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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Shifts in rain-snow partitioning drive faster water transit times in the US Pacific Northwest

Water transit times strongly influence water quality, temperature, and seasonal hydrologic response of river systems. How water transit times may shift under future climates remains unconstrained, especially in mountainous regions experiencing rapid snowpack declines. Here, we estimated historical (2006–2013) and future (2086–2093) water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest using sequential precipitation input tagging within the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model. Our results indicate water transit times are 18% (35–64 days) faster on average under the Representative Carbon Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate scenario due to shifts in rain-snow partitioning, with higher fractions of younger water in the wet season and older water in the dry season. These results suggest shifts in rain-snow partitioning in snowmelt dominated catchments of the Pacific Northwest will shorten water transit times leading to likely impacts on regional water quality, temperature, and hydrologic seasonality.

Butler, Zachariah [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tunable phase-change metasurfaces coupled with mid-infrared molecular vibrations

Chiral optical metasurfaces have emerged as a promising platform in coupling with molecular vibrational fingerprints through the enhanced light-matter interaction under different circularly polarized light illumination. Here, this work reports the mode coupling between the mid-infrared phonon vibrations of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) molecules and the thermally tunable chiral metasurfaces based on the phase-change material Ge₂Sb₂Te₅ (GST-225). Phase-change chiral metasurfaces with high circular dichroism (CD) in absorption and tunable plasmonic resonance in the frequency range of 48–56 THz are demonstrated, which covers the phonon vibrational frequency of PMMA molecules at 52 THz. The mode splitting features are observed in the absorption and CD spectra when the metasurface resonance is tuned across the phonon vibrational frequency of PMMA molecules during the phase transition of GST-225. The underlying mechanism of molecule-metasurface coupling is further revealed by studying the electric field and power loss density distributions of the phonon–plasmon coupled modes under both left-handed and right-handed circularly polarized (LCP and RCP) light. The demonstrated results show the potential of dynamically tunable chiral metasurfaces for the applications in label-free molecular sensing, biomedical diagnostics, thermal imaging, and mid-infrared photonics.

Tang, Haotian [Missouri Univ. of Science and Techn↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shrub Expansion Simulations at Trail Valley Creek Tundra site using E3SM Land Model (ELM) Arctic-focused Version

The warming of the Arctic is causing substantial compositional, structural, and functional changes in tundra vegetation including shrub and densification in parts of the Arctic. Assessing the impact of these changes in vegetation composition on the Arctic’s carbon and energy budgets is important to constrain projected local and global surface-atmosphere exchanges. We conduct a sensitivity analysis of the projected surface energy fluxes, soil carbon pools, and carbon dioxide fluxes (net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production, and ecosystem respiration) between present day and 2100 to different shrub expansion rates and air temperature increases under future emission scenarios (intermediate – RCP4.5, and high – RCP8.5) using the Arctic-focused version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). We focus on Trail Valley Creek (TVC), a mineral upland tundra site located in the western Canadian Arctic, which is experiencing tall shrub densification and expansion. In this study, we run TVC under two different warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 and simulate different shrubification rates projected until year 2100. In this repository, we include all the forcing, input, parameters, and output data corresponding to all the simulations performed. flmd.csv includes a detailed description of the datasets files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection Description This dataset contains input and output data for the manuscript Mongird, K. et al. (under review) titled "Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection". Input data corresponds to gridded spatial siting attributes that are necessary to conduct a random forest machine learning analysis of siting feature importance. Output data includes SHAP feature analysis outputs, and classification report values. For data on power plant siting results referred to in the manuscript, please refer to the CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations data download page. The downloadable data includes values for eight different future scenarios for the Western US. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Technical Information The dataset includes two sets of data files: (1) CERF gridded siting parameters and (2) Feature analysis outputs and classification reports. All downloadable data is in csv file format. Files with x/y coordinate information use the Albers Equal Area Conic projection (ESRI:102003). 1. CERF Gridded Siting Parameters This directory provides a balanced sample of gridded CERF siting parameters data for eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055, seven different technologies, and eight timesteps. This data serves as input to the feature analysis. It contains the following parameters. region_name - name of region (i.e., state) sited - binary value representing whether the grid cell received a siting of that technology type (1=True) rcp - binary value representing scenario resource concentration pathway (0 = RCP4.5, 1 = RCP8.5) ssp - binary value representing scenario shared socioeconomic pathway (0 = SSP3, 1 = SSP5) climate - binary value representing cooler (0) or hotter (1) GCM forcing tech_name - generation technology name sited_year - year that values correspond to transmission_cost - cost of transmission interconnection pipeline_cost - cost of natural gas pipeline interconnection interconnection_cost - total interconnection cost (sum of transmission cost and gas pipeline cost) lmp - associated locational marginal value ($/MWh) associated with the grid cell, timestep, scenario, and technology xcoord - x-coordinate of location ycoord - y-coordinate of location 2a. Feature Analysis Output The dataset includes the feature analysis shap output for locational marginal price and interconnection cost. It contains the following parameters. technology - generator technology name scenario - name of scenario feature - name of feature, either locational_marginal_price or interconnection_cost value - the mean of absolute value of SHAP values for given feature 2b. Feature Analysis Classification Report This download includes the classification report associated with each random forest model. The dataset contains the following parameters. technology - generation technology name scenario - name of scenario test - one of precision (the proportion of predicted positives that are actually correct), recall (the proportion of actual positives that were correctly identified), f1-score (the harmonic mean of precision and recall) 0.0 - value of test for classification of 0 (grid cell not chosen for siting) 1.0 - value of test for classification of 1 (grid cell chosen for siting) accuracy - accuracy of model (i.e., fraction of all predictions that were right) macro avg - Simple average of test values for all classes weighted avg - Weighted average of test values for all classes, weighted based on Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
NASA NTRS1980

Planetary observations with the Tidbinbilla interferometer

Radio observations at a wavelength of 13.1 cm of Saturn and Uranus made with the Tidbinbilla interferometer during 1978 and 1979 are summarized. The observations were made with 64-m and 26-m antennas on a 200-m north-south baseline at a bandwidth of 12 MHz with RCP polarization and a primary beamwidth of about 12 arcmin. A flux density of 198 + or - 15 mJy was measured for Saturn, which indicates a surface temperature, corrected for the occulting effect of the rings, of 191 + or - 15 K, in excellent agreement with previous determinations. With the use of a background subtraction technique to remove the local background confusion, Uranus was found to have a flux density of 11.7 + or - 0.8 mJy, indicating a disk-averaged brightness temperature of 255 + or - 18 K. The increase in Uranus brightness temperature over that measured 15 years previously is attributed to variations in temperature or opacity below the cloud tops, or to a reduction in relative ammonia abundance most likely reflecting a change in the aspect of the planet as viewed from earth.

Batty, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

On the relationship between the greenhouse effect, atmospheric photochemistry, and species distribution

The coupling that exists between infrared opacity changes and tropospheric (and to a lesser extent stratospheric) chemistry is explored in considerable detail, and the effects arising from various perturbations are examined. The studies are carried out with a fully coupled one-dimensional radiative-convective-photochemical model (RCP) that extends from the surface to 53.5 km and has the capability of calculating surface temperature changes due to both chemical and radiative perturbations. The model encompasses contemporary atmospheric chemistry and photochemistry involving the O(x), HO(x), NO(x), and Cl(x) species.

Callis, L. B.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Physical optics analysis of a 4-reflector antenna, part 2

The results of a rigorous analysis of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-m antenna S-band (2.295-GHz) RF performance are presented. Previous estimation of 1.6 dB S-band gain improvement of the 70-m antenna over the 64-m antenna has been revised to 1.5 dB by this analysis. The S-band right circularly polarized (RCP) beam position offset relative to X-band (8.45-GHz) beam position is predicted to be 0.0045 deg. (0.04 beamwidth). The effective S-band gain loss resulting from non-coincidence with the X-band is predicted to be 0.02 dB. Therefore, this is no longer a concern for the 64-m to 70-m upgrade project.

Cha, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Analysis of the ICE combiner for multiple antenna arraying

The passage of the International Cometary Explorer (ICE) through the tail of comet Giacobini-Zinner took place on September 11, 1985, at approximately 11:04 GMT. The signal-to-noise ratio of the data received from the ICE spacecraft during the comet encounter was improved by arraying the 64-m antenna channels A and B (RCP and LCP) with the two 34-m antennas. Specially designed combiners were built to combine the signals received by the three antennas at the different DSN sites to ensure that the spacecraft's weak signal was received. Although the ICE spacecraft was built with a 5-W transmitter and with a small antenna designed to provide data from no farther than 1 million miles, these combiners provided enough signal margin during the encounter to receive the ICE transmitted data from within the tail of comet Giacobini-Zinner, 44 million miles from earth.

Foster, C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Development and evaluation of superconducting circuit elements

An approach to the application of high Tc ceramic superconductors to practical circuit elements was developed and demonstrated. This method, known as the rigid-conductor process (RCP), involves the combination of a pre-formed, sintered, and tested superconductor material with an appropriate, rigid substrate via an epoxy adhesive which also serves to encapsulate the element from the ambient environment. Emphasis was on the practical means to achieve functional, reliable, and reproducible components. Although all of the work described in this report involved a YBa2Cu3Osub(7-x) high Tc superconductor material, the techniques developed and conclusions reached are equally applicable to other high Tc materials.

Haertling, Gene H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ceramic superconducting components

An approach to the application of high-Tc ceramic superconductors to practical circuit elements was developed and demonstrated. This method, known as the rigid conductor process (RCP), involves the mounting of a preformed, sintered, and tested superconductor material onto an appropriate, rigid substrate with an epoxy adhesive which also serves to encapsulate the element from the ambient environment. Circuit elements such as straight conductors, coils and connectors were fabricated from YBa2Cu3O(7-x) superconducting material. Performance results are included for a low-noise low-thermal-conductivity superconducting grounding link for NASA.

Haertling, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Network issues for large mass storage requirements

File Servers and Supercomputing environments need high performance networks to balance the I/O requirements seen in today's demanding computing scenarios. UltraNet is one solution which permits both high aggregate transfer rates and high task-to-task transfer rates as demonstrated in actual tests. UltraNet provides this capability as both a Server-to-Server and Server-to-Client access network giving the supercomputing center the following advantages highest performance Transport Level connections (to 40 MBytes/sec effective rates); matches the throughput of the emerging high performance disk technologies, such as RAID, parallel head transfer devices and software striping; supports standard network and file system applications using SOCKET's based application program interface such as FTP, rcp, rdump, etc.; supports access to the Network File System (NFS) and LARGE aggregate bandwidth for large NFS usage; provides access to a distributed, hierarchical data server capability using DISCOS UniTree product; supports file server solutions available from multiple vendors, including Cray, Convex, Alliant, FPS, IBM, and others.

Perdue, James↗
NASA NTRS1995

An Investigation of Multipath Effects on the GPS System During Auto-Rendezvous and Capture

The proposed use of a Cargo Transport Vehicle (CTV) to carry hardware to the Space Station Freedom (SSF) during the construction phase of the SSF project requires remote maneuvering of the CTV. The CTV is not a manned vehicle. Obtaining the relative positions of the CTV and SSF for remote auto-rendezvous and capture (AR&C) scenarios will rely heavily on the Global Positioning System (GPS). The GPS system is expected to guide the CTV up to a distance of 100 to 300 meters from the SSF. At some point within this range, an optical docking system will take over the remote guidance for capture. During any remote guidance by GPS it is possible that significant multipath signals may be caused by large objects in the vicinity of the module being remotely guided. This could alter the position obtained by the GPS system from the actual position. Due to the nature of the GPS signals, it has been estimated that if the difference in distance between the Line of Sight (LOS) path and the multipath is greater than 300 meters, the GPS system is capable of discriminating between the direct signal and the reflected (or multipath) signal. However, if the path difference is less than 300 meters, one must be concerned. This report details the work accomplished by the Electromagnetic Simulations Laboratory at Marquette University over the period December 1993 to May 1995. This work is an investigation of the strength and phase of a multipath signal arriving at the CTV relative to the direct or line of sight (LOS) signal. The signal originates at a GPS satellite in half geo-stationary orbit and takes two paths to the CTV: (1) the direct or LOS path from the GPS satellite to the CTV; and (2) a scattered path from the GPS satellite to the SSF module and then to the CTV. The scattering from a cylinder has been computed using the physical optics approximation for the current. No other approximations or assumptions have been made including no assumptions regarding the far field or Fresnel field approximations. The integrations required to obtain the scattered field have been computed numerically using an N dimensional Romberg integration. The total scattered electric field is then projected onto the RCP component in the direction of propagation only. The direct or line of sight signal is then used to compute the relative strength and phase of the scattered field. The trajectory of the CTV has been parameterized into 4,214 points that are calculated for each of the geometries investigated. The motion of the CTV between points is small enough for the magnitude data (dB down from direct signal) to appear very smooth; however, because of the distances and wavelengths involved, the phase of the scattered field relative to the direct signal varies very rapidly.

Richie, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Parallel Eclipse Project Checkout

Parallel Eclipse Project Checkout (PEPC) is a program written to leverage parallelism and to automate the checkout process of plug-ins created in Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform). Eclipse plug-ins can be aggregated in a feature project. This innovation digests a feature description (xml file) and automatically checks out all of the plug-ins listed in the feature. This resolves the issue of manually checking out each plug-in required to work on the project. To minimize the amount of time necessary to checkout the plug-ins, this program makes the plug-in checkouts parallel. After parsing the feature, a request to checkout for each plug-in in the feature has been inserted. These requests are handled by a thread pool with a configurable number of threads. By checking out the plug-ins in parallel, the checkout process is streamlined before getting started on the project. For instance, projects that took 30 minutes to checkout now take less than 5 minutes. The effect is especially clear on a Mac, which has a network monitor displaying the bandwidth use. When running the client from a developer s home, the checkout process now saturates the bandwidth in order to get all the plug-ins checked out as fast as possible. For comparison, a checkout process that ranged from 8-200 Kbps from a developer s home is now able to saturate a pipe of 1.3 Mbps, resulting in significantly faster checkouts. Eclipse IDE (integrated development environment) tries to build a project as soon as it is downloaded. As part of another optimization, this innovation programmatically tells Eclipse to stop building while checkouts are happening, which dramatically reduces lock contention and enables plug-ins to continue downloading until all of them finish. Furthermore, the software re-enables automatic building, and forces Eclipse to do a clean build once it finishes checking out all of the plug-ins. This software is fully generic and does not contain any NASA-specific code. It can be applied to any Eclipse-based repository with a similar structure. It also can apply build parameters and preferences automatically at the end of the checkout.

Crockett, Thomas M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) for Rapid Mission Architecture (Version 1.2)

Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) is designed to capture quickly ideas in the early spacecraft and mission architecture design and categorize them into trade space dimensions and options for later analysis. It is implemented as an Eclipse RCP Application, which can be run as a standalone program. Users rapidly create concept items with single clicks on a graphical canvas, and can organize and create linkages between the ideas using drag-and-drop actions within the same graphical view. Various views such as a trade view, rules view, and architecture view are provided to help users to visualize the trade space. This software can identify, explore, and assess aspects of the mission trade space, as well as capture and organize linkages/dependencies between trade space components. The tool supports a user-in-the-loop preliminary logical examination and filtering of trade space options to help identify which paths in the trade space are feasible (and preferred) and what analyses need to be done later with executable models. This tool provides multiple user views of the trade space to guide the analyst/team to facilitate interpretation and communication of the trade space components and linkages, identify gaps in combining and selecting trade space options, and guide user decision-making for which combinations of architectural options should be pursued for further evaluation. This software provides an environment to capture mission trade space elements rapidly and assist users for their architecture analysis. This is primarily focused on mission and spacecraft architecture design, rather than general-purpose design application. In addition, it provides more flexibility to create concepts and organize the ideas. The software is developed as an Eclipse plug-in and potentially can be integrated with other Eclipse-based tools.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Response of the North American Monsoon to Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing

[1] We analyze the response of the North American Monsoon (NAM) to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (emissions scenario RCP 8.5) using new simulations available through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5). Changes in total monsoon season rainfall with GHG warming are small and insignificant. The models do, however, show significant declines in early monsoon season precipitation (June-July) and increases in late monsoon season (September-October) precipitation, indicating a shift in seasonality toward delayed onset and withdrawal of the monsoon. Early in the monsoon season, tropospheric warming increases vertical stability, reinforced by reductions in available surface moisture, inhibiting precipitation and delaying the onset of the monsoon. By the end of the monsoon season, moisture convergence is sufficient to overcome the warming induced stability increases, and precipitation is enhanced. Even with no change in total NAM rainfall, shifts in the seasonal distribution of precipitation within the NAM region are still likely to have significant societal and ecological consequences, reinforcing the need to not only understand the magnitude, but also the timing, of future precipitation changes.

rain↗
NASA NTRS2013

Interactive Ozone and Methane Chemistry in GISS-E2 Historical and Future Climate Simulations

The new generation GISS climate model includes fully interactive chemistry related to ozone in historical and future simulations, and interactive methane in future simulations. Evaluation of ozone, its tropospheric precursors, and methane shows that the model captures much of the largescale spatial structure seen in recent observations. While the model is much improved compared with the previous chemistry-climate model, especially for ozone seasonality in the stratosphere, there is still slightly too rapid stratospheric circulation, too little stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux in the Southern Hemisphere and an Antarctic ozone hole that is too large and persists too long. Quantitative metrics of spatial and temporal correlations with satellite datasets as well as spatial autocorrelation to examine transport and mixing are presented to document improvements in model skill and provide a benchmark for future evaluations. The difference in radiative forcing (RF) calculated using modeled tropospheric ozone versus tropospheric ozone observed by TES is only 0.016W/sq. m. Historical 20th Century simulations show a steady increase in whole atmosphere ozone RF through 1970 after which there is a decrease through 2000 due to stratospheric ozone depletion. Ozone forcing increases throughout the 21st century under RCP8.5 owing to a projected recovery of stratospheric ozone depletion and increases in methane, but decreases under RCP4.5 and 2.6 due to reductions in emissions of other ozone precursors. RF from methane is 0.05 to 0.18W/ sq. m higher in our model calculations than in the RCP RF estimates. The surface temperature response to ozone through 1970 follows the increase in forcing due to tropospheric ozone. After that time, surface temperatures decrease as ozone RF declines due to stratospheric depletion. The stratospheric ozone depletion also induces substantial changes in surface winds and the Southern Ocean circulation, which may play a role in a slightly stronger response per unit forcing during later decades. Tropical precipitation shifts south during boreal summer from 1850 to 1970, but then shifts northward from 1970 to 2000, following upper tropospheric temperature gradients more strongly than those at the surface.

Ozone↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Ozone (O3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m−2. The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O3 produces a spread (+/-1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/-17%. Three different radiation schemes were used - we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/-10 percent. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/-3 percent. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/-30 percent for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44+/-12 percent), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 percent), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 percent) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 percent); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(−2) DU(−1), a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(−2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.

climate change↗