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Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. I - Methodology and hemispheric regimes. II - Sectorial regimes and preferred transitions

Multivariate pdfs in the phase space of large-scale atmospheric motions are examined in order to identify recurrent and persistent flow patterns. The extent to which intraseasonal variablity can be described and understood in terms of multiple flow regimes is clarified. It is shown that the synoptically intriguing and statistically significant inhomogeneities exhibited by the 2D phase plane on the periphery of the distribution are due to the existence of persistent and recurrent anomaly patterns. It is argued that these inhomgeneities are obscured when PDFs are examined in a smaller-dimensional subspace than dynamically desired. A synoptic characterization of onsets and breaks for the flow regimes is given by compositing. In situ evolutions of anomaly patterns, slow westward shifts of high-latitude anomaly centers, and successive downstream increase of anomaly magnitudes are the typical signatures of such events.

Kimoto, Masahide

Effect of marine stratocumulus in TOMS ozone

The algorithm used to correct total O3 from the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) for cloud effects is based on the measured reflectivity, a climatological cloud top height, and an assumed tropospheric O3 column amount below clouds. In regions of persistent subtropical marine stratocumulus it is assumed that this introduces a positive error into total O3 because these clouds are lower than the assumed mean cloud height used in the algorithm. This appears to be confirmed by high correlation between Nimbus 7 TOMS total O3 and reflectivity data for typical regimes of persistent stratus, as identified by the international satellite cloud climatology project (ISCCP) observations. The TOMS total O3 overestimate has been computed using Nimbus 7/solar backscattered ultraviolet total O3 derived using temperature humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) data for years 1979-1984. A functional relationship between the THIR/non-THIR total O3 difference and reflectivity is used with TOMS reflectivity to modify Nimbus 7 TOMS O3 data for selected regions and periods. The correction diminishes or eliminates a number of apparent O3 maxima, with reductions of up to 20 Dobson units (DU) in total O3 on daily maps and approximately 5 DU on monthly mean O3 maps. Significant correlation between corrected TOMS O3 and reflectivity data remains because low-altitude O3 is retrieved more efficiently over a high-albedo surface. It is also possible that dynamical influences leading to stratocumulus formation bring O3-enriched air into the area. These results imply that although good arguments can be made for the use of TOMS total O3 as a proxy for tropospheric O3 in the tropics, caution must be exercised in the use of daily and even monthly O3 maps in the vicinity of clouds. Further research into the TOMS algorithm in cloudy regions is required to derive reliable estimates of tropospheric O3.

Thompson, A. M.

A Heuristic Approach to Correlating ERAM Flight Data from Twenty Centers

Among its many other functions, the Federal Aviation Administration’s En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) provides external systems with real-time air traffic data for flights in enroute airspace in the National Airspace System. It replaced the En Route Host computer and backup system used at 20 FAA Air Route Traffic Control Centers (Centers) nationwide. Among the new features of ERAM, its output data stream of flight plan and track data includes a unique identifier for a flight originating in any one of the 20 ERAM Centers. The unique identifier, called the Global Unique Flight Identifier (GUFI), is persistent across all the Centers that track the flight. However, certain factors make it difficult to correlate data using the GUFI. First, the value of the GUFI is only unique within a time window of seven days. Second, the GUFI is attached only to flight-plan related data messages. Finally, track positions reported by ERAM do not reference the GUFI. In order to correlate historical as well as real time flight-plan and position related ERAM data, an efficient, heuristic approach was developed, and a prototype was developed. The approach showed that the processing speed, through parallel processing, is sufficient to correlate ERAM data in real-time. As described in this paper, when there are multiple track positions reported from multiple Centers within a few seconds, each position is assigned with a weighted score to indicate the quality of the position relative to its last know position. The weighted score can be used to eliminate potentially duplicate track positions. The approach is database-agnostic, and can be implemented in a Big Data system such as an Apache Hadoop system, as well as in traditional database systems.

Correlating ERAM Flight Data

StrayCats: A Catalog of NuSTAR Stray Light Observations

We present StrayCats, a catalog of NuSTAR stray light observations of X-ray sources. Stray light observations arise for sources 1°–4°away from the telescope pointing direction. At this off-axis angle, X-rays pass through agap between the optics and aperture stop and so do not interact with the X-ray optics; instead, they directly illuminate the NuSTAR focal plane. We have systematically identified and examined over 1400 potential observations resulting in a catalog of 436 telescope fields and 78 stray light sources that have been identified. The sources identified include historically known persistently bright X-ray sources, X-ray binaries in outburst, pulsars, and type I X-ray bursters. In this paper, we present an overview of the catalog, how we identified the StrayCats sources, and the analysis techniques required to produce high-level science products. Finally, we present a few brief examples of the science quality of these unique data.

Brian W. Grefenstette

Average Characteristics of Triggered and Nontriggered Substorms

Magnetic field data from ground stations, geosynchronous orbit, and magnetotail are examined to study the response to substorm activity with and without apparent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) perturbations. Global substorms are identified using a sudden, persistent decrease in the AL index. The onset of this global expansion is taken to be the time of the Pi2 burst nearest to the beginning of the AL decrease. IMF triggers were identified subjectively through visual scanning of the data. Both northward turnings of the IMF B, and decreases in the amplitude of the By component were considered as possible triggers. Two different solar wind monitors were used in the investigation: IMP 8 in a circular orbit with a distance between approx.12 and approx.35 R(sub E) from the Earth-Sun line and ISEE 2 in an elliptical orbit with a distance of only approx.5- 10 R(sub E) from the Earth-Sun line. The results of superposed epoch analysis show that the temporal response from ground stations, geosynchronous orbit, and magnetotail are nearly identical for triggered (with apparent IMF perturbation) and nontriggered (without apparent IMF perturbation) substorms. It is therefore concluded that the nontriggered substorms are not a different form of activity than triggered substorms. However, we demonstrate that the magnitude of the response is different for the two types of substo&. By every measure considered, triggered substorm are systematically larger than nontriggered substorms. We interpret the fact that nearly 40% of all substorms cannot be associated with an IMF trigger as evidence that substorms are caused by an internal instability. However, the fact that so many appear to be triggered suggests that this internal instability is susceptible to external perturbations by the IMF. The fact that triggered substorms are larger than nontriggered substorms is counterintuitive, and we have no explanation for the observation.

Hsu, Tung-Shin

Occurrence frequencies of IMF triggered and nontriggered substorms

The occurrence of triggered and nontriggered substorm are examined in light of current interest in such issues as substorm identification, IMF By variations, and potentially undetected small-scale solar wind perturbation. Global substorms are identified using a sudden, persistent decrease in the AL index. The onset of this global expansion is taken to be the time of the Pi 2 burst nearest in time to the beginning of the AL, decrease. IMF triggers were identified both subjectively through visual scanning of the data and automatically with a computer algorithm. Both northward turnings of the IMF Bz and decreases in the amplitude of the By component were considered as possible triggers. Two different solar wind monitors were used in the investigation: IMP-8 in a circular orbit with a distance 12 to approx.35 Re to the Earth-Sun line and ISEE-2 in an elliptical orbit with a distance only 5 to approx.10 Re to the Earth-Sun line. The IMP-8 results show that the triggering probability does not depend on the distance of the monitor from the Earth-Sun line in the range 12-35 Re. The ISEE dataset shows that closer than 12 Re the triggering probability is the same as it is in the IMP-8 data set. Thus there appears to be no dependence of triggering on the location of the monitor provided it is within 35 Re of the Earth. We also demonstrate that including the By component does not significantly increase the probability of substorm triggering. Approximately 60% of all substorms appear to be triggered. Of the 40% for which we could not identify a trigger, 10% occurred while the IMF was northward. The data suggest that substorm onset is a consequence of an internal magnetospheric instability that is highly sensitive to changes in magnetospheric convection induced by a sudden change in the IMF, but that these changes are not always necessary.

Hsu, Tung-Shin

The dynamics of large-scale cyclogenesis over the North Pacific Ocean

Wintertime cases of persistent cyclonic flow abnormalities over the North Pacific were studied with the aim of identifying the primary mechanisms for persistent anomaly development. Processes influencing the time evolution of eddy potential enstrophy and potential vorticity anomalies were examined using intensive diagnostic analyses. Analysis indicates that the primary source region for large-scale development is located over the mid-Pacific jet exit region. Potential enstrophy analysis shows that eddy enstrophy increases result from local conversions between the large-scale eddy and the climatological-mean flow. The occurrence of a form of baroclinic 'self development' during large-scale intensification is suggested by potential vorticity inversions. Baroclinic and barotropic processes contribute positively to the large-scale developments. Results indicate that the primary mechanism for the developments is a large-scale instability of the three-dimensional time-mean flow, and suggest that nonmodel transient growth plays a significant role during development.

Black, Robert X.

Persistent urinary metabolic signatures in children with type 1 diabetes

There are an estimated 3.7 million people with undiagnosed type 1 diabetes (T1D), living primarily in poor areas of the globe. Therefore, there is a need for non-invasive, affordable tests to provide accurate diagnosis despite the time post-disease onset and fasting state. Here, we studied persistent urinary T1D biomarkers that can be used to develop such tests. Here, we analyzed the urine metabolomes of three independent cohorts of samples collected within 48 h (from Indiana University), and 1 year (from University of Colorado) and 1–10 years (6 years in average) (from Children’s National Medical Center) post-diagnosis. Samples were submitted to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and machine learning an0alyses to determine diagnostic metabolite panels. The data were also mapped into a metabolic pathway to understand persistently regulated processes in T1D. Seven metabolites showed consistent increases in all three cohorts: d-glucose, d-mannose, myo-inositol, 3-hydroxyisobutyric acid, gluconolactone, d-gluconic acid, and d-glucuronic acid. A combination of machine learning analysis and metabolite ratios as biomarker candidates diagnosed T1D with high sensitivity and specificity across different cohorts and times. Mapping the regulated metabolites into a pathway showed impairment in glycolysis and overflow of glucose towards other pathways in subjects with T1D that was persistent over time. We identified and cross-validated highly specific and sensitive urinary biomarkers. This opens opportunities to develop affordable, robust, and non-invasive tests. The results also show that most of the biomarkers were signatures of dysregulated glucose metabolism.

Type 1 diabetes

Contextualizing Non-Powered Dam Site Selection for Archimedes Screw Turbines: A Methodology for Responsible Archimedes Screw Turbine Conversion at Existing Dams

Non-powered dams represent 97% of dams in the United States and their energy generation potential has not been fully realized. The use of an Archimedes screw turbine to generate power at non-powered dams offers a dual benefit; producing electricity, and acting as downstream fish passage, helping to reconnect previously separated ecosystems. In this study, we assess the technical, environmental, social, and economic feasibility of generating power at non-powered U.S. dam sites using Archimedes screw turbines by integrating mechanical constraints, social impact metrics, proximity to infrastructure, and environmental sensitivity data. Results account for future precipitation predictions and show, between 2024 and 2050, the number of sites where Archimedes screw turbines are viable decreases by one site, but overall generation capacity increases due to increased flow rates across persisting locations. Our analysis identified 82 non-powered dam sites with a mean generation capacity of 49 kW that meet the mechanical requirements for Archimedes screw turbine technology in 2024. Our analysis presents a framework for considering social, environmental, and economic impacts of specific turbine technologies to convert non-powered dams to generate power.

Archimedes screw turbine

Atmospheric weather regimes over tropical South America

Infrared radiance measurements by the GOES-6 satellite during April 1986 through April 1987 were used to characterize and identify distinct regimes of persistent large-scale cloudiness patterns over the Amazon Basin. It is suggested that the energetics of the tropical troposphere over the Amazon Basin can be directly related to the GOES large-scale cloudiness patterns. The geometry and persistence of the cloud patterns are influenced by shifts in general circulation features and are likely modulated by 4- to 5-day and 40- to 60-day waves. Diurnal forcing effects are more pronounced during weather regimes characterized by prominently clear skies over land areas.

Connors, Vickie S.

Host population dynamics influence Leptospira spp. transmission patterns among Rattus norvegicus in Boston, Massachusetts, US

Leptospirosis (caused by pathogenic bacteria in the genus Leptospira ) is prevalent worldwide but more common in tropical and subtropical regions. Transmission can occur following direct exposure to infected urine from reservoir hosts, or a urine-contaminated environment, which then can serve as an infection source for additional rats and other mammals, including humans. The brown rat, Rattus norvegicus , is an important reservoir of Leptospira spp. in urban settings. We investigated the presence of Leptospira spp. among brown rats in Boston, Massachusetts and hypothesized that rat population dynamics in this urban setting influence the transportation, persistence, and diversity of Leptospira spp. We analyzed DNA from 328 rat kidney samples collected from 17 sites in Boston over a seven-year period (2016–2022); 59 rats representing 12 of 17 sites were positive for Leptospira spp. We used 21 neutral microsatellite loci to genotype 311 rats and utilized the resulting data to investigate genetic connectivity among sampling sites. We generated whole genome sequences for 28 Leptospira spp. isolates obtained from frozen and fresh tissue from some of the 59 positive rat kidneys. When isolates were not obtained, we attempted genomic DNA capture and enrichment, which yielded 14 additional Leptospira spp. genomes from rats. We also generated an enriched Leptospira spp. genome from a 2018 human case in Boston. We found evidence of high genetic structure among rat populations that is likely influenced by major roads and/or other dispersal barriers, resulting in distinct rat population groups within the city; at certain sites these groups persisted for multiple years. We identified multiple distinct phylogenetic clades of L. interrogans among rats that were tightly linked to distinct rat populations. This pattern suggests L. interrogans persists in local rat populations and its transportation is influenced by rat population dynamics. Finally, our genomic analyses of the Leptospira spp. detected in the 2018 human leptospirosis case in Boston suggests a link to rats as the source. These findings will be useful for guiding rat control and human leptospirosis mitigation efforts in this and other similar urban settings.

Stone, Nathan E.

Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation - Structure

A study identifying horizontal and vertical structures of low patterns occurring with persistent 500 mb height anomalies in the central North Pacific, eastern North Atlantic, and northern Soviet Union regions is presented. The flow patterns of positive and negative anomalies are compared. The relationship between persistent anomalies and small recurrent anomaly patterns is examined. The temporal fluctuations of the persistent patterns are analyzed.

Dole, R. M.

Interpretation of high-harmonic fast-wave propagation in the scrape-off layer of NSTX-U as a geometrically bounded-waveguide mode

This paper revisits the onset of high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) propagation in the scrape-off layer (SOL) plasma of the NSTX/NSTX-U spherical tokamak, motivated by past HHFW heating and current drive experiments and modelling. Previously, the fast-wave propagation in the SOL was correlated with the opening (suppression) of the fast-wave right-hand cutoff layer in front of the antenna. In this work, the SOL propagation is interpreted as a geometric waveguide mode guided by the SOL geometry, whose radial width can be comparable to the wave’s perpendicular wavelength in the HHFW regime. A two-dimensional circular model is first employed using full-wave solvers to characterise the poloidal eigenmode structures and to clarify their relationship to annulus resonance. By progressively adding a tokamak-like magnetic-field configuration, starting from a uniform axial field, the effects of magnetic-field gradients and pitch on the SOL waveguide mode are characterised. The poloidal mode numbers supported by the SOL plasma agree well with analytic estimates, indicating that an anisotropic plasma in a bounded geometry selectively supports and amplifies the resonant poloidal mode number. Additionally, two-dimensional axisymmetric NSTX-U simulations demonstrate that the SOL eigenmode features identified in the circular model persist in the experimentally relevant configurations. A control approach based on lengthening the wave perpendicular wavelength relative to the SOL width, including a higher magnetic (B)-field operation, is discussed. The analysis here shows the key role of a bounded geometry in interpreting HHFW eigenmode coupling and propagation in the NSTX-U SOL plasma.

plasma heating

Oceanographic influences on the sea ice cover in the Sea of Okhotsk

Sea ice conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk, as determined by satellite images from the electrically scanning microwave radiometer on board Nimbus 5, were analyzed in conjunction with the known oceanography. In particular, the sea ice coverage was compared with the bottom bathymetry and the surface currents, water temperatures, and salinity. It is found that ice forms first in cold, shallow, low salinity waters. Once formed, the ice seems to drift in a direction approximating the Okhotsk-Kuril current system. Two basic patterns of ice edge positioning which persist for significant periods were identified as a rectangular structure and a wedge structure. Each of these is strongly correlated with the bathymetry of the region and with the known current system, suggesting that convective depth and ocean currents play an important role in determining ice patterns.

Gratz, A. J.

Mirroring of fast solar flare electrons on a downstream corotating interaction region

We discuss an example of confinement of fast solar electrons by a discrete solar wind-interplanetary magnetic field structure on February 22, 1991. The structure is about 190,000 km in width and is clearly defined by changes in the direction of the magnetic field at the Ulysses spacecraft. This structure carries electrons moving toward the Sun as well as away from the Sun. A loss cone in the angular distribution of the fast electrons shows that mirroring, presumably magnetic, takes place downstream from the spacecraft. Following passage of this narrow structure, the return flux vanishes for 21 min after which time the mirroring resumes and persists for several hours. We identify the enhanced magnetic field region lying downstream from the Ulysses spacecraft that is responsible for the mirroring to be a corotating stream interaction region. Backstreaming suprathermal electron measurements by the Los Alamos National Laboratory plasma experiment on the Ulysses spacecraft support this interpretation.

Anderson, K. A.

The Dynamics of Cascaded Monod System Models Through Five Levels

A Monod system model is a set of ordinary differential equations where the terms resemble those which Monod described in his 1949 paper. We focus on the multiple trophic level case in which each trophic level uses only one of the trophic levels for its perpetuation, and no two trophic entities use the same trophic cascaded level. The treatment derives from a primary producer progressively through five trophic levels. Stability types are identified and are related to persistence, and the consequences of some intuitive scaling structures are developed. These considerations are useful to some theoretical questions in ecology and to applications such as bioreactor operation.

Blackwell, Charles C.

The Dynamics of Cascaded Monod System Models Through Five Levels

In the context of this paper, a Monod system model is a set of ordinary differential equations in which the terms resemble those which Motion presented in his 1949 paper. Attention is directed to the multiple trophic level case in which each trophic level exploits only one of the trophic levels for its perpetuation, and no two trophic entities exploit the same trophic level (cascaded). The treatment expands from a primary producer progressively through five trophic levels. Types of stability are identified and are related to persistence, and the consequences of some intuitive scaling structures are developed. These considerations are relevant to some theoretical questions in ecology and to applications such as bioreactor operation.

Blackwell, Charles