ galaxy-galaxy lensing systems. The plethora and complexity of the data are likely to present computational challenges for parameter inference methods for fitting high-dimensional likelihoods, which are often analytically intractable. Neural Ratio Estimation (NRE) efficiently computes individual likelihood ratios that can be combined into population-level posteriors. We use simulations to study the capacity of NRE to jointly predict the dark energy equation-of-state parameter $w$ and the total matter density $Ω_{m}$ from lensing images and companion spectroscopic information. We also introduce a post hoc posterior coverage calibration procedure that mitigates the model overconfidence that is typically found in neural density estimation applications. Our experiments show that the errors on both parameters decrease with increasing inference population sizes. In particular, for 100 lenses in a standard $Λ$CDM Universe, our calibrated NRE model achieves median fractional uncertainty of $22.8\%$ in $w$ and $2.9\%$ in $Ω_{m}$. This proof of concept demonstrates a potentially scalable approach for efficient cosmological parameter inference with large populations of galaxy-scale lenses observed in future surveys.

Jarugula, Sreevani [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000253867↗