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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

North Pacific Decadal Variability: Insights from a Biennial ENSO Environment

This study examines the mechanisms of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the NASA GEOS-5 general circulation model (GCM). Similar to several other state-of-the-art GCMs, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated by the GEOS-5 has a strong biennial periodicity. Since this is a model bias that precludes a strong role of ENSO, it provides a unique environment to assess the other leading mechanisms of North Pacific decadal variability. Despite the biennial ENSO periodicity, the model simulates a realistic PDO pattern in the North Pacific that is resolved as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of winter mean sea surface temperature (SST). The spectrum of the PDO indicates no preferred periodicity. The SST anomalies associated with the PDO, particularly its basin wide structure, are primarily forced by the Aleutian low through Ekman transport. The slow geostrophic transport in association with the meridional adjustment of the subtropical gyre is limited to a narrow region in the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension, north of 40degN. The atmosphere's response to the PDO, while weak, projects onto the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), a meridional dipole in sea level pressure. Both the lack of preferred periodicity and the weak atmospheric response indicate an air-sea coupled oscillation is an unlikely mechanism in this model. In agreement with recent studies, the NPO is correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, which is another leading EOF of North Pacific SST variability. The results emphasize the role of atmospheric variability in the North Pacific SST modes, thereby bringing into question the potential for their predictability.

GCM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗
DOE OSTI2023

Future Projections of the El Niño—Southern Oscillation and Tropical Pacific Mean State in CMIP6

Abstract The El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of tropical Pacific atmosphere‐ocean variability that drives teleconnections with weather and climate globally. However, prior studies using state‐of‐the‐art climate models lack consensus regarding future ENSO projections and are often impacted by tropical Pacific sea‐surface temperature (SST) biases. We used 173 simulations from 29 climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) to analyze model biases and future ENSO projections. We analyzed two ENSO indices, namely the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which measures zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection and accounts for changes in background SST, and the Niño 3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in the central‐eastern equatorial Pacific. We found that the warm eastern tropical‐subtropical Pacific SST bias typical of previous generations of climate models persists into many of the CMIP6 models. Future projections of ENSO shift toward more El Niño‐like conditions based on ELI in 48% of simulations and 55% of models, in association with a future weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific SST gradient. On the other hand, none of the models project a significant shift toward La Niña‐like conditions. The standard deviation of the Niño 3.4 index indicates a lack of consensus on whether an increase or decrease in ENSO variability is expected in the future. Finally, we found a possible relationship between historical SST and low‐level cloud cover biases in the ENSO region and future changes in ELI; however, this result may be impacted by limitations in data availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change

Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Historical Subsurface Cooling in the Tropical Pacific and Its Dynamics

Abstract Understanding how the tropical Pacific responds to rising greenhouse gases in recent decades is of paramount importance given its central role in global climate systems. Extensive research has explored the long-term trends of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the overlying atmosphere, yet the historical change in the upper ocean has received far less attention. Here, we present compelling evidence of a prominent subsurface cooling pattern along the thermocline in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific since 1958. This subsurface cooling has been argued to be contributing to the observed cooling or lack of warming of the equatorial cold tongue SST. We further demonstrate that different mechanisms are responsible for different parts of the subsurface cooling. In the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and the southeastern off-equatorial Pacific, where zonal wind stress strengthens, a pronounced subsurface cooling trend emerges just above the thermocline that is closely tied to increased Ekman pumping. In the eastern equatorial Pacific where zonal wind stress weakens, the westward surface current and eastward Equatorial Undercurrent weaken as well, resulting in reduced vertical current shear and increased ocean stability, which suppresses vertical mixing and leads to local cooling. We conclude that the historical subsurface cooling is primarily linked to dynamical adjustments of ocean currents to tropical surface wind stress changes.

Jiang, Feng↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ocean transport and variability studies of the South Pacific, Southern, and Indian Oceans

The objectives of this study are to analyze ocean dynamics in the western South Pacific and the adjacent Southern Ocean and the eastern Indian Ocean. Specifically, our objectives for these three regions are, for the South Pacific Ocean: (1) To estimate the volume transport of the east Australian Current (EAC) along the Australian coast and in the Tasman Front, and to estimate the time variability (on seasonal and interannual time scales) of this transport. (2) To contribute to estimating the meridional heat and freshwater fluxes (and their variability) at about 30 deg S. Good estimates of the transport in the western boundary current are essential for accurate estimates of these fluxes. (3) To determine how the EAC transport (and its extension, the Tasman Front and the East Auckland Current) closes the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific and to better determine the structure at the confluence of this current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. (4) To examine the structure and time variability of the circulation in the western South Pacific and the adjacent Southern Ocean, particularly at the Tasman Front. For the Indian Ocean: (5) To study the seasonal interannual variations in the strength of the Leeuwin Current. (6) To monitor the Pacific-Indian Ocean throughflow and the South Equatorial and the South Java Currents between northwest Australia and Indonesia. (7) To study the processes that form the water of the permanent oceanic thermocline and, in particular, the way in which new thermocline water enters the permanent thermocline in late winter and early spring as the mixed layer restratifies. For the Southern Ocean: (8) To study the mesoscale and meridional structure of the Southern Ocean between 150 deg E and 170 deg E; in particular, to describe the Antarctic frontal system south of Tasmania and determine its interannual variability; to estimate the exchanges of heat, salt, and other properties between the Indian and Pacific Oceans; and to investigate the annual ventilation of the Antarctic Intermediate Water and Subantarctic Mode Water Masses.

Church, John A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Schools of the Pacific rainfall climate experiment

The SPaRCE program is a cooperative rainfall climate field project involving high school and college level students and teachers from various Pacific island and atoll nations. The goals of the SPaRCE program are: (1) to foster interest and increase understanding among Pacific-area students and teachers of climate and climate change; (2) to educate the students and teachers as to the importance of rainfall in the Pacific area to climate studies; (3) to provide the students and teachers an opportunity of making a major contribution to the global climate research effort by collecting and analyzing Pacific rainfall data; and (4) to incorporate collected rainfall observations into a comprehensive Pacific daily rainfall data base to be used for climate research purposes. Schools participating in SPaRCE have received standard raingauges with which to measure rainfall at their sites. Students learned to site and use their raingauges by viewing a video produced at the University of Oklahoma. Four more videos will be produced which will include information on Earth's atmosphere, global climate and climate change, regional climate and implications of climate change, and how to analyze and use the rainfall data they are collecting. The videos are accompanied by workbooks which summarize the main points of each video, and contain concrete learning activities to help the student better understand climate and climate change. Following each video, interactive sessions are held with the students using the PEACESAT (Pan-Pacific Education And Communication Experiments by Satellite) satellite radio communication system.

Postawko, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Coolness in the tropical Pacific during an El Nino episode

The response of radiation budgets to changes in water vapor and clouds in an El Nino episode is investigated using the analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) and satellite-derived clouds and the earth radiation budgets for the tropical Pacific (30 deg N-30 deg S, 100 deg E-100 deg W). Analyses are performed for April 1985 and April 1987. The former is a non-El Nino year and the latter is an El Nino year. Compared to April 1985, when the SST over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific is approximately 2 C lower, the high-level cloudiness in April 1987 increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Corresponding to the increase in cloudiness, the outgoing longwave radiation and the net downward solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere decrease. The patterns of these changes are reversed in the western tropical Pacific and the Northern Hemispheric (NH) subsidence region centered at approximately 20 deg N, indicating an eastward shift of the convection center from the maritime continents to the central equatorial Pacific and a strengthened NH Hadley circulation. The earth-atmosphere system in the region receives less radiative energy by 4 W/sq m in the warmer month of April 1987 than in the month of April 1985, which is primarily caused by a reduced atmospheric clear sky greenhouse effect in the NH tropical Pacific in April 1987. Clouds have strong effects on both the IR and solar radiation, but the net effect on the radiation budget at the top of the atmopshere changes only slightly between April 1985 and April 1987. The results are consistent with Lindzen's hypothesis that reduced upper-tropospheric water vapor in the vicinity of the enhanced convection region produces cooling that counteracts warming in the Tropics.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗
NASA NTRS1999

Measurements of Acidic Gases and Aerosol Species Aboard the NASA DC-8 Aircraft During the Pacific Exploratory Mission in the Tropics (PEM-Tropics A)

We received funding to provide measurements of nitric acid (HNO3), formic acid (HCOOH), acetic acid (CH3COOH), and the chemical composition of aerosols aboard the NASA Ames DC-8 research aircraft during the PEM-Tropics A mission. These measurements were successfully completed and the final data resides in the electronic archive (ftp-gte.larc.nasa.gov) at NASA Langley Research Center. For the PEM-Tropics A mission the University of New Hampshire group was first author of four different manuscripts. Three of these have now appeared in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, included in the two section sections on PEM-Tropics A. The fourth manuscript has just recently been submitted to this same journal as a stand alone paper. All four of these papers are included in this report. The first paper (Influence of biomass combustion emissions on the distribution of acidic trace gases over the Southern Pacific basin during austral springtime) describes the large-scale distributions of HNO3, HCOOH, and CH3COOH. Arguments were presented to show, particularly in the middle tropospheric region, that biomass burning emissions from South America and Africa were a major source of acidic gases over the South Pacific basin. The second paper (Aerosol chemical composition and distribution during the Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM) Tropics) covers the aerosol aspects of our measurement package. Compared to acidic gases, O3, and selected hydrocarbons, the aerosol chemistry showed little influence from biomass burning emissions. The data collected in the marine boundary layer showed a possible marine source of NH3 to the troposphere in equatorial areas. This source had been speculated on previously, but our data was the first collected from an airborne platform to show its large-scale features. The third paper (Constraints on the age and dilution of Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics biomass burning plumes from the natural radionuclide tracer Pb-210) utilized the unexpectedly high concentrations of Pb-210 in the combustion plumes to estimate their ages and mixing along the transport route to the South Pacific basin. The final paper in the group (Tropospheric reactive-odd nitrogen over the South Pacific in austral springtime). This paper provides a summary of reactive nitrogen during PEM-Tropics A, with HNO3 and PAM showing the most impact from combustion emission.

Talbot, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the North Pacific Climatological Rainfall as Observed from Satellites

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations for an eleven year period. These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the North Pacific Ocean total rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most important. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from passive microwave satellite observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are converted to monthly rainfall amounts and then compared to those for non-tropical cyclone systems. The main results of this study indicate that: 1) tropical cyclones contribute 7% of the rainfall to the entire domain of the North Pacific during the tropical cyclone season and 12%, 3%, and 4% when the study area is limited to, respectively, the western, central, and eastern third of the ocean; 2) the maxima in tropical cyclone rainfall are poleward (5 deg to 10 deg latitude depending on longitude) of the maxima in non-tropical cyclone rainfall; 3) tropical cyclones contribute a maximum of 30% northeast of the Philippine Islands and 40% of the lower Baja California coast; 4) in the western North Pacific, the tropical cyclone rainfall lags the total rainfall by approximately two months and shows seasonal latitudinal variation following the ITCZ; and 5) in general, tropical cyclone rainfall is enhanced during the El Nino years by warm SSTs in the eastern North Pacific and by the monsoon trough in the western and central North Pacific.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

Rodgers, Edward↗
NASA NTRS2000

Ozone in the Pacific Troposphere from Ozonesonde Observations

Ozone vertical profile measurements obtained from ozonesondes flown at Fiji, Samoa, Tahiti and the Galapagos are used to characterize ozone in the troposphere over the tropical Pacific. There is a significant seasonal variation at each of these sites. At sites in both the eastern and western Pacific, ozone is highest at almost all levels in the troposphere during the September-November season and lowest during, March-May. There is a relative maximum at all of the sites in the mid-troposphere during all seasons of the year (the largest amounts are usually found near the tropopause). This maximum is particularly pronounced during, the September-November season. On average, throughout the troposphere at all seasons, the Galapagos has larger ozone amounts than the western Pacific sites. A trajectory climatology is used to identify the major flow regimes that are associated with the characteristic ozone behavior at various altitudes and seasons. The enhanced ozone seen in the mid-troposphere during September-November is associated with flow from the continents. In the western Pacific this flow is usually from southern Africa (although 10-day trajectories do not always reach the continent), but also may come from Australia and Indonesia. In the Galapagos the ozone peak in the mid-troposphere is seen in flow from the South American continent and particularly from northern Brazil. The time of year and flow characteristics associated with the ozone mixing ratio peaks seen in both the western and eastern Pacific suggest that these enhanced ozone values result from biomass burning. In the upper troposphere low ozone amounts are seen with flow that originates in the convective western Pacific.

Oltmans, S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Mapping Distant Continental Influences in the Remote Pacific Atmosphere; Simulations of CO Relevant to the Photochemistry of Oxidants

An animated sequence of maps of simulated carbon monoxide concentrations graphically portrays the extent of residual continental influence upon the tropical Pacific Ocean as studied by NASA aircraft during the PEM-Tropics B intensive sampling campaign. We used the MM5 at a 90 km resolution in a globally wrapped grid to simulate the meteorology of transport, and our GRACES model to follow the basic chemistry. The CO we simulate derives from different sources, and so we distinguish anthropogenic, natural terpenoid oxidation, biomass burning, and pervasive CH4-oxidation influences. "Influence" is always judged with an implicit timescale, and these maps describe influence on the 15-45 day timescale appropriate for CO oxidation. In consequence, the maps are useful in assessing the origins of slowly reacting compounds like acetone, methanol, and the lightest hydrocarbons. At 8 km altitude, The Eastern South Pacific to ca. 130 W (eastern Polynesia) was frequently affected by continental influences but NASA's DC-8's flight path did not happen to take it into these regions very often. Near the surface, continentally influenced air crossed into t he Western South Pacific, in the region northwest of the Southern Pacific Convergence Zone but south of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This air originated from the NE Pacific, and partly from North America. Comparisons are made to CO and other compounds measured aboard the DC-8 and the P-3 aircraft. We will also use tracers to describe the influence of marine convection in the upper troposphere. As time allows, we will discuss the "age" of ozone within the very cleanest region sampled in portions of the near-equatorial Western South Pacific, using a simple chemical mechanism for ozone levels. These simulations describe the chemistry of an atmosphere with very low ozone.

Chatfield Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

California drought;Atmospheric ridging;Ocean-atmos↗
NASA NTRS2022

Impact of Biomass Burning and Stratospheric Intrusions in the Remote South Pacific Ocean Troposphere

The ozone mixing ratio spatiotemporal variability in the pristine South Pacific Ocean is studied, for the first time, using 21-year-long ozone (O3) records from the entire southern tropical and subtropical Pacific between 1994 and 2014. The analysis considered regional O3 vertical observations from ozonesondes, surface carbon monoxide (CO) observations from flasks, and three-dimensional chemistry-transport model simulations of the global troposphere. Two 21-year-long numerical simulations, with and without biomass burning emissions, were performed to disentangle the importance of biomass burning relative to stratospheric intrusions for ambient ozone levels in the region. Tagged tracers of O3 from the stratosphere and CO from various biomass burning regions have been used to track the impact of these different regions on the southern tropical Pacific O3 and CO levels. Patterns have been analyzed based on atmospheric dynamics variability. Considering the interannual variability in the observations, the model can capture the observed ozone gradients in the troposphere with a positive bias of 7.5 % in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) as well as near the surface. Remarkably, even the most pristine region of the global ocean is affected by distant biomass burning emissions by convective outflow through the mid and high troposphere and subsequent subsidence over the pristine oceanic region. Therefore, the biomass burning contribution to tropospheric CO levels maximizes in the UTLS. The Southeast Asian open fires have been identified as the major contributing source to CO from biomass burning in the tropical South Pacific, contributing on average for the study period about 8.5 and 13 ppbv of CO at Rapa Nui and Samoa, respectively, at an altitude of around 12 km during the burning season in the spring of the Southern Hemisphere. South America is the second-most important biomass burning source region that influences the study area. Its impact maximizes in the lower troposphere (6.5 ppbv for Rapa Nui and 3.8 ppbv for Samoa). All biomass burning sources contribute about 15–23 ppbv of CO at Rapa Nui and Samoa and account for about 25 % of the total CO in the entire troposphere of the tropical and subtropical South Pacific. This impact is also seen on tropospheric O3, to which biomass burning O3 precursor emissions contribute only a few ppbv during the burning period, while the stratosphere–troposphere exchange is the most important source of O3 for the mid troposphere of the South Pacific Ocean, contributing about 15–20 ppbv in the subtropics.

Tropospheric ozone↗
NASA NTRS2016

Western Pacific Hydroclimate Linked to Global Climate Variability Over the Past Two Millennia

Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between B1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between B1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.

Pacific Ocean↗
DOE OSTI2020

The influence of wintertime SST variability in the Western North Pacific on ENSO diversity

Abstract Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) have been linked to the development of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events a full year in advance. However, the contribution of the WNP precursor to the temporal evolution and spatial complexity of ENSO remains unclear. Using the preindustrial experiment of the Community Earth System Model as the control climate, a partially coupled experiment is conducted in which WNP SSTa are restored to the model climatology. By comparing the perturbed experiment to the control, we are able to clearly characterize ENSO’s response to WNP SST variability. We find that the WNP is predominantly linked to eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events. Without SST variability in the WNP, central Pacific (CP) ENSO events are more likely to develop. This variation in ENSO flavor is controlled by how the WNP projects onto wind stress anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific, which in turn impacts the discharge and recharge of ocean heat during the ENSO cycle. Specifically, the removal of SSTa in the WNP weakens the buildup of ocean heat in the western equatorial Pacific, which then hinders the development of EP-type events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗