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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1980

'Chain pooling' model selection for two-level fixed effects factorial experiments

As many as three iterated statistical model deletion procedures are considered for an experiment. Population model coefficients were chosen to simulate a saturated factorial experiment having an unfavorable distribution of parameter values. Using random number studies, three model selection strategies were developed, namely, (1) a strategy to be used in anticipation of large coefficients of variation (neighborhood of 65 percent), (2) strategy to be used in anticipation of small coefficients of variation (4 percent or less), and (3) a security regret strategy to be used in the absence of such prior knowledge.

Holms, A. G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flux Comparison of Master-8 And Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

In this paper, the modelled debris fluxes by ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 are compared. At first, the basic modelling approaches for both models are presented to explain the fundamentally different model philosophies and help the reader to comprehend and interpret the obtained results. Then, the flux results of both models for three different orbits are presented and analysed. They are discussed and set into perspective. A conclusion is drawn at the end of the paper, highlighting the ongoing cooperation of both agencies responsible for their models.

Andre Horstmann↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pushing the Limits of Aquatic Remote Sensing: Synthetic Data and Deep Learning for Fast Inverse Emulation of A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer Model

The inversion of electromagnetic information to physical and biological properties of the water column is a notoriously difficult problem, yet fundamental to our ability of understanding aquatic processes on large time and space scales. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This presentation will discuss research integrating advanced biological and radiative modeling, high-end computation, and machine learning to develop a portable global processor for simultaneous retrieval of atmosphere and water optics for diverse aquatic systems from the open and coastal ocean to optically extreme inland waters and harmful algal blooms. We will discuss some of the basic concepts behind the forward modeling approach including DEAP, the novel Distributed Equivalent Algal Populations model, for developing large spectral libraries of aquatic particle optics to aid in our ability to distinguish phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) and inorganic material, as well as other factors which enable comprehensive modeling from the benthos to top-of-atmosphere (TOA). This information is being used to understand how we can leverage next-generation deep learning methods for maximum information retrieval and rapid image processing, while also providing capabilities to identify minimum sensor spectral requirements necessary for certain aquatic applications. Further, I will touch on how we envision this research to enable the aquatic community for science discovery and how we are moving closer towards the capability for high-fidelity global analysis of aquatic ecosystems.

Jeremy Alan Kravitz↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling the Space Debris Environment with MASTER-2009 and ORDEM2010

Spacecraft analysis using ORDEM2010 uses a high-fidelity population model to compute risk to on-orbit assets. The ORDEM2010 GUI allows visualization of spacecraft flux in 2-D and 1-D. The population was produced using a Bayesian statistical approach with measured and modeled environment data. Validation of sizes < 1mm were performed using Shuttle window and radiator impact measurements. Validation of sizes > 1mm is on-going.

Flegel, S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The far-ultraviolet spectra of early-type galaxies

New and revised ultraviolet energy distributions ar presented based on 97 IUE spectra of 31 early-type galaxies and the bulge of M31. Based on optical spectra and morphology, the sample galaxies are divided into star-forming galaxies, active galaxies, and quiescent galaxies. A well-defined nonlinear relationship between (1550-V) color and Mg2 for the 24 quiescent galaxies is obtained. The ultraviolet spectra of these galaxies can be modeled as a sum of two components: a normal, cool stellar population of main-sequence and giant branch stars that is redder at high Mg2, plus a very blue population having a steeply rising UV flux below 2000 A that increases in strength with metallicity. The UV spectra of star-forming galaxies are significantly flatter than the very blue component of quiescent galxies and are consistent with aging bursts of star formation. Two sample population models are explored for the blue stellar component of quiescent galaxies: postasymptotic giant branch stars and young stars from continuing star formation.

Burstein, David↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Outer Solar System Origins Survey: Design and First-Quarter Discoveries - I.

We report the discovery, tracking, and detection circumstances for 85 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) from the first 42 square degrees of the Outer Solar System Origins Survey. This ongoing r-band solar system survey uses the 0.9 square degree field of view MegaPrime camera on the 3.6 meter Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. Our orbital elements for these TNOs are precise to a fractional semimajor axis uncertainty of less than 0.1 percent. We achieve this precision in just two oppositions, as compared to the normal three to five oppositions, via a dense observing cadence and innovative astrometric technique. These discoveries are free of ephemeris bias, a first for large trans-Neptunian surveys. We also provide the necessary information to enable models of TNO orbital distributions to be tested against our TNO sample. We confirm the existence of a cold "kernel" of objects within the main cold classical Kuiper Belt and infer the existence of an extension of the "stirred" cold classical Kuiper Belt to at least several au beyond the 2:1 mean motion resonance with Neptune. We find that the population model of Petit et al. remains a plausible representation of the Kuiper Belt. The full survey, to be completed in 2017, will provide an exquisitely characterized sample of important resonant TNO populations, ideal for testing models of giant planet migration during the early history of the solar system.

Bannister, Michele T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗
NASA NTRS1983

Star formation in blue galaxies. I - Ultraviolet, optical, and infrared observations of NGC 4214 and NGC 4670

NGC 4214 and NGC 4760 have been observed between 1150 A and 1950 A with the IUE satellite, and new infrared and optical broad-band photometry have been obtained. The spectra of both galaxies are dominated by O stars, and, in the spectrum of NGC 4214, the C IV 1550 A line exhibits a P Cygni profile indicative of hot stars with large mass-loss rates. Although the optical spectra of both galaxies are dominated by strong narrow emission lines, no strong emission lines are seen in the UV (the observed Ly-alpha flux is dominated by geocoronal emission). Both galaxies contain giant H II region complexes in which the energy (in particular, the H-beta luminosity and the ultraviolet continuum) is provided by several hundred O stars. The comparison of the observed UVOIR energy distributions with evolutionary population models indicates that the regions observed consist of young 'bursts' of star formation superposed on an underlying old population. The initial mass function for this epoch of star formation is constrained to be similar in slope to or flatter than the Salpeter function.

Geller, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Liou, Jer-chyi↗
NASA NTRS2012

HD 172555: Detection of 63 micrometers [OI] Emission in a Debris Disc

Context. HD 172555 is a young A7 star belonging to the Beta Pictoris Moving Group that harbours a debris disc. The Spitzer IRS spectrum of the source showed mid-IR features such as silicates and glassy silica species, indicating the presence of a warm dust component with small grains, which places HD 172555 among the small group of debris discs with such properties. The IRS spectrum also shows a possible emission of SiO gas. Aims. We aim to study the dust distribution in the circumstellar disc of HD 172555 and to asses the presence of gas in the debris disc. Methods. As part of the GASPS Open Time Key Programme, we obtained Herschel-PACS photometric and spectroscopic observations of the source. We analysed PACS observations of HD 172555 and modelled the Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) with a modified blackbody and the gas emission with a two-level population model with no collisional de-excitation. Results. We report for the first time the detection of [OI] atomic gas emission at 63.18 micrometers in the HD 172555 circumstellar disc.We detect excesses due to circumstellar dust toward HD 172555 in the three photometric bands of PACS (70, 100, and 160 m). We derive a large dust particle mass of (4.8 plus-minus 0.6)x10(exp -4) Mass compared to Earth and an atomic oxygen mass of 2.5x10(exp -2)R(exp 2) Mass compared to Earth, where R in AU is the separation between the star and the inner disc. Thus, most of the detected mass of the disc is in the gaseous phase.

Riviere-Marichalar, P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Krisko, Paula H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Evidence for an old Galactic bulge from RR Lyrae stars in Baade's window - Implications for the formation of the Galaxy and the age of the universe

Recent abundance measurements of RR Lyrae variables in the Baade's window field of the Galactic nuclear bulge are examined, and the observed metallicity distributions of the RR Lyraes in different Galactic radial zones are compared with those predicted for the HB population models. It is shown that the observed systematic variation with Galactocentric distance is only explained if the age of the stellar population increases, in the mean, with decreasing R(G). Thus, the oldest stellar population, the RR Lyraes in the Galactic nuclear bulge, is indeed older than that in the halo.

Lee, Young-Wook↗
NASA NTRS2014

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publically released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs, particularly in LEO. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris and can have enough momentum to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. In this paper, we present and detail the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations from both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 in LEO. We review population categories: particle sources for MASTER-2009, particle densities for ORDEM 3.0. We describe data sources and their uses, and supporting models. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Krisko, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Contribution of z < or Approx. 6 Sources to the Spatial Coherence in the Unresolved Cosmic Near-Infrared and X-Ray Backgrounds

A spatial clustering signal has been established in Spitzer/IRAC measurements of the unresolved cosmic near-infrared background (CIB) out to large angular scales, approx. 1deg. This CIB signal, while significantly exceeding the contribution from the remaining known galaxies, was further found to be coherent at a highly statistically significant level with the unresolved soft cosmic X-ray background (CXB). This measurement probes the unresolved CXB to very faint source levels using deep near-IR source subtraction.We study contributions from extragalactic populations at low to intermediate redshifts to the measured positive cross-power signal of the CIB fluctuations with the CXB. We model the X-ray emission from active galactic nuclei (AGNs), normal galaxies, and hot gas residing in virialized structures, calculating their CXB contribution including their spatial coherence with all infrared emitting counterparts. We use a halo model framework to calculate the auto and cross-power spectra of the unresolved fluctuations based on the latest constraints of the halo occupation distribution and the biasing of AGNs, galaxies, and diffuse emission. At small angular scales (1), the 4.5microns versus 0.5-2 keV coherence can be explained by shot noise from galaxies and AGNs. However, at large angular scales (approx.10), we find that the net contribution from the modeled populations is only able to account for approx. 3% of the measured CIB×CXB cross-power. The discrepancy suggests that the CIB×CXB signal originates from the same unknown source population producing the CIB clustering signal out to approx. 1deg.

unresolved cosmic near infrared background (CIB)↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The application of sensitivity analysis to models of large scale physiological systems

A survey of the literature of sensitivity analysis as it applies to biological systems is reported as well as a brief development of sensitivity theory. A simple population model and a more complex thermoregulatory model illustrate the investigatory techniques and interpretation of parameter sensitivity analysis. The role of sensitivity analysis in validating and verifying models, and in identifying relative parameter influence in estimating errors in model behavior due to uncertainty in input data is presented. This analysis is valuable to the simulationist and the experimentalist in allocating resources for data collection. A method for reducing highly complex, nonlinear models to simple linear algebraic models that could be useful for making rapid, first order calculations of system behavior is presented.

Leonard, J. I.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection

The NANOGrav Collaboration reported strong Bayesian evidence for a common-spectrum stochastic process in its12.5 yr pulsar timing array data set, with median characteristic strain amplitude at periods of a year of A(yr) = 1.92(+0.75,-0.55) x 10^(-15). However, evidence for the quadrupolar Hellings & Downs interpulsar correlations, which are characteristic of gravitational-wave signals, was not yet significant. We emulate and extend the NANOGrav data set, injecting a wide range of stochastic gravitational-wave background(GWB)signals that encompass a variety of amplitudes and spectral shapes, and quantify three key milestones.(I)Given the amplitude measured in the 12.5 yr analysis and assuming this signal is a GWB, we expect to accumulate robust evidence of an interpulsar-correlated GWB signal with 15–17 yr of data, i.e., an additional 2–5 yr from the 12.5 yr data set.(II)At the initial detection, we expect a fractional uncertainty of 40% on the power-law strain spectrum slope, which is sufficient to distinguish a GWB of supermassive black hole binary origin from some models predicting more exotic origins.(III)Similarly, the measured GWB amplitude will have an uncertainty of 44% upon initial detection, allowing us to arbitrate between some population models of supermassive black hole binaries. In addition, power-law models are distinguishable from those having low-frequency spectral turnovers once 20 yr of data are reached. Even though our study is based on the NANOGrav data, we also derive relations that allow for a generalization to other pulsar timing array data sets. Most notably, by combining the data of individual arrays into the International Pulsar Timing Array, all of these milestones can be reached significantly earlier.

Nihan S. Pol↗