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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Restrictive spirometry pattern among construction trade workers

Spirometry-based studies of occupational lung disease have mostly focused on obstructive or mixed obstructive/restrictive outcomes. We wanted to determine if restrictive spirometry pattern (RSP) is associated with occupation and increased mortality. Study participants included 18,145 workers with demographic and smoking data and repeatable spirometry. The mortality analysis cohort included 15,445 workers with known vital status and cause of death through December 31, 2016. Stratified analyses explored RSP prevalence by demographic and clinical variables and trade. Log-binomial regression models explored RSP risk factors while controlling for important confounders such as smoking, obesity, and comorbidities. Cox regression models explored mortality risk by spirometry category. Prevalence of RSP was very high (28.6%). Mortality hazard ratios for RSP were 1.50 for all causes, 1.86 for cardiovascular diseases, 2.31 for respiratory diseases, and 1.66 for lung cancer. All construction trades except painters, machinists, and roofers had significantly elevated risk for RSP compared to our internal reference group. RSP was significantly associated with both parenchymal and pleural changes seen by chest X-ray. Construction trade workers are at significantly increased risk for RSP independent of obesity. Individuals with RSP are at increased risk for all-cause mortality as well as mortality attributable to respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and lung cancer. RSP deserves greater attention in occupational medicine and epidemiology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal-Hydraulic-Mechanical Modeling and Simulation of Sodium-Potassium–Cooled MARVEL Microreactor Core

The U.S. Department of Energy's Microreactor Program, with Idaho National Laboratory's development of a nuclear microreactor applications test bed named MARVEL, aims to support R&D for the deployment of small, transportable reactors across civilian, industrial, and defense sectors. The MARVEL microreactor, an 85-kWth thermal fission reactor, incorporates TRIGA nuclear fuel and a sodium-potassium eutectic as its primary coolant, designed for safety and efficiency, with natural circulation eliminating the risk of critical heat flux conditions. The reliance on natural circulation for primary cooling means the reactor avoids using fuel spacers to minimize core pressure drop, which could disrupt the primary coolant's natural flow. However, the reactor core’s tight P/D ratio of 1.05, in the absence of fuel spacers, could pose a risk of fuel rod contact and increased peak cladding temperatures. To ensure the reactor safety, this study conducted computational modeling and simulations to investigate the reactor's thermal-hydraulic-mechanical characteristics, including the reactor core heat transfer coefficients, the potential for rod-to-rod contact, and assessed its impact on peak cladding temperature and overall reactor safety. The computational analyses of the MARVEL microreactor core revealed that the thermal deformation of fuel rods under worst-case scenario may lead to the fuel rod contact, but the peak cladding temperatures will remain significantly lower than the safety criteria, ensuring the safety operation reactor without fuel spacers under normal operating conditions.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characteristic of cryogenic hydrogen flames from high-aspect ratio nozzles

Unintentional leaks at hydrogen fueling stations have the potential to form hydrogen jet flames, which pose a risk to people and infrastructure. The heat flux from these jet flames are often used to develop separation distances between hydrogen components and buildings, lot-lines, etc. The heat flux and visible flame length is well understood for releases from round nozzles, but real unintended leaks would be expected to be from higher aspect-ratio cracks. Here, we measured the visible flame length and heat-flux characteristics of cryogenic hydrogen flames from high-aspect ratio nozzles. Heat flux measurements from 5 radiometers were used to assess the single-point vs the multi-point methods for interpretation of heat flux sensor data, finding the axial distance of the sensor for a single-point heat flux measurement to be important. We compare the flame length and heat flux data to flames of both cryogenic and compressed hydrogen from round nozzles. The aspect ratio of the release does not affect the flame length or heat flux significantly, for a given mass flow under the range of conditions studied. The engineering correlations presented in this work enable the prediction of flame length and heat flux which can be used to assess risk at hydrogen fueling stations with liquid hydrogen and develop science-based separation distances for these stations.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Housing Stability Index: Measuring the risk of housing disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic

The Housing Stability Index (HSI) quantifies the decreased stability of housing (renter or owner occupied) across the United States due to missed or deferred housing payments (rent or mortgage payments) or serious delinquency. This is done through calculating the ratio of the near real-time percentage of occupied housing units not at risk of eviction or foreclosure to the baseline percentage of occupied housing units not at risk by county. For purposes of this index, “at risk” indicates a higher percentage of residents unable to make rent or mortgage payments. An HSI value of 1 indicates no additional housing instability (above housing instability before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic) due to COVID-19 while declining values indicate increasing housing instability. Argonne also created two sub-indices, Owner-Occupied Housing Units at Risk and Renter Occupied Housing Units at Risk, to differentiate risk between homeowners and renters.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pharmacoepidemiology, Machine Learning and COVID-19: An intent-to-treat analysis of hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, and COVID-19 outcomes amongst hospitalized US Veterans

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) was proposed as an early therapy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after in vitro studies indicated possible benefit. Previous in vivo observational studies have presented conflicting results, though recent randomized clinical trials have reported no benefit from HCQ amongst hospitalized COVID-19 patients. In this work, we examined the effects of HCQ alone, and in combination with azithromycin, in a hospitalized COVID-19 positive, United States (US) Veteran population using a propensity score adjusted survival analysis with imputation of missing data. From March 1, 2020 through April 30, 2020, 64,055 US Veterans were tested for COVID-19 based on Veteran Affairs Healthcare Administration electronic health record data. Of the 7,193 positive cases, 2,809 were hospitalized, and 657 individuals were prescribed HCQ within the first 48-hours of hospitalization for the treatment of COVID-19. There was no apparent benefit associated with HCQ receipt, alone or in combination with azithromycin, and an increased risk of intubation when used in combination with azithromycin [Hazard Ratio (95% Confidence Interval): 1.55 (1.07, 2.24)]. In conclusion, we assessed the effectiveness of HCQ with or without azithromycin in treating patients hospitalized with COVID-19 using a national sample of the US Veteran population. Using rigorous study design and analytic methods to reduce confounding and bias, we found no evidence of a survival benefit from the administration of HCQ.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Storage Conditions on the Quality and Viability of Switchgrass as a Bioenergy Crop

With growing energy demands and climate concerns, advancements in bioenergy have become imperative. Biofuels promote energy independence, reduce fossil fuel reliance, and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatumis) is an ideal bioenergy crop due to its ability to thrive on marginal lands unsuitable for food crops and its drought tolerance, rendering it a low-maintenance, high-yield option. In the bioenergy industry, energy crops are typically stored to facilitate supply chain management and ensure a continuous supply despite seasonal availability. However, the effective utilization of bioenergy crops is typically contingent upon addressing the challenges associated with biomass storage. These challenges include high moisture content that promotes biological degradation of the biomass leading to increased risk of pathogenic microbes, and chemical degradation that increases the ratio of inconvertible, inorganic materials. These issues lead to a reduction of feedstock value, diminishing the biomass-to-biofuel conversion efficacy, making switchgrass and other bioenergy crops less effective as fuel sources. This project aims to improve the storage of purpose-grown energy crops. Aerobic storage trials were conducted under varying moisture contents to stimulate real-world environmental exposure. Switchgrass samples were rewetted to 30% or 35% and stored in a bioreactor for approximately one month, or until cellular respiration ceased. Degradation indicators, such as dry matter loss, temperature changes, and cellular respiration, were measured throughout this process. Samples for compositional analysis, 16S, and ITS were taken at three different time points: before, during, and after storage, to monitor changes in biomass, microbial communities, and metabolites over time. Preliminary data indicate that dry matter loss is proportional to cellular respiration, with higher moisture content (35%) leading to higher temperatures and elevated dry matter loss. Compositional analysis and microbial community analysis are in progress. This research will provide a comprehensive understanding of storage, helping to identify stability factors in energy crops and improve best management practices for biomass producers.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Population-level incidence of human papillomavirus–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, by smoking status

Abstract We estimated the population-level incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV)–positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers by smoking status. We combined HPV DNA genotyping data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Cancer Registry Sentinel Surveillance System with data from the Kentucky Cancer Registry and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System across smoking status. During 2004-2005 and 2014-2015 in Kentucky, most cases of oropharyngeal (63.3%), anal (59.7%), and cervical (54.9%) cancer were among individuals who ever smoked. The population-level incidence rate was higher among individuals who ever smoked than among those who never smoked for HPV-positive oropharyngeal (7.8 vs 2.1; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.6), cervical (13.7 vs 6.8; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.0), and anal (3.9 vs 1.6; adjusted incidence rate ratio = 2.5) cancers. These findings indicate that smoking is associated with increased risk of HPV-positive oropharyngeal, cervical, and anal cancers, and the population-level burden of these cancers is higher among individuals who ever smoked.

Oncology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk in Japan: A pooled analysis of eight population‐based cohort studies

Abstract Although alcohol consumption is reported to increase the incidence of breast cancer in European studies, evidence for an association between alcohol and breast cancer in Asian populations is insufficient. We conducted a pooled analysis of eight large‐scale population‐based prospective cohort studies in Japan to evaluate the association between alcohol (both frequency and amount) and breast cancer risk with categorization by menopausal status at baseline and at diagnosis. Estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated in the individual cohorts and combined using random‐effects models. Among 158 164 subjects with 2 369 252 person‐years of follow‐up, 2208 breast cancer cases were newly diagnosed. Alcohol consumption had a significant association with a higher risk of breast cancer in both women who were premenopausal at baseline (regular drinker compared to nondrinker: HR 1.37, 1.04‐1.81, ≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.74, 1.25‐2.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .017) and those who were premenopausal at diagnosis (≥23 g/d compared to 0 g/d: HR 1.89, 1.04‐3.43, P for trend per frequency category: P = .032). In contrast, no significant association was seen in women who were postmenopausal at baseline or at diagnosis, despite a substantial number of subjects and long follow‐up period. Our results revealed that frequent and high alcohol consumption are both risk factors for Asian premenopausal breast cancer, similarly to previous studies in Western countries. The lack of a clear association in postmenopausal women in our study warrants larger investigation in Asia.

Iwase, Madoka↗
DOE OSTI2021

Total Blood Mercury Predicts Methylmercury Exposure in Fish and Shellfish Consumers

Abstract Many studies evaluating methylmercury (MeHg) toxicity rely on whole blood total mercury (THg) measurements to estimate MeHg exposure. However, whole blood THg includes other forms of mercury (Hg), such as inorganic Hg, which have different exposure sources and toxicological effects than MeHg. Therefore, estimating the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio is critical to predicting MeHg exposure and, subsequently, efforts to establish an exposure–response relationship for use in risk assessment. A large, representative dataset (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2016) was used to determine the whole blood MeHg/THg ratio among (a) self-reported fish and shellfish consumers, ≥ 15 years of age (the “full adult” population ( N = 5268 training dataset; N = 2336 test dataset)) and (b) female fish and shellfish consumers, 15–44 years of age (the “women of reproductive age” population ( N = 1285 training dataset; N = 560 test dataset)). Unadjusted and adjusted linear and spline models with direct measurements for both THg and MeHg were evaluated. The mean whole blood MeHg/THg ratio was 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74, 0.75). This ratio was significantly higher among those with higher THg concentrations. All models exhibited excellent fit (adjusted R 2 from 0.957 to 0.982). Performance was slightly improved in spline versus linear models. For the full adult population and women of reproductive age, the unadjusted spline model predicted whole blood MeHg concentrations of 5.65 µg/L and 5.55 µg/L, respectively, when the THg concentration was 5.80 µg/L. These results suggest that whole blood THg is a good predictor of whole blood MeHg among fish and shellfish consumers.

Wells, Ellen M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Slow Strain Rate Testing of A537 Tank Wall Material

At Savannah River Site (SRS), High-Level Waste is stored in below-grade carbon steel tanks. This waste in part consists of sludge, salt cake, and/or supernate. Preparation of this waste for future processing involves dissolution of the salt cake layer. The salt dissolution process can create conditions that leave the carbon steel tanks susceptible to localized corrosion. The salt to be dissolved contains high concentrations of nitrate, that once released, create an environment that may be conducive to pitting corrosion and/or stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of carbon steel. The salt dissolution process also liberates interstitial liquid trapped between the salt crystals. This liquid is initially high in nitrite and hydroxide concentration. High pH and greater ratios of nitrite to nitrate act as inhibitors to minimize corrosion of carbon steel in high nitrate environments. However, as dissolution proceeds, the concentration of nitrate will increase, while the hydroxide and nitrite concentration of the interstitial liquid will deplete and become insufficient to prevent the onset of corrosion attack. Tank blending and the addition of inhibitors are used to ensure adequate concentrations of hydroxide and nitrite. However, this is not desirable during salt dissolution as it can reduce process efficiency and increase the amount of waste that needs processing. This testing program was designed to examine the risk of SCC associated with utilizing the pitting factor (PF) and nitrite/nitrate (NO 2 - /NO 3 - ) ratio limits for handling dissolved salt solutions at an elevated temperature in the carbon steel waste tanks. The previously identified limits are a PF of 1.2 and an NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio of 0.15. The results indicate that as long as the NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio exceeds 0.1 and the PF is above approximately 0.8, there is a discernible safety margin between the open circuit potential (OCP) and the critical cracking potential (CCP) observed during applied potential testing. However, this margin, defined by the difference between the OCP and CCP, is relatively narrow, ranging from 0.1 to 0.25 volts. This small margin raises concerns about potential shifts in OCP during waste retrieval operations, which could inadvertently increase the risk of SCC if the OCP approaches or exceeds the CCP. These results confirm that dissolved salt solutions provide a potent chemistry that, under certain conditions, makes carbon steel susceptible to SCC. The next question to consider is the influence these results have on decisions for storage and retrieval of waste from the tanks. For Type III/IIIA waste tanks, the risk of SCC remains very low. First, and most importantly, the post-weld stress relief of the tanks has reduced the residual stress near the welds. Thus, without the stress component, SCC risk is minimized. The material of construction (A537 Carbon steel) for the Type III/IIIA tanks is superior to the steel in its resistance to SCC than the steel that was utilized for the Type I, II, and IV tanks (A285 carbon steel). From a chemistry control standpoint for a Type III/IIIA tank directly involved with handling dissolved salt solutions, the PF and NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio limits may be utilized wherein chemistry control provides an extra layer of defense against SCC. Chemistry control for a Type III/IIIA tank minimizes the risk for a tank that may receive the dissolved salt solution, particularly if that tank is a Type I, II, or IV waste tank. On the other hand, if the dissolved salt solution is handled by a Type I, II, or IV waste tank the risk of SCC is real. The potent chemistry, absence of stress relief, and inferior material result in a condition that is conducive to cracking. Efforts should be made to either avoid transferring waste that may not meet the PF and NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio criteria to one of these tanks or if it is unavoidable, take measures to minimize the consequences of a leak. As shown by these tests, even if the PF and NO 2 - /NO 3 - ratio criteria are met, there is a risk that the tank potential may be disturbed in the positive direction and the risk of SCC increase.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Performance of concrete under accelerated physical salt attack and carbonation

Conventional testing of physical salt attack (PSA) on concrete does not consider concomitant factors that may exist in service and alter the mechanisms and kinetics of PSA. This study adopted a combined testing approach where concrete was concurrently investigated under accelerated PSA and carbonation, simulating elements serving in heavy traffic and industrial zones, while implementing ambient conditions similar to that in geographic locations with previous cases of PSA. Based on the tested mixture design parameters [water-to-binder ratio, cement type, and supplementary cementitious materials], potential performance improvement and risks were identified. Thermal, mineralogical, and microscopy analyses elucidated the co-occurrence of complex degradation processes in concrete subjected to accelerated PSA and carbonation, which were distinctive from that induced by the single-factor PSA exposure. The synoptic results from this study may informatively improve guidance on mixture design of concrete when dual exposure to PSA and carbonation is expected in the field.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collagen Turnover in Relation to Risk Factors and Hemodynamics in Human Intracranial Aneurysms

Determinants for molecular and structural instability, that is, impending growth or rupture, of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remain uncertain. To elucidate this, we endeavored to estimate the actual turnover rates of the main molecular constituent in human IA (collagen) on the basis of radiocarbon ( 14 C) birth dating in relation to IA hemodynamics. Collagen turnover rates in excised human IA samples were calculated using mathematical modeling of 14 C birth dating data of collagen in relation to risk factors and histological markers for collagen maturity/turnover in selected IA. Hemodynamics were simulated using image-based computational fluid dynamics. Correlation, logistic regression, and receiver operating characteristic analyses were performed. Collagen turnover rates were estimated in 46 IA (43 patients); computational fluid dynamics could be performed in 20 IA (20 patients). The mean collagen turnover rate (γ) constituted 126% (±1% error) per year. For patients with arterial hypertension, γ was greater than 2600% annually, whereas γ was distinctly lower with 32% (±1% error) per year for patients without risk factors, such as smoking and hypertension. There was a distinct association between histological presence of rather immature collagen in human IA and the presence of modifiable risk factors. Spatial-temporal averaged wall shear stress predicted rapid collagen turnover (odds ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.0–2.7]). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated a good test accuracy (area under the curve, 0.798 [95% CI, 0.598–0.998]) for average wall shear stress with a threshold ≥4.9 Pa for rapid collagen turnover. Our data indicate that turnover rates and stability of collagen in human IA are strongly associated with the presence of modifiable risk factors and aneurysmal hemodynamics. Finally, these findings underline the importance of strict risk factor modification in patients with unruptured IA. Future should include more detailed risk factor data to establish a more causal understanding of hemodynamics and the rupture risk of individual IA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of extreme weather events and future climate on the radiologically contaminated sites of Enewetak Atoll

Enewetak Atoll underwent 43 historical nuclear tests from 1948 to 1958, including the first hydrogen bomb test, resulting in a substantial nuclear material fallout contaminating the Atoll and the lagoon waters. The radionuclide fallout material deposited in lagoon sediments and land soil will remain for decades to come. With intensifying climate and extreme weather events, the possibility of redistribution of deposited radionuclide material has become a great concern. This study uses a numerical modeling approach to estimate the potential elevated radionuclide concentrations that can be distributed during storm events under current and future climates. We simulated three historical storm scenarios that are most likely to impact Atoll’s environment and remobilize the radionuclide-bound sediments. WRF-ARW was used to reconstruct these storm scenarios under current year (2015) and future year (2090) climates. Storm-induced ocean hydrodynamics conditions were generated using FVCOM. FVCOM-ICM was externally coupled to simulate the fate and transport of radionuclides. Given that the 239 Pu is the largest inventory of the lagoon and Atoll islands, the model results show the highest average 239 Pu concentration that an island may be exposed to is 3.25E-4 Bq/m 3 (becquerel per cubic meters), which is an increase of 84 times the average baseline/existing 239 Pu concentration without the storm conditions. The overall increase in 239 Pu average over all the islands of Atoll is about 20 folds relative to the baseline concentration. Despite the high relative increase ratios, the significantly low activity concentrations may not pose an immediate exposure risk. However, due to the limitations of the study and uncertainties/biases in the historical data used, further research supported by field surveys to better characterize the current contamination level may be needed to make more accurate predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seroprevalence and risk factors for brucellosis amongst livestock and humans in a multi-herd ranch system in Kagera, Tanzania

Background Brucellosis remains a significant health and economic challenge for livestock and humans globally. Despite its public health implications, the factors driving the endemic persistence ofBrucellaat the human-livestock interface in Tanzania remain poorly elucidated. This study aimed to identify the seroprevalence ofBrucellainfection in livestock and humans within a ranching system and determine associated risk factors for disease endemicity. Methods A cross-sectional sero-epidemiological study was conducted in 2023 in Tanzania’s Karagwe District, involving 725 livestock (cattle, goats, sheep) from 10 herds and 112 humans from associated camps. Seroprevalence was assessed using competitive ELISA while epidemiological data were collected via questionnaires. Generalized Linear Models and Contrast Analysis were used to identify risk factors for infection. Results Overall seroprevalence was 34% in livestock and 41% in humans. Goats exhibited the highest prevalence (69.2%), while cattle had the lowest (22.6%). Mixed-species herds (Odds Ratio, OR = 2.96, CI [1.90–4.60]) and small ruminants-only herds (OR = 6.54, CI [3.65–11.72]) showed a significantly higher risk of seropositivity compared to cattle-only herds. Older cattle (OR = 5.23, CI [2.70–10.10]) and lactating females (OR = 2.87, CI [1.78–4.63]) represented significant risks for brucellosis in livestock. In humans, close contact with animals (OR = 7.20, CI [1.97–36.31]) and handling animals during parturition or aborted fetuses (OR = 2.37, CI [1.01–5.58]) were significant risk factors. Notably, no spatial association was found in seroprevalence between herds and nearby human communities. Conclusion The lack of spatial correlation between livestock and human seroprevalence suggests complex transmission dynamics, potentially involving endemic circulation in livestock and human infections from multiple sources of exposure to livestock. This study highlights the need for comprehensive zoonotic risk education and targeted intervention strategies. Further research is crucial to elucidate transmission pathways and improveBrucellainfection control. This includes developing robust methods for identifying infective species and implementing effective strategies to mitigateBrucellainfection in endemic regions.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a diabetes risk score among two populations

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a practical diabetes risk score amongst two heterogenous populations, a working population and a non-working population. Study population 1 (n = 2,089) participated in a large-scale screening program offered to retired workers to discover previously undetected/incipient chronic illness. Study population 2 (n = 3,293) was part of a Colorado worksite wellness program health risk assessment. We assessed the relationship between a continuous diabetes risk score at baseline and development of diabetes in the future using logistic regression. Receiver operating curves and sensitivity/specificity of the models were calculated. Across both study populations, we observed that participants with diabetes at follow-up had higher diabetes risk scores at baseline than participants who did not have diabetes at follow-up. On average, the odds ratio of developing diabetes in the future was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.26–1.50, p < 0.0001) for study population 1 and 1.68 (95% CI: 1.45–1.95, p-value < 0.0001) for study population 2. These findings indicate that the diabetes risk score may be generalizable to diverse individuals, and thus potentially a population level diabetes screening tool. Minimally-invasive diabetes risk scores can aid in the identification of sub-populations of individuals at risk for diabetes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reassessing Hybrid Vigor or Hybrid Dysfunction Using Physiological Trade-Offs in an Endangered Salamander System

Fitness of interspecific hybrids can be higher or lower than that of their parental genotypes, with major ramifications for evolution and conservation. A recent study found that hybrid tiger salamanders had higher metabolic rates than their parental forms. Specifically, the ratio of resting metabolic rate to water loss, which was used as a measure of performance, was greater in hybrids. Recent genetic research showed that over half of the experimental subjects in that study were genetically pure California tiger salamanders (Ambystoma californiense) misclassified as hybrids. We reanalyzed the data using the corrected identification of hybrids and parentals. As expected, updating the classification revealed even stronger evidence for differences between hybrids and parentals. Hybrids had higher resting metabolic rates and greater water loss than parentals. The ratio of resting metabolic rate to water loss was also higher in hybrids. However, we suggest that this ratio might not be a positive measure of salamander performance. Higher metabolic rate means higher energy expenditure, and higher water loss suggests increased risk of desiccation. Both are major challenges for terrestrial amphibians, especially salamanders, which are hypothesized to be low-energy, low-water-loss specialists. Under this hypothesis, the ratio of energy expenditure to water loss is a ratio of two costs rather than a ratio of benefit to cost. While our analyses corroborate and strengthen the previous statistical results, we suggest that high resting metabolic rate is better interpreted as hybrid dysfunction, not vigor. Here, both hypotheses are speculative, and specific research on the fitness effects of these physiological differences is needed to resolve this important ecological question.

Ambystoma californiense↗
DOE OSTI2025

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved PARE (Pressurized Airborne Release Equipment) for Damage Ratio, Airborne Release Fraction and Respirable Fraction Testing (Version 4)

This paper describes an improved version of the PARE (Pressurized Airborne Release Equipment) system (Sutter 1983a and Sutter 1983b and Ballinger et al 1987) for powder venting testing. This effort seeks to improve the accuracy of risk estimation for the venting of pressurized powders and the venting of gases through pressurized powders. This includes experimental measurement for estimating DR (damage ratio), ARF (airborne release fraction) and RF (respirable fraction) quantities. The present study was performed to address previously indicated problematic factors (i.e. noted gaps) (US DOE 1994).

42 ENGINEERING↗