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DOE OSTI2020

A Computational-experimental Study to Simulate Mixing and Thermal Stratification in SFRs

This NEUP project 16-10579 entitled “A Computational-Experimental Study to Simulate Mixing and Thermal Stratification in SFRs”, has investigated important phenomena of thermal stratification and mixing in Sodium-cooled Faster reactors (SFRs). A liquid metal experimental set-up was built at Kansas State University to generate high fidelity experimental data and validate computational models. The scope of the work involved - scaled down design of experimental facility, construction and commissioning of the new facility, conducting thermal-hydraulics experiments relevant to the physics of thermal stratification and mixing in the plena, developing 3D CFD models of the experiments, developing SAS4A/SASSYS-1 system model of the liquid metal experimental facility , survey of previous data in literature on stratification experiments and recommendations for improved models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark Specification for Select Experiments Conducted at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Thermal Stratification Test Facility

The Department of Energy (DOE)-Nuclear Energy University Programs (NEUP) supported the creation and operation of the Thermal Stratification Test Facility (TSTF) at the University of Wisconsin Madison (UWM) as part of a larger effort to understand thermal stratification behavior in liquid-metal-cooled reactors. The TSTF was designed to simulate transients in a reactor plenum that are known to cause thermal stratification. High-reliability and high-resolution measurements of the flow and temperature were collected for use as experimental benchmarks to support validation efforts for computational models. The results of these tests contribute to the greater understanding of thermal stratification behavior of liquid sodium under various configurations and operating conditions. The six TSTF tests selected for benchmarking are a set of forced circulation tests at a fixed flow rate with different Upper Internal Structure (UIS) configurations in the test section (no UIS, solid UIS, and a UIS with flow area of 4, 8, 12, and 100%). This report provides a complete description of the benchmark problems, including all key test facility details, descriptions of each test condition, and measured data for comparison with modeled results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fuel Stratification Effects on Gasoline Compression Ignition with a Regular-Grade Gasoline on a Single-Cylinder Medium-Duty Diesel Engine at Low Load

Prior research studies have investigated a wide variety of gasoline compression ignition (GCI) injection strategies and the resulting fuel stratification levels to maintain control over the combustion phasing, duration, and heat release rate. Previous GCI research at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory has shown that for a combustion mode with a low degree of fuel stratification, called “partial fuel stratification” (PFS), gasoline range fuels with anti-knock index values in the range of regular-grade gasoline (~87 anti-knock index or higher) provides very little controllability over the timing of combustion without significant boost pressures. On the contrary, heavy fuel stratification (HFS) provides control over combustion phasing but has challenges achieving low temperature combustion operation, which has the benefits of low NOX and soot emissions, because of the air handling burdens associated with the required high exhaust gas recirculation rates. Furthermore, this work investigates HFS and PFS combustion, efficiency, and emissions performance on a single-cylinder, medium-duty engine with a regular-grade gasoline (91 research octane number) at 1,200 rpm, 4.3 bar, and 3.0 nominal gross indicated mean effective pressure operating points with boost levels similar to those in a medium-duty diesel application. Authority of combustion phasing with main injection timing sweeps for HFS and second injection timing sweeps and fuel split sweeps for PFS are shown. In addition, this work is discussed in the context of previous findings with a light-duty diesel platform, and next steps and future direction for this work are presented.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (EP) regulated by increasing stratification and phytoplankton community structure in the CMIP5 models

Abstract. We examine climate change impacts on net primary production (NPP) and export production (sinking particulate flux; EP) with simulations from nine Earth system models (ESMs) performed in the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Global NPP and EP are reduced by the end of the century for the intense warming scenario of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Relative to the 1990s, NPP in the 2090s is reduced by 2–16 % and EP by 7–18 %. The models with the largest increases in stratification (and largest relative declines in NPP and EP) also show the largest positive biases in stratification for the contemporary period, suggesting overestimation of climate change impacts on NPP and EP. All of the CMIP5 models show an increase in stratification in response to surface–ocean warming and freshening, which is accompanied by decreases in surface nutrients, NPP and EP. There is considerable variability across the models in the magnitudes of NPP, EP, surface nutrient concentrations and their perturbations by climate change. The negative response of NPP and EP to increasing stratification reflects primarily a bottom-up control, as upward nutrient flux declines at the global scale. Models with dynamic phytoplankton community structure show larger declines in EP than in NPP. This pattern is driven by phytoplankton community composition shifts, with reductions in productivity by large phytoplankton as smaller phytoplankton (which export less efficiently) are favored under the increasing nutrient stress. Thus, the projections of the NPP response to climate change are critically dependent on the simulated phytoplankton community structure, the efficiency of the biological pump and the resulting levels of regenerated production, which vary widely across the models. Community structure is represented simply in the CMIP5 models, and should be expanded to better capture the spatial patterns and climate-driven changes in export efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Three-dimensional flow model development for thermal mixing and stratification modeling in reactor system transients analyses

Mixing, thermal-stratification, and mass transport phenomena in large pools or enclosures play major roles for the safety of reactor systems. Depending on the fidelity requirement and computational resources, various modeling methods, from the 0-D perfect mixing model to 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, are available. Each is associated with its own advantages and shortcomings. It is very desirable to develop an advanced and efficient thermal mixing and stratification modeling capability embedded in a modern system analysis code to improve the accuracy of reactor safety analyses and to reduce modeling uncertainties. An advanced system analysis tool, SAM, is being developed at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, a reduced-order three-dimensional module is under development to model the mull-dimensional flow and thermal mixing and stratification in large enclosures of reactor systems. This paper provides an overview of the three-dimensional finite element flow model in SAM, including the governing equations, stabilization scheme, and solution methods. Additionally, several verification and validation tests are presented, including lid-driven cavity flow, natural convection inside a cavity, laminar flow in a channel of parallel plates. Here, based on the comparisons with the analytical solutions and experimental results, it is demonstrated that the developed 3-D fluid model can perform very well for a wide range of flow problems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Efficient 1-D Thermal Stratification Model for Pool-Type Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

Investigating thermal stratification in the upper plenum of a sodium fast reactor (SFR) is presently a technology gap in SFR safety analysis. Understanding thermal stratification will promote safe operation of the SFR before its commercial deployment. Stratified layers of liquid sodium with a large vertical temperature gradient could be established in the upper plenum of an SFR during a down-power or a loss-of-flow transient. These stratified layers are unstable and could result in uncertainties for the core safety of an SFR. In order to predict the occurrence of the thermal stratification efficiently, we developed a one-dimensional (1-D) transport model to estimate the temperature profile of the ambient fluid in the upper plenum. This model demands much less computational effort than computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes and provides calculations with higher fidelity than historical system-level codes. Two flow conditions were considered separately in the current study depending on if in-vessel components are presented in the upper plenum. For the condition where in-vessel components, specifically the upper internal structure, are presented, we assumed that the impinging sodium was evenly dispersed in the ambient fluid within the distance between the bottom of the in-vessel component and the jet inlet surface. For the condition where no in-vessel components are presented, we assumed that the impinging sodium was evenly dispersed in the ambient fluid within the jet length, which was determined through data-driven trainings. The newly developed 1-D model showed similar performance with the CFD model in both cases. However, due to the assumption of flat profiles of the impinging jet axial dispersion rate, nonnegligible discrepancies between the 1-D prediction and the measured data were observed.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity Simulation of the Light-to-Dense Stratification Transient in the HiRJET Facility

Density stratification in a large enclosure is a crucial phenomenon to heat transfer and sustainable passive heat removal of a sodium fast reactor during reactivity transients. However, engineering turbulence models were identified to have unsatisfactory performance in predicting propagation of a stratified front. Yet, the scarcity of high-resolution data for stratification hampers the development of models. To explor e applications of leveraging direct numerical simulation (DNS) data to support turbulence model development, this work conducted DNS using NekRS to study a long stratification transient in the High-Resolution Jet (HiRJET) experimental facility. Here, this work considers an experiment run where light fluid is injected into a tank containing a denser fluid with a relative density difference of 1.5%. Formation of the stratified layer is identified as impingement of the buoyant jet promoting mixing of the two fluids. Based on the transient statistics, transport of the concentration can be characterized by regions with dominating effects of turbulent mixing, buoyant dissipation, and molecular diffusion, respectively, as moving away from the elevation of jet impingement. Concentration near the stratified front also exhibits oscillation at Brunt-Väisälä frequency. Preliminary validation of the simulation showed encouraging agreement of the concentration distribution with the reference experiment.

buoyant mixing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gasoline Compression Ignition on a Light-Duty Multi-Cylinder Engine Using a Wide Range of Fuel Reactivities and Heavy Fuel Stratification

Many research studies have focused on utilizing gasoline in modern compression ignition engines to reduce emissions and improve efficiency. Collectively, this combustion mode has become kn+own as gasoline compression ignition (GCI). One of the biggest challenges with GCI operation is maintaining control over the combustion process through the fuel injection strategy, such that the engine can be controlled on a cycle-by-cycle basis. Research studies have investigated a wide variety of GCI injection strategies (i.e., fuel stratification levels) to maintain control over the heat release rate while achieving low-temperature combustion (LTC). This work shows that at loads relevant to light-duty engines, partial fuel stratification (PFS) with gasoline provides very little controllability over the timing of combustion. On the contrary, heavy fuel stratification (HFS) provides very linear and pronounced control over the timing of combustion. However, the HFS strategy has challenges achieving LTC operation due to the air handling burdens associated with the high exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) rates that are required to reduce NOx emissions to near zero levels. In this work, a wide variety of gasoline fuel reactivities (octane numbers ranging from <40 to 87) were investigated to understand the engine performance and emissions of HFS-GCI operation on a multi-cylinder light-duty engine. Overall, the results indicate that over an EGR sweep at 4 bar brake mean effective pressure (BMEP), the gasoline fuels can achieve LTC operation with ultra-low NO x and soot emissions, while conventional diesel combustion (CDC) is unable to simultaneously achieve low NO x and soot. At 10 bar BMEP, all the gasoline fuels were compared to diesel, but using mixing controlled combustion and not LTC.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2013

Temperature Stratification in a Cryogenic Fuel Tank

A reduced dynamical model describing temperature stratification effects driven by natural convection in a liquid hydrogen cryogenic fuel tank has been developed. It accounts for cryogenic propellant loading, storage, and unloading in the conditions of normal, increased, and micro- gravity. The model involves multiple horizontal control volumes in both liquid and ullage spaces. Temperature and velocity boundary layers at the tank walls are taken into account by using correlation relations. Heat exchange involving the tank wall is considered by means of the lumped-parameter method. By employing basic conservation laws, the model takes into consideration the major multi-phase mass and energy exchange processes involved, such as condensation-evaporation of the hydrogen, as well as flows of hydrogen liquid and vapor in the presence of pressurizing helium gas. The model involves a liquid hydrogen feed line and a tank ullage vent valve for pressure control. The temperature stratification effects are investigated, including in the presence of vent valve oscillations. A simulation of temperature stratification effects in a generic cryogenic tank has been implemented in Matlab and results are presented for various tank conditions.

stratification↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implications of Shear and Thermal Stratification on Wind Turbine Tip-Vortex Stability

The interaction between wind turbines in a wind farm through their wakes is a phenomenon that has been studied for decades and is still relevant today. Turbines clustered together in arrays will often operate in the wake of other upstream turbines which may lead to significant power losses and fatigue loads. For modern large-scale wind turbines, the mean shear velocity profile and thermal stratification are major components of the atmospheric boundary layer so it is important to understand their impact on near-wake development. Additionally, veer is present due to the rotation of the Earth. The impact of shear, thermal stratification and veer on the stable wake length of turbines with a dynamic control strategy is studied numerically in this work using a suite of highly resolved large-eddy simulations. Instantaneous flow fields are extracted from the simulations and used to conduct proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and compute the mean kinetic energy fluxes by different POD modes to better understand the tip-vortex instability mechanisms. Our findings show that the dynamic pitch control scheme is able to shorten the stable wake length to about 1.5R in uniform flow. Shear can significantly affect the break up of wind turbine tip-vortices as well as the shape and stable length of the wake, whereas thermal stratification seems to only have limited contribution to the spatial development of the near-wake field. Veer causes the wake boundary to skew but has a limited impact on the wake length.

length thermal stratification↗

DOE OSTI2025

The role of thermal stratification on the co‐spectral properties of momentum transport above an Amazonian forest

The influence of thermal stratification on the turbulent kinetic energy balance has been widely studied; however, its influence on the turbulent stress remains less explored in the presence of tall vegetated canopies and less ideal micrometeorological conditions. Here, the impact of thermal stratification on turbulent momentum flux is considered in the roughness sublayer (RSL) and the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) using the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) in Brazil. A scalewise co‐spectral budget (CSB) model is developed using standard closure schemes for the pressure–velocity decorrelation. The CSB revealed that the co‐spectrum ${F}_{wu}\left({k}_x\right)$ between longitudinal (u') and vertical (w') velocity fluctuations is impacted by the energy spectrum of the vertical velocity ${E}_{ww}\left({k}_x\right)$ and the much less studied longitudinal heat‐flux co‐spectrum ${F}_{u{\theta}_{\mathrm{v}}}\left({k}_x\right)$, where ${\theta}_{\mathrm{v}}^{\prime }$ are temperature fluctuations and ${k}_x$ is the longitudinal wavenumber. Under stable, very stable, and dynamic–convective conditions, the scaling exponent ${F}_{wu}\left({k}_x\right)$ in for the inertial subrange (ISR) scales is dominated by ${F}_{u{\theta}_{\mathrm{v}}}\left({k}_x\right)$ instead of ${E}_{ww}\left({k}_x\right)$. A near ${k}_x^{-7/3}$scaling in ${F}_{u{\theta}_{\mathrm{v}}}\left({k}_x\right)$ robust to large variations in thermal stratification is found, whereas the Kolmogorov ISR scaling for ${E}_{ww}\left({k}_x\right)\sim {k}_x^{-5/3}$ is not found. The scale‐dependent decorrelation time between u' and w' is dominated by ${\epsilon}^{-1/3}{k}_x^{-2/3}$ in the ISR, but is nearly constant for eddies larger than the vertical velocity integral scale, regardless of stability. Implications of these findings for generalized stability correction functions that are based on the turbulent stress budget instead of the turbulent kinetic energy budget are discussed.

canopy turbulence↗

DOE OSTI2018

Stratification during evaporative assembly of multicomponent nanoparticle films

Multicomponent coatings with layers comprising different functionalities are of interest for a variety of applications, including electronic devices, energy storage, and biomaterials. Rather than creating such a film using multiple deposition steps, we explore a single-step method to create such films by varying the particle Peclet numbers, Pe. Our hypothesis, based on recent theoretical descriptions of the stratification process, is that by varying particle size and evaporation rate such that Pe of large and small particles are above and below unity, we can create stratified films of polymeric and inorganic particles. In this paper, we present AFM on the surface composition of films comprising poly(styrene) nanoparticles (diameter 25–90 nm) and silica nanoparticles (diameter 8–14 nm). Previous studies on films containing both inorganic and polymeric particles correspond to large Pe values (e.g., 120–460), while we utilize Pe ~ 0.3–4, enabling us to test theories that have been developed for different regimes of Pe. We demonstrate evidence of stratification and effect of the Pe ratio, although our results agree only qualitatively with theory. Finally, our results also provide validation of recent theoretical descriptions of the film drying process that predict different regimes for large-on-top and small-on-top stratification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Ion species stratification within strong shocks in two-ion plasmas

We report strong collisional shocks in multi-ion plasmas are featured in many environments, with Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) experiments being one prominent example. Recent work [Keenan et al., Phys. Rev. E 96, 053203 (2017)] answered in detail a number of outstanding questions concerning the kinetic structure of steady-state, planar plasma shocks, e.g., the shock width scaling by the Mach number, M. However, it did not discuss shock-driven ion-species stratification (e.g., relative concentration modification and temperature separation). These are important effects since many recent ICF experiments have evaded explanation by standard, single-fluid, radiation-hydrodynamic (rad-hydro) numerical simulations, and shock-driven fuel stratification likely contributes to this discrepancy. Employing the state-of-the-art Vlasov-Fokker-Planck code, iFP, along with multi-ion hydro simulations and semi-analytics, we quantify the ion stratification by planar shocks with the arbitrary Mach number and the relative species concentration for two-ion plasmas in terms of ion mass and charge ratios. In particular, for strong shocks, we find that the structure of the ion temperature separation has a nearly universal character across ion mass and charge ratios. Lastly, we find that the shock fronts are enriched with the lighter ion species and the enrichment scales as M 4 for M»1.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Stratification of drying particle suspensions: Comparison of implicit and explicit solvent simulations

We report that large scale molecular dynamics simulations are used to study drying suspensions of a binary mixture of large and small particles in explicit and implicit solvents. The solvent is first modeled explicitly and then mapped to a uniform viscous medium by matching the diffusion coefficients and the pair correlation functions of the particles. “Small-on-top” stratification of the particles, with an enrichment of the smaller ones at the receding liquid-vapor interface during drying, is observed in both models under the same drying conditions. With the implicit solvent model, we are able to model much thicker films and study the effect of the initial film thickness on the final distribution of particles in the dry film. Laslty, our results show that the degree of stratification is controlled by the Péclet number defined using the initial film thickness as the characteristic length scale. When the Péclet numbers of large and small particles are much larger than 1, the degree of “small-on-top” stratification is first enhanced and then weakens as the Péclet numbers are increased.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of stratification on overshooting and waves atop the convective core of M ⊙ main-sequence stars

As a massive star evolves along the main sequence, its core contracts, leaving behind a stable stratification in helium. We simulate two-dimensional convection in the core at three different stages of evolution of a $5\,\mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$ star, with three different stratifications in helium atop the core. We study the propagation of internal gravity waves in the stably stratified envelope, along with the overshooting length of convective plumes above the convective boundary. We find that the stratification in helium in evolved stars hinders radial motions and effectively shields the radiative envelope against plume penetration. This prevents convective overshooting from being an efficient mixing process in the radiative envelope. In addition, internal gravity waves are less excited in evolved models compared to the zero-age-main-sequence model, and are also more damped in the stratified region above the core. As a result, the wave power is several orders of magnitude lower in mid- and terminal-main-sequence models compared to zero-age-main-sequence stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gasoline Compression Ignition (GCI) on a Light-Duty Multi-Cylinder Engine Using a Wide Range of Fuel Reactivities and Heavy Fuel Stratification

Many research studies have focused on utilizing gasoline in modern compression ignition engines to reduce emissions and improve efficiency. Collectively, this combustion mode has become known as gasoline compression ignition (GCI). One of the biggest challenges with GCI operation is maintaining control over the combustion process through the fuel injection strategy, such that the engine can be controlled on a cycle-by-cycle basis. Research studies have investigated a wide variety of GCI injection strategies (i.e., fuel stratification levels) to maintain control over the heat release rate while achieving low temperature combustion (LTC). This work shows that at loads relevant to light-duty engines, partial fuel stratification (PFS) with gasoline provides very little controllability over the timing of combustion. On the contrary, heavy fuel stratification (HFS) provides very linear and pronounced control over the timing of combustion. However, the HFS strategy has challenges achieving LTC operation due to the air handling burdens associated with the high EGR rates that are required to reduce NOx emissions to near zero levels. In this work, a wide variety of gasoline fuel reactivities (octane numbers ranging from < 40 to 87) were investigated to understand the engine performance and emissions of HFS-GCI operation on a multi-cylinder light-duty engine. The results indicate that over an EGR sweep at 4 bar BMEP, the gasoline fuels can achieve LTC operation with ultra-low NOx and soot emissions, while conventional diesel combustion (CDC) is unable to simultaneously achieve low NOx and soot. At 10 bar BMEP, all the gasoline fuels were compared to diesel, but using mixing controlled combustion and not LTC.

Dempsey, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2018

Final Report on CFD and Thermal-Mechanical Stress Analysis of PWR Surge Line under Transient Condition Thermal Stratification and an Evolutionary Cyclic Plasticity Based Transformative Fatigue Evaluation Approach without Using S~N Curve: Rev. 1

This report presents an evolutionary cyclic plasticity based transformative approach for fatigue evaluation of safety critical components. This approach is generic which can be used not only for the present generation light water reactor components (which is our focus) but also for advanced reactor components. The approach is based on the fundamental concept of time-evolution of progressive fatigue damage rather than the end-of-life data based conventional S~N curve approaches. Series of fatigue tests on 316 stainless steel uniaxial specimens were conducted under strain-controlled and stress-controlled cyclic loading in two different environment such as in-air at 300 °C and PWR coolant water condition at 300 °C. Material models are developed to capture the uniaxial test data and are subsequently programmed into commercially available ABAQUS code to transform the uniaxial material behavior to multiaxial loading domain. The developed evolutionary cyclic-plasticity approach is verified by both analytical and 3D-FE modeling of uniaxial fatigue test specimens. Results show that the developed material models can capture the time-dependence of material hardening and softening with great accuracy. In addition, results show that the material models not only can capture the material behavior under constant amplitude loading but also can capture the load-sequence effect under variable and random amplitude loading. The ANL developed approach is one of its kind, which shows first in the fatigue research community that fatigue evaluation of a component (in our case verified for laboratory scale fatigue test specimens with great accuracy) can be performed for its entire fatigue life, including the hardening and softening behavior, without using a conventional S~N curve based approach. Additionally results are presented related to fatigue evaluation of real reactor components such as of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) surge line (SL), under upset transient conditions. SLs of PWR experience complex thermal stratification due to the mixing of differential temperature flow from hot leg and pressurizer. A detailed parametric study of thermal stratification in SL is performed through both standalone computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis and fluid-structure-interaction based coupled CFD and heat transfer analysis. Results show that the mass flow rate in SL substantially affects the extent of its thermal stratification. The resulting thermal boundaries conditioned are used as inputs for thermal-mechanical stress analysis and component level fatigue evaluation. Fatigue evaluation of SL pipe under example loading conditions was performed using the above-mentioned evolutionary-plasticity based approach and ASME code (for in-air life) and NUREG-6909 (for PWR environment life) based approaches. Results show that the evolutionary plasticity based approach estimate substantially different life compared to the conventional ASME based approach. To show the entirety of the proposed evolutionary fatigue-modeling framework, this report includes the results presented in semi-annual March report (ANL/LWRS-17/01). Sections 2-5 of March report are directly included as Sections 2-5 in this report, without any significant changes. However, Sections 6-9 of this report present the work performed during March-September of 2017. Whereas, Sections 1 and 10 present the organization of this report and the summary and future work, respectively. This report (ANL/LWRS-17/03 Rev. 1) is a slightly revised version of the earlier published report (ANL/LWRS-17/03). In this revised version, some of the results and associated discussion have been corrected/updated.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗