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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The APOGEE value-added catalogue of Galactic globular cluster stars

ABSTRACT We introduce the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)/ Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) value-added catalogue of Galactic globular cluster (GC) stars. The catalogue is the result of a critical search of the APOGEE Data Release 17 (DR17) catalogue for candidate members of all known Galactic GCs. Candidate members are assigned to various GCs on the basis of position in the sky, proper motion, and radial velocity. The catalogue contains a total of 7737 entries for 6422 unique stars associated with 72 Galactic GCs. Full APOGEE DR17 information is provided, including radial velocities and abundances for up to 20 elements. Membership probabilities estimated on the basis of precision radial velocities are made available. Comparisons with chemical compositions derived from the GALactic Archaeology with HERMES (GALAH) survey, as well as optical values from the literature, show good agreement. This catalogue represents a significant increase in the public data base of GC star chemical compositions and kinematics, providing a massive homogeneous data set that will enable a variety of studies. The catalogue in fits format is available for public download from the SDSS-IV DR17 value-added catalogue website.

Schiavon, Ricardo P. (ORCID:0000000222440897)↗
DOE OSTI2022

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Abstract Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least‐cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid‐network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest‐cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non‐point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non‐point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.

Chamberlin, Catherine↗
DOE OSTI2024

Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy imaging of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma tissues

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) ranks among the malignancies with the highest fatality and morbidity rates. This is predominantly attributable to an absence of understanding the intricate and diverse microenvironment of the tumor. We use terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) imaging in transmission geometry to probe ex-vivo the heterogenous microenvironment of the genetically modified murine PDAC tissue that closely resembles the PDAC heterogeneity in human malignancy. We introduced a maximum a-posteriori probability estimation algorithm to objectively the tumor’s heterogenous microenvironment using the average values of refractive index and absorption coefficient within the useable terahertz bandwidth as imaging markers. Furthermore, direct comparison of stained histopathologic images and the refractive index and the absorption coefficient high-resolution, two dimensional maps of the same PDAC samples confirms the high potential of the THz-TDS method for tumor tissue characterization.

absorption↗
DOE OSTI2023

Space Situational Awareness for Python

SSAPy is a python package allowing for fast and precise orbital modeling. SSAPy is designed with speed and accuracy in mind and offers the following capabilities: - A variety of integrators, including Runge-Kutta, SciPy, SGP4, etc. - Customizable force propagation models, including a variety of Earth gravity models, lunar gravity, radiation pressure, etc. - Multiple-hypothesis tracking (MHT) UCT linker - Vectorized computations - Short arc probabilistic orbit determination - Conjunction probability estimation - Uncertainty quantification - Monte Carlo data fusion - Support for multiple coordinate frames (with coordinate frame conversions)

Schlafly, Edward↗
DOE OSTI2025

JGI-Trichoderma v1.0

There is a series of Python and bash scripts to parse genomics datasets used to evaluate the coevolution of gene families and the feature importance of gene families using an SVM classifier. - Cover analysis: takes a list of single-copy genes in a set of genomes, aligns and builds the gene trees to determine if two gene families have a signature of covariation with one another. It parses the files to run phykit cover script described here: https://jlsteenwyk.com/PhyKIT/usage/index.html - SVM-classifier: This Python script is an SVM-based genomic classifier designed for biological data analysis. It combines machine learning with feature selection to identify important genomic markers and classify biological samples. Core Functionality: The script uses Support Vector Machines from scikit-learn to classify genomic data, incorporating SelectKBest for automated feature selection and leave-one-out cross-validation for performance assessment. It operates in multiple modes: feature ranking, optimal combination discovery, and sample prediction. Primary Applications: Genomic sample classification and biomarker discovery Feature importance analysis in high-dimensional biological datasets Prediction of sample categories based on genomic profiles Research applications requiring robust classification of biological data Key Advantages: High-dimensional handling: SVMs excel with genomic data's typical high feature-to-sample ratios Integrated feature selection: Reduces noise and computational overhead while identifying key markers Probability estimation: Provides confidence scores essential for biological interpretation Validation robustness: Leave-one-out cross-validation ensures reliable performance metrics Operational flexibility: Multiple analysis modes support different research phases from exploration to prediction

Stecca Steindorff, Andrei [Lawrence Berkeley Natio↗
DOE OSTI2023

Galaxy Spin Classification. I. Z-wise versus S-wise Spirals with the Chirality Equivariant Residual Network

The angular momentum of galaxies (galaxy spin) contains rich information about the initial condition of the universe, yet it is challenging to efficiently measure the spin direction for the tremendous amount of galaxies that are being mapped by ongoing and forthcoming cosmological surveys. We present a machine-learning-based classifier for the Z-wise versus S-wise spirals, which can help to break the degeneracy in the galaxy spin direction measurement. The proposed chirality equivariant residual network (CE-ResNet) is manifestly equivariant under a reflection of the input image, which guarantees that there is no inherent asymmetry between the Z-wise and S-wise probability estimators. We train the model with Sloan Digital Sky Survey images, with the training labels given by the Galaxy Zoo 1 project. A combination of data augmentation techniques is used during the training, making the model more robust to be applied to other surveys. We find an ~30% increase in both types of spirals when Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) images are used for classification, due to the better imaging quality of DESI. We verify that the ~7σ difference between the numbers of Z-wise and S-wise spirals is due to human bias, since the discrepancy drops to <1.8σ with our CE-ResNet classification results. We discuss the potential systematics relevant to future cosmological applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Bird Strike Likelihood to Refine Bird Strike Risk Models

In its most basic form, bird strike risk is comprised of a frequency component that reflects the likelihood of a collision and a severity component that reflects the cost (monetary or otherwise) of the incident. The bird strike risk model currently used by United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) Wildlife Services to evaluate the risk posed by individual bird species at airports and establish priorities for management was developed in 2018. The model uses airport-specific data on the number of reported strikes for a species recorded in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s National Wildlife Strike Database as a measure of frequency and the species’ relative hazard score as a measure of severity. The model was tested against independent data, found to perform well overall, and is being implemented widely across the United States. However, the model has limitations, including that species known to pose risk to aircraft locally, but not present in the strike record database, are not reflected as a major component of risk. Standard bird survey methodology commonly used at airports (e.g. point counts or transects) potentially can be used to complement wildlife strike records to calculate frequency or relative abundance of species. However, these methods generally focus on airport-wide population estimation and often ignore vital information that contributes to the true likelihood of a strike, such as use of runway protection zones and other critical areas, and spatial and temporal overlap with departing or approaching aircraft. As such, a more detailed understanding of space use by birds across landcovers and population fluctuations across the year is needed to accurately estimate the likelihood of bird strikes at airports. In this manuscript, we will review the extant risk model, including a discussion on its limitations. We then discuss approaches for refining our understanding of strike likelihood and briefly touch on needs for estimating probability of strike severity (cost).

bird strike, aircraft collision, damage by wildlif↗
DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uniform-in-phase-space data selection with iterative normalizing flows

Improvements in computational and experimental capabilities are rapidly increasing the amount of scientific data that are routinely generated. In applications that are constrained by memory and computational intensity, excessively large datasets may hinder scientific discovery, making data reduction a critical component of data-driven methods. Datasets are growing in two directions: the number of data points and their dimensionality. Whereas dimension reduction typically aims at describing each data sample on lower-dimensional space, the focus here is on reducing the number of data points. A strategy is proposed to select data points such that they uniformly span the phase-space of the data. The algorithm proposed relies on estimating the probability map of the data and using it to construct an acceptance probability. An iterative method is used to accurately estimate the probability of the rare data points when only a small subset of the dataset is used to construct the probability map. Instead of binning the phase-space to estimate the probability map, its functional form is approximated with a normalizing flow. Therefore, the method naturally extends to high-dimensional datasets. The proposed framework is demonstrated as a viable pathway to enable data-efficient machine learning when abundant data are available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rare Event Sampling Improves Mercury Instability Statistics

Due to the chaotic nature of planetary dynamics, there is a non-zero probability that Mercury's orbit will become unstable in the future. Previous efforts have estimated the probability of this happening between 3 and 5 billion years in the future using a large number of direct numerical simulations with an N-body code, but were not able to obtain accurate estimates before 3 billion years in the future because Mercury instability events are too rare. In this paper we use a new rare-event sampling technique, Quantile Diffusion Monte Carlo (QDMC), to estimate that the probability of a Mercury instability event in the next 2 billion years is approximately 10 –4 in the REBOUND N-body code. We show that QDMC provides unbiased probability estimates at a computational cost of up to 100 times less than direct numerical simulation. QDMC is easy to implement and could be applied to many problems in planetary dynamics in which it is necessary to estimate the probability of a rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying Uncertainty in All-to-All Estimates of Space Object Conjunction Probabilities using U-Statistics

Predicting space object conjunctions is inherently probabilistic due to initial state and orbit model uncertainty. A commonly considered Monte Carlo estimator of the conjunction probability is the ’all-to-all’ estimator. Given independent random samples of the trajectories of both objects, the estimator is the percentage of all pairs of trajectories that result in a conjunction. Intuitively, the all-to-all estimator is the best possible estimator of the conjunction probability since it considers all pairs of Monte Carlo samples. However, its distribution is not available in closed-form, which limits its use in practice and makes this intuition difficult to make rigorous. In this paper, the all-to-all estimator is identified as a U-statistic, which implies that it has several favorable properties. Specifically, the estimator is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the conjunction probability and is asymptotically Gaussian distributed. An approximate confidence interval for the conjunction probability is obtained from an estimate of the asymptotic Gaussian distribution. We show how to efficiently compute the confidence interval and demonstrate that the interval has the nominal coverage level. The confidence intervals are also seen to be narrower than those based on the commonly-used each-to-each estimator. Furthermore, the all-to-all estimator is shown to allow different Monte Carlo sample sizes, whereas the each-to-each estimator requires equal sample sizes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Trade Atlas 2016-2020

Building on prior work developing a Strategic Trade Atlas promoting understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, a Nuclear Trade Atlas was developed based on publicly available trade data. The Nuclear Trade Atlas examines trade patterns and trends for seventeen commodities based on a two-step assessment of the trade’s nuclear relevance: first estimating the probability that trade classified under a given Harmonized System (HS) code represents a specific commodity included in the export control lists of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and second estimating the probability that the listed, often dual-use, commodity would be indicative of nuclear use. These estimates combine to provide a measure of the likelihood trade classified under a given HS code may be nuclear relevant. By exclusively focusing on the HS codes most highly ranked by this measure, the resulting data visualizations comprising the Nuclear Trade Atlas provide those responsible for regulating or monitoring nuclear trade greater understanding of relevant global trading patterns and trends. The Atlas includes both commodity- and country-based views of nuclear trade. It is published as a book and as an interactive tool. Besides trade data, the interactive Atlas also includes data about countries’ non-proliferation commitments, allowing users to take this information into consideration while analyzing specific trade flows.

strategic trade, world customs organization, trade↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

ProZES: the methodology and software tool for assessment of assigned share of radiation in probability of cancer occurrence

ProZES is a software tool for estimating the probability that a given cancer was caused by preceding exposure to ionising radiation. ProZES calculates this probability, the assigned share, for solid cancers and hematopoietic malignant diseases, in cases of exposures to low-LET radiation, and for lung cancer in cases of exposure to radon. User-specified inputs include birth year, sex, type of diagnosed cancer, age at diagnosis, radiation exposure history and characteristics, and smoking behaviour for lung cancer. Cancer risk models are an essential part of ProZES. Linking disease and exposure to radiation involves several methodological aspects, and assessment of uncertainties received particular attention. ProZES systematically uses the principle of multi-model inference. Models of radiation risk were either newly developed or critically re-evaluated for ProZES, including dedicated models for frequent types of cancer and, for less common diseases, models for groups of functionally similar cancer sites. The low-LET models originate mostly from the study of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Risks predicted by these models are adjusted to be applicable to the population of Germany and to different time periods. Adjustment factors for low dose rates and for a reduced risk during the minimum latency time between exposure and cancer are also applied. The development of the methodology and software was initiated and supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) taking up advice by the German Commission on Radiological Protection (SSK, Strahlenschutzkommission). These provide the scientific basis to support decision making on compensation claims regarding malignancies following occupational exposure to radiation in Germany.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic locked mode predictor in the presence of a resistive wall and finite island saturation in tokamaks

We present a framework for estimating the probability of locking to an error field in a rotating tokamak plasma. This leverages machine learning methods trained on data from a mode-locking model, including an error field, resistive magnetohydrodynamics modeling of the plasma, a resistive wall, and an external vacuum region, leading to a fifth-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) system. It is an extension of the model without a resistive wall introduced by Akçay et al. [Phys. Plasmas 28, 082106 (2021)]. Tearing mode saturation by a finite island width is also modeled. We vary three pairs of control parameters in our studies: the momentum source plus either the error field, the tearing stability index, or the island saturation term. The order parameters are the time-asymptotic values of the five ODE variables. Normalization of them reduces the system to 2D and facilitates the classification into locked (L) or unlocked (U) states, as illustrated by Akçay et al., [Phys. Plasmas 28, 082106 (2021)]. This classification splits the control space into three regions: L̂, with only L states; Û, with only U states; and a hysteresis (hysteretic) region Ĥ, with both L and U states. In regions L̂ and Û, the cubic equation of torque balance yields one real root. Region Ĥ has three roots, allowing bifurcations between the L and U states. The classification of the ODE solutions into L/U is used to estimate the locking probability, conditional on the pair of the control parameters, using a neural network. We also explore estimating the locking probability for a sparse dataset, using a transfer learning method based on a dense model dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Traditional Registrational Trial End Points: Development and Application of a Desirability of Outcome Ranking End Point for Complicated Urinary Tract Infection Clinical Trials

Abstract Background Traditional end points used in registrational randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) often do not allow for complete interpretation of the full range of potential clinical outcomes. Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials that incorporates benefits and risks of novel treatment strategies and provides a global assessment of patient experience. Methods Through a multidisciplinary committee of experts in infectious diseases, clinical trial design, drug regulation, and patient experience, we developed a DOOR end point for infectious disease syndromes and demonstrated how this could be applied to 3 registrational drug trials (ZEUS, APEKS-cUTI, and DORI-05) for complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs). ZEUS compared fosfomycin to piperacillin/tazobactam, APEKS-cUTI compared cefiderocol to imipenem, and DORI-05 compared doripenem to levofloxacin. Using DOOR, we estimated the probability of a more desirable outcome with each investigational antibacterial drug. Results In each RCT, the DOOR distribution was similar and the probability that a patient in the investigational arm would have a more desirable outcome than a patient in the control arm had a 95% confidence interval containing 50%, indicating no significant difference between treatment arms. DOOR facilitated improved understanding of potential trade-offs between clinical efficacy and safety. Partial credit and subgroup analyses also highlight unique attributes of DOOR. Conclusions DOOR can effectively be used in registrational cUTI trials. The DOOR end point presented here can be adapted for other infectious disease syndromes and prospectively incorporated into future clinical trials.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗