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NASA NTRS2018

Understanding Climate-Vegetation Interactions in Global Rainforests Through a GP-Tree Analysis

The tropical rainforests are the largest reserves of terrestrial carbon and, therefore, the future of these rainforests is a question that is of immense importance in the geoscience research community. With the recent severe Amazonian droughts in 2005 and 2010 and on-going drought in the Congo region for more than two decades, there is growing concern that these forests could succumb to precipitation reduction, causing extensive carbon release and feedback to the carbon cycle. However, there is no single ecosystem model that quantifies the relationship between vegetation health in these rainforests and climatic factors. Small scale studies have used statistical correlation measure and simple linear regression to model climate-vegetation interactions, but suffer from the lack of comprehensive data representation as well as simplistic assumptions about dependency of the target on the covariates. In this paper we use genetic programming (GP) based symbolic regression for discovering equations that govern the vegetation climate dynamics in the rainforests. Expecting micro-regions within the rainforests to have unique characteristics compared to the overall general characteristics, we use a modified regression-tree based hierarchical partitioning of the space to build individual models for each partition. The discovery of these equations reveal very interesting characteristics about the Amazon and the Congo rainforests. Our method GP-tree shows that the rainforests exhibit tremendous resiliency in the face of extreme climatic events by adapting to changing conditions.

genetic programming↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Florida Water Resources: Assessing Coastal Resiliency Across Florida's Aquatic Preserves Response To Hurricane Forces

Intensifying weather events, sea level rise, and extensive coastal development in Southwestern Florida are escalating the need for Florida’s mangrove conservation. These mangroves are imperative for coastline stabilization, habitat provision for native species, and water quality management. Our partner, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP), Office of Resilience and Coastal Protection is tasked with monitoring and conserving the Charlotte Harbor, Estero Bay, Rookery Bay, and Pinellas County Aquatic Preserves. We developed the Growth, Resilience, and Optical Vegetation Evaluator (GROVE) Google Earth Engine toolset for partners to determine mangrove forest extent through time, analyze mangrove forest health, and collect several water quality parameters within the preserves from January 2002–August 2022. The toolset provides easily accessible data from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 Operational Land Imager 2 (OLI-2), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Using training datasets of known mangrove forest locations, we also established a machine learning approach to create mangrove extent maps. Maps from all four preserves indicated migration of mangrove forests inland as the greatest areas of change were transitional zones. Additionally, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference turbidity index (NDTI), and chlorophyll-a maps were generated for the partners. This project provides decision makers with a useful tool for understanding temporal changes in Florida’s aquatic preserves, identifying areas of ecological stress, and providing actionable data to make informed plans for mangrove preservation.

Samuel Perrello↗

NASA NTRS2022

Florida Water Resources: Assessing Coastal Resiliency Across Florida's Aquatic Preserves in Response to Hurricane Forces

Remote sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

fmdtools Tutorial: Intro to Resilience Modelling, Simulation, and Visualization in Python With fmdtools

This workshop will cover the basics of using the fmdtools package for the simulation of hazardous scenarios for resilience simulation. The fmdtools simulation package is an open-source python toolkit for simulating the dynamic response of a system to internal and externally-driven hazardous scenarios, including faults and environmental conditions, that can be used to analyze the risks related to these hazards. Prior to the development of fmdtools, researchers had to either adapt an (often limited) propriety toolkit or develop their own design/simulation/analysis codes to develop their models of hazardous events, a significant technical burden to both (1) leveraging resilience modeling methodologies and (2) extending these methodologies with their own contributions. The fmdtools package provides a number of model constructs and simulation and analysis methods to enable the designer to focus to solely on their modeling case-study while still enabling a significant degree of model expressiveness and adaptability via Python-based model definition. This tutorial will present the setup of fmdtools and a high-level overview of its use, as well as some simple examples for understanding how to leverage its modelling, simulation, and analysis capabilities. Familiarity with jupyter notebook and basic python will be assumed.

Daniel Hulse↗

NASA NTRS1991

MAX - An advanced parallel computer for space applications

MAX is a fault-tolerant multicomputer hardware and software architecture designed to meet the needs of NASA spacecraft systems. It consists of conventional computing modules (computers) connected via a dual network topology. One network is used to transfer data among the computers and between computers and I/O devices. This network's topology is arbitrary. The second network operates as a broadcast medium for operating system synchronization messages and supports the operating system's Byzantine resilience. A fully distributed operating system supports multitasking in an asynchronous event and data driven environment. A large grain dataflow paradigm is used to coordinate the multitasking and provide easy control of concurrency. It is the basis of the system's fault tolerance and allows both static and dynamical location of tasks. Redundant execution of tasks with software voting of results may be specified for critical tasks. The dataflow paradigm also supports simplified software design, test and maintenance. A unique feature is a method for reliably patching code in an executing dataflow application.

Lewis, Blair F.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Kenney, Melissa A.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Climate Extremes and Risks: Links Between Climate Science and Decision-Making

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

climate extremes↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Resilience of Scheduled Performance-Based Navigation Arrival Operations

This paper assesses the resilience of scheduled Performance-Based Navigation (PBN) arrival operations. Resilience is defined as an ability to return to nominal operations following a schedule perturbation. Results from a Human-in-the- Loop (HITL) experiment that included off-nominal events to perturb the schedule are described. The schedule comes from a precision trajectory-based arrival manager. The experiment collected data regarding the response to perturbed schedules in three conditions, where: 1) a disturbance rejection algorithm made schedule adjustments automatically, 2) a Traffic Management Coordinator (TMC) participant made schedule adjustments manually, or 3) no schedule adjustments were made. Analyses showed that the simulation’s scheduled PBN operations have inherent resilience, recovering from more than half of the perturbed schedules even with no schedule adjustments. Resilience to the same off-nominal events improved with schedule adjustments; an increased proportion of perturbed schedules recovered within the length of operation run, and the average duration of the schedule’s perturbed state decreased. Compared to the manual schedule adjustments condition, a greater number of schedule adjustments occurred for the same off-nominal events in the automated condition. However, perturbed schedules were recovered more frequently and perturbations were less severe in the automated condition. Subjective and objective workload in the manual and the automated schedule adjustment conditions were similar to the no schedule adjustment condition.

Resilience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gathering Safety Intelligence from Relevant Safety Events

The notion of Safety II grew out of the realization that people are the source of resilience in any given socio-technical system and that people, in fact, produce safety far more often than reduce safety. The talk will highlight some of the key differences between Safety I and Safety II in their assumptions about the nature of operations and the nature of safety as well as some of the limitations of each approach and the ways in which they complement each other. Because we all want to make data-informed decisions and because we already collect a lot of Safety I-type data, the talk will also describe the Flight Safety Foundation’s Learning from All Operations effort which is designed to collect Safety II-type data.

resilience↗

NASA NTRS2010

Causal Factors and Adverse Conditions of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control

The causal factors of accidents from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database and incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) database associated with loss of control (LOC) were examined for four types of operations (i.e., Federal Aviation Regulation Part 121, Part 135 Scheduled, Part 135 Nonscheduled, and Part 91) for the years 1988 to 2004. In-flight LOC is a serious aviation problem. Well over half of the LOC accidents included at least one fatality (80 percent in Part 121), and roughly half of all aviation fatalities in the studied time period occurred in conjunction with LOC. An adverse events table was updated to provide focus to the technology validation strategy of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Project. The table contains three types of adverse conditions: failure, damage, and upset. Thirteen different adverse condition subtypes were gleaned from the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), the FAA Accident and Incident database, and the NTSB database. The severity and frequency of the damage conditions, initial test conditions, and milestones references are also provided.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Resilience: Concepts and Measures

Inertia, the resistance of an ecosystem property to change under stress, is distinguished from resilience, which refers to the degree, manner. and pace of change or recovery in ecosystem properties following disturbance. In turn, these two terms are differentiated from 'stability'. which is used here to refer to the pattern of natural fluctuation in ecosystem properties in the absence of major exogenous disturbance. Four component attributes of resilience are reviewed in the context of Mediterranean-climate examples. The elasticity component concerns the rate of recovery of an ecosystem property following disturbance; amplitude, the threshold of stress beyond which recovery to the initial state does not occur; hysteresis, the degree to which the pattern of recovery after stress differs from that of deterioration under chronic stress, and malleability the ease with which the ecosystem can become permanently altered. Each ecosystem property will typically reveal a different level of resilience to a given stress and stressor. The degree of recovery should not be expected to be complete in any event, due to sample variability and stochastic events. In cyclicallystable ecosystems, the pattern of recovery should be measured in light of this periodicity, and short-term (within-cycle) recovery distinguished from long-term (between-cycle) recovery. The prediction of resilience properties of ecosystems can be approached through a knowledge of the modular structure of foodwebs, through knowledge of the autecological adaptations of key species to the stressor, or through cumulative experience of the response to disturbance at the community level. At present there is much room for investigation of each of these approaches in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems.

Westman, Walter E.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Baltimore Energy & Infrastructure: Assessing Urban Heat Vulnerability in Baltimore Neighborhoods to Inform Transportation Resiliency Planning Efforts

Across the world, climate change is altering cities and their local climate systems. Following global trends of rising mean temperatures, Baltimore, Maryland is projected to experience more frequent extreme heat events. Exacerbated by Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, residents of the city face high temperatures from limited tree canopy, highly paved and impervious surfaces, limited air flow, and high concentrations of localized emissions. Urban heat is dispersed asymmetrically, with historically marginalized populations experiencing disproportionately severe heat. Recognizing the impacts of extreme urban heat, the Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) collaborated with us, the Spring 2024 Goddard Energy and Infrastructure NASA DEVELOP team to assess urban impacts of MTA users and assets and explore opportunities to enhance resiliency planning. We evaluated the feasibility of NASA Earth observations (EOs) in visualizing heat vulnerability in Baltimore City and County. We mapped UHI and extreme heat using remote sensing observations, tailored a Heat Priority Score (HPS) to analyze heat data in tandem with socioeconomic data from American Community Survey (ACS), and utilized SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry (SOLWEIG) model to estimate MTA riders’ thermal comfort. NASA EOs served to quantify the distribution and severity of extreme heat at the block group level, which was found to correlate with a lack of vegetation and presence of densely built-up surroundings. The HPS revealed that extreme heat events most negatively impact communities that exhibit social vulnerability through indicators such as age, race, and income. These findings will inform neighborhood resiliency plans for the MTA that can be incorporated into their Adaptation Resiliency Toolbox (ART).

Baltimore,↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

What Can We Learn From Resilient Pilot Behaviors? The Case of Energy Management While Flying a Star

Recently, there has been increased interest in documenting flightcrew behaviors that contribute to safe operations. Instead of only capturing errors, new efforts are attempting to understand how pilots manage complexity and variability in the operational environment to ensure a safe mission. This approach highlights pilot responses to events and conditions that fall outside typical TEM threats; e.g., revised ATC clearances. This approach presents a two-sided coin: characterize flightcrew resilience /or/ generate insights regarding complexity in the operational environment that is not adequately managed by current flight deck interface designs, procedures, and training. To capture operational complexity, we have been analyzing flight path management tied to flying an RNAV STAR. Because ATC often requests revisions—e.g., descend late—and because RNAV STARs may not align with airplane performance limits, flightcrews need to monitor, anticipate threats to RNAV STAR compliance, and devise ways to accommodate unexpected challenges. In this paper, we identify general strategies that can support response adaptation and explore methods to facilitate training these strategies.

flight operations↗

NASA NTRS2019

Coral Reef Annihilation, Persistence and Recovery at Earth’s Youngest Volcanic Island

The structure and function of coral reef ecosystems is increasingly compromised by multiple stressors, even in the most remote locations. Severe, acute disturbances such as volcanic eruptions represent extreme events that can annihilate entire reef ecosystems, but also provide unique opportunities to examine ecosystem resilience and recovery. Here, we examine the destruction, persistence and initial recovery of reefs associated with the hydromagmatic eruption that created Earth’s newest landmass, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcanic island. Despite extreme conditions associated with the eruption, impacts on nearby reefs were spatially variable. Importantly, even heavily affected reefs showed signs of rapid recovery driven by high recruitment, likely from local refuges. The remote location and corresponding lack of additional stressors likely contribute to the resilience of Hunga’s reefs, suggesting that in the absence of chronic anthropogenic stressors, coral reefs can be resilient to one of the largest physical disturbances on Earth.

Refuge population↗

NASA NTRS2021

Role of Cyber-Physical Testing in Developing Resilient Extraterrestrial Habitats

Extraterrestrial long-term habitat systems (henceforth referred to as habitat systems) require groundbreaking technological advances to overcome the extreme demands introduced by isolation and challenging environments. A habitat system must operate as intended under continuous disruptive conditions. Designing for the demands that challenging environments will place on habitat systems (e.g., wild temperature fluctuations, galactic cosmic rays, destructive dust, meteoroid impacts, vibrations, and solar particle events) represents one of the greatest challenges in this endeavor. This engineering problem necessitates that we design and manage habitat systems to be resilient. System resilience requires a comprehensive approach that accounts for disruptions through the design process and adapts to them in operation. As the habitat system evolves—growing in physical size, complexity, population, and connectivity—and diversifies in operations, it must continue to be safe and resilient. In this endeavor, we should take advantage of lessons learned in developing civil infrastructure responsive to catastrophic natural hazards, autonomous robotics platforms, smart buildings, cyber-physical testing, complex systems, and diagnostics and prognostics for intelligent health management. This study highlights the importance of system resilience and cyber-physical testing to address the grand challenge of developing habitat systems.

Public health and safety↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Contribution of Pilots to Resilience in Normal Operations: A Survey Approach

Much of our knowledge about human performance in flight safety has come from the analysis of undesired events, whether accidents, incidents, or crew behaviors identified via flight exceedance monitoring or observational techniques. In recent years, there has been an acknowledgement that operational personnel are not merely sources of “human error”, but also make a unique human contribution to safe outcomes. In a few celebrated cases, this takes the form of “heroic saves”, but on many more occasions, operational personnel contribute to safety through everyday, often-unnoticed actions that turn potentially hazardous situations into non-events. An emerging approach to safety, frequently referred to as “Safety II,” proposes that the positive human contribution is an important and largely untapped source of safety information. Some airlines have successfully trained observers to identify and record the positive behaviors exhibited by the crew over the course of a flight. In other cases, flight crew are interviewed about good practices or positive behaviors. However, each of these methods are relatively limited in scale and resource intensive. A survey could provide a relatively low-cost approach to systematically gather this information on a larger scale. The primary purpose of the research was to develop and assess a surveys methodology for assessing crews' activities in normal flights and the operational perturbations encountered during normal operations. We hope that such a survey could be both a research tool as well as a safety management aid for the aviation industry. We collected responses concerning revenue flights from two groups of airline pilots (N = 25 & N= 65). The results indicated that relatively few flights proceeded exactly as in the original flight plan. Pilots routinely anticipated and adapted to changing circumstances. We will review the challenges encountered in developing the survey and summarize preliminary findings from two administrations of the survey to airline pilots.

human contribution safety↗

NASA NTRS2017

Increasing Resiliency to Extreme Weather

We work at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, integrating the agency's satellite imagery and projections of extreme weather events into urban planning. In recent weeks, we have watched as Christian's hometown, Houston, has been ransacked by historic rainfall and flooding and Hurricane Irma has battered the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Florida. Then, Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico leaving millions of people without power. Sea-level rise, storm surge, warm ocean temperatures, and extreme rainfall interacted to exacerbate the damages incurred by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Coastal flooding combined with inland flooding to wreak extraordinary havoc.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing and Promoting Functional Resilience in Flight Crews During Exploration Missions

NASA plans to send humans to Mars in about 20 years. The NASA Human Research Program supports research to mitigate the major risks to human health and performance on extended missions. However, there will undoubtedly be unforeseen events on any mission of this nature - thus mitigation of known risks alone is not sufficient to ensure optimal crew health and performance. Research should be directed not only to mitigating known risks, but also to providing crews with the tools to assess and enhance resilience, as a group and individually. We can draw on ideas from complexity theory and network theory to assess crew and individual resilience. The entire crew or the individual crewmember can be viewed as a complex system that is composed of subsystems (individual crewmembers or physiological subsystems), and the interactions between subsystems are of crucial importance for overall health and performance. An understanding of the structure of the interactions can provide important information even in the absence of complete information on the component subsystems. This is critical in human spaceflight, since insufficient flight opportunities exist to elucidate the details of each subsystem. Enabled by recent advances in noninvasive measurement of physiological and behavioral parameters, subsystem monitoring can be implemented within a mission and also during preflight training to establish baseline values and ranges. Coupled with appropriate mathematical modeling, this can provide real-time assessment of health and function, and detect early indications of imminent breakdown. Since the interconnected web of physiological systems (and crewmembers) can be interpreted as a network in mathematical terms, we can draw on recent work that relates the structure of such networks to their resilience (ability to self-organize in the face of perturbation). There are many parameters and interactions to choose from. Normal variability is an established characteristic of a healthy physiological response. Healthy coupling has been investigated less extensively, but there are cases in which too tight or too loose coupling can be problematic. This might be in inter-individual behaviors, such as sleep cycles, coordination of work and meal times, and coupled motions during communication. Less apparent are couplings of physiological systems, nevertheless examples abound of coupled systems which might be monitored: cardio-respiratory rhythms; circadian rhythms, body temperature, and sleep; stress markers and cognition, sleep, and performance; profiles of biochemical markers related to immune function and nutritional status; sensorimotor aspects such as motion sickness, ataxia, reaction time, and manual control. Tools for resilience are then the means to measure and analyze these parameters, incorporate them into appropriate models of normal variability and interconnectedness, and recognize when parameters or their couplings are outside of normal limits. What to do when a problem is identified depends on its nature. Changes can be made to crew procedures, work pacing, interpersonal interactions, sleep cycles, meal timing and content, as guided by the model. Use and continued development of these methods could not only provide tools for resilience, but also meaningful autonomous work for the crew on an extended flight.

Shelhamer, Mark↗