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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Super-Resolution Photothermal Patterning in Conductive Polymers Enabled by Thermally Activated Solubility

Doping induced solubility control (DISC) patterning is a recently developed technique which uses the change in polymer solubility upon doping, along with an optical dedoping process, to achieve high resolution optical patterning. DISC patterning is remarkable because the process resolution exceeds the linear Abbe’s diffraction limit, however, no mechanism has been proposed to explain such high resolution. Here, we use diffraction to spatially modulate the light intensity and determine the dissolution rate, revealing a superlinear dependence on light intensity, which yields features that are sharper than the profile of the writing photomask. This rate law is independent of wavelength, indicating that patterning resolution is not dominated by an optical dedoping reaction, as was previously proposed. Instead we show here that the optical patterning mechanism is primarily controlled by the thermal profile generated by the laser. To quantify this effect, the thermal profile and dissolution rate are modeled using a finite-element model and compared against patterned line cross sections as a function of wavelength, laser intensity, and dwell time. Our model reveals that although the laser-generated thermal profile is broadened considerably beyond the lasers resolution, the highly temperature dependent dissolution rate results in selective dissolution near the peak of the thermal profile. Therefore, the key factor in achieving super-resolution patterning is a strongly temperature dependent dissolution rate|a common feature of many polymers. In addition to suggesting several routes to improved resolution, our model also demonstrates that doping is not required for optical patterning of conjugated polymers, as was previously believed. Instead, we demonstrate that superlinear resolution optical patterning is attainable in any conjugated polymer simply by tuning the solvent quality during patterning, thus extending the applicability of our method to a wide class of materials. Here, we demonstrate the generality of photothermal patterning by writing sub-400 nm features into undoped Pff-BT4T-2OD.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

QPatLib v1.0 — Measurement-based quantum simulation Pauli string unitary pattern collections

This Zenodo record accompanies the paper “Scalable Measurement-Based Quantum Simulation Patterns for Benchmarking” arXiv.2605.12502 and provides QPatLib v1.0 measurement-pattern datasets in human-readable JSONL together with a ZIP archive of OpenQASM 3.0 circuits used for validation and reproducibility. The patterns and circuits implement Pauli string unitaries for benchmark cases. Cases include all possible string combinations for less than 6 qubits and strings used in Hamiltonians for certain diatomic molecules for 6 or more qubits. Format: Each pattern_*.jsonl file is containins measurement patterns for all subsets for a given model/instance and subset strategy: it begins with a preamble containing model metadata, subset definitions, provenance, and (when feasible) full-pattern test results, followed by one pattern entry per subset. Each subset entry includes a required pattern_ascii field storing the measurement pattern in the measurement-calculus/Graphix standard with signal shifting, written left-to-right in the canonical order nodes → edges → measurements (with signal dependencies) → byproduct corrections (X/Z). The circuits are included as circuit_files.zip. Patterns in this record were validated against the corresponding circuits and checked for causal flow. Codes for generating these patterns can be found at QPatLib repository on Github

Graphix↗

Predicting multi-nodal in-nozzle particle interactions in high-viscosity fluid mediums for acoustophoretic direct-ink writing of line-patterned composites

Patterned functional materials offer improved properties (electrical, thermal, etc.) over their bulk counterparts in many applications, including energy storage, flexible electronics, and sensors. However, manufacturing approaches for patterning materials over large areas with features on the order of hundreds of microns or less are limited. Acoustophoresis, which uses acoustic forces to control particle arrangement in a fluid medium, is a pathway to address this challenge. This process is dependent on particle and fluid properties and enables patterning of a broad range of materials. Herein, a model with experimental validation is presented to demonstrate that acoustophoresis can be combined with direct-ink writing (DIW) to fabricate line patterns over large cm-scale areas. An in-nozzle particle interaction model was developed to investigate the impact of processing conditions on multi-nodal acoustophoretic DIW. The model predicts patterned line widths within a factor of two relative to experimental results for a high viscosity case study. Here, the model was used to investigate the impact of frequency, particle loading, particle radius, and acoustic pressure on line width and patterning time, providing critical feedback regarding the processing conditions suitable for a target application. Model results illustrate that frequency has the greatest impact on line patterns: increasing from 1 to 3 MHz resulted in a greater than 65% reduction in line width and a greater than 85% reduction in patterning time. Additionally, experiments were conducted with an alumina-epoxy ink and a ~21 cm 2 area pattern was rastered in ~5.5 minutes, demonstrating a path towards large-area line-patterned composite fabrication.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A simple, validated approach for design of two-dimensional periodic particle patterns via acoustophoresis

Two-dimensional patterning of microparticles enables a wide range of functional materials, including patterned energy storage electrodes, flexible electronics, and sensor arrays. Particle patterning via acoustics offers an attractive path to generate a wide variety of 2D periodic patterns that introduce tailorable hierarchical porosity, useful for controlling surface area, transport distances, and other properties. This method is most effective with micron scale particles and patterns of tens to hundreds of microns. To enable systematic exploration of the broad design space for such patterns, this work develops a model of 2D and 3D assembly of particles at high loadings and validates the obtained patterns against both experiments and more computationally intensive modeling techniques. Using this simple model, connections are mapped between input parameters (like actuation conditions, particle volume fraction, material properties) and output geometrical features (like void size and shape, pattern connectivity, and surface area) so that they can be tailored to given applications. The utility of this simple model is illustrated by predicting and then experimentally demonstrating new hierarchical patterns resulting from multiple waves of different frequencies interacting. These multiscale patterns offer the potential to lift the limits on surface area, diffusion distances, and other features.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A conserved gene regulatory network controls root epidermal cell patterning in superrosid species

Summary In superrosid species, root epidermal cells differentiate into root hair cells and nonhair cells. In some superrosids, the root hair cells and nonhair cells are distributed randomly (Type I pattern), and in others, they are arranged in a position‐dependent manner (Type III pattern). The model plant Arabidopsis ( Arabidopsis thaliana ) adopts the Type III pattern, and the gene regulatory network (GRN) that controls this pattern has been defined. However, it is unclear whether the Type III pattern in other species is controlled by a similar GRN as in Arabidopsis, and it is not known how the different patterns evolved. In this study, we analyzed superrosid species Rhodiola rosea , Boehmeria nivea , and Cucumis sativus for their root epidermal cell patterns. Combining phylogenetics, transcriptomics, and cross‐species complementation, we analyzed homologs of the Arabidopsis patterning genes from these species. We identified R. rosea and B. nivea as Type III species and C. sativus as Type I species. We discovered substantial similarities in structure, expression, and function of Arabidopsis patterning gene homologs in R. rosea and B. nivea , and major changes in C. sativus . We propose that in superrosids, diverse Type III species inherited the patterning GRN from a common ancestor, whereas Type I species arose by mutations in multiple lineages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Microbial macroecology: In search of mechanisms governing microbial biogeographic patterns

Abstract Introduction Rapidly advancing technologies and accumulating information about microbial communities across the globe allow the quantification of microbial properties and functions at a macro‐scale. These emerging microbial biogeographic patterns call for a practical macroecological approach to investigate their underlying mechanisms. Aims The primary aims of this paper are to review the advancements of microbial macroecology in seeking mechanisms governing microbial biogeographic patterns, and to further lay out a roadmap for microbial macroecology in 10 years. Methods We reviewed the progress of microbial macroecology and demonstrated the application of the microbial macroecological approach to microbial biogeographic patterns with three case studies. Results Microbial macroecology provides a platform for understanding microbial abundance, community structure, and functioning across space, time, and taxonomic hierarchy. It emphasizes the integral effects of environmental filtering, microbial responses, diversification, dispersal, and local extinction that drive the microbial biogeographic patterns. The microbial macroecological approach emphasizes the last two stages of the four‐stage scientific method applied to microbial ecology: (a) describing microbial traits across scales to reveal patterns, (b) mathematically representing these patterns, (c) developing and testing conceptual models to build a mechanistic understanding of these patterns from a macroecological perspective, (d) plugging the new knowledge into the theoretical advancements. Three case studies were used to demonstrate the microbial macroecological approach for understanding the global patterns of microbial biomass carbon, microbial composition (fungi : bacteria ratio), and microbial carbon use efficiency. Conclusions Microbial macroecology offers a platform for understanding the mechanisms that drive biogeographic patterns of microbial abundance, diversity and functions. It is likely that these patterns and mechanisms will be increasingly incorporated into predictive models that link climate, carbon dynamics, and biogeochemical processes. A roadmap is outlined for the growing microbial macroecology field; we expect significant progress will be made in five research directions over the next 10 years.

Xu, Xiaofeng↗

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output

Emulation through pattern scaling is a well-established method of rapidly producing climate fields (like temperature or precipitation) from existing Earth System Model (ESM) output that, while inaccurate, is often useful for a variety of downstream purposes. Conducting pattern scaling has historically been a laborious process, in large part due to the increasing volume of ESM output data that has often required downloading and storing locally to train on. Here we describe the Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS) dataset, a repository of trained annual and monthly patterns from CMIP6 outputs. This manuscript describes and validates these updated patterns so that users can save effort calculating and reporting error statistics in manuscripts focused on the use of patterns. The trained patterns are available as NetCDF files on Zenodo for ease of use in the impact community, and are reproducible with the code provided via GitHub in both Jupyter notebook and Python script formats. Because all training data for the PEEPS data set is cloud-based, users do not need to download and house the ESM output data to reproduce the patterns in the zenodo archive, should that be more efficient. Validating the PEEPS data set on the CMIP6 archive for annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, and near-surface relative humidity, pattern scaling performs well over a variety of future scenarios except for regions in which there are strong, potentially nonlinear climate feedbacks. Although pattern scaling is normally conducted on annual mean ESM output data, it works equally well on monthly mean ESM output data. We identify several downstream applications of the PEEPS data set, including impacts assessment and evaluating certain types of Earth system uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scene Context Dependency of Pattern Constancy of Time Series Imagery

A fundamental element of future generic pattern recognition technology is the ability to extract similar patterns for the same scene despite wide ranging extraneous variables, including lighting, turbidity, sensor exposure variations, and signal noise. In the process of demonstrating pattern constancy of this kind for retinex/visual servo (RVS) image enhancement processing, we found that the pattern constancy performance depended somewhat on scene content. Most notably, the scene topography and, in particular, the scale and extent of the topography in an image, affects the pattern constancy the most. This paper will explore these effects in more depth and present experimental data from several time series tests. These results further quantify the impact of topography on pattern constancy. Despite this residual inconstancy, the results of overall pattern constancy testing support the idea that RVS image processing can be a universal front-end for generic visual pattern recognition. While the effects on pattern constancy were significant, the RVS processing still does achieve a high degree of pattern constancy over a wide spectrum of scene content diversity, and wide ranging extraneousness variations in lighting, turbidity, and sensor exposure.

Woodell, Glenn A.↗

3D pattern formation of a protein–membrane suspension

Many essential cellular processes, including cell division and the establishment of cell polarity during embryogenesis, are regulated by pattern-forming proteins. These proteins often need to bind to a substrate, such as the cell membrane, onto which they interact and form two-dimensional (2D) patterns. It is unclear how the membrane’s continuity and dimensionality impact pattern formation. Here, we address this gap using the MinDE system, a prototypical example of pattern-forming membrane proteins. We show that when the lipid substrate is fragmented into submicrometer-sized diffusive liposomes, adenosine triphosphate-driven protein–protein interactions generate three-dimensional (3D) spatially extended patterns, despite the complete loss of membrane continuity. Remarkably, these 3D patterns emerge at scales four orders of magnitude larger than the individual liposomes. By systematically varying protein concentration, liposome size, and density, we observed and characterized a variety of 3D dynamical patterns not seen on continuous 2D membranes, including traveling waves, dynamical spirals, and a coexistence phase. Simulations and linear stability analysis of a coarse-grained model revealed that the physical properties of the dispersed membrane effectively rescale both the protein–membrane binding rates and diffusion, two key parameters governing pattern formation and wavelength selection. These findings highlight the robustness of Min’s pattern-forming ability, suggesting that protein–membrane suspensions could serve as an adaptable template for studying out-of-equilibrium self-organization in 3D, beyond in vivo contexts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electrostatically driven pattern formation in mixed charged–neutral multicomponent elastic membranes

Multicomponent crystalline and amorphous elastic shells exhibit heterogeneous surface patterns that provide distinctive functionalities in cellular environments. Such patterning typically arises from the competition between short-range attractive and long-range repulsive interactions in membranes. Here, we demonstrate that the intrinsic competition between electrostatic repulsion and elastic deformation is sufficient to drive spontaneous surface patterning in elastic shells, requiring no additional attractive interactions. Using numerical simulations, we demonstrate pattern formation in mechanically homogeneous membranes with heterogeneous surface charge composition across different topologies, including spheres, discs, and flat periodic membranes. We also examine patterns in crystalline and amorphous shells of coassembled charged and neutral components with different bending rigidities. At low charge fraction, discrete charged surface domains form. At intermediate charge fraction, the competition between electrostatics and elasticity leads to elongated domains (rods) of the charged component, which results in lamellar patterns at nearly equal fraction of the charged and neutral components. At high charge fraction, nanodomains of the neutral component form. Amorphous shells exhibit similar progressions but with disordered structures rather than ordered lamellar patterns. These pattern morphologies are observed in both the closed shells and flat membranes. As salt concentration increases, all patterns coarsen due to the screening of electrostatic interactions.

charge heterogeneity↗

Self-organized patterns at the plasma–liquid anode interface in a helium glow discharge: temporal development and mechanisms

Self-organization at the plasma–liquid anode interface is a commonly observed phenomenon for atmospheric pressure glow plasmas, resulting in patterns with distinctive shapes such as circular ring, star-shaped, and gear-like structures, depending primarily on the discharge current and solution conductivity. Recent studies have shown that the electrode gap distance, solute used for liquid anode solution, and gas composition can also significantly impact pattern formation. Nonetheless, an overarching model or explanation of the key underlying mechanisms consistent with all experimentally observed trends is not yet reported. We propose a key underlying mechanism enabling pattern formation motivated by a detailed parametric study of pattern formation complemented by the temporal development of patterns and consistent with all observed trends. Pattern formation was observed to be on a time scale of 100 μs, similar to the time scales of gas heating and evaporation. It was found that a minimum water evaporation rate of (3.5 ± 0.5) × 10 –6 kg s –1 and reduced electric field in the positive column of 16.6 ± 0.4 Td is required for pattern formation in the investigated cases irrespective of solution conductivity and gas composition for NaCl solutions. Nonetheless, the presence of cations for which the corresponding metal atom has a low ionization energy was identified as a necessary condition for pattern formation. Furthermore, the reported results suggest that the presence of a small amount of metal atoms in the gas phase with low ionization energy enhances the overall ionization rate in the near anode region which triggers pattern formation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Pattern Dictionary Method for Anomaly Detection

In this paper, we propose a compression-based anomaly detection method for time series and sequence data using a pattern dictionary. The proposed method is capable of learning complex patterns in a training data sequence, using these learned patterns to detect potentially anomalous patterns in a test data sequence. The proposed pattern dictionary method uses a measure of complexity of the test sequence as an anomaly score that can be used to perform stand-alone anomaly detection. We also show that when combined with a universal source coder, the proposed pattern dictionary yields a powerful atypicality detector that is equally applicable to anomaly detection. The pattern dictionary-based atypicality detector uses an anomaly score defined as the difference between the complexity of the test sequence data encoded by the trained pattern dictionary (typical) encoder and the universal (atypical) encoder, respectively. We consider two complexity measures: the number of parsed phrases in the sequence, and the length of the encoded sequence (codelength). Specializing to a particular type of universal encoder, the Tree-Structured Lempel–Ziv (LZ78), we obtain a novel non-asymptotic upper bound, in terms of the Lambert W function, on the number of distinct phrases resulting from the LZ78 parser. This non-asymptotic bound determines the range of anomaly score. As a concrete application, we illustrate the pattern dictionary framework for constructing a baseline of health against which anomalous deviations can be detected.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Algebraic Theory of Patterns as Generalized Symmetries

We generalize the exact predictive regularity of symmetry groups to give an algebraic theory of patterns, building from a core principle of future equivalence. For topological patterns in fully-discrete one-dimensional systems, future equivalence uniquely specifies a minimal semiautomaton. We demonstrate how the latter and its semigroup algebra generalizes translation symmetry to partial and hidden symmetries. This generalization is not as straightforward as previously considered. Here, though, we clarify the underlying challenges. A stochastic form of future equivalence, known as predictive equivalence, captures distinct statistical patterns supported on topological patterns. Finally, we show how local versions of future equivalence can be used to capture patterns in spacetime. As common when moving to higher dimensions, there is not a unique local approach, and we detail two local representations that capture different aspects of spacetime patterns. A previously developed local spacetime variant of future equivalence captures patterns as generalized symmetries in higher dimensions, but we show that this representation is not a faithful generator of its spacetime patterns. This motivates us to introduce a local representation that is a faithful generator, but we demonstrate that it no longer captures generalized spacetime symmetries. Taken altogether, building on future equivalence, the theory defines and quantifies patterns present in a wide range of classical field theories.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Layer by layer thin film fabrication with in-process laser patterning

A modification of the traditional layer by layer process where the substrate is irradiated with laser light during the polycation and/or polyanion dipping cycles is described. By adjusting the laser irradiation time during dipping, irradiation power, number of bilayers, and the location and speed of laser irradiation, a variety of structures with controlled thicknesses can be fabricated. Laser patterned multilayer PAH/PTEBS polymer thin films were fabricated and characterized with absorbance mapping to demonstrate several patterning approaches. Results for 1) two laser patterned tracks, 2) single laser patterned track with varied average laser power across the sample from a continuously variable neutral density filter, and 3) laser patterning using a beam sent through multiple circular apertures are described. Based on the variable neutral density filter laser pattern, for 20 bilayer PAH/PTEBS films, an absorbance difference between off and on pattern of 0.1 requires an average laser power of less than 15 mW at 405 nm. The patterns produced are on the scale of several millimeters, though they could be made much smaller by focusing the laser used for patterning.

Nanoengineering↗

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Capability of CAM5.1 in simulating maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa during boreal spring

This study classifies maximum air temperature patterns over West Africa into six groups and evaluates the capability of a global climate model (Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1; CAM) to simulate them. We analyzed 45-year (1961–2005) multi-ensemble (50 members) simulations from CAM and compared the results with those of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the twentieth Century Reanalysis data sets. Using Self Organizing Map algorithm to classify the spatial patterns of maximum air temperature during boreal spring, the study reveals the temperature patterns that CAM can simulate well and those the model struggles to reproduce. The results show that the best agreements between the composites of observation and CAM occur in the first temperature pattern group (which features positive temperatures anomalies over the Sahel) and Node 2 (which features near-normal temperature) pattern of the third group. CAM succeeded in reproducing some of the associated regional atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamic features in winds (horizontal and vertical), temperature fields, the cloud fractions, and the mean sea-level pressure. Although CAM struggles to capture the relationship between air temperature patterns and tele-connection indices during the boreal spring season over West Africa, it agrees with observations that temperature patterns over the sub-region cannot be associated with a single climate index. An ensemble member (SIM48) captures the inter-annual variation of the observed temperaure patterns with high sycronization (η > 44%), much better than that of ensembles mean (η < 30%). SIM48 also captures adequately four of the spatial patterns in comparison to three captured by the ensembles mean. This indicates that, for better seasonal forecasts and more reliable future climate projections, the practice whereby an ensemble mean is based on uniformly averaging the members rather than the performance of individual ensemble members needs to be reviewed. Finally, the results of the study may be used to improve the perfomance of CAM over West Africa, thereby strengthening the on-going efforts to include CAM as part of multi-model forecasting system over West Africa.

Lawal, Kamoru A. (ORCID:0000000281988844)↗