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Project development and planning for a Pilot Land Data System (PLDS) are discussed. The PLDS supplies basic information, data management, and data processing capabilities to the land research community. Topics on design and implementation, user requirements, and project management are examined. The scenarios developed thusfar are also included.
This paper describes an system of systems or metasystems approach and models developed to help prepare engineering organizations for distributed engineering environments. These changes in engineering enterprises include competition in increasingly global environments; new partnering opportunities caused by advances in information and communication technologies, and virtual collaboration issues associated with dispersed teams. To help address challenges and needs in this environment, a framework is proposed that can be customized and adapted for NASA to assist in improved engineering activities conducted in distributed, enhanced engineering environments. The approach is designed to prepare engineers for such distributed collaborative environments by learning and applying e-engineering methods and tools to a real-world engineering development scenario. The approach consists of two phases: an e-engineering basics phase and e-engineering application phase. The e-engineering basics phase addresses skills required for e-engineering. The e-engineering application phase applies these skills in a distributed collaborative environment to system development projects.
This study examined state-of-the-art mission oriented simulation and its use in human factors research. Guidelines were developed for doing full-mission human factors research on crew member behavior during simulated air transport operations. The existing literature was reviewed. However, interviews with experienced investigators provided the most useful information. The fundamental scientific and practical issues of behavioral research in a simulation environment are discussed. Guidelines are presented for planning, scenario development, and the execution of behavioral research using full-mission simulation in the context of air transport flight operations . Research is recommended to enhance the validity and productivity of full-mission research by: (1) validating the need for high-fidelity simulation of all major elements in the operational environment, (2) improving methods for conducting full-mission research, and (3) examining part-task research on specific problems through the use of vehicles which contain higher levels of abstraction (and lower fidelity) of the operational environment.
Most nations currently involved in human spaceflight, or with such ambitions, believe that space exploration will capture the imagination of our youth resulting in future engineers and scientists, advance technologies which will improve life on earth, increase the knowledge of our solar system, and strengthen bonds and relationships across the globe. The Global Exploration Strategy, published in 2007 by 14 space agencies, eloquently makes this case and presents a vision for space exploration. It argues that in order for space exploration to be sustainable, nations must work together to address the challenges and share the burden of costs. This paper will examine Mars mission scenarios developed by NASA, ESA and other agencies and show resulting conclusions regarding key challenges, needed technologies and associated mission risks. It will discuss the importance of using the International Space Station as a platform for exploration risk reduction and how the global exploration community will develop lunar exploration elements and architectures that enable the long term goal of human missions to Mars. The International Space Station (ISS) is a critical first step both from a technology and capability demonstration point of view, but also from a partnership point of view. There is much work that can be done in low earth orbit for exploration risk reduction. As the current "outpost at the edge of the frontier", the ISS is a place where we can demonstrate certain technologies and capabilities that will substantially reduce the risk of deploying an outpost on the lunar surface and Mars mission scenarios. The ISS partnership is strong and has fulfilled mission needs. Likewise, the partnerships we build on the moon will provide a strong foundation for establishing partnerships for the human Mars missions. On the moon, we build a permanently manned outpost and deploy technologies and capabilities to allow humans to stay for long periods of time. The moon is interesting from a scientific point of view, but it is extremely important for development and demonstration the technologies and capabilities needed for human missions to Mars. This paper will show the logic and strategy for addressing technological, operational and programmatic challenges by using low earth orbit and lunar missions to enable the long term goal of exploration of our solar system.
The results of a Phase 3 study of two Selected Tether Applications in Space (STAIS); deorbit of a Shuttle and launch of an Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), both from the space station using a tether were examined. The study objectives were to: perform a preliminary engineering design, define operational scenarios, develop a common cost model, perform cost benefits analyses, and develop a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Key features of the performance analysis were to identify the net increases in effective Shuttle cargo capability if tethers are used to assist in the deorbit of Shuttles and the launching of the OTVs from the space station and to define deployer system designs required to accomplish these tasks. Deployer concepts were designed and discussed. Operational scenarios, including timelines, for both tethered and nontethered Shuttle and OTV operations at the space station were evaluated. A summary discussion of the Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM) and the results of the cost benefits analysis are presented. Several critical technologies needed to implement tether assisted deployment of payloads are also discussed. Conclusions and recommendations are presented.
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.
Using electric propulsion to deliver materials to lunar orbit for the development and construction of a lunar base was investigated. Because the mass of the base and its life-cycle resupply mass are large, high specific impulse propulsion systems may significantly reduce the transportation system mass and cost. Three electric propulsion technologies (arcjet, ion, and magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) propulsion) were compared with oxygen/hydrogen propulsion for a lunar base development scenario. Detailed estimates of the orbital transfer vehicles' (OTV's) masses and their propellant masses are presented. The fleet sizes for the chemical and electric propulsion systems are estimated. Ion and MPD propulsion systems enable significant launch mass savings over O2/H2 propulsion. Because of the longer trip time required for the low-thrust OTV's, more of them are required to perform the mission model. By offloading the lunar cargo from the manned O2/H2 OTV missions onto the electric propulsion OTV's, a significant reduction of the low Earth orbit (LEO) launch mass is possible over the 19-year base development period.
The paper will review the conceptual development over the last decade of the use of very large spacecraft, i.e., 'platforms', in geostationary orbit. Geostationary platforms were originally conceived as an efficient means of increasing the capacity at a point in the geostationary orbital arc. Also, geostationary platforms have been suggested for mounting very large antennas as will be required for mobile communications, or high power sources as will be required for broadcast services to small terminals. More recently these 'large satellite' platforms were also envisioned as including earth observation and other science payloads. The advent of the Space Station, which can provide a staging base for platform assembly and test in space at low earth orbit prior to launch to geostationary earth orbit, will introduce a new dimension to practical platform design. This paper describes the evolution of concepts for geostationary platforms over the last decade based on both communications and science user scenarios developed worldwide.
The world is changing rapidly. And with it, so are the potential futures for humanity. Many of these potential futures pose hidden threats, while others offer new opportunities for aviation and the broader aerospace community. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, organizations must work to deeply understand these potential future scenarios and uncover any underlying drivers. Organizations will be more equipped and informed when making strategic investment decisions by better understanding these threats, opportunities, and drivers . The future scenarios and their threats and opportunities described in this paper were identified through a series of extensive brainstorming workshops, collectively titled MADNESS (Mapping for Aviation Driven by Needs Emergence and Satiating Society). These workshops engaged NASA civil servants and contractors with diverse backgrounds through a facilitated process of future scenario development and critique. The participants were led through exercises focused on a time horizon spanning from 2022 to 2072 and on problems that aviation might solve and or create during this period. From the broad results, two patterns of critical uncertainty emerged: “availability” (scarcity versus abundance) and “transparency” (openness versus security and privacy). The successful iteration and ideation across the MADNESS workshops also suggests a repeatable mechanism for strategic risk exploration across a variety of NASA and industry stakeholders.
The scope of this report is limited to the following: (1) assessing the feasibility of the assumptions for crew productivity during the intra-vehicular activities and extra-vehicular activities; (2) estimating the appropriate level of automation and robotics to accomplish balanced man-machine, cost-effective operations in space; (3) identifying areas where conceptually different approaches to the use of people and machines can leverage the benefits of the scenarios; and (4) recommending modifications to scenarios or developing new scenarios that will improve the expected benefits. The FY89 special assessments are grouped into the five categories shown in the report. The high level system analyses for Automation & Robotics (A&R) and Human Performance (HP) were performed under the Case Studies Technology Assessment category, whereas the detailed analyses for the critical systems and high leverage development areas were performed under the appropriate operations categories (In-Space Vehicle Operations or Planetary Surface Operations). The analysis activities planned for the Science Operations technology areas were deferred to FY90 studies. The remaining activities such as analytic tool development, graphics/video demonstrations and intelligent communicating systems software architecture were performed under the Simulation & Validations category.
A parametric description of the communication channels required between the user spacecraft to be supported and the user ground data systems is developed. Scenarios of mission models, which reflect a range of free flyers vs space platform usage as well as levels of NASA activity and potential support for military missions, and potential channel requirements which identify: (1) bounds on TDAS forward and return link data communication demand, and (2) the additional demand for providing navigation/tracking support are covered.
The Space Station system baseline concept and various development scenarios that would meet the Space Station design requirements are examined. Consideration is given to the rephrasing of the Space Station assembly process to provide a permanently-manned station with reduced early year funding, resulting in a completed assembly which includes the expected station capabilities. The contents of the baseline concept and the proposed assembly plan are compared. Configurational, functional, and assembly tradeoffs are discussed. The baseline configuration and rephased configurations are illustrated and the flight sequence and launch dates of the rephased assembly sequence are listed.
Recent observations at the magnetopause and of the high-latitude ionosphere suggest that the cusp may be pulzed in nature. Ground-based observations in the dayside auroral oval reveal transient optical features accompanied by bursts of enhanced plasma flow. Also, recent interpretation has shown cusp satellite data to be consistent with a burst of enhanced reconnection. These observations are used to produce a scenario in which both the satellite and ground-based observations can be fitted. The scenario developed is based on the flux transfer event (FTE) models of Southwood et al. (1988) and Scholer (1988) and shows that the signatures, at both low and high altitudes, can be interpreted in terms of FTEs.
We developed scenarios for shallow and deep subsurface cryptic niches for microbial life on Mars. Such habitats could have considerably prolonged the persistence of life on Mars as surface conditions became increasingly inhospitable. The scenarios rely on geothermal hot spots existing below the near or deep subsurface of Mars. Recent advances in the comparatively new field of deep subsurface microbiology have revealed previously unsuspected rich aerobic and anaerobic microbal communities far below the surface of the Earth. Such habitats, protected from the grim surface conditions on Mars, could receive warmth from below and maintain water in its liquid state. In addition, geothermally or volcanically reduced gases percolating from below through a microbiologically active zone could provide the reducing power needed for a closed or semi-closed microbial ecosystem to thrive.
Space development scenarios and the choice of technologies to carry them out depend upon the future social, economic, and political factors. A brief discussion concerning the impact of sociopolitical conditions on space exploration is presented. Some of the topics mentioned include: space weapons/warfare, international cooperation, NASA's Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Program, and superpower rivelry.
In June 1991 work was initiated at MSFC on an end-effector for 'Robotic Assembly of Welded Truss Structures in Space'. The case for welded joint assembly on orbit was discussed in the 1991 SFFP Final Report 'D'. Data drawn from Aerobrake studies (supported by the ISAAC program) allowed the more detailed investigations that accompany a design with relatively concrete goals. This principle guides current efforts to develop scenarios that further demonstrate the utility of welding for space construction and/or repair.
This document presents a second report from the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component of NASA's High-Speed Research Program (HSRP). This document presents a second report from the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) component of NASA's High Speed Research Program (HSRP). Market and technology considerations continue to provide an impetus for high-speed civil transport research. A recent United Nations Environment Program scientific assessment has shown that considerable uncertainty still exists about the possible impact of aircraft on the atmosphere. The AESA was designed to develop the body of scientific knowledge necessary for the evaluation of the impact of stratospheric aircraft on the atmosphere. The first Program report presented the basic objectives and plans for AESA. This second report presents the status of the ongoing research as reported by the principal investigators at the second annual AESA Program meeting in May 1992: Laboratory studies are probing the mechanism responsible for many of the heterogeneous reactions that occur on stratospheric particles. Understanding how the atmosphere redistributes aircraft exhaust is critical to our knowing where the perturbed air will go and for how long it will remain in the stratosphere. The assessment of fleet effects is dependent on the ability to develop scenarios which correctly simulate fleet operations.
As long duration, manned missions to Mars are studied for feasibility, the requirements to maintain a crew for two years in hostile environments while allowing productive and necessary work to occur, quickly becomes a driving force. Based on a mission scenario developed in the Explorations Program Office at the Johnson Space, the Initial Mars Habitat (IMH) explores one solution to providing a six person crew with the necessary hardware, logistics and environment to support a 500 day Martian surface stay. Many key issues drove the development of this initial concept; crew safety, logistics resupply, crew productivity and several critical mission element assumptions such as the limitations of a surface lander. Consideration of expansion beyond the first mission to an enhanced capability base was also integrated into the development of the IMH.