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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative 2026 Update

We provide an update on the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative at the 2026 PV Reliability Workshop. Our latest runs incorporate additional data sources and an integrated analysis pipeline run on our Kestrel HPC cluster. Initial degradation findings suggest that single-axis tracked PV systems exhibit higher performance loss rates than fixed-tilt systems, an increase of 0.5 %/yr, almost double. We discuss multiple methods for identifying stuck tracker rows, which are suspected to be a contributor to the enhanced degradation. Through satellite image detection and data-driven approaches we address the topic of identifying when stuck trackers are occuring and to what extent the problem exists. Preliminary results suggest that the increased performance loss detected for the tracked systems would be consistent with stuck tracker rows affecting on the order of 5% - 10% of the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗
DOE OSTI2021

Failure Analysis of a New Polyamide-Based Fluoropolymer-Free Backsheet After Combined-Accelerated Stress Testing

The viability of novel coextruded, fluoropolymer-free backsheets for photovoltaic (PV) modules has been questioned as a result of a large number of early-life backsheet failures in PV installations containing one of the earliest co-extruded polyamide (PA)-based backsheet to reach the market, “AAA.” New PV reliability testing protocols have been recently developed and applied to backsheets to reproduce failures observed in the field and evaluate the durability of novel backsheet materials and designs prior to commercialization. A new co-extruded PA-based backsheet was tested using combined-accelerated stress testing (C-AST) and demonstrated a greater lifetime than AAA, and some other fluoropolymer-based backsheets such as polyvinylidene fluoride. The improved PA-based backsheet also eventually failed by through-thickness cracking. Using surface and bulk material characterization techniques, we performed a comprehensive study of material properties before and after the stress testing. Aging of the backsheet resulted in an increase of surface roughness by erosion of the outer PA layer. However the failure is more likely related to an increase in crystallinity of the polyolefin core layer reducing the backsheet tearing energy. The analysis can ultimately inform on the specific weaknesses of the materials so that the manufacturer can improve the backsheet design to extend its lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term impact of light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation on photovoltaic arrays

Low levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) has been identified as critical for widespread adoption of photovoltaics (PV) without subsidies. Maintaining decades-long high-energy production is often an under-recognized opportunity in meeting cost goals because component lifetimes are not fully quantified at the time of manufacture. Whereas certain standardized tests minimize risk of early failure, there is little guidance to quantitatively predict degradation (or lack thereof) over decades, based on accelerated tests. In this article, we move toward bridging the understanding between indoor accelerated tests and outdoor performance data, with the goal of predicting energy yield with enough accuracy to inform financial decisions. Light- and elevated temperature-induced degradation (LETID) in p-type Si modules is analyzed in terms of impact on long-term module performance and thus LCOE. A method to predict the progression of LETID, using fixed kinetic constants and a numerical solution to the basic reaction rate equations, is detailed. Predictions are compared against both published data and that new to this study. These data include both indoor accelerated tests and fielded modules. We use the results in financial models to derive LCOE of modules in different climates with varying amounts of LETID, including uncertainty. Cost models based on the predictions indicate that LETID has a significant and climate-dependent impact on LCOE. Finally, we show that - even given the uncertainties identified in the study - these financial calculations can provide useful guidance to quantify risk based on accelerated test results. The analysis serves as an example of developing a predictive approach to PV reliability using physics of failure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

PVDeg: Enhancing Usability and AI-Driven Multi-Mechanism Degradation Modeling

PVDeg version 0.7.0, released in December 2025, introduced major enhancements to improve usability and performance. This update reorganized tutorials and tool notebooks to create a more intuitive experience, enabling users to easily follow and adapt workflows for their specific analyses. In addition to structural improvements, both the notebooks and core logic underwent significant optimization for efficiency, robustness, and style. These refinements were supported by new testing frameworks built on nbval and pytest, adherence to PEP8 standards, and extensive code refactoring, which collectively simplify onboarding for new developers. Looking ahead, version 0.8.0 will deliver advanced AI-driven capabilities. The primary focus is to further develop and automate the degradation workflow, designed to analyze PV module degradation across diverse locations and system configurations. By integrating large language models (LLMs) to scan literature and compile a comprehensive database of materials and degradation rates, this feature will enable modeling of multiple materials and mechanisms within a single, streamlined workflow. Users will be able to evaluate degradation impacts on different system architectures under varying environmental conditions, facilitating informed decisions on bill-of-materials optimization for specific deployment scenarios. These advancements position PVDeg as a powerful, user-friendly tool for accelerating PV reliability research and system design.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis for a Photovoltaic Inverter

While PV panel reliability continues to increase, PV inverters become the limiting factor for PV system reliability. Consequently, it is critical to have a generic tool from a third party for PV inverter reliability assessment to help 1) utilities/PV farm operators schedule maintenance in advance, and 2) inverter developers improve the next-generation design. However, these two things cannot be accomplished without first understanding the reasons behind inverter failure. Following this idea, as the first step, it is essential to identify and investigate the most failure-prone components within a PV inverter system. After all, any system is only as reliable as the components that are contained within it. This motivates the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) work presented for this workshop. The FMEA is conducted as follows: first, the overview of the methodology on the development of the FMEA is presented; then, based on a top-down approach starting from the PV inverter system, critical inverter components with high failure rates are identified and summarized; afterward, a thorough FMEA study at a component-level is performed and its results, including failure modes, failure mechanisms, and critical stressors, are tabulated; finally, according to three rankings (chance of occurrence, severity of occurrence, and ease of detection prior to failure) for each failure mechanism provided by the FMEA, risk priority numbers are calculated and the failure mechanisms along with the critical stressors are ranked in terms of their potentially detrimental effect on the PV inverter.

Brown, Buck↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Faster-Than-Real-Time Framework for Reliability-Oriented Simulation of PV Inverters

Physics-of-Failure (PoF) based reliability assessment for photovoltaic (PV) inverters requires long-duration electrical and electrothermal stress histories, yet generating such stress histories with high-fidelity switching models over year long mission profiles is computationally prohibitive. Conventional methods either sacrifice modeling fidelity for speed or require runtimes that are impractical for design iteration and uncertainty studies. To address this bottleneck, this paper presents a High-Performance Computing (HPC) based simulation frame work for faster-than-real-time reliability-oriented simulation. The proposed framework integrates the Average-to-Switching (A2S) method with parallel computing techniques to accelerate switching-level waveform reconstruction. We further introduce optimization strategies, including cluster merging and sensitivity based mission profile screening, to reduce the computational burden. Evaluated using real-world mission profile inputs and a MATLAB/Simulink switching-model reference, the framework reduces the simulation time for a one-year mission from an intractable multi-year duration to approximately 7.3 minutes while maintaining low waveform error. This acceleration provides a practical reliability-oriented simulation engine that can be coupled with component-specific aging models for subsequent PV inverter PoF assessment.

High-performance Computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open data sets for assessing photovoltaic system reliability

Photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a cornerstone of renewable energy strategies, particularly due to the significant reduction in solar power costs over the past decade. However, the long-term reliability of PV installations presents a persistent challenge, requiring the development of advanced monitoring and predictive maintenance strategies. A wide range of data types is used to evaluate the health of PV systems, including environmental conditions, electrical performance, and inspection imagery. These data enable methodologies such as machine learning (ML) models for lifetime prediction and computer vision techniques for defect detection. However, the acquisition of high-quality and comprehensive data is difficult, particularly in terms of long-term consistency and data variety. Publicly available data sets serve as valuable resources for addressing these challenges, but they often suffer from fragmentation and are difficult to access. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing open-source data sets related to PV degradation, analyzing their features, functionalities, and potential applications. We categorize these data sets based on the specific aspects of PV system information they cover, such as environmental conditions, operational monitoring, image inspection and module materials, and propose relevant tools and ML models for processing them. In addition, we propose practices for future data collection and usage, while also discussing potential directions in data-driven research. Our aim is to enhance data utilization and publication among researchers and industry professionals, promoting a deeper understanding of the role of data in enhancing the performance and durability of PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of system parameters and geospatial variables on the reliability of residential systems with PV and energy storage

A reliable power supply is the foundation of modern society, enabling technologies used to function within a society. Residential systems are places where the end users directly consume power, enabling technologies to sustain life. With the emergence of behind-the-meter resources, the end-users have some control over power supply reliability. The intermittency and variability of these resources impact residential system reliability. In this work, we study the reliability performance of a grid-supplemented residential system with behind-the-meter Distributed Energy Resources(DER) subject to various system parameters and geospatial variables. We propose a multistate reliability model for the behind-the-meter microinverter-based Photo Voltaic (PV) system and integrated inverter-based energy storage (ES) system. A sequential Monte Carlo method is then presented to evaluate the reliability indices for the residential system with behind-the-meter DERs as the main supply and the grid as the backup. The sequential Monte Carlo method is used to analyze the reliability performance of the residential model at the top 100 populous counties of the United States, where actual load and solar irradiance data at the counties is used. In the analysis, the sensitivity of indices to system parameters such as DER size and the sensitivity of the indices to climate zone and gross horizontal irradiation (GHI), which affects the load conditions and the PV output of the residential system, is performed. The analysis results show that the system parameters and the geospatial variables significantly impact the residential system’s reliability. The insights from this analysis will be of immense value to the distribution system planners to provide zone-specific guidelines for DER system sizing and toward the evolution of utility business models. Finally, the methodology developed can be used to extend the analysis to other locations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2023

PV Module BOM and Test Data

This dataset contains compiled results from annual PV Module Reliability Scorecards published by PV Evolution Labs – also known as PVEL. These scorecards show summary results of PV module testing performed by PVEL and name specific models of PV modules as "Top Performers" in various tests. Full details on testing, Top Performer status and other criteria for inclusion in Scorecards are documented in reports and online documentation available from https://www.modulescorecard.pvel.com. This dataset is not affiliated with PVEL and is intended only to simplify sorting and filtering Scorecard data and finding specific PV module models and Top Performer results. Note that data included in Scorecards has evolved over time, so not all data is available for all years, and testing protocols and Scorecard criteria have been changed over time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reliability Assessment of Cooling Fans for PV Inverters: Testing, Modeling, and Case Studies

The reliability of photovoltaic (PV) inverters is critical for long-term solar system performance, with cooling fan failures frequently leading to costly downtime. While much research exists on general cooling fan reliability, little attention has been given to fans operating within PV inverters and their unique environmental challenges. Here, this article proposes a comprehensive methodology to address this gap. First, a failure mode and effects analysis is performed on fans to identify the key failure mechanisms in PV applications, their corresponding stressors, and the models necessary for lifetime prediction. Second, an accelerated life test is designed and conducted to collect valuable experimental data for PV inverter fans in a reasonable amount of time. Third, a mathematical conversion of dynamic mission profiles into effective constant stress levels is derived. Fourth, case studies are given, showcasing lifetime estimates that account for geographic variations in mission profile data. The results demonstrate that this integrated approach leads to an accurate reliability assessment for PV inverter cooling fans.

accelerated life testing (ALT)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliable Power Rating of Perovskite PV Modules

As the perovskite technology is ramping up into commercialization, reliable and accurate power rating of large-size perovskite modules becomes a prominent aspect for its future deployment in the PV market. It is known that the performance calibration of perovskite PV devices is very challenging due to its complex dynamic response during a conventional current-voltage (IV) measurement. PV researchers have previously proposed several steady-state performance calibration methods to reliably extract PV efficiencies, but mostly focus on small area research-type cells. In this paper, we emphasize the importance of reliable performance calibration on large-size perovskite modules. Extending the NREL Cell and Module Performance (CMP) group's steady-state performance calibration protocol (i.e., Asymptotic P MAX Scan) for perovskite cells to modules, we justify the necessity of reporting steady-state efficiencies for perovskite cells and discuss the challenges of applying this protocol to modules. We also present our protocol for Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), which is a technique often used for performance calibration of perovskite cells and modules, and show a comparison between MPPT and Asymptotic P MAX . Using MPPT we demonstrate the interplay between metastability and degradation in perovskite modules, and emphasize the necessity to develop preconditioning protocols for stabilizing these devices. Our aim is to promote development of consensus protocols for performance calibration of perovskite modules, and to advance their credible power ratings, which will be beneficial to the growth of perovskite technology in the PV market.

perovskite↗
DOE OSTI2024

2024 Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability Workshop Summary Report & Proceedings

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) organized the 2024 Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability Workshop on April 11-12, 2024, hosted at NREL's South Table Mountain campus in Golden, Colorado. The workshop was organized around seven key topics, including the present state of inverter reliability; solutions for reliability challenges; life cycle cost and ownership issues; testing, standards, performance, and reliability metrics; data reporting, analytics, and sharing; and the future of PV inverter reliability research. Participants included inverter manufacturers, national laboratory researchers, academics, independent testing laboratories, and more. Over the course of the two-day workshop, attendees arrived at several key priorities and conclusions. This report summarizes these conclusions and then collects presentations from the workshop into a record of the workshop's proceedings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliable Power Rating of Perovskite PV Modules: Preprint

As the perovskite technology is ramping up into commercialization, reliable and accurate power rating of large-size perovskite modules becomes a prominent aspect for its future deployment in the PV market. It is known that the performance calibration of perovskite PV devices is very challenging due to its complex dynamic response during a conventional current-voltage (IV) measurement. PV researchers have previously proposed several steady-state performance calibration methods to reliably extract PV efficiencies, but mostly focus on small area research-type cells. In this paper, we emphasize the importance of reliable performance calibration on large-size perovskite modules. Extending the NREL Cell and Module Performance (CMP) group’s steady-state performance calibration protocol (i.e., Asymptotic PMAX Scan) for perovskite cells to modules, we justify the necessity of reporting steady-state efficiencies for perovskite cells and discuss the challenges of applying this protocol to modules. We also present our protocol for Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), which is a technique often used for performance calibration of perovskite cells and modules, and show a comparison between MPPT and Asymptotic PMAX. Using MPPT we demonstrate the interplay between metastability and degradation in perovskite modules, and emphasize the necessity to develop preconditioning protocols for stabilizing these devices. Our aim is to promote development of consensus protocols for performance calibration of perovskite modules, and to advance their credible power ratings, which will be beneficial to the growth of perovskite technology in the PV market.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2023

DuraMAT FY 2022 Annual Report: Towards Predicting Lifetime

The Durable Module Materials Consortium (DuraMAT) launched in November 2016 with five years of funding from the U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO). The program renewed in 2022 for an additional 6 years. DuraMAT is a multi-lab consortium led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, with Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) as core research labs. DuraMAT's overarching goal is to accelerate a sustainable, just, and equitable transition to zero-carbon electricity generation by 2035. We work in partnership with our 22-member industry advisory board and the technical management team at SETO. DuraMAT transitioned from our first five-year program into a new six-year program in 2022. It was a very busy year; DuraMAT wrapped up projects from DuraMAT 1 and kicked off new laboratory-led projects for DuraMAT 2. This transition brings new goals and a renewed focus on accelerating the energy transition by improving photovoltaic (PV) module reliability.

accelerated stress testing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transferring Photovoltaic Lessons Learned to Concentrating Solar Power

This presentations outlines the following: 1) Points worth noting in the history of the PV industry, 2) PV benefits from standardization, 3) PV sharing reliability challenges since the 1975, 4) PV projects from an independent engineering (IE) perspective, 5) Site selection (what NOT to do), 6) PV Operations & Maintenance over time, 7) Soiling research (remove the silos), 8) Noting a few relevant PV IEC standards, and 9) PVfleets data sharing.

bio-soiling↗