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Rapid development of population balance models using an automated crystallization system integrated with the user-friendly modeling tool CrySiV
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LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty
Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.
At Risk Population Estimates for Belarus, Poland and Slovakia with Machine Learning
High-resolution gridded population modeling is crucial for various applications, including disaster response planning, infectious disease spread modeling, climate change impact estimation, policy development, and more. Multiple gridded population datasets have been developed, each tailored to meet specific objectives. Among them, LandScan Global dataset is designed to represent ambient and unwarned population distributions. However, this dataset relies on a statistical approach that requires manual adjustments, making it time consuming and labour intensive. Existing machine learning (ML) methods often train and test at different spatial resolutions, potentially leading to inflated results, and they rely on Census population totals for disaggregation. To address these limitations, in this study we developed population estimates using ML models trained and tested at a consistent 30 arc-second resolution (≈1 square kilometer), specifically using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost. These models were trained on 2020 datum to predict for 2021 for three countries: Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia. Our findings show that both RF (MAE varies from 5.75 to 13.25) and XGBoost (MAE varies from 8.15 to 23.44) model performance is close to LandScan Global estimates. Furthermore, neither of the models performed the best across all grid cells: the RF model was more effective in areas with lower populations, while XGBoost excelled in more densely populated regions. The proposed approach can be used for countries where the Census data is not available.
Overcoming the Challenges to Enhancing Experimental Plant Biology With Computational Modeling
The study of complex biological systems necessitates computational modeling approaches that are currently underutilized in plant biology. Many plant biologists have trouble identifying or adopting modeling methods to their research, particularly mechanistic mathematical modeling. Here we address challenges that limit the use of computational modeling methods, particularly mechanistic mathematical modeling. We divide computational modeling techniques into either pattern models (e.g., bioinformatics, machine learning, or morphology) or mechanistic mathematical models (e.g., biochemical reactions, biophysics, or population models), which both contribute to plant biology research at different scales to answer different research questions. We present arguments and recommendations for the increased adoption of modeling by plant biologists interested in incorporating more modeling into their research programs. As some researchers find math and quantitative methods to be an obstacle to modeling, we provide suggestions for easy-to-use tools for non-specialists and for collaboration with specialists. This may especially be the case for mechanistic mathematical modeling, and we spend some extra time discussing this. Through a more thorough appreciation and awareness of the power of different kinds of modeling in plant biology, we hope to facilitate interdisciplinary, transformative research.
Learning to Count Grave Sites for Cemetery Observation Models With Satellite Imagery
Understanding how people occupy open spaces is important for research in support of population modeling, policy, national security, emergency response, and sustainability. For the past decade, there has been an increase in research toward capturing and reporting population dynamics and patterns of life at the building level and in some open public spaces such as cemeteries and parks. This is done through observation models developed from local sociocultural information acquired at various spatiotemporal scales to inform night, day, and episodic population occupancy estimates (people/1000 sq ft). Sociocultural information for cemeteries and parks is scarcely available and often collected manually. The process is not only marred by inconsistencies but is laborious and time consuming. In this study, we leverage convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and satellite imagery to derive grave site counts as proxy variables to support scalable and accurate sociocultural data required in a population observation model. Through a hybrid workflow (weak localization plus regression model), we characterize a large scale automation process to counting of grave sites. We evaluate and demonstrate the efficacy of proposed workflow using out-of-data set large satellite imagery and establish its broader impact on cemetery observation models.
Growth and survival rates of dispersing free embryos and settled larvae of pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the Missouri River, Montana and North Dakota
We released nearly 1.0 million 1-day post-hatch (dph) and 5-dph pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) free embryos in the Missouri River on 1 July 2019 and sequentially captured survivors at multiple sites through a 240-km river reach to quantify daily growth and survival rates during the early life stages. Genetic analysis was used to assign captured fish to released family lots and known ages. Growth rate was similar (0.74–0.75 mm day –1 ) between the 1- and 5-dph age groups during the 3–4-day dispersal period when water temperature averaged 16.8 °C. Daily survival rate was 0.64 during 1–4 dph for the original 1-dph age group and 0.80 during 5–7 dph for the original 5-dph age group. Total survival during free embryo dispersal (hatch to 9 dph) was estimated as 0.0437. The transition from dispersing as free embryos to settling as benthic larvae was verified for fish originally released as 5 dph. Growth of settled larvae was quantified with a Gompertz model through 75 dph (9 September; 112 mm) when water temperature was 18.8–21.0 °C in the rearing areas. Settled larvae had an estimated daily survival rate of 0.96, and estimated total survival during 9–75 dph was 0.0714. This study provides the first empirical survival estimates for pallid sturgeon early life stages in natural settings and is one of few studies reporting similar information for other sturgeon species. Applications of this work extend to pallid sturgeon restoration programs where population models are being developed to predict recruitment potential and population responses to river management alternatives.
Dynamic signatures of electronically nonadiabatic coupling in sodium hydride: a rigorous test for the symmetric quasi-classical model applied to realistic, ab initio electronic states in the adiabatic representation
Sodium hydride (NaH) in the gas phase presents a seemingly simple electronic structure making it a potentially tractable system for the detailed investigation of nonadiabatic molecular dynamics from both computational and experimental standpoints. The single vibrational degree of freedom, as well as the strong nonadiabatic coupling that arises from the excited electronic states taking on considerable ionic character, provides a realistic chemical system to test the accuracy of quasi-classical methods to model population dynamics where the results are directly comparable against quantum mechanical benchmarks. Here, using a simulated pump–probe type experiment, this work presents computational predictions of population transfer through the avoided crossings of NaH via symmetric quasi-classical Meyer–Miller (SQC/MM), Ehrenfest, and exact quantum dynamics on realistic, ab initio potential energy surfaces. The main driving force for population transfer arises from the ground vibrational level of the D 1 Σ + adiabatic state that is embedded in the manifold of near-dissociation C 1 Σ + vibrational states. When coupled through a sharply localized first-order derivative coupling most of the population transfers between t = 15 and t = 30 fs depending on the initially excited vibronic wavepacket. While quantum mechanical effects are expected due to the reduced mass of NaH, predictions of the population dynamics from both the SQC/MM and Ehrenfest models perform remarkably well against the quantum dynamics benchmark. Additionally, an analysis of the vibronic structure in the nonadiabatically coupled regime is presented using a variational eigensolver methodology.
The Ultra-High-Energy Source MGRO J1908+06
The TeV gamma-ray source MGRO J1908+06 is one of the highest-energy sources known, with observed emission by the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory extending well past 100 TeV. The source exhibits both energy-dependent morphology and a spatially-dependent spectral index. The emission is likely to be dominantly leptonic, and associated with the radio-quiet PSR J1907+0602. However, one-population models do not describe the data well; a second particle population is needed to explain the shape of the spectral energy distribution at the highest energies. This component can be well-described by either leptonic or hadronic hypotheses. We discuss this feature and implications for detection by multi-wavelength and multi-messenger experiments.
Stability of multi-population traffic flows
Traffic waves, known also as stop-and-go waves or phantom jams, appear naturally as traffic instabilities, also in confined environments as a ring-road. A multi-population traffic is studied on a ring-road, comprised of drivers with stable and unstable behavior. There exists a critical penetration rate of stable vehicles above which the system is stable, and under which the system is unstable. In the latter case, stop-and-go waves appear, provided enough cars are on the road. The critical penetration rate is explicitly computable, and, in reasonable situations, a small minority of aggressive drivers is enough to destabilize an otherwise very stable flow. This is a source of instability that a single population model would not be able to explain. Also, the multi-population system can be stable below the critical penetration rate if the number of cars is sufficiently small. Instability emerges as the number of cars increases, even if the traffic density remains the same (i.e., number of cars and road size increase similarly). This shows that small experiments could lead to deducing imprecise stability conditions.
Exploring the contamination of the DES-Y1 cluster sample with SPT-SZ selected clusters
ABSTRACT We perform a cross validation of the cluster catalogue selected by the red-sequence Matched-filter Probabilistic Percolation algorithm (redMaPPer) in Dark Energy Survey year 1 (DES-Y1) data by matching it with the Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect (SZE) selected cluster catalogue from the South Pole Telescope SPT-SZ survey. Of the 1005 redMaPPer selected clusters with measured richness $\hat{\lambda }\gt 40$ in the joint footprint, 207 are confirmed by SPT-SZ. Using the mass information from the SZE signal, we calibrate the richness–mass relation using a Bayesian cluster population model. We find a mass trend λ ∝ MB consistent with a linear relation (B ∼ 1), no significant redshift evolution and an intrinsic scatter in richness of σλ = 0.22 ± 0.06. By considering two error models, we explore the impact of projection effects on the richness–mass modelling, confirming that such effects are not detectable at the current level of systematic uncertainties. At low richness SPT-SZ confirms fewer redMaPPer clusters than expected. We interpret this richness dependent deficit in confirmed systems as due to the increased presence at low richness of low-mass objects not correctly accounted for by our richness-mass scatter model, which we call contaminants. At a richness $\hat{\lambda }=40$, this population makes up ${\gt}12{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (97.5 percentile) of the total population. Extrapolating this to a measured richness $\hat{\lambda }=20$ yields ${\gt}22{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ (97.5 percentile). With these contamination fractions, the predicted redMaPPer number counts in different plausible cosmologies are compatible with the measured abundance. The presence of such a population is also a plausible explanation for the different mass trends (B ∼ 0.75) obtained from mass calibration using purely optically selected clusters. The mean mass from stacked weak lensing (WL) measurements suggests that these low-mass contaminants are galaxy groups with masses ∼3–5 × 1013 M⊙ which are beyond the sensitivity of current SZE and X-ray surveys but a natural target for SPT-3G and eROSITA.
Investigating the mixing between two black hole populations in LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA GWTC-3
Here, we introduce a population model to analyze the mixing between hypothesised power-law and ~ 35M ⊙ Gaussian bump black hole populations in the latest gravitational wave catalog, GWTC 3, estimating their co-location and separation. We find a relatively low level of mixing, $3.1^{+5.0}_{-3.1}$%, between the power-law and Gaussian populations, compared to the percentage of mergers containing two Gaussian bump black holes, $5.0^{+3.2}_{-1.7}$%. Our analysis indicates that black holes within the Gaussian bump are generally separate from the power-law population, with only a minor fraction engaging in mixing and contributing to the $\mathcal{M}$ ~ 14M ⊙ peak in the chirp mass. This leads us to identify a distinct population of Binary Gaussian Black Holes (BGBHs) that arise from mergers within the Gaussian bump. We suggest that current theories for the formation of the massive 35M ⊙ Gaussian bump population may need to reevaluate the underlying mechanisms that drive the preference for BGBHs.
Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments
Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.
Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems
Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.
Clues on the history of early-type galaxies from SDSS spectra and GALEX photometry
ABSTRACT Stellar population studies of early-type galaxies (ETGs) based on their optical stellar continuum suggest that these are quiescent systems. However, emission lines and ultraviolet photometry reveal a diverse population. We use a new version of the starlight spectral synthesis code and state-of-the-art stellar population models to simultaneously fit Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra and Galaxy Evolution Explorer photometry for a sample of 3453 galaxies at z < 0.1 with near ultraviolet (NUV) − r > 5 that are classified as elliptical by Galaxy Zoo. We reproduce far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes for 80 per cent of UV upturn galaxies selected using criteria from the literature, suggesting that additional stellar population ingredients such as binaries and extreme horizontal branch stars may have a limited contribution to the UV upturn. The addition of ultraviolet data leads to a broadening of the distributions of mean stellar ages, metallicities, and attenuation. Stellar populations younger than $1\,$ Gyr are required to reproduce the ultraviolet emission in 17 per cent of our sample. These systems represent 43 per cent of the sample at 5 < NUV − r < 5.5 and span the same stellar mass range as other ETGs in our sample. ETGs with young stellar components have larger H α equivalent widths (WH α) and larger dust attenuation. Emission line ratios and WH α indicate that the ionizing source in these systems is a mixture of young and old stellar populations. Their young stellar populations are metal-poor, especially for high-mass galaxies, indicating recent star formation associated with rejuvenation events triggered by external processes, such as minor mergers.
Measuring M31 globular cluster ages and metallicities using both photometry and spectroscopy
ABSTRACT The ages and metallicities of globular clusters play an important role not just in testing models for their formation and evolution but also in understanding the assembly history of their host galaxies. Here, we use a combination of imaging and spectroscopy to measure the ages and metallicities of globular clusters in M31, the closest massive galaxy to our own. We use the strength of the near-infrared calcium triplet spectral feature to provide a relatively age-insensitive prior on the metallicity when fitting stellar population models to the observed photometry. While the age–extinction degeneracy is an issue for globular clusters projected on to the disc of M31, we find generally old ages for globular clusters in the halo of M31 and in its satellite galaxy NGC 205 in line with previous studies. We measure ages for a number of outer halo globular clusters for the first time, finding that globular clusters associated with halo substructure extend to younger ages and higher metallicities than those associated with the smooth halo. This is in line with the expectation that the smooth halo was accreted earlier than the substructured halo.
iMaNGA: mock MaNGA galaxies based on IllustrisTNG and MaStar SSPs – I. Construction and analysis of the mock data cubes
ABSTRACT Galaxy formation and evolution simulations are essential tools to probe poorly known astrophysics processes, but particular care is needed to compare simulations with galaxy observations, as observed data need to be modelled as well. We present a method to generate mock galaxies from the hydro-dynamical IllustrisTNG simulations which are suited to compare with integral field spectroscopic observation of galaxies from the SDSS-IV/Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. First, we include the same instrumental effects and procedures as adopted in the acquisition and analysis of real data. Furthermore, we generate the galaxy spectra from the simulations using new stellar population models based on the MaNGA stellar library (MaStar). In this way, our mock data cubes have the same spatial sampling, cover the same wavelength range (3600–10 300 Å), and share the same spectral resolution (R ≈ 1800) and flux calibration of real MaNGA galaxy spectra. In this first paper, we demonstrate the method over an early- and a late-type simulated galaxy from TNG50. We analyse the correspondent mock MaNGA-like data cubes with the same full spectral fitting code, firefly, which was used for the observed spectra. We find that the intrinsic and recovered age and metallicity gradients are consistent within 1σ, with residuals over all tassels consistent with 0 at the 68 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level. We also perform the challenging test at comparing intrinsic and recovered star formation histories, finding a close resemblance between input and output. In follow-up papers, we will present a full simulated MaNGA-like catalogue (≈10 000 galaxies) with a comprehensive comparison of TNG50 simulations to MaNGA observational results.
SDSS-IV MaStar: theoretical atmospheric parameters for the MaNGA stellar library
ABSTRACT We calculate the fundamental stellar parameters effective temperature, surface gravity, and iron abundance – Teff, log g, [Fe/H] – for the final release of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at APO (MaNGA) Stellar Library (MaStar), containing 59 266 per-visit-spectra for 24 290 unique stars at intermediate resolution (R ∼ 1800) and high S/N (median = 96). We fit theoretical spectra from model atmospheres by both MARCS and BOSZ-ATLAS9 to the observed MaStar spectra, using the full spectral fitting code pPXF. We further employ a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to map the parameter space and obtain uncertainties. Originally in this paper, we cross match MaStar observations with Gaia photometry, which enable us to set reliable priors and identify outliers according to stellar evolution. In parallel to the parameter determination, we calculate corresponding stellar population models to test the reliability of the parameters for each stellar evolutionary phase. We further assess our procedure by determining parameters for standard stars such as the Sun and Vega and by comparing our parameters with those determined in the literature from high-resolution spectroscopy (APOGEE and SEGUE) and from lower resolution matching template (LAMOST). The comparisons, considering the different methodologies and S/N of the literature surveys, are favourable in all cases. Our final parameter catalogue for MaStar cover the following ranges: 2592 ≤ Teff ≤ 32 983 K; −0.7 ≤ log g ≤ 5.4 dex; −2.9 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ 1.0 dex and will be available with the last SDSS-IV Data Release, in 2021 December.