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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Shallow Cloud Populations on Transitions to Deep Convection in the Amazon

Abstract In this study, a pair of convection-permitting (2-km grid spacing), month-long, wet-season Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulations with and without the eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF) scheme are performed for a portion of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon) 2014/15 field campaign period. EDMF produces an ensemble of subgrid-scale convective plumes that evolve in response to the boundary layer meteorological conditions and can develop into shallow clouds. The objective of this study is to determine how different treatments of shallow cumulus clouds (i.e., with and without EDMF) impact the total cloud population and precipitation across the Amazonian rain forest, with emphasis on impacts on the likelihood of shallow-to-deep convection transitions. Results indicate that the large-scale synoptic conditions in the EDMF and control simulations are nearly identical; however, on the local scale their rainfall patterns diverge drastically and the biases decrease in EDMF. The EDMF scheme significantly increases the frequency of shallow clouds, but the frequencies of deep clouds are similar between the simulations. Deep convective clouds are tracked using a cloud-tracking algorithm to examine the impact of shallow cumulus on the surrounding ambient environment where deep convective clouds initiate. Results suggest that a rapid increase of low-level cloudiness acts to cool and moisten the low to midtroposphere during the day, favoring the transition to deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining the Aerosol Effects on Deep Convective Clouds by Considering the Coupling Between Clouds and the Planetary Boundary Layer

Several mechanisms have been proposed for the aerosol invigoration effect. Although their principles are well established, their actual magnitudes and roles in cloud development remain uncertain and debatable. This uncertainty partly stems from observational-based studies, in which it has been challenging to separate the co-variability between aerosols and meteorology. Addressing this problem requires large data samples. To this end, this study employs the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement data set expanding to 16 years (some up to 17 years, compared to 10 years in previous work) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. It also conducts a more careful and rigorous analysis to isolate the influences of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and synoptic patterns to address a previously raised concern. We incorporated a new key process affecting aerosol-cloud interaction: cloud-surface coupling. The state/degree of the coupling relationship turns out to play an important role in the invigoration effect. Our analysis reinforces earlier findings of a robust positive relationship between cloud thickness and aerosol loading across CAPE percentiles—but only under cloud-surface coupled conditions. The increase in cloud thickness with aerosol loading is most pronounced in coupled clouds with high CAPE and bases below 1 km. Coupled clouds with bases below 1 km thicken between 1 and 4 km, depending on the CAPE percentile. Decoupled clouds show no such systematic changes. Synoptic patterns also lead to different strengths of the invigoration effect. Clean and polluted air masses are predominantly associated with northerly and southerly winds, respectively, with a stronger invigoration effect in cleaner air masses.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Properties and Controlling Processes of Aerosol and Cloud Condensation Nuclei in Marine Boundary Layer Over Eastern North Atlantic (Final Report)

Remote marine low cloud systems have large spatial and temporal coverages. Because of their relatively low optical thickness and background aerosol concentrations, marine low clouds are particularly susceptible to perturbations in aerosols associated with anthropogenic emissions. Recent studies show that a large fraction of the global aerosol indirect forcing can be attributed to changes in marine low clouds, despite their relatively long distance from most anthropogenic sources. Currently, there remain large uncertainties in the magnitude of the global aerosol indirect radiative forcing. One major contribution to this large uncertainty derives from poor understanding of the aerosols under natural conditions, the perturbation by anthropogenic emissions, and the processes that drive them. In this project, we took advantage of the comprehensive, multi-dimensional characterization of meteorological parameters, trace gases, aerosol, cloud, and drizzle fields during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) and the long-term measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site on Graciosa Island. By synergistically combining in situ measurements, remote sensing retrievals, and model simulations, we quantified aerosol properties in the ENA, their vertical profiles, and variations with season, synoptic state, and airmass. We investigated key aerosol processes, including entrainment of free troposphere aerosol into marine boundary layer, new particle formation, growth of Aitken mode particles, and the influences of these processes on the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) population in marine boundary layer. The representation of key aerosol processes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was evaluated using the observations. This project has led to 26 publications, which are listed at the end of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Capturing plume behavior in complex terrain: an overview of the Nevada National Security Site Meteorological Experiment (METEX21)

METEX21 was an atmospheric tracer release experiment executed at the Department of Energy’s Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in the southwestern U.S to study terrain-induced wind and thermodynamic conditions that influence local-scale (<5-km) plume transport under varying atmospheric forcing conditions. Meteorological observations were collected using 10-m tall meteorological towers, 2-m tall tripods with 3-d sonic anemometers, a 3-m tall eddy covariance flux tower, Doppler profiling lidars, Doppler scanning lidars, weather-balloon launched radiosondes, and a tethered balloon equipped with wind, temperature, and aerosol sensors at heights up to 800 m. A smoke tracer was released along three transects in the horizontal and vertical directions and observed with video cameras, aerosol sensors and lidars (via aerosol backscatter). The observations showed evidence of large-scale/synoptic transience as well as local-scale upslope and downslope flows, along-axis valley flows, recirculation eddies on leeward slopes, and periods of strong shear and veer aloft. The release days were classified as either synoptically-driven or locally-driven, and a single case day is presented in detail for each. Synoptically-forced days show relatively narrow smoke plumes traveling down the valley from north to south (with the predominant wind direction), with little deviation in transport direction regardless of the elevation or ground locations of the smoke releases, except near the presence of leeside recirculation eddies. Locally-forced days exhibit a wider range of plume behavior due to the combination of thermally-induced valley and slope flows, which are often flowing in different cardinal directions, and wind shear found aloft at higher altitudes and elevations. We saw evidence of smoke lofting on top of the mesas due to strong upslope flows on these days. A major finding of this experiment was the effectiveness of scanning lidars to measure 2-dimensional plume transport out to a 2–3 km distance; much farther than could be visibly observed. METEX21 was the first of three planned tracer experiments at NNSS, and future experiments will incorporate multiple tracers to improve individual plume identification so that finer resolution flow details can be attained from these measurements, as well as deploy a larger suite of meteorological instrumentation, including more temperature profiling data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processes contributing to cloud dissipation and formation events on the North Slope of Alaska

Abstract. Clear-sky periods across the high latitudes have profound impacts on the surface energy budget and lower atmospheric stratification; however an understanding of the atmospheric processes leading to low-level cloud dissipation and formation events is limited. A method to identify clear periods at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, during a 5-year period (2014–2018) is developed. A suite of remote sensing and in situ measurements from the high-latitude observatory are analyzed; we focus on comparing and contrasting atmospheric properties during low-level (below 2 km) cloud dissipation and formation events to understand the processes controlling clear-sky periods. Vertical profiles of lidar backscatter suggest that aerosol presence across the lower atmosphere is relatively invariant during the periods bookending clear conditions, which suggests that a sparsity of aerosol is not frequently a cause for cloud dissipation on the North Slope of Alaska. Further, meteorological analysis indicates two active processes ongoing that appear to support the formation of low clouds after a clear-sky period: namely, horizontal advection, which was dominant in winter and early spring, and quiescent air mass modification, which was dominant in the summer. During summer, the dominant mode of cloud formation is a low cloud or fog layer developing near the surface. This low cloud formation is driven largely by air mass modification under relatively quiescent synoptic conditions. Near-surface aerosol particles concentrations changed by a factor of 2 around summer formation events. Thermodynamic adjustment and increased aerosol presence under quiescent atmospheric conditions are hypothesized as important mechanisms for fog formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-year assessment of the impact of ship-borne radiosonde observations on polar WRF forecasts in the Arctic

Abstract To compensate for the lack of conventional observations over the Arctic Ocean, ship-borne radiosonde observations have been regularly carried out during summer Arctic expeditions and the observed data have been broadcast via the global telecommunication system since 2017. With these data obtained over the data-sparse Arctic Ocean, observing system experiments were carried out using a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system to investigate their effects on analyses and forecasts over the Arctic. The results of verification against reanalysis data reveal: (1) DA effects on analyses and forecasts; (2) the reason for the year-to-year variability of DA effects; and (3) the possible role of upper-level potential vorticity in delayed DA effects. The overall assimilation effects of the extra data on the analyses and forecasts over the Arctic are positive. Initially, the DA effects are the most apparent in the temperature variables in the middle/lower troposphere, which spread to the wind variables in the upper troposphere. The effects decrease with time but reappear after approximately 120 h, even in the 240-h forecasts. The effects on forecasts vary depending on the proximity of the radiosonde observation locations to the high synoptic variability. The upper-level potential vorticity is known to play an important role in the development of Arctic cyclones, and it is suggested as a possible explanation for the delayed DA effects after about 120 h.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convective and Orographic Origins of the Mesoscale Kinetic Energy Spectrum

The mesoscale spectrum describes the distribution of kinetic energy in the Earth's atmosphere between length scales of 10 and 400 km. Since the first observations, the origins of this spectrum have been controversial. At synoptic scales, the spectrum follows a –3 spectral slope, consistent with two-dimensional turbulence theory, but a shallower –5/3 slope was observed at the shorter mesoscales. The cause of the shallower slope remains obscure, illustrating our lack of understanding. Through a novel coarse-graining methodology, we are able to present a spatio-temporal climatology of the spectral slope. We find convection and orography have a shallowing effect and can quantify this using “conditioned spectra.” These are typical spectra for a meteorological condition, obtained by aggregating spectra where the condition holds. This allows the investigation of new relationships, such as that between energy flux and spectral slope. Potential future applications of our methodology include predictability research and model validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation for surface and hub-height wind climatology over North America

Assessing the availability of key wind resources requires augmenting observations to support the implementation of wind energy infrastructure. However, observations are limited, necessitating the development of high-resolution, long-term gridded datasets. This study presents a robust, dynamically downscaled climatological dataset, offering 20 years of hourly wind data at a 4 km spatial resolution across North America, and evaluates its performance against observations, including meteorological towers and automated surface-observing system (ASOS) stations, as well as coarse-resolution reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5)). Results demonstrate that the downscaled high-resolution wind data outperform ERA5 in regions of complex terrain and coastal areas, with improved overlap coefficients for wind data distributions and reduced root mean square errors (RMSEs) for hub-height and near-surface diurnal wind patterns. The downscaled simulation also captures the synoptic drivers of seasonal wind direction patterns reasonably well, indicated by high wind rose similarity indices. This study also provides an analysis of interannual variability, utilizing the dataset's full 20-year period, and model uncertainty, generated by varying model initial conditions and physics parameterizations across 1-year ensemble members, which are key considerations for wind resource assessment in wind farm development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanisms of Low-Level Jet Formation in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Offshore

Abstract Low-level jets (LLJs), in which the wind speed attains a local maximum at low altitudes, have been found to occur in the U.S. mid-Atlantic offshore, a region of active wind energy deployment as of 2023. In contrast to widely studied regions such as the U.S. southern Great Plains and the California coastline, the mechanisms that underlie LLJs in the U.S. mid-Atlantic are poorly understood. This work analyzes floating lidar data from buoys deployed in the New York Bight to understand the characteristics and causes of coastal LLJs in the region. Application of the Hilbert–Huang transform, a frequency analysis technique, to LLJ case studies reveals that mid-Atlantic jets frequently occur during times of adjustment in synoptic-scale motions, such as large-scale temperature and pressure gradients or frontal passages, and that they do not coincide with motions at the native inertial oscillation frequency. Subsequent analysis with theoretical models of inertial oscillation and thermal winds further reveals that these jets can form in the stationary geostrophic wind profile from horizontal temperature gradients alone—in contrast to canonical LLJs, which arise from low-level inertial motions. Here, inertial oscillation can further modulate the intensity and altitude of the wind speed maximum. Statistical evidence indicates that these oscillations arise from stable stratification and the associated frictional decoupling due to warmer air flowing over a cold sea surface during the springtime land–sea breeze. These results improve our conceptual understanding of mid-Atlantic jets and may be used to better predict low-level wind speed maxima. Significance Statement The purpose of this work is to identify and characterize the atmospheric mechanisms that result in an occasional low-level maximum in the wind speed off the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline. Our findings show that these low-level jets form due to horizontal temperature gradients arising from fronts and synoptic systems, as well as from the land–sea breeze that forces warmer air over the cold ocean surface. This work aids predictability of such jets, improves our understanding of this coastal environment, and has implications for future deployment of offshore wind energy in this region.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation

Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermodynamic and kinematic drivers of atmospheric boundary layer stability in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC)

Observations collected during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) provide a detailed description of the impact of thermodynamic and kinematic forcings on atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) stability in the central Arctic. This study reveals that the Arctic ABL is stable and near-neutral with similar frequencies, and strong stability is the most persistent of all stability regimes. MOSAiC radiosonde observations, in conjunction with observations from additional measurement platforms, including a 10 m meteorological tower, ceilometer, microwave radiometer, and radiation station, provide insight into the relationships between atmospheric stability and various atmospheric thermodynamic and kinematic forcings of ABL turbulence and how these relationships differ by season. We found that stronger stability largely occurs in low-wind (i.e., wind speeds are slow), low-radiation (i.e., surface radiative fluxes are minimal) environments; a very shallow mixed ABL forms in low-wind, high-radiation environments; weak stability occurs in high-wind, moderate-radiation environments; and a near-neutral ABL forms in high-wind, high-radiation environments. Surface pressure (a proxy for synoptic staging) partially explains the observed wind speeds for different stability regimes. Cloud frequency and atmospheric moisture contribute to the observed surface radiation budget. Unique to summer, stronger stability may also form when moist air is advected from over the warmer open ocean to over the colder sea ice surface, which decouples the colder near-surface atmosphere from the advected layer, and is identifiable through observations of fog and atmospheric moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observations of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer’s Response to a Solar Eclipse

The atmospheric response to the solar eclipse of 8 April 2024 in North America is investigated with a specific focus on the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL). We leverage measurements collected during the Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), including Doppler lidars, sonic anemometers, and thermodynamic profiler data to investigate the atmospheric response across sites that experienced partial eclipse conditions with nearly 90% obscuration. Using these measurements, we examine eclipse-induced changes in key meteorological parameters, such as temperature, wind speed, and turbulent fluxes. Most previous eclipse studies have been conducted over land, whereas this study provides new observations for both coastal and marine environments, offering additional insight into eclipse-driven variability in the MABL. The findings confirm a notable decrease in downwelling shortwave radiation during the eclipse, which results in rapid cooling of surface air. The temperature reduction ranges from $1.2^\circ \text {C}$ to $1.4^\circ \text {C}$ in coastal regions and from $0.3^\circ \text {C}$ to $0.5^\circ \text {C}$ over the ocean. This analysis suggests that the MABL’s higher thermal inertia compared to coastal regions moderates the temperature decrease during the eclipse. Wind speed exhibits a more complex behavior, as it is influenced by both the MABL and preexisting synoptic conditions. Although a reduction in wind speed is observable up to approximately 140 m above ground level (AGL) at more inland sites, at other locations closer to the coast, this reduction is constrained to the lowest 100 m AGL. Turbulence parameters retrieved from sonic anemometers, such as turbulence kinetic energy, turbulent heat flux, and friction velocity, decrease during the eclipse at coastal sites, accompanied by a brief transition of atmospheric stability from unstable to neutral or weakly stable conditions. For the open-ocean sites, the variability in turbulence statistics and atmospheric stability is minimal during the occurrence of the eclipse.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical and Thermal Forcing for Upslope Flows and Cumulus Convection over the Sierras de Córdoba

Abstract The upslope flow processes affecting the vertical extent of orographic cumulus convection are examined using observations from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Specifically, clear air returns from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) second-generation C-band scanning Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) precipitation radar (CSAPR2) are used to characterize the structure and variability of the ridge-normal (i.e., up/downslope) flow components, which transport mass to the crest of Argentina’s Sierras de Córdoba and contribute to convective initiation. Data are compiled for the entire CACTI period (October–April), including days with clear skies, shallow cumuli, cumulus congestus, and deep convection. To examine shared variability among >70 000 radar scans, we use (i) a principal component analysis (PCA) to isolate modes of variability in the upslope flow and (ii) composite analysis based on convective outcomes, determined from GOES-16 satellite observations. These data are contextualized with observed surface sensible heat fluxes, thermodynamic profiles, and synoptic-scale analysis. Results indicate distinct thermally and mechanically forced upslope flow modes, modulated by diurnal heating and synoptic-scale variations, respectively. In some instances, there is a superposition of thermal and mechanical forcing, yielding either deeper or shallower upslope flow. The composite analyses based on satellite data show that successively deeper convective outcomes are associated with successively deeper upslope flow layers that more readily transport mass to the ridge crest in conjunction with lower lifting condensation levels, facilitating convective initiation. These results help to isolate the forcing mechanisms for orographic convection and thus provide a foundation for parameterizing orographic convective processes in coarse resolution models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Radiative Interactions in Tropical Cyclone Development under Realistic Boundary Conditions

Abstract The impact of radiative interactions on tropical cyclone (TC) climatology is investigated using a global, TC-permitting general circulation model (GCM) with realistic boundary conditions. In this model, synoptic-scale radiative interactions are suppressed by overwriting the model-generated atmospheric radiative cooling rates with their monthly varying climatological values. When radiative interactions are suppressed, the global TC frequency is significantly reduced, indicating that radiative interactions are a critical component of TC development even in the presence of spatially varying boundary conditions. The reduced TC activity is primarily due to a decrease in the frequency of pre-TC synoptic disturbances (“seeds”), whereas the likelihood that the seeds undergo cyclogenesis is less affected. When radiative interactions are suppressed, TC genesis shifts toward coastal regions, whereas TC lysis locations stay almost unchanged; together the distance between genesis and lysis is shortened, reducing TC duration. In a warmer climate, the magnitude of TC reduction from suppressing radiative interactions is diminished due to the larger contribution from latent heat release with increased sea surface temperatures. These results highlight the importance of radiative interactions in modulating the frequency and duration of TCs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energetics of surface melt in West Antarctica

We use reanalysis data and satellite remote sensing of cloud properties to examine how meteorological conditions alter the surface energy balance to cause surface melt that is detectable in satellite passive microwave imagery over West Antarctica. This analysis can detect each of the three primary mechanisms for inducing surface melt at a specific location: thermal blanketing involving sensible heat flux and/or longwave heating by optically thick cloud cover, all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin cloud cover, and föhn winds. We examine case studies over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, which are of interest for ice shelf and ice sheet stability, and over Siple Dome, which is more readily accessible for field work. During January 2015 over Siple Dome we identified a melt event whose origin is an all-wave radiative enhancement by optically thin clouds. During December 2011 over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, we identified a melt event caused mainly by thermal blanketing from optically thick clouds. Over Siple Dome, those same 2011 synoptic conditions yielded a thermal-blanketing-driven melt event that was initiated by an impulse of sensible heat flux and then prolonged by cloud longwave heating. The December 2011 synoptic conditions also generated föhn winds at a location on the Ross Ice Shelf adjacent to the Transantarctic Mountains, and we analyze this case with additional support from automatic weather station data. In contrast, a late-summer thermal blanketing period over Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers during February 2013 showed surface melt initiated by cloud longwave heating and then prolonged by enhanced sensible heat flux. One limitation thus far with this type of analysis involves uncertainties in the cloud optical properties. Nevertheless, with improvements this type of analysis can enable quantitative prediction of atmospheric stress on the vulnerable Antarctic ice shelves in a steadily warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Latent Energy and Snow Fall Speed on a Wintertime Midlatitude Cyclone

This study aimed to understand the impacts of latent energy as well as snow fall speeds on precipitation properties and synoptic-scale storm characteristics of a wintertime midlatitude cyclone. Simulations of a potent winter storm that impacted the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains of the United States in February 2017 were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with latent heating or cooling from individual microphysical processes systematically turned off and fall speeds adjusted by ±50%. Results indicated substantial impacts on the microphysical characteristics of the simulated storm to fall speed, cooling from sublimation, and warming from deposition. The impacts of cooling and warming were manifested as differences in accumulated snowfall. Increased (decreased) fall speeds led to smaller (larger) ice crystals and total mass, resulting in offsetting effects on the precipitation flux, and thus minimal impacts on snowfall and large-scale characteristics of the storm. Warming and cooling associated with deposition and sublimation, respectively, impacted the synoptic-scale dynamics, whereby removing warming from deposition resulted in an increased meridional temperature gradient near the jet stream, thus increasing the jet strength and causing it to be more westerly with less curvature aloft. This in turn limited upper-level divergence, creating a weaker surface low and shifting the precipitation shield southward. The opposite occurred with the removal of latent cooling due to sublimation. This study highlights the potential importance of latent energy associated with ice sublimation and deposition and fall speeds in the larger-scale characteristics of winter storms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Variability in Wind Energy Generation across the Contiguous United States

ERA5 provides high-resolution, high-quality hourly wind speeds at 100 m and is a unique resource for quantifying temporal variability in likely wind-derived power production across the United States. Gross capacity factors (CF) in seven independent system operators (ISOs) are estimated using the location and rated power of each wind turbine, a simplified power curve, and ERA5 output from 1979 to 2018. Excluding the California ISO, the marginal probability of a calm (zero power production) is less than 0.1 in any ERA5 grid cell. When a calm occurs, the mean co-occurrence across wind-turbine-containing grid cells ranges from 0.38 to 0.39 for ISOs in the Midwest and central plains [Midcontinent (or Midwest) ISO (MISO), Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region], increasing to 0.54–0.58 for ISOs in the eastern United States [Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland interconnection (PJM), New York ISO (NYISO), and New England ISO (NEISO)]. Periods with low gross CF have a median duration of ≤6 h, except in California, and are most likely during summer. Additionally, gross CF exhibit highest variance at periods of 1 day in ERCOT and SPP; on synoptic scales in MISO, NEISO, and NYISO; and on interannual time scales in PJM. This implies differences in optimal strategies for ensuring resilience of supply. Theoretical scenarios show adding wind energy capacity near existing wind farms is advantageous even in areas with high existing installed capacity (IC), while expanding into areas with lower IC is more beneficial to reducing ramps and the probability of gross CF falling below 20%. These results emphasize the benefits of large balancing areas and aggregation in reducing wind power variability and the likelihood of wind droughts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗