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NASA NTRS2012

Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system.

lake-effect↗
NASA NTRS1993

A time-dependent model of polar cap arcs

In the present 2D time-dependent model of polar cap arcs, the electrodynamics of the polar cap arcs are treated self-consistently in the frame of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system. The focus of this work is a description of the features of the spatial structure and temporal evolution of the polar cap arcs. Results indicate that the time constant for the formation of the polar cap arcs is around 10 min; an initial single-arc precipitation pattern associated with a polar cap arc tends to split into multiple precipitation regions, yielding a multiple polar cap arc structure. Strong downward field-aligned currents can develop near the intensive upward field-aligned currents and form a pair structure of the field-aligned current in the polar cap arcs. The model predicts plasma flow crossing the polar cap arcs, but its amplitude is small and its characteristic time scale is much larger than the time constant for the formation of the polar cap arcs. While polar cap arcs are developing, the associated current system tends to become further localized.

Zhu, L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamics Explorer measurements of particles, fields, and plasma drifts over a horse-collar auroral pattern

As shown from ground-based measurements and satellite-borne imagers, one type of global auroral pattern characteristic of quiet (usually northward IMF) intervals is that of a contracted but thickened emission region of a pattern referred to as 'horse-collar' aurora (Hones et al., 1989). In this report we use the Dynamics Explorer data set to examine a case in which this horse-collar pattern was observed by the DE-1 auroral imager, while at the same time DE-2, at lower altitude, measured precipitating particles, electric and magnetic fields, and plasma drifts. Our analysis shows that, in general, there is close agreement between the optical signatures and the particle precipitation patterns. In many instances, over scales ranging from tens to a few hundred kilometers, electron precipitation features and upward field-aligned currents are observed at locations where the plasma flow gradients indicate negative V-average x E. The particle, plasma, and field measurements made along the satellite track and the 2D perspective of the imager provide a means of determining the configuration of convective flows in the high-latitude ionosphere during this interval of northward IMF. Recent mapping studies are used to relate the low-altitude observations to possible magnetospheric source regions.

Sharber, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evolution of Tropical and Extratropical Precipitation Anomalies During the 1997 to 1999 ENSO Cycle

The 1997-1999 ENSO period was very powerful, but also well observed. Multiple satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a quantitative analysis of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and elsewhere accompanying the 1997-99 ENSO cycle. An examination of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent preceded the formation of positive SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 30-60 day oscillations in the winter of 1996/97 may have contributed to this lag relationship. Furthermore, westerly wind burst events may have maintained the drought over the Maritime Continent. The warming of the equatorial Pacific was then followed by an increase in convection. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured substantial changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. The global precipitation patterns for this event were in good agreement with the strong consistent ENSO-related precipitation signals identified in earlier studies. Differences included a shift in precipitation anomalies over Africa during the 1997-98 El Nino and unusually wet conditions over northeast Australia during the later stages of the El Nino. Also, the typically wet region in the north tropical Pacific was mostly dry during the 1998-99 La Nina. Reanalysis precipitation was compared to observations during this time period and substantial differences were noted. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations.

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2004

Rain Reevaporation, Boundary Layer Convection Interactions, and Pacific Rainfall Patterns in an AGCM

Sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) show that parameterized rain re-evaporation has a large impact on simulated precipitation patterns in the tropical Pacific, especially on the configuration of the model s intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Weak re-evaporation leads t o the formation of a "double ITCZ" during the northern warm season. The double ITCZ is accompanied by strong coupling between precipitation and high-frequency vertical motion in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Strong reevaporation leads to a better overall agreement of simulated precipitation with observations. The model s double ITCZ bias is reduced. At the same time, correlation between high-frequency vertical motion in the PBL and precipitation is reduced. Experiments with modified physics suggest that evaporative cooling by rain near the PBL top weakens the coupling between precipitation and vertical motion. This may reduce the model s tendency to form double ITCZs. The strength of high-frequency vertical motions in the PBL was also reduced directly through the introduction of a diffusive cumulus momentum transport (DCMT) parameterization. The DCMT had a visible impact on simulated precipitation in the tropics, but did not reduce the model s double bias in all cases.

Bacmeister, Julio T.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Water Vapour Adjustments and Responses Differ Between Climate Drivers

Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend on how the hydrological cycle responds to different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. Currently, neither the total anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle nor that from individual drivers is constrained sufficiently to make solid projections. We investigate how integrated water vapour (IWV) responds to different drivers of climate change. Results from 11 global climate models have been used, based on simulations where CO2, methane, solar irradiance, black carbon (BC), and sulfate have been perturbed separately. While the global-mean IWV is usually assumed to increase by 7% per kelvin of surface temperature change, we find that the feedback response of IWV differs somewhat between drivers. Fast responses, which include the initial radiative effect and rapid adjustments to an external forcing, amplify these differences. The resulting net changes in IWV range from 6.4±0.9%K(exp -1) for sulfate to 9.8±2%K(exp -1) for BC. We further calculate the relationship between global changes in IWV and precipitation, which can be characterized by quantifying changes in atmospheric water vapour lifetime. Global climate models simulate a substantial increase in the lifetime, from 8.2±0.5 to 9.9±0.7d between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under a high-emission scenario, and we discuss to what extent the water vapour lifetime provides additional information compared to analysis of IWV and precipitation separately. We conclude that water vapour lifetime changes are an important indicator of changes in precipitation patterns and that BC is particularly efficient in prolonging the mean time, and therefore likely the distance, between evaporation and precipitation.

Hodnebrog, Øivind↗
NASA NTRS1980

Airglow from Jupiter's nightside and crescent - Ultraviolet spectrometer observations from Voyager 2

The Voyager Ultraviolet Spectrometer has made extensive observations of airglow from Jupiter's dark-side equatorial latitudes. The brightness of H Lyman alpha, the only emission detected, varies between 700 and 1000 rayleighs (R) as a function of longitude. The dark side of Jupiter is illuminated by sky background Lyman alpha arising from resonance scattering of the solar Lyman alpha line by the neutral hydrogen of the interstellar medium. Calculations show that resonance scattering of this sky background by hydrogen in Jupiter's thermosphere will produce about 300 R of Lyman alpha emission. The additional Lyman alpha observed is probably excited by electrons and protons precipitating at equatorial latitudes. Based on the 500-R upper limit set here on the dark-side H2 Lyman and Werner bands, and the Lyman alpha measurements, the exciting particles are thought to have a soft energy spectrum and deposit about 0.04 erg/sq cm per sec in the atmosphere. There is evidence for an asymmetrical precipitation pattern associated with the longitudinal variation in Lyman alpha emission, and a suggestion of a strong day-night difference in precipitation as well.

Mcconnell, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamics Explorer measurements of particles, fields, and plasma drifts over a horse-collar auroral pattern

As shown from ground-based measurements and satellite-borne imagers, one type of global auroral pattern characteristic of quiet (usually northward IMF) intervals is that of a contracted but thickened emission region in which the dawn and dusk portions can spread poleward to very high latitudes, (the type of a pattern referred to as a 'horse-collar' aurora by Hones et al., 1989). In this report we use a DE data set to examine a case in which this horse-collar pattern was observed by the DE-1 auroral imager while at the same time the DE-2, at lower altitude, measured precipitating particles, electric and magnetic fields, and plasma drifts. There is close agreement between the optical signatures and the particle precipitation patterns. The particle, plasma, and field measurements made along the satellite track and the 2-D perspective of the imager provide a means of determining the configuration of convective flows in the high-latitude ionosphere during this interval of northward IMF. Recent mapping studies are used to relate the low-altitude observations to possible magnetospheric source regions.

Sharber, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real ]time configuration of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the Noah land surface model (LSM). Output from the SPoRT ]LIS run is used to initialize land surface variables for local modeling applications at select National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices, and can be displayed in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring. The SPoRT ]LIS is run over a domain covering the southern and eastern United States, fully nested within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV precipitation analysis grid, which provides precipitation forcing to the offline LIS ]Noah runs. The SPoRT Center seeks to expand the real ]time LIS domain to the entire Continental U.S. (CONUS); however, geographical limitations with the Stage IV analysis product have inhibited this expansion. Therefore, a goal of this study is to test alternative precipitation forcing datasets that can enable the LIS expansion by improving upon the current geographical limitations of the Stage IV product. The four precipitation forcing datasets that are inter ]compared on a 4 ]km resolution CONUS domain include the Stage IV, an experimental GOES quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from NESDIS/STAR, the National Mosaic and QPE (NMQ) product from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS ]2) analyses. The NLDAS ]2 dataset is used as the control run, with each of the other three datasets considered experimental runs compared against the control. The regional strengths, weaknesses, and biases of each precipitation analysis are identified relative to the NLDAS ]2 control in terms of accumulated precipitation pattern and amount, and the impacts on the subsequent LSM spin ]up simulations. The ultimate goal is to identify an alternative precipitation forcing dataset that can best support an expansion of the real ]time SPoRT ]LIS to a domain covering the entire CONUS.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Self-consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves. 2. Wave Induced Ring Current Precipitation and Thermal Electron Heating

This paper continues presentation and discussion of the results from our new global self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and propagating electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves [Khazanov et al., 2006]. To study the effects of electromagnetic ion cyclotron wave propagation and refraction on the wave induced ring current precipitation and heating of the thermal plasmaspheric electrons, we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings after a simulation can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the wave induced ring current precipitation exhibits quite a lot of fine structure, and is highly organized by location of the plasmapause gradient. The strongest fluxes of about 4 x 10(exp 6) (cm(raised dot) s(raised dot) sr(raised dot) (sup -1)) are observed during the maill and early recovery phases of the storm. The very interesting and probably more important finding is that in a number of cases the most intense precipitating fluxes are not connected to the most intense waves in simple manner. The characteristics of the wave power spectral density distribution over the wave normal angle are extremely crucial for the effectiveness of the ring current ion scattering. Secondly, comparison of the global proton precipitating patterns with the results from RAM [Kozyra et al., 1997a] reveals that although we observe a qualitative agreement between the localizations of the wave induced precipitations in the models, there is no quantitative agreement between the magnitudes of the fluxes. The quantitative differences are mainly due to a qualitative difference between the characteristics of the wave power spectral density distributions over the wave normal angle in RAM and in our model. Thirdly, the heat fluxes to plasmaspheric electrons caused by Landau resonate energy absorption from electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves are observed in the postnoon-premidnight MLT sector, and can reach the magnitude of 10(exp 11) eV/(cm(sup 2)(raised dot)s). The Coulomb energy degradation of the RC H(+) and O(+) ions maximizes at about 10(exp 11) (eV/(cm(sup 2) (raised dot) s), and typically leads to electron energy deposition rates of about 2(raised dot) 10(exp 10) (eV/(cm(sup 2)(raised dot)s) which are observed during two periods; 32-48 hours, and 76-86 hours after 1 May, 0000 UT. The theoretically derived spatial structure of the thermal electron heating caused by interaction of the ring current with the plasmasphere is strongly supported by concurrent and conjugate plasma measurements from the plasmasphere, ring current, and topside ionosphere [Gurgiolo et al., 2005]. Finally, the wave induced intense electron heating has a structure of the spot-like patches along the most enhanced density gradients in the plasmasphere boundary layer and can be a possible driver to the observed but still not explained small-scale structures of enhanced emissions in the stable auroral red arcs.

Khazanov, G. V.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Linear and Nonlinear Trend Analyzes in Global Satellite‐Based Precipitation, 1998–2017

Precipitation varies spatio‐temporally in amount, intensity, and frequency. Although, much research has been conducted on analyzing precipitation patterns and variation at the global scale, trend types have still not received much attention. This study developed a new polynomial‐based model for detecting nonlinear and linear trends in a satellite precipitation product (TRMM 3B43) for the 1998–2017 period at a near‐global scale. We used an automated trend classification method that detects significant trends and classifies them into linear and nonlinear (cubic, quadratic, and concealed) trend types in satellite‐based precipitation at near‐global, continental, and climate zone scales. We found that 12.3% of pixel‐based precipitation time series across the globe have significant trend at 0.05 significance level (50% positive and 50% negative trends). In all continents except Asia, decreasing trends were found to cover larger areas than corresponding increasing trends. Regarding climate zone and precipitation trend change, our results indicate that a linear trend is dominant in the warm temperate (77.7%) and equatorial climates (80.4%) while the least linear change was detected in the polar climate (68.9%). The combined results of continental and climate zone scales indicate significant increasing trends in Asia and arid climate over the last 20 yr. Furthermore, positive trends were found to be more significant at the continental scale, particularly, in Asia relative to the climate zone scale. Linear change in precipitation (80%) was the most dominant trend observed as opposed to nonlinear (quadratic [11%] and cubic [9%]) trend types at the global scale.

Majid Kazemzadeh↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Multi-scale Modeling System: Developments, Applications and Critical Issues

A multi-scale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces the conventional cloud parameterizations with a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of a GCM, constitutes a new and promising approach. The MMF can provide for global coverage and two-way interactions between the CRMs and their parent GCM. The GCM allows global coverage and the CRM allows explicit simulation of cloud processes and their interactions with radiation and surface processes. A new MMF has been developed that is based the Goddard finite volume GCM (fvGCM) and the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. This Goddard MMF produces many features that are similar to another MMF that was developed at Colorado State University (CSU), such as an improved .surface precipitation pattern, better cloudiness, improved diurnal variability over both oceans and continents, and a stronger, propagating Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) compared to their parent GCMs using conventional cloud parameterizations. Both MMFs also produce a precipitation bias in the western Pacific during Northern Hemisphere summer. However, there are also notable differences between two MMFs. For example, the CSU MMF simulates less rainfall over land than its parent GCM. This is why the CSU MMF simulated less overall global rainfall than its parent GCM. The Goddard MMF overestimates global rainfall because of its oceanic component. Some critical issues associated with the Goddard MMF are presented in this paper.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2026

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗
NASA NTRS2017

High Sensitivity of Gross Primary Production in the Rocky Mountains to Summer Rain

n the catchments of the Rocky Mountains, peak snowpack is declining in response to warmer spring temperatures. To understand how this will influence terrestrial gross primary production (GPP), we compared precipitation data across the intermountain west with satellite retrievals of solar-induced fluorescence (SIF), a proxy for GPP. Annual precipitation patterns explained most of the spatial and temporal variability of SIF, but the slope of the response was dependent on site to site differences in the proportion of snowpack to summer rain. We separated the response of SIF to different seasonal precipitation amounts and found that SIF was approximately twice as sensitive to variations in summer rain than snowpack. The response of peak GPP to a secular decline in snowpack will likely be subtle, whereas a change in summer rain amount will have precipitous effects on GPP. The study suggests that the rain use efficiency of Rocky Mountain ecosystems is strongly dependent on precipitation form and timing.

solar-induced 15 Fuorescence (SIF)↗
NASA NTRS2003

African Easterly Waves and Their Association with Precipitation

Summer tropical synoptic-scale waves over West Africa are quantified by the 850 mb meridional wind component from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis project. Their relationships with surface precipitation patterns are further explored by applying the data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite in combination with other satellite observations during 1998-2002. Evident wavelet spectral power peaks are seen within a period of 2.5 - 6 days in both meridional wind and precipitation. The most intense wave signals in meridional wind are concentrated along 15 deg N- 25 deg N. Wave signals in precipitation and corresponding wavelet cross-spectral signals between these two variables, however, are primarily located at 5 deg N- 15 deg N, the latitudes of major summer rain events. There is a tendency for the perturbations in meridional wind component to lag (lead) precipitation signals south (north) of 15 deg N. In some cases, either an in-phase or out-of-phase relationship can even be found between these two variables, suggesting a latitude-dependent horizontal structure for these waves and probably implying two distinct wave-convective coupling mechanisms. Moreover, the lagging relationship (and/or the out-of-phase tendency) is only observed south of 15 deg N during July-September, indicating a strong seasonal preference. This phase relationship is generally consistent with the horizontal wave structures from a composite analysis.

Gu, Guo-Jun↗
NASA NTRS1993

AUREOL-3 observations of new boundaries in the auroral ion precipitation

Interesting and well-separated structures in the 1-20 keV ion precipitation pattern have been revealed by an analysis of more than 50 crossings of the nightside (21-03 MLT) auroral zone by the AUREOL-3 satellite. First, velocity-dispersed ion structures (VDIS) are crossed near the poleward edge of the oval, and are the best ionospheric signature of ion beams flowing along the plasma sheet boundary layer. Proceeding equatorward, a large majority of VDIS events are bounded by a new and interesting narrow band of strongly reduced precipitation, or a gap, which delineates VDIS from the diffuse precipitation region connected to the CPS. A statistical analysis shows that the gap has an extent of about 1-2 deg, which is almost independent of magnetic activity; its location, about 70 deg ILAT, shifts significantly equatorward with higher magnetic activity levels. Intense electron arcs are observed near the equatorward edge of the gap. An important result is that the overall sequence of VDIS-gap-CPS can be explained in terms of orbital dynamics in the tail. The gap in precipitation appears as the counterpart of the 'wall' regime in the equatorial plane, in which a cross-tail current carried by energetic ions is strongly enhanced between 8 and 12 R(E). This region has important consequences for the development of substorms.

Bosqued, Jean M.↗