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Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks

Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

Small-Scale Dissipation in Binary-Species Transitional Mixing Layers

Motivated by large eddy simulation (LES) modeling of supercritical turbulent flows, transitional states of databases obtained from direct numerical simulations (DNS) of binary-species supercritical temporal mixing layers were examined to understand the subgrid-scale dissipation, and its variation with filter size. Examination of the DSN-scale domain- averaged dissipation confirms previous findings that, out of the three modes of viscous, temperature and species-mass dissipation, the species-mass dissipation is the main contributor to the total dissipation. The results revealed that the percentage of species-mass by total dissipation is nearly invariant across species systems and initial conditions. This dominance of the species-mass dissipation is due to high-density-gradient magnitude (HDGM) regions populating the flow under the supercritical conditions of the simulations; such regions have also been observed in fully turbulent supercritical flows. The domain average being the result of both the local values and the extent of the HDGM regions, the expectations were that the response to filtering would vary with these flow characteristics. All filtering here is performed in the dissipation range of the Kolmogorov spectrum, at filter sizes from 4 to 16 times the DNS grid spacing. The small-scale (subgrid scale, SGS) dissipation was found by subtracting the filtered-field dissipation from the DNS-field dissipation. In contrast to the DNS dissipation, the SGS dissipation is not necessarily positive; negative values indicate backscatter. Backscatter was shown to be spatially widespread in all modes of dissipation and in the total dissipation (25 to 60 percent of the domain). The maximum magnitude of the negative subgrid- scale dissipation was as much as 17 percent of the maximum positive subgrid- scale dissipation, indicating that, not only is backscatter spatially widespread in these flows, but it is considerable in magnitude and cannot be ignored for the purposes of LES modeling. The Smagorinsky model, for example, is unsuited for modeling SGS fluxes in the LES because it cannot render backscatter. With increased filter size, there is only a modest decrease in the spatial extent of backscatter. The implication is that even at large LES grid spacing, the issue of backscatter and related SGS-flux modeling decisions are unavoidable. As a fraction of the total dissipation, the small-scale dissipation is between 10 and 30 percent of the total dissipation for a filter size that is four times the DNS grid spacing, with all OH cases bunched at 10 percent, and the HN cases spanning 24 30 percent. A scale similarity was found in that the domain-average proportion of each small-scale dissipation mode, with respect to the total small-scale dissipation, is very similar to equivalent results at the DNS scale. With increasing filter size, the proportion of the small-scale dissipation in the dissipation increases substantially, although not quite proportionally. When the filter size increases by four-fold, 52 percent for all OH runs, and 70 percent for HN runs, of the dissipation is contained in the subgrid-scale portion with virtually no dependence on the initial conditions of the DNS. The indications from the dissipation analysis are that modeling efforts in LES of thermodynamically supercritical flows should be focused primarily on mass-flux effects, with temperature and viscous effects being secondary. The analysis also reveals a physical justification for scale-similarity type models, although the suitability of these will need to be confirmed in a posteriori studies.

Bellan, Josette↗

Part 2 of a Computational Study of a Drop-Laden Mixing Layer

This second of three reports on a computational study of a mixing layer laden with evaporating liquid drops presents the evaluation of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) models. The LES models were evaluated on an existing database that had been generated using Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). The DNS method and the database are described in the first report of this series, Part 1 of a Computational Study of a Drop-Laden Mixing Layer (NPO-30719), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No.7 (July 2004), page 59. The LES equations, which are derived by applying a spatial filter to the DNS set, govern the evolution of the larger scales of the flow and can therefore be solved on a coarser grid. Consistent with the reduction in grid points, the DNS drops would be represented by fewer drops, called computational drops in the LES context. The LES equations contain terms that cannot be directly computed on the coarser grid and that must instead be modeled. Two types of models are necessary: (1) those for the filtered source terms representing the effects of drops on the filtered flow field and (2) those for the sub-grid scale (SGS) fluxes arising from filtering the convective terms in the DNS equations. All of the filtered-sourceterm models that were developed were found to overestimate the filtered source terms. For modeling the SGS fluxes, constant-coefficient Smagorinsky, gradient, and scale-similarity models were assessed and calibrated on the DNS database. The Smagorinsky model correlated poorly with the SGS fluxes, whereas the gradient and scale-similarity models were well correlated with the SGS quantities that they represented.

Okongo, Nora↗

Simulation of Oxygen Disintegration and Mixing With Hydrogen or Helium at Supercritical Pressure

The simulation of high-pressure turbulent flows, where the pressure, p, is larger than the critical value, p(sub c), for the species under consideration, is relevant to a wide array of propulsion systems, e.g. gas turbine, diesel, and liquid rocket engines. Most turbulence models, however, have been developed for atmospheric-p turbulent flows. The difference between atmospheric-p and supercritical-p turbulence is that, in the former situation, the coupling between dynamics and thermodynamics is moderate to negligible, but for the latter it is very significant, and can dominate the flow characteristics. The reason for this stems from the mathematical form of the equation of state (EOS), which is the perfect-gas EOS in the former case, and the real-gas EOS in the latter case. For flows at supercritical pressure, p, the large eddy simulation (LES) equations consist of the differential conservation equations coupled with a real-gas EOS. The equations use transport properties that depend on the thermodynamic variables. Compared to previous LES models, the differential equations contain not only the subgrid scale (SGS) fluxes, but also new SGS terms, each denoted as a correction. These additional terms, typically assumed null for atmospheric pressure flows, stem from filtering the differential governing equations, and represent differences between a filtered term and the same term computed as a function of the filtered flow field. In particular, the energy equation contains a heat-flux correction (q-correction) that is the difference between the filtered divergence of the heat flux and the divergence of the heat flux computed as a function of the filtered flow field. In a previous study, there was only partial success in modeling the q-correction term, but in this innovation, success has been achieved by using a different modeling approach. This analysis, based on a temporal mixing layer Direct Numerical Simulation database, shows that the focus in modeling the q-correction should be on reconstructing the primitive variable gradients rather than their coefficients, and proposes the approximate deconvolution model (ADM) as an effective means of flow field reconstruction for LES heat flux calculation. Further, results for a study conducted for temporal mixing layers initially containing oxygen in the lower stream, and hydrogen or helium in the upper stream, show that, for any LES, including SGS-flux models (constant-coefficient Gradient or Scale-Similarity models, dynamic-coefficient Smagorinsky/Yoshizawa or mixed Smagorinsky/Yoshizawa/Gradient models), the inclusion of the q-correction in the LES leads to the theoretical maximum reduction of the SGS heat-flux difference. The remaining error in modeling this new subgrid term is thus irreducible.

Bellan, Josette↗

High Order Numerical Methods for LES of Turbulent Flows with Shocks

Simulation of turbulent flows with shocks employing explicit subgrid-scale (SGS) filtering may encounter a loss of accuracy in the vicinity of a shock. In this work we perform a comparative study of different approaches to reduce this loss of accuracy within the framework of the dynamic Germano SGS model. One of the possible approaches is to apply Harten's subcell resolution procedure to locate and sharpen the shock, and to use a one-sided test filter at the grid points adjacent to the exact shock location. The other considered approach is local disabling of the SGS terms in the vicinity of the shock location. In this study we use a canonical shock-turbulence interaction problem for comparison of the considered modifications of the SGS filtering procedure. For the considered test case both approaches show a similar improvement in the accuracy near the shock.

High Order↗

High Order Numerical Methods for LES of Turbulent Flows with Shocks

Simulation of turbulent flows with shocks employing explicit subgrid-scale (SGS) filtering may encounter a loss of accuracy in the vicinity of a shock. In this work we perform a comparative study of different approaches to reduce this loss of accuracy within the framework of the dynamic Germano SGS model. One of the possible approaches is to apply Harten’s subcell resolution procedure to locate and sharpen the shock, and to use a one-sided test filter at the grid points adjacent to the exact shock location. The other considered approach is local disabling of the SGS terms in the vicinity of the shock location. In this study we use a canonical shock-turbulence interaction problem for comparison of the considered modifications of the SGS filtering procedure. For the considered test case both approaches show a similar improvement in the accuracy near the shock.

LES↗

Droop Control-Based Dispatch of an Islanded Microgrid With Multiple Grid-Forming Sources

Before rotating, fossil fuel-based, synchronous generators (SGs) are phased out, in line with renewable generation goals, grid-forming (GFM) inverters are expected to parallel SGs. Primary droop control allows GFM inverters to share power without communication; however, it is necessary to dispatch GFM inverters and/or SGs with the desired output power for better energy management (e.g., one GFM inverter needs to charge the battery due to a low state of charge). Therefore, this paper develops an analytic approach to dispatching GFM inverters and SGs with the desired output power by shifting the droop intercept up/down while maintaining the same frequency operating point for improved transient stability. This concept is demonstrated through a pure hardware setup with two off-the-shelf inverters and one diesel generator under an islanded microgrid, and we provide insight on the real-world implementation of the proposed concept.

droop control↗

A Case Study in NREL DERMS Asset Management Implementation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Smarter Grid Solutions (SGS) plan to present a case study on their implementation of SGS' Strata Grid Distributed Energy Resource Management System at NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF). The ESIF is one of the nation's premier energy systems integration laboratory facilities focused on development and deployment of clean energy technologies and resilient delivery systems. NREL looked for a DERMS to install at the ESIF that is capable of replicating real world scenarios to control and monitor distributed devices from small residential scale to the grid substation level. The DERMS system demonstrates the use cases of beneficial operation and coordination of modern grid devices, leverage DERs for improved grid planning and operation, demand-side management and customer engagement through bidirectional communication with utilities and energy market operations. The presentation will cover the delivery strategy of NREL and SGS, how the use cases help NREL's research, and NREL and SGS plan to expand the system and use cases.

ARIES↗

A Gradient Based Subgrid-Scale Parameterization for Ocean Mesoscale Eddies

Mesoscale eddies play an important role in transport of heat and biogeochemical tracers in the global ocean circulation. Resolving these energetic eddies, however, is challenging in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) because it requires a horizontal grid spacing of ≲1/8° that is computationally expensive. As a result, we are required to parameterize mesoscale eddy effects on large-scale ocean flows. In this work, we introduce a new subgrid-scale (SGS) model that is developed based on a Taylor series expansion of resolved variables to parameterize subgrid mesoscale eddy transports and momentum fluxes in OGCM. We have performed an a priori study to evaluate the performance of our new gradient model using high-resolution ocean simulations. Our results show that the gradient model well predicts the actual SGS thickness fluxes in the zonal and meridional directions in coarse-resolution simulations with the grid spacing ≳1/4°. The unresolved kinetic energy at the ocean surface is also skillfully estimated. More importantly, unlike current mesoscale eddy parameterizations, which are mainly developed based on an assumption of flat bottom ocean, our new SGS model can capture the structure of unresolved standing meanders at the ocean surface. We have also developed a dynamic procedure for setting in non-dimensional parameters in our new parameterization through a non-ad hoc and tuning-free method. Overall, this work suggests that implementing the gradient model in OGCM can improve the model accuracy with an affordable computational cost in eddy-permitting and non-eddying simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct numerical simulation of supercritical oxy-methane mixing layers with CO 2 substituted counterparts

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of temporally developing, three dimensional, CH 4 /CO 2 , CH 4 /O 2 and CO 2 /O 2 mixing layers, are conducted at a supercritical pressure of 300 atm. To effectively model the supercritical regime, the employed formulation includes the compressible form of the governing equations, the cubic Peng-Robinson equation of state and a generalized formulation for heat and mass flux vectors derived from non-equilibrium thermodynamics and fluctuation theory. A linear inviscid stability analysis is also performed for each case, to determine its most unstable wavelength. Flow visualizations reveal the presence of high density gradient magnitude regions for all three mixing layers, with conditional averages indicating increased presence of heavier fluid species within these regions. No significant departures are observed from perfect gas behavior, with compressibility factors very close to unity for all three mixing cases. Applicability of presumed probability density function methods (PDF) is examined for the three supercritical mixing layers. An a priori analysis is also conducted to investigate various simplifying assumptions employed in modeling various subgrid scale (SGS) flux models. Two additional terms are identified in the large eddy simulations (LES) equations, the gradient of SGS contribution of pressure in the momentum equation and the gradient of SGS contribution of heat flux in energy equation, whose magnitudes are similar and comparable with their respective resolved terms. The performance of the scale similarity model to represent these additional terms is investigated. Lastly, the performance of Smagorinsky, gradient and scale similarity models are also investigated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Isothermal Versus Sensible Cold Storage: A Model-Based Performance Comparison for Pumped Thermal Electricity Storage

Pumped-thermal energy storage (PTES) systems consume and produce electrical energy using thermal storage media as an intermediate stage. PTES lends itself to long-duration energy storage to facilitate high penetration of intermittent electricity generation. This study presents a model-based comparison of two thermal storage types within a PTES system: a conventional, single-phase, stratified water-glycol sensible storage system (SGS), and an ideal isothermal, two-phase heat exchanger that freezes a water reservoir (isothermal heat exchanger (IHEX)). The SGS thermal storage capacity is based on the liquid’s sensible heat change with temperature, whereas the capacity of the IHEX is based on the latent heat of isothermally freezing and melting water. The idealized IHEX modeled here undergoes steady-state melting and freezing (in contrast to transient rates, as observed with ice-on-coil storage). A computational model of a complete PTES system is presented and used to evaluate the PTES system-level performance with each type of cold storage. Compared to SGS-based PTES, under nominal operating conditions, the IHEX-based PTES increased electrical round-trip efficiency from 61% to 82% and increased energy density from 1.13 to 8.09 kWh/m 3 In conclusion, the performance of the PTES configured with IHEX storage was also analyzed under varying operating parameters.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗

Investigation of Techniques for Simulating Communications and Tracking Subsystems on Space Station Freedom

The need to reduce the costs of Space Station Freedom has resulted in a major redesign and downsizing of the Station in general, and its Communications and Tracking (C&T) components in particular. Earlier models and simulations of the C&T Space-to-Ground Subsystem (SGS) in particular are no longer valid. There thus exists a general need for updated, high fidelity simulations of C&T subsystems. This project explored simulation techniques and methods that might be used in developing new simulations of C&T subsystems, including the SGS. Three requirements were placed on the simulations to be developed: (1) they run on IBM PC/XT/AT compatible computers; (2) they be written in Ada as much as possible; and (3) since control and monitoring of the C&T subsystems will involve communication via a MIL-STD-1553B serial bus, that the possibility of commanding the simulator and monitoring its sensors via that bus be included in the design of the simulator. The result of the project is a prototype of a simulation of the Assembly/Contingency Transponder of the SGS, written in Ada, which can be controlled from another PC via a MIL-STD-1553B bus.

Deacetis, Louis A.↗

Large eddy simulations of time-dependent and buoyancy-driven channel flows

The primary goal of this work has been to assess the performance of the dynamic SGS model in the large eddy simulation (LES) of channel flows in a variety of situations, viz., in temporal development of channel flow turned by a transverse pressure gradient and especially in buoyancy-driven turbulent flows such as Rayleigh-Benard and internally heated channel convection. For buoyancy-driven flows, there are additional buoyant terms that are possible in the base models, and one objective has been to determine if the dynamic SGS model results are sensitive to such terms. The ultimate goal is to determine the minimal base model needed in the dynamic SGS model to provide accurate results in flows with more complicated physical features. In addition, a program of direct numerical simulation (DNS) of fully compressible channel convection has been undertaken to determine stratification and compressibility effects. These simulations are intended to provide a comparative base for performing the LES of compressible (or highly stratified, pseudo-compressible) convection at high Reynolds number in the future.

Cabot, William H.↗

A normal stress subgrid-scale eddy viscosity model in large eddy simulation

The Smagorinsky subgrid-scale eddy viscosity model (SGS-EVM) is commonly used in large eddy simulations (LES) to represent the effects of the unresolved scales on the resolved scales. This model is known to be limited because its constant must be optimized in different flows, and it must be modified with a damping function to account for near-wall effects. The recent dynamic model is designed to overcome these limitations but is compositionally intensive as compared to the traditional SGS-EVM. In a recent study using direct numerical simulation data, Horiuti has shown that these drawbacks are due mainly to the use of an improper velocity scale in the SGS-EVM. He also proposed the use of the subgrid-scale normal stress as a new velocity scale that was inspired by a high-order anisotropic representation model. The testing of Horiuti, however, was conducted using DNS data from a low Reynolds number channel flow simulation. It was felt that further testing at higher Reynolds numbers and also using different flows (other than wall-bounded shear flows) were necessary steps needed to establish the validity of the new model. This is the primary motivation of the present study. The objective is to test the new model using DNS databases of high Reynolds number channel and fully developed turbulent mixing layer flows. The use of both channel (wall-bounded) and mixing layer flows is important for the development of accurate LES models because these two flows encompass many characteristic features of complex turbulent flows.

Horiuti, K.↗

Modeling and analysis of selected space station communications and tracking subsystems

The Communications and Tracking System on board Space Station Freedom (SSF) provides space-to-ground, space-to-space, audio, and video communications, as well as tracking data reception and processing services. Each major category of service is provided by a communications subsystem which is controlled and monitored by software. Among these subsystems, the Assembly/Contingency Subsystem (ACS) and the Space-to-Ground Subsystem (SGS) provide communications with the ground via the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) System. The ACS is effectively SSF's command link, while the SGS is primarily intended as the data link for SSF payloads. The research activities of this project focused on the ACS and SGS antenna management algorithms identified in the Flight System Software Requirements (FSSR) documentation, including: (1) software modeling and evaluation of antenna management (positioning) algorithms; and (2) analysis and investigation of selected variables and parameters of these antenna management algorithms i.e., descriptions and definitions of ranges, scopes, and dimensions. In a related activity, to assist those responsible for monitoring the development of this flight system software, a brief summary of software metrics concepts, terms, measures, and uses was prepared.

Richmond, Elmer Raydean↗

Large eddy simulations of compressible turbulent flows

An evaluation of existing models for Large Eddy Simulations (LES) of incompressible turbulent flows has been completed. LES is a computation in which the large, energy-carrying structures to momentum and energy transfer is computed exactly, and only the effect of the smallest scales of turbulence is modeled. That is, the large eddies are computed and the smaller eddies are modeled. The dynamics of the largest eddies are believed to account for most of sound generation and transport properties in a turbulent flow. LES analysis is based on an observation that pressure, velocity, temperature, and other variables are the sum of their large-scale and small-scale parts. For instance, u(i) (velocity) can be written as the sum of bar-u(i) and u(i)-prime, where bar-u(i) is the large-scale and u(i)-prime is the subgrid-scale (SGS). The governing equations for large eddies in compressible flows are obtained after filtering the continuity, momentum, and energy equations, and recasting in terms of Favre averages. The filtering operation maintains only large scales. The effects of the small-scales are present in the governing equations through the SGS stress tensor tau(ij) and SGS heat flux q(i). The mathematical formulation of the Favre-averaged equations of motion for LES is complete.

Porter-Locklear, Freda↗

A Priori Analyses of Three Subgrid-Scale Models for One-Parameter Families of Filters

The decay of isotropic turbulence a compressible flow is examined by direct numerical simulation (DNS). A priori analyses of the DNS data are then performed to evaluate three subgrid-scale (SGS) models for large-eddy simulation (LES): a generalized Smagorinsky model (M1), a stress-similarity model (M2), and a gradient model (M3). The models exploit one-parameter second- or fourth-order filters of Pade type, which permit the cutoff wavenumber k(sub c) to be tuned independently of the grid increment (delta)x. The modeled (M) and exact (E) SGS-stresses are compared component-wise by correlation coefficients of the form C(E,M) computed over the entire three-dimensional fields. In general, M1 correlates poorly against exact stresses (C < 0.2), M3 correlates moderately well (C approx. 0.6), and M2 correlates remarkably well (0.8 < C < 1.0). Specifically, correlations C(E, M2) are high provided the grid and test filters are of the same order. Moreover, the highest correlations (C approx.= 1.0) result whenever the grid and test filters are identical (in both order and cutoff). Finally, present results reveal the exact SGS stresses obtained by grid filters of differing orders to be only moderately well correlated. Thus, in LES the model should not be specified independently of the filter.

Pruett, C. David↗