Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Prediction algorithms”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Optimized Algorithms for Prediction Within Robotic Tele-Operative Interfaces

Robonaut, the humanoid robot developed at the Dexterous Robotics Labo ratory at NASA Johnson Space Center serves as a testbed for human-rob ot collaboration research and development efforts. One of the recent efforts investigates how adjustable autonomy can provide for a safe a nd more effective completion of manipulation-based tasks. A predictiv e algorithm developed in previous work was deployed as part of a soft ware interface that can be used for long-distance tele-operation. In this work, Hidden Markov Models (HMM?s) were trained on data recorded during tele-operation of basic tasks. In this paper we provide the d etails of this algorithm, how to improve upon the methods via optimization, and also present viable alternatives to the original algorithmi c approach. We show that all of the algorithms presented can be optim ized to meet the specifications of the metrics shown as being useful for measuring the performance of the predictive methods. 1

Martin, Rodney A.

Management of analytical redundancy in digital flight control systems for aircraft

This paper presents a design method for optimal redundancy management for nonlinear systems with application to highly maneuvering aircraft. The approach taken is based on selecting the failure states to be covered by the system design and constructing a cost function that represents the cost of making an incorrect decision. The decision logic which minimizes the cost requires a bank of extended Kalman filters running in parallel. This produces a severe computational requirement. To reduce this requirement, a suboptimal logic is developed based on using a nonlinear single-stage prediction algorithm in the filters with filter gains and decision logic selected using steady-state results obtained from a linearization of the vehicle and sensor dynamics. The design process is then applied to designing a redundancy management system for the F8-C aircraft. Results indicate that the system is superior in failure detection to a system using the same structure but using a linear single-stage prediction algorithm in the filters.

Montgomery, R. C.

Optimization and Multimachine Learning Algorithms to Predict Nanometal Surface Area Transfer Parameters for Gold and Silver Nanoparticles

Interactions between gold metallic nanoparticles and molecular dyes have been well described by the nanometal surface energy transfer (NSET) mechanism. However, the expansion and testing of this model for nanoparticles of different metal composition is needed to develop a greater variety of nanosensors for medical and commercial applications. In this study, the NSET formula was slightly modified in the size-dependent dampening constant and skin depth terms to allow for modeling of different metals as well as testing the quenching effects created by variously sized gold, silver, copper, and platinum nanoparticles. Overall, the metal nanoparticles followed more closely the NSET prediction than for Förster resonance energy transfer, though scattering effects began to occur at 20 nm in the nanoparticle diameter. To further improve the NSET theoretical equation, an attempt was made to set a best-fit line of the NSET theoretical equation curve onto the Au and Ag data points. An exhaustive grid search optimizer was applied in the ranges for two variables, 0.1≤C≤2.0 and 0≤α≤4, representing the metal dampening constant and the orientation of donor to the metal surface, respectively. Three different grid searches, starting from coarse (entire range) to finer (narrower range), resulted in more than one million total calculations with values C=2.0 and α=0.0736. The results improved the calculation, but further analysis needed to be conducted in order to find any additional missing physics. With that motivation, two artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) algorithms, multilayer perception and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, gave a correlation coefficient, R2, greater than 0.97, indicating that the small dataset was not overfitting and was method-independent. This analysis indicates that an investigation is warranted to focus on deeper physics informed machine learning for the NSET equations.

Demers, Steven M. E. (ORCID:0000000192213246)

A new algorithm for predicting the apparent polarization angle of linearly polarized spacecraft

With the advent of nonecliptic spacecraft orbits and the inclusion of a NASA X-Y mounted antenna within the DSN it has become apparent that the current polarization angle prediction formulas may be insufficient for future needs. This article presents a new formulation for predicting the polarization angle which properly accommodates these new features in a concise, straightforward form.

Schlaifer, R. S.

Algorithm Development for Predicting Biodiversity Based on Phytoplankton Absorption

Ocean color remote sensing has provided the scientific community with unprecedented global coverage of chlorophyll a, an indicator of phytoplankton biomass. Together, satellite-derived chlorophyll a and knowledge of Phytoplankton Functional Types (PFTs) will improve our limited understanding of marine ecosystem responses to physiochemical climate drivers involved in carbon cycle dynamics and linkages. Using cruise data from the Gulf of Maine and the Middle Atlantic Bight (N 269 pairs of HPLC and phytoplankton absorption samples), two modeling approaches were utilized to predict phytoplankton absorption and pigments. Algorithm I predicts the chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficient (a*(sub ph) (m(exp 2) mg chl a(exp - 1)) using inputs of temperature, light, and chlorophyll a. Modeled r(exp 2) values (400700 nm) ranged from 0.79 to 0.99 when compared to in situ observations with approximately 25 percent lower r(exp 2) values in the UV region. Algorithm II-a utilizes matrix inversion analysis to predict a(sub ph)(m(exp -1), 400700 nm) and r(exp 2) values ranged from 0.89 to 0.99. The prediction of phytoplankton pigments with Algorithm II-b produced r(exp 2) values that ranged from 0.40 to 0.93. When used in combination, Algorithm I, and Algorithm II-a are able to use satellite products of SST, PAR, and chlorophyll a (Algorithm I) to predict pigment concentrations and ratios to describe the phytoplankton community. The results of this study demonstrate that the spatial variation in modeled pigment ratios differ significantly from the 10-year SeaWiFS average chlorophyll a data set. Contiguous observations of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biodiversity will elucidate ecosystem responses with unprecedented complexity.

phytoplankton

Traffic Prediction for Uncommunicative Aircraft in Terminal Airspace: Development Framework and Performance Evaluations

This paper presents an air traffic prediction algorithm that takes observations of an aircraft and classifies aircraft type, estimates the aircraft's intent to and method of joining an airport traffic pattern, and predicts the aircaft's future trajectory. To develop algorithms that enable autonomous aircraft to safely insert into un-towered traffic patterns, several challenges need to be addressed. These challenges range from traffic detection to sensor fusion to own-ship trajectory replanning. Critical to a trajectory replanning algorithm is information regarding the future behavior of all traffic aircraft in the operational environment. The presented traffic prediction algorithm generates this information using regular measurements of traffic aircraft position and velocity to classify the aircraft by speed-class, estimate how the aircraft will approach the runway, and construct a predicted trajectory to the runway including future positions and velocities at specific times. The predictions of the presented algorithm are the necessary inputs for any downstream traffic pattern sequencing and own-ship trajectory planning routines. The presented algorithm is benchmarked using approximately 300 randomized traffic trajectories, spanning four vehicle weight classes and eight traffic entry types. While the algorithm can process multiple traffic vehicles in the terminal area, there is no prediction of traffic-on-traffic interaction. Each traffic vehicle is processed separately.

John D McMinn

Electronic Thermometer Readings

NASA Stennis' adaptive predictive algorithm for electronic thermometers uses sample readings during the initial rise in temperature and applies an algorithm that accurately and rapidly predicts the steady state temperature. The final steady state temperature of an object can be calculated based on the second-order logarithm of the temperature signals acquired by the sensor and predetermined variables from the sensor characteristics. These variables are calculated during tests of the sensor. Once the variables are determined, relatively little data acquisition and data processing time by the algorithm is required to provide a near-accurate approximation of the final temperature. This reduces the delay in the steady state response time of a temperature sensor. This advanced algorithm can be implemented in existing software or hardware with an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM). The capability for easy integration eliminates the expense of developing a whole new system that offers the benefits provided by NASA Stennis' technology.

Source record

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

LVC-DE

Z-Basic algorithm for collision avoidance system

A Z-Basic prediction algorithm for an aircraft ground-based collision avoidance system is presented. This system searches for mutually overlapping prediction intervals that are influenced by the aircrafts' maneuver capabilities and surveillance accuracy. Z-Basic provides a powerful, fast, interactive, simple to use, and inexpensive Basic compiler. The algorithm is applied to a typical terminal airspace situation. The computer program was executed on Macintosh+, and the execution was less than one minute. The program is easy to understand and implement.

Dear, Roger G.

Systems Health Monitoring and Prognostics Using Model Based Approach

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system as well as subsystem levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. In addition a digital twin concept is being implemented in the framework to demonstrate verification and validation of developed algorithms.

Electronics Prognostics

Systems Health Management and Decision Making

In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current and future operations. Given models of the current and future system behavior, the general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prior stated prediction problem. In case of electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current state and health of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operations of the vehicle. Discuss research approach to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system as well as subsystem levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics can be employed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. In addition a digital twin concept is being implemented in the framework to demonstrate verification and validation of developed algorithms. Note - This presentation is for the short workshop conducted at the same conference and contains all previously approved and published information.

Systems Health Managent

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics

Rain compensation algorithm using adaptive linear prediction

Rain compensation algorithm using adaptive linear prediction is presented in viewgraph form. Topics covered include AMT scenario, summary of AMT-RCA, empirical basis for reducing attenuation extrapolation errors, and candidate adaptive 1-pole prediction filter for application to AMT-RCA (at the mobile terminal (MT)).

Satorius, Edgar

DeepSAT: A Deep Learning Approach to Tree-Cover Delineation in 1-m NAIP Imagery for the Continental United States

High resolution tree cover classification maps are needed to increase the accuracy of current land ecosystem and climate model outputs. Limited studies are in place that demonstrates the state-of-the-art in deriving very high resolution (VHR) tree cover products. In addition, most methods heavily rely on commercial softwares that are difficult to scale given the region of study (e.g. continents to globe). Complexities in present approaches relate to (a) scalability of the algorithm, (b) large image data processing (compute and memory intensive), (c) computational cost, (d) massively parallel architecture, and (e) machine learning automation. In addition, VHR satellite datasets are of the order of terabytes and features extracted from these datasets are of the order of petabytes. In our present study, we have acquired the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) dataset for the Continental United States at a spatial resolution of 1-m. This data comes as image tiles (a total of quarter million image scenes with ~60 million pixels) and has a total size of ~65 terabytes for a single acquisition. Features extracted from the entire dataset would amount to ~8-10 petabytes. In our proposed approach, we have implemented a novel semi-automated machine learning algorithm rooted on the principles of "deep learning" to delineate the percentage of tree cover. Using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) initiative, we have developed an end-to-end architecture by integrating a segmentation module based on Statistical Region Merging, a classification algorithm using Deep Belief Network and a structured prediction algorithm using Conditional Random Fields to integrate the results from the segmentation and classification modules to create per-pixel class labels. The training process is scaled up using the power of GPUs and the prediction is scaled to quarter million NAIP tiles spanning the whole of Continental United States using the NEX HPC supercomputing cluster. An initial pilot over the state of California spanning a total of 11,095 NAIP tiles covering a total geographical area of 163,696 sq. miles has produced true positive rates of around 88 percent for fragmented forests and 74 percent for urban tree cover areas, with false positive rates lower than 2 percent for both landscapes.

Imagery

Microwave remote sensing of soil moisture, volume 1

Multifrequency sensor data from NASA's C-130 aircraft were used to determine which of the all weather microwave sensors demonstrated the highest correlation to surface soil moisture over optimal bare soil conditions, and to develop and test techniques which use visible/infrared sensors to compensate for the vegetation effect in this sensor's response to soil moisture. The L-band passive microwave radiometer was found to be the most suitable single sensor system to estimate soil moisture over bare fields. The perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) as determined from the visible/infrared sensors was useful as a measure of the vegetation effect on the L-band radiometer response to soil moisture. A linear equation was developed to estimate percent field capacity as a function of L-band emissivity and the vegetation index. The prediction algorithm improves the estimation of moisture significantly over predictions from L-band emissivity alone.

Mcfarland, M. J.

A Sensitivity Study of the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) Wake Predictor Algorithm to the Resolution of Input Meteorological Profiles

The AVOSS project demonstrated the feasibility of applying aircraft wake vortex sensing and prediction technologies to safe aircraft spacing for single runway arrivals. On average, AVOSS provided spacing recommendations that were less than the current FAA prescribed spacing rules, resulting in a potential airport efficiency gain. Subsequent efforts have included quantifying the operational specifications for future Wake Vortex Advisory Systems (WakeVAS). In support of these efforts, each of the candidate subsystems for a WakeVAS must be specified. The specifications represent a consensus between the high-level requirements and the capabilities of the candidate technologies. This report documents the beginnings of an effort to quantify the capabilities of the AVOSS Prediction Algorithm (APA). Specifically, the APA horizontal position and circulation strength output sensitivity to the resolution of its wind and turbulence inputs is examined. The results of this analysis have implications for the requirements of the meteorological sensing and prediction systems comprising a WakeVAS implementation.

Rutishauser, David K.

Design, Development, and Testing of a UAV Hardware-in-the-Loop Testbed for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

The airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future with the integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, other forms of aviation technology into the airspace. The new technology and complexity increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems & systems of systems can be very difficult, expensive, and sometimes unsafe in real life scenarios. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. The framework injects flight related anomalies related to ground systems, routing, airport congestion, etc. to test and verify algorithms for NAS safety. In our research work, we develop a live, distributed, hardware-in-the-loop testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics along with exploring further research possibilities to verify and validate future algorithms for NAS safety. The testbed integrates virtual aircraft using the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, UAVs using onboard sensors and cellular communications, and hardware in the loop components. In addition, the testbed includes an additional research framework to support and simplify future research activities. It enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of this system. Software reliability, safety and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed. Integration of HITL elements in the development phases and veri cation/ validation are key elements to this report.

HITL