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DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project: Summary Report on Data Analytics Framework

This report summarizes the activities performed under the data analytics Vertex in the Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project funded under laboratory directed research and development at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The data analytics Vertex developed models for associating global or local process parameters, microstructural features, and performance properties of friction-stir-processed 316L stainless steel plates. Statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, as well as generative artificial intelligence approaches, were used to develop the associations between the process-structure-property data streams. These associations formed the basis for predicting global properties of parts manufactured under different process envelopes, providing a basis for predicting performance using data driven as well as physics-informed and physics-constrained approaches. Additionally, the associations were used to predict local process parameters and microstructural features of the product, predictive relationships that have the potential to form the basis of a control framework that could eventually modulate a friction-stir process to maintain product quality.

316L stainless steel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Tool Data Analytics for Digital Twin and Machine Predictive Maintenance

The primary objective of this project is to improve machining process performance using in-process machining data from the machine tool controller and external sensors. Advances in the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) enable monitoring of machines using controller data. Examples of the data provided by a controller include execution status of the controller, part count, block of code being executed, door status, tool position, the spindle and axis load, etc. MTConnect and OPC-UA are the two common protocols for capturing machine information. In this collaboration, methods for retrieving the machine controller data from selected machine tool controls and making these data accessible in different subsystems (such as digital twins and machine maintenance portals, etc.) will be developed and tested. In addition, analytics to improve machining process performance (by increasing productivity and reducing downtime) will be developed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generating entangled steady states in multistable open quantum systems via initial state control

Entanglement underpins the power of quantum technologies, yet it is fragile and typically destroyed by dissipation. Paradoxically, the same dissipation, when carefully engineered, can drive a system toward robust entangled steady states. However, this engineering task is nontrivial, as dissipative many-body systems are complex, particularly when they support multiple steady states. Here, we derive analytic expressions that predict how the steady state of a system evolving under a Lindblad equation depends on the initial state, without requiring integration of the dynamics. These results extend Refs. [V. V. Albert and L. Jiang, Phys. Rev. A 89, 022118 (2014); V. V. Albert et al., Phys. Rev. X 6, 041031 (2016)], showing that while the steady-state manifold is determined by the Liouvillian kernel, the weights within it depend on both the Liouvillian and the initial state. We identify a special class of Liouvillians for which the steady state depends only on the initial overlap with the kernel. Our framework provides analytical insight and a computationally efficient tool for predicting steady states in open quantum systems. As an application, we propose schemes to generate metrologically useful entangled steady states in spin ensembles via balanced collective decay.

Dissipative dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Acausality-driven instabilities in relativistic viscous hydrodynamics

We investigate non-linear instabilities stemming from superluminal propagation of information in Israel-Stewart-like models of relativistic viscous fluid dynamics. In relativity, the characteristic speed of propagation of information, $w$, and the speed of the fluid, $v$, allow us to differentiate between regimes of the hydrodynamic equations that are acausal but stable ($w>1$), unstable ($v^{2} w^{2} \geq 1$), and covariantly ill-posed ($w^{2} \leq 0$). As an analytical benchmark, we present a new solution that illustrates these distinct regimes. We compare this analytical solution to the result of a numerical relativistic viscous fluid dynamics solver, and confirm that the analytical result can be recovered numerically in the stable regime, whether causal or acausal. The onset of numerical instabilities is further found to occur in the regime predicted by the analytical solution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of tritium transport in a gas-liquid contactor CFD simulation of tritium extraction from lead-lithium in ANSYS fluent

Modifications to the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent were done to quantify and characterize tritium transport in Gas-Liquid Contactors (GLCs). A double-slit, Ergun-like equation was employed for the porous media model, with Ergun coefficients validated with Sulzer’s Sulcol software. Tritium transport from PbLi within the GLC was verified against analytical models. The geometry of the CFD model was based on the MELODIE GLC experiment. The hydrodynamic CFD pressure drop results align well with SulCol estimations and fall between the predictions of the analytical Delft-Olujic and Billet & Schultes models. In terms of mass transfer efficiency, traditional mass transfer models showed a significant deviation from experimental results when using varying values of H solubility in PbLi. A saturation phenomenon occurred when utilizing high solubility values for hydrogen in PbLi. In conclusion, a modified film theory mass transfer coefficient, incorporating either the Delft-Olujic or Billet & Schultes wettability model, yielded CFD-predicted extraction efficiencies that closely matched experimental measurements.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Snap-Through Buckling Pressure Prediction of Spherical Caps: A Comparison of Analytical, Implicit, and Explicit Methods

Snap-through buckling is a nonlinear and dynamic instability that occurs in curved shell structures such as domes, pressure vessels, and aerospace panels. Unlike classical linear buckling, it involves a sudden transition between equilibrium states caused by geometric nonlinearity and rapid strain-to-kinetic energy conversion (Timoshenko & Gere, 1961; Budiansky & Roth, 1962). This study investigates the snap-through behavior of thin spherical caps using both implicit and explicit solvers in ANSYS Workbench. While implicit analysis accurately captures quasi-static response, it struggles with convergence near instability. In contrast, explicit LS-DYNA simulation naturally handles the nonlinear dynamic event with minimal tuning and computational cost.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A compartmentalized model of multiphase chemical kinetics

There are significant challenges in predicting multiphase chemical kinetics due to the complex coupling of reaction and mass transport across a phase boundary (i.e., interface). Here, we describe a framework for predicting multiphase kinetics that embeds the elementary kinetic steps of reaction, solvation, and diffusion into a coarse grain spatial description of two phases. The model is constructed to bridge the short-timescale interfacial dynamics observed in molecular simulations with the longer timescales observed in kinetic experiments. A simple set of governing differential equations is derived, which, when solved numerically or analytically, yield accurate predictions of multiphase kinetics in microdroplets. Although the equations are formulated for gas-liquid reactions, the underlying conceptual framework is general and can be applied to transformations in other two-phase systems (solid-liquid, liquid-liquid, etc.).

Chemical kinetics and dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Black hole-neutron star binaries near neutron star disruption limit in the mass regime of event GW230529

In May 2023, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Collaboration reported the likely black hole-neutron star (BHNS) merger GW230529_181500. The signal was observed with high significance in only one detector, limiting constraints on the black hole spin and motivating our study of disruption in this mass regime. That event is expected to be the merger of a 2.5–4.5 M ⊙ primary with a secondary compact object of mass between 1.2–2.0 M ⊙ . This makes it the first BHNS merger with a significant potential for the production of electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, and provides further evidence for compact objects existing within the suspected lower mass gap. To produce post-merger EM transients, the component of the black hole spin aligned with the orbital angular momentum must be sufficiently high, allowing the neutron star to be tidally disrupted. The disrupting BHNS binary may then eject a few percent of a solar mass of matter, leading to an observable kilonova driven by radioactive decays in ejecta, and/or a compact-binary gamma-ray burst (cbGRB) resulting from the formation of an accretion disk and relativistic jet. Determining which mergers lead to disruption of the neutron star is necessary to predict the prevalence of EM signals from BHNS mergers, yet most BHNS simulations so far have been performed far from the minimum spin required for tidal disruption. Here, we use the Spectral Einstein Code to explore the behavior of BHNS mergers in a mass range consistent with GW230529_181500 close to that critical spin, and compare our results against the mass remnant model currently used by the LVK Collaboration to predict the probability of tidal disruption. Furthermore, our numerical results reveal the emergence of non-zero accretion disks even below the predicted NS disruption limit, of low mass but capable of powering cbGRBs. Our results also demonstrate that the remnant mass model underpredicts the disk mass for the DD2 equation of state, while they are within expected modeling errors for SFHo. The disruption limit itself, however, is not found to significantly differ from the predictions of the analytical model, unless remnant masses M rem ≲ 0.001 M ⊙ prove interesting observationally. In all of our simulations, any kilonova signal would be dim and most likely dominated by post-merger disk outflows.

GW230529_181500↗

DOE OSTI2026

Photon phase-space dynamics in a plasma wakefield accelerator

Frequency up-shifting of laser light in a beam-driven plasma wakefield has the potential to provide high-intensity sources of short wavelength radiation. Simulations have demonstrated that a laser pulse can undergo large frequency shifts, limited only by the drive beam energy, when the plasma density is tailored to match the accelerating phase of the wake to the group velocity of the pulse. Here, we study the dynamical evolution of photons in the 1D1P phase-space vicinity of the plasma wake-phase matching condition. Numerical calculations using a photon kinetic model are validated by direct comparison with 1D and quasi-3D particle-in-cell simulations. These calculations form the basis of a linear theory of the photon dynamics which reveals several important results, including scalings for the properties of the witness pulse and a self-similar solution for the photon phase-space dynamics. One prediction of the analytic theory is that the pulse can be compressed indefinitely, though the amount of compression would ultimately be limited by practical constraints. These results suggest that photon acceleration can provide a novel source of sub-femtosecond, short wavelength radiation.

XUV generation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Infernal instabilities in negative-triangularity plasmas with negative central shear

Abstract A systematic numerical investigation is carried out to understand magnetohydrodynamic stability of the ideal infernal-kink instability in tokamak plasmas with both negative triangularity (neg-D) shaping and negative central shear for the equilibrium safety factor profile. The latter is motivated by the desire to form the internal transport barrier in the neg-D configuration, which is known to have difficulty in forming the edge transport barrier. The infernal-kink mode is generally found to be more unstable in neg-D plasmas as compared to their positive D-shaped (pos-D) counterpart. This is mainly due to less favorable (or even unfavorable) average magnetic curvature near the radial location of the minimum safety factor ( q min ) as compared to the pos-D configuration. The larger Shafranov shift associated with the neg-D shape helps the mode stabilization but is not sufficient to overcome the destabilizing effect due to bad curvature. Strong poloidal mode coupling due to plasma shaping (toroidicity, elongation, triangularity, etc.) helps explain the slight shift with respect to that predicted by the analytic theory of the peak location of the computed mode growth versus q min .

Zhang, X. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heavy flavor jet substructure at lepton colliders

We provide a detailed analysis of event-shape observables, namely the energy correlation function and jet angularity, for heavy-flavor jets produced in electron-positron collisions, focusing on quantum chromodynamics (QCD) interactions. Using modern jet substructure techniques, we investigate the dead-cone effect, where QCD radiation is suppressed around a heavy quark within an angle proportional to its mass. Our analysis achieves next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy, combined with partial fixed-order contributions, to improve the description of the transition near the dead-cone threshold. To ensure a comprehensive perspective, we compare our analytical results with predictions from the pythia, herwig, and sherpa Monte Carlo simulations at past and future lepton colliders.

Perturbative QCD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving Additive Manufactured Component Performance through Multi-Scale Microstructure Simulation and Process Optimization

The purpose of this project was to utilize computational tools to understand the relationships between processing, microstructure, and properties for additively manufactured (AM) aluminum alloys for automotive applications, and to provide an engineering solution for helping to optimize process conditions. The project leverages ORNL developments in computational modeling, including AM process modeling, phase-field based microstructure evolution predictions, and data analytics techniques for mapping process conditions to material outcomes. The project utilized an Al-Cu-Mn-Zr alloy as a model material for studying formation of defects and microstructural features in response to variations in process conditions. Based on both pre-existing experimental data and simulation results, statistical process maps were constructed to identify regions of process space with minimal defect formation and advantageous microstructures and properties. The software tools used for this purpose were successful disseminated to GM, who were able to successful compile the relevant HPC codes within their own computing ecosystem and perform initial calculations to reproduce ORNL results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resonant Metasurfaces with Van Der Waals Hyperbolic Nanoantennas and Extreme Light Confinement

This work reports on a metasurface based on optical nanoantennas made of van der Waals material hexagonal boron nitride. The optical nanoantenna made of hyperbolic material was shown to support strong localized resonant modes stemming from the propagating high-k waves in the hyperbolic material. An analytical approach was used to determine the mode profile and type of cuboid nanoantenna resonances. An electric quadrupolar mode was demonstrated to be associated with a resonant magnetic response of the nanoantenna, which resembles the induction of resonant magnetic modes in high-refractive-index nanoantennas. The analytical model accurately predicts the modes of cuboid nanoantennas due to the strong boundary reflections of the high-k waves, a capability that does not extend to plasmonic or high-refractive-index nanoantennas, where the imperfect reflection and leakage of the mode from the cavity complicate the analysis. In the reported metasurface, excitations of the multipolar resonant modes are accompanied by directional scattering and a decrease in the metasurface reflectance to zero, which is manifested as the resonant Kerker effect. Van der Waals nanoantennas are envisioned to support localized resonances and can become an important functional element of metasurfaces and transdimensional photonic components. By designing efficient subwavelength scatterers with high-quality-factor resonances, this work demonstrates that this type of nanoantenna made of naturally occurring hyperbolic material is a viable substitute for plasmonic and all-dielectric nanoantennas in developing ultra-compact photonic components.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Distributions of Particles Accelerated by Strong Alfvénic Turbulence

This work presents a model for generating nonthermal power-law tails of particles’ energy probability density functions in turbulent collisionless plasmas, applicable to both nonrelativistic and relativistic scenarios. We propose that strong Alfvénic turbulence energizes plasma particles through curvature acceleration, particularly for particles with Larmor radii comparable to the scales of turbulence. When the energy density of the energized particles increases, the efficiency of the energy exchange process diminishes. As a result, the acceleration process saturates, leading to power-law distributions of particle momentum and energy. In the nonrelativistic case, the momentum probability density function scales as f(p)dp ∝ p −3 dp, while in the ultrarelativistic case, the energy probability density function scales as f(γ)dγ ∝ γ −3 dγ, where γ is the Lorentz factor. This model provides a unified framework for understanding particle acceleration in both energy regimes, complementing existing analytical approaches. The predicted scalings are consistent with available observations of energetic ion distributions in the heliosphere and with the findings from numerical simulations of ultrarelativistic particle acceleration in magnetically dominated plasma turbulence.

Alfven waves↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Uncertainty in HPC Job Queue Time Predictions

High Performance Computing (HPC) has developed at an unprecedented pace in recent decades. This growth has demanded corresponding development in the area of HPC Operational Data Analytics (ODA), which encompasses a wide range of data analysis techniques, ML/AI efforts, tools, and visualizations. Published studies in ODA offer a variety of practical ways to inform HPC users, administrators, procurement managers, and other stakeholders. Uncertainty analysis, however, is rare in the related published literature. For instance, we identify only 1 out of 14 existing studies focused on job queue time prediction that investigates the uncertainty aspect of their proposed predictions. We recognize the utmost importance uncertainty quantification can have in such predictive analytics solutions, with consequences in how users interpret information they receive, and attempt to bridge this gap. With the goal of improving access to such insights, we develop a process for determining upper and lower bounds of the predicted queue times of a regression model at a specified confidence level. Our current research is focused on the uncertainty in predicting job queue times, yet our approach may be employed in predicting other metrics.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 1

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024). Three distinct rounds of FSP experiments were performed by the experimental team, producing replicate samples utilizing across different nominal processing conditions (Condition IDs) listed in Table 1. The starting material on which FSP was applied was commercially available unprocessed stainless-steel type 316L material. Chosen processing conditions were very diverse, and some were intentionally chosen to produce defects. Several samples experienced tool breakage during experimentation, so a full set of three replicates was not produced for every nominal processing condition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗