Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability Theory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Intelligent Machines in the 21st Century: Automating the Processes of Inference and Inquiry

The last century saw the application of Boolean algebra toward the construction of computing machines, which work by applying logical transformations to information contained in their memory. The development of information theory and the generalization of Boolean algebra to Bayesian inference have enabled these computing machines. in the last quarter of the twentieth century, to be endowed with the ability to learn by making inferences from data. This revolution is just beginning as new computational techniques continue to make difficult problems more accessible. However, modern intelligent machines work by inferring knowledge using only their pre-programmed prior knowledge and the data provided. They lack the ability to ask questions, or request data that would aid their inferences. Recent advances in understanding the foundations of probability theory have revealed implications for areas other than logic. Of relevance to intelligent machines, we identified the algebra of questions as the free distributive algebra, which now allows us to work with questions in a way analogous to that which Boolean algebra enables us to work with logical statements. In this paper we describe this logic of inference and inquiry using the mathematics of partially ordered sets and the scaffolding of lattice theory, discuss the far-reaching implications of the methodology, and demonstrate its application with current examples in machine learning. Automation of both inference and inquiry promises to allow robots to perform science in the far reaches of our solar system and in other star systems by enabling them to not only make inferences from data, but also decide which question to ask, experiment to perform, or measurement to take given what they have learned and what they are designed to understand.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The SIMRAND methodology: Theory and application for the simulation of research and development projects

A research and development (R&D) project often involves a number of decisions that must be made concerning which subset of systems or tasks are to be undertaken to achieve the goal of the R&D project. To help in this decision making, SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects) is a methodology for the selection of the optimal subset of systems or tasks to be undertaken on an R&D project. Using alternative networks, the SIMRAND methodology models the alternative subsets of systems or tasks under consideration. Each path through an alternative network represents one way of satisfying the project goals. Equations are developed that relate the system or task variables to the measure of reference. Uncertainty is incorporated by treating the variables of the equations probabilistically as random variables, with cumulative distribution functions assessed by technical experts. Analytical techniques of probability theory are used to reduce the complexity of the alternative networks. Cardinal utility functions over the measure of preference are assessed for the decision makers. A run of the SIMRAND Computer I Program combines, in a Monte Carlo simulation model, the network structure, the equations, the cumulative distribution functions, and the utility functions.

Miles, R. F., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A unified and constructive framework for the universality of neural networks

Abstract One of the reasons why many neural networks are capable of replicating complicated tasks or functions is their universal approximation property. Though the past few decades have seen tremendous advances in theories of neural networks, a single constructive and elementary framework for neural network universality remains unavailable. This paper is an effort to provide a unified and constructive framework for the universality of a large class of activation functions including most of the existing ones. At the heart of the framework is the concept of neural network approximate identity (nAI). The main result is as follows: any nAI activation function is universal in the space of continuous functions on compacta. It turns out that most of the existing activation functions are nAI, and thus universal. The framework induces several advantages over the contemporary counterparts. First, it is constructive with elementary means from functional analysis, probability theory, and numerical analysis. Second, it is one of the first unified and constructive attempts that is valid for most of the existing activation functions. Third, it provides new proofs for most activation functions. Fourth, for a given activation and error tolerance, the framework provides precisely the architecture of the corresponding one-hidden neural network with a predetermined number of neurons and the values of weights/biases. Fifth, the framework allows us to abstractly present the first universal approximation with a favorable non-asymptotic rate. Sixth, our framework also provides insights into the developments, and hence providing constructive derivations, of some of the existing approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1982

A comprehensive model to determine the effects of temperature and species fluctuations on reaction rates in turbulent reacting flows

The use of probability theory to determine the effects of turbulent fluctuations on reaction rates in turbulent combustion systems is briefly reviewed. Results are presented for the effect of species fluctuations in particular. It is found that turbulent fluctuations of species act to reduce the reaction rates, in contrast with the temperature fluctuations previously determined to increase Arrhenius reaction rate constants. For the temperature fluctuations, a criterion is set forth for determining if, in a given region of a turbulent flow field, the temperature can be expected to exhibit ramp like fluctuations. Using the above results, along with results previously obtained, a model is described for testing the effects of turbulent fluctuations of temperature and species on reaction rates in computer programs dealing with turbulent reacting flows. An alternative model which employs three variable probability density functions (temperature and two species) and is currently being formulated is discussed as well.

Chinitz, W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A consistent, Bayesian, approach to the cross section probability distribution in the unresolved resonance region

The cross sections of neutron-induced reactions can be divided into three energy ranges: the resolved resonance region (RRR), the unresolved resonance region (URR), and the fast region. In general, the cross sections in the URR show significant fluctuations that cannot be predicted and cannot be experimentally resolved, thus, it is commonly assumed that the cross section at a specific energy is given by a probability distribution function (PDF) over a range of values that can span several orders of magnitude. The current methodology used to describe such behavior is to construct the PDF by stochastically generating resonance ladders and numerically measuring the PDF. The resonance ladders are sampled using known resonance statistical properties and average resonance widths and spacings extrapolated from the RRR. Although this is a standard and widely used technique, it is computationally very expensive, therefore, an alternative, analytical, approach would be preferable due to the considerable speed up of the computational time in real life applications. Moreover, the current methodology does not take into account existing experimental data, such for total and capture cross sections, that are available for many nuclei. Finally, this approach was developed to be used in reactor-scale applications and it is not suited for use in single-event applications. In this work we will rethink the entire approach to the PDF construction using a Bayesian mindset. This will allow us to provide a different definition of the PDF that allows a much faster calculation of the higher-temperature PDFs and a proper combination of theoretical and experimental PDFs following the probability theory. We will also show that our definition is well suited for single-event applications and we will make an explicit connection between our method and the standard approach. We do this by showing that the central limit theorem applies and our method leads to the same PDF obtained with the standard methodology, for a large number of events per history.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Convergence acceleration of Monte Carlo many-body perturbation methods by direct sampling

In the Monte Carlo many-body perturbation (MC-MP) method, the conventional correlation-correction formula, which is a long sum of products of low-dimensional integrals, is first recast into a short sum of high-dimensional integrals over electron-pair and imaginary-time coordinates. These high-dimensional integrals are then evaluated by the Monte Carlo method with random coordinates generated by the Metropolis–Hasting algorithm according to a suitable distribution. The latter algorithm, while advantageous in its ability to sample nearly any distribution, introduces autocorrelation in sampled coordinates, which in turn increases the statistical uncertainty of the integrals and thus the computational cost. It also involves wasteful rejected moves and an initial “burn-in” step as well as displays hysteresis. Here, an algorithm is proposed that directly produces a random sequence of electron-pair coordinates for the same distribution used in the MC-MP method, which is free from autocorrelation, rejected moves, a burn-in step, or hysteresis. Furthermore, this direct-sampling algorithm is shown to accelerate second- (MC-MP2) and third-order Monte Carlo many-body perturbation (MC-MP3) calculations by up to 222% and 38%, respectively.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance evaluation of cosmic ray muon trajectory estimation algorithms

Muons, being elementary particles with minimal interaction with nuclear materials and abundant at sea level, have sparked interest in utilizing them for imaging various applications, such as mining [Borselli et al., Sci. Rep. 12, 22329 (2022)], volcano imaging [Nagamine et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A, 356, 585(1995)], and underground tunnel detection [Guardincerri et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 2133 (2017)]. Recently, their use in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification has gained attention, particularly in cargo screening for nuclear waste smuggling [Baesso et al., J. Instrum. 9, C10041 (2014)], source localization [L. J. Schultz et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A 519, 687 (2004)], and locating nuclear fuel debris in reactors [Borozdin et al., Phys. Rev. Let. 109, 152501 (2012)]. However, the resolution of muon image reconstruction techniques is limited due to multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) within the target object. To achieve robust muon tomography, it is crucial to develop efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms that can model the MCS process accurately and estimate the most probable trajectory of muons as they pass through the target object. To address this limitation, in this study, a novel algorithmic approach utilizing the Bayesian probability theory and Gaussian approximation of MCS is chosen. Different energy levels, materials, and target sizes were considered in the evaluations. The results demonstrate that the Generalized Muon Trajectory Estimation (GMTE) algorithm offers significant improvements over currently used algorithms. Across all test scenarios, the GMTE algorithm demonstrated ~50% and 38% increase in precision compared to Straight Line Path (SLP) and Point of Closest Approach (PoCA) algorithms, respectively. Furthermore, it exhibited 10%–35% and 10%–15% increases in muon flux utilization for high and medium Z materials, respectively, compared to the PoCA algorithm. In conclusion, the extensive simulations confirm the enhanced performance and efficiency of the GMTE algorithm, offering improved resolution and reduced measurement time for cosmic ray muon imaging compared to the current SLP and PoCA algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Error Bounds for Low-Rank Tensor Decompositions Used in Large-Scale Data Analysis Applications (LDRD Final Report)

This report documents a research project on analyzing low-rank tensor models for data analysis that took place at Sandia National Laboratories from October 2023–September 2025. The focus of this work was to extend theoretical frameworks from statistics and probability theory for use with models for scalar, vector, and matrix data to models with tensor, or general multi-dimensional array, data. Through this work, we have provided a new set of tools for bounding errors on low-rank tensor models of both complete and sampled data. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In Section 1, we describe the proposed work at the start of the project. Section 2 describes the research advances made as part of the project. Other research contributions in the form of conference presentations and software development is provided in Section 3. Workforce development at Sandia and Florida Atlantic University (via a subcontract on this project) is provided in Section 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Mathematical techniques for estimating operational readiness of complex systems

Development of methods for predicting operational readiness of complex systems based on probability theory is discussed. Operational readiness of systems is defined and mathematical relationships involved in determining readiness are presented. Example of reliability engineering and quality control is included.

Jacquier, I. D.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The probabilistic structure of planetary contamination models

The analytical basis for planetary quarantine standards and procedures is presented. The heirarchy of planetary quarantine decisions is explained and emphasis is placed on the determination of mission specifications to include sterilization. The influence of the Sagan-Coleman probabilistic model of planetary contamination on current standards and procedures is analyzed. A classical problem in probability theory which provides a close conceptual parallel to the type of dependence present in the contamination problem is presented.

Harrison, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Pattern recognition algorithm using temporal data

The value of a previously classified image is discussed with the use of spectral and temporal information. A probability theory is presented of a signal X, belonging to class pi sub i.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1976

Rationale for structural inspections

The methods developed to predict the reliability of aircraft structures depend upon inspection effectiveness which, in turn, depends upon structural complexity, quality, and the percentage of the structure inspected. Reliability can be enhanced by choosing materials properly, designing damage-tolerant structures, and increasing inspection frequency. And, for fleet operations, costs can be minimized through proper inspection schedules, and enhanced reliability can be compatible with minimum cost. The methods are derived from a combination of probability theory and engineering equations. A discussion of these methods is presented.

Davidson, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The reality of comet groups and pairs

Although the common genetic origin of the Kreutz family of sun-grazing comets has generally been accepted, there remains uncertainty with regard to genetic identity among other groups of comets whose orbital elements are nearly alike. Porter (1952) has listed a number of such groups, and Opik (1971) has made a statistical study of the orbits of 472 comets with aphelion distances beyond Saturn. Opik lists 97 groups that show similarities among their three angular elements, calculates an overall probability of some 10 to the -39th power that these similarities could have occurred by chance, and thus concludes that 60% or more of such comets fall into genetic groups containing from two to seven members. This paper explores the statistical reality of Opik's groups utilizing the Monte Carlo method of statistics as well as ordinary probability theory. The conclusion is reached that except for a few pairs, the similarity among orbital elements within the groups is no greater than random expectation.

Whipple, F. L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Extending radiative transfer models by use of Bayes rule

This paper presents a procedure that extends some existing radiative transfer modeling techniques to problems in atmospheric science where curvature and layering of the medium and dynamic range and angular resolution of the signal are important. Example problems include twilight and limb scan simulations. Techniques that are extended include successive orders of scattering, matrix operator, doubling, Gauss-Seidel iteration, discrete ordinates and spherical harmonics. The procedure for extending them is based on Bayes' rule from probability theory.

Whitney, C.↗