Results for “Quantitative Economics” — Page 3

NASA NTRS1988

Autonomous space processor for orbital debris removal and flame augmentation additives in scramjets for the National Aerospace Plane

This is a brief description of the USRA-sponsored design project at the University of Arizona. Approximately eighty-percent of this effort was spent pursuing a novel engineering concept for the in-situ processing of orbital debris utilizing resources available in low Earth orbit (LEO); the other twenty-percent was devoted to discovering innovative additives for the anchoring of supersonic combustion zones that find direct use in the Aerospace Plane that is expected to use scramjets. The seriousness of the orbital debris problem is briefly described. Available 'solutions' are outlined from the literature. The engineering design is briefly mentioned, with an emphasis on the positive aspects of the space environment that should be used in an economical approach. The aspects of operating in microgravity, vacuum, and in utilizing solar energy are mentioned. A quantitative computer animation was developed to provide design data. Three specific dead spacecraft were identified for an initial cleanup mission. The design concept, which includes a solar processor, remote arm manipulators, and the gradual processing of the debris, is also described. This is followed by a description of hardware construction. Operation and actual processing of simulated debris parts (aluminum, for now) are demonstrated in the NASP task, construction of the new design for measuring the radiation from the key free radicals (as enhanced by the additives) is described. Immediate (1988) and long-range (through 1992) future plans are shown to clearly indicate the full engineering design strategy in the light of the national space program thrusts.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data-Informed Evaluation Framework for Integrated Energy Systems: Insights from Power, Process Heat, and Hydrogen Production Applications

The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) framework provides a systematic evaluation of the diverse preferences and performance metrics associated with alternative solutions. This approach is advantageous over a single-criterion methodology, which are only valid under conditions that assume ceteris paribus or an "apples-to-apples" comparison. However, selecting suitable technologies for integrated energy systems (IES) can be likened to an "apples-to-oranges" comparison, given the heterogeneous factors at stake. These factors include economics and performance parameters, geological compatibility, and environmental impacts. Consequently, past research has often employed a mixture of qualitative and quantitative criteria tailored to the specific interests of each study. While the method proves effective in handling the intricate interplay of criteria, the resulting rankings and scores can vary from study to study. This inconsistency is introduced from the use of subjectively defined thresholds and weights. As a result, decision-makers frequently find it challenging to establish clear connections between specific criteria and the resulting scores, as the transformation of criteria into ordinal scores results in a substantial loss of information. To address this challenge, we introduce a data-informed IES evaluation framework that offers comprehensive, interpretable, and traceable evaluations backed by quantifiable rationale. First, we identified key IES evaluation criteria from a decade of literature, focusing on relevant IES applications in power, process heat, and hydrogen production. We leveraged state-of-the-art cost estimates from the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and technical data from 78 reactor designs from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD-NEA). Lastly, we established thresholds by analyzing the mean, variance, root mean square, and slope of values across alternatives, categorizing the preferences of decision-makers into distinct utility functions, such as linear, saturating, exponential, and stepwise. Our approach yielded two main outcomes: (1) it provided consistent assessments across different stakeholder groups and (2) it visualized uncertainties in the decision-making context via comprehensive sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the impact of our framework, we conducted case studies on 6 reactor designs (AP1000, NuScale, BWRX-300, Xe-100, eVinci, iMSR) for the three applications. Our data-driven framework proved to be highly effective in addressing heterogenous uncertainties faced by varied decision-makers? preferences and IES applications, as well as cost and technical estimates of advanced reactors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Upcycling waste polystyrene to adipic acid through a hybrid chemical and biological process

Oxidative catalytic depolymerization of polystyrene (PS) can produce benzoic acid, but the annual consumption of benzoic acid is ~40 times lower than PS. For this catalytic oxidation method to be a viable means to manage PS waste, benzoic acid should be converted to higher-volume chemicals. We demonstrate a hybrid chemical and biological process that uses PS as feedstock for production of adipic acid, a high-volume co-monomer for nylon 6,6 via benzoic acid. Mn/Br co-catalyzed autoxidation of PS to benzoic acid proceeds with a yield of up to 94% in a solvent mixture of benzoic acid and water. The PS-derived benzoic acid undergoes bioconversion at near-quantitative yield to muconic acid, which is readily converted to adipic acid through catalytic hydrogenation. Process modeling, techno-economic analysis, and life cycle assessment estimate an adipic acid minimum selling price of $3.18/kg, with a 61% decrease in greenhouse gas emissions relative to production from fossil fuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Process innovations to enable viable enzymatic poly(ethylene terephthalate) recycling

Enzymatic depolymerization of poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) has received considerable attention for closed-loop polyester recycling. However, current approaches for enzymatic PET recycling face challenges to achieve commercial viability with lower environmental impacts compared with virgin polyester manufacturing. Here, in this study, we present multiple process innovations for enzymatic PET recycling that enable economic and environmental feasibility. We show that substrate amorphization through extrusion and quenching is energy-efficient and enables near-quantitative enzymatic conversion in 50 h. Using ammonium hydroxide for pH control and thermolysis of the isolated diammonium terephthalate salt reduces the acid and base consumption by >99%, lowering annual operating expenses by 74%. Fed-batch processing increased ethylene glycol concentration, leading to a 65% reduction in energy consumption for ethylene glycol recovery. These improvements were modeled in an optimal process, with recycled PET estimated to be US$\$$1.51 kg -1 relative to US domestic virgin PET at US$\$$1.87 kg -1 and eliminating key life cycle obstacles to scale this technology.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1989

Autonomous space processor for orbital debris

This work continues to develop advanced designs toward the ultimate goal of a GETAWAY SPECIAL to demonstrate economical removal of orbital debris utilizing local resources in orbit. The fundamental technical feasibility was demonstrated last year through theoretical calculations, quantitative computer animation, a solar focal point cutter, a robotic arm design and a subscale model. During this reporting period, several improvements are made in the solar cutter, such as auto track capabilities, better quality reflectors and a more versatile framework. The major advance has been in the design, fabrication and working demonstration of a ROBOTIC ARM that has several degrees of freedom. The functions were specifically tailored for the orbital debris handling. These advances are discussed here. Also a small fraction of the resources were allocated towards research in flame augmentation in SCRAMJETS for the NASP. Here, the fundamental advance was the attainment of Mach numbers up to 0.6 in the flame zone and a vastly improved injection system; the current work is expected to achieve supersonic combustion in the laboratory and an advanced monitoring system.

Ramohalli, Kumar↗

NASA NTRS1990

Autonomous space processor for orbital debris

Advanced designs are being continued to develop the ultimate goal of a GETAWAY special to demonstrate economical removal of orbital debris utilizing local resources in orbit. The fundamental technical feasibility was demonstrated in 1988 through theoretical calculations, quantitative computer animation, a solar focal point cutter, a robotic arm design and a subcase model. Last year improvements were made to the solar cutter and the robotic arm. Also performed last year was a mission analysis which showed the feasibility of retrieve at least four large (greater than 1500 kg) pieces of debris. Advances made during this reporting period are the incorporation of digital control with the existing placement arm, the development of a new robotic manipulator arm, and the study of debris spin attenuation. These advances are discussed.

Ramohalli, Kumar↗

NASA NTRS1990

Autonomous space processor for orbital debris

This work continues to develop advanced designs toward the ultimate goal of a Get Away Special to demonstrate economical removal of orbital debris using local resources in orbit. The fundamental technical feasibility was demonstrated in 1988 through theoretical calculations, quantitative computer animation, a solar focal point cutter, a robotic arm design, and a subscale model. Last year improvements were made to the solar cutter and the robotic arm. Also performed last year was a mission analysis that showed the feasibility of retrieving at least four large (greater than 1500-kg) pieces of debris. Advances made during this reporting period are the incorporation of digital control with the existing placement arm, the development of a new robotic manipulator arm, and the study of debris spin attenuation. These advances are discussed here.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1989

Advanced design for orbital debris removal in support of solar system exploration

This work continues to develop advanced designs toward the ultimate goal of a Getaway Special to demonstrate economical removal of orbital debris utilizing local resources in orbit. The fundamental technical feasibility was demonstrated last year through theoretical calculations, quantitative computer animation, a solar focal point cutter, a robotic arm design, and a subscale model. During this reporting period, several improvements are made in the solar cutter, such as auto track capabilities, better quality reflectors, and a more versatile framework. The major advance has been in the design, fabrication, and working demonstration of a robotic arm that has several degrees of freedom. The functions were specifically tailored for the orbital debris handling. These advances are discussed. Also, a small fraction of the resources were allocated toward research in flame augmentation in scramjets for the NASP. Here, the fundamental advance has been the attainment of Mach numbers up to 0.6 in the flame zone and a vastly improved injection system; our current work is expected to achieve supersonic combustion in the laboratory and an advanced monitoring system.

Campbell, David↗

NASA NTRS1978

Statement of Doctor Robert A. Frosch, Administrator, National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Short term views must be taken in order to concentrate on the foundations and steps to be followed in the next 10 years so that the need for, economics, and tangible values of long range dreams can be fully understood. Although the technological basis for many projected applications already exist, there is difficulty in obtaining funding for the initial steps toward the realization of any venture unless a quantitative basis can be demonstrated for the costs and benefits to be achieved. Computations are exaggerated for space systems because of their extreme front-end capitalization problems. The investment for satellite solar-powered satellite systems is comparable in magnitude to that contemplated for other energy systems, although there is a difference in the economics of the problem and in the technologies of the problem.

Frosch, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Nimbus 3 and 4 Observations of Snow Cover and Other Hydrological Features in the Western Himalayas

Photographs from the Nimbus 3 and 4 image dissector camera systems and high resolution infrared radiometers illustrate and demonstrate their applicability in observing snow cover and other hydrological features. This collection of imagery shows the relative merits of daily observations of these features in the visible, near infrared, and far infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum with sensors having nominal spatial resolutions between 4 and 8 kilometers. Particular emphasis has been placed on observing features associated with the Indus River because of the economic and social importance of this in the lives of millions of people. The overall results clearly indicate that it is feasible to monitor quantitatively the extent of the snow cover over the Indus River watershed during a given year and from one year to another using meteorological satellite imagery.

Salomonson, V. V.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar Energy Technical Publications Catalog: Solar Thermal Technology

The research and development described in these documents was conducted within the U.S . Department of Energy's (DOE) Solar Thermal Technology Program. The goal of this program is to advance the engineering and scientific understanding of solar thermal technology and to establish the technology base from which private industry can develop solar thermal power production options for introduction into the competitive energy market. Solar thermal technology concentrates the solar flux using tracking mirrors or lenses onto a receiver where the solar energy is absorbed as heat and converted into electricity or incorporated into products as process heat. The two primary solar thermal technologies, central receivers and distributed receivers, employ various point and line-focus optics to concentrate sunlight. Current central receiver systems use fields of heliostats (two-axis tracking mirrors) to focus the sun's radiant energy onto a single, tower- mounted receiver. Point focus concentrators up to 17 meters in diameter track the sun in two axes and use parabolic dish mirrors or Fresnel lenses to focus radiant energy onto a receiver. Troughs and bowls are line-focus tracking reflectors that concentrate sunlight onto receiver tubes along their focal lines. Concentrating collector modules can be used alone or in a multimodule system. The concentrated radiant energy absorbed by the solar thermal receiver is transported to the conversion process by a circulating work fluid. Receiver temperatures range from l00 degrees C in low-temperature troughs to over 1500 degrees C in dish and central receiver systems. The Solar Thermal Technology Program is directing efforts to advance and improve each system concept through solar thermal materials, components, and subsystems research and development and by testing and evaluation. These efforts are carried out with the technical direction of DOE and its network of field laboratories that works with private industry. Together they have established a comprehensive, goal-directed program to improve performance and provide technically proven options for eventual incorporation into the nation's energy supply. To successfully contribute to an adequate energy supply at reasonable cost, solar thermal energy must be economically competitive with a variety of other energy sources. The Solar Thermal Technology Program has developed components and system-level performance targets as quantitative program goals. These targets are used in planning research and development activities, measuring progress, assessing alternative technology options, and developing optimal components. These targets are pursued vigorously to ensure a successful program. This catalog represents part of an effort to provide information on publications about solar thermal research and development activities conducted by DOE's laboratories. Publications listed include technical and research reports and special publications. The following national laboratories are represented in this edition: Sandia National Laboratories, Solar Energy Research Institute, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This catalog is a product of the DOE Solar Technical Information Program, which is dedicated to providing information to scientific and industrial users in ways most convenient and useful to them. This catalog focuses on solar thermal technologies, and its purpose is to keep the scientific and industrial communities informed of the latest developments in federally sponsored research in this technology.

140000* -- Solar Energy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.

Consistent coupling of disciplinary analyses↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Global Market Demand Analysis to Guide Conceptual Design of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports

This paper uses a mathematical framework to identify the interdependencies of key variables in supersonic transportation demand analysis. The existing quantitative models for supersonic transportation demand analysis are compared for consistency in modeling the interdependencies. Unlike other quantitative models, the Low-Boom Systems Analysis Model (LBSAM2) can propagate important design characteristics of a supersonic transport aircraft concept to the level of economic metrics (such as the number of future supersonic passengers), with a consistent coupling of the market demand analysis, detailed mission analysis, and low-boom constraint. This allows the use of the detailed demand analysis results from LBSAM2 to maximize the economic viability of a supersonic transport aircraft by finding favorable system-level trades between weight, range, fuel burn, and assumed sonic boom ground noise limit for supersonic overland flight. In this paper, LBSAM2 is integrated with conceptual low-boom design to improve the economic viability of low-boom supersonic transport aircraft. A brief discussion of uncertainties in the LBSAM2 analysis is also included, focusing on their impacts on the relative economic advantages between low-boom concepts.

Equilibrium state of supersonic market↗

DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bringing solar to agriculture: An interdisciplinary design and analysis of a Concord grape agrivoltaic system

Agrivoltaics presents an opportunity to integrate solar photovoltaics (PV) with agricultural production, but crop-specific challenges and operational constraints remain underexplored. This study develops and evaluates a Concord grape agrivoltaic system in the Lake Erie American Viticulture Area, where vineyards face economic pressures and land use conflicts with solar development. Starting with vertical, tracking, and overhead PV systems, we model photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) reduction in grapevines and power generation losses from shading using the Agrivoltaic Radiation Tool (ART). Based on these results, which indicate 0.47 % annual grapevine PPFD loss for vertical designs, 1.6 % for tracking, and up to 25 % for the overhead systems, the vertical and tracking designs are selected for further computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to evaluate airflow interactions. CFD results show that vertical panels do not significantly impact airflow through the grapevine canopy, and that tracking systems in horizontal position may enhance airflow compared to a vine-only scenario. Considering operational constraints for tracking systems, the vertical design is selected for an economic evaluation to reveal key financial outcomes for solar developers (14-year payback period) and growers ($408 reduction in financial losses per acre annually). A sensitivity analysis quantifies uncertainty in power generation (±8.8 %) and PPFD (±5.0 %), ensuring model robustness across different vineyard conditions. Furthermore, these findings provide quantitative evidence for the feasibility of Concord grape agrivoltaics, demonstrating a synergistic opportunity for dual-use solar while preserving cultural heritage in grape-growing regions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2010

Climate Change, Nutrition and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Food security and nutrition in sub-Saharan Africa have long been affected by variations in the weather. Vulnerability to these hazards, along with economic shocks and an adverse political environment, is often uneven in a community. Some individuals and households are more susceptible to emergencies or crises than others, and thus determining who is most vulnerable are and how they are responding to a shock or crises is essential to understand the impact on food security. Daily, quantitative and global observations derived from satellite remote sensing instruments can contribute to understanding how food production has declined due to drought, flood or other weather-related hazard, but it can say nothing about the likelihood that the people living in that area are suffering food insecurity as a result. As Amartya Sen argued, a famine can occur even when there is an absolute surplus of food in a region. Thus organizations like the US Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) work to integrate biophysical and socio-economic indicators together with on-the ground assessments to estimate the food security consequences of a variety of events. Climate change is likely to restructure local, regional and global agricultural systems and commodity markets. Although remote sensing information has been used to identify seasonal production declines for the past two decades, new ways of using the data will need to be developed in order to understand, document and respond to the impact of climate change on food security as it is manifested in shorter term shocks. In this article, the contribution of remote sensing is explained, along with the other factors that affect food security

Brown, Molly E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ambient energy for buildings: Beyond energy efficiency

The following Key Messages comprise the salient findings of this study: 1. Ambient energy (from sun, air, ground, and sky) can heat and cool buildings; provide hot water, ventilation and daylighting; dry clothes; and cook food. These services account for about three-quarters of building energy consumption and a third of total US demand. Biophilic design (direct and indirect connections with nature) is an intrinsic adjunct to ambient energy systems, and improves wellness and human performance. 2. The current strategy of electrification and energy efficiency for buildings will not meet our climate goals, because the transition to an all-renewable electric grid is too slow. Widespread adoption of ambient energy is needed. Solar-heated buildings also flatten the seasonal demand for electricity compared to all-electric buildings, reducing required production capacity and long-term energy storage. In addition, ambient-conditioned buildings improve resilience by remaining livable during power outages. 3. National policies, incentives, and marketing should be enacted to promote ambient energy use. Federal administrative priorities should reflect the importance of ambient energy for buildings. Use of ambient energy should be encouraged through existing and new building codes and standards. 4. Ambient energy system design tools are needed for architects, engineers, builders, building scientists, realtors, appraisers, and consumers. PVWatts is used over 100 million times per year for photovoltaic system design. A similar, simple, and accessible tool for ambient design is crucial. 5. Training on ambient energy is needed throughout secondary, post-secondary, and continuing education for workforce development. Currently, only about 10% of colleges teach courses on passive heating and cooling systems. 6. Ambient-conditioned buildings should be demonstrated in all US climate zones. Performance should be monitored and reported, with quantitative case studies made widely available. 7. While current technology is sufficient to build high-performance ambient buildings now, research is needed to develop new technologies to harness ambient energy more effectively and more economically. Such advancements will facilitate adoption of ambient energy technologies in a wider range of buildings, including retrofits. Examples include windows with much lower thermal losses, use of the building shell as thermal storage, alternative light-weight thermal storage systems, sky radiation cooling systems, automated controls for solar gains and passive cooling, and ground coupling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗