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Estimation of geopotential differences over intercontinental locations using satellite and terrestrial measurements

An error analysis study was conducted in order to assess the current accuracies and the future anticipated improvements in the estimation of geopotential differences over intercontinental locations. An observation/estimation scheme was proposed and studied, whereby gravity disturbance measurements on the Earth's surface, in caps surrounding the estimation points, are combined with corresponding data in caps directly over these points at the altitude of a low orbiting satellite, for the estimation of the geopotential difference between the terrestrial stations. The mathematical modeling required to relate the primary observables to the parameters to be estimated, was studied for the terrestrial data and the data at altitude. Emphasis was placed on the examination of systematic effects and on the corresponding reductions that need to be applied to the measurements to avoid systematic errors. The error estimation for the geopotential differences was performed using both truncation theory and least squares collocation with ring averages, in case observations on the Earth's surface only are used. The error analysis indicated that with the currently available global geopotential model OSU89B and with gravity disturbance data in 2 deg caps surrounding the estimation points, the error of the geopotential difference arising from errors in the reference model and the cap data is about 23 kgal cm, for 30 deg station separation.

Pavlis, Nikolaos K.↗

A Monte Carlo Uncertainty Analysis of Ozone Trend Predictions in a Two Dimensional Model

We use Monte Carlo analysis to estimate the uncertainty in predictions of total O3 trends between 1979 and 1995 made by the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional (2D) model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics. The uncertainty is caused by gas-phase chemical reaction rates, photolysis coefficients, and heterogeneous reaction parameters which are model inputs. The uncertainty represents a lower bound to the total model uncertainty assuming the input parameter uncertainties are characterized correctly. Each of the Monte Carlo runs was initialized in 1970 and integrated for 26 model years through the end of 1995. This was repeated 419 times using input parameter sets generated by Latin Hypercube Sampling. The standard deviation (a) of the Monte Carlo ensemble of total 03 trend predictions is used to quantify the model uncertainty. The 34% difference between the model trend in globally and annually averaged total O3 using nominal inputs and atmospheric trends calculated from Nimbus 7 and Meteor 3 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 data is less than the 46% calculated 1 (sigma), model uncertainty, so there is no significant difference between the modeled and observed trends. In the northern hemisphere midlatitude spring the modeled and observed total 03 trends differ by more than 1(sigma) but less than 2(sigma), which we refer to as marginal significance. We perform a multiple linear regression analysis of the runs which suggests that only a few of the model reactions contribute significantly to the variance in the model predictions. The lack of significance in these comparisons suggests that they are of questionable use as guides for continuing model development. Large model/measurement differences which are many multiples of the input parameter uncertainty are seen in the meridional gradients of the trend and the peak-to-peak variations in the trends over an annual cycle. These discrepancies unambiguously indicate model formulation problems and provide a measure of model performance which can be used in attempts to improve such models.

Considine, D. B.↗

Generating a Grid for Unstructured RANS Simulations of Jet Flows

A study has been performed to determine best practices for generating unstructured grids for Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations of jet flows. The Axisymmetric Near-Sonic Jet Case from the Turbulence Modeling Resource was used for this study: a Mach 0.985 flow through the 2-in. diameter Acoustic Reference Nozzle (ARN2). Simulations were run with FUN3D and used the Menter Shear Stress Transport (SST-V), Spalart-Allmaras (S-A), and k-kL turbulence models. The axial velocity and turbulent kinetic energy fields in the jet plume of the unstructured grid solutions were compared to those of the baseline structured grid solution provided by the Turbulence Modeling Resource. Only solutions using grids with structured-like elements in the jet plume showed good agreement with the baseline structured grid solution. Using the SST-V turbulence model, the fully unstructured grid solutions predicted the jet potential core to decay upstream of the baseline solution. With the S-A turbulence model, the unstructured grid solutions predicted the jet potential core to decay upstream of the baseline solution. The solutions using the k-kL turbulence model seemed less sensitive to grid topology. Nozzle massflow and thrust performance were also compared for all simulations. Based on the results of this study, it is currently recommended that structured-like grid elements are used in the plumes of jet flows; unstructured grid elements can be used elsewhere.

RANS Simulations; Unstructured Grids; Jet Flows↗

Model-reference attitude control and reaction control jet engine placement for space shuttle

Analytical studies on the theoretical aspects of thrust vector control of large space vehicles were conducted. A system for attitude control of the space shuttle vehicle was developed. Major accomplishments of the project are: (1) investigation of a model-reference adaptive control scheme for controlling the space shuttle attitude and (2) determination of optimum placement of reaction control jet engines on space shuttles.

Boland, J. S., III↗

Model reference adaptive control of flexible robots in the presence of sudden load changes

Direct command generator tracker based model reference adaptive control (MRAC) algorithms are applied to the dynamics for a flexible-joint arm in the presence of sudden load changes. Because of the need to satisfy a positive real condition, such MRAC procedures are designed so that a feedforward augmented output follows the reference model output, thus, resulting in an ultimately bounded rather than zero output error. Thus, modifications are suggested and tested that: (1) incorporate feedforward into the reference model's output as well as the plant's output, and (2) incorporate a derivative term into only the process feedforward loop. The results of these simulations give a response with zero steady state model following error, and thus encourage further use of MRAC for more complex flexibile robotic systems.

Steinvorth, Rodrigo↗

Accurate Realization of GPS Vertical Global Reference Frame

The goal of this project is to improve our current understanding of GPS error sources associated with estimates of radial velocities at global scales. An improvement in the accuracy of radial global velocities would have a very positive impact on a large number of geophysical studies of current general interest such as global sea-level and climate change, coastal hazards, glacial isostatic adjustment, atmospheric and oceanic loading, glaciology and ice mass variability, tectonic deformation and volcanic inflation, and geoid variability. A set of GPS error sources relevant to this project are those related to the combination of the positions and velocities of a set of globally distributed stations as determined &om the analysis of GPS data, including possible methods of combining and defining terrestrial reference frames. This is were our research activities during this reporting period have concentrated. During this reporting period, we have researched two topics: (1) The effect of errors on the GPS satellite antenna models (or lack thereof) on global GPS vertical position and velocity estimates; (2) The effect of reference W e definition and practice on estimates of the geocenter variations.

Elosegui, Pedro↗

Dynamics and Control of a Disordered System in Space

In this paper, we present some ideas regarding the modeling, dynamics and control aspects of granular spacecraft. Granular spacecraft are complex multibody systems composed of a spatially disordered distribution of a large number of elements, for instance a cloud of N grains in orbit, with N greater than 10(exp 3). These grains can be large (Cubesat-size) or small (mm-size), and can be active, i.e., a fully equipped vehicle capable sensing their own position and attitude, and enabled with propulsion means, or entirely passive. The ultimate objective would be to study the behavior of the single grains and of large ensembles of grains in orbit and to identify ways to guide and control the shape of a cloud composed of these grains so that it can perform a useful function in space, for instance, as an element of an optical imaging system for astrophysical applications. This concept, in which the aperture does not need to be continuous and monolithic, would increase the aperture size several times compared to large NASA observatories such as ATLAST, allowing for a true Terrestrial Planet Imager that would be able to resolve exo-planet details and do meaningful spectroscopy on distant world. In the paper, we address the modeling and autonomous operation of a distributed assembly (the cloud) of large numbers of highly miniaturized space-borne elements (the grains). A multi-scale, multi-physics model is proposed of the dynamics of the cloud in orbit, as well as a control law for cloud shape maintenance, and preliminary simulation studies yield an estimate of the computational effort, indicating a scale factor of approximately N(exp 1.4) as a function of the number of grains. A granular spacecraft can be defined as a collection of a large number of space-borne elements (in the 1000s) designed and controlled such that a desirable collective behavior emerges, either from the interactions among neighboring grains, and/or between the grains and the environment. In this paper, each grain is considered to be a highly miniaturized spacecraft which has limited size and mass, hence it has limited actuation, limited propulsive capability, limited power, limited sensing, limited communication, limited computational resources, limited range of motion, limited lifetime, and may be expendable. The modeling and dynamics of clouds of vehicles is more challenging than with conventional vehicles because we are faced with a probabilistic vehicle composed of a large number of physically disconnected vehicles. First, different scales of motion occur simultaneously in a cloud: translations and rotations of the cloud as a whole (macro-dynamics), relative rotation and translation of one cloud member with respect to another (meso-dynamics), and individual cloud member dynamics (micro-dynamics). Second, the control design needs to be tolerant of the system complexity, of the system architecture (centralized vs. decentralized large scale system control) as well as robust to un-modeled dynamics and noise sources. Figure 1, top left, shows the kinematic parameters of a 1000 element cloud in orbit. The motion of the system is described with respect to a local vertical-local horizontal (LV-LH) orbiting reference frame (x,y,z)=F(sub ORF) of origin O(sub ORF) which rotates with mean motion omega and orbital semi-major axis R(sub 0). The orbital geometry at the initial time is defined in terms of its six orbital elements, and the orbital dynamics equation for point O(sub ORF) is propagated forward in time under the influence of the gravitational field of the primary and other external perturbations, described below. The origin of this frame coincides with the initial position of the center of mass of the system, and the coordinate axes are z along the local vertical, x toward the flight direction, and y in the orbit normal direction. The assumptions we used to model the dynamics are as follows: 1) The inertial frame is fixed at Earth's center. 2) The orbiting Frame ORF follows Keplerian orbit. 3) the cloud system dynamics is referred to ORF. 4) the attitude of each grain uses the principal body frame as body fixed frame. 5) the atmosphere is assumed to be rigidly rotating with the Earth. Regarding the grains forming the cloud: 1) each grain is modeled as a rigid body; 2) a simple attitude estimator provides attitude estimates, 3) a simple guidance logic commands the position and attitude of each grain, 4) a simple local feedback controller based on PD control of local states is used to stabilize the attitude of the vehicle. Regarding the cloud: 1) the cloud as a whole is modeled as an equivalent rigid body in orbit, and 2) an associated graph establishes agent connectivity and enables coupling between modes of motion at the micro and macro scales; 3) a simple guidance and estimation logic is modeled to estimate and command the attitude of this equivalent rigid body; 4) a cloud shape maintenance controller is based on the dynamics of a stable virtual truss in the orbiting frame. Regarding the environmental perturbations acting on the cloud: 1) a non-spherical gravity field including JO (Earth's spherical field) zonal component, J2 (Earth's oblateness) and J3 zonal components is implemented; 2) atmospheric drag is modeled with an exponential model; 3) solar pressure is modeled assuming the Sun is inertially fixed; and 4) the Earth's magnetic field is model using an equivalent dipole model. The equations of motion are written in a referential system with respect to the origin of the orbiting frame and the state is propagated forward in time using an incremental predictor-corrector scheme. A representative cloud with varying number of grains is simulated to identify the limitations in computation time as the number of grains grows. We derive a control law to track a desired surface in the ORF (equivalently to maintain a reference cloud shape) by defining an error from a desired surface shape, and designing a control law that is exponentially stable and reduces the tracking error to zero. Figure 1 (top right) shows a comparison of various requirements for simulation of single spacecraft vs. granular spacecraft, indicating the high degree of complexity that needs to be taken into consideration. The ORF components of control force required by one of the grains is, for this particular case, in the micro-Newton range. However, no attempt has been made yet to reconfigure (or re-orient) the cloud configuration internally, for which forces in the milli-Newton level are expected, depending on the time required to do the reconfiguration. Figure 1, bottom, shows the computation time as a function of the number of grains, indicating an order N(exp 1.43) scaling on a 8 Gb, 1067 MHz RAM MacOSX computer with a 3.06 GHz Intel Core 2 Duo processor. With this metric, the same simulation for a system of N=1000 grains would take 5.4 hours, and 146 hours (i.e., 6 days) for a system with N=10,000 grains. Therefore, efficient ways to simulate this complex system, where not only the time scales of natural system dynamics, but also the sampling times of the Guidance, Navigation, and Control are included, remain to be explored. Additional details on the cloud modeling, dynamics, and control will be described in the paper.

simulation↗

Assimilation of Geosat Altimetric Data in a Nonlinear Shallow-Water Model of the Indian Ocean by Adjoint Approach. Part II: Some Validation and Interpretation of the Assimilated Results: Some Validation and Interpretation of the Assimilated Results - Part 2

This paper examines the results of assimilating Geosat sea level variations relative to the November 1986-November 1988 mean reference, in a nonlinear reduced-gravity model of the Indian Ocean, Data have been assimilated during one year starting in November 1986 with the objective of optimizing the initial conditions and the yearly averaged reference surface. The thermocline slope simulated by the model with or without assimilation is validated by comparison with the signal, which can be derived from expandable bathythermograph measurements performed in the Indian Ocean at that time. The topography simulated with assimilation on November 1986 is in very good agreement with the hydrographic data. The slopes corresponding to the South Equatorial Current and to the South Equatorial Countercurrent are better reproduced with assimilation than without during the first nine months. The whole circulation of the cyclonic gyre south of the equator is then strongly intensified by assimilation. Another assimilation experiment is run over the following year starting in November 1987. The difference between the two yearly mean surfaces simulated with assimilation is in excellent agreement with Geosat. In the southeastern Indian Ocean, the correction to the yearly mean dynamic topography due to assimilation over the second year is negatively correlated to the one the year before. This correction is also in agreement with hydrographic data. It is likely that the signal corrected by assimilation is not only due to wind error, because simulations driven by various wind forcings present the same features over the two years. Model simulations run with a prescribed throughflow transport anomaly indicate that assimilation is rather correcting in the interior of the model domain for inadequate boundary conditions with the Pacific.

Greiner, Eric↗

Assessment of the Quality of the Version 1.07 Temperature-Versus-Pressure Profiles of the Middle Atmosphere from TIMED/SABER

The quality of the retrieved temperature-versus-pressure (or T(p)) profiles is described for the middle atmosphere for the publicly available Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) Version 1.07 (V1.07) data set. The primary sources of systematic error for the SABER results below about 70 km are (1) errors in the measured radiances, (2) biases in the forward model, and (3) uncertainties in the corrections for ozone and in the determination of the reference pressure for the retrieved profiles. Comparisons with other correlative data sets indicate that SABER T(p) is too high by 1-3 K in the lower stratosphere but then too low by 1 K near the stratopause and by 2 K in the middle mesosphere. There is little difference between the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) algorithm results below about 70 km from V1.07 and V1.06, but there are substantial improvements/differences for the non-LTE results of V1.07 for the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (UMLT) region. In particular, the V1.07 algorithm uses monthly, diurnally averaged CO2 profiles versus latitude from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. This change has improved the consistency of the character of the tides in its kinetic temperature (T(sub k)). The T(sub k) profiles agree with UMLT values obtained from ground-based measurements of column-averaged OH and O2 emissions and of the Na lidar returns, at least within their mutual uncertainties. SABER T(sub k) values obtained near the mesopause with its daytime algorithm also agree well with the falling sphere climatology at high northern latitudes in summer. It is concluded that the SABER data set can be the basis for improved, diurnal-to-interannual-scale temperatures for the middle atmosphere and especially for its UMLT region.

Remsberg, E. E.↗

Protoptype integrated design (Pride) system reference manual. Volume 2: Schema definition

An initial description of an evolving relational database schema is presented for the management of finite element model design and analysis data. The report presents a description of each relation including attribute names, data types, and definitions. The format of this report is such that future modifications and enhancements may be easily incorporated.

Fishwick, P. A.↗

Goddard Conference on Mass Storage Systems and Technologies, volume 2

Papers and viewgraphs from the conference are presented. Discussion topics include the IEEE Mass Storage System Reference Model, data archiving standards, high-performance storage devices, magnetic and magneto-optic storage systems, magnetic and optical recording technologies, high-performance helical scan recording systems, and low end helical scan tape drives. Additional discussion topics addressed the evolution of the identifiable unit for processing (file, granule, data set, or some similar object) as data ingestion rates increase dramatically, and the present state of the art in mass storage technology.

Kobler, Ben↗

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP): Experimental Design and Boundary Conditions (Experiment 2)

The Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has expanded to include a model intercomparison for the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.29 to 2.97 million yr ago). This project is referred to as PlioMIP (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project). Two experiments have been agreed upon and together compose the initial phase of PlioMIP. The first (Experiment 1) is being performed with atmosphere only climate models. The second (Experiment 2) utilizes fully coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Following on from the publication of the experimental design and boundary conditions for Experiment 1 in Geoscientific Model Development, this paper provides the necessary description of differences and/or additions to the experimental design for Experiment 2.

Haywood, A. M.↗

Implications of crater distributions on Venus

The horizontal locations of craters on Venus are consistent with randomness. However, (1) randomness does not make crater counts useless for age indications; (2) consistency does not imply necessity or optimality; and (3) horizontal location is not the only reference frame against which to test models. Re (1), the apparent smallness of resurfacing areas means that a region on the order of one percent of the planet with a typical number of craters, 5-15, will have a range of feature ages of several 100 My. Re (2), models of resurfacing somewhat similar to Earth's can be found that are also consistent and more optimal than random: i.e., resurfacing occurring in clusters, that arise and die away in lime intervals on the order of 50 My. These agree with the observation that there are more areas of high crater density, and fewer of moderate density, than optimal for random. Re (3), 799 crater elevations were tested; there are more at low elevations and fewer at high elevations than optimal for random: i.e., 54.6 percent below the median. Only one of 40 random sets of 799 was as extreme.

Kaula, W. M.↗

Studies of extra-solar OORT clouds and the Kuiper disk

This is the second report for NAGW-3023, Studies of Extra-Solar Oort Clouds and the Kuiper Disk. We are conducting research designed to enhance our understanding of the evolution and detectability of comet clouds and disks. This area holds promise for also improving our understanding of outer solar system formation, the bombardment history of the planets, the transport of volatiles and organics from the outer solar system to the inner planets, and the ultimate fate of comet clouds around the Sun and other stars. According to 'standard' theory, both the Kuiper Disk and Oort Cloud are (at least in part) natural products of the planetary accumulation stage of solar system formation. One expects such assemblages to be a common attribute of other solar systems. Therefore, searches for comet disks and clouds orbiting other stars offer a new method for infering the presence of planetary systems. Our three-year effort consists of two major efforts: (1) observational work to predict and search for the signatures of Oort Clouds and comet disks around other stars; and (2) modelling studies of the formation and evolution of the Kuiper Disk (KD) and similar assemblages that may reside around other stars, including Beta Pic. These efforts are referred to as Task 1 and 2, respectively.

Stern, S. Alan↗

Studies of extra-solar Oort Clouds and the Kuiper Disk

This is the September 1995 Semi-Annual report for Studies of Extra-Solar Oort Clouds and the Kuiper Disk. We are conducting research designed to enhance our understanding of the evolution and detectability of comet clouds and disks. This area holds promise for also improving our understanding of outer solar system formation the bombardment history of the planets, the transport of volatiles and organics from the outer solar system to the inner planets, and to the ultimate fate of comet clouds around the Sun and other stars. According to 'standard' theory, both the Kuiper Disk and the Oort Cloud are (at least in part) natural products of the planetary accumulation stage of solar system formation. One expects such assemblages to be a common attribute of other solar systems. Therefore, searches for comet disks and clouds orbiting other stars offer a new method for inferring the presence of planetary systems. This project consists of two major efforts: (1) observational work to predict and search for the signatures of Oort Clouds and comet disks around other stars; and (2) modelling studies of the formation and evolution of the Kuiper Disk (KD) and similar assemblages that may reside around other stars, including beta Pic. These efforts are referred to as Task 1 and 2.

Stern, Alan↗

Aircraft system modeling error and control error

A method for modeling error-driven adaptive control of an aircraft. Normal aircraft plant dynamics is modeled, using an original plant description in which a controller responds to a tracking error e(k) to drive the component to a normal reference value according to an asymptote curve. Where the system senses that (1) at least one aircraft plant component is experiencing an excursion and (2) the return of this component value toward its reference value is not proceeding according to the expected controller characteristics, neural network (NN) modeling of aircraft plant operation may be changed. However, if (1) is satisfied but the error component is returning toward its reference value according to expected controller characteristics, the NN will continue to model operation of the aircraft plant according to an original description.

Kulkarni, Nilesh V.↗

Evaluation of a pulse control law for flexible spacecraft

The following analytical and experimental studies were conducted: (1) A simple algorithm was developed to suppress the structural vibrations of 3-dimensional distributed parameter systems, subjected to interface motion and/or directly applied forces. The algorithm is designed to cope with structural oscillations superposed on top of rigid-body motion: a situation identical to that encountered by the SCOLE components. A significant feature of the method is that only local measurements of the structural displacements and velocities relative to the moving frame of reference are needed. (2) A numerical simulation study was conducted on a simple linear finite element model of a cantilevered plate which was subjected to test excitations consisting of impulsive base motion and of nonstationary wide-band random excitation applied at its root. In each situation, the aim was to suppress the vibrations of the plate relative to the moving base. (3) A small mechanical model resembling an aircraft wing was designed and fabricated to investigate the control algorithm under realistic laboratory conditions.

Source record↗

The Visible Imaging System (VIS) for the Polar Spacecraft

The Visible Imaging System (VIS) is a set of three low-light-level cameras to be flown on the POLAR spacecraft of the Global Geospace Science (GGS) program which is an element of the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) campaign. Two of these cameras share primary and some secondary optics and are designed to provide images of the nighttime auroral oval at visible wavelengths. A third camera is used to monitor the directions of the fields-of-view of these sensitive auroral cameras with respect to sunlit Earth. The auroral emissions of interest include those from N+2 at 391.4 nm, 0 I at 557.7 and 630.0 nm, H I at 656.3 nm, and 0 II at 732.0 nm. The two auroral cameras have different spatial resolutions. These resolutions are about 10 and 20 km from a spacecraft altitude of 8 R(sub e). The time to acquire and telemeter a 256 x 256-pixel image is about 12 s. The primary scientific objectives of this imaging instrumentation, together with the in-situ observations from the ensemble of ISTP spacecraft, are (1) quantitative assessment of the dissipation of magnetospheric energy into the auroral ionosphere, (2) an instantaneous reference system for the in-situ measurements, (3) development of a substantial model for energy flow within the magnetosphere, (4) investigation of the topology of the magnetosphere, and (5) delineation of the responses of the magnetosphere to substorms and variable solar wind conditions.

Frank, L. A.↗