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NASA NTRS2007

Application of Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis to Floods and Landslides

Satellite data acquired and processed in real time now have the potential to provide the spacetime information on rainfall needed to monitor flood and landslide events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models and landslide algorithms. Progress in using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as input to flood and landslide forecasts is outlined, with a focus on understanding limitations of the rainfall data and impacts of those limitations on flood/landslide analyses. Case studies of both successes and failures will be shown, as well as comparison with ground comparison data sets both in terms of rainfall and in terms of flood/landslide events. In addition to potential uses in real-time, the nearly ten years of TMPA data allow retrospective running of the models to examine variations in extreme events. The flood determination algorithm consists of four major components: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission), topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flow direction, flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) a hydrological model to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay the input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to potential users and decision-makers. In terms of landslides, the satellite rainfall information is combined with a global landslide susceptibility map, derived from a combination of global surface characteristics (digital elevation topography, slope, soil types, soil texture, and land cover classification etc.) using a weighted linear combination approach. In those areas identified as "susceptible" (based on the surface characteristics), landslides are forecast where and when a rainfall intensity/duration threshold is exceeded. Results are described indicating general agreement with landslide occurrences. However, difficulties in comparing landslide event information (mostly from news reports) with the satellite-based forecasts are analyzed.

Adler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1993

Evolution of the global water cycle on Mars: The geological evidence

The geological evidence for active water cycling early in the history of Mars (Noachian geological system or heavy bombardment) consists almost exclusively of fluvial valley networks in the heavily cratered uplands of the planet. It is commonly assumed that these landforms required explanation by atmospheric processes operating above the freezing point of water and at high pressure to allow rainfall and liquid surface runoff. However, it has also been documented that nearly all valley networks probably formed by subsurface outflow and sapping erosion involving groundwater outflow prior to surface-water flow. The prolonged ground-water flow also requires extensive water cycling to maintain hydraulic gradients, but is this done via rainfall recharge, as in terrestrial environments?

Baker, V. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Remote identification of a gravel laden Pleistocene river bed

The abundance of gravel deposits is well known in certain areas across the Gulf of Mexico coastal plain, including lands within several National Forests. These Pleistocene gravels were deposited following periods of glacial buildup when ocean levels were down and the main river channels had cut deep gorges, leaving the subsidiary streams with increased gradients to reach the main channels. During the warm interglacial periods that followed each glaciation, melting ice brought heavy rainfall and torrents of runoff carrying huge sediment loads that separated into gravel banks below these steeper reaches where abraiding streams, developed. As the oceans rose again, filling in the main channels, these abraiding areas were gradually flattened and covered over by progressively finer material. Older terraces were uplifted by tectonic movements associated with the Gulf Coastal Plain, and the subsequent erosional processes gradually brought the gravels closer to the surface. The study area is located on the Kisatchie National Forest, in central Louisiana, near Alexandria. Details of the full study have been discussed elsewhere. The nearest source of chert is in the Ouachita Mountains located to the northeast. The Ouachita River flows south, out of these mountains, and in Pleistocene times probably carried these chert gravels into the vicinity of the present day Little River Basin which lies along the eastern boundary of the National Forest. Current day drainages cross the National Forest from west to east, emptying into the Little River on the east side. However, a north-south oriented ridge of hills along the west side of the Forest appears to be a recent uplift associated with the hinge line of the Mississippi River depositional basin further to the east, and 800,000 years ago, when these gravels were first deposited during the Williana interglacial period, the streams probably flowed east to west, from the Little River basin to the Red River basin on the west side of the Forest. Within the National Forest and north of Alexandria, along Fish Creek, and east and west of an area known as Breezy Hill, exist several small, worked out gravel pits on privately owned blocks of land, formerly used by the state and county road departments. The pattern presented by these pits gives the impression of a series of north-south drainages lacing through the Forest, probable tributaries to Fish Creek which flows south of east from the west side of the Forest to empty into the Little River. Because of this predominant north-south pattern, no consideration was given to areas between these drainages during early gravel exploration efforts.

Scholen, Douglas E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Comparing morphologies of drainage basins on Mars and Earth using integral-geometry and neural maps

We compare morphologies of drainage basins on Mars and Earth in order to confine the formation process of Martian valley networks. Basins on both planets are computationally extracted from digital topography. Integral-geometry methods are used to represent each basin by a circularity function that encapsulates its internal structure. The shape of such a function is an indicator of the style of fluvial erosion. We use the self-organizing map technique to construct a similarity graph for all basins. The graph reveals systematic differences between morphologies of basins on the two planets. This dichotomy indicates that terrestrial and Martian surfaces were eroded differently. We argue that morphologies of Martian basins are incompatible with runoff from sustained, homogeneous rainfall. Fluvial environments compatible with observed morphologies are discussed. We also construct a similarity graph based on the comparison of basins hypsometric curves to demonstrate that hypsometry is incapable of discriminating between terrestrial and Martian basins. INDEX TERMS: 1824 Hydrology: Geomorphology (1625); 1886 Hydrology: Weathering (1625); 5415 Planetology: Solid Surface Planets: Erosion and weathering; 6225 Planetology: Solar System Objects Mars. Citation: Stepinski, T. F., and S. Coradetti (2004), Comparing morphologies of drainage basins on Mars and Earth using integral-ge

Stepinski, T. F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

Adler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1992

The impact of global warming on river runoff

A global atmospheric model is used to calculate the annual river runoff for 33 of the world's major rivers for the present climate and for a doubled CO2 climate. The model has a horizontal resolution of 4 x 5 deg, but the runoff from each model grid box is quartered and added to the appropriate river drainage basin on a 2 x 2.5 deg resolution. The computed runoff depends on the model's precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture storage. For the doubled CO2 climate, the runoff increased for 25 of the 33 rivers, and in most cases the increases coincide with increased rainfall within the drainage basins. There were runoff increases in all rivers in high northern latitudes, with a maximum increase of 47 percent. At low latitudes there were both increases and decreases ranging from a 96 increase to a 43 percent decrease. The effect of the simplified model assumptions of land-atmosphere interactions on the results is discussed.

Miller, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Regional Impacts of Urbanization in the United States

We simulate the impact of impervious surface areas (ISA) on the U.S. local and regional climate. At a local scale, we find the urban area warmer than the surrounding vegetation in most cities, except in arid climate cities where urban temperature is cooler for much of the daytime. For all 9 regions studied, simulated results show that the growing season maximum surface temperature difference between urban and the dominant vegetation occurs around mid-day and is strongest in the northern regions. Regional temperature differences of 3.0 C, 3.4 C, and 3.9 C were simulated in the Northeast, Midwest, and Northwest, respectively. In these regions evaporative cooling, during the growing season, creates a stronger urban heat island (UHI). The UHI is less pronounced during winter when vegetation is dormant. Our results suggest that the ISA temperature is set by building material's characteristics and its departure from that of the surrounding vegetation is essentially driven by evaporative cooling. Except when rainfall is small, the highest surface runoff to precipitation ratios are simulated in most cities, especially when precipitation events occur as heavy downpours. In terms of photosynthesis, we provide a detailed distribution of maximum production in the U.S., a needed product for policy and urban planners.

Bounoua, Lahouari↗
NASA NTRS2013

Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.

runoff↗
NASA NTRS1982

Hydrology team

General problems faced by hydrologists when using historical records, real time data, statistical analysis, and system simulation in providing quantitative information on the temporal and spatial distribution of water are related to the limitations of these data. Major problem areas requiring multispectral imaging-based research to improve hydrology models involve: evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture dynamics for large areas; the three dimensional characteristics of bodies of water; flooding in wetlands; snow water equivalents; runoff and sediment yield from ungaged watersheds; storm rainfall; fluorescence and polarization of water and its contained substances; discriminating between sediment and chlorophyll in water; role of barrier island dynamics in coastal zone processes; the relationship between remotely measured surface roughness and hydraulic roughness of land surfaces and stream networks; and modeling the runoff process.

Ragan, R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A plan for accurate estimation of daily area-mean rainfall during the CaPE experiment

The Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment took place in east central Florida from 8 July to 18 August, 1991. There were five research themes associated with CaPE. In broad terms they are: investigation of the evolution of the electric field in convective clouds, determination of meteorological and electrical conditions associated with lightning, development of mesoscale numerical forecasts (2-12 hr) and nowcasts (less than 2 hr) of convective initiation and remote estimation of rainfall. It is the last theme coupled with numerous raingage and streamgage measurements, satellite and aircraft remote sensing, radiosondes and other meteorological measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer that provide the basis for determining the hydrologic cycle for the CaPE experiment area. The largest component of the hydrologic cycle in this region is rainfall. An accurate determination of daily area-mean rainfall is important in correctly modeling its apportionment into runoff, infiltration and evapotranspiration. In order to achieve this goal a research plan was devised and initial analysis begun. The overall research plan is discussed with special emphasis placed on the adjustment of radar rainfall estimates to raingage rainfall.

Duchon, Claude E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Snow cover, snowmelt and runoff in the Himalayan River basins

Not withstanding the seasonal vagaries of both rainfall amount and snowcover extent, the Himalayan rivers retain their basic perennial character. However, it is the component of snowmelt yield that accounts for some 60 to 70 percent of the total annual flow volumes from Hamilayan watersheds. On this large hydropotential predominantly depends the temporal performance of hydropower generation and major irrigation projects. The large scale effects of Himalayan snowcover on the hydrologic responses of a few selected catchments in western Himalayas was studied. The antecedent effects of snowcover area on long and short term meltwater yields can best be analyzed by developing appropriate hydrologic models forecasting the pattern of snowmelt as a function of variations in snowcover area. It is hoped that these models would be of practical value in the management of water resources. The predictability of meltwater for the entire snowmelt season was studied, as was the concurrent flow variation in adjacent watersheds, and their hydrologic significance. And the applicability of the Snowmelt-Runoff Model for real time forecast of daily discharges during the major part of the snowmelt season is examined.

Dey, B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Statistical analysis of mesoscale rainfall: Dependence of a random cascade generator on large-scale forcing

Under the theory of independent and identically distributed random cascades, the probability distribution of the cascade generator determines the spatial and the ensemble properties of spatial rainfall. Three sets of radar-derived rainfall data in space and time are analyzed to estimate the probability distribution of the generator. A detailed comparison between instantaneous scans of spatial rainfall and simulated cascades using the scaling properties of the marginal moments is carried out. This comparison highlights important similarities and differences between the data and the random cascade theory. Differences are quantified and measured for the three datasets. Evidence is presented to show that the scaling properties of the rainfall can be captured to the first order by a random cascade with a single parameter. The dependence of this parameter on forcing by the large-scale meteorological conditions, as measured by the large-scale spatial average rain rate, is investigated for these three datasets. The data show that this dependence can be captured by a one-to-one function. Since the large-scale average rain rate can be diagnosed from the large-scale dynamics, this relationship demonstrates an important linkage between the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and the statistical cascade theory of mesoscale rainfall. Potential application of this research to parameterization of runoff from the land surface and regional flood frequency analysis is briefly discussed, and open problems for further research are presented.

Over, Thomas, M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Delineation of vulnerable areas to water erosion in a mountain region using SDR-InVEST model: A case study of the Ourika watershed, Morocco

The Ourika watershed is characterized by higher than average flood flows, a rugged topography, a sparse vegetation cover and a friable substrate that makes it vulnerable to soil erosion. Soil is an important non-renewable asset capital, providing several ecosystem services that sustain life through physical and biological regulation processes. The loss, or otherwise, redistribution of biota by soil erosion in the Ourika watershed has received little attention and thus constitutes a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed. This study quantifies the level of erosion and maps its spatial distribution in the watershed using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST3.6.0). The SDR maps the overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream at the watershed level using rainfall, soil properties, topography, cover management and cropping practices as predefined set of input variables. Recommended internal model calibration was used and results were compared to similar studies carried out in different parts of Morocco for validation. The results reveal that 93% of the watershed is subject to a strong rainfall aggressiveness greater than 50 MJ mm ha–1 h–1 yr1 under an average rainfall intensity of 541 mm/year, rainfall capacity to initiate the detachment and transport of soil particles by runoff, and only 11.5% of the watershed area is protected with vegetative cover. We find that overall, the Ourika watershed is losing its soil to erosion at an alarming average rate of 258.48 ton.ha–1.yr–1, a rate well above the tolerable threshold of 7ton.ha–1.yr–1. The spatial distribution of this loss shows areas that need to be urgently remedied. The primary factors for soil erosion in the Ourika watershed appear to be related to the aggressive nature of local rainfall and the inherent susceptibility of soils, which can be costly to this cash-crop region. Because rainfall intensity, soil properties, and topography are intrinsic characteristics of the watershed, we suggest that seasonally adapted cropping rotations that maintains conservative practices with a high cover management may reduce soil erosion in the Ourika watershed.

Erosion↗
NASA NTRS1998

A System Concept for the Advanced Post-TRMM Rainfall Profiling Radars

Atmospheric latent heating field is fundamental to all modes of atmospheric circulation and upper mixed layer circulations of the ocean. The key to understanding the atmospheric heating process is understanding how and where precipitation occurs. The principal atmospheric processes which link precipitation to atmospheric circulation include: (1) convective mass fluxes in the form of updrafts and downdrafts; (2) microphysical. nucleation and growth of hydrometeors; and (3) latent heating through dynamical controls on the gravitation-driven vertical mass flux of precipitation. It is well-known that surface and near-surface rainfall are two of the key forcing functions on a number of geophysical parameters at the surface-air interface. Over ocean, rainfall variation contributes to the redistribution of water salinity, sea surface temperature, fresh water supply, and marine biology and eco-system. Over land, rainfall plays a significant role in rainforest ecology and chemistry, land hydrology and surface runoff. Precipitation has also been closely linked to a number of atmospheric anomalies and natural hazards that occur at various time scales, including hurricanes, cyclones, tropical depressions, flash floods, droughts, and most noticeable of all, the El Ninos. From this point of view, the significance of global atmospheric precipitation has gone far beyond the science arena - it has a far-reaching impact on human's socio-economic well-being and sustenance. These and many other science applications require the knowledge of, in a global basis, the vertical rain structures, including vertical motion, rain intensity, differentiation of the precipitating hydrometeors' phase state, and the classification of mesoscale physical structure of the rain systems. The only direct means to obtain such information is the use of a spaceborne profiling radar. It is important to mention that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) have made a great stride forward towards this ultimate goal. The Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the TRMM satellite is the first ever spaceborne radar dedicated to three-dimensional, global precipitation measurements over the tropics and the subtropics, as well as the detailed synopsis of a wide range of tropical rain storm systems. In only twelve months since launch, the PR, together with other science instruments abroad the satellite have already provided unprecedented insights into the rainfall systems. It is anticipated the a lot more exciting and important rain observations would be made by TRMM throughout its mission duration. While TRMM has provided invaluable data to the user community, it is only the first step towards advancing our knowledge on rain processes and its contributions to climate variability. It is envisioned that a TRMM follow-on mission is needed in such a way to capitalize on the pioneering information provided by TRMM, and its instrument capability must be extended beyond TRMM in such a way to fully address the key science questions from microphysical to climatic time scale. In fact, a number of new and innovative mission concepts have recently put forth for this purpose. Almost all of these new concepts have suggested the utility of a more advanced, high-resolution, Doppler-enabled, vertical profiling radar that can provide multi-parameter observations of precipitation. In this paper, a system concept for a second- gene ration precipitation radar (PR-2) which addresses the above requirements will be described.

Im, Eastwood↗
NASA NTRS1994

A season of heat, water vapor, total hydrocarbon, and ozone fluxes at a subarctic fen

High-latitude environments are thought to play several critical roles in the global balance of radiatively active trace gases. Adequate documentation of the source and sink strengths for trace gases requires long time series of detailed measurements, including heat and moisture budgets. A fen near Schefferville, Quebec, was instrumented during the summer of 1990 for the measurement of the surface energy, radiation, and moisture balances as well as for eddy correlation estimates of ozone and methane flux. Despite the limited fetch at this site, analysis of the tower flux 'footprint' indicates that at least 80% of the flux observed originates from sources within the fen. Sensible heat fluxes averaged 25% of the daytime net radiation at the site, while the latent heat flux, determined from the energy balance, was 63%; the Bowen ratio varied from 0.2 to 0.8 from day to day, without a seasonal trend to the variation. The competing effects of rooted macrophyte development (with concomitant effects on roughness and transpiration) and the normal shift in synoptic pattern around day 200 to warm, dry conditions results in a lack of net seasonal effect on the energy partitioning. Over the period from days 170 to 230, the evaporation (167 mm) was double the rainfall, while the decline in water level was 107 mm, leaving a net runoff of 0.44 mm/d. The total hydrocarbon flux was 75-120 mg m(exp -2)/d, following a diurnal pattern similar to heat or moisture flux, while the daytime ozone flux was about -1.11 x 10(exp 11) molecules cm(exp -2)/s. A period near the end of the experiment, during week 30, produced the strongest total hydrocarbon flux, associated with warmer deep (1 m) soil temperatures, lower fen water levels, and the late summer shift in wind direction at that time. An early summer 'flush' of total hydrocarbon was not observed.

Moore, Kathleen E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Changes in the Extent of Surface Mining and Reclamation in the Central Appalachians Detected Using a 1976-2006 Landsat Time Series

Surface mining and reclamation is the dominant driver of land cover land use change (LCLUC) in the Central Appalachian Mountain region of the Eastern U.S. Accurate quantification of the extent of mining activities is important for assessing how this LCLUC affects ecosystem services such as aesthetics, biodiversity, and mitigation of flooding.We used Landsat imagery from 1976, 1987, 1999 and 2006 to map the extent of surface mines and mine reclamation for eight large watersheds in the Central Appalachian region of West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. We employed standard image processing techniques in conjunction with a temporal decision tree and GIS maps of mine permits and wetlands to map active and reclaimed mines and track changes through time. For the entire study area, active surface mine extent was highest in 1976, prior to implementation of the Surface Mine Control and Reclamation Act in 1977, with 1.76% of the study area in active mines, declining to 0.44% in 2006. The most extensively mined watershed, Georges Creek in Maryland, was 5.45% active mines in 1976, declining to 1.83% in 2006. For the entire study area, the area of reclaimed mines increased from 1.35% to 4.99% from 1976 to 2006, and from 4.71% to 15.42% in Georges Creek. Land cover conversion to mines and then reclaimed mines after 1976 was almost exclusively from forest. Accuracy levels for mined and reclaimed cover was above 85% for all time periods, and was generally above 80% for mapping active and reclaimed mines separately, especially for the later time periods in which good accuracy assessment data were available. Among other implications, the mapped patterns of LCLUC are likely to significantly affect watershed hydrology, as mined and reclaimed areas have lower infiltration capacity and thus more rapid runoff than unmined forest watersheds, leading to greater potential for extreme flooding during heavy rainfall events.

Townsend, Philip A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Contrasting conditions of surface water balance in wet years and dry years as a possible land surface-atmosphere feedback mechanism in the West African Sahel

The climate of West Africa, in particular the Sahel, is characterized by multiyear persistence of anomalously wet or dry conditions. Its Southern Hemisphere counterpart, the Kalahari, lacks the persistence that is evident in the Sahel even though both regions are subject to similar large-scale forcing. It has been suggested that land surface-atmosphere feedback contributes to this persistence and to the severity of drought. In this study, surface energy and water balance are quantified for nine stations along a latitudinal transect that extends from the Sahara to the Guinea coast. In the wetter regions of West Africa, the difference between wet and dry years is primarily reflected in the magnitude of runoff. For the Sahel and drier locations, evapotranspiration and soil moisture are more sensitive to rainfall anomalies. The increase in evapotranspiration, and hence latent heating, over the Sahel in wet years alters the thermal structure and gradients of the overlying atmosphere and thus the strength of the African easterly jet (AEJ) at 700 mb. The difference between dry and wet Augusts corresponds to a decrease in magnitude of the AEJ at 15 deg N on the order of 2.6 m/s, which is consistent with previous studies of observed winds. Spatial patterns were also developed for surface water balance parameters for both West Africa and southern Africa. Over southern Africa, the patterns are not as spatially homogeneous as those over West Africa and are lower in magnitude, thus supporting the suggestion that the persistence of rainfall anomalies in the Sahel might be due, at least in part, to land-atmosphere feedback, and that the absence of such persistence in the Kalahari is a consequence of less significant changes in surface water and energy balance.

Lare, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the incorporation of basin and rainfall storm scale also greatly influences the distributional shape of the flood frequency curve.

Sivapalan, Murugesu↗