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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

X-Band Radar and Surface-Based Observations of Cold-Season Precipitation in Western Colorado’s Complex Terrain

Abstract Hydrologic processes associated with intermountain cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River basin have important impacts on avalanche forecasting and water resource management. However, traditional weather radar networks struggle with observations in this complex terrain. Data collected during the Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and the Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH) and its sister campaign, Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) in the East River watershed of western Colorado, are used to examine a multistorm period from 23 December 2021 to 1 January 2022 that contributed 35% of the total winter precipitation in this watershed. Dual-polarization X-band radar and disdrometer measurements show ∼30-mm differences in precipitation amount at two sites in proximity over four distinct storm events within the period. Wind patterns, synoptic forcings, microphysical characteristics of precipitation, and surface meteorology are analyzed to explain the observed spatial variability of cold-season precipitation in complex mountainous terrain. Analysis shows that differences over time within this event are mainly accounted for by synoptic forcings, such as frontal passages; differences between sites are accounted for by the impact of variations in local wind patterns on precipitation microphysics. Patterns of surface precipitation intensity are compared and found to be correlated with X-band radar signatures; a relationship between a strong dendritic growth stage and intense low-density surface precipitation is reinforced by this study. This relationship demonstrates the importance of particle growth mechanisms on surface snowfall patterns in high-altitude complex terrain, underscoring the importance of realistic microphysical parameterizations. Significance Statement The amount and density of snowpack from western Colorado winter storms have significant impacts on water resources in the Upper Colorado River basin. Snowpack characteristics are affected by small-scale differences in how snow forms in the atmosphere. These differences are hard to study in the complex terrain of the Rockies, but data from the SPLASH and SAIL field campaigns allows us to investigate how snow crystal formation and mountain-driven wind patterns affect snow near the surface. Our study finds that snow crystal growth varies over small space and time scales and is likely controlled by the terrain beneath a given location and resultant local wind patterns. These results imply that predicting snowpack in the Rockies requires properly representing local wind patterns and crystal growth processes in models.

Heflin, Stella↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystalline 1D Coordination Polymer Inhibitor Layer Leads to Vertical Sidewalls in Selectively Deposited ZnO on Nanoscale Patterns

Area-selective atomic layer deposition (AS-ALD) is a promising technique for the fabrication of next-generation nanoelectronics. There are two main challenges in AS-ALD: (1) achieving high selectivity of deposition on the growth regions, and (2) preventing mushrooming of the growth material onto the nongrowth regions and achieving well-defined interfaces. In this work, we use benzenethiol (BT) as an inhibitor in the selective deposition of ZnO on SiO 2 in the presence of copper with and without a native oxide (Cu/CuO x ). We observe that BT forms a monolayer on the Cu surface and a Cu-thiolate multilayer structure on CuO x . Using grazing incidence X-ray diffraction combined with simulations, we find that the multilayer structure is crystalline and composed of 1D coordination polymers of Cu-thiolate. Here, using ellipsometry and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, we show that the BT consumes the entirety of the CuO x during multilayer formation, allowing the multilayer thickness to be tuned by the thickness of the original oxide. Both the monolayer BT and the multilayer BT prove to be effective inhibitors of ZnO ALD, blocking nearly 500 ALD cycles, which is more than twice that achieved with other thiol inhibitors. Finally, we demonstrate that the multilayer structure can prevent mushrooming of the ALD material onto the nongrowth surface of nanoscale patterns, creating vertical sidewalls with well-defined material interfaces and providing excellent pattern transfer, even for a relatively thick deposited film. As such, these results demonstrate that BT is not only an effective inhibitor but also that its ability to form tunable multilayers makes it well-suited for highly precise nanopatterning applications.

Layers↗
DOE OSTI2024

Additive friction stir deposition induced stress ripples in aluminum alloy

In additive manufacturing, modification of the viscosity of softened or molten metal plays a significant role in the development of mechanical properties distribution. Similar to soft polymers, molten or softened metal usually exhibits vastly different viscoelastic properties. During scratching tests, viscoelastic polymers undergo spatiotemporal stress development and relaxation, causing stress ripples to form on their surfaces. Here, it is observed that friction stir-based solid-state manufacturing can yield similar stress ripples on softened aluminum alloys due to the linear motion of the deposition tool. Softened aluminum alloys exhibit viscoelastic and viscoplastic responses similar to polymeric material during the solid-state deposition process. In the final product, residual stress ripples appear on the surface of the metal alloy due to periodic residual stress relaxation, leading to oscillatory behavior from the bulk mechanical properties of the material. The orientation of the in-built stress pattern formed in the bulk of the additively manufactured metal alloy underneath the visually evident onion ring-like surface pattern formation is diametrically in the opposite direction. The experimentally observed results are consistent with analytical calculation and numerical simulations in terms of behaviors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dissimilar Material Joining via Interlocking Metasurfaces

Background The integration of dissimilar materials poses a significant challenge in engineering, necessitating innovative solutions for robust and reliable joining. Interlocking metasurfaces (ILMs) are a new joining technology comprising arrays of autogenous features patterned across two surfaces that interlock to form robust structural joints. Objective Here, this study elucidates the factors influencing the tensile performance of ILM joints formed between dissimilar materials. Methods We employed parametric optimization to identify optimal unit cell geometries for maximal yield strength based on the hypothesis that the elastic tensile properties of the materials are the primary determinants of tensile performance. Experimental validation was performed by mechanically testing the theorized optimal ILM geometry and a range of ILM geometries to capture the overall behavior trends of joints between two additively manufactured polymers, VeroPureWhite (VW) and RGDA8430-DM (8430). Results Experimental validation of optimized designs revealed that additional factors, e.g. flexural strength and localized plasticity, also strongly influenced the tensile performance of T-slot ILMs joining dissimilar materials. The proposed optimal design remained the best performer. Conclusions This study demonstrates the viability of ILMs as a joining method for dissimilar materials. ILMs can join dissimilar materials with no loss in joint yield strength compared to joints composed solely of the weaker of the two constitutive materials. ILMs demonstrated their potential as a versatile and effective joining technology in diverse engineering applications.

Elbrecht, Benjamin James [Sandia National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tailoring Cu-Zr gradient nanoglass structures: Influence of nanoparticle size and cooling rates on glass-glass interfaces

The study of gradient nanoglasses (GNGs) has gained attention due to their unique mechanical properties and potential applications in advanced materials. This study employs molecular dynamics simulations to synthesize a GNG using Cu-Zr metallic glass nanoparticles (NPs) sized from 3 to 15 nm. The NPs were produced by melting and quenching metallic clusters at a relatively slow quench rate of 10 9 K/s. The synthesis of GNG is elucidated along with the characterization of its heterogeneous metallic glass nanostructure. A seamless GNG structure is formed through cold compression of Cu 64 Zr 36 amorphous NPs of varying sizes. The influence of NP size on the GNG structure is investigated, utilizing deeply relaxed NPs, which exhibit a characteristic Cu segregation pattern on their surfaces. The results highlight an increase in structural heterogeneity due to heterogeneous mass transport and the development of local composition and density variations caused by Cu segregation at glass-glass interfaces (GGIs). A reduction in NP size is correlated with decreased Cu atomic displacements and local density at GGIs, suggesting that larger NPs may produce stronger GGIs. This research presents a novel methodology for synthesizing heterogeneous metallic glasses, demonstrating the capacity to control and customize nanostructure heterogeneity through the manipulation of NP sizes and cooling rates. Furthermore, these findings enhance our understanding of structural evolution during nanoglass synthesis and lay the foundation for further exploration in nanomaterial synthesis and characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconvoluting sources of variability in aerosol jet printing using light scattering measurements

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) is a digital additive manufacturing technique for hybrid and conformal electronics, where its contactless deposition readily enables patterning over 3D surface topography. However, the complexity of aerosol transport physics makes deposition rate sensitive to process variability, hindering widespread industry adoption. Light scattering measurements have recently been demonstrated as a capable tool for measuring deposition rate in real time, enabling closed-loop control and in-situ qualification frameworks. These inline optical measurements present further opportunity as a diagnostic tool to understand the effects of secondary process parameters affecting vapor–liquid equilibrium and heat and mass transport during deposition. Downstream of the optical measurement cell, changing the sheath gas flow rate, increasing temperature via an inline heater, and adding solvent vapor via a sheath gas bubbler were observed to alter drying physics during sheath-collimation, and thereby impaction efficiency. Further upstream, the introduction of solvent vapor via a carrier gas bubbler and liquid build-up in the printhead were seen to affect the quantitative relationship between the light scattering data and the true deposition rate. Using this information, tightened controls of meaningful secondary parameters were implemented to improve the batch-to-batch consistency for printing a dielectric ink. In addition to advancing AJP process reliability for production, this work demonstrates the capability of inline optical measurements to provide insight into process physics and deconvolute competing mechanisms that underly variability.

additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2024

RCEMIP-II: mock-Walker simulations as phase II of the radiative–convective equilibrium model intercomparison project

Abstract. The radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) model intercomparison project (RCEMIP) leveraged the simplicity of RCE to focus attention on moist convective processes and their interactions with radiation and circulation across a wide range of model types including cloud-resolving models (CRMs), general circulation models (GCMs), single-column models, global cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. While several robust results emerged across the spectrum of models that participated in the first phase of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-I), two points that stand out are (1) the strikingly large diversity in simulated climate states and (2) the strong imprint of convective self-aggregation on the climate state. However, the lack of consensus in the structure of self-aggregation and its response to warming is a barrier to understanding. Gaining a deeper understanding of convective aggregation and tropical climate will require reducing the degrees of freedom with which convection can vary. Therefore, we propose phase II of RCEMIP (RCEMIP-II) that utilizes a prescribed sinusoidal sea surface temperature (SST) pattern to provide a constraint on the structure of convection and move one critical step up the model hierarchy. This so-called “mock-Walker” configuration generates features that resemble observed tropical circulations. The specification of the mock-Walker protocol for RCEMIP-II is described, along with example results from one CRM and one GCM. RCEMIP-II will consist of five required simulations: three simulations with the same three mean SSTs as in RCEMIP-I but with an SST gradient and two additional simulations at one of the mean SSTs with different values of the SST gradients. We also test the sensitivity to the imposed SST gradient and the domain size. Under weak SST gradients, unforced self-aggregation emerges across the entire domain, similar to what was found in RCEMIP. As the SST gradient increases, the convective region narrows and is more confined to the warmest SSTs. At warmer mean SSTs and stronger SST gradients, low-frequency variability in the convective aggregation emerges, suggesting that simulations of at least 200 d may be needed to achieve robust equilibrium statistics in this configuration. Simulations with different domain sizes generally have similar mean statistics and convective structures, depending on the value of the SST gradient. The prescribed SST boundary condition is the only difference in the set-up between RCEMIP-II and RCEMIP-I, which enables comparison between the two; however, we also welcome participation in RCEMIP-II from models that did not participate in RCEMIP-I.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Contrast Pattern Projection To Enable Background Oriented Schlieren Based Air Leak Detection Through Any Interior Or Exterior Building Surface

Air leakage in buildings wastes an estimated 4 quads of energy per year in the United States. Finding and sealing leakage sites is critical in existing buildings. Previous work has shown that background oriented Schlieren (BOS) imaging can be used to visualize air leakage but requires the leak to exit through a high contrast surface like a brick wall. To remedy this, different techniques of projecting various high contrast patterns on low contrast building surfaces like interior gypsum walls or vinyl siding were investigated. For each technique, the background quality was measured and compared to an ideal printed random dot background. The background quality metrics were correlated with the measured visualization metrics to understand which metrics are most important for maximizing air leak visualization performance. In this work, leakage visualization performance is presented for these various projected backgrounds with an aim to expand the building surfaces suitable for the BOS leak detector.

Jatana, Gurneesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000288903225)↗
DOE OSTI2024

A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention

A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flow pattern and void fraction characterization in nitrogen/water flows through a diamond-type triply periodic minimal surface lattice

Here, this study presents, to the authors knowledge, the first experimental investigation on the void fraction and flow patterns in two-phase flows through a diamond-type Triply Periodic Minimal Surface (TPMS) lattice. An additively manufactured TPMS structure was tested under upward co-current flow of a water/nitrogen mixture. Superficial velocities varied for a total of 42 test conditions (gas: 0.01–2.4 m/s; liquid: 0.01–2.4 m/s; mass flux: 20–2370 kg/m 2 ·s). High-speed video and X-ray imaging enabled time-averaged void fraction measurements and identified six distinct flow regimes which were used to develop a flow pattern map. Comparison of the void fraction data with correlations from literature demonstrated the Rouhani and Axelsson (1970) [49] correlation modified by Steiner (1993) [52] provided the best agreement, which was improved with empirically fit coefficients. This approach predicted the void fraction with errors < ±20% for 64% of the data, with a mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD) of 23%. The measured frictional pressure drop was compared to correlations from literature which captured the observed trends but did not provide good accuracy. The best agreement was found after optimizing the empirical coefficients of the Muller-Steinhagen & Heck (1986) [56] correlation; this approach captured 33% of the data within ±20% with a MAPD of 46% over the full range and captured 71% of the data within ±20% a MAPD of 13.3% at mass fluxes >1100 kg/m 2 -s. These results provide foundational insight into TPMS two-phase flow behavior and inform modeling and design of advanced heat exchange components incorporating TPMS geometries.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermodynamics of MgO Atomic Layer Deposition Surface Reactions

The realities of atomic layer deposition (ALD) surface reactions often deviate from the simple ligand exchange frequently used to illustrate the technique. A detailed understanding of these reactions is necessary to develop greater surface synthetic control including chemical selectivity for patterning or to target defects. Here, the thermodynamics of surface reactions relevant to MgO ALD were investigated using pyroelectric calorimetry to measure the time-resolved heat generation. These reactions show exothermic heat generation of 0.12 mJ/cm 2 and 0.15 mJ/cm 2 for alternating Mg(CpEt) 2 and H 2 O reactions, respectively. The total reaction heat closely matches the standard reaction enthalpy for bulk MgO, supplemented with first-principles molecular calculations. First-principles models further reveal that while simple ligand exchange is favorable during surface reactions, the required increase in Mg-coordination number from two in the precursor to six in bulk MgO requires additional coverage-dependent surface reactions, which depend on the availability and stability of proximal surface hydroxyls.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anti-distortion bioinspired camera with an inhomogeneous photo-pixel array

The bioinspired camera, comprising a single lens and a curved image sensor—a photodiode array on a curved surface—, was born of flexible electronics. Its economical build lends itself well to space-constrained machine vision applications. The curved sensor, much akin to the retina, helps image focusing, but the curvature also creates a problem of image distortion, which can undermine machine vision tasks such as object recognition. Here we report an anti-distortion single-lens camera, where 4096 silicon photodiodes arrayed on a curved surface in a nonuniform pattern assimilated to the distorting optics are the key to anti-distortion engineering. That is, the photo-pixel distribution pattern itself is warped in the same manner as images are warped, which correctively reverses distortion. Acquired images feature no appreciable distortion across a 120° horizontal view, as confirmed by their neural-network recognition accuracies. This distortion correction via photo-pixel array reconfiguration is a form of in-sensor computing.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-Domain Extreme-Ultraviolet Diffuse Scattering Spectroscopy of Nanoscale Surface Phonons

Here, we report the observation of dynamic fringe patterns in the diffuse scattering of extreme ultraviolet light from surfaces, following femtosecond optical excitation. At each point on the detector, the diffuse scattering intensity exhibits oscillations at well-defined frequencies that correspond to surface phonons with wave vectors determined by the scattering geometry, indicating that the optical excitation generates coherent surface phonons propagating in all directions and spanning a wavelength range from 60 to 300 nm. This phenomenon is observed on a variety of samples, including single-layer and multilayer metal films, as well as bulk semiconductors. The measured surface phonon dispersions show good agreement with theoretical calculations. By comparing signal amplitudes from samples with different surface morphologies, we find that the excitation mechanism is linked to the natural surface roughness of the samples. However, the signal is still detectable on extremely smooth surfaces with subnanometer roughness. Our findings demonstrate a simple and effective method for optically exciting coherent surface phonons with nanoscale wavelengths on a wide range of solid samples and establish a foundation for surface phonon spectroscopy in a wave vector range well beyond the limit of conventional surface Brillouin scattering.

Capotondi, F. [Elettra-Sincrotrone Trieste (Italy)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing the impact of oxygen negative ions on the self-organized pattern in 1 atm DC glow with liquid anode

In an atmospheric DC glow discharge with a liquid anode, the plasma anode glow attached to the grounded liquid surface under certain conditions self-organizes into coherent patterns. Optical emission spectroscopy revealed that the emission consists primarily of the second positive system of nitrogen, N 2 (C-B), whose excitation energy is low and sensitive to changes in the electron energy distribution. In addition to electrons, negative ions can accumulate in the anode sheath and affect the local space charge. It has been speculated that these negative ions play a role in pattern formation at the anode surface. In this work, the role of oxygen negative ions was explored. It was found that the formation of anode patterns requires at least a 7% volume fraction of oxygen in the ambient gas. Results showed that O 2 - is the dominant negative ion species in atmospheric DC glow discharge, with a density of ~10 12 cm -3 . While the presence of oxygen appears to be crucial for pattern formation, this study indicated that patterns still formed without geometric changes even when 62% of negative ions in the plasma were detached by a laser. This suggests that negative ions do not support the patterns, while oxygen's heating effect may induce instability at the anode.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗