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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump system for load shifting: experiments, modeling and nationwide analysis

Here, this paper proposes and validates a dual-season thermal energy storage-integrated heat pump (TES-HP) system that shifts building electric load in both cooling and heating modes using a single phase-change TES. The design uses the TES as a heat sink for the condenser in summer and a heat source for the evaporator in winter, thereby reducing on-peak electric demand while ensuring compatible with existing air-distribution systems. A 14-kW TES-HP prototype with six operating modes and novel refrigerant charge management strategies was experimentally tested under varied conditions. Subsequently, data-driven polynomial performance curves were developed and validated against experiments, then coupled with a phase change material (PCM) model and a calibrated building model within a rule-based controller. Single-day case studies demonstrated effective on-peak demand reduction while maintaining thermal comfort. During cooling, hourly power was lowered by up to 1.5 kW; in heating, average hourly power decreased from over 3.5 kW to 1.8 kW, compared to an HP-only system, achieving 64.5 % load shifting, and the need for resistance heating was eliminated. Seasonal simulations showed typical on-peak electricity savings of 25–35 % in cooling and 40–65 % in heating, with the largest benefits on the hottest and coldest days. Extended response-surface analysis and nationwide mapping quantified load shifting as functions of ambient and TES temperatures, revealing a seasonal trade-off in TES phase-change temperature. These results demonstrate the TES-HP system as a practical and scalable solution for grid-interactive buildings that reduces on-peak demand and electricity use while maintaining thermal comfort and enhancing grid flexibility and reliability.

Grid-interactive buildings↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strategies for solving the excited-state self-consistent-field problem for highly excited and multiply ionized states

The dynamics of molecules exposed to intense x-ray radiation involve a large number of multiply ionized and highly excited electronic configurations. To model these dynamics a reliable and efficient electronic structure model is imperative. Employing the Hartree-Fock-Slater electronic structure model in combination with the maximum overlap method, we quantify the associated convergence failures when calculating electronic states of carbon monoxide with multiple vacancies in the core and valence levels. Here, we characterize these cases and describe strategies to overcome the convergence problems. The described techniques not only eliminate all convergence issues for CO but also result in a significant reduction of convergence failures for simulations of the x-ray-induced multiple ionization dynamics of the phenol molecule.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Stochastic Intracellular Model of Anthrax Infection With Spore Germination Heterogeneity

We present a stochastic mathematical model of the intracellular infection dynamics of Bacillus anthracis in macrophages. Following inhalation of B. anthracis spores, these are ingested by alveolar phagocytes. Ingested spores then begin to germinate and divide intracellularly. This can lead to the eventual death of the host cell and the extracellular release of bacterial progeny. Some macrophages successfully eliminate the intracellular bacteria and will recover. Here, a stochastic birth-and-death process with catastrophe is proposed, which includes the mechanism of spore germination and maturation of B. anthracis . The resulting model is used to explore the potential for heterogeneity in the spore germination rate, with the consideration of two extreme cases for the rate distribution: continuous Gaussian and discrete Bernoulli. We make use of approximate Bayesian computation to calibrate our model using experimental measurements from in vitro infection of murine peritoneal macrophages with spores of the Sterne 34F2 strain of B. anthracis . The calibrated stochastic model allows us to compute the probability of rupture, mean time to rupture, and rupture size distribution, of a macrophage that has been infected with one spore. We also obtain the mean spore and bacterial loads over time for a population of cells, each assumed to be initially infected with a single spore. Our results support the existence of significant heterogeneity in the germination rate, with a subset of spores expected to germinate much later than the majority. Furthermore, in agreement with experimental evidence, our results suggest that most of the spores taken up by macrophages are likely to be eliminated by the host cell, but a few germinated spores may survive phagocytosis and lead to the death of the infected cell. Finally, we discuss how this stochastic modelling approach, together with dose-response data, allows us to quantify and predict individual infection risk following exposure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of energy and cost reduction from decreasing dissolved oxygen levels in full‐scale water resource recovery facilities

Abstract Aeration systems often lack the efficiency to maintain a desired residual dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration in the tank in part because little consideration is given to the dynamic daily and seasonal loading conditions. Although advanced aeration controllers exist, the majority of plants have DO set points typically based on common practice and literature values rather than site‐specific conditions, which can result in DO set points higher than those necessary to meet treatment objectives. DO set point reduction strategies have primarily been proposed through either static or dynamic simulations. In this study, the substantial improvements associated with DO set point reduction are demonstrated at full scale. A yearlong characterization of full‐scale aeration dynamics captured the effect of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations on oxygen transfer and energy demand and so facilitated the estimation of the potential savings of DO reduction strategies. Full‐scale validation provided direct evidence of DO reduction strategies inducing an overall enhancement of oxygen transfer efficiency along the different bioreactors, while confirming that energy savings as high as 20% were feasible. This study quantifies the influence of oxygen transfer efficiency on operating choices and site‐specific conditions (control strategy, loading conditions, and influent flow variability). Practitioner points We quantified the energy reduction and cost savings associated with a DO reduction in an aeration tank. For each 0.2 mg/L of DO decreased, the average power demand reduction per unit water treated exceeded 17%. Field measurements of dynamic alpha values eliminate the uncertainty in estimating aeration energy and cost savings from DO variations.

Pasini, Federico↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark microgravity experiments and computations for 3D dendritic-array stability in directional solidification

In this study, we present a comprehensive quantitative analysis of stability bands for dendritic arrays during directional solidification of a transparent succinonitrile-0.46 wt % camphor alloy, spanning a broad range of pulling velocities. Taking advantage of the microgravity environment aboard the International Space Station where most convection effects are suppressed, we obtain unique measurements that quantify the stable primary spacing range of spatially extended three-dimensional dendritic array structures under purely diffusive growth conditions. Through carefully designed velocity jump experiments and detailed examination of sub-grain boundary dynamics, we characterize key instabilities, including elimination and tertiary branching, shedding new light on the mechanisms governing dynamic dendritic spacing selection in extended 3D arrays. Phase field simulations are performed to characterize the stability limits of dendritic array structures for quantitative comparison with the flight experiments. Although the simulations capture general trends, significant deviations are noted at the upper stability boundary, indicating the influence of additional, unexplored factors. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of dendritic growth dynamics and offer valuable benchmark data that could aid in refining predictive models and improving control of dendritic microstructures in metallurgical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Benefits Quantification: Recommendations for Consideration

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) integrates engineering principles into the design, development, and operation of cyber-physical systems (CPS) to mitigate or eliminate the impact of cyber-enabled attacks. In July 2024, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) engaged MITRE researchers to investigate methods for systematically measuring the benefits of CIE implementation. This included evaluating the success and outcomes of CIE, identifying and quantifying the value of early adoption, and determining the business justification for its implementation, especially in existing infrastructure. MITRE reviewed existing methods in engineering and cybersecurity to understand how organizations prioritize security investments, considering their strengths, weaknesses, and relevance to CIE stakeholders. Based on this analysis, MITRE proposed potential approaches for quantifying CIE benefits and provided recommendations for INL's consideration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Molecular orbital projectors in non-empirical jmDFT recover exact conditions in transition-metal chemistry

Low-cost, non-empirical corrections to semi-local density functional theory are essential for accurately modeling transition-metal chemistry. Here, we demonstrate the judiciously modified density functional theory (jmDFT) approach with non-empirical U and J parameters obtained directly from frontier orbital energetics on a series of transition-metal complexes. We curate a set of nine representative Ti(III) and V(IV) d 1 transition-metal complexes and evaluate their flat-plane errors along the fractional spin and charge lines. We demonstrate that while jmDFT improves upon both DFT+U and semi-local DFT with the standard atomic orbital projectors (AOPs), it does so inefficiently. We rationalize these inefficiencies by quantifying hybridization in the relevant frontier orbitals. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a procedure for computing a molecular orbital projector (MOP) basis for use with jmDFT. We demonstrate this single set of d 1 MOPs to be suitable for nearly eliminating all energetic delocalization and static correlation errors. In all cases, MOP jmDFT outperforms AOP jmDFT, and it eliminates most flat-plane errors at non-empirical values. Unlike DFT+U or hybrid functionals, jmDFT nearly eliminates energetic delocalization and static correlation errors within a non-empirical framework.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of male-sterile lines of Setaria viridis to accelerate C 4 model plant genetics

Setaria viridis is a diploid C 4 grass in the Poaceae family, notable for its rapid life cycle of 6–8 weeks from sowing to seed—much shorter than the 4–5 months required by crops such as Zea mays and Sorghum bicolor . This fast growth makes S. viridis a valuable model for C 4 crop research. Genetic crosses are essential for studying gene function, but manual crossing is labor-intensive and time-consuming. Here, to address this, we developed a male-sterile line by targeting the S. viridis ortholog of Setaria italica NO POLLEN 1 ( SiNP1 ), which encodes a glucose–methanol–choline oxidoreductase required for pollen exine formation. Using Cas9 and TREX2 -mediated genome editing, we generated SiNP1 knockouts in both the S. viridis ME034V and A10.1 backgrounds that were fully male-sterile. Backcrossing T 0 male-sterile plants to ME034V wild-type followed by selfing yielded a stable BC 1 F 2 line homozygous for a 59 bp deletion in the S. viridis NO POLLEN 1 gene, easily genotyped by PCR and maintained by heterozygous siblings. Using this line, we developed a simple and efficient crossing protocol that eliminates the need for emasculation. This method enables a single person to perform up to 100 crosses per day—compared to 15 using traditional methods—and yields 20–32 F 1 hybrid seeds per panicle with 100% genetic purity. We also quantified pollen flow and outcrossing frequencies under greenhouse conditions to develop optimal bagging strategies and prevent unintended pollination. This resource accelerates genetic research in S. viridis , enhancing its utility as a premier C 4 model for mapping and functional genomics.

C4 research↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Comprehensive Investigation into the Effect of a Low Surface Energy Treatment on Gas Hydrate, Asphaltene, and Wax Formation, Deposition, and Adhesion

The formation/precipitation and deposition of pipeline solids, such as gas hydrates, asphaltenes, and waxes have long plagued production fields. Given the vast differences in chemistries of these solids, any current prevention or mitigation strategy, particularly for cases in which multiple issues are a concern, is likely to involve an extensive assortment of chemical additives that are both costly and add complexity to the system. Surface treatments (coatings), on the other hand, present a relatively viable option for management strategies. A chemically and physically robust surface treatment with the ability to address deposition issues for multiple pipeline solids could not only decrease the operating expenditures for a field through material cost savings and obviation of downstream separation, but could also simplify produced fluids by eliminating additional chemicals from the mixture. The purpose of this study was to explore the feasibility of a particular surface treatment as part of a solids management strategy. This work used an omniphobic surface treatment to probe its effects on gas hydrate, asphaltene, and wax deposition. Specifically, an interfacial tensiometer (IFT) collected contact angle measurements for wettability studies. High-pressure rocking cells studied gas hydrate nucleation and deposition. A bench-scale flow loop quantified the deposition of oil and asphaltenes after a set time period. Finally, a mechanical shear device measured the adhesion force of wax deposits on untreated/treated surfaces. Static contact angle results showed that the omniphobic surface treatment had reduced surface interaction with water droplets in air, altering from the complete wetting on corroded surfaces to slightly hydrophobic conditions of greater than 100°. In addition, rocking-cell tests indicated that these omniphobic surface treatments may prevent gas hydrate deposition for up to 72 hours. The gas hydrate rocking-cell tests also demonstrated possible increases in induction time and occasional elimination of hydrate nucleation with the surface treatment. Finally, the surface treatment application, which also decreased surface roughness, showed that crude oil and asphaltene particles deposition, as well as the shear required to remove solidified wax deposits, could be reduced by a large factor. Overall, promising results were recorded for all major flow-assurance solids in the presence of the surface treatment.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

D 3 -creatine dilution for skeletal muscle mass measurement: historical development and current status

The French chemist Michel Eugène Chevreul discovered creatine in meat two centuries ago. Extensive biochemical and physiological studies of this organic molecule followed with confirmation that creatine is found within the cytoplasm and mitochondria of human skeletal muscles. Two groups of investigators exploited these relationships five decades ago by first estimating the creatine pool size in vivo with 14 C and 15 N labelled isotopes. Skeletal muscle mass (kg) was then calculated by dividing the creatine pool size (g) by muscle creatine concentration (g/kg) measured on a single muscle biopsy or estimated from the literature. This approach for quantifying skeletal muscle mass is generating renewed interest with the recent introduction of a practical stable isotope (creatine-(methyl-d 3 )) dilution method for estimating the creatine pool size across the full human lifespan. The need for a muscle biopsy has been eliminated by assuming a constant value for whole-body skeletal muscle creatine concentration of 4.3 g/kg wet weight. The current single compartment model of estimating creatine pool size and skeletal muscle mass rests on four main assumptions: tracer absorption is complete; tracer is all retained; tracer is distributed solely in skeletal muscle; and skeletal muscle creatine concentration is known and constant. Three of these assumptions are false to varying degrees. Not all tracer is retained with urinary isotope losses ranging from 0% to 9%; an empirical equation requiring further validation is used to correct for spillage. Not all tracer is distributed in skeletal muscle with non-muscle creatine sources ranging from 2% to 10% with a definitive value lacking. Lastly, skeletal muscle creatine concentration is not constant and varies between muscles (e.g. 3.89–4.62 g/kg), with diets (e.g. vegetarian and omnivore), across age groups (e.g. middle-age, ~4.5 g/kg; old-age, 4.0 g/kg), activity levels (e.g. athletes, ~5 g/kg) and in disease states (e.g. muscular dystrophies, <3 g/kg). Some of the variability in skeletal muscle creatine concentrations can be attributed to heterogeneity in the proportions of wet skeletal muscle as myofibres, connective tissues, and fat. These observations raise serious concerns regarding the accuracy of the deuterated-creatine dilution method for estimating total body skeletal muscle mass as now defined by cadaver analyses of whole wet tissues and in vivo approaches such as magnetic resonance imaging. A new framework is needed in thinking about how this potentially valuable method for measuring the creatine pool size in vivo can be used in the future to study skeletal muscle biology in health and disease.

body composition↗
DOE OSTI2021

ThickBrick: optimal event selection and categorization in high energy physics. Part I. Signal discovery

We provide a prescription called ThickBrick to train optimal machine-learning-based event selectors and categorizers that maximize the statistical significance of a potential signal excess in high energy physics (HEP) experiments, as quantified by any of six different performance measures. For analyses where the signal search is performed in the distribution of some event variables, our prescription ensures that only the information complementary to those event variables is used in event selection and categorization. This eliminates a major misalignment with the physics goals of the analysis (maximizing the significance of an excess) that exists in the training of typical ML-based event selectors and categorizers. In addition, this decorrelation of event selectors from the relevant event variables prevents the background distribution from becoming peaked in the signal region as a result of event selection, thereby ameliorating the challenges imposed on signal searches by systematic uncertainties. Our event selectors (categorizers) use the output of machine-learning-based classifiers as input and apply optimal selection cutoffs (categorization thresholds) that are functions of the event variables being analyzed, as opposed to flat cutoffs (thresholds). These optimal cutoffs and thresholds are learned iteratively, using a novel approach with connections to Lloyd’s k-means clustering algorithm. We provide a public, Python implementation of our prescription, also called ThickBrick, along with usage examples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Physics-Based DNI Model for Advancing Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting: Preprint

Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is one of the most used quantities to quantify the magnitude of solar energy resource. The concept of DNI is often interpreted differently for ground measurements and solar forecasting by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias during evaluation of DNI forecasts especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To eliminate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to provide a physics-based solution of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The FARMS-DNI is implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to forecast day-ahead DNI in the north America. By comparing with conventional predictions from WRF-Solar and satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB), we found significant improvements in our prediction of DNI.

DNI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. In this work, we conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Game Theory Approaches for System-level Incentive Design

This report presents a generalized Stackelberg game framework for designing and evaluating financial incentives that enhance power system resilience through strategic deployment of distributed energy resources(DERs) under various contingencies. The proposed approach addresses the challenge of coordinating individual community investment decisions to meet system-wide resilience objectives. The framework is demonstrated in a three-community test system subjected to two transmission contingency scenarios: inter-community line failure (Case 1) and complete main grid disconnection (Case 2). In both cases, three incentive levels are compared: a Base case with no financial incentives, and low and high incentive cases. In Case 1, the Base case (no incentives) results in a total installed DER capacity of 217.2 MW, with no load shedding due to alternative routing, but community costs remain high. Increasing incentives raises DER deployment to 286.9 MW, lowers aggregate community costs by $22M annually, and completely avoids the need for costly new transmission line construction. In Case 2, the Base case results in 24.3 MWh of unserved load; introducing incentives eliminates all load shedding and ensures up to 89 MWh of battery storage is available for emergency reserve. These results demonstrate that targeted incentives can dramatically improve grid resilience and cost-effectiveness. The framework thus offers policymakers and system planners a robust tool to quantify and compare the effectiveness of incentive programs for multi-community transmission networks behavior, system resilience, and economic efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Continuous Counter‐Current Microfluidic Liquid–Liquid Extraction Achieved Using a Pair of Wettable Screen Meshes

Continuous counter‐current microfluidic liquid–liquid extraction performs separations by flowing immiscible liquids in opposing directions within a single flow channel. In principle, this flow arrangement enables a large number of theoretical separation units in a small footprint, without using interstage valving, pumping, and phase separation. Despite its potential for excellent separation performance, this microfluidic scheme rarely appears in literature due to the requirement for capillary forces to be greater than hydrodynamic forces for stable flow. We present a novel microfluidic device and flow approaches that overcome this force‐balance challenge, enabling stable, long‐duration continuous counter‐current flow. Additionally, we cover a suite of methodologies for quantifying the performance of the microfluidic device, revealing the number of theoretical equilibrium stages achieved. The enabling technologies include a woven mesh screen‐based microfluidic device architecture that is easily fabricated outside of a clean room, surface functionalization strategies to promote conjugate (organic/aqueous) wettability, flow approaches to eliminate bubbles and carryover, and computer‐aided flow automation with optical measurement of extraction performance. The reported experiments lasted for over 36 h, terminated only at experiment conclusion, where the device still exhibited good performance. Automated Raman spectroscopy was used for solute quantitation of the ternary system tert‐butanol in a toluene/water matrix, a ternary system that was specifically chosen to analyze the device's performance with a small solute partition ratio and to enable in‐line Raman measurements of solute concentrations in both phases. The microfluidic device possessed a 55 mm contact length and a 38.5 µL internal volume. During counter‐current flow, we observed approximately 37 equilibrium stages (37 ± 13) based on a best‐fit of the solute fraction remaining in the aqueous phase using a Kremser Group Method analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

IER 557: Godiva Pulse Repeatability and Characterization (CED-3A Report)

Godiva IV is a fast burst critical assembly constructed of approximately 65 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel alloyed with 1.5% molybdenum for strength. Godiva IV is proposed as the radiation source for IER 498: Design a Shielding Benchmark with a Metal Critical Source. IER 498 proposes a two-burst method to determine the performance of shielding samples, comparing the transmission of the source radiation to detectors with and without a shielding sample present. This eliminates the need for an absolute calibration and allows many uncertainties to cancel. However, the source term variability must be low compared to other sources of experimental uncertainty to ensure the overall uncertainty meets acceptable levels to provide useful measurements. The primary goal of this experiment is to quantify the source term variability, or reproducibility, of Godiva bursts, focusing on the 70 °C bursts planned for IER 498 measurements. Discussions during IER 498 noted that a number of bursts (on the order of six to ten) as identical as possible would be performed and that a 5-7% standard deviation in source intensity would be acceptable.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Demonstration of a Class 6 Range-Extended Electric Vehicle for Commercial Pickup and Delivery Operation: Preprint

Range-extended hybrids are an attractive option for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle fleets because they offer the efficiency of an electrified powertrain with the driving range of a conventional diesel powertrain. The vehicle essentially operates as if it was purely electric for most trips, while ensuring that all commercial routes can be completed in any weather conditions or geographic terrain. Fuel use and point-source emissions can be significantly reduced, and in some cases eliminated, as many shorter routes can be fully electrified with this architecture. Under a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-funded project for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Powertrain Electrification, Cummins has developed a plug-in hybrid electric Class 6 truck with a range-extending engine designed for pickup and delivery application. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) assisted by developing representative workday drive cycles for Class 6 operation and an adapted cycle to enable vehicle track testing. A novel, automated driving system was utilized by Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) to improve the repeatability of the track testing conducted to quantify vehicle energy consumption. Cummins used a drivetrain model to design the hybrid control system for increased fuel savings. The control system functionality and fuel savings objective of 50% or more were confirmed by track testing described in this paper.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling household online shopping demand in the U.S.: a machine learning approach and comparative investigation between 2009 and 2017

Despite the rapid growth of online shopping and research interest in the relationship between online and in-store shopping, national-level modeling and investigation of the demand for online shopping with a prediction focus remain limited in the literature. Here, this paper differs from prior work and leverages two recent releases of the U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data for 2009 and 2017 to develop machine learning (ML) models, specifically gradient boosting machine (GBM), for predicting household-level online shopping purchases. The NHTS data allow for not only conducting nationwide investigation but also at the level of households, which is more appropriate than at the individual level given the connected consumption and shopping needs of members in a household. We follow a systematic procedure for model development including employing Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select input variables (features) in order to reduce the risk of model overfitting and increase model explainability. Among several ML models, GBM is found to yield the best prediction accuracy. Extensive post-modeling investigation is conducted in a comparative manner between 2009 and 2017, including quantifying the importance of each input variable in predicting online shopping demand, and characterizing value-dependent relationships between demand and the input variables. In doing so, two latest advances in machine learning techniques, namely Shapley value-based feature importance and Accumulated Local Effects plots, are adopted to overcome inherent drawbacks of the popular techniques in current ML modeling. The modeling and investigation are performed at the national level, with a number of findings obtained. The models developed and insights gained can be used for online shopping-related freight demand generation and may also be considered for evaluating the potential impact of relevant policies on online shopping demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗