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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Climate Predicts Geographic and Temporal Variation in Mosquito-Borne Disease Dynamics on Two Continents

Climate drives population dynamics through multiple mechanisms, which can lead to seemingly context-dependent effects of climate on natural populations. For climate-sensitive diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika, climate appears to have opposing effects in different contexts. Here we show that a model, parameterized with laboratory measured climate-driven mosquito physiology, captures three key epidemic characteristics across ecologically and culturally distinct settings in Ecuador and Kenya: the number, timing, and duration of outbreaks. The model generates a range of disease dynamics consistent with observed Aedes aegypti abundances and laboratory-confirmed arboviral incidence with variable accuracy (28–85% for vectors, 44–88%for incidence). The model predicted vector dynamics better in sites with a smaller proportion of young children in the population, lower mean temperature, and homes with piped water and made of cement. Models with limited calibration that robustly capture climate-virus relationships can help guide intervention efforts and climate change disease projections.

Climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

BSSD Performance Metric report: LLNL Soil Microbiome SFA (Q1 2021)

The LLNL “Microbes Persist” Soil Microbiome Scientific Focus Area (SFA) seeks to determine how microbial soil ecophysiology, population dynamics, and microbe-mineral-organic matter interactions regulate the persistence of microbial residues and the formation of soil carbon. Our SFA research program is now four years old; it evolved and benefited from previously-funded BSSD projects in the Firestone (UCB), Banfield (UCB), Sullivan (OSU) and Hungate (NAU) labs. We use stable isotope probing in combination with ‘omics to measure how changing water regimes shape activity of individual microbial populations and ecophysiological traits that affect the fate of microbial and plant C. Using measures of population dynamics and microbiome-mineral interactions, we are working to synthesize both genomescale and ecosystem-scale models of soil organic matter (SOM) turnover, to predict the long-aspired connection between soil microbiomes and fate of soil C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analytic rate theory of polariton relaxation that explains long polariton lifetime

Hybridization of a molecular exciton with a quantized photon creates a polariton. Despite extensive experimental investigations, the apparent lifetime of the exciton–polariton is not well-understood. For this work, we examined the steady-state population dynamics for a Holstein–Tavis–Cumming Hamiltonian to illuminate the long-term polaritonic dynamics and lifetime of the exciton–polariton in an optical cavity. For a realistic description of polariton relaxation, cavity loss and various exciton decay channels are included in the model. We found that in the presence of weak but finite exciton loss, the apparent lifetime of the lower polariton coincides with the out-of-cavity exciton lifetime and is independent of cavity-matter detuning. This is a simple explanation for the experimentally observed lifetimes for exciton polaritons and theoretically justifies the dark state reservoir hypothesis. Furthermore, if the upper polariton is initially populated, the system reaches the steady state very quickly, leading to single-exponential polariton relaxation. Starting from the lower polariton leads to a longer pre-steady-state time period, leading to double-exponential relaxation. Finally, we considered the effect of site orientational disorders and the exciton frequency disorderers. Under the collective limit, the effects of this disorder can be included in Fermi’s golden rule population dynamics without explicit sampling. For the exciton energy disorders, numerical calculations are needed. Our theoretical framework is applicable to interpret exciton–polariton experiments, especially related to the measured apparent lifetime of polaritons.

Chemical dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the proximity to macroscopic failure using local strain populations from dynamic in situ X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks

Predicting the proximity of large-scale dynamic failure is a critical concern in the engineering and geophysical sciences. Here we use evolving contractive, dilatational, and shear strain deformation preceding failure in dynamic X-ray tomography experiments to examine which strain components best predict the proximity to failure. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity to failure using time series of three-dimensional local incremental strain tensor fields acquired in rock deformation experiments under stress conditions of the upper crust. Three-dimensional scans acquired in situ throughout triaxial compression experiments provide a distribution of density contrasts from which we estimate the three-dimensional incremental strain that accumulates between each scan acquisition. Training machine learning models on multiple experiments of six rock types provides suites of feature importance that indicate the predictive power of each feature. Comparing the average importance of groups of features that include information about each strain component quantifies the ability of the contractive, dilatational and shear strain to predict the proximity of macroscopic failure. A total of 24 models of four machine learning algorithms with six rock types indicate that 1) the dilatational strain provides the best predictive power of the strain components, and 2) the intermediate values (25th-75th percentile) of the strain population provide the best predictive power of the statistics of the strain populations. In addition, the success of the predictions of models trained on one rock type and tested on other rock types quantifies the similarities and differences of the precursory strain accumulation process in the six rock types. These similarities suggest the potential existence of a unified theory of brittle rock deformation for a range of rock types.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MISIP: a data standard for the reuse and reproducibility of any stable isotope probing-derived nucleic acid sequence and experiment

DNA/RNA-stable isotope probing (SIP) is a powerful tool to link in situ microbial activity to sequencing data. Every SIP dataset captures distinct information about microbial community metabolism, process rates, and population dynamics, offering valuable insights for a wide range of research questions. Data reuse maximizes the information derived from the labor and resource-intensive SIP approaches. Yet, a review of publicly available SIP sequencing metadata showed that critical information necessary for reproducibility and reuse was often missing. Here, we outline the Minimum Information for any Stable Isotope Probing Sequence (MISIP) according to the Minimum Information for any (x) Sequence (MIxS) framework and include examples of MISIP reporting for common SIP experiments. Our objectives are to expand the capacity of MIxS to accommodate SIP-specific metadata and guide SIP users in metadata collection when planning and reporting an experiment. The MISIP standard requires 5 metadata fields—isotope, isotopolog, isotopolog label, labeling approach, and gradient position—and recommends several fields that represent best practices in acquiring and reporting SIP sequencing data (e.g., gradient density and nucleic acid amount). The standard is intended to be used in concert with other MIxS checklists to comprehensively describe the origin of sequence data, such as for marker genes (MISIP-MIMARKS) or metagenomes (MISIP-MIMS), in combination with metadata required by an environmental extension (e.g., soil). The adoption of the proposed data standard will improve the reuse of any sequence derived from a SIP experiment and, by extension, deepen understanding of in situ biogeochemical processes and microbial ecology.

Simpson, Abigayle↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electronic relaxation dynamics in [Au 25 (SR) 18 ] -1 (R = CH 3 , C 2 H 5 , C 3 H 7 , MPA, PET) thiolate-protected nanoclusters

Here we investigate the excited electron dynamics in [Au 25 (SR) 18 ] -1 (R = CH3, C 2 H 5 , C 3 H 7 , MPA, PET) [MPA = mercaptopropanoic acid, PET = phenylethylthiol] nanoparticles to understand how different ligands affect the excited state dynamics in this system. The population dynamics of the core and higher excited states lying in the energy range 0.00–2.20 eV are studied using a surface hopping method with decoherence correction in a real-time DFT approach. All of the ligated clusters follow a similar trend in decay for the core states (S 1 –S 6 ). The observed time constants are on the picosecond time scale (2–19 ps), which agrees with the experimental time scale, and this study confirms that the time constants observed experimentally could originate from core-to-core transitions and not from core-to-semiring transitions. In the presence of higher excited states, R = H, CH 3 , C 2 H 5 , C 3 H 7 , and PET demonstrate similar relaxations trends whereas R = MPA shows slightly different relaxation of the core states due to a smaller gap between the LUMO+1 and LUMO+2 gap in its electronic structure. The S 1 (HOMO → LUMO) state gives the slowest decay in all ligated clusters, while S 7 has a relatively long decay. Furthermore, separate electron and hole relaxations were performed on the [Au 25 (SCH 3 ) 18 ] -1 nanocluster to understand how independent electron and hole relaxations contribute to the overall relaxation dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic signatures of electronically nonadiabatic coupling in sodium hydride: a rigorous test for the symmetric quasi-classical model applied to realistic, ab initio electronic states in the adiabatic representation

Sodium hydride (NaH) in the gas phase presents a seemingly simple electronic structure making it a potentially tractable system for the detailed investigation of nonadiabatic molecular dynamics from both computational and experimental standpoints. The single vibrational degree of freedom, as well as the strong nonadiabatic coupling that arises from the excited electronic states taking on considerable ionic character, provides a realistic chemical system to test the accuracy of quasi-classical methods to model population dynamics where the results are directly comparable against quantum mechanical benchmarks. Here, using a simulated pump–probe type experiment, this work presents computational predictions of population transfer through the avoided crossings of NaH via symmetric quasi-classical Meyer–Miller (SQC/MM), Ehrenfest, and exact quantum dynamics on realistic, ab initio potential energy surfaces. The main driving force for population transfer arises from the ground vibrational level of the D 1 Σ + adiabatic state that is embedded in the manifold of near-dissociation C 1 Σ + vibrational states. When coupled through a sharply localized first-order derivative coupling most of the population transfers between t = 15 and t = 30 fs depending on the initially excited vibronic wavepacket. While quantum mechanical effects are expected due to the reduced mass of NaH, predictions of the population dynamics from both the SQC/MM and Ehrenfest models perform remarkably well against the quantum dynamics benchmark. Additionally, an analysis of the vibronic structure in the nonadiabatically coupled regime is presented using a variational eigensolver methodology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally (“residents”) were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging “migrants.” This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density

While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Effects of Amazonian Flying Rivers on Frog Biodiversity and Populations in the Atlantic Rainforest

Given the speed at which humans are changing the climate, species with high degrees of endemism may not have time to avoid extinction through adaptation. We investigated through teleconnection analysis the origin of rainfall that determines the phylogenetic diversity of rainforest frogs and the effects of microclimate differences in shaping the morphological traits of isolated populations (which contribute to greater phylogenetic diversity and speciation). We also investigated through teleconnection analysis how deforestation in Amazonia can affect ecosystem services that are fundamental to maintaining the climate of the Atlantic rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Seasonal winds known as flying rivers carry water vapor from Amazonia to the Atlantic Forest, and the breaking of this ecosystem service could lead Atlantic Forest species to population decline and extinction in the short term. Our results suggest that the selection of morphological traits that shape Atlantic Forest frog diversity and their population dynamics are influenced by the Amazonian flying rivers. Our results also suggest that the increases of temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean due to global warming and in the Amazon forest due to deforestation are already breaking this cycle and threaten the biodiversity of the Atlantic Forest hotspot.

anurans↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distribution of centrality measures on undirected random networks via the cavity method

The Katz centrality of a node in a complex network is a measure of the node’s importance as far as the flow of information across the network is concerned. For ensembles of locally tree-like undirected random graphs, this observable is a random variable. Its full probability distribution is of interest but difficult to handle analytically because of its “global” character and its definition in terms of a matrix inverse. Leveraging a fast Gaussian Belief Propagation-Cavity algorithm to solve linear systems on tree-like structures, we show that i) the Katz centrality of a single instance can be computed recursively in a very fast way, and ii) the probability P ( K ) that a random node in the ensemble of undirected random graphs has centrality K satisfies a set of recursive distributional equations, which can be analytically characterized and efficiently solved using a population dynamics algorithm. We test our solution on ensembles of Erdős-Rényi and Scale Free networks in the locally tree-like regime, with excellent agreement. The analytical distribution of centrality for the configuration model conditioned on the degree of each node can be employed as a benchmark to identify nodes of empirical networks with over- and underexpressed centrality relative to a null baseline. We also provide an approximate formula based on a rank- 1 projection that works well if the network is not too sparse, and we argue that an extension of our method could be efficiently extended to tackle analytical distributions of other centrality measures such as PageRank for directed networks in a transparent and user-friendly way.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes on neonate survival in an invasive large mammal

Abstract Understanding factors influencing survival of neonates for wild species is important for successful management, particularly for determining drivers of population dynamics. Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) are invasive and populations are rapidly increasing in part due to high reproductive capacity. Survival of adults is generally high, however, survival of piglets, and particularly neonates, is largely unknown. We located neonates at the natal nest and quantified survival in relation to individual and maternal biological attributes, and environmental variables. During 2017–2020, we captured 50 neonates from 13 litters and documented 28 mortalities (56%) over six weeks. Survival was positively influenced by pelage coloration, likely as a form of camouflage from predators. Male neonates had higher survival. They were born larger than females, which could be beneficial for thermoregulation and competition for milk. Neonates born to larger sows had lower survival. Sow size was positively correlated with litter size, and this finding may reflect the increased nutritional demands of sustaining large litters, or difficulties in defending more neonates against predators. Neonates born in warmer months had higher survival than those born in cooler months. Neonates are inefficient thermoregulators, thus being born in warmer months could be beneficial for maintaining homeostasis as well as access to more food resources. These are the largest and most complete data for neonate wild pig survival and will inform population models for the development of management strategies to reduce negative impacts of this destructive invasive species on native ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrafast hole relaxation dynamics in quantum dots revealed by two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy

Elucidating the population dynamics of correlated electron-hole pairs (bound excitons) in semiconducting quantum dots (QDs) is key for developing our fundamental understanding of nanoscale photophysics as well as for the optimal design of devices, such as lasers. For decades, it was assumed that holes did not contribute to band edge bleach signals in QDs. Here, we employ two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy to monitor electron and hole dynamics in both CdSe and CdSe/CdS/ZnS QDs to probe electron and hole dynamics. Based on a combination of time and frequency resolution, we observe a previously unresolved bleaching signal in CdSe QDs on timescales faster than 30 fs due to hole cooling. Atomistic semiempirical pseudopotential calculations are used to rationalize the order of magnitude difference in the observed hole dynamics in CdSe and CdSe/CdS/ZnS QDs. This picture advances our understanding of QD excitonics past the prevailing continuum effective mass theories generally used to describe QD electronic structure and dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics and drivers of land use and land cover changes in Bangladesh

Abstract Bangladesh has undergone dramatic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) in recent years, but no quantitative analysis of LULCC drivers at the national scale exists so far. Here, we quantified the drivers of major LULCC in combination with biophysical and socioeconomic observations at the sub-district level. We used Landsat satellite data to interpret LULCC from 2000 to 2010 and employed a Global Surface Water Dataset to account for the influences of water seasonality. The results suggest that major LULCC in Bangladesh occur between agricultural land and waterbodies and between forest and shrubland. Exclusion of seasonal waterbodies can improve the accuracy of our LULCC results and driver analysis. Although the gross gain and loss of agricultural land are large on the local scale, the net change (gross gain minus gross loss) at a country scale is almost negligible. Climate dynamics and extreme events and changes in urban and rural households were driving the changes from forest to shrubland in the southeast region. The conversion from agricultural land to standing waterbodies in the southwest region was mainly driven by urban household dynamics, population growth, distance to cities and major roads, and precipitation dynamics. This study, which is the first effort accounting for water seasonality and quantifying biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of LULCC at the national scale, provides a perspective on overall LULCC and underlying drivers over a decadal time scale and national spatial scale and can serve as a scientific basis for developing land policies in Bangladesh.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An accurate, non-empirical method for incorporating decoherence into Ehrenfest dynamics

In mixed quantum-classical nonadiabatic molecular dynamics methods, the anchoring of the electronic wave function to a single nuclear geometry results in both quantitative and qualitative errors in the dynamics. In the context of both Ehrenfest and trajectory surface hopping methods, methods for incorporating decoherence are widely used to eliminate these errors. However, the accuracy of these methods often depends strongly on the parameterization of the decoherence time and/or other related quantities. Here, we present a refinement of the recently introduced collapse to a block (TAB) scheme for incorporating decoherence into Ehrenfest dynamics. The proposed approach incorporates an approximation to the history of the population dynamics and treats the coherence decay as Gaussian, rather than exponential. This method uses parameters that can be obtained from first principles, rather than empirical fitting. Application to one-dimensional models indicates excellent agreement with numerically exact simulations. We also introduce a second refinement to the TAB method: a robust linear least-squares algorithm for determining collapse probabilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nutrient availability and senescence spatially structure the dynamics of a foundation species

Significance Landscapes are spatially heterogeneous, and the measurement of spatial pattern is dependent upon observation scale. Understanding plant populations requires assessing their extrinsic interactions with the environment as well as intrinsic biological processes and has been difficult because of the inability to track both plant abundance and health on appropriate scales. We introduce remote sensing observations that assess the abundance and health of giant kelp, an important ecosystem-structuring species, over regional and local scales. We find that both extrinsic nutrient availability and intrinsic senescence processes regulate population dynamics but on regional and local scales, respectively. This suggests that future satellite missions will be able to assess plant abundance and health and their interactions with the environment on local to global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗