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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

GCAM-Demeter-LU

This GCAM-Demeter-LU is made available under the Open Data Commons Attribution License:http://opendatacommons.org/licenses/by/1.0/. The dataset includes the projected global gridded land cover (excluding the Antarctic) for the period of 2015-2100 at 0.05-degree resolution and 5-year time step under fifteen SSP-RCP scenarios driven by five GCMs (i.e., gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a geospatial downscaling model (Demeter). The data has been stored in self-describing NetCDF format. The dataset also includes the mean and standard deviation of the results driven by the five GCMs. More specifically, the data in each year includes grid-explicit fraction (in percent) of each of the 32 plant functional types that are widely used in current Earth system models. The NetCDF files are named as “GCAM_Demeter_LU_SSP_RCP_Model_Year.nc”, where “SSP” and “RCP” denote the SSP and RCP scenarios, including 'ssp1_rcp26', 'ssp1_rcp45', 'ssp1_rcp60', 'ssp2_rcp26', 'ssp2_rcp45', 'ssp2_rcp60', 'ssp3_rcp45', 'ssp3_rcp60', 'ssp4_rcp26', 'ssp4_rcp45', 'ssp4_rcp60', 'ssp5_rcp26', 'ssp5_rcp45', 'ssp5_rcp60', and 'ssp5_rcp85'. “Year” denotes the year of the land use data, and “GCM” denotes the source driving forcing data from five global climate models (gfdl, hadgem, ipsl, miroc, and noresm), or the mean (“modelmean”) and the standard deviation (“modelstd”) of the results from the five GCMs.See https://github.com/JGCRI/chen_et_al_2020a for details on how to reproduce this data. Rights and permissions Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ applies to the metadata files associated with this article

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios

Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of globalscenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combiningshared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes asdescribed by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was createdby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China'sfuture anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed tointegrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamicprojection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The modelcontains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projectionmodule and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rateprojection module provides the standardized and unified future energyscenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy systemmodel. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global ChangeAssessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply inChina under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. Theemission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, theMulti-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China andaccurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologiesand control measures under different environmental policies. We developedtechnology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g.coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportationsectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleetturnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annualbasis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios(SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and threepollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced controlpolicy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emissionscenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's futureemissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We foundthat, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollutioncontrol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major airpollutants (i.e. SO 2 , NO x , PM 2.5 , and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China willbe reduced by 34%–66% in 2030 and 58%–87% in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important rolein continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissionswill remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without activeactions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from theCMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates ofemission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Formal design and verification of a reliable computing platform for real-time control (phase 3 results)

In this paper the design and formal verification of the lower levels of the Reliable Computing Platform (RCP), a fault-tolerant computing system for digital flight control applications, are presented. The RCP uses NMR-style redundancy to mask faults and internal majority voting to flush the effects of transient faults. Two new layers of the RCP hierarchy are introduced: the Minimal Voting refinement (DA_minv) of the Distributed Asynchronous (DA) model and the Local Executive (LE) Model. Both the DA_minv model and the LE model are specified formally and have been verified using the Ehdm verification system. All specifications and proofs are available electronically via the Internet using anonymous FTP or World Wide Web (WWW) access.

Butler, Ricky W.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Advanced Reference Counting Pointers for Better Performance

A computer program implements reference counting pointers (RCPs) that are lock-free, thread-safe, async-safe, and operational on a multiprocessor computer. RCPs are powerful and convenient means of managing heap memory in C++ software. Most prior RCP programs use locks to ensure thread safety and manage concurrency. The present program was developed in a continuing effort to explore ways of using the C++ programming language to develop safety-critical and mission- critical software. This effort includes exploration of lock-free algorithms because they offer potential to avoid some costly and difficult verification problems. Unlike previously published RCP software, the present program does not use locks (meaning that no thread can block progress on another thread): Instead, this program implements algorithms that exploit capabilities of central-processing- unit hardware so as to avoid locks. Once locks are eliminated, it becomes possible to realize the other attributes mentioned in the first sentence. In addition to the abovementioned attributes, this program offers several advantages over other RCP programs that use locks: It is smaller (and, hence, is faster and uses less memory), it is immune to priority inversion, and there is no way for it to cause a C++ exception.

Reinholtz, William↗
NASA NTRS2014

Collaborative WorkBench for Researchers - Work Smarter, Not Harder

It is important to define some commonly used terminology related to collaboration to facilitate clarity in later discussions. We define provisioning as infrastructure capabilities such as computation, storage, data, and tools provided by some agency or similarly trusted institution. Sharing is defined as the process of exchanging data, programs, and knowledge among individuals (often strangers) and groups. Collaboration is a specialized case of sharing. In collaboration, sharing with others (usually known colleagues) is done in pursuit of a common scientific goal or objective. Collaboration entails more dynamic and frequent interactions and can occur at different speeds. Synchronous collaboration occurs in real time such as editing a shared document on the fly, chatting, video conference, etc., and typically requires a peer-to-peer connection. Asynchronous collaboration is episodic in nature based on a push-pull model. Examples of asynchronous collaboration include email exchanges, blogging, repositories, etc. The purpose of a workbench is to provide a customizable framework for different applications. Since the workbench will be common to all the customized tools, it promotes building modular functionality that can be used and reused by multiple tools. The objective of our Collaborative Workbench (CWB) is thus to create such an open and extensible framework for the Earth Science community via a set of plug-ins. Our CWB is based on the Eclipse [2] Integrated Development Environment (IDE), which is designed as a small kernel containing a plug-in loader for hundreds of plug-ins. The kernel itself is an implementation of a known specification to provide an environment for the plug-ins to execute. This design enables modularity, where discrete chunks of functionality can be reused to build new applications. The minimal set of plug-ins necessary to create a client application is called the Eclipse Rich Client Platform (RCP) [3]; The Eclipse RCP also supports thousands of community-contributed plug-ins, making it a popular development platform for many diverse applications including the Science Activity Planner developed at JPL for the Mars rovers [4] and the scientific experiment tool Gumtree [5]. By leveraging the Eclipse RCP to provide an open, extensible framework, a CWB supports customizations via plug-ins to build rich user applications specific for Earth Science. More importantly, CWB plug-ins can be used by existing science tools built off Eclipse such as IDL or PyDev to provide seamless collaboration functionalities.

Ramachandran, Rahul↗
NASA NTRS2015

Heat-Related Mortality Projections for Cardiovascular and Respiratory Disease Under the Changing Climate in Beijing, China

Because heat-related health effects tend to become more serious at higher temperatures, there is an urgent need to determine the mortality projection of specific heat-sensitive diseases to provide more detailed information regarding the variation of the sensitivity of such diseases. In this study, the specific mortality of cardiovascular and respiratory disease in Beijing was initially projected under five different global-scale General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to the 1980s. Multi-model ensembles indicated cardiovascular mortality could increase by an average percentage of 18.4 percent, 47.8 percent, and 69.0 percent in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP 4.5, respectively, and by 16.6 percent, 73.8 percent and 134 percent in different decades respectively, under RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline range. The same increasing pattern was also observed in respiratory mortality. The heat-related deaths under the RCP 8.5 scenario were found to reach a higher number and to increase more rapidly during the 21st century compared to the RCP4.5 scenario, especially in the 2050s and the 2080s. The projection results show potential trends in cause-specific mortality in the context of climate change, and provide support for public health interventions tailored to specific climate-related future health risks.

health↗
NASA NTRS2014

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗
NASA NTRS2019

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling↗
DOE OSTI2017

Integral Effect Test of ATLAS Facility on Multiple Failure in a Prolonged Station Blackout

Since the Fukushima accident, the design extension conditions (DECs) in a nuclear power plant (NPP) have attracted more importance with respect to nuclear reactor safety, and a consensus has been developed such that these high-risk multiple failure accidents should be revisited from the viewpoint of a reinforcement of the 'defense in depth' concept. In particular, a station blackout (SBO) is one of the most important DECs because a loss of the heat sink without an appropriate accident measure might lead to a core uncovery, core damage, and ultimately, a core meltdown under high pressure. SBO has been recognized to be one of the risk-contributing sequences when combined with additional failure of components such as a reactor coolant pump (RCP) seal leakage or a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). The RCP seal failure could occur due to a loss of continuous cooling through the seal during SBO. The SGTR during SBO can be a potentially important risk due to the release of the fission product with bypassing the containment boundary. The objective of this study is to experimentally simulate and analyze a prolonged SBO scenario in a thermal hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS. As test items in OECD-ATLAS project, two tests for the SBO condition were conducted with additional failures, that is, a RCP seal failure (A2.1 test) and a SGTR (A2.2 test). In those tests, both the effect of the additional failure on reactor safety and the natural circulation characteristics during prolonged SBO conditions could be investigated. The present test can provide physical insight into the system response during the prolonged SBO scenario combined with the multiple failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Current and future ozone risks to global terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem processes

Abstract Risks associated with exposure of individual plant species to ozone (O 3 ) are well documented, but implications for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem processes have received insufficient attention. This is an important gap because feedbacks to the atmosphere may change as future O 3 levels increase or decrease, depending on air quality and climate policies. Global simulation of O 3 using the Community Earth System Model ( CESM ) revealed that in 2000, about 40% of the Global 200 terrestrial ecoregions ( ER ) were exposed to O 3 above thresholds for ecological risks, with highest exposures in North America and Southern Europe, where there is field evidence of adverse effects of O 3 , and in central Asia. Experimental studies show that O 3 can adversely affect the growth and flowering of plants and alter species composition and richness, although some communities can be resilient. Additional effects include changes in water flux regulation, pollination efficiency, and plant pathogen development. Recent research is unraveling a range of effects belowground, including changes in soil invertebrates, plant litter quantity and quality, decomposition, and nutrient cycling and carbon pools. Changes are likely slow and may take decades to become detectable. CESM simulations for 2050 show that O 3 exposure under emission scenario RCP 8.5 increases in all major biomes and that policies represented in scenario RCP 4.5 do not lead to a general reduction in O 3 risks; rather, 50% of ER s still show an increase in exposure. Although a conceptual model is lacking to extrapolate documented effects to ER s with limited or no local information, and there is uncertainty about interactions with nitrogen input and climate change, the analysis suggests that in many ER s, O 3 risks will persist for biodiversity at different trophic levels, and for a range of ecosystem processes and feedbacks, which deserves more attention when assessing ecological implications of future atmospheric pollution and climate change.

Fuhrer, Jürg↗
DOE OSTI2017

Projected precipitation changes within the Great Lakes and Western Lake Erie Basin: a multi‐model analysis of intensity and seasonality

ABSTRACT The Great Lakes region encompasses the largest freshwater lake network in the world and supports a diverse network of agriculture, transportation, and tourism. Recently, Lake Erie has experienced increased hypoxia events, which have been attributed to agricultural practices and changes in run‐off. Here we examine the projected changes in extreme precipitation events to address concerns regarding regional agriculture, surface run‐off, and subsequent water quality. Precipitation projections within the overall Great Lakes Basin and the Western Lake Erie Basin subregion are examined using climate model simulations of varying spatial resolutions to understand historical precipitation and projected future precipitation. We develop three model ensembles for the historical period (1980–1999) and the mid‐century (2041–2060) that cover a range of spatial resolutions and future emissions scenarios, including: (1) 12 global model members from the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP5 ) using Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP ) 8.5, (2) ten regional climate model ( RCM ) members from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program driven by CMIP3 global models using the A2 emissions scenario, and (3) two high resolution RCM simulations ( RCM4 ) driven by CMIP5 global models using the RCP 8.5 scenario. For the historical period, all model ensembles overestimate winter and spring precipitation, and many of the models simulate a summer drying that is not observed. At mid‐century, most of the models predict a 10–20% increase in precipitation depending on the time of year. Daily probability distribution functions from three model ensembles reveal spring seasonal increases in high precipitation event probabilities when compared to the historical period, suggesting an increase in the frequency of high intensity precipitation at mid‐century. Overall, the presence of lakes or higher spatial resolution does not ensure improved representation of historical processes, and more complex interactions between large‐scale dynamics, local feedbacks, and physical parameterizations drive the model spread.

Basile, Samantha J.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Influence of Ag Substitution on Structural, Critical Behavior and Magnetocaloric Characteristics in La{sub 0.5}Ca{sub 0.5−x}Ag{sub x}MnO{sub 3} (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.1) Systems

Based on the modified Arrott plots and the critical isotherm analysis, the critical exponents of both La{sub 0.5}Ca{sub 0.5}MnO{sub 3} and La{sub 0.5}Ca{sub 0.4}Ag{sub 0.1}MnO{sub 3} systems have been comprehensively studied and investigated near the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic (PM-FM) phase transition. Critical exponents, β, γ, and δ, which are corresponding to the thermal variation of the spontaneous magnetization, initial susceptibility, and the isothermal magnetization, respectively, obeyed the Widom scaling law δ = 1 + γ/β. It indicates thus the validity the obtained results. We performed then another analysis of the critical behavior via the magnetocaloric effect presenting an accord with the analysis of magnetization measurements. Relative cooling power (RCP) follows the evolution of the magnetic field as RCP ∼ H{sup 1+1/δ}. The acquired critical exponents were in conformity with those gotten from the modified Arrott plots and Widom scaling law.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2019

Magnetocaloric Effect in La{sub 0.67}Ba{sub 0.33}Mn{sub 0.95}Ni{sub 0.05}O{sub 3} Manganite Near Room Temperature

We report the structural, magnetic, and magnetocaloric properties of La{sub 0.67}Ba{sub 0.33}Mn{sub 0.95}Ni{sub 0.05}O{sub 3} (LBMNO) manganite, synthesized by sol-gel method. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis using Rietveld refinement showed that this sample crystallizes in the rhombohedral structure with R 3-bar c space group. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis were used to confirm the structure formation of the LBMNO material. The temperature dependent magnetization data revealed a transition from ferromagnetic (FM) to paramagnetic (PM) phase at T{sub C}= 308 K. Using Arrott plots, it was found that the transition is of a second order. From the measured magnetization data as a function of magnetic applied field, the magnetic entropy change (−ΔS{sub M}) and the relative cooling power RCP have been determined. In the vicinity of T{sub C} (−ΔS{sub M}) reached a maximum value of 2.15 J kg{sup − 1} K{sup − 1} and a large RCP value of about 299 J kg{sup − 1} under 5 T{sup − 1}. This magnetocaloric effect has been analyzed by considering the Landau theory of magnetic phase transition. Consequently, our sample can be considered a promising material in room-temperature magnetic refrigeration.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil

In this paper we perform a multi-model comparison to assess strategies for adaptation to climate change impacts in hydropower generation in Brazil under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The approach used allows for evaluating the interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under low and high impact scenarios through 2050. Climate change impact projections of sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that a global emissions trajectory of an RCP 8.5 scenario would likely yield more severe impacts on hydropower generation than an RCP 4.5 scenario. Adaptation modeling suggests that climate change impacts can be compensated by a wide range of alternatives, whose optimality will depend on the level of mitigation effort pursued. Our results show that climate change impacts would lead to even higher emissions in the absence of climate change mitigation policies. On the other hand, mitigation strategies to pursue lower emissions are maintained under climate change impact shocks, meaning that mitigation strategies are robust when faced with adaptation challenges. Mitigation efforts could yield a more diverse and less carbon intensive mix of technological options for adaptation. When including investment costs to adapt to climate change impacts, in some cases mitigation can lead to a lower total investment level.

Lucena, André F. P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of carbon substitution on magnetic properties and magnetocaloric effects in Mn 65-x Ga 17 C 18+x compounds

This study involved the tuning of the magnetic, magnetocaloric, and room-temperature structural properties of Mn 65-x Ga 17 C 18+x (0 ≤ x ≤ 4) compounds prepared using a high-energy ball milling (HEBM) technique. This study indicates that the crystal structure of all the compounds can be described as an anti-perovskite cubic structure with the Pm-3m space group and the crystal cell volume decreases with increasing carbon concentration. The system shows a first-order structural phase transition at a temperature T=T M between two cubic phases having different magnetic structures. The phases are characterized by antiferromagnetic (AFM) and ferromagnetic (FM) -like behavior at low (T < T M ) and high (T M > T) temperature regions, respectively. A suppression of the AFM phase was observed with increasing C concentration. The temperature-induced first-order transitions (FOTs) were found to possess a small thermal hysteresis in the magnetization (~2-3 K) in an applied magnetic field of H = 50 kOe. Magnetic entropy changes estimated from isothermal magnetization curves indicate that the largest value of the magnetic entropy change of |ΔS M | = 2.1 J kg -1 K -1 for x = 4 with ΔH = 50 kOe, with a relative cooling power (RCP) of ~190 J kg -1 . Furthermore, high-energy ball milling (HEBM), a scalable technique, has been demonstrated as a viable method to synthesize magnetocaloric materials with substantial RCP values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗