Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Representative Key Risks”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates, with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

Herein, this article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geothermal Deep Direct-Use for Low-Carbon Heating: A Case Study at Cornell University

Cornell University is developing a geothermal deep direct-use system to provide reliable, low carbon, and cost-competitive heating for its main campus in Ithaca, New York. This geothermal system, also referred to as Earth Source Heat, would provide the majority of the campus heating load and represents a key pillar for the university to become carbon neutral by 2035. Over the last 10 years, numerous desktop, seismic, and geophysical studies have been undertaken at Cornell to characterize the local subsurface, predict long-term reservoir performance, design the integration into the existing district heating network, and estimate capital and levelized costs. Recently, the university received funding for drilling an observatory well to obtain in-situ subsurface data (e.g., reservoir temperatures, pressures, fluid chemistry, stress field), significantly lowering subsurface uncertainty and de-risking the project. Drilling of the test well is planned for fall 2021. This paper provides an overview and status of the project, including a summary of past studies and a description of the proposed well and planned testing activities.

Cornell University↗

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Workshop Report: Rural Electric Cooperative Distributed Energy Resource Business Model Development Workshops

The United States' energy future is being shaped by decades of technology innovation, rapidly changing consumer requirements, and governmental focus on securing reliable, low-cost energy sources. With expanded electrification and increased emphasis on grid reliability coupled with the heightened complexity and risks associated with transmission infrastructure, the use of distributed energy resources (DERs) is more commonly being considered a safe, efficient, and cost-effective way to maintain grid resilience and reliability. Amidst improvements in performance, decreasing costs, and unprecedented federal policy support for DERs, electric cooperatives are considering new opportunities to use these assets to ensure secure and reliable operations for millions of customers. In light of these developments, a series of workshops were held to collaborate on the development of business models for DERs in rural electric cooperative ecosystems. The first workshop was held July 11, 2024, at the Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association Inc. headquarters in Westminster, Colorado (hereafter referred to as the "Tri-State Workshop"). The second workshop was hosted by PNGC Power on Oct. 9, 2024, in Portland, Oregon (hereafter referred to as the "PNGC Power Workshop"). These workshops convened representatives from G&Ts, distribution cooperatives,2 the energy industry, the financial community, the U.S. government, national and regional organizations, and national laboratories to share perspectives on the unique needs, challenges, and opportunities that they face as DERs are further integrated into the grid. The workshops were designed to address the following objectives: (1) develop the enabling attributes of electric cooperative DER business models, (2) explore pathways for generating community benefits from these assets, and (3) identify technical challenges and market risks for DERs in rural electric cooperative service territories. This report outlines key findings and major themes identified by workshop participants that federal agencies, G&Ts, distribution cooperatives, and other entities can consider to advance electric cooperative DER business models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Case For Intra-rack Resource Disaggregation in HPC

The expected halt of traditional technology scaling is motivating increased heterogeneity in high-performance computing (HPC) systems with the emergence of numerous specialized accelerators. As heterogeneity increases, so does the risk of underutilizing expensive hardware resources if we preserve today’s rigid node configuration and reservation strategies. This has sparked interest in resource disaggregation to enable finer-grain allocation of hardware resources to applications. However, there is currently no data-driven study of what range of disaggregation is appropriate in HPC. To that end, we perform a detailed analysis of key metrics sampled in NERSC’s Cori, a production HPC system that executes a diverse open-science HPC workload. In addition, we profile a variety of deep-learning applications to represent an emerging workload. We show that for a rack (cabinet) configuration and applications similar to Cori, a central processing unit with intra-rack disaggregation has a 99.5% probability to find all resources it requires inside its rack. In addition, ideal intra-rack resource disaggregation in Cori could reduce memory and NIC resources by 5.36% to 69.01% and still satisfy the worst-case average rack utilization.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Paragenetic controls on CO 2 -fluid-rock interaction and weakening in a macroporous-dominated sandstone

The injection and storage of anthropogenic CO 2 in the subsurface is being deployed as a climate change mitigation tool; however, diagenetic-paragenetic heterogeneity in sandstone reservoirs often contributes to interval specific chemomechanical changes that affect injection and can increase leakage risk.In this paper we address reservoir heterogeneities’ impact on chemomechanical changes in a macroporous-dominated lithofacies of Morrow B sandstone, a formation containing several diagenetically-distinct hydraulic facies while undergoing enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. We performed three flow-through experiments using a CO 2 -charged or uncharged formation water combined with four indirect tensile strength tests per post-test sample. We then used the microstructure and paragenetic sequence to understand chemomechanical weakening with key observations as follows: dissolution of carbonates and feldspars changed porosity; increased permeability led to reclassifying each sample in a different hydraulic flow unit; decreased ultrasonic velocity; and did not lead to a loss of tensile strength. Tensile strength maintenance occurred due to the low abundance and minor dissolution of siderite, the stability of quartz, and the relative position of diagenetic ankerite within feldspar. This macroporous-dominated lithofacies is the primary reservoir for the Morrow B Sandstone, and is analogous to other porous sandstone reservoirs. It represents an end-member of a chemomechanically low-risk siliceous CO 2 sequestration and CO 2 -EOR reservoir.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs) Supplier Cohort Workshops Cohort Summary [Slides]

This Summary slide deck summarizes the key outcomes of the Advanced Transmission Technologies (ATTs) supplier cohort, part of Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance (TADA) program. The program aimed to strengthen grid resilience through cybersecurity controls, supply-chain security, and Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) for advanced transmission technologies. The cohort brought together vendors representing the full range of Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs), including providers of Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR), Advanced Power Flow Control (APFC), Transmission Topology Optimization (TTO), and High-Performance Conductors (HPCs). Discussions focused on institutional, integration, and operational barriers limiting GET adoption; cybersecurity risks at EMS/SCADA, cloud, and network integration points; and supply-chain transparency issues such as semiconductor dependence and SBOM/HBOM expectations. Participants also addressed operator trust, human-in-the-loop requirements, and challenges with utility adoption, while exploring how CIE can support secure deployment of GETs. This deck represents a consolidated summary of challenges and risks identified by vendors, cross-cutting themes and technology-specific insights from three cohort workshops, and actionable mitigations to guide utilities, vendors, and the Department of Energy in advancing secure, trusted deployment of GETs.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The cardiac molecular setting of metabolic syndrome in pigs reveals disease susceptibility and suggests mechanisms that exacerbate COVID-19 outcomes in patients

Abstract Although metabolic syndrome (MetS) is linked to an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the cardiac-specific risk mechanism is unknown. Obesity, hypertension, and diabetes (all MetS components) are the most common form of CVD and represent risk factors for worse COVID-19 outcomes compared to their non MetS peers. Here, we use obese Yorkshire pigs as a highly relevant animal model of human MetS, where pigs develop the hallmarks of human MetS and reproducibly mimics the myocardial pathophysiology in patients. Myocardium-specific mass spectroscopy-derived metabolomics, proteomics, and transcriptomics enabled the identity and quality of proteins and metabolites to be investigated in the myocardium to greater depth. Myocardium-specific deregulation of pro-inflammatory markers, propensity for arterial thrombosis, and platelet aggregation was revealed by computational analysis of differentially enriched pathways between MetS and control animals. While key components of the complement pathway and the immune response to viruses are under expressed, key N6-methyladenosin RNA methylation enzymes are largely overexpressed in MetS. Blood tests do not capture the entirety of metabolic changes that the myocardium undergoes, making this analysis of greater value than blood component analysis alone. Our findings create data associations to further characterize the MetS myocardium and disease vulnerability, emphasize the need for a multimodal therapeutic approach, and suggests a mechanism for observed worse outcomes in MetS patients with COVID-19 comorbidity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of Plant Reload Optimization Framework Capabilities for Core Design and Fuel Performance Analysis

The United States (U.S.) nuclear industry faces a challenge in maintaining required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects of light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plant (NPP) operations. Safety can become more economical by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as the one being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. The LWRS Program promotes a wide range of research and development activities with the goal of maximizing both the safety and economic efficiency of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given many plants are now considering second license renewals. The RISA Pathway has two main goals: (1) deploy methodologies and technologies that better represent safety margins and cost and safety factors and (2) develop advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. The Plant Reload Optimization Platform development project aims to build a reactor core design tool that includes reactor safety and fuel performance analyses, and also uses artificial intelligence to support optimization of core design solutions. This report summarizes Fiscal Year 2022 (FY-22) activity in platform capability developments in RAVEN. This platform performs simulations using industry codes for core design (i.e., PARCS) and fuel performance (i.e., TRANSURANUS) which will allow expansion of the capabilities to include advanced fuel designs such as accident-tolerant fuel (ATF)s with high burnup.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development of Genetic Algorithm Based Multi-Objective Plant Reload Optimization Platform

The U.S. nuclear industry is facing a challenge in maintaining required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects of light-water reactor nuclear power plant operations. Safety can become more economical by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as the one being developed in the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program promotes a wide range of research and development activities to maximize both the safety and economic efficiency of nuclear power plants through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are now considering second license renewals. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway has two main goals: Deploy methodologies and technologies that better represent safety margins and cost and safety factors; Develop advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operations. The Plant Reload Optimization Platform development project aims to build a reactor core design tool that includes reactor safety and fuel performance analyses and uses artificial intelligence to support the optimization of core design solutions. This report summarizes genetic-algorithm-based multi-objective fuel reload optimization activities, specifically: Developing the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II optimizer in the Risk Analysis and Virtual ENviroment (RAVEN); Demonstrating and validating the developed non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II optimizer using benchmark optimization problems.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cell Free and Immobilization Technologies (CFIT)

Today, several key factors negatively impact the production of fuels and chemicals from renewable sources. Common hindrances in the biological production of biochemicals are: (1) end-product or intermediate toxicity to the microbial biocatalyst, (2) the diversion of carbon to biomass formation, and (3) co-production of undesired byproducts. A particularly attractive alternative is to eliminate the biocatalyst entirely and instead operate the desired metabolic pathways in isolation, thus circumventing the roadblocks of biological toxicity, lower yields, and lack of specificity. However, cell-free enzyme systems still suffer from low productivities owing in part to the effects of free diffusion of intermediates, lack of long term enzyme stability, cofactor cost or inefficient recycling rates, and finally, the cost of enzyme production/purification. This project represents a new effort to propose innovative and cost competitive routes to producing biochemicals from a variety of feedstocks using cell free approaches. These routes will help reduce the current risk and cost associated with classical cell free production. Cell free technologies show promise for application to the production of toxic/inhibitory products or products difficult to separate from microbial growth media and can help reduce the production barriers in multiple areas of biological conversion of feedstocks to biochemicals. More specifically, we are developing new technologies and routes that could be used to produce high value biochemicals such as 2,3 BDO and terpenes (among many others) from biomass derived C5/C6 sugars or lignin but also from waste byproducts such as glycerol. This project will lead to significant innovation and also lead to new concepts and rational design of pathways and enzymes. Within this project, we will develop new metabolic enzyme cascades that will represent natural or artificial combinations of enzymes to produce the desired biochemicals from a variety of feedstocks. We are also developing basic design principals for constructing synthetic metabolons, using fusion proteins and synthetic protein scaffolds, to promote substrate channeling and stability while conserving peak activity. Additionally, our efforts include a techno economic analysis (TEA) of cell free approaches to provide the sensitivities of the process to enzyme loading, activity, pH, reactor volumes, cofactor recycling rates. Finally, we are focusing on further increasing stability, operating lifetime and efficiency of the pathway enzymes by immobilization on support surfaces. We are also focus on immobilizing pathway enzymes or combinations of enzymes on several different conducting polymers and evaluate the effect on stability and operating lifetime. As more combinations become available we will conduct a more systematic study of the means of immobilizing these enzymes. This preliminary work will enable the in-depth study of cofactor recycling at these interfaces using mediators for electron transfer. Taken together, these approaches will enable process intensification, continuous operation, lower capital and separations costs and end-product flexibility, and thus has the potential to contribute significantly to BETO's goals of cost competitive biofuels and bioproducts. To date we have demonstrated 1) the conversion of pyruvate to 2,3 BDO (4 enzymes with cofactor recycling, no additional cofactors needed) at >100g/L (>3g/L/h) using our enzyme tethering approach, 2) Generated mutants of a key redox enzyme with >180- fold improvement in NADH utilization over WT to >85% of NADPH utilization. 3) Produced mevalonate at >10g/L from glucose, limonene at >10g/L from mevalonate and more than >5g/L from glucose with crude enzyme preparations and complete cofactor recycling. 4) successfully generated fully active cross-linked aggregates (CLEAs) of NOX, a cofactor-regenerating water-forming oxidase that is key to our process with increased stability 5) Engineered and identified enzymes able to use the biomimetic cofactor NMN and synthesized new synthetic cofactors.

biocatalysis↗

Bio-project “derisking” through development of systematic methodologies and frameworks for risk assessment

One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Characterization of front contact degradation in monocrystalline and multicrystalline silicon photovoltaic modules following damp heat exposure

Reliability and durability tests play a key role in the photovoltaic (PV) industry by minimizing potential failure risks for both existing and new cell and module technologies. In this work, a detailed study of contact degradation in monocrystalline and multicrystalline PV modules is performed. The modules are subjected to a sequence of damp heat (DH) exposures followed by electrical characterization after each step. Electroluminescence (EL) imaging shows different darkening patterns for monocrystalline modules compared to multicrystalline modules; the former shows darkening near the busbars and the latter shows it across virtually the entire cell surface. The primary loss mechanism is confirmed to be resistive after comparing the current-voltage (I–V) characteristics at each DH exposure step. Representative samples have been cored out from both the degraded modules and controls for materials characterization to gain further insights into the degradation mechanism. Top-down and cross-sectional scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), and top-down high-resolution X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis performed on the cored samples confirm the degradation is due to metallization corrosion. Our study suggests that the difference in the darkening pattern can most likely be attributed to the different silver paste composition used for contacting each cell technology, particularly the composition of the glass frit.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Residential Vehicle-to-Home Backup Power Capabilities: Key Findings from a ComEd Beneficial Electrification R&D Pilot

This report summarizes key findings from a collaborative technical study of residential, non-grid-tied vehicle-to-home (V2H) backup power systems in Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd’s) service territory. The work integrates (1) a feeder-level technoeconomic analysis (TEA) using historical outage-event data and simulated electric-vehicle (EV) driving/charging profiles to estimate potential reliability and customer interruption-cost impacts under V2H and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) adoption scenarios; (2) controlled laboratory performance testing of a representative V2H backup ecosystem to characterize transfer-to-backup behavior, sustained power delivery, efficiency trends, and repeatable reliability limitations; and (3) a cybersecurity assessment aligned with NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 and ISO/SAE 21434 to evaluate interface-level risk drivers and identify program-relevant mitigations. Results indicate that V2H can provide measurable resilience value, but outcomes are strongly context dependent on outage patterns and the share of events that are “V2H-applicable.” Typical transfer-to-backup behavior clustered on the order of minutes, but rare long-delay edge cases were observed (including an event approaching 30 minutes) and should be treated as a reliability risk. High-power testing showed that peak-rated output is not necessarily continuously deliverable; stable operation may require operation below nameplate ratings and attention to thermal and installation constraints. The cybersecurity assessment highlights a broad attack surface spanning commissioning, home networks, embedded services, and cloud/OTA pathways, motivating minimum controls for secure onboarding, signed updates, patch cadence, and coordinated vulnerability response for any scaled deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Securing Future Energy Supplies: From Renewables to Microreactors

This session will provide insight into how future energy deployments, critical to national-level programs focused on reducing carbon emissions, can be secured-by-design using lessons learned from current energy infrastructure. It will begin with an overview of current threats and risks associated with renewable energy assets and systems, primarily wind and solar, focusing on their control architecture and key system functions for both efficient and safe operations. This talk will then translate the key takeaways from current renewable infrastructure into applications for securing future energy systems, including microreactors and small modular reactors (SMRs), based on planned concepts of operations and control. Microreactors and SMRs are intended to be factory-assembled with commercially available components and deployed in more remote or distributed environments, necessitating centralized control centers, remote monitoring, and offsite maintenance and technical support. All of these factors lead these assets to a security posture and controls more similar to today's renewable energy assets than today's nuclear reactors, which represents a significant shift in mindset for the nuclear industry. This talk will provide justification for this shift as well as a path forward to motivate securing these groundbreaking technologies from the outset of their design and deployment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

Pre-Commercial Scale-Up of a Gas-Fired Absorption Heat Pump

The project sought to advance the maturity of SMTI’s 80 kBTU/hr residential space and water heating GAHP from the engineering prototype stage (TRL-7) to pre-production readiness by addressing manufacturing, balance of system design and installation, cost, reliability, and field application questions. As part of this project, the project team has: (1) Matured the design package for a commercially ready product (2) Demonstrated compliance with relevant ANSI standards (3) Completed manufacturing and assembly process specifications (4) Completed total production cost estimates and capital equipment requirements (5) Initiated component and system level reliability assessments (6) Completed a small field demonstration including measured performance, installation requirements and expected costs, and customer/key stakeholder feedback. (7) Completed a Techno-economic analysis for representative applications and climate zones, including justification for utility incentive programs. (8) Completed a market intelligence report. Scope of Work: A multi-faceted project was completed that included: (a) design for manufacturing tasks for both the sealed system and balance of system, (b) development and trial of key manufacturing processes and techniques, (c) evaluation of component and system level reliability, (d) exploration of make/buy decisions including impact on cost and required capital. Additionally, (e) installation and monitoring of a small number of field test units was completed to demonstrate energy savings and collect customer/installer feedback, and (f) a focused market research task was completed to explore potential barriers and improve market introduction plans. These tasks addressed many of the remaining technical risks regarding long-term reliability, verification of manufacturing cost estimates and identification of cost concerns, identify installation and balance of system design criteria necessary to achieve energy savings and installed cost goals, and identify market barriers and strategies prior to product market introduction.

03 NATURAL GAS↗