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Interseismic deformation for normal fault earthquakes

Comparison between the coseismic vertical deformation associated with normal fault earthquakes and permanent deformation indicated by geologic structure indicates that large deformation must occur during the period between earthquakes. When sufficient geodetic and geologic information is available it is possible to estimate the spatial character of this interseismic deformation. A case in point is the 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho earthquake. This normal fault earthquake produced roughly 5 times as much basin subsidence as it did uplift of the adjacent mountain ranges. In contrast, geophysical and geological observations show that the basin is roughly as deep as the bounding range is high. A similar normal fault event in the Basin and Range, the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake, was also accompanied by substantially larger subsidence than uplift. In this case, postseismic geodetic measurements show broad regional uplift with a spatial pattern which is roughly consistent with that proposed for the Borah Peak event. Modeling suggests that postseismic viscoelastic relaxation and strain accumulation in an elastic lithosphere overlying a viscoelastic asthenosphere are possible physical mechanisms to generate interseismic uplift. These mechanisms may be the contemporary expression of those processes responsible for the high elevation of the Basin and Range Province.

Reilinger, Robert↗

Transient Creep of a Composite Lower Crust: Constitutive Theory - 1

A composite model is proposed to describe the time-dependent response of the Earth's lower crust. The motivation for such it model is twofold: First, new observations of widespread postseismic deformation indicate that the deep continental crust responds viscoelastically, having both long-and short-term decay times. Second, by any number of observationally based rationales, the lower crust is compositionally and structurally heterogeneous over many length scales. For heterogeneities that have much smaller characteristic lengths than the minimum deformation wavelength of interest, the aggregate rheology can be described by composite media theory. For wavelengths of the order of the thickness of the lower crust (approx. = 25-40 km) and larger, composite theory may be applied to heterogeneities that are smaller than about several hundred meters, or equivalent to the vertical extent of a thick lower crustal mylonitic shear zone. The composite media theory developed here is constructed using both Eshelhy-Mori-Tanaka theory for aligned generalized spheroidal inclusions and a generalized self-consistent method. The inclusions and matrix are considered to be Maxwellian viscoelastic: a rheology that is consistent with past homogeneous models of postseismic stress relaxation. The composite theory presented here introduces a transient response to a suddenly imposed stress field which does not appear in homogeneous Maxwell models. Analytic expressions for the amplitude and duration of the transient and for the effective long-and short-term viscosities of the composite are given which describe the sensitivity to inclusion concentration (phi), to shape, and to ratio of inclusion-to-matrix viscosity (R).

Ivins, Erik R.↗

Kinematics of the New Zealand Plate Boundary: Relative Motion by GPS Across Networks of 1000 km and 50 km Spacing

From the 1995-97 data we are able to estimate interseismic velocities - the original aim of the project - though corrections must first be made for the coseismic effects of the Cass earthquake and postseismic effects of the Arthur's Pass event. In the following, we present four sets of results: (1) Interseismic velocities, (2) Arthur's Pass earthquake - coseismic, (3) Cass earthquake, and (4) Arthur's Pass earthquake postseismic. Work on all these fronts is still incomplete, but is being actively continued with funding from the NZ Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST).

Scholz, Chris↗

Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

Reilinger, Robert↗

Mechanism of underthrusting in southwest Japan: A model of convergent plate interactions

An elastic rebound mechanism consistent with underthrusting at the time of the magnitude 8.2 Nankaido earthquake of 21 December, 1946 accounts for a reversal in sense between seismic and preseismic changes in elevation throughout a large portion of southwest Japan. It is shown that the seismic movements during the earthquake were generated by slip on a complex thrust fault that is inferred to intersect the surface near the base of the continental slope. The preseismic deformation is explained by strain accumulation equivalent to a virtual dislocation with the same orientation as the fault surface but a sense opposite to that of the real dislocation that occurred at the time of the earthquake. Adjustments by slip along the fault surface and extensions of that surface can account for postseismic movements.

Fitch, T. J.↗

The behavior of a convergent plate boundary - Crustal deformation in the South Kanto district, Japan

The northwesternmost part of the Sagami trough, a part of the Philippine Sea-Eurasian plate boundary, was ruptured during the great South Kanto earthquake in 1923. Very extensive and frequent geodetic measurements of crustal deformation have been made in the South Kanto district since the 1890's, and these constitute the most complete data set on crustal movements in the world. These data were reanalyzed and interpreted and according to our interpretation indicate the following sequence of events. The coseismic movements were due to oblique thrust and right lateral slip of about 8 m on a fault outcropping at the base of the Sagami trough. This was followed by postseismic deformation resulting from reversed afterslip of 20-60 cm that occurred at an exponentially decaying rate in time. The interseismic deformation is produced by steady subduction at a rate of about 1.8 cm/yr. During subduction the top 10-15 km of the plate boundary is apparently locked, while deeper parts slip aseismically at an irregular rate. No significant precursory deformation was observed. The recurrence time for 1923 type earthquakes is 200-300 years. The Boso and Miura peninsulas are broken into a series of fault-bound blocks that move semi-independently of the surrounding region. The subduction zone itself, where it is exposed on land, is shown to be a wide zone encompassing several faults that are active at different times.

Scholz, C. H.↗

The viscoelastic stiffness model of seismicity

A viscoelastic stiffness model of seismicity is developed by introducing a viscoelastic element into the stiffness model for fault dynamics. The introduction of this element permits modeling of transient anelastic deformations in response to stress loading and relaxation and provides a mechanism for partial stress recovery following an earthquake. As a consequence, several phenomena not present in elastic stiffness theory emerge. These include postseismic creep, foreshocks, and aftershocks. Numerical simulations of fault motion also reveal episodes of stable sliding, tertiary creep preceeding earthquakes, and long-term aseismic creep.

Cohen, S. C.↗

Theory of time-dependent rupture in the Earth

Fracture mechanics is used to develop a theory of earthquake mechanism which includes the phenomenon of subcritical crack growth. The following phenomena are predicted: slow earthquakes, multiple events, delayed multiple events (doublets), postseismic rupture growth and afterslip, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The theory predicts a nucleation stage prior to an earthquake, and suggests a physical mechanism by which one earthquake may 'trigger' another.

Das, S.↗

Stress corrosion cracking in the earth

Two fundamental concepts of fracture mechanics are used to develop a theory of the earthquake mechanism which specifically predicts observed time-dependent rupture phenomena such as slow earthquakes, postseismic rupture growth and afterslip, multiple events, foreshocks, and aftershocks. The theory also predicts that there must be a nucleation stage prior to an earthquake, and suggests a physical mechanism by which one earthquake may trigger another. Investigations show that all earthquakes must be preceded by a quasi-static slip over a portion of the rupture surfaces, although it may be difficult to detect in practice, and a study of delayed multiple events characterizes the strength of some barriers in the earth as having a stress corrosion index of about 24.

Das, S.↗

Vertical movements following a dip-slip earthquake

The results of finite element (FEM) computations based on elastic dislocation theory are presented. It is shown that the ratio of fault depth to the lithospheric thickness is a significant factor in the sign of the rebound. Subsidence occurs if the fault penetrates less than approximately 0.68 of the way through the lithosphere. An uplift occurs if the fault cuts deeper. The FEM employed consisted of a 546 node, 500 element grid and a quasi-plane strain algorithm. The situation modeled consisted of a 30 deg dip fault in an initially planar elastic lithosphere overlying a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere. It is suggested that postseismic rebound may be measurable over a several year interval, thus providing data on lithosphere thicknesses.

Melosh, H. J.↗

Strain accumulation and surface deformation along the San Andreas, California

Stressing and rupture of a locked zone adjacent to a creeping fault segment was studied with special reference to strength heterogeneity depthwise and along-strike. The resulting precursory temporal and spatial variations of surface strain rate profiles were compared to geodetic measurements on the San Andreas fault in central California. Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles was also studied with special reference to the temporal decay of strain rate observed since the 1957 and 1906 great earthquakes, and comtemporary surface strain rate and velocity profiles at several locations along the San Andreas. The effect of viscoelastic response in the deep aseismic shear zone on the surface deformation behavior was examined. Work was begun on a fundamental reformulation of the crustal deformation problem focusing on the crustal deformation process affected by deep aseismic slip as the slip zone progresses toward an instability and as deep seismic slip continues postseismically, the 3-D nature of the problem due to geometry and material heterogeneity, and the time-dependent source coming from the lithosphere/astenospheric coupling process.

Li, Victor C.↗

Detection of crustal deformation from the Landers earthquake sequence using continuous geodetic measurements

The first measurements are reported for a major earthquake by a continuously operating GPS network, the permanent GPS Genetic ARRY (PGGA) in southern California. The Landers and Big Bear earthquakes of June 28, 1992 were monitored by daily observations. Ten weeks of measurements indicate significant coseismic motion at all PGGA sites, significant postseismic motion at one site for two weeks after the earthquakes, and no significant preseismic motion. These measurements demonstrate the potential of GPS monitoring for precise detection of precursory and aftershock seismic deformation in the near and far field.

Bock, Yehuda↗

Uplift of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, since the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers, we reoccupied several leveling benchmarks on the Kenai Peninsula of Alaska which had been surveyed by conventional leveling immediately following the March 27, 1964, Prince William Sound earthquake (M(sub w) = 9.3). By combining the two sets of measurements with a new, high-resolution model of the geoid in the region, we were able to determine the cumulative 1993-1964 postseismic vertical displacement. We find uplift at all of our benchmarks, relative to Seward, Alaska, a point that is stable according to tide gauge data. The maximum uplift of about 1 m occurs near the middle of the peninsula. The region of maximum uplift appears to be shifted northwest relative to the point of maximum coseismic subsidence. If we use tide gauge data at Nikishka and Seward to constrain the vertical motion, then the observed uplift has a trenchward tilt (down to the southeast) as well as an arching component. To explain the observations, we use creep-at-depth models. Most acceptable models require a fault slip of about 2.75 m, although this result is not unique. If the slip has been continuous since the 1964 earthquake, then the average slip rate is nearly 100 mm/yr, twice the plate convergence rate. Comparing the net uplift achieved in 29 years with that observed over 11 years in an adjacent region southeast of Anchorage, Alaska, we conclude that the rate of uplift is decreasing. A further decrease in the uplift rate is expected as the 29-year averaged displacement rate is about twice the plate convergence rate and therefore cannot be sustained over the entire earthquake cycle.

Cohen, Steven↗

Permanent GPS Geodetic Array in Southern California

The southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array (PGGA) was established in the spring of 1990 to evaluate continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements as a new too] for monitoring crustal deformation. Southern California is an ideal location because of the relatively high rate of tectonic deformation, the high probability of intense seismicity, the long history of conventional and space geodetic measurements, and the availability of a well developed infrastructure to support continuous operations. Within several months of the start of regular operations, the PGGA recorded far-field coseismic displacements induced by the June 28, 1992 (M(sub w)=7.3), Landers earthquake, the largest magnitude earthquake in California in the past 40 years and the first one to be recorded by a continuous GPS array. Only nineteen months later, on 17 January 1994, the PGGA recorded coseismic displacements for the strongest earthquake to strike the Los Angeles basin in two decades, the (M(sub e)=6.7) Northridge earthquake. At the time of the Landers earthquake, only seven continuous GPS sites were operating in southern California; by the beginning of 1994, three more sites had been added to the array. However, only a pair of sites were situated in the Los Angeles basin. The destruction caused by the Northridge earthquake spurred a fourfold increase in the number of continuous GPS sites in southern California within 2 years of this event. The PGGA is now the regional component of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN), a major ongoing densification of continuous GPS sites, with a concentration in the Los Angeles metropolitan region. Continuous GPS provides temporally dense measurements of surface displacements induced by crustal deformation processes including interseismic, coseismic, postseismic, and aseismic deformation and the potential for detecting anomalous events such as preseismic deformation and interseismic strain variations. Although strain meters yield much higher short-term resolution to a period of about 1 year, a single continuous GPS site is significantly less expensive than a single strain meter and probably has better long-term stability beyond a 1-year period. Compared to less frequent field measurements, continuous GPS provides the means to better characterize the errors in GPS position measurements and thereby obtain more realistic estimates of derived parameters such as site velocities.

Green, Cecil H.↗

Crustal Deformation in Southcentral Alaska: The 1964 Prince William Sound Earthquake Subduction Zone

This article, for Advances in Geophysics, is a summary of crustal deformation studies in southcentral Alaska. In 1964, southcentral Alaska was struck by the largest earthquake (moment magnitude 9.2) occurring in historical times in North America and the second largest earthquake occurring in the world during the past century. Conventional and space-based geodetic measurements have revealed a complex temporal-spatial pattern of crustal movement. Numerical models suggest that ongoing convergence between the North America and Pacific Plates, viscoelastic rebound, aseismic creep along the tectonic plate interface, and variable plate coupling all play important roles in controlling both the surface and subsurface movements. The geodetic data sets include tide-gauge observations that in some cases provide records back to the decades preceding the earthquake, leveling data that span a few decades around the earthquake, VLBI data from the late 1980s, and GPS data since the mid-1990s. Geologic data provide additional estimates of vertical movements and a chronology of large seismic events. Some of the important features that are revealed by the ensemble of studies that are reviewed in this paper include: (1) Crustal uplift in the region that subsided by up 2 m at the time of the earthquake is as much as 1 m since the earthquake. In the Turnagain Arm and Kenai Peninsula regions of southcentral Alaska, uplift rates in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake reached 150 mm/yr , but this rapid uplift decayed rapidly after the first few years following the earthquake. (2) At some other locales, notably those away the middle of the coseismic rupture zone, postseismic uplift rates were initially slower but the rates decay over a longer time interval. At Kodiak Island, for example, the uplift rates have been decreasing at a rate of about 7mm/yr per decade. At yet other locations, the uplift rates have shown little time dependence so far, but are thought not to be sustainable throughout the several hundred year recurrence time for great earthquake. The nearly 10 mm/yr uplift rate at Seldovia on the Kenai Peninsula is an example.

Cohen, Steven C.↗

Developing parallel GeoFEST(P) using the PYRAMID AMR library

The PYRAMID parallel unstructured adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) library has been coupled with the GeoFEST geophysical finite element simulation tool to support parallel active tectonics simulations. Specifically, we have demonstrated modeling of coseismic and postseismic surface displacement due to a simulated Earthquake for the Landers system of interacting faults in Southern California. The new software demonstrated a 25-times resolution improvement and a 4-times reduction in time to solution over the sequential baseline milestone case. Simulations on workstations using a few tens of thousands of stress displacement finite elements can now be expanded to multiple millions of elements with greater than 98% scaled efficiency on various parallel platforms over many hundreds of processors. Our most recent work has demonstrated that we can dynamically adapt the computational grid as stress grows on a fault. In this paper, we will describe the major issues and challenges associated with coupling these two programs to create GeoFEST(P). Performance and visualization results will also be described.

adaptive mesh refinement (AMR)↗