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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Improving and testing machine learning methods for benchmarking soil carbon dynamics representation of land surface models

Representation of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon climate feedbacks. The magnitude of this uncertainty can be reduced by accurate representation of environmental controllers of SOC stocks in ESMs. In this study, we used data of environmental factors, field SOC observations, ESM projections and machine learning approaches to identify dominant environmental controllers of SOC stocks and derive functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks. Our derived functional relationships predicted SOC stocks with similar accuracy as the machine learning approach. We used the derived relationships to benchmark the coupled model intercomparison project phase six ESM representation of SOC stocks. We found divergent environmental control representation in ESMs in comparison to field observations. Representation of SOC in ESMs can be improved by including additional environmental factors and representing their functional relationships with SOC consistent with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Object Oriented Programming Systems (OOPS) and frame representations: An investigation of programming paradigms

The project was initiated to research Object Oriented Programming Systems (OOPS) and frame representation systems, their significance and applicability, and their implementation in or relationship to Ada. Object orientated is currently a very popular conceptual adjective. Object oriented programming, in particular, is promoted as a particularly productive approach to programming; an approach which maximizes opportunities for code reuse and lends itself to the definition of convenient and well-developed units. Such units are thus expected to be usable in a variety of situations, beyond the typical highly specific unit development of other approaches. Frame represenation systems share a common heritage and similar conceptual foundations. Together they represent a quickly emerging alternative approach to programming. The approach is to first define the terms, starting with relevant concepts and using these to put bounds on what is meant by OOPS and Frames. From this the possibilities were pursued to merge OOPS with Ada which will further elucidate the significant characteristics which make up this programming approach. Finally, some of the merits and demerits of OOPS were briefly considered as a way of addressing the applicability of OOPS to various programming tasks.

Auty, David↗
NASA NTRS2012

Projection of Stabilized Aerial Imagery Onto Digital Elevation Maps for Geo-Rectified and Jitter-Free Viewing

As imagery is collected from an airborne platform, an individual viewing the images wants to know from where on the Earth the images were collected. To do this, some information about the camera needs to be known, such as its position and orientation relative to the Earth. This can be provided by common inertial navigation systems (INS). Once the location of the camera is known, it is useful to project an image onto some representation of the Earth. Due to the non-smooth terrain of the Earth (mountains, valleys, etc.), this projection is highly non-linear. Thus, to ensure accurate projection, one needs to project onto a digital elevation map (DEM). This allows one to view the images overlaid onto a representation of the Earth. A code has been developed that takes an image, a model of the camera used to acquire that image, the pose of the camera during acquisition (as provided by an INS), and a DEM, and outputs an image that has been geo-rectified. The world coordinate of the bounds of the image are provided for viewing purposes. The code finds a mapping from points on the ground (DEM) to pixels in the image. By performing this process for all points on the ground, one can "paint" the ground with the image, effectively performing a projection of the image onto the ground. In order to make this process efficient, a method was developed for finding a region of interest (ROI) on the ground to where the image will project. This code is useful in any scenario involving an aerial imaging platform that moves and rotates over time. Many other applications are possible in processing aerial and satellite imagery.

Ansar, Adnan I.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating and Improving Convective Parameterization for GCMs Using ARM Observations. Final report

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period funded by the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. The general goal of the project is to improve the representation of atmospheric deep convection in global climate models. By using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations and a hierarchy of models from cloud-resolving to global climate models, we evaluated and improved many aspects of convection parameterization schemes, such as the trigger function for convection and closure condition to determine the amount of convection. We also incorporated the stochasticity of convection into a convection scheme. These improvements, when implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the DOE Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM), led to improved simulation of precipitation characteristics, including precipitation intensity, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and Madden-Julian oscillation. The project also improved the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds. It enables the interaction of cloud microphysics with aerosols in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Solar System Visualization (SSV) Project

The Solar System Visualization (SSV) project aims at enhancing scientific and public understanding through visual representations and modeling procedures. The SSV project's objectives are to (1) create new visualization technologies, (2) organize science observations and models, and (3) visualize science results and mission Plans. The SSV project currently supports the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) mission, the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), and Cassini. In support of the these missions, the SSV team has produced pan and zoom animations of large mosaics to reveal details of surface features and topography, created 3D animations of science instruments and procedures, formed 3-D anaglyphs from left and right stereo pairs, and animated registered multi-resolution mosaics to provide context for microscopic images.

Todd, Jessida L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the proper derivation of the Floquet-based quantum classical Liouville equation and surface hopping describing a molecule or material subject to an external field

We investigate different approaches to derive the proper Floquet-based quantum–classical Liouville equation (F-QCLE) for laser-driven electron-nuclear dynamics. The first approach projects the operator form of the standard QCLE onto the diabatic Floquet basis and then transforms to the adiabatic representation. The second approach directly projects the QCLE onto the Floquet adiabatic basis. Both approaches yield a form that is similar to the usual QCLE with two modifications: (1) The electronic degrees of freedom are expanded to infinite dimension and (2) the nuclear motion follows Floquet quasi-energy surfaces. However, the second approach includes an additional cross derivative force due to the dual dependence on time and nuclear motion of the Floquet adiabatic states. Our analysis and numerical tests indicate that this cross derivative force is a fictitious artifact, suggesting that one cannot safely exchange the order of Floquet state projection with adiabatic transformation. Our results are in accord with similar findings by Izmaylov et al., [J. Chem. Phys. 140, 084104 (2014)] who found that transforming to the adiabatic representation must always be the last operation applied, although now we have extended this result to a time-dependent Hamiltonian. Finally, this paper and the proper derivation of the F-QCLE should lay the basis for further improvements of Floquet surface hopping.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Protection and Validated Models to Enable Deployment of High Penetrations of Solar PV (PV-MOD)

The availability and validation of various PV models in commercial tools differ, with some models not yet thoroughly validated for advanced inverter functionalities and reliable performance under weak system conditions. Many existing models do not fully incorporate new inverter control functions, which can affect system stability. The increasing deployment of solar PV and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), including distributed energy resources (DERs), is influencing the reliable operation of protection schemes in distribution systems and microgrids. Emerging adaptive protection schemes (APS) offer new opportunities for protecting these systems during varying configurations and DER operating conditions, though their demonstration and validation remain limited. Adaptive protection schemes face similar challenges, as they are typically designed for specific configurations. There is a growing need for tools and methodologies to streamline the deployment of adaptive protection for safe and reliable DER integration. The project main objective was to develop and validate high-fidelity generic models of solar PV facilities for stability, protection, EMT, and QSTS analyses. This objective was achieved, and these models can now be integrated into commercial software tools, enabling utilities, vendors, and developers to study high-penetration PV systems more confidently. The project also demonstrated advanced applications of these models, including the design and deployment of adaptive protection schemes in high-penetration field applications and microgrids, supporting grid safety and reliability. Several milestones were reached by the end of the project. A sophisticated inverter test plan was developed, and inverters representative of the North American marketplace were selected. EPRI and NREL tested various inverters, conforming to IEEE standards. Improvements were made to existing generic models of IBR units, IBR plants, and aggregated feeders for various analyses. The first generic electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for a solar PV plant was developed, conforming to IEEE Std 2800™-2022 and validated against laboratory measurements of a 2.2 MVA large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) inverter. That model was then used to produce reference responses illustrating examples of validated and verified IBR plant models that pass or fail tests for technical minimum capability and performance as specified in the IEEE standard. The developed, tested, and validated generic models can be used for transmission planning, stability assessments, expansion planning, and evaluating potential future IBR interconnection requirements. They can also support interconnection screens and conformity assessments of IBR plants, including solar PV. The project significantly contributed to the ongoing standardization and model-based representation and verification of IBR responses. The project further addressed challenges of common distribution protection schemes with increasing deployment of DER by developing, validating, and demonstrating adaptive protection schemes (APS) that can improve the reliable and safe integration of DER into distribution systems. New APS were designed using improved DER models for three common distribution systems: a radial feeder, a meshed network, and a microgrid. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the APS were conducted, successfully showing their effectiveness and selectivity. Proof-of-concept field demonstration was achieved for two APS, i.e., one on a radial feeder and another one in a microgrid. Field demonstration could not be achieved for the APS on a meshed network, primarily due apprehension of one utility partner and also due to limited access to the protective algorithms in the network protectors. Guidelines developed from the lessons learned in the project lay out the general process followed in the design, installation, and commissioning of APS for various distribution systems. Distribution utility partners’ apprehension about field demonstration of the new APS were addressed—with varying success—by taking a stepped risk-management approach of modeling of a wide range of sensitivities first, performing in-depth proof-of-concept testing in the laboratory including HIL next, and finally deliberately implementing and commissioning the actual protection equipment and algorithms into parts of—or in parallel operation to—the three real distribution systems. Future work should include pilot projects that further show the acceptable performance of the developed APS before these schemes be rolled out more widely. Inclusion of both utility and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in future projects could increase chances of successful field demonstration. Despite challenges in achieving the field demonstration goal of the project for all three APS, the research significantly contributed to the innovation of adaptive protection solutions for scalable and reliable DER integration into distribution systems. This project significantly enhances the understanding of the impact of using appropriate inverter models on distribution and transmission (T&D) systems. By addressing the limitations of existing generic models, the project introduces high-fidelity models for stability, protection, electromagnetic transient (EMT), and quasi-static time series (QSTS) analyses. These models, integrated into commercial software tools, enable utilities, vendors, and developers to confidently study high-penetration PV systems. The project also demonstrates advanced applications, including adaptive protection schemes (APS) for distribution systems and microgrids, ensuring grid safety and reliability. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods are evident through the development and validation of sophisticated inverter test plans and the selection of representative inverters. Testing by EPRI and NREL on retail, commercial, and utility-scale inverters, conforming to IEEE standards, underscores the robustness of the models. Improvements to existing generic models for various analyses further enhance their validity and applicability. The project also identifies gaps in common distribution protection schemes and designed new APS using improved DER models, demonstrating their effectiveness through modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing. The project’s benefits to the public are manifold. By advancing the standardization and model-based representation of IBR response, it supports transmission planning, stability assessments, and future IBR interconnection requirements. The generic models can facilitate better communication between transmission planners and developers, supporting expected IBR plant capability and performance. Additionally, the development of APS for radial feeders, meshed networks, and microgrids supports the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems, enhancing grid reliability and safety. The project’s emphasis on thorough testing and simplicity in design ensures practical and scalable solutions for DER integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving GCM Representation of Convective Cloud Microphysics by Using ARM Raman Lidar and Cloud Radar Observations

The overall objective of this Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric System Research (ASR) funded project is to improve the representation of convective cloud microphysics in global climate models (GCMs) and check it by comparing the model simulations with observations. We have derived the cloud ice water content by synthesizing ARM Raman lidar (RL) and cloud radar observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. Noting that the simulated anvil clouds in terms of their macro- and micro-physical properties are sensitive to the parameterization of convective microphysical processes, observed ice water content in anvil clouds provides a useful constraint on these parameterizations. We have improved the convective microphysics parameterization scheme by (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. We have examined the impact of improved convective cloud microphysics parameterization on the simulated global climate from GCM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Moisture‐Budget Drivers of Global Projections of Meteorological Drought From Multiple GCM Large Ensembles

Future projections of global meteorological drought are evaluated in the Multi‐Model Large Ensemble Archive, including an evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget, conditioned on drought years. Drought is defined as 5‐year running‐mean annual precipitation below some threshold, for example, 10th percentile. Drought increases in frequency over the subtropics, in addition to certain tropical regions, consistent with previous studies. Here, the moisture‐budget decomposition allows drought to be defined as mean‐flow, eddy, or feedback droughts, depending on which term in the equation contributes the largest negative interannual anomaly. In the historical climate, mean‐flow droughts constitute most droughts at low latitudes; eddy droughts are equally common at higher latitudes; feedback droughts (i.e., droughts exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks) constitute almost all droughts in water‐limited subtropical/Mediterranean regions. The future drought increases are predominantly due to increases in feedback droughts in regions where these droughts are common historically but also over the Amazon. However, over most Mediterranean‐type regions mean‐flow droughts are also large contributors, resulting from dynamics. Eddy droughts also contribute to future increases along the equatorward flanks of historical eddy‐driven jets, likely reflecting poleward shifts therein. Model uncertainty is particularly large over the Amazon and Australia, a reflection of model diversity in processes associated with land‐atmosphere interaction. Based on these results, an availability of 3‐D atmospheric data from a wider swath of global climate model large ensembles could help constrain global drought projections based on the representation of drought mechanisms in the historical climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A 1D Model for Nucleation of Ice From Aerosol Particles: An Application to a Mixed‐Phase Arctic Stratus Cloud Layer

Abstract Mixed‐phase clouds (MPCs) have been identified as significant contributors to uncertainties in climate projections, attributable to model representation of processes controlling the formation and loss of supercooled water droplets and ice particles from the atmosphere. Arctic MPCs are commonly widespread and long‐lived, with sustained ice crystal formation processes that challenge current understanding. This study examines the ice‐nucleating particle (INP) reservoir dynamics governing immersion‐mode heterogeneous freezing in an observed case of Arctic MPCs using a simplified 1D aerosol‐cloud model. The model setup includes prescribed dynamical forcings and thermodynamic profiles, and represents INPs as multicomponent and polydisperse particle size distributions. Diagnostic and prognostic approaches to immersion freezing parameterization are compared, including time‐independent (singular) number‐ and surface area‐based descriptions and a time‐dependent description following classical nucleation theory (CNT). The choice of freezing parameterization defines the size of the INP reservoir. The CNT‐based description yields an orders of magnitude larger INP reservoir than the singular parameterizations, which is the dominant factor for sustained ice crystal formation. The efficiency of the freezing process and cloud cooling are of secondary importance. A diagnostic treatment neglecting INP loss is only accurate when the INP reservoir size is large and INP depletion weak. Since a larger INP reservoir sustains ice crystal formation substantially longer, and ice water path scales with ice crystal concentrations for the conditions considered, resolving the source of differences in INP reservoir dynamics due to model implementation is a high priority for advancing climate model physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Studying Aerosol, Clouds, and Air Quality in the Coastal Urban Environment of Southeastern Texas

A multi-agency succession of field campaigns was conducted in southeastern Texas during July 2021 through October 2022 to study the complex interactions of aerosols, clouds and air pollution in the coastal urban environment. As part of the Tracking Aerosol Convection interactions Experiment (TRACER), the TRACER- Air Quality (TAQ) campaign the Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) and the Convective Cloud Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (CUBE), a combination of ground-based supersites and mobile laboratories, shipborne measurements and aircraft-based instrumentation were deployed. These diverse platforms collected high-resolution data to characterize the aerosol microphysics and chemistry, cloud and precipitation micro- and macro-physical properties, environmental thermodynamics and air quality-relevant constituents that are being used in follow-on analysis and modeling activities. We present the overall deployment setups, a summary of the campaign conditions and a sampling of early research results related to: (a) aerosol precursors in the urban environment, (b) influences of local meteorology on air pollution, (c) detailed observations of the sea breeze circulation, (d) retrieved supersaturation in convective updrafts, (e) characterizing the convective updraft lifecycle, (f) variability in lightning characteristics of convective storms and (g) urban influences on surface energy fluxes. The work concludes with discussion of future research activities highlighted by the TRACER model-intercomparison project to explore the representation of aerosol-convective interactions in high-resolution simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrative illustration of a JCVI-syn3A minimal cell

Abstract Data from genomics, proteomics, structural biology and cryo-electron microscopy are integrated into a structural illustration of a cross section through an entire JCVI-syn3.0 minimal cell. The illustration is designed with several goals: to inspire excitement in science, to depict the underlying scientific results accurately, and to be feasible in traditional media. Design choices to achieve these goals include reduction of visual complexity with simplified representations, use of orthographic projection to retain scale relationships, and an approach to color that highlights functional compartments of the cell. Given that this simple cell provides an attractive laboratory for exploring the central processes needed for life, several functional narratives are included in the illustration, including division of the cell and the first depiction of an entire cellular proteome. The illustration lays the foundation for 3D molecular modeling of this cell.

Goodsell, David S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Accumulate repeat accumulate codes

In this paper we propose an innovative channel coding scheme called 'Accumulate Repeat Accumulate codes' (ARA). This class of codes can be viewed as serial turbo-like codes, or as a subclass of Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) codes, thus belief propagation can be used for iterative decoding of ARA codes on a graph. The structure of encoder for this class can be viewed as precoded Repeat Accumulate (RA) code or as precoded Irregular Repeat Accumulate (IRA) code, where simply an accumulator is chosen as a precoder. Thus ARA codes have simple, and very fast encoder structure when they representing LDPC codes. Based on density evolution for LDPC codes through some examples for ARA codes, we show that for maximum variable node degree 5 a minimum bit SNR as low as 0.08 dB from channel capacity for rate 1/2 can be achieved as the block size goes to infinity. Thus based on fixed low maximum variable node degree, its threshold outperforms not only the RA and IRA codes but also the best known LDPC codes with the dame maximum node degree. Furthermore by puncturing the accumulators any desired high rate codes close to code rate 1 can be obtained with thresholds that stay close to the channel capacity thresholds uniformly. Iterative decoding simulation results are provided. The ARA codes also have projected graph or protograph representation that allows for high speed decoder implementation.

Low Density Parity Check codes (LDPC)↗
NASA NTRS2004

Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate-Accumulate-Codes

Inspired by recently proposed Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate (ARA) codes [15], in this paper we propose a channel coding scheme called Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate-Accumulate (ARAA) codes. These codes can be seen as serial turbo-like codes or as a subclass of Low Density Parity Check (LDPC) codes, and they have a projected graph or protograph representation; this allows for a high-speed iterative decoder implementation using belief propagation. An ARAA code can be viewed as a precoded Repeat-and-Accumulate (RA) code with puncturing in concatenation with another accumulator, where simply an accumulator is chosen as the precoder; thus ARAA codes have a very fast encoder structure. Using density evolution on their associated protographs, we find examples of rate-lJ2 ARAA codes with maximum variable node degree 4 for which a minimum bit-SNR as low as 0.21 dB from the channel capacity limit can be achieved as the block size goes to infinity. Such a low threshold cannot be achieved by RA or Irregular RA (IRA) or unstructured irregular LDPC codes with the same constraint on the maximum variable node degree. Furthermore by puncturing the accumulators we can construct families of higher rate ARAA codes with thresholds that stay close to their respective channel capacity thresholds uniformly. Iterative decoding simulation results show comparable performance with the best-known LDPC codes but with very low error floor even at moderate block sizes.

density evolution↗
NASA NTRS2009

Constructing LDPC Codes from Loop-Free Encoding Modules

A method of constructing certain low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes by use of relatively simple loop-free coding modules has been developed. The subclasses of LDPC codes to which the method applies includes accumulate-repeat-accumulate (ARA) codes, accumulate-repeat-check-accumulate codes, and the codes described in Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate-Accumulate Codes (NPO-41305), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 31, No. 9 (September 2007), page 90. All of the affected codes can be characterized as serial/parallel (hybrid) concatenations of such relatively simple modules as accumulators, repetition codes, differentiators, and punctured single-parity check codes. These are error-correcting codes suitable for use in a variety of wireless data-communication systems that include noisy channels. These codes can also be characterized as hybrid turbolike codes that have projected graph or protograph representations (for example see figure); these characteristics make it possible to design high-speed iterative decoders that utilize belief-propagation algorithms. The present method comprises two related submethods for constructing LDPC codes from simple loop-free modules with circulant permutations. The first submethod is an iterative encoding method based on the erasure-decoding algorithm. The computations required by this method are well organized because they involve a parity-check matrix having a block-circulant structure. The second submethod involves the use of block-circulant generator matrices. The encoders of this method are very similar to those of recursive convolutional codes. Some encoders according to this second submethod have been implemented in a small field-programmable gate array that operates at a speed of 100 megasymbols per second. By use of density evolution (a computational- simulation technique for analyzing performances of LDPC codes), it has been shown through some examples that as the block size goes to infinity, low iterative decoding thresholds close to channel capacity limits can be achieved for the codes of the type in question having low maximum variable node degrees. The decoding thresholds in these examples are lower than those of the best-known unstructured irregular LDPC codes constrained to have the same maximum node degrees. Furthermore, the present method enables the construction of codes of any desired rate with thresholds that stay uniformly close to their respective channel capacity thresholds.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
NASA NTRS2007

Accumulate-Repeat-Accumulate-Accumulate Codes

Accumulate-repeat-accumulate-accumulate (ARAA) codes have been proposed, inspired by the recently proposed accumulate-repeat-accumulate (ARA) codes. These are error-correcting codes suitable for use in a variety of wireless data-communication systems that include noisy channels. ARAA codes can be regarded as serial turbolike codes or as a subclass of low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes, and, like ARA codes they have projected graph or protograph representations; these characteristics make it possible to design high-speed iterative decoders that utilize belief-propagation algorithms. The objective in proposing ARAA codes as a subclass of ARA codes was to enhance the error-floor performance of ARA codes while maintaining simple encoding structures and low maximum variable node degree.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
NASA NTRS2005

Techniques and Tools of NASA's Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation

The Space Shuttle Columbia accident investigation was a fusion of many disciplines into a single effort. From the recovery and reconstruction of the debris, Figure 1, to the analysis, both destructive and nondestructive, of chemical and metallurgical samples, Figure 2, a multitude of analytical techniques and tools were employed. Destructive and non-destructive testing were utilized in tandem to determine if a breach in the left wing of the Orbiter had occurred, and if so, the path of the resultant high temperature plasma flow. Nondestructive analysis included topometric scanning, laser mapping, and real-time radiography. These techniques were useful in constructing a three dimensional virtual representation of the reconstruction project, specifically the left wing leading edge reinforced carbon/carbon heat protectant panels. Similarly, they were beneficial in determining where sampling should be performed on the debris. Analytic testing included such techniques as Energy Dispersive Electron Microprobe Analysis (EMPA), Electron Spectroscopy Chemical Analysis (ESCA), and X-Ray dot mapping; these techniques related the characteristics of intermetallics deposited on the leading edge of the left wing adjacent to the location of a suspected plasma breach during reentry. The methods and results of the various analyses, along with their implications into the accident, are discussed, along with the findings and recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board. Likewise, NASA's Return To Flight efforts are highlighted.

McDanels, Steve J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Celine J W Bonfils↗