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At least 55 records · Page 3

Validation and Calibration of Energy Models with Real Vehicle Data from Chassis Dynamometer Experiments

Accurate estimation of vehicle fuel consumption typically requires detailed modeling of complex internal powertrain dynamics, often resulting in computationally intensive simulations. However, many transportation applications-such as traffic flow modeling, optimization, and control-require simplified models that are fast, interpretable, and easy to implement, while still maintaining fidelity to physical energy behavior. This work builds upon a recently developed model reduction pipeline that derives physics-like energy models from high-fidelity Autonomie vehicle simulations. These reduced models preserve essential vehicle dynamics, enabling realistic fuel consumption estimation with minimal computational overhead. While the reduced models have demonstrated strong agreement with their Autonomie counterparts, previous validation efforts have been confined to simulation environments. This study extends the validation by comparing the reduced energy model's outputs against real-world vehicle data. Focusing on the MidSUV category, we tune the baseline Autonomie model to closely replicate the characteristics of a Toyota RAV4. We then assess the accuracy of the resulting reduced model in estimating fuel consumption under actual drive conditions. Our findings suggest that, when the reference Autonomie model is properly calibrated, the simplified model produced by the reduction pipeline can provide reliable, semi-principled fuel rate estimates suitable for large-scale transportation applications.

42 ENGINEERING

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

The Method of Finite Averages

The Method of Finite Averages (MoFA) is a rigorous multiscale modeling methodology for efficiently modeling multi-physical phenomena in heterogeneous porous media. The code developed in this project aims to perform the numerical calculations required to formulate, implement, and verify MoFA models for Earth and Energy systems (i.e., model verification refers to performing fully-resolved simulations of the systems and comparing their results to those of the models). In general, MoFA transforms partial differential equations (PDEs) describing the fine-scale physics of a system into coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs)---in time---that describe the coarse-scale---or "average"---physical behaviors of the system. This transformation significantly expedites system simulation, as the coarse-scale ODEs involve vastly fewer degrees of freedom than the fine-scale PDEs. The code developed under this project will allow users to 1.) generate system geometries and numerical meshes, 2.) solve the PDE and ODE systems required for MoFA model formulation and implementation, 3.) solve the PDE systems required to obtain fully-resolved simulation results for model verification, and 4.) compare and plot results (e.g., the model and fully-resolved simulation solutions, the error between the solutions, etc.).

Pietrzyk, KyleM [Lawrence Livermore National Labor

Implications of new Reasoning Capabilities for Science and Security: Results from a Quick Initial Study

On Thursday, September 12 OpenAI released “a new series of models designed to spend more time thinking… they can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math.” These models are referred to as o1-preview and o1-mini and appear to be first results of what had been a closely held project called Strawberry within OpenAI. The models are not described as successors in the earlier GPT series because they provide a qualitatively different type of capability, especially step-by-step reasoning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Utah FORGE: 2024 Discrete Fracture Network Model Data

The Utah FORGE 2024 Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model dataset provides a set of files representing discrete fracture network modeling for the FORGE site near Milford, Utah. The dataset includes four distinct DFN model file sets, each corresponding to different time frames and modeling approaches in 2024. These models characterize both natural and induced fractures in the geothermal reservoir, which consists of crystalline granitic and metamorphic rock approximately 8,000 feet below the ground surface. The dataset includes a reference DFN model from February 2024 that incorporates planar fractures and well trajectories, as well as upscaled permeability, porosity, compressibility, and storage values on specified grids. Additionally, there are models based on new microseismic (MEQ) data from May and July 2024, including fracture planes fitted to the latest MEQ catalog datasets, tensile fractures from hydraulic stimulation, and an alternative connected DFN for modeling purposes. Coordinate data is provided in both global and local frames, with detailed instructions on the transformations used to align with principal stress orientations. The dataset also includes notes and calculation files for estimating fracture sizes and differences between various fracture sets. There are subfolders for Global Coordinates and Local Coordinates. To move from the global to the local coordinate frame, fractures and wells were a) rotated 20 degrees counterclockwise looking down about the global point (335376.400482041, 4263189.99998761, 250.093546450195) to better align with the principal stresses; and b) translated by (-335408.68, -4263010.9, 1150). Upscaled permeability values using the _XYZ suffix show directions with respect to the global XYZ coordinate frame, while those using the _IJK suffix are aligned with local coordinate frame.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Sound Velocity of Hematite up to 13 GPa

We performed acoustic measurements on polycrystalline hematite using ultrasonic interferometric techniques in a Kawai-type multi-anvil apparatus. The elastic moduli and their pressure derivatives were determined by fitting the experimental data to third-order finite strain equations, yielding: 𝐾 𝑆,0 = 214.8 (20) GPa, 𝐺 0 = 92.0 (2) GPa, 𝐾$^{′}_{S,0}$ = 5.70 (1), and 𝐺$^{′}_{0}$ = 0.88 (4). Modeling of the velocity profiles of hematite along hot and cold slab geotherms shows that compressional (V P ) and shear (V S ) wave velocities are 22%–24% and 53%–55% lower, respectively, compared to the Preliminary Reference Earth Model at the top of the lower mantle. Furthermore, these findings likely offer a potential explanation for the low-velocity anomalies associated with slab graveyards at the base of the lower mantle.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

UNIFI's Grid-Forming (GFM) Inverter Reference Design: A Tutorial on Modeling, Control, and Experimental Implementation of GFM Inverters

The UNIFI Consortium's tutorial on grid-forming (GFM) inverters provides a comprehensive guide to the modeling, control, and experimental implementation of GFM inverters. As the integration of renewable energy accelerates, the transition from traditional grid following (GFL) to GFM inverters is crucial to ensure stable and sustainable power systems. This document outlines a reference design for three-phase and single-phase GFM inverters developed at the University of Texas at Austin. The tutorial also provides step-by-step guidance for accessing and using UNIFI’s GitHub repository, enabling users to design, build, and test GFM inverters efficiently. By fostering collaboration and equipping users with accessible resources, this initiative aims to drive widespread adoption of GFM technology across academia, utilities, and industries.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Transport and confinement physics: Chapter 2 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Progress in physics understanding and theoretical model development of plasma transport and confinement (TC) in the ITPA TC Topical Group since the publication of the ITER Physics Basis (IPB) document (Doyle et al 2007 Nucl. Fusion 47 S18) was summarized focusing on the contributions to ITER and burning plasma prediction and control. This paper provides a general and streamlined overview on the advances that were mainly led by the ITPA TC joint experiments and joint activities for the last 15 years (see JEX/JA table in appendix). This paper starts with the scientific strategy and scope of the ITPA TC Topical group and overall picture of the major progress, followed by the progress of each research field: particle transport, impurity transport, ion and electron thermal turbulent transport, momentum transport, impact of 3D magnetic fields on transport, confinement mode transitions, global confinement, and reduced transport modeling. Cross references with other Topical Groups are given in order to highlight overlapped topics, such as the 3D effect on the plasma transport in the edge and L-H transition physics. The increasing overlap between the topical groups is a reflection of the progress on integrating the known physics into comprehensive models that are better and better able to reproduce the plasma transport. In recent years, such integration has become increasingly prevalent when considering transport from the SOL, through the edge pedestal, and into the plasma core. In the near future, increased collaboration also with the magneto-hydrodynamic and energetic particles community will be important as we approach burning plasma conditions in next-step fusion devices. A summary of remaining challenges and next steps for each research field is given in the Summary section.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd

Review and Modeling of Integrated Energy Systems with Nuclear Reactor Coupled Desalination and District Heating

Detailed reviews of a past advanced nuclear reactor based integrated energy system, as well as other nuclear reactor and fossil fuel based integrated energy systems have been performed for this work. Review of the utilization of heat from nuclear reactors for various applications and cogeneration has been done. The heat can be utilized by extraction of the steam from the turbine while the steam is still at a desired temperature. While use of nuclear process heat for district heating in countries like Finland, France, China, Poland, and elsewhere is discussed, more focus of the review has been given on nuclear desalination processes. Integrated energy systems (IES) where distinct types of reactors like PWR, BWR, sodium cooled fast reactor, heavy water reactor and other advanced reactors are coupled with various nuclear desalination processes like multi-effect distillation (MED), multi-stage flashing (MSF) and reverse osmosis (RO) methods have been discussed. The nuclear desalination plant at Aktau has been discussed in more detail due to its decades of successful operation. The IES of the Aktau plant coupled with 5-effect MED desalination plant has been taken as a reference for modeling the Open Modelica (OM) based IES of this work. Here, the OM IES model shows good agreement with the MED plant output of Aktau and can be extended for future applications of IES.

42 ENGINEERING

Analyzing LF/VLF Lightning Waveforms to Estimate D-region Electron Density Profiles

Lightning waveforms in the low frequency (LF; 30-300 kHz) and the very low frequency (VLF; 3-30 kHz) bands can be exploited to produce data-driven ionospheric D-region electron density profile (EDP) estimates with significantly higher spatial and temporal coverage than previously available. The lightning waveforms used in this paper are signals detected in the LF/VLF of negative cloud-to-ground lightning by the Earth Networks Total Lightning Detection Network. Each waveform contains a ground wave and a time-delayed ionospheric reflection. The time delay between the ground wave and ionospheric reflection has previously been used to estimate a single specular reflection altitude, where LF/VLF emissions are reflected by the ionosphere. Here, we expand upon previous methods to include filtering and spectral analysis, and account for oblique propagation to produce higher-order estimates for reflection altitudes and corresponding electron densities. Once estimated, reflection altitudes and corresponding electron densities can be used to derive parameters β and h’, which define an EDP for the D-region. In this study, the lightning waveform (LW) analysis is demonstrated using a single representative 24-hour dataset over the Southeast United States, and then extended to a total of 10 separate datasets with varying locations and ionospheric conditions. The LW-derived D-region EDPs are in agreement with predictions made by the Faraday International Reference Ionosphere model, and the LW EDPs β and h’ values are consistent with previous LF/VLF-derived estimates.

D-region ionosphere

Active-wake mixing in atmospheric boundary layers with one-turbine arrays

This dataset includes results of high fidelity simulations of a single, offshore wind turbine under a variety of atmospheric conditions. Of primary interest is the turbine performance and wake characteristics when different turbine control strategies are applied, including when wake steering or active wake control are used. The simulations were performed with the LES code AMR-Wind (https://github.com/Exawind/amr-wind/), coupled with OpenFAST (https://github.com/OpenFAST/openfast) and the ROSCO open-source turbine controller (https://github.com/NREL/ROSCO). The turbine used in the simulations is the IEA 15MW reference turbine model.

17 WIND ENERGY

Impact of the Earth’s Density Profile on Atmospheric Neutrino Oscillations

As atmospheric neutrinos traverse the Earth, the matter potential influences their oscillation probabilities in intricate ways, enhancing and suppressing the conversion of one neutrino’s flavor to another along the propagation. Comprehending their behavior within Earth’s complex density profile, primarily described by the Preliminary Reference Earth Model (PREM) [1], is essential for accurately describing oscillations and determining expected atmospheric neutrino event rates in the DUNE Far Detector. In this study, we address this challenge by considering an ensemble of Earth models constrained by astronomical measurements of the planet’s mass and moment of inertia. We evaluate how variations in densities and layer boundaries can affect oscillation probabilities and event rates, and what implications this could have on various physics analyses.

Ismerio Oliveira, Marcelo [Rio de Janeiro, Pont. U

Updated uranium reference material 231 Pa/ 235 U consensus model ages for nuclear forensics

Radiochronometry provides the model age of nuclear materials, which is useful for understanding the production history of materials found outside of regulatory control. Certified reference materials (CRMs) are important for radiochronometry to increase confidence in measurement quality; however, the absence of 231 Pa/ 235 U CRMs necessitates that nuclear forensic laboratories measure the 231 Pa/ 235 U model ages of preexisting uranium reference materials. Here, in this work, new consensus 231 Pa/ 235 U model ages are reported from three nuclear forensic laboratories for three reference materials using current analytical methods. These updated consensus values can be used for quality control of 231 Pa/ 235 U model age measurements.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Modeling, Validation, and Control of the IEA‐15 MW Reference Wind Turbine and VolturnUS‐S Platform

This paper presents the acausal modeling, validation, and control of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). The model simulates the IEA‐15 MW reference turbine and the semi‐submersible VolturnUS‐S platform utilizing a Control‐oriented, Reconfigurable, and Acausal Floating Turbine Simulator (CRAFTS), which integrates the key coupled aero‐hydro‐elasto‐servo dynamics and is being developed by authors at the University of Central Florida. Verification and validation are conducted using numerical data from the industry‐standard simulation platform OpenFAST and experimental data from the Floating Offshore‐wind and Controls Advanced Laboratory (FOCAL) project, in which the authors were involved. Numerical results demonstrate the model's ability to qualitatively capture loads and responses across various load cases, highlighting the impact of the control system under different wind and wave conditions and opening new opportunities for optimizing FOWT designs. This paper provides wind turbine researchers with valuable insights into system characteristics, system frequencies, damping effects, and internal reaction forces, serving as a reference for future studies in FOWT modeling and control.

17 WIND ENERGY

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

FOCAL Campaign I: Advanced Wind Turbine Control Strategies

Campaign I of the Floating Offshore-wind Controls Advanced Laboratory Experimental Program (FOCAL) aims to generate a dataset enabling the validation of aerodynamic performance of a scaled turbine mounted on a rigid tower in a fixed condition. The turbine considered in the FOCAL testing campaigns is the IEA-Wind 15MW Reference Wind Turbine. This scaled model is capable of simulating advanced blade-pitch control strategies in a high-quality wind field. The turbine is fully instrumented to record a variety of parameters in real time such as structural loads and dynamics. The test data considered was generated at the University of Maine's Harold Alfond Wind and Wave (W2) testing facility. The Load Cases (LC) considered in this testing campaign are as follows: LC 1.X - Constant wind and blade-pitch with varying rotor speeds LC 2.X - Constant wind and rotor speed with varying blade-pitch LC 3.X - Varying wind with active closed-loop control Detailed properties on the modeled system are found in the following reference: Lenfest E., Floating Offshore-wind Controls Advanced Laboratory (FOCAL) Experimental Program - Campaign I: 1:70 Model-scale Testing of the IEA-Wind 15MW Reference Turbine. UMaine ASCC Report Number 23-40-1183. Details on the results of the verification and validation are found in the following reference: Mendoza, Nicole et al., "Verification and Validation of Model-Scale Turbine Performance and Control for the IEA Wind 15 MW Reference Wind Turbine," Energies, vol. 15, no. 20, 2022, https://doi.org/10.3390/en15207649.

17 WIND ENERGY