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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
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NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating Shielding Effectiveness for Reducing Space Radiation Cancer Risks

We discuss calculations of probability distribution functions (PDF) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE). The PDF s are used in significance tests of the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments are considered in models of cancer risk PDF s. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. We show that the cancer risk uncertainty, defined as the ratio of the 95% confidence level (CL) to the point estimate is about 4-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missions (<180 d), SPE s present the most significant risk, however one that is mitigated effectively by shielding, especially for carbon composites structures with high hydrogen content. In contrast, for long duration lunar (>180 d) or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits, with 95% CL s exceeding 10% fatal risk for males and females on a Mars mission. For reducing GCR cancer risks, shielding materials are marginally effective because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativistic particles. At the present time, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding can not be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding based on a significance test that accounts for radiobiology uncertainties in GCR risk projection.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Scalar Dissipation Modeling for Passive and Active Scalars: a priori Study Using Direct Numerical Simulation

Transitional databases from Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of three-dimensional mixing layers for single-phase flows and two-phase flows with evaporation are analyzed and used to examine the typical hypothesis that the scalar dissipation Probability Distribution Function (PDF) may be modeled as a Gaussian. The databases encompass a single-component fuel and four multicomponent fuels, two initial Reynolds numbers (Re), two mass loadings for two-phase flows and two free-stream gas temperatures. Using the DNS calculated moments of the scalar-dissipation PDF, it is shown, consistent with existing experimental information on single-phase flows, that the Gaussian is a modest approximation of the DNS-extracted PDF, particularly poor in the range of the high scalar-dissipation values, which are significant for turbulent reaction rate modeling in non-premixed flows using flamelet models. With the same DNS calculated moments of the scalar-dissipation PDF and making a change of variables, a model of this PDF is proposed in the form of the (beta)-PDF which is shown to approximate much better the DNS-extracted PDF, particularly in the regime of the high scalar-dissipation values. Several types of statistical measures are calculated over the ensemble of the fourteen databases. For each statistical measure, the proposed (beta)-PDF model is shown to be much superior to the Gaussian in approximating the DNS-extracted PDF. Additionally, the agreement between the DNS-extracted PDF and the (beta)-PDF even improves when the comparison is performed for higher initial Re layers, whereas the comparison with the Gaussian is independent of the initial Re values. For two-phase flows, the comparison between the DNS-extracted PDF and the (beta)-PDF also improves with increasing free-stream gas temperature and mass loading. The higher fidelity approximation of the DNS-extracted PDF by the (beta)-PDF with increasing Re, gas temperature and mass loading bodes well for turbulent reaction rate modeling.

scalar dissipation modeling↗
NASA NTRS2007

Modeling Evaporation of Drops of Different Kerosenes

A mathematical model describes the evaporation of drops of a hydrocarbon liquid composed of as many as hundreds of chemical species. The model is intended especially for application to any of several types of kerosenes commonly used as fuels. The concept of continuous thermodynamics, according to which the chemical composition of the evaporating multicomponent liquid is described by use of a probability distribution function (PDF). However, the present model is more generally applicable than is its immediate predecessor.

Bellan, Josette↗
NASA NTRS2006

Direct Numerical Simulation of Transitional Multicomponent-Species Gaseous and Multicomponent-Liquid Drop-Laden Mixing

A model of multicomponent-liquid (MC-liquid) drop evaporation in a three-dimensional mixing layer is here exercised at larger Reynolds numbers than in a previous study, and transitional states are obtained. The gas phase is followed in an Eulerian frame and the multitude of drops is described in a Lagrangian frame. Complete coupling between phases is included with source terms in the gas conservation equations accounting for the drop/flow interaction in terms of drop drag, drop heating and species evaporation. The liquid composition, initially specified as a single-Gamma (SG) probability distribution function (PDF) depending on the molar mass is allowed to evolve into a linear combination of two SGPDFs, called the double-Gamma PDF (DGPDF). The compositions of liquid and vapor emanating from the drops are calculated through four moments of the DGPDFs, which are drop-specific and location-specific, respectively. The mixing layer is initially excited to promote the double pairing of its four initial spanwise vortices into an ultimate vortex in which small scales proliferate. Simulations are performed for four liquids of different compositions and the effect of the initial mass loading and initial free-stream gas temperature are explored. For reference, Simulations are also performed for gaseous multicomponent mixing layers for which the effect of Reynolds number is investigated. The results encompass examination of the global layer characteristics, flow visualizations and homogeneous-plane statistics at transition. Comparisons are performed with previous pre-transitional MC-liquid simulations and with transitional single-component (SC) liquid studies. It is found that MCC flows at transition, the classical energy cascade is of similar strength, but that the smallest scales contain orders of magnitude less energy than SC flows, which is confirmed by the larger viscous dissipation in the former case. Contrasting to pre-transitional MC flows, the vorticity and drop organization depend on the initial gas temperature, this being due to the drop/turbulence coupling. The vapor-composition mean molar mass and standard deviation distributions strongly correlate with the initial liquid-composition PDF; such a correlation only exists for the magnitude of the mean but not for that of the standard deviation. Unlike in pre-transitional situations, regions of large composition standard deviation no longer necessarily coincide with regions of large mean molar mass. The kinetic energy, rotational and composition characteristics, and dissipation are liquid specific and the variation among liquids is amplified with increasing free-stream gas temperature. Eulerian and Lagrangian statistics of gas-phase quantities show that the different. Observation framework may affect the perception of the flow characteristics. The gas composition, of which the first four moments are calculated, is shown to be close to, but distinct from a SGPDF. The PDF of the scalar dissipation rate is calculated for drop-laden layers and is shown to depart more significantly from the typically assumed Gaussian in gaseous flows than experimentally measured gaseous scalar dissipation rates, this being attributed to the increased heterogeneity due to drop/flow interactions.

tubulent multicompenent-species↗
NASA NTRS2011

Uncertainty Analysis in Space Radiation Protection

Space radiation is comprised of high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, protons, and secondary radiation including neutrons. The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are a major limitation to the length of space missions, the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches, and application of the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. For long duration space missio ns, risks may approach radiation exposure limits, therefore the uncertainties in risk projections become a major safety concern and methodologies used for ground-based works are not deemed to be sufficient. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals in the projection model. We discuss NASA s approach to space radiation uncertainty assessments and applications for the International Space Station (ISS) program and design studies of future missions to Mars and other destinations. Several features of NASA s approach will be discussed. Radiation quality descriptions are based on the properties of radiation tracks rather than LET with probability distribution functions (PDF) for uncertainties derived from radiobiology experiments at particle accelerators. The application of age and gender specific models for individual astronauts is described. Because more than 90% of astronauts are never-smokers, an alternative risk calculation for never-smokers is used and will be compared to estimates for an average U.S. population. Because of the high energies of the GCR limits the benefits of shielding and the limited role expected for pharmaceutical countermeasures, uncertainty reduction continues to be the optimal approach to improve radiation safety for space missions.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Warming Induced Changes in Rainfall Characteristics in IPCC AR5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristic induced by global warming are examined from outputs of IPCC AR5 models. Different scenarios of climate warming including a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a medium mitigation scenario (RCP 4.5), and 1% per year CO2 increase are compared to 20th century simulations (historical). Results show that even though the spatial distribution of monthly rainfall anomalies vary greatly among models, the ensemble mean from a sizable sample (about 10) of AR5 models show a robust signal attributable to GHG warming featuring a shift in the global rainfall probability distribution function (PDF) with significant increase (>100%) in very heavy rain, reduction (10-20% ) in moderate rain and increase in light to very light rains. Changes in extreme rainfall as a function of seasons and latitudes are also examined, and are similar to the non-seasonal stratified data, but with more specific spatial dependence. These results are consistent from TRMM and GPCP rainfall observations suggesting that extreme rainfall events are occurring more frequently with wet areas getting wetter and dry-area-getting drier in a GHG induced warmer climate.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Canonical Response in Rainfall Characteristics to Global Warming: Projections by IPCC CMIP5 Models

Changes in rainfall characteristics induced by global warming are examined based on probability distribution function (PDF) analysis, from outputs of 14 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), CMIP (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under various scenarios of increased CO2 emissions. Results show that collectively CMIP5 models project a robust and consistent global and regional rainfall response to CO2 warming. Globally, the models show a 1-3% increase in rainfall per degree rise in temperature, with a canonical response featuring large increase (100-250 %) in frequency of occurrence of very heavy rain, a reduction (5-10%) of moderate rain, and an increase (10-15%) of light rain events. Regionally, even though details vary among models, a majority of the models (>10 out of 14) project a consistent large scale response with more heavy rain events in climatologically wet regions, most pronounced in the Pacific ITCZ and the Asian monsoon. Moderate rain events are found to decrease over extensive regions of the subtropical and extratropical oceans, but increases over the extratropical land regions, and the Southern Oceans. The spatial distribution of light rain resembles that of moderate rain, but mostly with opposite polarity. The majority of the models also show increase in the number of dry events (absence or only trace amount of rain) over subtropical and tropical land regions in both hemispheres. These results suggest that rainfall characteristics are changing and that increased extreme rainfall events and droughts occurrences are connected, as a consequent of a global adjustment of the large scale circulation to global warming.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

Wolf, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2017

Optimization of a Deep Convective Cloud Technique in Evaluating the Long-Term Radiometric Stability of MODIS Reflective Solar Bands

MODIS reflective solar bands are calibrated on-orbit using a solar diffuser and near-monthly lunar observations. To monitor the performance and effectiveness of the on-orbit calibrations, pseudo-invariant targets such as deep convective clouds (DCCs), Libya-4, and Dome-C are used to track the long-term stability of MODIS Level 1B product. However, the current MODIS operational DCC technique (DCCT) simply uses the criteria set for the 0.65- m band. We optimize several critical DCCT parameters including the 11- micrometer IR-band Brightness Temperature (BT11) threshold for DCC identification, DCC core size and uniformity to help locate DCCs at convection centers, data collection time interval, and probability distribution function (PDF) bin increment for each channel. The mode reflectances corresponding to the PDF peaks are utilized as the DCC reflectances. Results show that the BT11 threshold and time interval are most critical for the Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) bands. The Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function model is most effective in reducing the DCC anisotropy for the visible channels. The uniformity filters and PDF bin size have minimal impacts on the visible channels and a larger impact on the SWIR bands. The newly optimized DCCT will be used for future evaluation of MODIS on-orbit calibration by MODIS Characterization Support Team.

Mu, Qiaozhen↗
NASA NTRS2001

Laboratory characterization of silicon avalanche photodiodes (APD) for pulse position modulation (PPM) detection

Two commercially available large area silicon avalanche photodiodes (APD) were characterized in the laboratory. Specifically, the response of the APD’s to a sequence of 8-bit pulse position modulated (256-PPM) laser pulses, with and without background noise, was recorded and stored for post analysis. Empirical probability distribution functions (pdf) were constructed from the signal and noise slot data and compared to pdf’s predicted by an analytical model based on Webb/Gaussian statistics. The limited pulse sequence was also used to generate bit-error rate (BER) versus signal photons per pulse values, albeit with large error bars. These BER measurements were also compared to results predicted using the Gaussian and Webb/Gaussian models for APD channel statistics. While the measurements qualitatively reflect features predicted by theory, significant quantitative deviations are displayed between the measurements and theory. The source of these discrepancies is not currently well understood, but it is surmised that inaccurate knowledge of detector parameters such as gain and noise equivalent temperature models may explain the discrepancies.

Biswas, A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inter-Calibrating the CERES SW Instrument Fluxes Using Deep Convective Clouds(DCC) Within the Same Sun-Synchronous Orbit

The NASA CERES EBAF product provides the scientific community observed TOA fluxes to monitor the Earth’s energy imbalance and to validate climate models. To provide a seamless EBAF 24-year record, the CERES instrument calibration must be stable and consistent across satellite records. Once the Terra and Aqua spacecraft are decommissioned at the end of 2025, the CERES project will rely on CERES instrument observations on the SNPP and NOAA-20 1:30 PM sun-synchronous orbits. The SNPP and NOAA-20 satellite orbit placement will prevent any time matched observations for inter-calibration efforts. The future Libera instrument, which will continue the CERES record and scheduled for launch in 2028 onboard the NOAA-22 satellite, will also need to be inter-calibrated without the aid of time-matched observations. Deep convective clouds (DCC) are the most Lambertian, brightest, tropical Earth invariant targets located at the tropopause making them ideal to radiometrically scale the CERES SW observed radiance to a common reference. The SNPP, NOAA-20 and future NOAA-22 satellites are in the same 16-day repeatable orbits, allowing the DCC targets to be observed with the same angular configuration. The empirically derived SNPP CERES SW channel Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) can be easily be applied to the NOAA-20 CERES SW channel radiances since they observe the nearly the same DCC systems. The DCC BRDF corrected radiances are analyzed collectively into radiance probability distribution functions (PDF). By comparing the PDF statistics, the SNPP and NOAA-20 CERES SW channel can be inter-calibrated. The inter-calibration coefficients are validated with the CERES instrument calibration team coefficients to optimize the methodology.

David Doelling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMB-PAInT: An inpainting tool for the cosmic microwave background

Abstract The presence of astrophysical emissions in microwave observations forces us to perform component separation to extract the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) signal. However, even in the most optimistic cases, there are still strongly contaminated regions, such as the Galactic plane or those with emission from extragalactic point sources, which require the use of a mask. Since many CMB analyses, especially the ones working in harmonic space, need the whole sky map, it is crucial to develop a reliable inpainting algorithm that replaces the values of the excluded pixels by others statistically compatible with the rest of the sky. This is especially important when working withQandUsky maps in order to obtainE- andB-mode maps which are free fromE-to-Bleakage. In this work we study a method based on Gaussian Constrained Realizations (GCR), that can deal with both intensity and polarization. Several tests have been performed to asses the validation of the method, including the study of the one-dimensional probability distribution function (1-PDF),E- andB-mode map reconstruction, and power spectra estimation. We have considered two scenarios for the input simulation: one case with only CMB signal and a second one including also Planck PR4 semi-realistic noise. Even if we are limited to low resolution maps, N side = 64 ifT,QandUare considered, we believe that this is a useful approach to be applied to future missions such as LiteBIRD, where the target are the largest scales.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deep Convective Cloud Calibration Sensitivity Studies in Support of Radiometrically Scaling GEO Imagers With VIIRS

The NASA CERES SYN1deg product provides the scientific community regional hourly TOA and surface broadband fluxes and clouds. For consistent geostationary (GEO) derived fluxes and clouds the GEO imagers are radiometrically scaled to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. The CERES project utilizes GEO and MODIS or VIIRS analogous channel coincident, collocated, and co-angled radiance pairs as the primary method to inter-calibrate the GEO imagers. Tropical deep convective clouds (DCC) are bright, near Lambertian, top of atmosphere pseudo invariant Earth targets that do not rely on coincident ray-matched radiance pairs to radiometrically scale sensors to a common calibration reference. The DCC invariant target (DCC-IT) methodology collectively analyzes all tropical DCC identified pixel radiances by way of probability density function (PDF) distributions. Perfectly inter-calibrated sensor pairs should reveal nearly identical PDF distributions given the same DCC identification criterion. The PDF median, mean, mode, and inflection point statistics were tested as a function of DCC identification criterion using SNPP-VIIRS and Himawari-8 AHI 0.65μm channel radiances during January 2019. It was found that the PDF inflection point provided inter-calibration factors within 0.25% that were nearly independent of DCC identification criterion. The PDF median provided inter-calibration factors within 0.25% for the coldest BT and most stringent homogeneity factors. The PDF mean and mode statistics were inadequate under any DCC conditions. It is critical for the DCC pixel radiances to be anisotropically corrected. The DCC-IT methodology will also be tested for other visible and SWIR bands.

DCC↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Self-similarity of k -nearest neighbour distributions in scale-free simulations

ABSTRACT We use the k-nearest neighbour probability distribution function (kNN-PDF; Banerjee & Abel 2021a) to assess convergence in a scale-free N-body simulation. Compared to our previous two-point analysis, the kNN-PDF allows us to quantify our results in the language of haloes and numbers of particles, while also incorporating non-Gaussian information. We find good convergence for 32 particles and greater at densities typical of haloes, while 16 particles and fewer appear unconverged. Halving the softening length extends convergence to higher densities, but not to fewer particles. Our analysis is less sensitive to voids, but we analyse a limited range of underdensities and find evidence for convergence at 16 particles and greater even in sparse voids.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1972

On the probability of cycle-slipping in first-order phase-locked loops.

The first-passage time boundary value problem for first-order phase-locked loops (PLL) is analyzed, and spectral representations are developed for the probability density function (pdf), the distribution function, and the moments of the first time to passage (or cycle-slip). For the sinusoidal PLL, an asymptotic formula, that is surprisingly accurate even at low loop SNR's and large frequency offsets, is obtained for the pdf of the time to cycle-slip, in terms of the mean time to slip.

La Frieda, J. R.↗