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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the inconsistency of [C/Fe] abundances and the fractions of carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars among various stellar surveys

Carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars are a unique resource for Galactic archaeology because they probe the properties of the First Stars, early chemical evolution, and binary interactions at very low metallicity. Comparing the fractions and properties of CEMP stars in different Galactic environments can provide us with unique insights into the formation and evolution of the Milky Way halo and its building blocks. In this work, we investigate whether directly comparing fractions of CEMP stars from different literature samples of very metal-poor [Fe/H] < -2.0 stars is valid. We compiled published CEMP fractions and samples of Galactic halo stars from the past 25 years, and find that they are not all consistent with each other. Focusing on giant stars, we find significant differences between various surveys when comparing their trends of [Fe/H] versus [C/Fe] and their distributions of CEMP stars. To test the role of the analysis pipelines for low-resolution spectroscopic samples, we re-analysed giant stars from various surveys with the sspp and ferre pipelines. We found systematic differences in [C/Fe] of ~0.1-0.4 dex, partly independent of degeneracies with the stellar atmospheric parameters. These systematics are likely due to the different pipeline approaches, different assumptions in the employed synthetic grids, and/or the comparison of different evolutionary phases. We conclude that current biases in (the analysis of) very metal-poor samples limit the conclusions one can draw from comparing different surveys. We provide some recommendations and suggestions that will hopefully aid the community to unlock the full potential of CEMP stars for Galactic archaeology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Systematics in asteroseismic modelling: application of a correlated noise model for oscillation frequencies

ABSTRACT The detailed modelling of stellar oscillations is a powerful approach to characterizing stars. However, poor treatment of systematics in theoretical models leads to misinterpretations of stars. Here, we propose a more principled statistical treatment for the systematics to be applied to fitting individual mode frequencies with a typical stellar model grid. We introduce a correlated noise model based on a Gaussian process (GP) kernel to describe the systematics given that mode frequency systematics are expected to be highly correlated. We show that tuning the GP kernel can reproduce general features of frequency variations for changing model input physics and fundamental parameters. Fits with the correlated noise model better recover stellar parameters than traditional methods that either ignore the systematics or treat them as uncorrelated noise.

Li, Tanda (ORCID:0000000163962563)↗

Gravitational Wave Eigenfrequencies from Neutrino-driven Core-collapse Supernovae

Abstract Core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) are predicted to produce gravitational waves (GWs) that may be detectable by Advanced LIGO/Virgo. These GW signals carry information from the heart of these cataclysmic events, where matter reaches nuclear densities. Recent studies have shown that it may be possible to infer the properties of the proto-neutron star (PNS) via GWs generated by hydrodynamic perturbations of the PNS. However, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how these relationships may change with the properties of CCSNe. In this work, we build a self-consistent suite of over 1000 exploding CCSNe from a grid of progenitor masses and metallicities combined with six different nuclear equations of state (EOS). Performing a linear perturbation analysis on each model, we compute the resonant GW frequencies of the PNS, and we motivate a time-agnostic method for identifying characteristic frequencies of the dominant GW emission. From this, we identify two characteristic frequencies, of the early- and late-time signal, that measure the surface gravity of the cold remnant neutron star, and simultaneously constrain the hot nuclear EOS. However, we find that the details of the CCSN model, such as the treatment of gravity or the neutrino transport, and whether it explodes, noticeably change the magnitude and evolution of the PNS eigenfrequencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Second release of the CoRe database of binary neutron star merger waveforms

Abstract We present the second data release of gravitational waveforms from binary neutron star (BNS) merger simulations performed by the Computational Relativity ( CoRe ) collaboration. The current database consists of 254 different BNS configurations and a total of 590 individual numerical-relativity simulations using various grid resolutions. The released waveform data contain the strain and the Weyl curvature multipoles up to ℓ = m = 4 . They span a significant portion of the mass, mass-ratio, spin and eccentricity parameter space and include targeted configurations to the events GW170817 and GW190425. CoRe simulations are performed with 18 different equations of state, seven of which are finite temperature models, and three of which account for non-hadronic degrees of freedom. About half of the released data are computed with high-order hydrodynamics schemes for tens of orbits to merger; the other half is computed with advanced microphysics. We showcase a standard waveform error analysis and discuss the accuracy of the database in terms of faithfulness. We present ready-to-use fitting formulas for equation of state-insensitive relations at merger (e.g. merger frequency), luminosity peak, and post-merger spectrum.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Gemini Planet Imager Spectroscopy of the Dusty Substellar Companion HD 206893 B

We present new near-infrared Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) spectroscopy of HD 206893 B, a substellar companion orbiting within the debris disk of its F5V star. The J, H, K1, and K2 spectra from GPI demonstrate the extraordinarily red colors of the object, confirming it as the reddest substellar object observed to date. The significant flux increase throughout the infrared presents a challenging atmosphere to model with existing grids. Best-fit values vary from 1200 to 1800 K for effective temperature and from 3.0 to 5.0 for log(g), depending on which individual wavelength band is fit and which model suite is applied. The extreme redness of the companion can be partially reconciled by invoking a high-altitude layer of submicron dust particles, similar to dereddening approaches applied to the peculiar red field L dwarf population. However, reconciling the HD 206893 B spectra with even those of the reddest low-gravity L dwarf spectra still requires the contribution of additional atmospheric dust, potentially due to the debris disk environment in which the companion resides. Orbit fitting from 4 yr of astrometric monitoring is consistent with a ∼30 yr period, an orbital inclination of 147°, and a semimajor axis of 10 au, well within the estimated disk inner radius of ∼50 au. As one of a very few substellar companions imaged interior to a circumstellar disk, the properties of this system offer important dynamical constraints on companion–disk interaction and provide a benchmark for substellar and planetary atmospheric study.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Impact of moment-based, energy integrated neutrino transport on microphysics and ejecta in binary neutron star mergers

We present an extensive study of the effects of neutrino transport in three-dimensional general relativistic radiation hydrodynamics (GRHD) simulations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers using our moment-based, energy-integrated neutrino radiation transport (M1) scheme. Here, we consider a total of eight BNS configurations, while varying equation of state models, mass ratios, and grid resolutions, for a total of 16 simulations. We find that M1 neutrino transport is crucial in modeling the local absorption of neutrinos and the deposition of lepton number throughout the medium. We provide an in-depth look at the effects of neutrinos on the fluid dynamics and luminosity during the late inspiral and postmerger phases, the properties of ejecta and outflow, and the postmerger nucleosynthesis. The simulations presented in this work comprise an extensive study of the combined effect of the equation of state and M1 neutrino transport in GRHD simulations of BNS mergers, and establish that the solution provided by our M1 scheme is robust across system properties.

150 ≤ A ≤ 18959 ≤ A ≤ 8990 ≤ A ≤ 149↗

Detection of young (≤20 Myr) stellar populations in apparently quenched low-mass galaxies using red spectral line indices

ABSTRACT We report on the detection of a small contribution (around and below 1 per cent in mass) from young stellar components with ages ≤20 Myr in low-mass galaxies purposely selected from the MaNGA survey to be already-quenched systems. Among the sample of 28 galaxies, 8 of them show signatures of having suffered a very recent burst of star formation. The detection has been done through the analysis of line-strength indices in the red spectral range [5700,8800] Å. The increasing contribution of red supergiants to this red regime is responsible for a deviation of the index measurements with respect to their position within the model grids in the standard spectral range [3600,5700] Å. We demonstrate that a combination of red indices, as well as a qualitative assessment of the mean luminosity-weighted underlying stellar population, is required in order to distinguish between a true superyoung population and other possible causes of this deviation, such as abundance ratio variations. Our result implies that many presumably quenched low-mass galaxies actually contain gas that is triggering some level of star formation. They have, therefore, either accreted external gas, internally recycled enough gas from stellar evolution to trigger new star formation, or they kept a gas reservoir after the harassment or stripping process that quenched them in the first place. Internal processes are favoured since we find no particular trends between our non-quenched galaxies and their environment, although more work is needed to fully discard an external influence.

de Lorenzo-Cáceres, A.↗

Multidimensional low-Mach number time-implicit hydrodynamic simulations of convective helium shell burning in a massive star

A realistic parametrization of convection and convective boundary mixing in conventional stellar evolution codes is still the subject of ongoing research. Furthermore, to improve the current situation, multidimensional hydrodynamic simulations are used to study convection in stellar interiors. Such simulations are numerically challenging, especially for flows at low Mach numbers which are typical for convection during early evolutionary stages. We explore the benefits of using a low-Mach hydrodynamic flux solver and demonstrate its usability for simulations in the astrophysical context. Simulations of convection for a realistic stellar profile are analyzed regarding the properties of convective boundary mixing. The time-implicit Seven-League Hydro (SLH) code was used to perform multidimensional simulations of convective helium shell burning based on a 25 M ⊙ star model. The results obtained with the low-Mach AUSM + -up solver were compared to results when using its non low-Mach variant AUSM B + -up. We applied well-balancing of the gravitational source term to maintain the initial hydrostatic background stratification. The computational grids have resolutions ranging from 180 × 90 2 to 810 × 540 2 cells and the nuclear energy release was boosted by factors of 3 × 10 3 , 1 × 10 4 , and 3 × 10 4 to study the dependence of the results on these parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hydrodynamic simulations of white dwarf–white dwarf mergers and the origin of R Coronae Borealis stars

We study the properties of double white dwarf (DWD) mergers by performing hydrodynamic simulations using the new and improved adaptive mesh refinement code OCTO-TIGER. We follow the orbital evolution of DWD systems of mass ratio $q=0.7$ for tens of orbits until and after the merger to investigate them as a possible origin for R Coronae Borealis (RCB) type stars. We reproduce previous results, finding that during the merger, the helium WD donor star is tidally disrupted within 20–80 min since the beginning of the simulation onto the accretor carbon–oxygen WD, creating a high temperature shell around the accretor. We investigate the possible helium burning in this shell and the merged object’s general structure. Specifically, we are interested in the amount of oxygen-16 dredged-up from the accretor to the hot shell and the amount of oxygen-18 produced. This is critical as the discovery of very low oxygen-16 to oxygen-18 ratios in RCB stars pointed out the merger scenario as a favourable explanation for their origin. A small amount of hydrogen in the donor may help keep the oxygen-16 to oxygen-18 ratios within observational bounds, even if moderate dredge-up from the accretor occurs. In addition, we perform a resolution study to reconcile the difference found in the amount of oxygen-16 dredge-up between smoothed-particle hydrodynamics and grid-based simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Kilonova Luminosity Function Constraints Based on Zwicky Transient Facility Searches for 13 Neutron Star Merger Triggers during O3

We present a systematic search for optical counterparts to 13 gravitational wave (GW) triggers involving at least one neutron star during LIGO/Virgo's third observing run (O3). We searched binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) merger localizations with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and undertook follow-up with the Global Relay of Observatories Watching Transients Happen (GROWTH) collaboration. The GW triggers had a median localization area of 4480 deg 2 , a median distance of 267 Mpc, and false-alarm rates ranging from 1.5 to 10 -25 yr -1 . The ZTF coverage in the g and r bands had a median enclosed probability of 39%, median depth of 20.8 mag, and median time lag between merger and the start of observations of 1.5 hr. The O3 follow-up by the GROWTH team comprised 340 UltraViolet/Optical/InfraRed (UVOIR) photometric points, 64 OIR spectra, and three radio images using 17 different telescopes. We find no promising kilonovae (radioactivity-powered counterparts), and we show how to convert the upper limits to constrain the underlying kilonova luminosity function. Initially, we assume that all GW triggers are bona fide astrophysical events regardless of false-alarm rate and that kilonovae accompanying BNS and NSBH mergers are drawn from a common population; later, we relax these assumptions. Assuming that all kilonovae are at least as luminous as the discovery magnitude of GW170817 (-16.1 mag), we calculate that our joint probability of detecting zero kilonovae is only 4.2%. If we assume that all kilonovae are brighter than-16.6 mag (the extrapolated peak magnitude of GW170817) and fade at a rate of 1 mag day -1 (similar to GW170817), the joint probability of zero detections is 7%. If we separate the NSBH and BNS populations based on the online classifications, the joint probability of zero detections, assuming all kilonovae are brighter than -16.6 mag, is 9.7% for NSBH and 7.9% for BNS mergers. Moreover, no more than <57% (<89%) of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag assuming flat evolution (fading by 1 mag day -1 ) at the 90% confidence level. If we further take into account the online terrestrial probability for each GW trigger, we find that no more than <68% of putative kilonovae could be brighter than -16.6 mag. Comparing to model grids, we find that some kilonovae must have M ej < 0.03 M ⊙ , X lan > 10 -4 , or φ > 30° to be consistent with our limits. We look forward to searches in the fourth GW observing run; even 17 neutron star mergers with only 50% coverage to a depth of-16 mag would constrain the maximum fraction of bright kilonovae to <25%.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Is Betelgeuse the Outcome of a Past Merger?

We explore the possibility that the star α Orionis (Betelgeuse) is the outcome of a merger that occurred in a low-mass-ratio (q= $\mathcal{M}$ 2 /$\mathcal{M}$ 1 = 0.07–0.25) binary system some time in the past hundreds of thousands of years. To that goal, we present a simple analytical model to approximate the perturbed internal structure of a post-merger object following the coalescence of a secondary in the mass range 1–4 M ⊙ into the envelope of a 15–17 M ⊙ primary. We then compute the long-term evolution of post-merger objects for a grid of initial conditions and make predictions about their surface properties for evolutionary stages that are consistent with the observed location of Betelgeuse in the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram. We find that if a merger occurred after the end of the primary’s main-sequence phase, while it was expanding toward becoming a red supergiant star and typically with radius ∼200–300 R ⊙ , then its envelope is spun up to values that remain in a range consistent with Betelgeuse observations for thousands of years of evolution. We argue that the best scenario that can explain both the fast rotation of Betelgeuse and its observed large space velocity is one where a binary was dynamically ejected by its parent cluster a few million years ago and then subsequently merged. An alternative scenario in which the progenitor of Betelgeuse was spun up by accretion in a binary and released by the supernova explosion of the companion requires a finely tuned set of conditions but cannot be ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

ENERGY STAR Residential Water Heater Specification and Test Method for Connected Residential Water Heaters

Electric water heaters have long been used as a tool for demand response due to their inherent thermal storage and large electric load. Traditionally, electric water heaters have been controlled by external load control switches, but that type of control does not work well with more efficient heat pump water heaters and cannot ensure that consumers have adequate hot water. Water heater manufacturers are adding more sophisticated controls that allow utilities or consumers to control their water heaters in new ways that can provide demand response without impacting consumer comfort. Further, the electric utility grid has seen a rapid increase the availability of renewable energy, which, depending on the type of renewable energy, can provide large amounts of energy for a portion of the day, but reduced or no energy at other times. In response to these advances in controls, availability of periodic renewable energy, and in an effort to have a standard which can be applied at a national level, ENERGY STAR and the Department of Energy have developed a Product Specification and Test Method for Connected Residential Water Heaters. In this session, we will discuss the new specification and test method, as well as show some initial results from running the new test method with two different HPWHs at NREL.

connected water heater↗

Atmospheric Transmission Spectroscopy of Hot Jupiter KELT-10b using Synthetic Telluric Correction Software

High-resolution spectroscopic visible data were obtained with the Ultraviolet and Visible Echelle Spectrograph on the Very Large Telescope. Our goal was to analyze the data in an effort to detect the presence of sodium in the atmosphere of hot Jupiter exoplanet KELT-10b, as well as characterize the orbit of the planet via the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. Eighty spectra were collected during a single transit of KELT-10b. After standard spectroscopic calibration using ESO-Reflex, the synthetic telluric modeling software molecfit was applied to remove terrestrial atmospheric effects, and to refine the wavelength calibration. Sodium is recognized by its characteristic absorption doublet located at 5895.924 and 5889.951 Å, which can be seen in the planet atmosphere transmission spectrum and through excess absorption during the transit. The radial velocity of the host star was analyzed by measuring the average shift of absorption features from spectrum to spectrum. Our results indicate a sodium detection in the planet transmission spectrum with a line contrast of 0.66% and 0.43% ± 0.09% for the sodium DII and DI lines, respectively. Excess absorption measurements agree to within one half combined standard deviation between the planet transmission spectrum (0.143% ± 0.020%, a 7σ detection) and during the time series (0.124% ± 0.034%, a 3.6σ detection) in a band 1.25 Å wide. The wavelength grid corrections provided by molecfit were insufficient to determine radial velocities and measure the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

From hydrogen to helium: the spectral evolution of white dwarfs as evidence for convective mixing

ABSTRACT We present a study of the hypothesis that white dwarfs undergo a spectral change from hydrogen- to helium-dominated atmospheres using a volume-limited photometric sample drawn from the Gaia-DR2 catalogue, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), and the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX). We exploit the strength of the Balmer jump in hydrogen-atmosphere DA white dwarfs to separate them from helium-dominated objects in SDSS colour space. Across the effective temperature range from 20 000 to 9000 K, we find that 22 per cent of white dwarfs will undergo a spectral change, with no spectral evolution being ruled out at 5σ. The most likely explanation is that the increase in He-rich objects is caused by the convective mixing of DA stars with thin hydrogen layers, in which helium is dredged up from deeper layers by a surface hydrogen convection zone. The rate of change in the fraction of He-rich objects as a function of temperature, coupled with a recent grid of 3D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of convective DA white dwarfs – which include the full overshoot region – lead to a discussion on the distribution of total hydrogen mass in white dwarfs. We find that 60 per cent of white dwarfs must have a hydrogen mass larger than MH/MWD = 10−10, another 25 per cent have masses in the range MH/MWD = 10−14–10−10, and 15 per cent have less hydrogen than MH/MWD = 10−14. These results have implications for white dwarf asteroseismology, stellar evolution through the asymptotic giant branch and accretion of planetesimals on to white dwarfs.

Cunningham, Tim↗

Towards a self-consistent model of the convective core boundary in upper main sequence stars: I. 2.5D and 3D simulations

There is strong observational evidence that the convective cores of intermediate-mass and massive main sequence stars are substantially larger than those predicted by standard stellar-evolution models. However, it is unclear what physical processes cause this phenomenon or how to predict the extent and stratification of stellar convective boundary layers. Convective penetration is a thermal-timescale process that is likely to be particularly relevant during the slow evolution on the main sequence. We use our low-Mach-number S EVEN -L EAGUE H YDRO code to study this process in 2.5D and 3D geometries. Starting with a chemically homogeneous model of a 15 M ⊙ zero-age main sequence star, we construct a series of simulations with the luminosity increased and opacity decreased by the same factor, ranging from 10 3 to 10 6 . After reaching thermal equilibrium, all of our models show a clear penetration layer; its thickness becomes statistically constant in time and it is shown to converge upon grid refinement. The penetration layer becomes nearly adiabatic with a steep transition to a radiative stratification in simulations at the lower end of our luminosity range. This structure corresponds to the adiabatic ‘step overshoot’ model often employed in stellar-evolution calculations. The simulations with the highest and lowest luminosity differ by less than a factor of two in the penetration distance. The high computational cost of 3D simulations makes our current 3D data set rather sparse. Depending on how we extrapolate the 3D data to the actual luminosity of the initial stellar model, we obtain penetration distances ranging from 0.09 to 0.44 pressure scale heights, which is broadly compatible with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Joint Survey Processing. II. Stellar Proper Motions in the COSMOS Field from Hubble Space Telescope ACS and Subaru Telescope HSC Observations

We analyze stellar proper motions in the COSMOS field to assess the presence of bulk motions. At bright magnitudes (G-band 18.5–20.76 AB), we use the proper motions of 1010 stars in the Gaia DR2 catalog. At the faint end, we compute proper motions of 11,519 pointlike objects at i-band magnitudes 19–25 AB using Hubble ACS and Subaru HSC data, which span two epochs about 11 yr apart. In order to measure these proper motions with unprecedented accuracy at faint magnitudes, we developed a foundational set of astrometric tools that will be required for joint survey processing of data from the next generation of optical/infrared surveys. The astrometric grids of Hubble ACS and Subaru HSC mosaics were corrected at the catalog level using proper motion–propagated and parallax-corrected Gaia DR2 sources. These astrometric corrections were verified using compact extragalactic sources. Upon comparison of our measured proper motions with Gaia DR2, we estimate the uncertainties in our measurements to be ~2–3 mas yr –1 axis –1 , down to 25.5 AB mag. We correct proper motions for the mean motion of the Sun, and we find that late-type main-sequence stars predominantly in the thin disk in the COSMOS field have space velocities mainly toward the Galactic center. We detect candidate high-velocity (≥220 km s –1 ) stars, six of them at ~0.4–6 kpc, from the Gaia sample, and five of them at ~20 kpc, from the faint star HSC and ACS sample. The sources from the faint star sample may be candidate halo members of the Sangarius stream.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗