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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating cascaded and tunable phase change materials for enhanced thermal energy storage utilization and effectiveness in building envelopes

The incorporation of phase change materials (PCMs) in envelope is considered an effective thermal energy storage (TES) method for energy savings and load flexibility in buildings. However, an important limitation of PCMs is their fixed and narrow transition temperature range. Because the interior temperature setpoints are typically different in summer versus winter, and the exterior temperature varies substantially above and below the setpoints during the year, PCMs with a fixed transition temperature are utilized only during part of the year. In this paper, we provide an extensive numerical analysis of the performance of a lightweight building envelope containing three different types of PCMs: traditional single-layer PCM with a fixed transition temperature, novel cascaded two-layer PCM with different transition temperatures, and a "futuristic" tunable PCM whose transition temperature can be varied in-situ using external excitation. We compare their performances by evaluating the relationship between the PCM utilization and parameters such as latent heat, transition temperature range, PCM thickness, and PCM location. While traditional PCMs are mostly active during one season, properly designed cascaded and tunable PCMs can be active much longer, thereby allowing load shift and energy savings in both heating and cooling seasons. Under the operating conditions considered in this study, tunable PCMs performed best, providing the highest utilization (about 2 times the traditional PCMs) and enhanced effectiveness (up to 99% peak load reduction in cooling season and 34% peak load reduction in heating season) with the same amount of material as the traditional PCMs; however, cascaded PCMs can be a good alternative while tunable PCMs are unavailable.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal electric-distribution-grid planning considering the demand-side flexibility of thermal building systems for a test case in Singapore

The planning of district-scale electric grids, i.e., distribution grids, has traditionally relied on finding the most cost-effective design such that they are able to supply the peak loads in a district. With the advent of electric demand side flexibility (DSF), there is the opportunity to reshape peak loads such that the investment cost of the electric grid decreases in exchange for a minor increase in the operation cost. This paper formulates an optimal planning approach for the electric grid at the district scale, which incorporates the DSF from thermal building systems, e.g., heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and aims at minimizing the investment cost for the grid along with the operation cost of the flexible loads. This is subjected to the fixed electricity demand and thermal comfort constraints of building occupants. To this end, linear models for the thermal comfort in the buildings and the power flow in electric grid are considered. The approach is tested on a district planning test case based in Singapore, where the results show up to 30.9 % reductions in investment cost and up to 3.7 % reduction in total annualized cost. Urban planning authorities, developers and utility companies can all benefit from the presented approach to make optimized investment decisions. For building operators, the results point to the need of adopting their control systems for DSF.

Troitzsch, Sebastian↗
DOE OSTI2021

US building energy efficiency and flexibility as an electric grid resource

Buildings consume 75% of U.S. electricity; therefore, improving the efficiency and flexibility of building operations could increase the reliability and resilience of the rapidly-changing electricity system. We estimate the technical potential near- and long-term impacts of best available building efficiency and flexibility measures on annual electricity use and hourly demand across the contiguous U.S. Co-deployment of building efficiency and flexibility avoids up to 742 TWh of annual electricity use and 181 GW of daily net peak load in 2030, rising to 800 TWh and 208 GW by 2050; at least 59 GW and 69 GW of the peak reductions are dispatchable. Implementing efficiency measures alongside flexibility measures reduces the potential for off-peak load increases, underscoring limitations on load shifting in efficient buildings. Overall, however, we find a substantial building-grid resource that could reduce future fossil-fired generation needs while also reducing dependence on energy storage with increasing variable renewable energy penetration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Value of Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings through Field Study: Preprint

Quantifying the annual energy impacts of efficient technologies in commercial buildings has been well established by the building science field. As we move toward enabling grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB) targeting flexible building operation and carbon reduction, quantification methods to evaluate time-sensitive peak load and emissions impact are much less defined. A number of national laboratories are working to field validate four different GEB software solutions that provide the capability to control multiple building end-use systems in multiple load flexibility modes (i.e., energy efficiency, load shed, load shift, and possible load modulation at the second to sub-second level). To guide the laboratory leads in effective measurement and verification (M&V) practices, two of the laboratories collaborated to define metrics to quantify the impacts of flexible load control on building demand, utility costs, carbon emissions, facility management, and occupant comfort. This paper summarizes the proposed metrics to quantify peak load and emission impacts in the field, decision parameters, approaches to accurately conduct M&V, lessons learned, and outstanding needs and next steps.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Value of Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings through Field Study

Quantifying the annual energy impacts of efficient technologies in commercial buildings has been well established by the building science field. As we move toward enabling grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB) targeting flexible building operation and carbon reduction, quantification methods to evaluate time-sensitive peak load and emissions impact are much less defined. A number of national laboratories are working to field validate four different GEB software solutions that provide the capability to control multiple building end-use systems in multiple load flexibility modes (i.e., energy efficiency, load shed, load shift, and possible load modulation at the second to sub-second level). To guide the laboratory leads in effective measurement and verification (M&V) practices, two of the laboratories collaborated to define metrics to quantify the impacts of flexible load control on building demand, utility costs, carbon emissions, facility management, and occupant comfort. This paper summarizes the proposed metrics to quantify peak load and emission impacts in the field, decision parameters, approaches to accurately conduct M&V, lessons learned, and outstanding needs and next steps.

Langner, Rois↗
DOE OSTI2024

Depot Charging Schedule Optimization for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Battery-Electric Trucks

Charge management, which lowers charging costs for fleets and prevents straining the electrical grid, is critical to the successful deployment of medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric trucks (MHD BETs). This study introduces an energy demand and cost management framework that optimizes depot charging for MHD BETs by combining an energy consumption machine learning model and a linear program optimization model. The framework considers key factors impacting real-world MHD BET operations, including vehicle and charger configurations, duty cycles, use cases, geographic and climate conditions, operation schedules, and utilities’ time-of-use (TOU) rates and demand charges. The framework was applied to a hypothetical fleet of 100 MHD BETs in California under three different utilities for 365 days, with results compared to unmanaged charging. The optimized charging solution avoided more than 90% of on-peak charging, reduced fleet charging peak load by 64–75%, and lowered fleet energy variable costs by 54–64%. This study concluded that the proposed charge management framework significantly reduces energy costs and peak loads for MHD BET fleets while making recommendations for fleet electrification infrastructure planning and the design of utility TOU rates and demand charges.

Song, Shuhan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Delivering Energy Efficiency and Grid Services for Commercial Buildings on an IoT-Platform: Field Evaluation Plan

In FY20, the Commercial Buildings Integration Program (CBI) within Building Technologies Office (BTO) has funded PNNL to conduct field evaluation of the AIRCx and intelligent load control (ILC) using an Internet-of-Things (IoT) platform, VOLTTRON. The primary goal of the project is to show that software solutions deployed and delivered through an IoT-platform can identify energy efficiency opportunities and manage peak load in commercial buildings. There are also two secondary goals: 1) show that the energy efficiency solutions will result in identification of significant savings (10% to 30%) opportunities as well as energy cost reductions (10% to 15%) by managing the peak load in commercial buildings, and 2) show that an IoT-based software solution is more cost-effective in meeting the Re-tuning mandates than traditional retro commissioning (RCx) and there is a pathway for broader adoption of this approach. This report details how the field evaluation will be conducted, including what enhancements will be made to the software technologies, how PNNL will recruit energy service providers, types of buildings where the technology will be evaluated, metric of success for the field evaluation, and how the metric of success will be measured.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Analysis Approach for Large Data Volumes in a Connected Community

Recent advancements within smart neighborhoods where utilities are enabling automatic control of appliances such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and water heater (WH) systems are providing new opportunities to minimize energy costs through reduced peak load. This requires systematic collection, storage, management, and in-memory processing of large volumes of streaming data for fast performance. In this paper, we propose a multi-tier layered IoT software framework that enables effective descriptive and predictive data analysis for understanding live operation of the neighborhood, fault identification, and future opportunities for further optimization of load curves. We then demonstrate how we achieve live situational awareness of the connected neighborhood through a suite of visualization components. Finally, we discuss a few analytic dashboards that address questions such as peak load reductions obtained due to optimization, customer preference for automatic control of appliances (do they override the automatic control of HVAC?, etc.). 1 1 This manuscript has been authored by UT-Battelle, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the article for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a nonexclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes. The Department of Energy will provide public access to these results of federally sponsored research in accordance with the DOE Public Access Plan (http://energy.gov/downloads/doe-public-access-plan).

Chinthavali, Supriya↗
DOE OSTI2025

An assessment of the global cooling supply chain and implications for critical minerals

The global room air conditioner (AC) industry has undergone rapid growth, and the U.S. and India now face new supply chain risks due to China’s dominant role in manufacturing and driving demand. As India’s room AC market and related electricity consumption increases with continued economic development, it faces dual challenges of supply chain vulnerabilities and power grid blackouts from higher peak loads. To mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities for high-efficiency cooling equipment and critical mineral inputs to AC components, there is an increasing need to diversify the supply chain and address energy security and peak load risks to both the U.S. and India. This report assesses the potential for diversifying supply chains and scaling up manufacturing of highly efficient cooling equipment technologies and related critical mineral inputs in the U.S. and India. Successful cooperation on these technologies will enable the U.S., India, and their Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) partners to diversify AC supply chains while meeting India’s large and growing demand for efficient cooling. In the similarly concentrated supply chain for critical minerals, the U.S. and India can work with Japan and Australia to leverage each country’s strengths in diversifying mining, processing, and refining while pursuing alternatives to materials with high supply chain risks and supporting increased recycling and circular economy approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Performance Evaluation of Distributed Energy Resources Management System via Advanced Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulation: Preprint

This paper presents an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform to evaluate the performance of voltage regulation coordinated across advanced distribution management systems (ADMS), distributed energy management system (DERMS), and DERs. The HIL platform provides realistic laboratory testing, including accurate modeling of the real-world distribution system from a utility partner, real controller (ADMS and DERMs) and power (DERs) hardware, and standard communications protocols. The test results show proper functionalities of the integrated platform and performance of the peak load management of coordinated control systems. Based on the laboratory testing, the utility can set up the same grid automation system to manage DERs to achieve system-level control and operation objectives (e.g., peak load management), thus derisking potential issues (e.g., instability) for field deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupling thermal energy storage with a thermally anisotropic building envelope for building demand-side management across various US climate conditions

Here, the thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is a novel active building envelope that enhances energy efficiency and thermal comfort in buildings by transferring heat and cold between building envelopes and hydronic loops. When coupled with thermal energy storage (TES) units, the TABE + TES enables the storage of both heat and cold energy captured by the TABE roof or exterior walls. This stored energy can be later released by the TABE floor for indoor heating and cooling, benefiting both the grid and the end user. This paper evaluates the merits of TABE + TES for building demand-side management across various US climate conditions, focusing on peak load shaving, annual energy savings, and cost savings under time-of-use (TOU) electric rate schedules. Simulations were conducted by integrating time-of-day–informed, rule-based control strategies in MATLAB, TABE components and TES units in COMSOL Multiphysics, and whole-building energy analysis in EnergyPlus. A case study using the US Department of Energy’s prototype single-family detached house model in Birmingham, Alabama; Los Angeles, California; Oak Ridge, Tennessee; and Denver, Colorado, showed that the TABE + TES system achieved (1) 70 % peak load shaving in Los Angeles and Denver and 20 % in Birmingham and Oak Ridge; (2) significant peak electricity savings of 351–497 kWh, reducing peak energy consumption by 38 %–78 %; and (3) annual heating cost savings of 0.79 $\$$/m2–1.17 $\$$/m 2 and cooling cost savings of 0.60 $\$$/m 2 –1.17 $\$$/m 2 using a normal utility rate or low-TOU rate. The benefits of employing the TABE + TES system are even more significant under high TOU rates.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Energy Efficiency Analysis and Grid Service Results for Commercial Buildings using the VOLTRON IoT Platform

In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the Commercial Buildings Integration Program (CBI) within the Building Technologies Office (BTO), funded PNNL to conduct a field evaluation of the AIRCx and ILC using an Internet-of-Things (IoT) platform, VOLTTRON. The primary goal of the project is to show that software solutions deployed and delivered through an IoT-platform can identify energy efficiency opportunities and manage peak load (beyond the traditional demand response) in commercial buildings. There are also two secondary goals: 1) show that the energy efficiency solutions will result in identification of significant savings opportunities (10% to 30%) as well as energy cost reductions (10% to 15%) by managing the peak load in commercial buildings, and 2) show that an IoT-based software solution is more cost-effective compared to a manual process in meeting the Re-tuning/retro commissioning (RCx) mandates and there is a pathway for broader adoption of this approach. This report provides AIRCx and ILC results for two building located in District of Columbia managed by the energy service provider Intellimation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifunctional Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Composites for Damage Detection and Memory

Self-structural health monitoring (SHM) functionalities for fiber-reinforced polymer composites have become highly sought after to ensure the structural safety of newly advancing components in the automotive, civil, mechanical, and aerospace industries. This paper introduces a self-damage detection and memory (SDDM) hybrid composite material, where the structural carbon fiber tow is transformed into a piezoresistive sensor network, and the structural glass fiber operates as electrical insulation. In this study, SDDM specimens were fabricated, and tensile and impact tests were performed. The tensile tests of SDDM specimens find two distinct loading peaks: first where the carbon fiber fails, and second where the glass fiber fails. A linear correlation was observed between the carbon fiber resistance and composite strain up to a threshold, beyond which a sharp nonlinear increase in resistance occurred. The resistance then approached infinity, coinciding with the first loading peak and failure of the carbon fiber elements. This demonstrates the potential for a damage early warning threshold. Additionally, the effect of stitching the sensor tow in a zig-zag pattern over a large area was investigated using tailored fiber placement (TFP) of 1-loop, 3-loop, and 5-loop specimens. Tensile testing found that increasing the number of loops improved the sensor’s accuracy for strain sensing. Furthermore, impact tests were conducted, and as the impact energy progressively increased, the sensor resistance permanently increased. This illustrates a capability for self-memory of microdamage throughout the life cycle of the structure, potentially useful for predicting the remaining life of the composite.

Demo, Luke B. (ORCID:0000000208806522)↗