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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

sea level↗
DOE OSTI2022

Receptance coupling substructure analysis and chatter frequency-informed machine learning for milling stability

This paper describes a milling stability identification approach that simultaneously considers: physics-based models for the tool tip frequency response functions and stability predictions; the binary result from a milling test (automatically labeled as stable or unstable based on frequency content); chatter frequency when an unstable result is obtained; and user risk tolerance. The algorithm applies probabilistic Bayesian machine learning with adaptive, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to update the probability of stability with each milling test. Furthermore, the result is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimized milling parameters for maximum metal removal rate using all available information.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks

We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.

Design under uncertainty↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based rate optimization under geologic uncertainty

We propose a novel approach for rate optimization during a waterflood under geologic uncertainty in reservoir properties such as permeability and porosity. The traditional approach typically involves several runs of the forward simulator. This may not scale well when the optimization is to be performed at the full field-level and over multiple geologic realizations. A machine-learning (ML) based approach which is quick and scalable for rate optimization over multiple geologic realizations is proposed instead. The training data for the model is generated by running the forward simulator with randomly assigned well rates using multiple geologic realizations. A reduced order representation of the permeability heterogeneity in each of the realizations is derived using a grid connectivity transformation (GCT). This step involves finding basis functions corresponding to the different modal frequencies of the grid connectivity represented by the grid Laplacian. The projection of the heterogeneous property field along these basis functions gives the basis coefficients that form the reduced order representation. Subsequently, for each training datapoint, streamlines are traced and the minimum time of flight (TOF) representing the tracer breakthrough time at each producer is recorded. The basis coefficients and well rates are fed to a machine learning model as input and the minimum TOF at the producers forms the output of the model. This trained model can then be used along with an optimizer for computing the optimal injection rates to maximize the injection sweep efficiency. This corresponds to minimizing the variance in the minimum TOF within each well group. Different architectures of neural network are tested using 5-fold cross validation to decide the best ML model to compute the streamline time of flight. The trained model is used to perform well rate optimization over multiple realizations of geology by using a risk tolerance penalty. The optimal well rates thus obtained are compared with two cases: a) equal well rates assigned to all injectors and producers and b) well rates obtained by optimizing over a single realization without considering the uncertainty in geology. The optimal well rates are seen to offer better oil recovery and sweep efficiency than both cases.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization Framework to Assess the Demand Response Capacity of a Water Distribution System

As large electricity consumers, water distribution system (WDS) pumping stations have the potential to become meaningful participants in demand response (DR) programs. The authors propose an optimization framework for assessing the DR capacity of a WDS and identifying the optimal bidding strategy for maximizing WDS revenue in the DR spot market. The proposed mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model overcomes computational constraints of previous DR optimization models by adopting a preprocessing procedure to minimize the number of binary variables and implementing a convex relaxation technique to linearize the hydraulic equations. The proposed MILP model also explicitly accounts for varying levels of risk tolerance of WDS operators by varying the recovery period over which pumping returns to business-as-usual operation. The optimization framework is implemented on a skeletonized 48-node WDS model that includes 7 pumps, 6 tanks, and 39 pipes. Using a simulated DR event and water consumption profile, the authors derive the optimal DR supply curves (i.e., compensation price versus load curtailment quantity) and revenue potential of the WDS under six scenarios for DR participation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

FIRE: A Failure-Adaptive RL Framework for Edge Computing Migrations

In edge computing, users' service profiles are migrated between edge servers due to user mobility. Reinforcement Learning (RL) frameworks have been proposed to do so, often trained on simulated data. However, existing RL frameworks overlook occasional server failures, which although rare, impact latency-sensitive applications like AR/VR and real- time obstacle detection. These rare failures, being not adequately represented in historical training data, pose a challenge for data-driven RL algorithms. We introduce FIRE, a framework that adapts to rare events by training a RL policy in an edge computing digital twin environment. We propose FIRE-ImRE, an importance sampling-based Q-learning algorithm, which samples rare events proportionally to their impact on the value function. FIRE considers delay, migration, failure, and backup placement costs across individual and shared service profiles. We prove FIRE-ImRE's boundedness and convergence to optimality. Next, we introduce novel deep Q-learning (FIRE-ImDQL) and actor critic (FIRE-ImACRE) versions of our algorithm to enhance scalability. Here, we extend our framework to accommodate users with varying risk tolerances of rare failure events. Through trace-driven experiments, we show that FIRE reduces edge computing costs compared to vanilla RL and the greedy baseline in the event of failures.

Edge computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber100 Compass [SWR 23-64]

Cyber100 Compass ("Compass") is a unique risk assessment framework that will enable grid system planners to understand and mitigate cybersecurity risk for grids transitioning to high levels of renewable generation, including 100%. The idea for Compass was developed by NREL based on past work on high-renewable grids and a series of discussions with DOE. Compass is part of Cyber100, a portfolio of proposed research activities that would greatly expand understanding of cybersecurity for high-renewable grids. Compass is a desktop application designed with a user-friendly interface. The tool gathers information from users, conducts probabilistic backend calculations, and outputs a series of visualizations to help users understand and analyze their cybersecurity risks based on the unique features of their future grid. Compass will take as inputs the values for different conditions and produce a risk score of the resulting grid. By trying different configurations, system planners can compare the resultant risks against their own risk tolerance and decide which system-of-system controls to implement as they transition toward a 100% renewable grid.

Martin, Maurice↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Reactor Control Systems Authentication Methods and Recommendations

In the dynamic landscape of Operational Technology (OT), and specifically the emerging landscape for Advanced Reactors, the establishment of trust between digital assets emerges as a challenge for cybersecurity modernization. This report reviews existing approaches to authentication in Enterprise environments, and proposed methods for authentication in OT, and analyzes each for its applicability to future Advanced Reactor digital networks. Principles of authentication ranging from underlying cryptographic mechanisms to trust authorities are evaluated through the lens of OT. These facets emphasize the importance of mutual authentication in real-time environments, enabling a paradigm shift from the current approach of strong boundaries to a more malleable network that allows for flexible operation. This work finds that there is a need for evaluation and decision making by industry stakeholders, but current technologies and approaches can be adapted to fit needs and risk tolerances.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

URC/HRC Selection Guidance

Given the importance of the URC and HRC thresholds as part of a physical security program that is designed to protect against radiological sabotage, it is important to provide guidance on how to assign those thresholds consistent with a State’s level of risk tolerance. Without such guidance, most States will be challenged to establish appropriate thresholds or appropriately establish regulations. This document provides guidance on establishing dose limits and where they apply, as well as the timeframe for which the dose limits should be measured. For dose limits, it offers examples of established thresholds based on safety and emergency response thresholds. Whereas, for timeframes, a process to identify possible timeframes is offered.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Southeast Regional CO 2 Utilization and Storage Acceleration Partnership (SECARB-USA): Data Quality Methodology (4.2.1)

SECARB-USA Deliverable 4.2.1 utilizes the outputs from the Needs Assessment (Subtask 2.1) to develop a data quality methodology. Many types of data are needed to evaluate a site for technical and financial viability. Several inventories of data types have been produced (for example NETL, 2010). The objective here is to organize the data types so that the needs met are specified. From this cross index (Table 1 in the Appendix), it will be possible in future tasks to (1) determine, on a site-specific basis, how much of each data type is required at each stage of a project to meet the need, and conversely (2) to further specify and define the data collection methods applied such that the data are tailored to fit that need. Derivative tables can then be developed to semi-quantitively evaluate the extent to which need is critical for early go/no decision points, or if it is more important than average, requiring faster or larger capitalization and spend to meet the need. In an additional step, the current availability of data for a site can be semi-quantitively assessed. From the table of data criticality and the table of data availability, site-specific cost for meeting the data needs can be determined, and allow a pre-permit spend estimated for a portfolio of projects. All of the data needs to evaluate a site are somewhat interconnected. We used criterion (2) above to determine if the data collection design would have to be modified to meet the need; if this was commonly true a linkage was shown. The application of this cross index to sites in the subsequent tasks will demonstrate that the demand for data types varies site-to-site and project-to-project. Examples of factors to be considered are the complexity of the geology, the injection goals such as rate and duration of the injection, and the types of risk and risk tolerance of key stakeholders. In future tasks the team will compare the demand for data with existing data availability. This will, in turn, determine when data needs to be acquired to support project development. For example, in a project area with complex structure, 3-D seismic data may be needed earlier and more urgently than in an area with simple rock body geometries. In some locations, a 3-D seismic survey has already been collected and can be purchased. In other locations the project developer will need to collect these data. For another example, a project near an urban area or near to a park may generate earlier and more substantive public concern than a site that is developed in mined lands. A calculation using the derivative from table 1 will show the different investment needs. Project cost will vary corresponding to data criticality and data availability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Vulnerability-attention analysis for space-related activities

Techniques for representing and analyzing trouble spots in structures and processes are discussed. Identification of vulnerable areas usually depends more on particular and often detailed knowledge than on algorithmic or mathematical procedures. In some cases, machine inference can facilitate the identification. The analysis scheme proposed first establishes the geometry of the process, then marks areas that are conditionally vulnerable. This provides a basis for advice on the kinds of human attention or machine sensing and control that can make the risks tolerable.

Ford, Donnie↗
NASA NTRS2000

Improved Quality in Aerospace Testing Through the Modern Design of Experiments

This paper illustrates how, in the presence of systematic error, the quality of an experimental result can be influenced by the order in which the independent variables are set. It is suggested that in typical experimental circumstances in which systematic errors are significant, the common practice of organizing the set point order of independent variables to maximize data acquisition rate results in a test matrix that fails to produce the highest quality research result. With some care to match the volume of data required to satisfy inference error risk tolerances, it is possible to accept a lower rate of data acquisition and still produce results of higher technical quality (lower experimental error) with less cost and in less time than conventional test procedures, simply by optimizing the sequence in which independent variable levels are set.

DeLoach, R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Reinventing The Design Process: Teams and Models

The future of space mission designing will be dramatically different from the past. Formerly, performance-driven paradigms emphasized data return with cost and schedule being secondary issues. Now and in the future, costs are capped and schedules fixed-these two variables must be treated as independent in the design process. Accordingly, JPL has redesigned its design process. At the conceptual level, design times have been reduced by properly defining the required design depth, improving the linkages between tools, and managing team dynamics. In implementation-phase design, system requirements will be held in crosscutting models, linked to subsystem design tools through a central database that captures the design and supplies needed configuration management and control. Mission goals will then be captured in timelining software that drives the models, testing their capability to execute the goals. Metrics are used to measure and control both processes and to ensure that design parameters converge through the design process within schedule constraints. This methodology manages margins controlled by acceptable risk levels. Thus, teams can evolve risk tolerance (and cost) as they would any engineering parameter. This new approach allows more design freedom for a longer time, which tends to encourage revolutionary and unexpected improvements in design.

Wall, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Implementation of Satellite Formation Flight Algorithms Using SPHERES Aboard the International Space Station

The MIT's Space Systems Laboratory developed the Synchronized Position Hold Engage and Reorient Experimental Satellites (SPHERES) as a risk-tolerant spaceborne facility to develop and mature control, estimation, and autonomy algorithms for distributed satellite systems for applications such as satellite formation flight. Tests performed study interferometric mission-type formation flight maneuvers in deep space. These tests consist of having the satellites trace a coordinated trajectory under tight control that would allow simulated apertures to constructively interfere observed light and measure the resulting increase in angular resolution. This paper focuses on formation initialization (establishment of a formation using limited field of view relative sensors), formation coordination (synchronization of the different satellite s motion) and fuel-balancing among the different satellites.

Mandy, Christophe P.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Flight Team Development in Support of LCROSS - A Class D Mission

The LCROSS (Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite) project presented a number of challenges to the preparation for mission operations. A class D mission under NASA s risk tolerance scale, LCROSS was governed by a $79 million cost cap and a 29 month schedule from "authority to proceed" to flight readiness. LCROSS was NASA Ames Research Center s flagship mission in its return to spacecraft flight operations after many years of pursuing other strategic goals. As such, ARC needed to restore and update its mission support infrastructure, and in parallel, the LCROSS project had to newly define operational practices and to select and train a flight team combining experienced operators and staff from other arenas of ARC research. This paper describes the LCROSS flight team development process, which deeply involved team members in spacecraft and ground system design, implementation and test; leveraged collaborations with strategic partners; and conducted extensive testing and rehearsals that scaled in realism and complexity in coordination with ground system and spacecraft development. As a testament to the approach, LCROSS successfully met its full mission objectives, despite many in-flight challenges, with its impact on the lunar south pole on October 9, 2009.

Tompkins, Paul D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Overcoming Molehills and Mountains Implementing a New Program

This slide presentation reviews some of the challenges and accomplishments of implementing a new program. The purpose of the presentation is to: (1) Share the challenges that were encountered formulating a new program concurrent with formulating & implementing new spacecraft development projects: (a) Immature mission concepts put on the fast track (b) Need to reconcile ambitious objectives with cost and budget reality (c) Changes of major stakeholders (d) Timing, timing, timing (e) Changing ground rules, assumptions, and risk tolerance (f) The role of centers, (2) Share the successes to date despite the challenges (3) Demonstrate how interdependencies between the program, projects, NASA HQ environment, and external political forces affect the process, and how expectations must be managed while dealing with external factors and great change.

Salute, Joan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Advanced Stirling Duplex Materials Assessment for Potential Venus Mission Heater Head Application

This report will address materials selection for components in a proposed Venus lander system. The lander would use active refrigeration to allow Space Science instrumentation to survive the extreme environment that exists on the surface of Venus. The refrigeration system would be powered by a Stirling engine-based system and is termed the Advanced Stirling Duplex (ASD) concept. Stirling engine power conversion in its simplest definition converts heat from radioactive decay into electricity. Detailed design decisions will require iterations between component geometries, materials selection, system output, and tolerable risk. This study reviews potential component requirements against known materials performance. A lower risk, evolutionary advance in heater head materials could be offered by nickel-base superalloy single crystals, with expected capability of approximately 1100C. However, the high temperature requirements of the Venus mission may force the selection of ceramics or refractory metals, which are more developmental in nature and may not have a well-developed database or a mature supporting technology base such as fabrication and joining methods.

Ritzert, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2014

Cutting More than Metal: Breaking the Development Cycle

New technology is changing the way we do business at NASA. The ability to use these new tools is made possible by a learning culture able to embrace innovation, flexibility, and prudent risk tolerance, while retaining the hard-won lessons learned of other successes and failures. Technologies such as 3-D manufacturing and structured light scanning are re-shaping the entire product life cycle, from design and analysis, through production, verification, logistics and operations. New fabrication techniques, verification techniques, integrated analysis, and models that follow the hardware from initial concept through operation are reducing the cost and time of building space hardware. Using these technologies to be more efficient, reliable and affordable requires we bring them to a level safe for NASA systems, maintain appropriate rigor in testing and acceptance, and transition new technology. Maximizing these technologies also requires cultural acceptance and understanding and balancing rules with creativity. Evolved systems engineering processes at NASA are increasingly more flexible than they have been in the past, enabling the implementation of new techniques and approaches. This paper provides an overview of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's new approach to development, as well as examples of how that approach has been incorporated into NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) Program, which counts among its key tenants - safety, affordability, and sustainability. One of the 3D technologies that will be discussed in this paper is the design and testing of various rocket engine components.

Singer, Chris↗