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Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize

Cirrus cloud spectra and layers observed during the FIRE and GASP projects

A general characterization is developed for cirrus clouds in terms of their spectra, shapes, optical thicknesses, and radiative properties for use in numerical models. Data sets from the Global Atmospheric Sampling Project (GASP) of the upper troposphere and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) are combined and analyzed to study general traits of cirrus clouds. A definition is given for 2D turbulence, and the GASP and FIRE data sets are examined with respect to cirrus layers and entrainment and to dominant turbulent scales. The approach employs conditional sampling in cloudy and clear air, power-spectral analysis, and mixing-line-type diagrams. Evidence is given for a well mixed cloud deck and for the tendency of cirrus to be formed in multilayer structures. The results are of use in mesoscale and global circulation models which predict cirrus, in small-scale cirrus modeling, and in studying the role of gravity waves in the horizontal structure of upper tropospheric clouds.

Flatau, Piotr J.

Preliminary Characterization Results from the DebriSat Project

The DebriSat project is a continuing effort sponsored by NASA and DoD to update existing break-up models using data obtained from two separate hypervelocity impact tests used to simulate on-orbit collisions. To protect the fragments resulting from the impact tests, "soft-catch" arenas made of polyurethane foam panels were utilized. After each impact test, the test chamber was cleaned and debris resulting from the catastrophic demise of the test article were collected and shipped to the University of Florida for post-impact processing. The post-impact processing activities include collecting, characterizing, and cataloging of the fragments. Since the impact tests, a team of students has been working to characterize the fragments in terms of their mass, size, shape, color and material content. The focus of the 20 months since the impact tests has been on the collection of 2 millimeters- and larger fragments resulting from impact test on the 56 kilogram-representative LEO (Low Earth Orbit) satellite referred to as DebriSat. To date we have recovered in excess of 115,000 fragments, 30,000 more than the prediction of 85,000 fragments from the existing model. We continue to collect fragments but have transitioned to the characterization phase of the post-impact activities. Since the start of the characterization phase, the focus has been to utilize automation to (i) expedite fragment characterization process and (ii) minimize human-in-the- loop. We have developed and implemented such automated processes; e.g., we have automated the data entry process to reduce operator errors during transcription of the measurement data. However, at all steps of the process, there is human oversight to ensure the integrity of the data. Additionally, we have developed and implemented repeatability and reproducibility tests to ensure that the instrumentation used in the characterization process is accurate and properly calibrated. In this paper, the implemented processes are described and preliminary results presented. Additionally, lessons learned from the implemented automations and their impacts on the integrity of the results are discussed.

Rivero, M.

Mars Sample Return, Sample Retrieval Lander, Reaction Control System Jet Interaction Supersonic Wind Tunnel Test Overview with CFD Predictions

NASA's Mars Sample Return campaign will be launching several missions over the next decade that will work together to return rock samples from Mars back to Earth. The Sample Retrieval Lander (SRL) will deliver the Mars Ascent Vehicle and fetch rover to the surface of Mars in 2006. Rock samples collected by the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover, landing in early 2021, will be loaded on the the ascent vehicle to be launched into Mars orbit for retrieval by yet another spacecraft. The Sample Retrieval Lander will be a blunt entry capsule similar to past Mars entry vehicles like Mars Science Laboratory and Viking. The vehicle will fly a guided entry, using a small lift vector produced by a non-zero trim angle of attack to eliminate downrange and crossrange position errors at the point of parachute deploy. This energy and heading management is achieved with a reaction control system (RCS) that directs the bank angle of the vehicle and also minimizes unwanted capsule dynamics. The reaction control system and control design is based on the Mars Science Laboratory and Mars 2020 RCS systems. However, due to packaging constraints, the backshell of this new entry vehicle has a different geometry than those earlier designs. To certify the RCS system for flight the project must characterize the jet plume interactions with the capsule backshell that could impair or significantly augment the RCS control authority. This characterization will be done through a combination of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and wind tunnel test. Two candidate arrangements of the RCS jets have been identified for the SRL vehicle and are currently under evaluation before final selection. The aero/RCS plume interactions of these candidate configurations have been measured in a supersonic wind tunnel test in NASA Langley's Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The test was conducted in the fall of 2020 and data is currently being reduced. An overview of the candidate RCS configurations are presented here with an overview of the wind tunnel model design, jet scaling and scaled nozzle design, and the test matrix. Preliminary CFD runs are presented with an assessment of the predicted plumes and their interaction with the wake flow of the vehicle. The predicted effects of the model sting is provided as well. This high fidelity wind tunnel test is being conducted much earlier in the SRL project than would normally be done. The test was funded as part of a CFD evaluation task funded by NASA's Aerosciences Evaluation and Test Capabilities Project. The objective of the evaluation task was to compare the ability of CFD to predict complex flows with data that can be measured in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. RCS Jet interactions were selected as a type of complex flow that is important to NASA missions. In addition to providing useful data to the SRL project, there was added emphasis on quantifying the accuracy of the CFD predictions and wind tunnel test data. An overview of the uncertainty quantification methodologies for computational and experimental portions of this test is presented.

blunt body

File-System Workload on a Scientific Multiprocessor

Many scientific applications have intense computational and I/O requirements. Although multiprocessors have permitted astounding increases in computational performance, the formidable I/O needs of these applications cannot be met by current multiprocessors a their I/O subsystems. To prevent I/O subsystems from forever bottlenecking multiprocessors and limiting the range of feasible applications, new I/O subsystems must be designed. The successful design of computer systems (both hardware and software) depends on a thorough understanding of their intended use. A system designer optimizes the policies and mechanisms for the cases expected to most common in the user's workload. In the case of multiprocessor file systems, however, designers have been forced to build file systems based only on speculation about how they would be used, extrapolating from file-system characterizations of general-purpose workloads on uniprocessor and distributed systems or scientific workloads on vector supercomputers (see sidebar on related work). To help these system designers, in June 1993 we began the Charisma Project, so named because the project sought to characterize 1/0 in scientific multiprocessor applications from a variety of production parallel computing platforms and sites. The Charisma project is unique in recording individual read and write requests-in live, multiprogramming, parallel workloads (rather than from selected or nonparallel applications). In this article, we present the first results from the project: a characterization of the file-system workload an iPSC/860 multiprocessor running production, parallel scientific applications at NASA's Ames Research Center.

Kotz, David

Baseline tests of the C. H. Waterman DAF electric passenger vehicle

An electric vehicle was tested as part of an Energy Research Development Administration (ERDA) project to characterize the state-of-the-art of electric vehicles. The Waterman vehicle performance test results are presented in this report. The vehicle is a converted four-passenger DAF 46 sedan. It is powered by sixteen 6-volt traction batteries through a three-step contactor controller actuated by a foot throttle to change the voltage applied to the 6.7 kW motor. The braking system is a conventional hydraulic braking system.

Sargent, N. B.

Baseline tests of the Volkswagen transporter electric delivery van

The Volkswagen Transporter, an electric delivery van, was tested as part of an Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) project to characterize the state of the art of electric vehicles. The Volkswagen Transporter is a standard Volkswagen van that has been converted to an electric vehicle. It is powered by a 144-volt traction battery. A direct current (dc) chopper controller, actuated by a conventional accelerator pedal, regulates the voltage or power applied to the 16-kilowatt (21-hp) motor. The braking system uses conventional hydraulic braking in combination with an electric regenerative braking system. The Volkswagen vehicle performance test results are presented.

Soltis, R. F.

The detection and extraction of interleaved code segments

This project is concerned with a specific difficulty that arises when trying to understand and modify computer programs. In particular, it is concerned with the phenomenon of 'interleaving' in which one section of a program accomplishes several purposes, and disentangling the code responsible for each purposes is difficult. Unraveling interleaved code involves discovering the purpose of each strand of computation, as well as understanding why the programmer decided to interleave the strands. Increased understanding improve the productivity and quality of software maintenance, enhancement, and documentation activities. It is the goal of the project to characterize the phenomenon of interleaving as a prerequisite for building tools to detect and extract interleaved code fragments.

Rugaber, Spencer

Communication Problems in Requirements Engineering: A Field Study

The requirements engineering phase of software development projects is characterized by the intensity and importance of communication activities. During this phase, the various stakeholders must be able to communicate their requirements to the analysts, and the analysts need to be able to communicate the specifications they generate back to the stakeholders for validation. This paper describes a field investigation into the problems of communication between disparate communities involved in the requirements specification activities. The results of this study are discussed in terms of their relation to three major communication barriers: (1) ineffectiveness of the current communication channels; (2) restrictions on expressiveness imposed by notations; and (3) social and organizational barriers. The results confirm that organizational and social issues have great influence on the effectiveness of communication. They also show that in general, end-users find the notations used by software practitioners to model their requirements difficult to understand and validate.

Al-Rawas, Amer

Development of a Ti:Al2O3 Laser for Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere

During the past year, the following research has been conducted on the Titanium Sapphire Laser system development project: (1) Characterization of the laser system; (2) Gain measurement; (3) Second and third harmonic generation; (4) Laser temporal characteristics; and (5) Laser modeling. Figures and descriptions of the topics above are presented.

Elsayed-Ali, Hani

ZnSe Window Layers for GaAs and GaInP2 Solar Cells

This report concerns studies of the use of n-type ZnSe as a window layer for n/p GaAs and GaInP2 solar cells. Emphasis was placed in this phase of the project on characterizing the interface between n-type ZnSe films grown on epi-GaAs films grown onto single crystal GaAs. Epi-GaAs and heteroepitaxial ZnSe films were grown by MOCVD with a Spire 50OXT Reactor. After growing epitaxial GaAs films on single crystal GaAs wafers, well-oriented crystalline ZnSe films were grown by MOCVD. ZnSe films were grown with substrate temperatures ranging from 250 C to 450 C. Photoluminescence studies carried out by researchers at NASA Lewis determined that the surface recombination velocity at a GaAs surface was significantly reduced after the deposition of a heteroepitaxial layer of ZnSe. The optimum temperature for ZnSe deposition appears to be on the order of 350 C.

Olsen, Larry C.

Continued Investigations of the Accretion History of Extraterrestrial Matter over Geologic Time

This grant supported our ongoing project to characterize the accretion rate of interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) to Earth over geologic time using He-3 as a tracer. IDPs are derived from collisions in the asteroid belt and from disaggregation of active comets. Owing to their small size (few to few hundred micrometers diameter) these particles spiral into the sun under Poynting-Robertson drag typically in less than a few tens of kyrs. Thus IDPs must be continually resupplied to the zodiacal cloud, and because the processes of IDP production are likely to be sporadic, time variation in the IDP accretion rate to Earth is likely to be time-varying. For example, major asteroidal collisions and comet showers should greatly enhance the IDP accretion rate. Our ultimate objective (still ongoing) is to document this time variance so as to better understand the history of the solar system, the source of IDPs accreting to Earth, and the details of the mechanism by which particles are captured by Earth. To document variations in IDP accretion rate through time we use He-3 as a tracer. This isotope is in extremely low abundance in terrestrial matter, but IDPs have very high concentrations of He-3 from implantation of solar wind ions. By measuring He-3 in seafloor sediments, we can estimate the IDP accretion rate for at least the last few hundred Myrs. Under an earlier NASA grant we identified the existence of a large increase in He-3 flux in the Late Eocene (35 Myr ago), coincident with the two largest impact craters of the Cenozoic Era. The simplest interpretation of this observation is the occurrence of a shower of long period comets at that time, simultaneously increasing the impact cratering probability and accretion rate of IDPs to Earth (Farley et al., 1998). Comet showers produced by stellar perturbation of the Oort cloud should be fairly common in the geologic record, so this is not an unreasonable interpretation of our observations.

Farley, Kenneth

Extravehicular Activity Testing in Analog Environments: Evaluating the Effects of Center of Gravity and Environment on Human Performance

The EVA Physiology, Systems and Performance (EPSP) Project is performing tests in different analog environments to understand human performance during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) with the aim of developing more safe and efficient systems for lunar exploration missions and the Constellation Program. The project is characterizing human EVA performance in studies using several test beds, including the underwater NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) and Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) facilities, JSC fs Partial Gravity Simulator (POGO), and the NASA Reduced Gravity Office (RGO) parabolic flight aircraft. Using these varied testing environments, NASA can gain a more complete understanding of human performance issues related to EVA and the limitations of each testing environment. Tests are focused on identifying and understanding the EVA system factors that affect human performance such as center of gravity (CG), inertial mass, ground reaction forces (GRF), suit weight, and suit pressure. The test results will lead to the development of lunar EVA systems operations concepts and design requirements that optimize human performance and exploration capabilities. METHODS: Tests were conducted in the NBL and during NEEMO missions in the NOAA Aquarius Habitat. A reconfigurable back pack with repositionable mass was used to simulate Perfect, Low, Forward, High, Aft and NASA Baseline CG locations. Subjects performed simulated exploration tasks that included ambulation, kneel and recovery, rock pick-up, and shoveling. Testing using POGO, that simulates partial gravity via pneumatic weight offload system and a similar reconfigurable rig, is underway for a subset of the same tasks. Additionally, test trials are being performed on the RGO parabolic flight aircraft. Subject performance was assessed using a modified Cooper-Harper scale to assess operator compensation required to achieve desired performance. All CG locations are based on the assumption of a standardized 6 ft 180 lb subject. RESULTS: The modified Cooper-Harper Scale assesses desired task performance described as performance in a reduced gravity environment as compared to a 1G environment. Modified Cooper-Harper ratings of . 3 indicate no improvements are needed, ratings of 4-6 indicate improvements are desirable, and ratings . 7 indicate improvements are mandatory. DISCUSSION: Differences were noted in suited CH results based on environment at the same CG and suit pressure. Additionally, results suggest that CG location affects unsuited human performance. Subjects preferred locations near their natural CG over those that are high, aft, or a combination of high and aft. Further testing and analyses are planned to compare these unsuited results to suited performance.

Gernhardt, M.L.

NASA-DoD Lead-Free Electronics Project

This slide presentation reviews the current state of the lead-free electronics project. It characterizes the test articles, which were built with lead-free solder and lead-free component finishes. The tests performed and reported on are: thermal cycling, combine environments testing, mechanical shock testing, vibration testing and drop testing.

Kessel, Kurt

FTIR Analysis of Aerogel Keystones from the Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector: Assessment of Terrestrial Organic Contamination and X-Ray Microprobe Beam Damage

The Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector (SIDC) was intended to capture and return contemporary interstellar dust. The approx.0.1 sq m collector was composed of aerogel tiles (85% of the collecting area) and aluminum foils and was exposed to the interstellar dust stream for a total exposure factor of 20 sq m day. The Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination (ISPE) is a consortium-based project to characterize the collection using nondestructive techniques. Sandford et al. recently assessed numerous potential sources of organic contaminants in the Stardust cometary collector. These contaminants could greatly complicate the analysis and interperetation of any organics associated with interstellar dust, particularly because signals from these particles are expected to be exceedingly small. Here, we present a summary of FTIR analyses of over 20 aerogel keystones, many of which contained candidates for interstellar dust.

Zolensky, M. E.

Four Interstellar Dust Candidates from the Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector

In January 2006, the Stardust sample return capsule returned to Earth bearing the first solid samples from a primitive solar system body, Comet 81P/Wild2, and a collector dedicated to the capture and return of contemporary interstellar dust. Both collectors were approx. 0.1 sq m in area and were composed of aerogel tiles (85% of the collecting area) and aluminum foils. The Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector (SIDC) was exposed to the interstellar dust stream for a total exposure factor of 20 sq m/day. The Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination (ISPE) is a consortium-based project to characterize the collection using nondestructive techniques. The goals and restrictions of the ISPE are described . A summary of analytical techniques is described.

Westphal, A. J.

Additive Manufacturing of Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion Components

NASA is currently developing Additive Manufacturing (AM) technologies and design tools aimed at reducing the costs and manufacturing time of regeneratively cooled rocket engine components. These Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion (LCUSP) tasks are funded through NASA's Game Changing Development Program in the Space Technology Mission Directorate. The LCUSP project will develop a copper alloy additive manufacturing design process and develop and optimize the Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) manufacturing process to direct deposit a nickel alloy structural jacket and manifolds onto an SLM manufactured GRCop chamber and Ni-alloy nozzle. In order to develop these processes, the project will characterize both the microstructural and mechanical properties of the SLMproduced GRCop-84, and will explore and document novel design techniques specific to AM combustion devices components. These manufacturing technologies will be used to build a 25K-class regenerative chamber and nozzle (to be used with tested DMLS injectors) that will be tested individually and as a system in hot fire tests to demonstrate the applicability of the technologies. These tasks are expected to bring costs and manufacturing time down as spacecraft propulsion systems typically comprise more than 70% of the total vehicle cost and account for a significant portion of the development schedule. Additionally, high pressure/high temperature combustion chambers and nozzles must be regeneratively cooled to survive their operating environment, causing their design to be time consuming and costly to build. LCUSP presents an opportunity to develop and demonstrate a process that can infuse these technologies into industry, build competition, and drive down costs of future engines.

Protz, Christopher

Loftid Aeroshell Engineering Development Unit Structural Testing

NASA’s Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology was selected for a Technology Demonstration Mission under the Space Technology Mission Directorate in 2017. HIAD is an enabling technology that can facilitate atmospheric entry of heavy payloads to planets such as Earth and Mars using a deployable aeroshell. The deployable nature of the HIAD technology allows it to avoid the size constraints imposed on current rigid aeroshell entry systems. This enables use of larger aeroshells resulting in increased entry system performance (e.g. higher pay-load mass and/or volume, higher landing altitude at Mars). The Low Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) is currently scheduled for late-2021. LOFTID will be launched out of Vandenberg Air Force Base as a secondary payload on an Atlas V rocket. The flight test features a 6m diameter, 70-deg sphere-cone aeroshell and will provide invaluable high-energy orbital re-entry flight data. This data will be essential in supporting the HIAD team to mature the technology to diameters of 10m and greater. Aeroshells of this scale are applicable to potential near-term commercial applications and future NASA missions. Currently the LOFTID project has completed fabrication of the engineering design unit (EDU) inflatable structure (IS) and the flexible thermal protection system (F-TPS). These two components along with the rigid nose and center body comprise the HIAD aeroshell system. This EDU aeroshell is the precursor to the LOFTID aeroshell that will be used for flight. The EDU was built to verify the design given the subtle differences between the LOFTID aeroshell and past aeroshell designs that have been fabricated under the NASA HIAD project. To characterize the structural performance of the LOFTID aeroshell design, three structural tests will be performed. The first test to be conducted is static load testing, which will induce a uniform load across the forward surface of the aeroshell to simulate the expected pressure forces during atmospheric entry. The IS integrated with the rigid center body will first be tested alone to provide data for analytical model correlation, and then the F-TPS will be integrated for a second series of static load testing of the full aeroshell system. Instrumentation will be employed during the test series to measure component loads during testing, and a laser scanner will be used to generate a 3D map of the aeroshell surface to verify that the shape of the structure is acceptable at the simulated flight loads. After static load testing, pack and deployment testing will be conducted multiple times on the integrated system to demonstrate the aeroshell’s ability to fit within the required packed volume for the LOFTID mission without experiencing significant damage. Finally, the aeroshell will undergo modal testing to characterize its structural response. This presentation will discuss the setup and execution of each of the three tests that the EDU aeroshell will undergo. In addition, initial results of the testing will be presented outlining key findings as LOFTID moves for-ward with fabrication of the flight aeroshell.

Swanson, G. T.