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DOE OSTI2023

Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (Final Report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE EERE BTO project Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau. The project implemented a community energy campaign to deploy heat pumps and efficiency for residents of Juneau, in Southeast Alaska. The project helped Juneau make progress towards its renewable energy goal of reaching 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045. The Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (ICE-Juneau) project began in 2020 and concluded three years later in 2023. During that time, a group of implementation partners and a research advisory team instituted a beneficial electrification campaign to promote energy savings and carbon reduction in residences of Juneau, Alaska. The campaign, Thermalize Juneau, focused on the installation of single head ductless mini-split heat pumps along with other efficiency upgrades. Thermalize Juneau was the first campaign of its kind in Alaska. After several months of planning, registration opened to the public in early 2021, and over the course of six months 164 participants enrolled. Campaign staff provided education to homeowners on heat pumps and efficiency, and each participant received a one-on-one heat pump assessment using a custom Microsoft Excel-based calculator that estimated energy savings for their residence based on building characteristics and past utility bills. Participants could also obtain a free energy audit from one of the two local energy auditors to further inform their decision. A heat pump installer, electrician, and builder were selected via a competitive RFP process. Participants who felt ready to install a heat pump or other efficiency upgrades received a site visit and custom quote from each of these contractors free of charge, and if they still felt energy upgrades were right for them, could move forward with an individual contract. Participants received a $400 heat pump installation rebate, offered by the installer if 40 heat pump installations occurred through the campaign. Overall, the campaign facilitated 75 heat pump installations (including participants that went with another contractor or heat pump model) and 30 efficiency upgrades (including participants that went with another builder or did DIY upgrades). The campaign created 3 new jobs as the heat pump installer hired an administrative assistant and two apprentices over the course of the campaign. It also helped Juneau work toward achieving its renewable energy goal of 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045 by upgrading houses from fuel oil to heat pumps powered by the hydropower electric grid. Researchers conducted four surveys to inform Thermalize Juneau and future energy campaigns. The first surveyed existing and prospective heat pump owners in Juneau to identify barriers the campaign could address and inform recruitment efforts. Entry and exit surveys provided information on participant demographics, goals, outcomes, and suggestions for improving future campaigns. And a final survey of community members who had not participated in Thermalize Juneau gave insight on ways future campaigns could include a greater diversity of participants so they could realize similar benefits. Researchers also used pre-campaign energy modeling to predict energy savings, which was then compared to the savings estimated through aggregation of heat pump assessments and energy audits, and later to actual energy savings of 10 participants who installed a heat pump and were able to provide complete energy use data sets. In addition to energy savings, and to assist the electric utility in future planning efforts, researchers analyzed the overall change in electric use across participants with energy data and heat pump installations. They also completed a life cycle cost analysis, showing positive net present values for those displacing a fuel oil appliance, and a more mixed case for those switching from electric baseboard. This project proved the feasibility of energy campaigns, with a goal of beneficial electrification, in cold, remote locations. The Thermalize Juneau team compiled a Guidebook to Thermalize Campaigns, available online. In addition to documenting what occurred in Alaska’s first thermalize campaign, it provides tips and resources for other communities wishing to implement a similar program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sustainable Energy Solutions for Thermal Load in Buildings—Role of Heat Pumps, Solar Thermal, and Hydrogen-Based Cogeneration Systems

Economic and population growth is leading to increased energy demand across all sectors—buildings, transportation, and industry. Adoption of new energy consumers such as electric vehicles could further increase this growth. Sensible utilization of clean renewable energy resources is necessary to sustain this growth. Thermal needs in a building pose a significant challenge to the energy infrastructure. Potential technological solutions to address growing energy demand while simultaneously lowering the carbon footprint and enhancing the grid flexibility are presented in this study. Performance assessment of heat pumps, solar thermal collectors, nonfossil fuel-based cogeneration systems, and their hybrid configurations is reported in this study. The impact of design configuration, coefficient of performance (COP), electric grid’s primary energy efficiency on the key attributes of total carbon footprint, life cycle costs, operational energy savings, and site-specific primary energy efficiency are analyzed and discussed in detail. In conclusion, heat pumps and hydrogen-fueled solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) are highly effective building energy resources compared to traditional approaches; however, the carbon intensity of electrical energy and hydrogen production are keys to the overall environmental benefit.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of helium on plasma-driven hydrogen permeation and implications for direct internal recycling in the fusion fuel cycle

Abstract Metal foil pumps (MFPs) are the leading technology for direct internal recycling (DIR) of hydrogen isotopes from the plasma exhaust in future fusion plants. MFPs rely on the concept of superpermeation, where superthermal H atoms directly absorb into the metal foil, rapidly diffuse, and desorb downstream. To date, studies of superpermeation have predominantly employed either pure hydrogen or in some cases trace levels of impurities. The plasma exhaust is expected to contain just ∼1% helium, but in DIR the source gas would be enriched in helium as hydrogen isotopes are extracted. In this work, we explore the impact of helium on hydrogen superpermeation at low temperature (75 °C–200 °C) using Pd-based foils. To first order, the flux scaled linearly with the hydrogen mole fraction. Stable permeation was observed until the helium fraction reached ∼80%, where the flux began to decline slowly with time. In addition, short term (1–5 min) exposure to pure helium plasma significantly attenuated subsequent hydrogen plasma permeation, and the degree was more dramatic at elevated temperature. This attenuation was correlated with He retention in the foils, which was detected by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry at low levels (<0.1 at. %) and limited to the near surface (<10 nm). Similar trends were observed among all alloys (Pd, PdAg, PdCu), and the foils were restored to full performance with an Ar + sputter clean. The potential for helium plasma exposure to impact MFP performance under these conditions has not been previously reported, and these findings have significant implications to the design and implementation of practical DIR systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design of Phase-Change Thermal Storage Device in a Heat Pump for Building Electric Peak Load Shaving: Preprint

Replacing carbon-intensive fossil fuel heating systems with electric heat pumps powered by renewables is a promising approach to decarbonize the building sector. However, one of the technical barriers of this approach is the large scale of heat demand, which will put excessive stress on the electricity grid. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) into the heating systems can help alleviate this problem, by shifting thermal load and thus shaving peaks in the building electric load. Therefore, it is critical to understand how to design a thermal storage device in a heat pump for peak load shaving. In this study, we developed a numerical model for a cascaded vapor compression heat pump system integrating a phase change thermal storage device. This novel system can control the net thermal charging and discharging rate of the TES independently from the building's thermal load, which allows for precise control of electric power use. In the current study, we controlled the system to shave building electric peak load during a cold winter morning, and to charge TES during the relatively warm afternoon while still providing space heating. We used the model to evaluate the system performance with and without peak shaving. We also investigated the effect of PCM transition Tt on the peak reduction and electric energy saving potentials. The results show that peak shaving scheme effectively reduces the peak electric power consumption during a predefined discharge time window. When comparing to the no shaving case, for PCM Tt = 10 degrees C, the peak electric load reduction is 23.5%. When comparing to an air-source heat pump with back up electric heater, as Tt increases from 0 to 20 degrees C, the peak reduction increases from 46.1% to 50.9%. Integrating PCM Tt = 10 degrees C with peak shaving leads to the 45.5% of electric energy saving, which is the highest among the three transition temperatures.

electric energy saving↗
DOE OSTI2021

Alternative All-Metal Scroll Pump Design

In tritium process systems, vacuum pumps are typically used to evacuate volumes and piping, as well as transfer gas to other parts of the process. This was done using the combination of an all-metal scroll pump with a metal bellows backing pump. The all-metal scroll pump, manufactured by Normetex, has been unavailable since 2012, and efforts continue to find a suitable replacement. The main obstacle is finding a pump that has no oils or polymer components, which degrade when exposed to tritium and introduce corrosive and/or hazardous impurities into the process. There have been development efforts to design an all-metal scroll pump design alternative to the Normetex style. The first generation was fabricated out of machined stainless steel, but the thermal management and increased weight were not ideal. To mitigate the weight, an aluminum version was designed. The tritium holdup on untreated aluminum surfaces can be greater than stainless steel, so the wetted aluminum surfaces were electroless plated in nickel and then electroplated in gold. The development effort outlined in this report details the design of an improved version of the stainless steel version.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Size Up or Size Down? National Analysis of Heat Pump Sizing and Impacts

Electrification of on-site fossil fuel combustion in buildings is recognized as a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. Air-source heat pumps are an efficient approach for space heating electrification. However, a major barrier to heat pump adoption is the high installation cost relative to furnaces and air conditioners. Because the installation cost of heat pumps - especially cold climate models - is dependent on their size, it is important to understand the distribution of heat pump sizes using different sizing methods and factors that impact heat pump sizing. In this study, we use sub-hourly physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative dwelling units to analyze the distribution of heat pump size in the U.S. for three different efficiency levels of heat pumps, with and without building insulation and air sealing upgrades. We will present results from the national analysis of different factors affecting heat pump sizing along with the impact of sizing decisions on upgrade costs and operating costs.

electrification↗
DOE OSTI2023

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Version 5.7 and 5.6 Release Notes

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 (SAS) is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. In this report, the major developments that were implemented in Versions 5.7 and 5.6 are summarized and an overview of all changes made between versions is presented. SAS Version 5.7 and 5.6 introduced a number of modeling improvements that allow users to capture important phenomena, such as pump heating and metallic fuel performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Godzilla mineral dust and La Soufrière volcanic ash fallout immediately stimulate marine microbial phosphate uptake

During the “Godzilla” dust storm of June 2020, unusually high fluxes of mineral dust traveled across the Atlantic from the Sahara Desert, reaching the Caribbean Basin, Gulf Coast, and southeastern United States. Additionally, an eruption of the La Soufrière volcano on St. Vincent in April 2021 generated substantial ashfall in the southeastern Caribbean. While many studies have analyzed mineral dust’s ability to relieve nutrient limitation of phosphorus (P) in the P-stressed North Atlantic, less is known about the impact of extreme events and other natural aerosols on fluxes of P into seawater and from seawater into marine microbial cells. We quantified P and iron (Fe) content in mineral dust from the Godzilla dust storm and volcanic ash from the La Soufrière eruption collected at Ragged Point, Barbados. We also performed seawater incubations to assess the marine microbial response to aerosol deposition. Using environmentally-relevant concentrations of atmospheric particles for within the ocean’s mixed layer allowed us to draw realistic conclusions about how these deposition events impacted P cycling in situ. Volcanic ash has lower P content than mineral dust, and P in volcanic ash is far less soluble (~1%) than assumed in current atmospheric deposition models. Adding mineral dust and the volcanic ash leachate in concentrations representing different deposition scenarios increased soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in coastal seawater by ~7-32 nM. Phosphate uptake rate was stimulated in coastal seawater after either mineral dust or volcanic ash deposition at aerosol concentrations relevant to the Godzilla dust event, with ash eliciting the fastest uptake rate. Furthermore, high concentrations of both the mineral dust and volcanic ash led to slightly elevated alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) compared to the relevant controls, indicating higher potential for use of dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) as a P source. Quantifying these aerosols’ impacts on P cycling is a significant step towards achieving a better understanding of their potential roles in relieving nutrient limitation and fueling the biological carbon pump.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exergy Analysis of a Convective Heat Pump Dryer Integrated with a Membrane Energy Recovery Ventilator

To increase energy efficiency, heat pump dryers and membrane dryers have been proposed to replace conventional fossil fuel dryers. Both conventional and heat pump dryers require substantial energy for condensing and reheating, while “active” membrane systems require vacuum pumps that are insufficiently developed. Lower temperature dehumidification systems make efficient use of membrane energy recovery ventilators (MERVs) that do not need vacuum pumps, but their high heat losses and lack of vapor selectivity have prevented their use in industrial drying. In this work, we propose an insulating membrane energy recovery ventilator for moisture removal from drying exhaust air, thereby reducing sensible heat loss from the dehumidification process and reheating energy. The second law analysis of the proposed system is carried out and compared with a baseline convective heat pump dryer. Irreversibilities in each component under different ambient temperatures (5–35 °C) and relative humidity (5–95%) are identified. At an ambient temperature of 35 °C, the proposed system substantially reduces sensible heat loss (47–60%) in the dehumidification process, resulting in a large reduction in condenser load (45–50%) compared to the baseline system. The evaporator in the proposed system accounts for up to 59% less irreversibility than the baseline system. A maximum of 24.5% reduction in overall exergy input is also observed. The highest exergy efficiency of 10.2% is obtained at an ambient condition of 35 °C and 5% relative humidity, which is more than twice the efficiency of the baseline system under the same operating condition.

Balaraman, Anand (ORCID:0000000218355788)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Study of 120-volt Heat Pump Water Heaters in the Big Easy

To meet long-term goals for reducing carbon emissions and lessen the impacts of climate change, the U.S. plans to decarbonize its building stock, which includes the replacement of fossil fuel-burning end uses with energy efficient electric alternatives. As part of this strategy, the replacement of fossil fuel water heaters with heat pump water heaters (HPWH) has the potential to avoid substantial carbon emissions. An estimated 10-15 million single-family homes with fossil fuel water heaters do not have the electrical panel capacity to install a 240-volt, 30-amp HPWH. For these homes, a technology recently introduced to the market, the 120-volt plug-in HPWH, can provide energy efficient electrification of water heating without an expensive panel and wiring retrofit. This paper presents the results of an ongoing 120-volt HPWH field study conducted in 17 homes in New Orleans, LA. Key installation scenarios are profiled for retrofitting from gas-fired water heaters to 120-volt HPWHs, accounting for space, air volume, air temperature, condensate drainage, and electrical. Each HPWH had its surrounding air temperature, relative humidity, inlet and outlet water temperature, flow, and energy consumption monitored. Using these data, hot water delivery and energy efficiency performance were analyzed based on home characteristics. Hot water run outs were investigated to understand how hot water usage, inlet water temperature, and surrounding air temperature impact the HPWH’s ability to meet load. From these results, best practices for 120-volt HPWH siting, sizing, and installation were developed. In addition, results are explored further to add insight for electrification policies and product development.

heat pump water heater, 120-volt, Residential buil↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Study of a Cryopump Design for Fusion Exhaust Gas Purification Using Direct Simulation Monte Carlo

Cryopump-based direct internal recycling (DIR) of fusion fuel is an attractive prospect because it provides pumping of helium ash from a reactor along with separation of helium and other impurities from the fuel. Previous studies have demonstrated a continuously regenerating cryopump, referred to as the Snail pump, that separates helium ash from fusion fuel for reactor-relevant flow rates. Here, in this study, a conceptual cryopump was designed as a proof-of-principle study to target other impurities, besides helium ash, from the fusion exhaust that would complement the Snail pump. The impurity-removal cryopump consists of four sets of chevron fins, two sets operating at 80 K and the other two at 30 K. A computational study using direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) was performed with a gas mixture of 96.5% D2, 2.0% He, and 0.5% each of CO2, N2, and CH4. In this configuration, 80 K chevron fin sets are capable of capturing CO2 and 30 K sets capable of capturing CO2, N2, and CH4. The computational study showed that the cryopump is capable of reducing the impurity content by more than two orders of magnitude from the flow.

Adhikari, Nirajan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a High-Pressure Fuel Injection System for Use with Propane-DME

Paper details the design approach and performance of a high-pressure common rail fuel injection system used with Propane-DME mixtures targeting high injection pressures on a light duty 2.2L inline-4 compression ignition engine. The study estimates the bulk modulus of elasticity based on the hardware geometry and operating pressures to assess the compressibility of Propane and DME across a range of pressures typical of the LD engine application. The compressibility factor ranges from 500 to 3000 bar, significantly lower than the theoretical values for the conditions tested. The high-pressure pump performance is optimized via the implementation of an inlet metering valve operated on a crank-angle open/close sequence to control pressure at the common rail. The application of a model-based controller and the use of high-speed sampling of rail pressure indicate that pressure at the rail can be attained with the pump metering valve, and without use of the pressure relieve valve present in the rail. Results show a significant reduction on pumping work parasitics and of fuel heating, on the order of 40°C, at typical working conditions with the proposed approach. Injector rates of injection with Propane-DME are very similar to those of Diesel. Paper compares bench data of rates of injection versus simulation predictions across operating pressures of 200 to 1000bar and from injection commands spanning 0.20 to 2.0ms. Furthermore, the accuracy of the model predictions are attributed in part by to the updated fuel compressibility modulus descriptions attained during the testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme Miller cycle with high intake boost for improved efficiency and emissions in heavy-duty diesel engines

This study experimentally investigates the impact of extreme Miller cycle strategies paired with high intake manifold pressures on the combustion process, emissions, and thermal efficiency of heavy-duty diesel engines. Well-controlled experiments isolating the effect of Miller cycle strategies on the combustion process were conducted at constant engine speed and load (1160 rpm, 1.76 MPa net IMEP) on a single cylinder research engine equipped with a fully-flexible hydraulic valve train system. Late intake valve closing (LIVC) timing strategies were compared to a conventional intake valve profile under either constant cylinder composition, constant engine-out NO x emission, or constant overall turbocharger efficiency (η TC ) to investigate the operating constraints that favor Miller cycle operation over the baseline strategy. Furthermore, utilizing high boost with conventional intake valve closing timing resulted in improved fuel consumption at the expense of sharp increases in peak cylinder pressures, engine-out NO x emissions, and reduced exhaust temperatures. Miller cycle without EGR at constant λ demonstrated LIVC strategies effectively reduce engine-out NO x emissions by up to 35%. However, Miller cycle associated with very aggressive LIVC timings led to fuel consumption penalties due to increased pumping work and exhaust enthalpy. LIVC strategies allowed for increased charge dilution at the baseline NO x constraint of 3.2 g/kWh, resulting in significant fuel consumption benefits over the baseline case without compromising exhaust temperatures or peak cylinder pressures. As Miller cycle implementation was shown to affect the boundary conditions dictating η TC , the LIVC and conventional IVC cases were studied at an equivalent η TC point representative of high boost operation. With high boost, LIVC yielded reduced NO x emissions, reduced peak cylinder pressures, and elevated exhaust temperatures compared to the conventional IVC case without compromising fuel consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Summary of 2020 edge-plasma modeling for FNSFand plans for 2021

This year, following the study of liquid-wall options, our edge-plasma modeling has returned to analyzing issues associated with a solid tungsten-wall, Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF)-size device, primarily using the 2D UEDGE plasma/neutral transport code. The focus is to predict plasma/neutral heat and particle fluxes to various wall components and determine the concentration of injected and wall-sputtered impurities that reach the core plasma region. Our models have been advanced in a number of areas compared to the initial modeling done in the 2017 timeframe: this year we include each individual charge-state of impurity ions instead of assuming a fixed concentration of impurities relative to the deuterium-tritium (DT) fuel plasma, including the interaction between inner and outer divertor legs. Here edge fueling of the impurity and pumping in the private-flux region is incorporated. Increasingly detailed atomic-physics rate files for impurity radiation have been compared, as well as the role of molecules. The impact of spatial variation of the turbulence-driven radial plasma transport is considered to contribute to the understanding of the heat-flux-limit effects of choosing a double-null or single-null divertor configuration. Detailed plasma/neutral wall fluxes, densities, and temperatures have been provided to the ERO group for their more detailed studies of wall sputtering and near-surface impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking the AirSquared All-Metal Scroll Pump Against the Normetex 15 - Preliminary report

Tritium operations require specialized equipment for material compatibility, safety, and waste considerations. Non-metallic pump materials (polymer, oil, or grease) on a tritium-wetted surface can absorb tritium and/or undergo isotope exchange between tritium and more common protium, creating tritiated compounds that can result in material property modification via beta-radiolysis, inventory loss, reduced performance and special waste considerations, all of which increase the operating cost for a facility. Vacuum pumps move gas via a pressure differential between volumes of an operation. Several types of all-metal vacuum pumps exist for this application including metal bellows, diaphragm and scroll pumps. A metal bellows pump incorporates only metal components at the wetted surfaces. The common metal bellows pump employed in tritium facilities, the MB601 (Senior Metal Bellows, Sharon, PA, USA) creates a gas-motive force with a vacuum pressure between 30-40 torr. These pumps can efficiently move gas from one process step to another, as long as sub-30 torr pressures are not required. However, for higher vacuum demand, an all-metal scroll pump can be used with the bellows pump serving as a “backing” pump. This configuration typically provides an achievable vacuum of less than 20 mTorr. All-metal scroll pumps are a technology uniquely applicable to tritium gas handling. The industry standard all-metal scroll pump for glovebox-scale tritium operations is the Normetex 15 m 3 /hr, typically referred to as the Normetex 15 (Normetex Pompes, Pont Audemer, France). However, the final Normetex pumps were manufactured in 2012, rendering them no longer available. Eumeca SaRL (formerly Normetex) has developed and is marketing a scroll pump based on the design of the Normetex 15. A US company, AirSquared (Broomfield, Colorado), has developed and is marketing a potential alternative to the Normetex 15. The Gas Transfer Systems group (Q-7) of the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) procured serial number 0001 of the AirSquared All Metal Vacuum Scroll pump model number V16H034A-C01 in 2019. The LANL Hydrogen Processing Laboratory (HPL) has been evaluating the performance of the pump compared to a Normetex pump as a potential replacement in tritium and fusion facilities requiring this type of pump.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Light Duty Engine Performance Characteristics with Dimethyl Ether and Propane

Here, this paper explores the performance characteristics of a compression ignition HYUNDAI 2.2L engine operating with Dimethyl Ether (DME). Test are carried out at three operating conditions that weigh heavily in the FTP75 certification cycle (1000rpm-12Nm, 1500rpm-50Nm, 2000rpm-100Nm). The engine features a high-pressure common rail fuel injection system designed to operate with liquified gases. The main component of the fuel system is a high-pressure pump that incorporates an electronic inlet metering valve commanded on a crank-angle base to control the rail pressure. The pump, which requires no pressure regulator, provides the flow needed to the injectors without flow returning to the inlet. This novel fueling system is leveraged in tests that are conducted to examine the impact of EGR, combustion phasing, injection pressure on efficiency and emissions. In addition, the impact of introducing 15% Propane by mass is examined. During the tests, the engine ECU is aided by an Engine Controller High Speed Oversight unit (ECHO) to provide combustion phasing control, improved cylinder-to-cylinder uniformity, and an effective optimization over the testing effort. The use of DME and Propane allowed for peak thermal efficiency of nearly 43%. These fuels enable significant carbon index (CI) reductions over the baseline Diesel fuel, with indications that 50% reduction in CO 2 over the Diesel engine are possible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States

Electrification of fossil-fuel combustion in buildings is a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. We use physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative households to analyze distributions of the costs and benefits of three air-to-air heat pump performance levels, with and without insulation upgrades, across the diversity of the US housing stock. We find positive greenhouse gas reductions in every US state for all performance levels across five 2022-2038 electric grid scenarios, with full adoption reducing national emissions by 5%-9%. We find that air-to-air heat pumps could be cost effective without subsidies in 59% of households (65 million). However, efficiency is key: whereas minimum-efficiency equipment could increase energy bills in 39% of households, this fraction is only 19% when also upgrading insulation or 5% when using higher-efficiency equipment, though both strategies have higher upfront costs. Such affordability challenges could be addressed through supportive incentives, policy, and innovation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗