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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrocarbon production reduces natural methane seeps in the Santa Barbara channel

Abundant natural hydrocarbon seepage in the Santa Barbara Channel includes large amounts of gas, mainly methane. Numerous seeps are focused along a faulted anticlinal axis where in 1982 ARCO placed two large (900 m 2 each) steel gas capture tents on the seabed adjacent to Platform Holly. The seep rate into the tent at high tide is about 5 percent less compared with low tide (2m tidal range). An earthquake in 2013 (M = 4.8) did not affect seepage rates into the steel tents, indicating that gas was not released by fault dilation. The CO 2 and H 2 S content of the captured gas are anomalously low compared to typical Holly gas due to bacterial and sea water-gas interaction at the seep tent. Platform Holly production had an overall effect of reducing gas seepage into the tents over time. Wells beneath the tents at 1-km depth had a much greater influence on the seepage rate than more distal wells. The nearby wells had a direct effect on seepage rate when they were put on production (seepage decreased) versus shut in (seepage increased). The response time was within hours, indicating a direct hydraulic connection between the reservoir at 1 km subsea and the seabed. Permeability of the approximate 1-km fault pathway between the reservoir and the seep tent is calculated to be about 3 × 10 -14 m 2 (30 millidarcys). Gradually, the seep rate declined from peak flow in 1990 (4.5×10 4 m 3 dy-1) to less than 7.1×10 3 m 3 dy -1 in 2013. In June of 2013, a horizontal well was completed high on the structural anticline between Platform Holly and directly beneath the seep tents. Within three weeks of turning on this new well, seepage into the tents completely ceased, ending more than 30 years of natural methane seepage captured by the tents.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Extratropical Pathway for the Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Abstract This study investigates the combined impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and extratropical anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) on subseasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity and their physical connections. Our results show that during MJO phases 2–3 (enhanced Indian Ocean convection) and 6–7 (enhanced tropical Pacific convection), there are significant changes in basinwide TC activity. The MJO and AWB collaborate to suppress basinwide TC activity during phases 6–7 but not during phases 2–3. During phases 6–7, when AWB occurs, various TC metrics including hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and rapid intensification probability decrease by ∼50%–80%. Simultaneously, large-scale environmental variables, like vertical wind shear, precipitable water, and sea surface temperatures become extremely unfavorable for TC formation and intensification, compared to periods characterized by suppressed AWB activity during the same MJO phases. Further investigation reveals that AWB events during phases 6–7 occur in concert with the development of a stronger anticyclone in the lower troposphere, which transports more dry, stable extratropical air equatorward, and drives enhanced tropical SST cooling. As a result, individual AWB events in phases 6–7 can disturb the development of surrounding TCs to a greater extent than their phases 2–3 counterparts. The influence of the MJO on AWB over the western subtropical Atlantic can be attributed to the modulation of the convectively forced Rossby wave source over the tropical eastern Pacific. A significant number of Rossby waves initiating from this region during phases 5–6 propagate into the subtropical North Atlantic, preceding the occurrence of AWB events in phases 6–7.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supramolecular dynamic binary complexes with pH and salt-responsive properties for use in unconventional reservoirs

Hydraulic fracturing of unconventional reservoirs has seen a boom in the last century, as a means to fulfill the growing energy demand in the world. The fracturing fluid used in the process plays a substantial role in determining the results. Hence, several research and development efforts have been geared towards developing more sustainable, efficient, and improved fracturing fluids. Herein, we present a dynamic binary complex (DBC) solution, with potential to be useful in the hydraulic fracturing domain. It has a supramolecular structure formed by the self-assembly of low molecular weight viscosifiers (LMWVs) oleic acid and diethylenetriamine into an elongated entangled network under alkaline conditions. With less than 2 wt% constituents dispersed in aqueous solution, a viscous gel that exhibits high viscosities even under shear was formed. Key features include responsiveness to pH and salinity, and a zero-shear viscosity that could be tuned by a factor of ~280 by changing the pH. Furthermore, its viscous properties were more pronounced in the presence of salt. Sand settling tests revealed its potential to hold up sand particles for extended periods of time. In conclusion, this DBC solution system has potential to be utilized as a smart salt-responsive, pH-switchable hydraulic fracturing fluid.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mission Analysis for Marine Renewable Energy to Provide Power for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

The mission of this project was to provide a preliminary feasibility assessment of powering different marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), marine carbon capture, and marine carbon sequestration strategies with marine energy. In this report, carbon capture refers to methods that can separate or capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air or ocean; carbon sequestration refers to methods that store CO 2 obtained by capture methods out of the atmosphere for long periods of time; and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) refers to methods that do both. The project found that mCDR powered by marine energy and offshore wind energy available in the United States could meet global CDR scales needed by 2040 and 2050 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100. Note that this preliminary estimate assumes that it is possible to harvest all the marine and offshore wind resources available in the United States with existing technology options, and it does not account for the power needed for monitoring these methods, as these power needs are not yet well defined and require further research. Additionally, these CDR scales will still require emissions reductions.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a Framework to Understand Transition Metals' Behavior in Euxinic Conditions (Final Technical Report)

This project focuses first and foremost on metal sulfide geochemistry and mineralogy as controlled by a complex matrix of environmental factors. The principal investigator’s group aim to illuminate the metal-sulfide reaction mechanisms, rates, and pathways through systematic experimentation and data collection and analyzing the relationships between the characteristics of the produced metal sulfide solid-phase/aqueous complexes and the environmental factors. This understanding is essential for obtaining a full picture of the complex cycling patterns of single or multi metal species in sulfidic environments ranging from deep-see basins, hydrothermal vents, inland seas, terrestrial water bodies, to engineered remediation systems. The specific goal of this past project was to illuminate the reaction mechanisms and kinetics of metal anions and sulfide in mixed metal cation-metal anion-sulfide systems under various aqueous conditions (which resembled a range of naturally occurring euxinic settings). For the period of this contract, we investigated the molybdenum-iron-sulfide system, with an emphasis on the conditions that caused solid phase formation. We focused on quantifying the mobility/sequestration of molybdenum under each experimental condition and identified the changes of valence states for each involved element (i.e., Mo, Fe, and S) in the precipitate. We also proposed pathways for the electron transfer that occurred in aqueous chemistry. The major analytical tools used for this study include UV-visible light spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and synchrotron-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy (access gained through facility proposals to the Canadian Light Source). The biggest finding of this project was that besides pH, the iron-sulfur chemistry has a dominant control of the thiolation kinetics and subsequent reduction of Mo(VI), which are likely prerequisites of molybdenum sequestration in anoxic conditions. The results have been written up as manuscript by the end of this project (see Phillips et al.). The experimental results of this project may be critical for advancing our understanding of (1) basic chemistry involving transition metals and reduced sulfur species, (2) the validity of certain geochemical proxies, and (3) the stability and evolution of euxinic geochemical environments. It is noted that the basic results obtained through this project also have implications for Mo-S cluster-based catalyst development in inorganic chemistry and materials sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convergent evolution and horizontal gene transfer in Arctic Ocean microalgae

Microbial communities in the world ocean are affected strongly by oceanic circulation, creating characteristic marine biomes. The high connectivity of most of the ocean makes it difficult to disentangle selective retention of colonizing genotypes (with traits suited to biome specific conditions) from evolutionary selection, which would act on founder genotypes over time. The Arctic Ocean is exceptional with limited exchange with other oceans and ice covered since the last ice age. To test whether Arctic microalgal lineages evolved apart from algae in the global ocean, we sequenced four lineages of microalgae isolated from Arctic waters and sea ice. Here we show convergent evolution and highlight geographically limited HGT as an ecological adaptive force in the form of PFAM complements and horizontal acquisition of key adaptive genes. Notably, ice-binding proteins were acquired and horizontally transferred among Arctic strains. A comparison with Tara Oceans metagenomes and metatranscriptomes confirmed mostly Arctic distributions of these IBPs. The phylogeny of Arctic-specific genes indicated that these events were independent of bacterial-sourced HGTs in Antarctic Southern Ocean microalgae.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hidden Production: On the Importance of Pelagic Phytoplankton Blooms Beneath Arctic Sea Ice

Abstract Recent observations suggest that substantial phytoplankton blooms occur under sea ice on Arctic continental shelves during June and July. This is opposed to the traditional view that no significant biomass is produced in sea‐ice covered waters. However, no observational estimates are available on the Arctic‐wide primary production beneath sea ice. Here, using a fully coupled Arctic system model, we estimate that 63%/41% of the total primary production in the central Arctic occurs in waters covered by sea ice that is ≥50%/≥85% concentration. The total primary production there is increasing at a rate of 5.2% per decade during 1980–2018. Increased light transmission, due to the removal of sea ice, more extensive melt ponds, and thinner sea ice, is implicated as the main cause of increasing trends in primary production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mangrove peat and algae leachates elicit rapid and contrasting molecular and microbial responses in coastal waters

Abstract As sea level rises, previously sequestered blue carbon can be exported offshore as particulate or dissolved organic matter where it may be re-mineralized or sequestered. The priming effect, or interactive effects of organic matter turnover with a mixed substrate, is well described in soils, but still debated in aquatic systems. Priming may contribute to enhanced blue carbon re-mineralization in coastal environments. Here we examined mangrove-derived dissolved organic matter turnover in a lab incubation, with leachates from mangrove peat, 13 C-labeled algae, and peat+algae (primed). Particulate and dissolved organic matter were assessed; microbial metatranscriptomes were evaluated; and dissolved organic matter was characterized with high resolution mass spectrometry. Stable isotopes indicated rapid allocation of algal-derived dissolved organic matter into particulate organic matter. The algal treatment had the greatest increase in carbon dioxide, but primed and peat treatments had the greatest loss of dissolved organic carbon, greater RNA concentrations, and similar changes in total carbon dioxide. This suggests that, while total carbon dioxide did not increase under priming conditions, the addition of a peat substrate may promote microbial biomass production relative to carbon dioxide production. This work highlights that more targeted studies investigating the specific mechanisms of priming are necessary to address the molecular and microbial transformations associated with priming in aquatic systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Amplified bottom water acidification rates on the Bering Sea shelf from 1970–2022

The Bering Sea shelf supports a highly productive marine ecosystem that is vulnerable to ocean acidification (OA) due to the cold, carbon-rich waters. Previous observational evidence suggests that bottom waters on the shelf are already seasonally undersaturated with respect to aragonite (i.e. Ω arag <1) and that OA will continue to increase the spatial extent, duration, and intensity of these conditions. Here, we use a regional ocean biogeochemical model to simulate changes in ocean carbon chemistry for the Bering Sea shelf from 1970–2022. Over this timeframe, model results suggest that surface Ω arag decreases by −0.043 per decade and surface pH by −0.014 per decade, comparable to observed global rates of OA. However, bottom water pH decreases at twice the rate of surface pH, while bottom [H + ] decreases at nearly 3 times the rate of surface [H + ]. This amplified bottom water acidification has emerged over the past 25 years and is likely driven by a combination of anthropogenic carbon accumulation and increasing primary productivity and subsurface respiration and remineralization. Due to this enhanced bottom water acidification, the spatial extent of bottom waters with Ω arag <1 has greatly expanded over the past 2 decades, along with pH conditions harmful to red king crab. Interannual variability in surface and bottom Ω arag , pH, and [H + ] has also increased over the past 2 decades, resulting in part from the increased physical climate variability. We also find that the Bering Sea shelf is a net annual carbon sink of 1.1–7.9 Tg C yr −1 , with the range resulting from the difference in the two different atmospheric forcing reanalysis products used. Seasonally, the shelf is a significant carbon sink from April–October but a somewhat weaker carbon source from November–March.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mixing and dilution controls on marine CO 2 removal using alkalinity enhancement

Marine CO 2 removal (CDR) using enhanced-alkalinity seawater discharge was simulated in the estuarine waters of the Salish Sea, Washington, US. The high-alkalinity seawater would be generated using bipolar membrane electrodialysis technology to remove acid and the alkaline stream returned to the sea. Response of the receiving waters was evaluated using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model with biogeochemistry, and carbonate chemistry. Two sites, and two deployment scales, each with enhanced TA of 2997 mmol m -3 and a pH of 9 were simulated. The effects on air-sea CO 2 flux and pH in the near-field as well as over the larger estuary wide domain were assessed. The large-scale deployment (addition of 164 Mmoles TA yr -1 ) in a small embayment (Sequim Bay, 12.5 km 2 ) resulted in removal of 2066 T of CO 2 (45% of total simulated) at rate of 3756 mmol m -2 yr -1 , higher than the 63 mmol m -2 yr -1 required globally to remove 1.0 GT CO 2 yr -1 . It also reduced acidity in the bay, ΔpH ≈ +0.1 pH units, an amount comparable to the historic impacts of anthropogenic acidification in the Salish Sea. The mixing and dilution of added TA with distance from the source results in reduced CDR rates such that comparable amount 2176 T CO 2 yr -1 was removed over >1000 fold larger area of the rest of the model domain. There is the potential for more removal occurring beyond the region modeled. The CDR from reduction of outgassing between October and May accounts for as much as 90% of total CDR simulated. Of the total, only 375 T CO 2 yr -1 (8%) was from the open shelf portion of the model domain. With shallow depths limiting vertical mixing, nearshore estuarine waters may provide a more rapid removal of CO 2 using alkalinity enhancement relative to deeper oceanic sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud Properties and Boundary Layer Stability Above Southern Ocean Sea Ice and Coastal Antarctica

Significant variability in climate predictions originates from the simulated cloud cover over the Southern Ocean. Historically, Southern Ocean cloud and aerosol properties have been less studied than their northern hemisphere counterparts, and cloud-sea-ice interactions over the Southern Ocean also remain largely unexamined. We used data from combined radar, lidar, radiometer, radiosonde, and ERA5 reanalysis profiles to investigate cloud property relationships to cloud temperature, sea-ice concentration, and boundary layer stability. Our findings show correlations between both cloud macrophysical properties and radiative effects and sea-ice concentration, and that the marine atmospheric boundary layer is more stable over higher sea-ice concentrations. Mixed-phase cloud frequency of occurrence was highest over the sea-ice zone at 15%, three times higher than over cold water south of the Antarctic Polar Front. For temperatures greater than –15°C, low-level, single-layer clouds were more likely to precipitate ice if they were coupled to cold-water or sea-ice surfaces than if they were decoupled from these surfaces, with the highest percentage of clouds precipitating ice observed over sea ice. These findings suggest a surface source of ice-nucleating particles at high southern latitudes that increases cloud glaciation probability. We discuss the implications of our results for future studies into the relationship between cloud properties, aerosols, sea ice, and boundary layer stability at high latitudes over the Southern Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

Here we present a modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea—a large and complex estuarine system in the Pacific Northwest that is exposed to extratropical cyclones. A method was developed to systematically identify storm surge events in the Salish Sea based on water level records at four representative tidal gauges in the Salish Sea. The maximum storm surge distribution in the Salish Sea was calculated based on model simulations of 34 major historical storm events from 1980 to 2016. The model simulations were validated by field observations of water level and velocity using a suite of model performance metrics. Model results suggest that the maximum storm surge in the Salish Sea is generally in the range of 0.8 m–1.03 m and is heterogeneous in space. The model results also show a strong north-south gradient with larger surge magnitudes occurring in the north that is primarily caused by the southerly wind in winter months. The sensitivity analysis of wind forcing suggested that storm surge in the Salish Sea is dominated by the remote surge from the Pacific Ocean, and the local wind contributes up to approximately 20% of the surge variability. This paper systematically elucidates storm surge characteristics and potential risk in the Salish Sea.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the circulation, water mass distribution, and nutrient concentrations of the western Chukchi Sea

Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient concentrations, while the most nutrient-rich water enters the Bering Strait on its western side. Towards the Arctic Ocean, the flow of these water masses is subject to strong topographic steering within the Chukchi Sea with volume transport modulated by the wind field. In this contribution, we use data from several sections crossing Herald Canyon collected in 2008 and 2014 together with numerical modelling to investigate the circulation and transport in the western part of the Chukchi Sea. We find that a substantial fraction of water from the Chukchi Sea enters the East Siberian Sea south of Wrangel Island and circulates in an anticyclonic direction around the island. This water then contributes to the high-nutrient waters of Herald Canyon. The bottom of the canyon has the highest nutrient concentrations, likely as a result of addition from the degradation of organic matter at the sediment surface in the East Siberian Sea. The flux of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) and dissolved inorganic carbon in Bering Summer Water and Winter Water is computed by combining hydrographic and nutrient observations with geostrophic transport referenced to lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) and surface drift data. Even if there are some general similarities between the years, there are differences in both the temperature–salinity and nutrient characteristics. To assess these differences, and also to get a wider temporal and spatial view, numerical modelling results are applied. According to model results, high-frequency variability dominates the flow in Herald Canyon. This leads us to conclude that this region needs to be monitored over a longer time frame to deduce the temporal variability and potential trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stream discharge and water quality data for East Fork Poplar Creek beginning 2012

This data note describes 15-min discharge and in situ water quality data at two locations along East Fork Poplar Creek in east Tennessee, USA. Data records include temperature, gauge height, water surface elevation above mean sea level, and volumetric discharge. Water quality measurements include temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen (percent saturation and concentration), turbidity, and less extensive fDOM data at one site. The data records begin in 2012 at one site and 2015 at the second site; monitoring at both sites is ongoing (as of 2021). The goal of this data collection is to improve understanding of watershed functions, hydrologic dynamics, and material flux. The data will contribute to site conceptual and numerical models, exposure and risk evaluation, remediation selection and design, and performance monitoring. The data are publicly available and can be accessed via unique url or DOI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Element Water Content System Instrument Handbook

The SEA Model WCM-2000 multi-element water content system was designed to provide aircraft and wind tunnel users with a single, rugged sensor to simultaneously measure liquid water content (LWC), total water content (TWC), and ice water content (IWC). The instrument consists of four heated stainless steel elements, each with a different shape or size. Each element is directly heated by low-voltage DC current flowing through the element. These elements are maintained at a constant temperature, typically 140°C, by a digital closed-loop control system. Three of the heated elements are exposed directly to the airstream and incoming cloud water. A fourth element, the reference/comp element, is arranged to be exposed to the airflow but not to incoming cloud water. This element is used to establish the “dry power term” that is subtracted from the other three elements’ power readings to establish the measured water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the elevated water vapor signal associated with the free tropospheric biomass burning plume over the southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6-7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume-vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ~5-6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (~6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4

Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.

Krasting, John P. [a NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dy↗