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Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.

Brent W. Barbee↗

Prospects for Future Human Space Flight Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids

The forthcoming Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor space telescope is a foundational asset designed to complete NASA’s congressionally-mandated goal of cataloging ≥90% of NEOs ≥140 meters in size as soon as practical, and discover Earth impactors far in advance. NEO Surveyor is also critical to near-Earth asteroid (NEA) exploration because it will find suitable low-Δv NEAs for robotic and human missions, often on Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. Such NEAs have usually not been detected until imminent Earth launch opportunities because they were not observable until close to Earth. Discovering them far enough in advance to deploy missions requires a deep-space infrared survey telescope such as NEO Surveyor. In addition to posing hazards and being scientifically important, NEAs contain resources, such as water (OH), that could be utilized off-Earth. They also offer unique opportunities for the most ambitious human voyages ever undertaken. The Apollo program forever changed humanity’s perspective by showing us Earthrise from our Moon through human eyes. Crewed missions to NEAs will forever change our perspective again by showing us Earth as a distant point of light in the heavens as seen from an asteroid by astronauts. Planetary defense endeavors to understand asteroid and comet impact risks and develop mitigation capabilities. NEA exploration is synergistic in multiple ways. NEO Surveyor will discover and help characterize Earth impactors and accessible NEAs. Heavy-lift launch is highly enabling for both human NEA missions and planetary defense. Reconnaissance missions for planetary defense can also characterize NEAs prior to crewed missions. In situ resource utilization (ISRU) systems may be applicable to deflecting or destroying hazardous NEAs. NEA characterization data critically inform planetary defense efforts and indicate NEA types suitable for human exploration or ISRU. In 2010, NASA performed the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS), creating an automated online system monitoring mission accessibility of NEAs 2 . NHATS database NEAs meet criteria that require less total mission Δv and/or round-trip mission duration than the Martian surface or even Mars orbit. There are currently 4,658 NHATS NEAs, and many rival or exceed lunar orbit/surface accessibility. Thus, NHATS NEAs could be explored by humans prior to attempting a Mars mission. Human missions to NEAs would test human-rated spacecraft systems with less cost and risk than Mars missions. Thus, human missions to NEAs are compelling in their own right while also providing prudent preparation for more demanding Mars missions. Lunar missions can offer similar opportunities, but they differ from NEA missions in important ways. Lunar missions pose less demanding psychological challenges to crew and ground staff. Earth light-time delay for communications is significantly longer during NEA missions. NEA missions are available that require more propulsion system consumables than lunar missions but less than Mars missions. In this paper, we summarize NEA accessibility for human missions, discuss motivations for such missions, survey knowledge about NEAs that informs future human missions, present exemplar mission opportunities to the currently known NHATS NEAs, and describe future work towards enabling human NEA missions.

Near-Earth asteroids↗

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was humanity’s first attempt to move a celestial body, demonstrating the capability to perform a kinetic impact on a planetary defense–relevant sized asteroid. DART was part of the international collaboration known as the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA), involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), and scientists around the world. DART was a key step to demonstrating preparedness to respond to planetary defense scenarios, and it provides a crucial data point for likely outcomes. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than 140 m in size are of particular interest to planetary defense because they have the potential to cause significant damage if they were to impact Earth, and also because they are difficult to detect, with less than 50% of the predicted population discovered as of 2022 (National Academies Press, 2022). With an appropriately sized spacecraft and enough warning (typically many years to decades), a kinetic impact can slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a way that, over time, prevents the asteroid from colliding with Earth in the future. DART’s target was Dimorphos, the smaller (~150-m-diameter) member of the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, which is a near-Earth, potentially hazardous, and well-characterized asteroid system. By simply observing changes to the system after impact and comparing them with a pre-impact reference, it was possible to use ground-based telescopes to observe the deflection in the orbit of Dimorphos after impact. Developed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), the mission entered formulation in 2015 after multiple years of concept development. The project was administered according to NPR 7120.5, with technical oversight and funding through the Planetary Missions Program Office (PMPO) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and overall support as a directed mission from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The DART spacecraft hosted a singular payload, the Didymos Reconnaissance and Asteroid Camera for Optical navigation (DRACO), and a deployable CubeSat contributed by ASI named the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube). On 11 September 2022, DART deployed LICIACube, which subsequently followed the DART spacecraft at a safe distance and observed the immediate aftermath of the DART impact. DART was designed to autonomously detect, navigate to, and impact Dimorphos. This autonomous design was chosen to maximize the probability of impact, since commanding from the ground could result in course corrections arriving too late. On the day of impact, 26 September 2022, the spacecraft’s autonomous systems successfully detected and locked on to Dimorphos, impacting its surface within 2 m of the center of the illuminated figure (Jensenius et al., 2023). No human intervention was required for a successful impact, demonstrating that humanity possesses the technology to perform a kinetic impact. Within 2 weeks of impact, it was clear that the orbit of Dimorphos had been significantly altered. On 11 October 2022, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that the new orbital period of Dimorphos was shortened by approximately 32 ± 2 min, from 11 h and 55 min before impact to 11 h and 23 min after impact. With additional observations over the following months, the accuracy of this measurement improved to a –33.24 min ± 1.4 s orbital period change (Naidu et al., 2023; Scheirich et al., 2023), and Beta (β), the momentum transfer enhancement parameter, was reported to be 3.6 (Cheng et al., 2023). Subsequent studies examined the details of DART’s impact site, modeled the impact event, investigated the ejecta produced, and analyzed the dynamics of the Didymos system. These combined results clearly demonstrate that the project met all Level 1 mission requirements.

asteroid↗

Maturation of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

As described at IPPW 12 [1], NASA initiated a new research activity focused on Planetary Defense (PD) on October 1, 2014. The overarching function of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is to provide capabilities to assess impact damage of any Near-Earth Object (NEO) that could inflict on the Earth. The activity includes four interrelated efforts: Initial Conditions (at the atmospheric entry interface); Entry Modeling (energy deposition in the atmosphere); Hazards (on the surface including winds, over pressures, thermal exposures, craters, tsunami and earthquakes) and Risk (physics-based). This paper outlines progress by ATAP and highlights achievements that are complimentary to activities of interest to the International Planetary Probe community. The ATAPs work is sponsored by NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), a part of the agency's Science Mission Directorate [1] Arnold, J. O., et. al., Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense, IPPW 12 Cologne Germany, June 15-19. 2015.

Entry and Breakup↗

Technology Gaps for Rapid Response Missions to Near-Earth Objects, Interstellar Objects, and Long-Period Comets

The last several years has seen the discovery of the first two interstellar objects, the first ever planetary defense mission, recommendation for a rapid reconnaissance planetary defense demonstration, and the continued emergence of a robust commercial small satellite industry. The present and near future also consist of emerging next-generation observatories including Vera Rubin and NEO Surveyor. These seemingly disparate events converge in the context of rapid response: a cross-cutting capability that would enable NASA and the international community to quickly discover and respond to an emerging target such as a near-Earth object (NEO), interstellar object (ISO), or long-period comet (LPC) either for rapid characterization of a potential threat, or revolutionary science that would inform early solar system formation and evolution. In late October 2022, subject matter experts gathered at the California Institute of Technology in a week-long workshop sponsored by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) to address enabling mission concepts for rapid response and key technology gaps (final report in progress). These experts concurred that the ability to respond on the order of a few months is necessary for rapid in-situ characterization of a NEO, ISO, or LPC, and that while there are several technology gaps, this capability could be realized in the near future.

Technology gaps↗

Asteroid Retrieval Mission Concept - Trailblazing Our Future in Space and Helping to Protect Us from Earth Impactors

The Asteroid Retrieval Mission (ARM) is a robotic mission concept with the goal of returning a small (~7 m diameter) near-Earth asteroid (NEA), or part of a large NEA, to a safe, stable orbit in cislunar space using a 50 kW-class solar electric propulsion (SEP) robotic spacecraft (~40 kW available to the electric propulsion system) and currently available technologies. The mass of the asteroidal material returned from this mission is anticipated to be up to 1,000 metric tons, depending on the orbit of the target NEA and the thrust-to-weight and control authority of the SEP spacecraft. Even larger masses could be returned in the future as technological capability and operational experience improve. The use of high-power solar electric propulsion is the key enabling technology for this mission concept, and is beneficial or enabling for a variety of space missions and architectures where high-efficiency, low-thrust transfers are applicable. Many of the ARM operations and technologies could also be applicable to, or help inform, planetary defense efforts. These include the operational approaches and systems associated with the NEA approach, rendezvous, and station-keeping mission phases utilizing a low-thrust, high-power SEP spacecraft, along with interacting with, capturing, maneuvering, and processing the massive amounts of material associated with this mission. Additionally, the processed materials themselves (e.g., high-specific impulse chemical propellants) could potentially be used for planetary defense efforts. Finally, a ubiquitous asteroid retrieval and resource extraction infrastructure could provide the foundation of an on call planetary defense system, where a SEP fleet capable of propelling large masses could deliver payloads to deflect or disrupt a confirmed impactor in an efficient and timely manner.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗