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NASA NTRS1988

Issues in NASA program and project management

This collection of papers and resources on aerospace management issues is inspired by a desire to benefit from the lessons learned from past projects and programs. Inherent in the NASA culture is a respect for divergent viewpoints and innovative ways of doing things. This publication presents a wide variety of views and opinions. Good management is enhanced when program and project managers examine the methods of veteran managers, considering the lessons they have learned and reflected on their own guiding principles.

Hoban, Francis T.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surface Transportation of the Common Habitat from Lander to Habitation Zone

The Common Habitat Architecture is a feasibility study surrounding the use of an SLS core stage liquid oxygen tank as the pressure vessel for a long-duration habitat intended for use in multiple gravity environments. The Common Habitat is used within this study as the primary habitation element in both Moon and Mars surface base camps. The Common Habitat Architecture offloads the Common Habitat from its lander and transports it to a Habitation Zone instead of leaving the habitat integrated with the lander. In this study, the Landing Zone is assumed to be approximately 3.5 kilometers from the Habitation Zone. Given the physical size and estimated 90-ton mass of the Common Habitat, a four-week trade study encompassing Moon and Mars lander identification, offloading, surface transport, and emplacement was conducted in February 2021 to assess whether there are any credible options for landing the Common Habitat on the Moon or Mars and deliver it to its intended point of use. Constrained to use only public data, the study applied subject matter expert opinion to each component of the study. The surface transportation component of the trade study assumes the habitat has been successfully offloaded from its lander and is at a point of handover to the surface transportation system. It is assumed that there are no crew present, and all human operations are performed remotely by Mission Control personnel. Three core cargo handling elements from prior NASA studies were used as the basis from which to derive surface transportation options – the Chariot, the All-Terrain Hex-Limbed Extra-Terrestrial Explorer, and the Lightweight Surface Manipulator System. Variations and hybrid combinations of these elements were used to develop transportation options for the Moon and Mars, given different habitat masses. Ultimately, several potentially feasible solutions were identified, and a solution was recommended that is common to both the Moon and Mars, with the potential to use a dissimilar system as a backup during lunar Common Habitat delivery. Next steps for sizing and additional development and analysis of the recommended surface transportation system are included as forward work.

Surface Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2015

Introduction to Autogyros, Helicopters, and Other V/STOL Aircraft Volume III: Other V/STOL Aircraft

The period from Ciervas demonstration of his C.6A Autogiro in Farnborough, England, in October 1925, up to when Pan American World Airways ushered in jet age service to Europe with a Boeing 707-120 on October 26, 1958, was one of enormous progress in the aviation world. This progress was made primarily in the fixed-wing world. This 33-year period saw the conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) machine achieve increases in cruise speed, range, cruise altitude, and number of passengers carried. These improvements were not, however, accompanied by reductions in takeoff and landing space required. In fact, just the opposite occurred. And with the arrival of the autogyro, and then the helicopter, fixed-wing advocates were presented with a clear challenge to fix the airplanes major shortcomings stalling and loss of control at low speed. I do not think airplane advocates felt particularly threatened by autogyros in the late 1920s because it quickly became apparent that the cruise performance of these short takeoff and landing (STOL) aircraft would never become competitive. Even the vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) capability offered by the helicopter was relegated to a niche market. Fixed-wing advocates felt (and still feel, in my opinion) that helicopters would never take much of the traveling publics business away from their major civil airlines or trains, buses, cars, or ships for that matter. Understanding the fundamental performance problem of the CTOL is a prerequisite to learning about VTOLs and STOLs. Therefore, let me use this introduction to set the stage for an in-depth discussion of vertical and short takeoff and landing (VSTOL) aircraft.

Harris, Franklin Dewitt↗

NASA NTRS1974

A city invests in its future

Events occurring during the past four years which led to the City of Burbank's decision to acquire an energy source adequate for the city's present and future power requirements are discussed. The community reaction to this unprecedented move is also covered. Burbank's long-range plans for the development of geothermal energy are outlined as well as the challenges which confront a public utility in implementing its projected goals. There are several advantages accurring to the city which in the opinion of the Burbank City Council and the administration justify this venture. The need for a cooperative climate which will enable all electrical utilities to better meet their obligations to the public, which is their prime responsibility before all other considerations, is analyzed.

Baker, J. N.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantitative Universal Option Prioritizer (QUOP) v1.0.0

Quantitative Universal Option Prioritizer (QUOP) is a three-layer analytical hierarchy process (AHP) based multi-criteria decision-making option evaluation and prioritization tool. Decision-making often entails evaluation of options. Such competing options can either be mutual substitutes or cumulative means to achieve an objective. The options themselves can be methods, tools, technologies, processes, etc. Stakeholders involved in achieving the objective may view each option characteristic differently, depending on their needs and preferences. The QUOP tool enables a streamlined quantitative collaborative process of weighing the opinion of each stakeholder in evaluating the options. The evaluation may also be performed under different scenarios, for instance, various option potential estimates, prices, or end-user demand projections. The QUOP tool can find application in both public and private sectors, as well as on an individual level. The major advantage of using the QUOP decision-making tool is in documenting the quantified stakeholder opinion, therefore the background to each decision made, while simultaneously maintaining high transparency and stakeholder involvement. The tool is particularly suitable for decisions involving a high number of options and option characteristics, that is, aspects of each option that matter to the stakeholders

Grahovac, Milica↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the nature of large language models: A caution against anthropocentrism.

Generative AI models garnered a large amount of public attention and speculation with the release of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT in November of 2022. At least two opinion camps exist – one that is excited about the possibilities these models offer for fundamental changes to human tasks, and another that is highly concerned about the power these models seem to have – especially since the release of GPT-4, which was trained on multimodal data and has ~1.7 trillion (T) parameters. We evaluated some concerns regarding these models’ power by assessing GPT-3.5 using standard, normed, and validated cognitive and personality measures. These measures come from the tradition of psychometrics in experimental psychology and have a long history of providing valuable insights and predictive distinctions in humans. For this seedling project, we developed a battery of tests that allowed us to estimate the boundaries of some of these models’ capabilities, how stable those capabilities are over a short period of time, and how they compare to humans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the nature of large language models: A caution against anthropocentrism

Generative AI models garnered a large amount of public attention and speculation with the release of OpenAI’s chatbot, ChatGPT in November of 2022. At least two opinion camps exist – one that is excited about the possibilities these models offer for fundamental changes to human tasks, and another that is highly concerned about the power these models seem to have – especially since the release of GPT-4, which was trained on multimodal data and has ~1.7 trillion (T) parameters. We evaluated some concerns regarding these models’ power by assessing GPT 3.5 using standard, normed, and validated cognitive and personality measures. These measures come from the tradition of psychometrics in experimental psychology and have a long history of providing valuable insights and predictive distinctions in humans. For this seedling project, we developed a battery of tests that allowed us to estimate the boundaries of some of these models’ capabilities, how stable those capabilities are over a short period of time, and how they compare to humans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Influence of Aqueous Dispersivity on Transport of Radiological Material at LANL MDA G - 20450

Aqueous dispersivity is a phenomenon by which a solute moving in groundwater mixes with water that does not contain the solute and becomes diluted. Solutes take paths of varying lengths through pore networks or experience slower velocities due to interactions with pore walls. Aqueous dispersivity leads to breakthrough curves with earlier arrival than expected in purely advective systems and persistent 'tails,' or late-arriving, dilute concentrations of the solute. Dispersivity can be longitudinal (in the direction of flow) or transverse (orthogonal to flow). LANL has disposed of radioactive material at Material Disposal Area (MDA) G since the late 1950's. Most of the disposed materials at MDA G are low-level waste (LLW), but other types of radioactive wastes are disposed or stored at the site. For example, there is a collection of remote-handled transuranic waste (RH-TRU) waste in 33 shafts, which were intended to be stored retrievably. Aqueous-phase radionuclides included in models of contaminant transport at MDA G are subject to dispersive processes in porous media of the vadose zone and saturated zone. To model dispersivity at MDA G probabilistically, we created site-specific distributions of aqueous dispersivity. First, we performed a comprehensive review of peer-reviewed publications, reports from other performance assessments of MDA G, and documentation from sites that were considered similar based on expert opinion, such as Yucca Mountain. Data were included from a wide range of sources, so that distributions developed based on the data reflect the current state of knowledge in properties of the subsurface environment. Data were grouped based on value type (e.g., determined via experiment or used in a different model), rock type, zone type (saturated or unsaturated), and site, and were weighted in the distributions according to their relevance to the site and zone type. We combined Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping techniques to produce approximate distributions of mean aqueous dispersivity. Distributions of dispersivity for saturated and unsaturated zone transport are differentiated by data weight and the length scales over which transport occurs. We find that underestimating or disregarding transverse dispersivity may lead to overstating simulated well capture in the saturated zone at MDA G. Neglecting transverse dispersivity is a common assumption due in part to use of one-dimensional transport models that do not consider solute spreading orthogonal to flow. Also, we find that variability in longitudinal dispersivity is associated with substantial travel time alterations in the MDA G unsaturated zone and in simulated contaminant breakthrough times at a downstream observation plane in the MDA G saturated zone. Finally, at large scales (>1000 m), a linear trend between the dispersivity coefficient and length over which transport occurs may overestimate the dispersivity coefficient. Future modeling work with application to solute spreading could include interacting advective and diffusive zones in the highly fractured basalt below MDA G. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2024

X-Plane Knowledge Capture Workshop Summary Report

The history of experimental aircraft research and development at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) provides a large body of work for current and future team members to learn from and apply. NASA values the knowledge it gains from all the research it performs and desires to have that knowledge grow with each new project, incrementally adding to the collective knowledge base. To support this knowledge growth and sharing, in May 2019, NASA convened over 60 engineers; researchers; and other personnel (internal and external to NASA) for the X-plane1 Knowledge Capture Workshop to discuss their over 50-years’ worth of experiences in developing, operating, and managing experimental aircraft. Over the course of a two-day workshop, the group not only focused, primarily, on current X-plane development but also discussed a wide range of topics about experimental aircraft and flight research. In addition to the discussions, senior NASA aeronautics leaders shared their personal lessons learned with the workshop audience. Broadly, these discussions centered around the topics of organizational and cultural practices, the project lifecycle, flight, and risk and safety. Many of the observations offered by participants are applicable to other NASA team-based projects, demonstrating the value in sharing lessons learned and best practices across projects regardless of their research focus. To share the most valuable lessons learned as broadly as possible, a summary of these discussions has been compiled into the following report. These discussions are mostly included in their entirety, with some light editing for clarity and privacy. NASA is sharing this knowledge internally and making it available to the public in hopes that others can learn from the experimental aircraft challenges and successes at NASA. Note: this document represents the perspectives, experiences, and opinions of others but does not necessarily represent the official view of NASA.

Steven R Hirshorn↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of the frequency and nature of erroneous x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy analyses in the scientific literature

Here, this study was undertaken to understand the extent and nature of problems in x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) data reported in the literature. It first presents an assessment of the XPS data in three high-quality journals over a six-month period. This analysis of 409 publications showing XPS spectra provides insight into how XPS is being used, identifies the common mistakes or errors in XPS analysis, and reveals which elements are most commonly analyzed. More than 65% of the 409 papers showed fitting of XP spectra. An ad hoc group (herein identified as “the committee”) of experienced XPS analysts reviewed these spectra and found that peak fitting was a common source of significant errors. The papers were ranked based on the perceived seriousness of the errors, which ranged from minor to major. Major errors, which, in the opinion of the ad hoc committee, can render the interpretation of the data meaningless, occurred when fitting protocols ignored underlying physics and chemistry or contained major errors in the analysis. Consistent with other materials analysis data, ca. 30% of the XPS data or analysis was identified as having major errors. Out of the publications with fitted spectra, ca. 40% had major errors. The most common elements analyzed by XPS in the papers sampled and researched at an online database, include carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, sulfur, and titanium. A scrutiny of the papers showing carbon and oxygen XPS spectra revealed the classes of materials being studied and the extent of problems in these analyses. As might be expected, C 1s and O 1s analyses are most often performed on sp2-type materials and inorganic oxides, respectively. These findings have helped focus a series of XPS guides and tutorials that deal with common analysis issues. The extent of problematic data is larger than the authors had expected. Quantification of the problem, examination of some of the common problem areas, and the development of targeted guides and tutorials may provide both the motivation and resources that enable the community to improve the overall quality and reliability of XPS analysis reported in the literature.

Major, George H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A multi-criteria CCUS screening evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA

Continued research into reservoir characterization along with offshore carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transportation and infrastructure assets is needed to facilitate development of safe and successful carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This paper outlines a multi-criteria evaluation methodology that incorporates disparate sets of quantitative, spatially variable data into a decision-making framework for screening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) outer continental shelf (OCS) for potentially viable CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Criteria categories include favorable geologic characteristics, logistics, and potential risks. Data compiled for 14 criteria from several publicly available geographic information system (GIS) layers was aggregated over 2559 spatially balanced points across the study area using the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)-developed Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) GIS tool. Criteria are weighted by qualitative expert opinion relative to their perceived importance to given scenarios— the output of combined criteria values and weights enables regional CO 2 storage suitability differentiation. The methodology considers both technical and non-technical factors impacting CCUS decision-making. The flexible methodology enables a systematic approach to regional ranking at high spatial resolution over a large study domain. Additionally, the framework enables high-grading of priority sites that warrant further characterization and follow-on analysis. Areas along the Louisiana coast and Mississippi River Delta consistently rank high for all scenarios largely a result of the favorable geology with the potential for stacked storage, as well as the density of existing pipelines and platforms, and proximity to several onshore CO 2 sources. High-graded regions for the CO 2 EOR-related scenarios are typically located further offshore towards the middle and edge of the OCS compared to higher priority regions for the geologic storage scenarios which fall closer to the Louisiana coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 5: Mapping Climate Risk

The mapping work of the NPCC is focused on illustrating spatial climate risk information to inform policy makers, stakeholders, and the public of the distribution of climate risk across the landscape of New York City. Flood risk, overall, has been the primary focus of climate risk, based on a variety of approaches including global climate models, semiempirical studies, literature surveys, expert opinion, and historic tide gauge and more recently, satellite observations of sea level rise. Maps of potential future flood extents are used to visualize coastal flooding extents at the neighborhood scale and to assess the progression of citywide flood risk throughout the 21st century. The NPCC maps were developed as a tool to illustrate our present understanding of the potential futures for which we need to prepare. This chapter reviews the background, methodology, and limitations of the NPCC3 (and NPCC2) mapping approach and features new citywide maps of mean sea level rise, monthly tidal flooding, and 100year return period flooding under a high end scenario of sea level rise. It concludes with a discussion of future mapping efforts and next steps that the NPCC could consider.

Patrick, Lesley↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modern Senicide in the Face of a Pandemic: An Examination of Public Discourse and Sentiment About Older Adults and COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

Objectives This study examined public discourse and sentiment regarding older adults and COVID-19 on social media and assessed the extent of ageism in public discourse. Methods Twitter data (N = 82,893) related to both older adults and COVID-19 and dated from January 23 to May 20, 2020, were analyzed. We used a combination of data science methods (including supervised machine learning, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis), qualitative thematic analysis, and conventional statistics. Results The most common category in the coded tweets was “personal opinions” (66.2%), followed by “informative” (24.7%), “jokes/ridicule” (4.8%), and “personal experiences” (4.3%). The daily average of ageist content was 18%, with the highest of 52.8% on March 11, 2020. Specifically, more than 1 in 10 (11.5%) tweets implied that the life of older adults is less valuable or downplayed the pandemic because it mostly harms older adults. A small proportion (4.6%) explicitly supported the idea of just isolating older adults. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) within “jokes/ridicule” targeted older adults, half of which were “death jokes.” Also, 14 themes were extracted, such as perceptions of lockdown and risk. A bivariate Granger causality test suggested that informative tweets regarding at-risk populations increased the prevalence of tweets that downplayed the pandemic. Discussion Ageist content in the context of COVID-19 was prevalent on Twitter. Information about COVID-19 on Twitter influenced public perceptions of risk and acceptable ways of controlling the pandemic. Finaly, public education on the risk of severe illness is needed to correct misperceptions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Passenger Survey - Washington DC Metrorail - 2012

The primary purposes of the survey were to update ridership by the jurisdiction of residence for use in Metrorail’s operating subsidy allocation and to collect demographic, travel, and access data for Title VI compliance, system planning, and operation analyses. It was not a customer opinion survey; the focus was on ridership and travel characteristics.