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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗
NASA NTRS2016

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis of Backwater Habitat Availability Using Remote Sensing

Low-velocity channel-margin habitats serve as important nursery habitats for the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in the middle Green River between Jensen and Ouray, Utah. These habitats, known as backwaters, are associated with emergent sandbars, and are shaped and reformed annually by peak flows. Our recent knowledge about backwater characteristics and dynamics that is summarized in the synthesis report (Grippo et al. 2015) was based on detailed annual survey data from a relatively small sample of backwaters that were collected from 2003 to 2014 and reach-wide evaluations of backwater surface area based on manual interpretation of aerial and satellite imagery. Methods that bridge the gap between the detailed surveys from a small number of backwaters and the reach-wide assessment of their surface area would enable an assessment of the availability of backwater habitats that meet the minimum depth requirements for suitable habitat for Colorado pikeminnow. In 2015 Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) tested three regression models—linear, multiple, and partial least square (PLS) regression models—for estimating backwater depth using National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery collected in July 2006 that covered the Jensen-Ouray reach of the Green River (Hamada and LaGory 2016). The results suggested that a PLS regression model showed high correlation with the reference depth (R 2 = 0.69) and had the most unbiased and consistent estimate of backwater depth. The results also indicated that the PLS model would provide reasonable estimates of the amount of habitat providing a minimum suitable depth of 30 cm for young-of-the-year Colorado pikeminnow, even though absolute depth estimates may be uncertain for backwater areas deeper than approximately 40 cm. The study also provided insights regarding the amount and the selection of calibration and validation (cal-val) data needed for improving the accuracy of depth prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Critical considerations for wind-tunnel testing V/STOL aircraft models

Low-speed wind-tunnel testing of V/STOL aircraft concepts to determine the aerodynamic-propulsion interaction effects during the transition between hover and wingborne flight is a necessary step in the development cycle of this type of aircraft. The paper examines factors which must be dealt with to assure that the information obtained in experiments is accurate and representative of the full-scale aircraft modeled. Areas of discussion include: (1) Proper engine simulation selection and model size constraints as a result of the selection; (2) selection of reference power-off condition for determining propulsion interaction effects; (3) modeling of realistic flight conditions to obtain a comprehensive evaluation of the entire transition performance; and (4) wind-tunnel boundary interferences and how these are highly configuration dependent.

Margason, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Radiative flux and forcing parameterization error in aerosol-free clear skies

This article reports on the accuracy in aerosol- and cloud-free conditions of the radiation parameterizations used in climate models. Accuracy is assessed relative to observationally validated reference models for fluxes under present-day conditions and forcing (flux changes) from quadrupled concentrations of carbon dioxide. Agreement among reference models is typically within 1 W/m 2 , while parameterized calculations are roughly half as accurate in the longwave and even less accurate, and more variable, in the shortwave. Absorption of shortwave radiation is underestimated by most parameterizations in the present day and has relatively large errors in forcing. Error in present-day conditions is essentially unrelated to error in forcing calculations. Recent revisions to parameterizations have reduced error in most cases. As a result, a dependence on atmospheric conditions, including integrated water vapor, means that global estimates of parameterization error relevant for the radiative forcing of climate change will require much more ambitious calculations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Candidate sample acquisition systems for the Rosetta

The Comet Nucleus Sample Return (CNSR) mission, one of the four cornerstones of the ESA scientific program, is one of the most complex space ventures within the next century, both from technological and deep space exploration point of view. In the Rosetta scenario the sample acquisition phase represents the most critical point for the global mission's success. The proposed paper illustrates the main results obtained in the context of the CNSR-SAS ongoing activity. The main areas covered are related to: (1) sample properties characterization (comet soil model, physical/chemical properties, reference material for testing); (2) concepts identification for coring, shovelling, harpooning and anchoring; (3) preferred concept (trade off among concepts, identification of the preferred configuration); and (4) proposed development activity for gaining the necessary confidence before finalizing the CNSR mission. Particular emphasis will be given to the robotic and flexibility aspects of the identified sample acquisition systems (SAS) configuration, intended as a means for the overall system performance enhancement.

Magnani, P. G.↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Pilot Evaluation of a 4-Dimensional Cone-Beam Computed Tomographic Scheme Based on Simultaneous Motion Estimation and Image Reconstruction

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of a 4-dimensional (4-D) cone-beam computed tomographic (CBCT) reconstruction scheme based on simultaneous motion estimation and image reconstruction (SMEIR) through patient studies. Methods and Materials: The SMEIR algorithm contains 2 alternating steps: (1) motion-compensated CBCT reconstruction using projections from all phases to reconstruct a reference phase 4D-CBCT by explicitly considering the motion models between each different phase and (2) estimation of motion models directly from projections by matching the measured projections to the forward projection of the deformed reference phase 4D-CBCT. Four lung cancer patients were scanned for 4 to 6 minutes to obtain approximately 2000 projections for each patient. To evaluate the performance of the SMEIR algorithm on a conventional 1-minute CBCT scan, the number of projections at each phase was reduced by a factor of 5, 8, or 10 for each patient. Then, 4D-CBCTs were reconstructed from the down-sampled projections using Feldkamp-Davis-Kress, total variation (TV) minimization, prior image constrained compressive sensing (PICCS), and SMEIR. Using the 4D-CBCT reconstructed from the fully sampled projections as a reference, the relative error (RE) of reconstructed images, root mean square error (RMSE), and maximum error (MaxE) of estimated tumor positions were analyzed to quantify the performance of the SMEIR algorithm. Results: The SMEIR algorithm can achieve results consistent with the reference 4D-CBCT reconstructed with many more projections per phase. With an average of 30 to 40 projections per phase, the MaxE in tumor position detection is less than 1 mm in SMEIR for all 4 patients. Conclusion: The results from a limited number of patients show that SMEIR is a promising tool for high-quality 4D-CBCT reconstruction and tumor motion modeling.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards replacement of animal tests with in vitro assays: a gene expression biomarker predicts in vitro and in vivo estrogen receptor activity

High-throughput transcriptomics (HTTr) has the potential to support efforts to reduce or replace some animal tests. In past studies, we described a computational approach utilizing a gene expression biomarker consisting of 46 genes to predict estrogen receptor (ER) activity after chemical exposure in ER-positive human breast cancer cells including the MCF-7 cell line. We hypothesized that the biomarker model could identify ER activities of chemicals examined by Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) Tier 1 screening assays in which transcript profiles of the same chemicals were examined in MCF-7 cells. For the 62 chemicals examined including 5 chemicals examined in this study using RNA-Seq, the ER biomarker model accuracy was 1) 97% for in vitro reference chemicals, 2) 76–85% for guideline uterotrophic assays, and 3) 87–88% for guideline and nonguideline uterotrophic assays. For the same chemicals, these accuracies were similar or slightly better than those of the ToxCast ER model based on 18 in vitro assays. The performance of the ER biomarker model indicates that HTTr interpreted using the ER biomarker correctly identifies active and inactive ER reference chemicals. Finally, as part of the HTTr screening program the approach could rapidly identify chemicals with potential ER bioactivities for additional screening and testing.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-93: Development of Pre-Contoured Human Model Library in DICOM-RT Format for the Epidemiological Study of the Radiotherapy Patients

Purpose: Prior to 3D conformal radiation therapy planning, patient anatomy information was mostly limited to 2D beams-eye-view from the conventional simulator. To analyze the outcomes of such treatments for radiation late effects, 3D computational human models are often used in commercial treatment planning systems (TPSs). However, several underlying difficulties such as time-consuming manual delineation procedures of a large number of structures in the model have always limited its applications. Primary objective of this work was to develop a human model library for the epidemiological study by converting 3D-surface model organs to DICOM-RT format (DICOM-RT structure) using an in-house built software. We converted the ICRP reference human models to DICOM-RT models, which can be readily adopted for various dose calculations. Methods: MATLAB based code were utilized to convert the contour drawings extracted in text-format from the 3D graphic-tool, Rhinoceros into DICOM-RT structure format for 50 different organs of each model using a 16GB dual-core processor. The conversion periods were measured for each DICOM-RT models, and the reconstructed structure volumes were validated against the original 3D-surface models in the TPS. Ten reference hybrid whole-body models (8-pediatric and 2-adults) were automatically processed to create DICOM-RT computational human model library. Results: Mean contour conversion period was found to be 580 (N=2) and 394.5 (N=8) seconds for 50 organs in the adult and pediatric models respectively. A good agreement for large organs (NRMSD <1.0%) and small organs (NRMSD <7.7%) was also observed between the original volumes and corresponding DICOM-RT structure volumes of the organs. Conclusion: The ICRP reference human models were converted into DICOM-RT format to support the epidemiological study using a large cohort of conventional radiotherapy patients. Due to its DICOM-compatibility, the library may be implemented to many other different applications. We also expect to develop the library by including additional models in future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Phase stability, mechanical properties, and ion irradiation effects in face-centered cubic CrFeMnNi compositionally complex solid-solution alloys at high temperatures

We report two CrFeMnNi face-centered cubic complex concentrated solid-solution alloys (CSA) have been evaluated for phase stability, mechanical properties, and radiation damage effects from heavy ions. Cr 18 Fe 27 Mn 27 Ni 28 and Cr 15 Fe 35 Mn 15 Ni 35 were predicted by thermodynamic calculations to phase separate and maintain a single phase at 700 °C, respectively. Aging experiments at this temperature confirmed varying degrees of precipitation of a body-centered cubic phase in both Cr 18 Fe 27 Mn 27 Ni 28 and Cr 15 Fe 35 Mn 15 Ni 35 . The alloys showed promising strength in tensile deformation at room temperature, with yield strengths of 155 MPa and 151 MPa for Cr 18 Fe 27 Mn 27 Ni 28 and Cr 15 Fe3 5 Mn 15 Ni 35 , respectively. At 500 °C, the yield strength of Cr 18 Fe 27 Mn 27 Ni 28 fell to 93 MPa, and to 100 MPa in Cr 15 Fe3 5 Mn 15 Ni 35 . Unlike Cr 18 Fe 27 Mn 27 Ni 28 , Cr 15 Fe 35 Mn 15 Ni 35 gained some ductility at 500 °C compared to room temperature. The two CSAs were irradiated to 75 dpa at 500 °C in the plateau region of the displacement curve using 3.7 MeV Ni 2+ ions, alongside model alloy 709 as a reference. Irradiation results produced similar densities and sizes of dislocations loops in the two CSAs compared to the reference. However, while large voids form in the plateau region of Cr 18 Fe 27 Mn 27 Ni 28 , small voids form just beyond the displacement peak of Cr 15 Fe 35 Mn 15 Ni 35 . Atom probe tomography and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy-equipped scanning transmission electron microscopes were used to characterize the alloys for changes in chemical distribution.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Advanced recovery systems wind tunnel test report

Pioneer Aerospace Corporation (PAC) conducted parafoil wind tunnel testing in the NASA-Ames 80 by 120 test sections of the National Full-Scale Aerodynamic Complex, Moffett Field, CA. The investigation was conducted to determine the aerodynamic characteristics of two scale ram air wings in support of air drop testing and full scale development of Advanced Recovery Systems for the Next Generation Space Transportation System. Two models were tested during this investigation. Both the primary test article, a 1/9 geometric scale model with wing area of 1200 square feet and secondary test article, a 1/36 geometric scale model with wing area of 300 square feet, had an aspect ratio of 3. The test results show that both models were statically stable about a model reference point at angles of attack from 2 to 10 degrees. The maximum lift-drag ratio varied between 2.9 and 2.4 for increasing wing loading.

Geiger, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantitative impact of changes in marrow cellularity, skeletal size, and bone mineral density on active marrow dosimetry based upon a reference model

Purpose The hematopoietically active tissues of skeletal bone marrow are a prime target for computational dosimetry given potential risks of leukemia and, at higher dose levels, acute marrow toxicity. The complex three‐dimensional geometry of trabecular spongiosa, however, complicates schema for dose assessment in such a way that only a few reference skeletal models have been developed to date, and which are based upon microimaging of a limited number of cadaveric bone spongiosa cores. The question then arises as to what degree of accuracy is achievable from reference skeletal dose models when applied to individual patients or specific exposed populations? Methods Patient variability in marrow dosimetry were quantified for three skeletal sites — the ribs, lumbar vertebrae, and cranium — for the beta‐emitters 45 Ca, 153 Sm, and 90 Y, and the alpha‐particle emitters 223 Ra, 219 Rn, and 215 Po, the latter two being the immediate progeny of the former. For each radionuclide and bone site, three patient parameters were altered from their values in the reference model: (1) bone size as a surrogate for patient stature, (2) marrow cellularity as a surrogate for age‐ or disease‐related changes in marrow adiposity, and (3) the trabecular bone volume fraction as a surrogate for bone mineral density. Marrow dose variability is expressed as percent differences in the radionuclide S value given by the reference model and the patient‐parameterized model. The impact of radionuclide biokinetics on marrow dosimetry was not considered. Results Variations in overall bone size play a very minor role in active marrow dose variability. Marrow cellularity is a significant factor in dose variability for active marrow self‐irradiation, but it plays no role for radionuclides localized to the trabecular bone matrix. Variations in trabecular bone volume fractions impact the active marrow dose variability for short‐range particle emitters 45 Ca, 223 Ra, 219 Rn, and 215 Po in the vertebrae and ribs, skeletal sites with small spongiosa proportions of trabecular bone. In the cranium, with its relative high proportion of trabecular bone, significant differences in marrow dosimetry from the reference model were noted for all radionuclides. Conclusions Skeletal models of active marrow dosimetry should be more fully parameterized to permit closer matching to patient bone density and marrow cellularity, particularly when considering short‐range particle emitters localized to either the bone trabeculae or active marrow, respectively.

Geyer, Amy M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) Upgrades

Introduction: The Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) is one of the most widely used engineering models of Venus’ atmosphere. The Venus-GRAM upgrades are being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). This presentation will provide details regarding the upgrades that have been made to Venus-GRAM and the ongoing objectives, tasks, and milestones related to the GRAM upgrades funded by the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD). Venus-GRAM: Venus-GRAM is an engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of the atmospheric properties of Venus. Venus-GRAM provides mean values and variability for any point in the atmosphere as well as seasonal, geographic, and altitude variations. Venus-GRAM outputs include atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, winds, and chemical composition along a user-defined path. It is extensively used by the engineering community because of its ability to create realistic dispersions. GRAMs have been integrated into high fidelity flight dynamic simulations of launch, entry, descent and landing (EDL), aerobraking and aerocapture. GRAMs are currently available for Earth, Mars, Venus, Neptune, Titan, and Uranus. The lower atmosphere model in Venus-GRAM (up to 250 km) is based on the Venus International Reference Atmosphere (VIRA) [1]. The Venus-GRAM thermosphere (250 to 1000 km) is based on a MSFC-developed model [2] which assumes an isothermal temperature profile initialized using VIRA conditions at 250 km [3]. The VIRA version included in Venus-GRAM includes Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Probe data as well as Venera probe data, but it does not include a solid planet model or a high-resolution gravity model [4]. Venus-GRAM Upgrade Status: Code Modernization. Venus-GRAM has been rearchitected from Fortran to a common object-oriented C++ framework called the GRAM Suite. This new architecture creates a common GRAM library of data models and utilities. The first C++ release of the rearchitected Venus-GRAM is a straight conversion from the latest Fortran version. Model Upgrades. The focus of the model upgrade task is to improve the atmosphere models in the existing GRAMs and to establish a foundation for developing GRAMs for additional destinations. The GRAM ephemeris has been upgraded to the NASA Navigation and Ancillary Information Facility (NAIF) SPICE toolkit (version N0066). The calculation of the speed of sound has also been improved in the GRAMs. In FY20, the GRAM project established contracts to improve the model data within Venus-GRAM. Hampton University is developing an empirical global model for Venus. The University of Wisconsin is reanalyzing the Venus Express radio occultation observations and analyzing the Akatsuki thermal imaging data. Upgraded Venus-GRAM Release. GRAM Suite Version 1.3 will be released in September 2021 and will contain the rearchitected Venus-GRAM, including the common GRAM framework and planet–specific code. A User Guide and Programmer’s Manual are released with all GRAMs. Conclusions: GRAMs are frequently used toolsets and vital in assessing effects of atmospheres on interplanetary spacecraft during the program life cycle process. Releases of the GRAM Suite, upgrades of the existing planetary GRAMs, and development of new planetary GRAMs are ongoing. Venus-GRAM atmosphere model upgrades will be included in the next phase of GRAM tasks. References: [1] Kliore, A. J. et al. (1985) ASR, 5, 11, 1-304. [2] Justh, H. L. et al. (2006) AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference & Exhibit, Abstract AIAA-2006-6394. [3] Guide to Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models, BSR/AIAA G-003-2010. [4] Limaye, S. S. (2012), LPSC VEXAG Townhall Meeting. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the NASA SMD.

atmospheric models↗
DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Tropical Convection Characteristics in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 2

Accurate simulation of subseasonal tropical moist convection remains a key challenge for Earth system models. The difficulties stem from the reliance of cumulus cloud processes on model parameterizations and the need to represent the multiscale nature of interactions among clouds, radiation, moisture, circulation, and surface energy fluxes. Equatorial convection drives circulation anomalies that can affect weather patterns and extremes globally, motivating efforts to better understand and simulate these tropical disturbances. Here, a detailed review of subseasonal tropical convective behavior as simulated in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) is presented, with comparison to its predecessor version 1 (E3SMv1) and reference data sets. Model structural changes to the deep convective trigger function and surface fluxes, along with parametric tuning of the cloud and microphysics schemes, together result in an improved depiction of organized tropical convection across scales. In particular, E3SMv2 exhibits a more realistic Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) and low‐frequency Kelvin waves—owing to a sharper time mean equatorial meridional moisture gradient and improved convection‐circulation coupling —as well as a better depiction of MJO Northern Hemisphere teleconnections. Despite these improvements, subseasonal precipitation variance continues to be strongly underestimated in E3SMv2. Use of a cloud plume model also reveals that the coupling between daily averaged tropical precipitation and lower tropospheric instability in E3SM is inconsistent with observations, a bias that could potentially impact the simulation of intraseasonal disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model America - data and models of every U.S. building

The 5-year goal of the 'Model America' concept was to generate a model of every building in the United States. This data repository delivers on that goal. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite to process multiple types of data, extract building-specific descriptors, generate building energy models, and simulate them on High Performance Computing (HPC) resources. For more information, see AutoBEM-related publications (bit.ly/AutoBEM). There were 125,714,640 buildings detected in the United States and this dataset contains 122,930,327 (97.8%) buildings which resulted in a successful simulation. Future, annual updates have been proposed that may include additional buildings, data improvements, or other algorithmic enhancements. This dataset of 122.9 million buildings includes: Models (state_county.zip) - OpenStudio (v3.1.0) and EnergyPlus (v9.4) building energy models. Please note that the download requires the free Globus Connect Personal (https://www.globus.org/globus-connect-personal); Each model has approximately 3,000 building input descriptors that can be extracted. Please see the EnergyPlus(v9.4) 2,784-page Input/Output Reference Guide (https://energyplus.net/sites/all/modules/custom/nrel_custom/pdfs/pdfs_v9.4.0/InputOutputReference.pdf) for everything that can be retrieved or simulated from these models. These models were derived from the following metadata, which is not included in this dataset: 1. ID - unique building ID 2. County - county name 3. State - state name 4. CZ - ASHRAE Climate Zone designation 5. Clim_Zone - text label of climate zone 6. est_year - estimated year of construction 7. est_commercial - estimated building type (0=residential, 1=commercial) 8. Centroid - building center location in latitude/longitude (from Footprint2D) 9. Footprint2D - building polygon of 2D footprint (lat1/lon1_lat2/lon2_...) 10. Height - building height (meters) 11. Area2D - footprint area (ft2) 12. BuildingType - DOE prototype building designation (IECC=residential) as implemented by OpenStudio-standards 13. WWR_surfaces - percent of each facade (pair of points from Footprint2D) covered by fenestration/windows (average 14.5% for residential, 40% for commercial buildings) 14. NumFloors - number of floors (above-grade) 15. Area - estimate of total conditioned floor area (ft2) 16. Standard - building vintage. These models are made free and openly available in hopes of stimulating any simulation-informed use case. Data is provided as-is with no warranties, express or implied, regarding fitness for a particular purpose. We wish to thank our sponsors which include Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD), U.S. Dept. of Energy's (DOE) Building Technologies Office (BTO), Office of Electricity (OE), Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). This research used resources of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. Please cite as: New, Joshua R., Adams, Mark, Bass, Brett, Berres, Anne, and Clinton, Nicholas (2021). 'Model America - data and models of every U.S. building. [Data set].' Constellation, doi.ccs.ornl.gov/ui/doi/339, April 14, 2021

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗